Thanks Lloyd. I was going to take CIN today as well, but then I read something interesting:
Depsite how bad Cappuano has been pitching, he has a 0.66 ERA versus the Reds his last two outings against them. Plus the Reds have struggled versus lefties all season and....it is Cappuano's Birthday today.
I still think CIN is the play...but that was enough to make me leave it off of my card.
BOL today my friend!
Thanks Game. As far as the STL game, I am nervous to touch it since I incorrectly predicted STL to win the last two. They led for 5.5 innings in the first one before collapsing and giving me a loss on a day that I went 4~2.
Then yesterday STL had a horrible 5th inning, which cost them the game and gave me a loss on a day that I went 7~3.
So after being burnt twice, on days that I did pretty well overall, I am a bit scared of this game. But since you asked, here's my thoughts...
STL starter Wells' season 6~13 record and 5.24 ERA is deceiving when you note that he is 2~0 in his L3 starts with a 2.37 ERA.
Cubs starter Zambrano's season 14~9 record and 3.86 ERA is equally deceiving when you note that he is 0~2 in his L3 starts with a bloated 7.13 ERA.
Offensively STL ws ROLLING before coming into this series (scoring 8, 8, 12, 12 & 6 runs in the five games before the series). But since then they've only scored 1 & 3 runs versus the Cubs. I'd like to think their bats come back around here sooner or later.
Meanwhile the Cubs were a little bit more up and down coming into this series (scoring 12, 9, 5, 3 & 2 runs in the five games before this series). And since then they've scored 2 & 5 runs versus STL. As I said, up and down bats for the Cubs.
Verdict: the +150 to +155 ML looks pretty damn tempting, but for the fainter of heart the +1.5 RL at -140 to -150 (depending on your books) may not be such a bad bet if you fear Zambrano comes up big in the early innings and STL needs to come back later.
