I think there may be a way to beat betting horses offshore

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

Not sure it is worth the time and effort but after looking at a few posts on the RX about betting horses I have changed my mind a little. It all boils down to one HUGE point (and I cannot stress the word huge enough).

They don't add the money (from what I understand and I could be wrong) into the the track mutal pools. Being a follower of a few small harness tracks this means everything. Just putting $50 on a horse to win at a small harness track and you crush your odds. Offshore would not effect it.

Now dont get me wrong the track take sucks (but I havent added in the rebate factor either which helps) but if you follow a small (key word) harness track your competition is very weak, I should know I have seen it for nearly 20 years.

You would have to bet to win the majority of the time for a few reasons and it would be a true grind but this would give you your best chance to beat the track. There are so many overlays that you would not effect the odds on because there has been little or no money bet into the REAL track mutal pools.

Has anyone looked into this? The smaller the track the better. I know most here don't like harness racing but like a few have said (myself included) they can still see value on horses there from years of expierence.

I am sure books are making a killing booking horses but I have to believe that this gives is a huge point not talked about enough. It would be like being able to bet more than the max on a football game and they dont EVER move the line on you. Your effecting the odds but your not. Granted you have to be a decent capper and be able to beat the take but if you are than it can be beat.

Would like to hear what other horse players think about this.

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

One point I may not have stressed enough for those that dont follow smaller tracks as how much a $100 win bet KILLS your odds. I know I said it before but I it is way worse than you can imagine if you dont follow smaller harness tracks.

dougstewart · Aug 16, 2007

Well, you still have to pick winners, but I would say if you're going to bet the ponies, especially the favorites at small tracks, then it is better to play offshore, where they do NOT add the money to the pari-mutuel pool.

Now, on the other hand, if you're playing longshots in the exotics, where the offshores limit your win, you would be better playing in the parimutuel pool

G.MONEY · Aug 16, 2007

Ice....You just need to make sure who DOES and DOES NOT..throw it inot the pools

steaktartar · Aug 16, 2007

where is Inside The Pylons when you need him

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

G. MONEY said:
Ice....You just need to make sure who DOES and DOES NOT..throw it inot the pools

who does and who doesn't. I cant imagine an offshore book can being affiliated with a track in the U.S.

am I wrong?

G.MONEY · Aug 16, 2007

Yes...This conversation has taken place in the Horse racing forum before, I could be wrong but I believe some do dump. I know Old Man Ted has had some good info on this before. If he does not see this maybe shoot him a email.

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

steak tartar said:
where is Inside The Pylons when you need him

Was hoping he or some other horse guys will chime in. Don't anyone get me wrong as I should know as much as anyone how hard it is to beat the track. My point is more or less if you are going to make a sizable wager at a smaller track it would alot smarter to do this offshore. The point is this is one of the least talked about/ favorable things for the player in the offshore gambling industry and just doesnt get enough discussion (IMO).

DickyW · Aug 16, 2007

Yes some books do dump bets in the pool

maidenguy · Aug 16, 2007

Ice,
If the money you place offshore doesn't alter the odds at the track then the best bets would be the ones where you like a horse at decent odds.
I have played the dogs for 30 years and one of the tracks I live near is a small track called "Hinsdale Dog Track". A $50 bet would knock the odds down to 1-9.
There is an edge to be gained if you can find value. Betting to WIN only and not playing any of the exotic wagers can be tough though.

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

G. MONEY said:
Yes...This conversation has taken place in the Horse racing forum before, I could be wrong but I believe some do dump. I know Old Man Ted has had some good info on this before. If he does not see this maybe shoot him a email.

have to get back to work but can't imagine the smaller tracks are using this, espcially harness. The pools there are beyond a joke nowadays.

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

guys would love to keep talking but I have to do something. Handicapping harness horses has always been something I have loved.

will be back in a few hours.

Fishhead · Aug 16, 2007

Ice-
This is precisely why most offshore books no longer book greyhounds.

Iceman · Aug 16, 2007

Fishhead said:
Ice-
This is precisely why most offshore books no longer book greyhounds.

Fish (a true harness man):

am I on to something here? Not trying to break the bank. Just saying this is a huge edge (if you can cap) where your opinion doesnt hurt you.

I was following a local shithole track close to home last year and was winning a little bit for about 3 weeks but I couldnt bet over $20 on a horse without smashing it's odds. A horse would be great at 3-1 but my $30 win bet would make him 6-5. Bet $100 on that and you are talking about a $200 differernce on 1 race. Becoming frustating as you were really betting against yourself.

Fishhead · Aug 16, 2007

Iceman said:
Fish (a true harness man):

am I on to something here? Not trying to break the bank. Just saying this is a huge edge (if you can cap) where your opinion doesnt hurt you.

I was following a local shithole track close to home last year and was winning a little bit for about 3 weeks but I couldnt bet over $20 on a horse without smashing it's odds. A horse would be great at 3-1 but my $30 win bet would make him 6-5. Bet $100 on that and you are talking about a $200 differernce on 1 race. Becoming frustating as you were really betting against yourself.

One most definetly has an advantage!

There was a fellow in Vegas who strictly bet the greyhounds at Flagler, Derby Lane, and Tampa Greyhound and seldom had a losing day betting into the books in Vegas that did not have their action put into the pools. In fact he was cutoff at most joints or limited to $20 or less on each race. I became privliged to his plays for a month and wagered them at the Fremont in downtown Vegas..........needless to say, I did quite well. ALL of the wagers were boxed exactas with 2-3 dogs.

buddyboy · Aug 16, 2007

Ice,

yes it is a huge edge, the books are aware that it could be exploited.

good luck

DrunkenHorseplayer · Aug 16, 2007

Your strategy may work for a little while but when the books figure out you're sharp they'll start putting your action into the pools or limiting you.

fathead · Aug 16, 2007

The two biggest advantages of offshore racebooks are:

(1) Rebate
(2) Money may or may not go into the pool.

Getting a rebate is a huge help. You are getting paid just for betting, win or lose. Sort of a reverse vig.

If your money stays out of the pool, this is also very helpful, especially if your strategy involves large wagers.

While these two facts are helpful, like the man said, you still have to pick enough winners and manage your bets properly to make money. I am sure we all know someone who can pick winners, but loses money due to betting too big or small at the wrong time. Or betting too big for his bankroll size.

In my state I cannot bet online through Youbet or Brisbet, so it is offshore or nothing. To be honest, even if I could bet into the pool here in the US, I am not sure that I would since I would probably get terrible odds at many tracks.

The guys that should probably bet here in the US are those that like the exotics. You would not want to hit a big pick 6 offshore since you would be limited to $50k or less when you might could win a million dollars in the pool.

oldmanTED · Aug 16, 2007

Ice:

Very important factor to consider. Most offshore books do not carry small harness tracks, so you are very limited. I strongly suggest you check out the menu of tracks at CRIS/Bookmaker and DSI as they would be the mostly likely to carry smaller harness tracks and the money doesn't go into the pool. Otherwise you are left with places like Youbet where the money goes into the pool.

As for beating the races, that is a whole other story in and of itself.

InsideThePylons · Aug 16, 2007

steak tartar said:
where is Inside The Pylons when you need him

Varadero Beach, Cuba

Nobody ever wins betting on horses! NOBODY! I read it here in the last horse thread.

I think there may be a way to beat betting horses offshore

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