Five today with analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-0.12 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">36</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">37</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+15.80 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since April 2007)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">182</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">216</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">0</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+21.95 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Atlanta +1.04 over CINCINNATI
If the better pitcher won each time out then we’d all be rich, but they don’t. Certainly, Bronson Arroyo has to be considered the better pitcher here based on stats but so what. The Reds are 9-17 when Arroyo starts and that’s significant. What makes the Braves so appealing as a pooch is their ability to score a bunch on anyone and Bronson Arroyo is not immune. In fact, the Braves have scored 33 times over its last four games while pounding out 46 hits and stretches like that have become commonplace for this invader. This park is very friendly to teams that can bash and that’s precisely what Atlanta has been doing in the first two games of this series. Lance Cormier has some ugly numbers indeed but he pitched a very decent game in his last against the D-Backs. The Braves lost that one 4-0 but Cormier pitched into the eighth inning and allowed just three earned runs. He’s been getting progressively better with each appearance and if Bobby Cox and the pitching coaches didn’t see something good there’s no way they’d be starting him in the midst of a pennant race. So yeah, Cormier’s stats are ugly but sometimes they don’t tell the whole story, especially when a guy has pitched just 20 innings all year. The Braves are vastly superior to the Reds and when you throw in a small tag it’s all the incentive we need. Play: Atlanta +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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Chicago -1.03 over SAN FRANCISCO
Man, 126 million bucks sure doesn’t buy you what it used to. Barry Zito is 3-6 with a 6.01 ERA in his last 13 starts. Zito has one win in his last four starts and that came against the reeling Fish. Winning games in this league is tough enough and when you’re laboring and pitching for the Giants it makes it 20x tougher to win. Only the Pirates and D-Rays have less wins then the Giants. San Fran had won five straight prior to last night but they went right back to playing like the Giants last night so don’t be fooled by a good but extremely rare five-game stretch. This Giant team is a bad one, end of story while the Cubbies have been making a serious move for the better part of the past 10 weeks. The Cubs are 15 games over .500 since June 3 and they’ve won four of five. Rich Hill has surrendered just 126 hits in 147 frames and he’s also struck out 135 batters over that stretch. Hill is coming off a seven-inning, three-hit gem against the Cardinals and on the road this year the opposition has hit just .224 off him. This is a cheap price on the Cubbies and definitely worth the gamble. Play: Chicago –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units).
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Los Angeles +1.00 over PHILADELPHIA
Game was off the board at the time of this writing due to the fact that the Phillies are a little banged up and it looks like J.D. Durbin is going to be moved up a day in the rotation because Cole Hamels came up lame and will miss at least two starts. What we do know is that the Phillies will be about -1.20 chalk or thereabouts and we’re going to step in on the Dodgers. Durbin is 4-1 as a starter with a 4.11 ERA and that looks real sweet on paper but again, it only tells part of the story. You see, Durbin is a reliever and spot starter and that’s because he’s not very good at all. He’s made just five starts this season with two of them coming against the Pirates and one being in San Diego so naturally his numbers look better then he actually is. Fact is, his ERA at home is 7.07 and he has trouble throwing strikes. Durbin has walked 25 batters in 43 innings and he’s also allowed 49 hits, however, those numbers get much worse at home when he’s not facing the Pirates. The Dodgers are laboring for sure but Derek Lowe is a sinkerballer and at this park that has to work in his favor. Lowe is reliable, he’s struck out 113 batters while walking just 44 and what he brings to the table is quality innings year after year after year. Lowe is a very live pup against a guy who looks so much better on paper then he actually is. Play: Los Angeles +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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L.A. ANGELS +1.00 over NY Yankees
If the Yankees were wearing any other uniforms besides their own they’d be taking back about 1.40 in this game (maybe more) and in no way would they be the favorite. This is value at it’s absolute best, as the Yanks continue to be overpriced every single day. The Yanks went on a tear, a big one in fact but they beat up on the dregs of the league during their hot streak. Fact is, the Yanks have lost five of eight with the only three wins coming against a laboring Tigers squad. They dropped two out of three to the Orioles, one to the Tigers and the first two games of this series. Defensively, New York is hugely flawed with weak arms in the outfield, a very average infield and an aggressive team like the Angels exploits those weaknesses in a big way. Then we have John Lackey as a pooch in his own crib, which is ludicrous. The Angels are 18-7 when Lackey starts. In two starts vs the Yanks this season Lackey is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.69. Lackey leads the league in wins with 15 and his 3.32 ERA is eighth best. Again, the Angels a dog in this spot is just plain stupid. Play: L.A. Angels +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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Seattle +1.00 over MINNESOTA (1:10 PM)
Offensively, this one’s a mismatch, as the Mariners continue to score runs at an alarming rate while the Twins scratch and claw for every run they get. Seattle has now moved to 19 games above .500 while the Twins are one game below. Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista is a fairly even match-up, as Batista’s ERA is 4.14 while Silva comes in with a 4.17 ERA. So, the big difference here is that the Mariners are steaming hot with five wins in a row and 17 wins in their last 23 games while the Twins are about as dangerous as Mike Tyson on a Scrabble board. Not having to lay a thing works for us. Play: Seattle +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
 

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seattle was my play of the day over in the mlb invatational thread. just looked at the in-game & i see it's 8-0 twins & all the twins backers are cashing their tiks in the 2nd inning. guess it's a loser. can't win them all.
 

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by the way, i wasn't following u sherwood. picked that one myself, been on seattle the last 2 nites. it's over for the twins. couldn't believe i got to take plus money in all 3 games of the series. if that would have been the yanks in the metrodome, the yanks would've been laying big juice in all 3 gms. so's i agree, it's a no brainer, the yanks are vastly overpriced in each & every one of their games.
 

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Mar 20, 2006
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Great anaylsis on that Dodger game... Keep up the good work, I for one appricate the picks you put out...will definitely look out for more of your picks...best of luck in the future and thank you!
 

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