Ben Burns "BLUE CHIP" TOTAL BLOWOUT (EARLY START!)
UNDER cards/brewers
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game Time: 8/16/2007 2:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Cardinals and Brewers to finish UNDER the total. David Bush wasn't particularly effective in his last start, allowing four runs in a 5-4 win at Houston. However, that game still snuck below the total and Bush has always been much better at home. The UNDER is 6-4-1 in his 11 home starts this season, including a 3-1 mark the last four. Note that Bush has also pitched better in the daytime. In six afternoon appearances he has a 3.93 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a low .237 batting average. He'll face Adam Wainwright who has been pitching very well lately. Wainwright has a stellar 2.87 ERA and 1.227 WHIP his last three starts, averaging better than seven innings per outing. After his last start (a complete game hard-luck loss vs. Penny and the Dodgers) resulted in a 2-1 final, Wainwright has now seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 his last eight starts. Wainwright has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and two runs or less in five of those seven games. Note that he's only given up one home run during that entire 7-game span. He'll have the advantage of facing the Brewers for the first time and I look for a well pitched affair that stays below the number.
Ben Burns NL Game of the Week
DODGERS
Game: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Time: 8/16/2007 10:10:00 PM Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers Reason: I'm laying the price with the LA DODGERS. Rodriguez has been great at home all season. However, he's been horrid on the road. Indeed, the Astros southpaw is 1-8 with a terrible 8.16 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. Yes, the Dodgers have been struggling lately. However, they won their last game vs. a left-handed starter (5-4 win vs. the Reds on 8/9) and are still 12-8 their last 20 games against left-handed starters. For the season, the Dodgers are hitting a healthy .286 vs. left-handed starters, while going 19-14. Lowe has been mediocre lately, allowing three runs through six innings last time out. He's fully recovered from a hip injury now though and I expect him to step up with a big performance against a team he has fared well against (2.70 career ERA). The Dodgers broke out of their slump with a victory last night, including two home runs from Russel Martin. Look for them to build off that performance by winning their second straight tonight, salvaging the series split and improving to 8-4 the last 12 times they were a host in this series. *NL game of the week
Ben Burns Main Event
YANKEES
Game: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Game Time: 8/16/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Yankees Reason: I'm laying the price with the NEW YORK YANKEES. Both teams lost yesterday. The schedule favors the home team though as the Yankees played here at home during the afternoon while the Tigers played a road game at Cleveland in the evening. Yes, the Yankees looked brutal against Baltimore. However, they have been MUCH better when facing top tier teams than they have when facing losing teams. In fact, they're 8-1 the last nine times they faced a team with a winning record! They're also a healthy 15-5 the last 20 times they hosted the Tigers. Verlander has better overall stats for the season than does Mussina. However, Mussina has been the better pitcher lately. Verlander is 1-1 with a poor 4.67 ERA and 1.673 WHIP his last three starts, averaging less than six innings per start. Meanwhile, Mussina is 3-0 with a stellar 3.20 ERA and 1.169 WHIP his last three starts, averaging greater than 6 1/2 innings per outing. He's shown picture-perfect control during that stretch too, with 15 K's to 0 walks. While Mussina is 17-5 with a 2.50 career ERA vs. the Tigers, Verlander has an awful 7.84 ERA and 2.130 WHIP in two starts vs. the Yankees. Note that Verlander is one of several Tigers who has been dealing with illness. In fact, Ivan Rodriguez, Placido Polanco and Craig Monroe all sat out of Wednesday's game due to a flu bug. Look for the revenge-minded Yankees (remember last October!) to grab Game 1. *Main Event
Burns' KC/Miami "TOTAL" Blowout *4-0 YTD, 10-1 L11
OVER chiefs/dolphins
Game: Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Time: 8/16/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Chiefs and Dolphins to finish OVER the total. Though it's typically the other way around, the betting public has fallen in love with wagering on the "under" so far this NFL season. That's led to some terrific line value with some of the "overs," including this one. Looking back to Week 2 of the 2006 preseason and we find that the 16 games averaged 36.875 points. Neither of these teams scored points in the first quarter last week and that should make both of them extra motivated to put up points with the first team offense this week. Both teams also should have some highly motivated quarterbacks. Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle are dueling for the starting job in Kansas City. Croyle holds nearly every passing record at Alabama while Huard was 5-3 as a starter for the Chiefs last season. They'll be happy to learn that three of the Dolphins top defenders (Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Keith Traylor) aren't expected to play. Meanwhile, Miami's Trent Green should be eager to prove that the Chiefs made a mistake in allowing him to get away. Green wasn't sharp last week but I expect him to bounce back with a much better effort here. Backups Lemon and Beck were solid, going a combined eight for 11. That helped the final score (18-17) of their win vs. the Jaguars slip over the total. Look for tonight's final combined score to also finish above the low number with the OVER improving to 6-1 the last seven times the Dolphins were coming off a home win of three points or less.
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