three today with analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-1.80 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">35</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">37</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+14.00 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">180</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">213</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+23.85 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


FLORIDA –1½ +1.12 over San Francisco (1:05 PM)
If the Marlins have any pride left whatsoever they’ll come out this afternoon and play their hearts out because getting swept by the Giants in their own crib is unacceptable and completely embarrassing. The good news is that the Marlins are a decent squad while the Giants are not. Sergio Mitre has just one win at home in 10 starts but more importantly his ERA at home is a very respectable 3.36. He’s walked just 29 batters all year in 129 innings and seldom does he not pitch at least six full innings. Bt contrast, Russ Ortiz walks far too many and is constantly behind in the count. He walked five in his last start in five frames and i8n two starts since rejoining the rotation he’s walked seven in 10 innings. Ortiz really doesn’t have much upside and if this were a pennant race it’s extremely unlikely he’d even be with the team, let alone starting. His velocity is way down and he’s still one of the most hittable pitchers in the game. It’s also worth noting that the Marlins are 56-68 but they have a very decent 15-15 record in day games and that the Giants are just 14-25 in day games. Is there an uglier wagering combo then Ortiz and the Giants? We think not. Play: Florida –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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COLORADO –1½ +1.30 over Pittsburgh
Matt Morris has been tagged for five runs in six innings in all three of his starts with his new team. The Pirates just had to have this guy and his 10-million dollar a year contract. He’s allowed 23 hits and eight walks in 18 frames since joining the Buccos and in those three starts the opposition hit .329 off. Morris has been torched in 11 straight starts. In fact, he’s surrendered five runs or more in eight of those 11 starts but it could’ve been worse had the opposition cashed in some of those base-runners. On June 23 he gave up four runs to the Yanks in 5.2 innings, however he gave up 13 hits in that game. He also gave up 10 hits to the Snakes on June 29 but they only scored three runs. Morris fell to 0-5 with a 7.63 ERA and a .372 opponent batting average in those 11 starts. Matt Morris is worn out and his head and heart is not where it should be, He was publicly upset about getting traded to Pittsburgh and he let his feelings be known. He’ll now face his toughest test in his new digs and Coors is not a friendly place to struggling pitchers. The Rockies are 21-6 at home since June 6 and they possess one of the most dangerous offenses in the game. Rookie Ubaldo Jimenez has all the potential to be in this league for a long time. He’s allowed just 28 hits in 30 innings and threw a gem in San Diego in his last start. Anyway, this has nothing at all to do with playing on Jiminez. This is all about playing against Matt Morris pitching for the NL’s worst team and perhaps the toughest venue in the league for the opposition. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
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TORONTO/Oakland over 8½ +1.11
Only now is Shaun Marcum getting the credit he deserves after pitching under the radar for the better part of the last three months. His numbers are strong and he’s been downright dominating over his last three starts. However, at the Rogers Center his numbers aren’t so great and because of all the recognition Marcum has received recently we get a very beatable total here. In fact, at home Marcum has allowed 14 jacks in just 59 innings of work to go along with an ERA of 4.12. The Jays have been very strong at home all year long and there’s no reason they can’t put up a bunch against Joe Blanton. Blanton has been hit hard in six of his last eight starts and in fact, he allowed 10 hits or more in four straight games from July 8- July 25. His road ERA is 5.49 with the opposition hitting .295 off him. This is a small total in a hitter’s park and one I trust we can take advantage of. Play: Toronto/Oakland over 8½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Good luck Sherwood. I like the Jays in this one, mainly because Blanton already had a dominant performance against the Jays this season, think the law of average play into todays game and the Jays rough him up.
 

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Jays make so many average pitchers look good and good pitchers look bad. They're very tough to get a read on in terms of which team will show up. It's truly amazing that with their pitching staff and offense they have a worse record then so many teams that they're hugely superior to. John Gibbons needs to go.
 

Winnipeg Jets forever
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I noticed Sean Marcum on the covers main page. That is equivalent to the Sports Illustrated curse IMO and an automatic fade. Coupled that with your write-up ,the Oakland team total over 3.5 +100 was a no-brainer.
Just wish I had wagered more on it.
 

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