Record: 1-0 Bankroll: $1434.78
Thanks for the words of encouragement. This is not my entire bankroll by any means but just a side dime to see if I can "run it up". The goal is to do this on one week and I will do everything I can to turn the one dime into five dimes in seven days. The Braves were not as strong a play as I thought they would be last night...but a win is a win....onward and upward!
Back later with pick(s).....
A&F
Thanks for the words of encouragement. This is not my entire bankroll by any means but just a side dime to see if I can "run it up". The goal is to do this on one week and I will do everything I can to turn the one dime into five dimes in seven days. The Braves were not as strong a play as I thought they would be last night...but a win is a win....onward and upward!
Back later with pick(s).....
A&F
Thank you Intrinzik; I appreciate the advice. I believe the Run Line vs. the ML argument is debatable; especially on a home team (24 outs vs. 27 outs) but I do agree that in the long run betting heavy chalk on the ML will lose. This is simply a side bar for me to break up the long monotonous MLB season. I really enjoy your posts Intrinzik...great post on Blackjack as I recall..very insightful.
BOL to you...
Yes; you are correct..and gone to bat with two teams that both had to win in a negative expectation vs. a team that will win this game in this situation 85% of the time. I'm not opposed to wagering on dogs and/or parlaying teams to turn this $1000 into $5000. Keep in mind...I have seven days to do this...stay tuned. Let's see how it all plays out.
Thanks for the post Matt...
"Negative expectation" does not mean what you think it does.
According to my own (very basic) analysis, Boston -300 was a negative expectation bet, although it had a 60%+ (not anywhere close to 85%) chance of winning. Same goes for Atlanta yesterday, which nearly lost (I was on SF).
If TB wins, I'll be up money for these two bets, while you'll be down.
I don't mean to be a prick here, I see what you're trying to do and I wish you success... you just might do it in that short span.
Matt, no problem..not taking you as being a prick. I believe Boston wins 8.5 times out of 10 in which Dice-K pitches against Sonnanstine...I just do. -300 was an acceptable price in my estimation but it doesn't look like it's going to work out. Let's see how the Mariners and Cubs fare later today. The Cubs are my key team today. BOL to you Matt...
I understand what you are doing, but I think there are better sports to do it with. -300 favorites lose all the time in baseball. Parlaying Chelsea +.5 to ManU +.5 would pay roughly the same and last year they combined lost only 4 times to teams outside the top 4 in a combined 64 games.
You could also take them as Pk instead of +.5 to get a better payout with no additional chance to lose that particular play.
You could also take them as Pk instead of +.5 to get a better payout with no additional chance to lose that particular play.
