Cubs
No surprise that there appears to be value on the Cubs, as Hills regression has made him become out of favor, while the Cardinals late playoff push appears to have put a premium on their asking price. Two of the main reasons for Hills regression has been his lack of control that has lead to an increase walk rate, and his inability to keep the ball in the park. Although these are not two weakness you want to back, they both should be helped out by the Cardinals lineups inability to draw the walk and the lack of power their lineup provides, especially against southpaws. Hills last starts numbers were inflated by Coors and one bad inning, while he has consistently put forth better numbers in his young career at home. While the Cardinals possess one of the hotter lineups in baseball, they continue to be one of the more anemic ones against left handed pitching, only possessing one hitter with more than three home runs against left handed pitching (Pujols with just six). Putting Hill on the mound also puts Duncan on the bench. The Cubs have a deep and solid bullpen that allows them to have leverage with handling Hills, and his being prone to the big inning.
Looper just hasn’t adjusted to the starting role, and despite putting forth a solid outing last time out and a quality start last time against the Cubs, he is a liability on the mound here on out, as he has already accumulated an inning count 50% higher than any of his last 8 seasons. Looper has been one of the worst pitchers on the road, supporting a near seven ERA, while his post break ERA resides over six as well.
Giants
This is an interesting match up, as this game provides to southpaws in the midst of nightmare seasons, making this game a likely candidate to pricing inefficiencies. In my opinion, it appears that value is on the underdog and the veteran pitching slowly showing signs of getting things back on track. Zito rebounded well from his first inning struggles last time out, and followed that inning with five dominating ones. His mechanics have been getting somewhat better, resulting in more ground balls, less walks and a decrease in well hit balls. Although Zito got dominated last time out against the Marlins, his pitching style can make this young lineups aggressiveness work against them. Zito has always been one of those rare southpaws that has always been more effective against right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going against a lineup filled with right handed hitters dominating southpaws this season. The Marlins are one of the few teams playing worse at home. Zito is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen.
Although Olsen is coming off two quality starts in a row, his struggles have been more predicated on intangibles than fundamentals, making him a prospect of imploding any time out, therefore making him a dangerous favorite to bet on. Even during those two starts, there were times in which he did not look comfortable on the mound. Until Olsen can piece together a couple more solid outings, I will continue to assume his mind is away from the game, and will price accordingly.
Mets
There appears to be a lot of value taken off National lines in recent series, as blind faders of this team have backed off. There now actually appears to be more opportunities to go against them, as they simply lack the talent to put forth this kind of winning percentage over the course of the season. Chico has show sings of dead are in recent outings, as he currently resides in an inning count where he posted a six ERA in double A ball two years ago. He has walked at least three batters in six straight starts, while coming off an outing in which he walked six. This is not a deficiency you want going up against one of the more patient lineups in the league, and one of the more aggressive ones on the base paths. With a WHIP approaching two after the break, and an ERA over six, Chico doesn’t appear reading for a solid road lineup like the Mets in current form.
Glavine has responded well to the dog days, putting forth four straight quality outings, including two road ones against quality lineups. Glavine now has a good shot to put forth five straight, as he is up against a young lineup that he has had success against two straight seasons. His control appears to be as good as it has all season, resulting in a decrease in free passes and not allowing a home run in 20 straight innings. Glavine’s fly ball tendencies makes him more of a liability on the road, but should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the Nationals lineup provides. The Nationals success this season has mainly been against sub .500 teams prone to overlooking them, while winning just 36 percent against winning teams.
Indians
Not many opportunities over the course of a season in which you see a blind fade like Jackson actually overvalued, but after putting forth three straight dominating outings, this appears to be the case. Jackson is still a pitcher that can implode any time out, and is most vulnerable against patient lineup unwilling to go out of the zone, and against lineups stacked from the left side. Facing a patient and dangerous lineup from the left side makes Jackson especially vulnerable in this start, while pitching at home where he has accumulated a career 6.5 ERA adds more fuel. The Indians ability to force high pitch counts on opposing starters forces the worst pen in baseball to have an influential role on the outcome of the game. The Indians recent woes at the plate appear to be fully factored into the line.
Byrd has always been one of the more undervalued road pitchers in baseball, and this game appears to be no different. This year he has taken his H/A disparities to another level, allowing him to become one of the best road pitchers in baseball this season. This is also a bounce back spot for Byrd, a role he has had success pitching under during the last three years (10 for 15 QS rate in the bounce back role). Byrd’s style of pitching also matches well against the aggressiveness and youth the DRAys lineup provides. Although not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, this is one of the few series in which the Indians possess the bullpen advantage.
