How much money do you need to earn to make this fall/winter gambling season worth it

Journeyman · Aug 21, 2007

These are questions we should all know the answer to right now, not in mid Novermber...if you don't have a plan, either get one together or plan to be down or sitting on the sideline for periods of time this coming football season. :103631605

From Sept to Feb, set a goal and try your best to stick to it...never bet more than 5% on one game (and that is pushing it) and try not to go over 2% on most plays...

Take some shots but only when up and not chasing, and as a rule never bet a SNF or MNF game to 'get out' , easier said than done I know.

Make a plan and have a goal :suomi:

TomBrady#1 · Aug 21, 2007

Actually very sound advice.

I try to work hard, put the time and and then let the chips fall where they may.

RobFunk · Aug 21, 2007

You make it sound so easy. I like that Journeyman.

Knowing what to do and actually sticking with it for a whole season are two different tacos.

When I do the right things I cash. But that isnt exciting enough for me sometimes, and then you know what usually happens.

I think avoiding greed and having STRONG discipline are the two most difficult things to master in sports wagering. JMHO.

Journeyman · Aug 21, 2007

RobFunk said:
You make it sound so easy. I like that Journeyman.

Knowing what to do and actually sticking with it for a whole season are two different tacos.

When I do the right things I cash. But that isnt exciting enough for me sometimes, and then you know what usually happens.

I think avoiding greed and having STRONG discipline are the two most difficult things to master in sports wagering. JMHO.

Many, many avg Joe gamblers would be much better of with a 'governor' on their acct so they couldn't chase...they would be surprised too in the end just how much better off they were.

Rob, isn't it funny how many of us know what not to do, but still will step out nad get hit by a bus, over and over?

I think you nailed it...'not exctiting enough'...it may not always be exciting but, it sure beats watching without anything on the line :103631605

whalewager · Aug 21, 2007

Hey Journey. Who is the gay guy in your avatar?

Journeyman · Aug 21, 2007

RobFunk said:
You make it sound so easy. I like that Journeyman.

Knowing what to do and actually sticking with it for a whole season are two different tacos.

When I do the right things I cash. But that isnt exciting enough for me sometimes, and then you know what usually happens.

I think avoiding greed and having STRONG discipline are the two most difficult things to master in sports wagering. JMHO.

Let me add, when I look back, in almost every instance I did much better when I stuck to lower amounts per game and more plays and playing consistently and not 'random bombing' :ughhh:

Iceman · Aug 21, 2007

Tom Brady#1 said:
Actually very sound advice.

I try to work hard, put the time and and then let the chips fall where they may.

This is something I always tell myself. Don't worry after the bet is made. I know if I follow my plan than I have a 54-56% of winning the bet and there is nothing more I can do about it. No second guessing (at least I try not to).

RobFunk · Aug 21, 2007

Journeyman said:
Let me add, when I look back, in almost every instance I did much better when I stuck to lower amounts per game and more plays and playing consistently and not 'random bombing' :ughhh:

Random bombing is so much fun though. It's our version of crack. :toast:

Anybody reading this, uh I dont advocate betting high % of your BR on one play or game.

Journeyman · Aug 21, 2007

Iceman said:
This is something I always tell myself. Don't worry after the bet is made. I know if I follow my plan than I have a 54-56% of winning the bet and there is nothing more I can do about it. No second guessing (at least I try not to).

The sooner we realize this the better...and I would like to add- unless you have won for years in the past, don't go putting 5% on one game.

honkee · Aug 21, 2007

My goal for NFl this season before the break is 5k making 1-500 dollar bets.
Im gonna try to limit the parlays and do straight wagers and a couple teasers

JohnnyB · Aug 21, 2007

Iceman said:
This is something I always tell myself. Don't worry after the bet is made. I know if I follow my plan than I have a 54-56% of winning the bet and there is nothing more I can do about it. No second guessing (at least I try not to).

Iceman · Aug 21, 2007

My plan:

Have around 10 books funded (some locals) and ready to go. Follow line movement throghout the week and try to pick up GREAT numberes a few days before the games start. Going into gameday, try to make sure most bets are going to beat the closing lines (defines a good play for me) and than fade late public steam against locals that jack numbers or public moved number (i.e MNF favorites get drilled alot on gameday bet the dog when line moves too much, simple stuff like that). Try to get down about 20k a week in bets and win from 3% (ROI) a week and up. Capping is overrated and getting a GREAT number is not. Try to never bet a bad number.

