Thank you Intrinzik; I appreciate the advice. I believe the Run Line vs. the ML argument is debatable; especially on a home team (24 outs vs. 27 outs) but I do agree that in the long run betting heavy chalk on the ML will lose. This is simply a side bar for me to break up the long monotonous MLB season. I really enjoy your posts Intrinzik...great post on Blackjack as I recall..very insightful.Betting big favorites on the ML will lose in the end. Better to go with the Run Line if you really like a team that is a big favorite.
Just some advice. Good luck!
Yes; you are correct..and gone to bat with two teams that both had to win in a negative expectation vs. a team that will win this game in this situation 85% of the time. I'm not opposed to wagering on dogs and/or parlaying teams to turn this $1000 into $5000. Keep in mind...I have seven days to do this...stay tuned. Let's see how it all plays out.You could've simply parlayed two +125 dogs and saved yourself 6 days of variance and accumulated big chalk juice.
GL anyway
Yes; you are correct..and gone to bat with two teams that both had to win in a negative expectation vs. a team that will win this game in this situation 85% of the time. I'm not opposed to wagering on dogs and/or parlaying teams to turn this $1000 into $5000. Keep in mind...I have seven days to do this...stay tuned. Let's see how it all plays out.
Thanks for the post Matt...
Matt, no problem..not taking you as being a prick. I believe Boston wins 8.5 times out of 10 in which Dice-K pitches against Sonnanstine...I just do. -300 was an acceptable price in my estimation but it doesn't look like it's going to work out. Let's see how the Mariners and Cubs fare later today. The Cubs are my key team today. BOL to you Matt..."Negative expectation" does not mean what you think it does.
According to my own (very basic) analysis, Boston -300 was a negative expectation bet, although it had a 60%+ (not anywhere close to 85%) chance of winning. Same goes for Atlanta yesterday, which nearly lost (I was on SF).
If TB wins, I'll be up money for these two bets, while you'll be down.
I don't mean to be a prick here, I see what you're trying to do and I wish you success... you just might do it in that short span.
I agree with you...this will not be confined to just Baseball...absolutely not. Of course if the Cubbies lose to the Reds tonight, I'll have $34.78 to turn into 5 dimes..that could be an uphill battle ;-) Thanks for the post..I understand what you are doing, but I think there are better sports to do it with. -300 favorites lose all the time in baseball. Parlaying Chelsea +.5 to ManU +.5 would pay roughly the same and last year they combined lost only 4 times to teams outside the top 4 in a combined 64 games.
You could also take them as Pk instead of +.5 to get a better payout with no additional chance to lose that particular play.