Twins
Not sure why the market place has not caught up to the comfort zone Silva has had at home throughout his career, but I will continue to back him until his home dominance is reflected into the line. Silva has put forth three straight quality outings, while his ground ball rate has been getting progressively better. The Rangers lineup is much less potent with their roster changes, posses regressing players no longer overachieving, and have been nowhere nearly as dangerous on the road. Silva’s past struggles against this team also lacks sustainability, as there is not that much past success in today’s lineup against Sivla. The Twins also have the big bullpen advantage, as injuries, regression and trades has made the Rangers biggest strength somewhat of a liability.
Not a big fan of Gabbard, as I don’t see his early season success terribly sustainable, as he was accumulating impressive numbers with a bit of smoke and mirrors. His delivery is a bit hard to pick up, an embedded advantage that should continue to shrink as the league becomes more acquainted with him. His finesse style allowed aggressiveness at the plate to work in his favor, something in which this Twins lineup will not allow to happen, as they take what the pitcher gives them. Gabbard has been more hittable in recent outings, and is coming off a start in which he had to take an early exit due to a forearm injury that may play a role in today’s game.
Blue Jays
This is one home team in which you could still find value in betting even when having to lay a lot of chalk on. Burnett looked dominant in his first start off the disabled list, as he three hit the Royals, while he had a lot of movement on his pitches. This appears to be a good spot for him to put forth another dominant outing, as he faces a team that he has dominated since joining the AL. Burnett has always been considerable more effective in his home outings no matter the team he has pitched for, and has put forth dominant numbers in this park year to date. Backed by one of the more underrated pens in the league should make it hard for the Orioles to provide ideal run support for the liability they are sending on the mound.
This is not an ideal spot for Olsen, whose control problems will sooner or later catch up with him at this level. He has allowed nearly a walk an inning during his three starts, as nerves have played a role on his pitching performance. Known to give up the long ball and facing one of the more potent lineups at home and against southpaws, this deficiency of his should be magnified in this outing. The Orioles don’t have the ideal depth in their pen to back this style of pitcher. The Blue Jays are making one final playoff push, and have been one of the better home teams in baseball once again this season.
No surprise that there appears to be value on the Cubs, as Hills regression has made him become out of favor, while the Cardinals late playoff push appears to have put a premium on their asking price. Two of the main reasons for Hills regression has been his lack of control that has lead to an increase walk rate, and his inability to keep the ball in the park. Although these are not two weakness you want to back, they both should be helped out by the Cardinals lineups inability to draw the walk and the lack of power their lineup provides, especially against southpaws. Hills last starts numbers were inflated by Coors and one bad inning, while he has consistently put forth better numbers in his young career at home. While the Cardinals possess one of the hotter lineups in baseball, they continue to be one of the more anemic ones against left handed pitching, only possessing one hitter with more than three home runs against left handed pitching (Pujols with just six). Putting Hill on the mound also puts Duncan on the bench. The Cubs have a deep and solid bullpen that allows them to have leverage with handling Hills, and his being prone to the big inning.
Looper just hasn’t adjusted to the starting role, and despite putting forth a solid outing last time out and a quality start last time against the Cubs, he is a liability on the mound here on out, as he has already accumulated an inning count 50% higher than any of his last 8 seasons. Looper has been one of the worst pitchers on the road, supporting a near seven ERA, while his post break ERA resides over six as well.
Giants
This is an interesting match up, as this game provides to southpaws in the midst of nightmare seasons, making this game a likely candidate to pricing inefficiencies. In my opinion, it appears that value is on the underdog and the veteran pitching slowly showing signs of getting things back on track. Zito rebounded well from his first inning struggles last time out, and followed that inning with five dominating ones. His mechanics have been getting somewhat better, resulting in more ground balls, less walks and a decrease in well hit balls. Although Zito got dominated last time out against the Marlins, his pitching style can make this young lineups aggressiveness work against them. Zito has always been one of those rare southpaws that has always been more effective against right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going against a lineup filled with right handed hitters dominating southpaws this season. The Marlins are one of the few teams playing worse at home. Zito is backed by a deeper and better rested bullpen.
Although Olsen is coming off two quality starts in a row, his struggles have been more predicated on intangibles than fundamentals, making him a prospect of imploding any time out, therefore making him a dangerous favorite to bet on. Even during those two starts, there were times in which he did not look comfortable on the mound. Until Olsen can piece together a couple more solid outings, I will continue to assume his mind is away from the game, and will price accordingly.