2 things I am working on this year that I haven't focused alot of on in the past. 1) 2nd half plays. This can be huge and it only ties up your money for an hour and a half, which honestly is huge when you are trying to churn over your bankroll as much as possibile with small edge bets and 2) Biggest advice I can give to others (esp in NFL) is key numbers are beyond huge in this sport. Try to grab -2.5 when line is 3, under 17.5 1st half total when line is 17. Stuff like that means so much in the NFL. I middled alot of stuff in NFL last year and I have done really well in NFL exhibition games so far this year doing just that. This year I will concentrate more on staying heavy on the bad side but the number is bigger than most suspect on the NFL. Espicailly for a guy who is betting 100+ plays a week in both college and pros.

After betting almost everyday for a year, I think the NFL and NBA are neck and neck for the eaisest sport to beat doing what I do.

Good Luck everyone:toast:

bellyputter · Aug 21, 2007

If you don't know what you are doing, a good # on Wednesday, may be a bad # on Saturday or Sunday.

RobFunk · Aug 21, 2007

Iceman, thats what I hear. Being sharp is someone with 10+ funded books.

Working on those 2nd half plays and adding it to the repertoire isnt going to do anything but help. A lot of money to be made there.

The whole thing of buying up good numbers and then 'selling' them back later is a concept I understand. It's just I'm not far along enough to do stuff like that. I need to keep it simple and just be smart about things.

Grabbing key numbers at a good price is REALLY solid advice. Trying to buy those on saturday or sunday morning is virtually impossible.

Good luck to you this season.

RobFunk · Aug 21, 2007

bellyputter said:
If you don't know what you are doing, a good # on Wednesday, may be a bad # on Saturday or Sunday.

Well thats true also. Your -3 +105 might be a -1 -110 come sunday. Got to have a feel for the public, not just about buying up neat looking 3's and 7's.

Iceman · Aug 21, 2007

RobFunk said:
Iceman, thats what I hear. Being sharp is someone with 10+ funded books.

Working on those 2nd half plays and adding it to the repertoire isnt going to do anything but help. A lot of money to be made there.

The whole thing of buying up good numbers and then 'selling' them back later is a concept I understand. It's just I'm not far along enough to do stuff like that. I need to keep it simple and just be smart about things.

Grabbing key numbers at a good price is REALLY solid advice. Trying to buy those on saturday or sunday morning is virtually impossible.

Good luck to you this season.

good luck to you. No one is perfect. You will be wrong on some moves. Happens to everyone. You can equate it to poker, you have to make logical decisions based on what is most likely going to happen.

One thing most people can do and I strongly advise with little or no handicapping is to take full advantage of bookmakers with off numbers, espically when he moves them around key numbers to try and induce some action on the side he needs. If most pay attention to that on gameday they should be able to beat there man on that alone.

bellyputter · Aug 21, 2007

RobFunk, no offense, but the "Public" has very little to do with line movements. Good Luck

Iceman · Aug 21, 2007

I have also thought the public is easiest to read in the NFL. They put WAY WAY too much stock in what they seen the week before and you can take advantage of that if you try and think like the public thinks.

Iceman · Aug 21, 2007

bellyputter said:
RobFunk, no offense, but the "Public" has very little to do with line movements. Good Luck

Sorry I slightly disagree. In the NFL it does, there is slow steady public money like my earlier NFL MNF example. There is around 5 MNF games a year that I bet earlier in the week when I think the public will slam it on gameday when they start to bet it. Most of the public dont bet till gameday and esp on MNF when it is a bailout game for most and it is the only game on for that day.

Middling NFL is easier than most think if you put the time in(harder that PInny is gone).

RobFunk · Aug 21, 2007

bellyputter said:
RobFunk, no offense, but the "Public" has very little to do with line movements. Good Luck

I think our definitions of 'public' are different. I stay away from putting bettors in different groups these days. The game isnt the same to me anymore.