Like the Oak/WSOx Under ..nice Prop 4 U

TheShambler · Aug 16, 2007

Baseball Propositions - Baseball Props August 16, 2007
Chicago White Sox vs Oakland Athletics
Will there be a run scored in the first inning
No (-155) [pending]

Neither of these 2 teams has been exploding with a lot of runs. With 2 good pitchers on the mound today I expect it to be a pitching duel.

If you don't like this play you can get 4 under -160 for the first 4.5 innings.

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

I played this prop exclusively all last season and let me just tell you that you're -155 line you got for the NO for this game is brutal. The true ML for this game on the NO is probably somewhere around -105 or -110. You would have been much much better off taking the YES at +125 than the NO at -155. The YES +125 is a +EV bet and the NO -155 is a ---EV bet.

Good luck

terps1313 · Aug 16, 2007

TG your numbers are probably accurate for the entire league, but you do have to factor in who is on the mound.

prodigy · Aug 16, 2007

win or lose, and even if this is 0-0 heading into the 5th, laying -160 juice on 4 innings of baseball is incredibly dangerous. you basically have no wiggle room to speak of and you need everything to break right -- otherwise you are out a good chunk for just an hour of baseball.

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

terps, I never factor in who's on the mound. The game's O/U is by far the most highly-correlated variable to run scored in the first inning.

johnmadden13 · Aug 16, 2007

I'm on Haren today

TheShambler · Aug 16, 2007

Well that was a quick loss. I Don't know if the error cost me the loss or the 2 hits but either way I lost.

Should have stuck to the Under for 4 innings. Watch that lose too.

I usually don't play this prop unless I see there are 2 low scoring teams that have good pitchers as starters.

terps1313 · Aug 16, 2007

I see... so you mentioned the true NO should be around -105. This was already factoring in the over/under on the game?

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

Yup. Historically speaking, the true YES ML for O/U 7.5 games is +105, thus the NO is -105. Then you hunt for overlays from there.

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

Played this prop on over 1300 games last season. There's still money to be made with this prop but not nearly as much as you could make if Neteller were still around with all the books that offered this prop.

PatrickMcIrish · Aug 16, 2007

Dime lines on props? Sign me up!

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

Yeah, I wish. Made a killing on this prop even with their 30 cent lines. Bowmans had 20 cent lines. Books would be crazy to offer anything less than that. That's why Pinny doesn't even offer this prop.

PatrickMcIrish · Aug 16, 2007

Yep. More than one guy from a book told me about props, we get limited action and the action we get is the type we don't want, LOL. I used to always bitch about 30 cent lines we had to play into, that was his answer. Basically take it or leave it. BTW I agree with you, the O/U is far and away the biggest indicator for 1st inning plays. Of course the total is going to reflect who's on the mound and so on but you don't need to worry about any of that, you got all the info you need.

totalguy · Aug 16, 2007

Yeah, that's the beauty of the prop once you have a rock-solid angle on it. All it takes is 1 or 2 people on the other side to push a marginal or juicy line into a super-juicy line. Happened all the time with this prop as you got to 10-15 minutes to game time and squares hit the NO game after game.

johnmadden13 · Aug 16, 2007

Cmon Haren!!!!!!! 4-4 now

Like the Oak/WSOx Under ..nice Prop 4 U

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