Mets
There appears to be a lot of value taken off National lines in recent series, as blind faders of this team have backed off. There now actually appears to be more opportunities to go against them, as they simply lack the talent to put forth this kind of winning percentage over the course of the season. Chico has show sings of dead are in recent outings, as he currently resides in an inning count where he posted a six ERA in double A ball two years ago. He has walked at least three batters in six straight starts, while coming off an outing in which he walked six. This is not a deficiency you want going up against one of the more patient lineups in the league, and one of the more aggressive ones on the base paths. With a WHIP approaching two after the break, and an ERA over six, Chico doesn’t appear reading for a solid road lineup like the Mets in current form.
Glavine has responded well to the dog days, putting forth four straight quality outings, including two road ones against quality lineups. Glavine now has a good shot to put forth five straight, as he is up against a young lineup that he has had success against two straight seasons. His control appears to be as good as it has all season, resulting in a decrease in free passes and not allowing a home run in 20 straight innings. Glavine’s fly ball tendencies makes him more of a liability on the road, but should be helped out by this park and the lack of power the Nationals lineup provides. The Nationals success this season has mainly been against sub .500 teams prone to overlooking them, while winning just 36 percent against winning teams.
Indians
Not many opportunities over the course of a season in which you see a blind fade like Jackson actually overvalued, but after putting forth three straight dominating outings, this appears to be the case. Jackson is still a pitcher that can implode any time out, and is most vulnerable against patient lineup unwilling to go out of the zone, and against lineups stacked from the left side. Facing a patient and dangerous lineup from the left side makes Jackson especially vulnerable in this start, while pitching at home where he has accumulated a career 6.5 ERA adds more fuel. The Indians ability to force high pitch counts on opposing starters forces the worst pen in baseball to have an influential role on the outcome of the game. The Indians recent woes at the plate appear to be fully factored into the line.
Byrd has always been one of the more undervalued road pitchers in baseball, and this game appears to be no different. This year he has taken his H/A disparities to another level, allowing him to become one of the best road pitchers in baseball this season. This is also a bounce back spot for Byrd, a role he has had success pitching under during the last three years (10 for 15 QS rate in the bounce back role). Byrd’s style of pitching also matches well against the aggressiveness and youth the DRAys lineup provides. Although not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, this is one of the few series in which the Indians possess the bullpen advantage.
Twins
Not sure why the market place has not caught up to the comfort zone Silva has had at home throughout his career, but I will continue to back him until his home dominance is reflected into the line. Silva has put forth three straight quality outings, while his ground ball rate has been getting progressively better. The Rangers lineup is much less potent with their roster changes, posses regressing players no longer overachieving, and have been nowhere nearly as dangerous on the road. Silva’s past struggles against this team also lacks sustainability, as there is not that much past success in today’s lineup against Sivla. The Twins also have the big bullpen advantage, as injuries, regression and trades has made the Rangers biggest strength somewhat of a liability.
Not a big fan of Gabbard, as I don’t see his early season success terribly sustainable, as he was accumulating impressive numbers with a bit of smoke and mirrors. His delivery is a bit hard to pick up, an embedded advantage that should continue to shrink as the league becomes more acquainted with him. His finesse style allowed aggressiveness at the plate to work in his favor, something in which this Twins lineup will not allow to happen, as they take what the pitcher gives them. Gabbard has been more hittable in recent outings, and is coming off a start in which he had to take an early exit due to a forearm injury that may play a role in today’s game.
Blue Jays
This is one home team in which you could still find value in betting even when having to lay a lot of chalk on. Burnett looked dominant in his first start off the disabled list, as he three hit the Royals, while he had a lot of movement on his pitches. This appears to be a good spot for him to put forth another dominant outing, as he faces a team that he has dominated since joining the AL. Burnett has always been considerable more effective in his home outings no matter the team he has pitched for, and has put forth dominant numbers in this park year to date. Backed by one of the more underrated pens in the league should make it hard for the Orioles to provide ideal run support for the liability they are sending on the mound.
This is not an ideal spot for Olsen, whose control problems will sooner or later catch up with him at this level. He has allowed nearly a walk an inning during his three starts, as nerves have played a role on his pitching performance. Known to give up the long ball and facing one of the more potent lineups at home and against southpaws, this deficiency of his should be magnified in this outing. The Orioles don’t have the ideal depth in their pen to back this style of pitcher. The Blue Jays are making one final playoff push, and have been one of the better home teams in baseball once again this season.
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