System play that has gone 22-1 since 2002

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Oh boy!
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Let's air it out regarding system plays. I can't tell you how many system plays I've seen that have gone 22-1 (or something like that) only to fall flat on its face. I believe there was one in the MLB forum regarding how if Atlanta wins 3 in a row to take the over. After that was posted I think they went 3-3 to the over.

Most system plays are simple coincidences or contrived events that have little or no meaning such as "take XXX team versus a division opponent after having lost to a non-conference opponent on Sunday during the month of October" and often go back several years so that they are no longer relevant due to the turnover of players or coaches.

I am linking to a system play posted here last year and would like your input. The reason I like this system play is because there seems to be sound reasoning behind why it works. Here is the link to the thread. The reason I didn't bump the thread is because the title refers to a system play taking place this week, which isn't the case anymore.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=410405

The system states to take a home favorite between -6 1/2 to -15 the week before a bye. When I look at a bet I like to ask 2 questions: does the team have the talent to cover the spread and does the team have the motivation. I believe these teams have both for this reason. A home team favored by that much has the talent to cover. The reason they will want to do well is because if they don't do well they will have to listen to their coach bitch at them for the next 2 weeks straight.

Any input?
 

Seahawk
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it's still preseason... i don't get it. Are you referring to DEN for this week? Either way, the logistics are there but eh.

Good to see you around here again.
 

Oh boy!
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it's still preseason... i don't get it. Are you referring to DEN for this week? Either way, the logistics are there but eh.

Good to see you around here again.

I believe the bye weeks start around the 3rd week so this will not kick in until then.
 

Oh boy!
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Makes sense to me, do you have sample plays from say, last year?

In the thread from the link, gskiman posts this info (posted on 10-09-2006):

Recap Week 5
NE -9 20-10 Win
Minn -6.5 26-17 Win
JAX -6.5 41-0 Win
This season System 6-0 ATS
Overall since 2002 System 22-1 ATS

It's interesting to note that NE won by 10 so if you didn't get this at -9.5 you would have pushed. Some got this number at -10.5.
 

Oh boy!
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I found one in Week 9 from 2006 that wasn't updated in the thread. Phi -7.5 lost at home to Jax before the bye week so this should be updated to be 22-2.
 

Oh boy!
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In week 4 we have 4 teams that will be having a bye week:
Jax, New Orleans, Tennessee and Washington.

We are looking to bet on home favorites between -6 1/2 and -15 the week before a bye week.

Jacksonville is on the road against Denver.
New Orleans is at home but is only listed at -5 against Tennessee.
Tennessee is on the road at New Orleans.
Washington is home at -3 1/2 to the Giants.

None of the teams for Week 3 fit this criteria. I will continue to monitor it.

I kind of like Washington though. They looked good against Philly and the Giants looked horrible. Could they come out big in their home game before their week off?
 

Don't assume people in charge know what they are d
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q-leap

I hate technical trends and the systems that are bred from these stats.
Fundamental trends count.

This has some possible merit and sould be followed, IMHO!

The "all out" feeling knowing you have a couple of weeks off to gloat or not get crapped on, may hold water.
Esp. at home.

Let us know when we have a play.


Coaster
 

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I show this system having gone 18-2 since 2002, including 6-1 last year.

However, between 1990 and 2001 it went 32-32, and breaking it down further:

season ATS
2001 3-3-0 (-6.6)
2000 1-2-0 (-1.5)
1999 1-2-0 (-1.0)
1998 2-2-0 (2.8)
1997 1-6-0 (-5.6)
1996 2-1-0 (7.8)
1995 1-0-0 (4.5)
1994 3-4-0 (-7.1)
1993 9-5-0 (-2.1)
1992 3-4-0 (0.9)
1991 3-1-0 (4.5)
1990 3-2-0 (1.3)
 

sdf

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I show this system having gone 18-2 since 2002, including 6-1 last year.

However, between 1990 and 2001 it went 32-32, and breaking it down further:

season ATS
2001 3-3-0 (-6.6)
2000 1-2-0 (-1.5)
1999 1-2-0 (-1.0)
1998 2-2-0 (2.8)
1997 1-6-0 (-5.6)
1996 2-1-0 (7.8)
1995 1-0-0 (4.5)
1994 3-4-0 (-7.1)
1993 9-5-0 (-2.1)
1992 3-4-0 (0.9)
1991 3-1-0 (4.5)
1990 3-2-0 (1.3)

same here. it had a good run lately but long term hasnt proved itself out.
 

Oh boy!
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Good work guys. I appreciate the posts. I should have quoted the following from the original link:

"In 2002 the Houston Texans were added to the league to make 32 teams rather than the unwieldy 31. The league took the opportunity to realign the league into eight divisions with four teams each. This made the assigning the bye weeks much simpler. Now, there are byes only in weeks 3-9. Previously some teams opened the season with a bye!"

This illustrates the problem with taking trends from so far back as they may no longer be relevant. The bye system was changed in 2002 and that is why this system takes only dates since then into account. Perhaps the players play differently when the bye weeks come in the middle of the season rather than all throughout the season as they had in the past.

What remains to be seen is whether the rearrangement of the bye system in 2002 has made a difference. The difference in my results and your results may be due to the differing lines that each person has input. Regardless, since 2002 this has proven out.

It will be interesting to see if it is still relevant this year. Thanks again.
 

Oh boy!
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Well week 5 finally includes a team that fits this system. The following teams have byes in week 6:

Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Buffalo is a dog, Denver is favored by only 1, Detroit is on the road, Pittsburgh is favored by 5 1/2.

Indy is at home before a bye and is favored by 10 which is between 6 1/2 and 15.

Indy is the play against Tampa Bay.
 

Seahawk
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I'm on the UNDER in the INDY game... and am seriously thinking about INDY -10 as we speak. GL.
 

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The Steelers opened at -6.5, making me wonder if this system -- which is very intriguing to me -- is based on opening lines or lines closer to game time.
 

Oh boy!
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The Steelers opened at -6.5, making me wonder if this system -- which is very intriguing to me -- is based on opening lines or lines closer to game time.

Good question YAA. This is a quote from gskiman from last year's thread that I linked to in the 1st post of this thread:

"Officially the trend record goes with the closing line being 6.5 or more."

hola
 

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Good question YAA. This is a quote from gskiman from last year's thread that I linked to in the 1st post of this thread:

"Officially the trend record goes with the closing line being 6.5 or more."

For the sake of consistency in watching this trend, then, we'll use that closing line. Meaning, as of right now, the Steelers do NOT fit the bill.

I like this system. Seems like it could have roots in reality.
 

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the system play your looking at should read.....

teams favored by more than 6pts with a bye on deck are 24-1 su and 21-4 ats since 02.

this applies to indy this week, with a possibility for pitt if it climbs to more than 6 by closing.

GAME.:103631605
 

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