Brewers/Dbacks Analysis

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ICC

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As the public continues to pound the D-backs tonight, I am waiting patiently to get the Brewers at the best price available. Im assuming that the price (+200 @ Bodog) will move another $20 or so in the favor of the Diamondbacks.

Webb has been unhittable since July 25th. I could post the numbers, but everyone is well aware of what he has been doing. Webbs control has been wonderful only allowing 4 walks in his last 4 starts. The numbers that might prove to be most important are the amount of pitches that he has been throwing. Below are the amount of pitches Webb has thrown in his last 5 starts.

108 ~ FLA
111 ~ SD
102 ~ LA
119 ~ WASH
102 ~ ATL

Webb has not thrown over 100 pitches 5 straight times at any point this season. In April he pitched well in 5 straight games where his pitch-count exceeded 100 4 times and was 90 the final time. In his next outing, Webb struggled bad against the Mets in giving up 5 runs over 6 innings. Webb has throw over 184 innings already this year, and he is the leader by 6 innings over both Oswalt and Hudson for the league lead. Webb has thrown a ton of pitches this year, and he is only 40 innnings away from setting a new career high in IP. He has never thrown this many pitches this early in the season.

Also, the pressure that is being put in Webb out here in Phoenix is unbelievable. Last nights pregame show featured a segment on tonights game instead of discussing the game that was about to take place. Ever sports radio channel is discussing him constantly, and Webb is too nice of a guy to decline all the interviews that are being asked of him. I have seen Webb interviewed at least 6 different times since his last start, and I cant imagine that is very good for his concetration going in to tonight.

The Brewers are as streaky as teams get, and when there big weapons are performing they are near impossible to keep from putting runs up on the board. Being a Cubs fan, I have spent a lot of time watching the Brewers the last couple months and there are some very obvious observations that can be made. The ONLY way to get Ryan Braun out is to get the fastball up in on his hands and have him pop the ball up. Braun has quickly become one of the elite hitters in the league. This kid is no flash in the pan, as he has continued to hit the ball with all sorts of power and average. Webb has been so damn dominant using his hard sinker, that he really has abandoned using his fastball in the inner-hlaf of the plate. Braun should be able to handle the Webb sinker by driving the ball the other way as he has done so frequently.

As you all know, sinkerball pitchers are most effective when players are trying to pull the ball and are forced into weak ground-outs. This is Webb's fortay, but the Brewers hitters are very capable of taking the ball to the opposite field. There is not a better power-hitter to the opposite field (not named Howard) than Prince Fielder. Webb wont be able to get Prince to take the bait and over swing. The entire Brewers line-up is very capable of taking the ball the other way. JJ Hardy has finally realized that he is not a homerun hitter. Bill Hall makes his money by rocketing lines drives to the right-center field gap. The point I am trying to make, is that this is not a line-up that Webb will be able to control as easily as he has the other teams he has 0'd lately.

Streaky, steaky, streaky.

There are no two streakier teams in baseball than the Brewers and Diamondbacks. The D-backs are not the team they appear to be. For god's sake, they have given up more than 30 more runs then they have scored this year!!!! Well it looks like both of these teams are about to go on runs, and they are not running in the same direction. The Diamondbacks have lost 5 straight games 3 times this season, and lost 6 out of 7 at another point. This team disappears with their bats from time to time, and without McClung (Did anyone hear Mark Grace blow his nuts over McClung until he blew up) they would have had another enemic night at the plate. Byrnes average has plumetted to below .300, Renoylds has strucken out more times that anyone in the league the last week, Young has been reduced to a power-hitter, Upton looks lost now, Jackson is still an underachiever, and the rest of the "kids" have failed to hit lately. O-dog is the only player carrying his weight at the plate.

The wildcard in the equation will be which Jeff Suppan decides to show up tonight. Suppan has struggled on the road...well, he has pretty much struggled everywhere this year. I dont expect Suppan to be a world beater tonight, but I do expect him to be crafty with this young team and get the ball to his bullpen still in the game. The Brewers bullpen struggled very bad on the road for the most part of the season. However, with the addition of Linebrink they have been able to find a more solidified unit down there. With Linebrink, Turnbow, and Cordero to finish the game, I like my chances. They are all prone to blow-up from time to time, but I just need to to be on tonight. All 3 guys have thrown the ball pretty well as of late, and I dont expect the Diamondbacks bats to string together a bunch of hits off them. The Brewers are also using Shouse down there as their left specialist, and he has looked very good in his last couple outings that I remember. He has been used to work full innings, as he has become more effective on righties as of late.

Im sure there are plenty of reasons to take the Dbacks tonight, but there are too many reasons to take a chance on the Brewers at this price.

:dancefool
 

Whatever
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Nov 16, 2004
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My 2nd play of the year in bases. +215 too good to pass up and the Crew is hitting in all spots. Weeks,Hall, Gross, Hardy who have been stale for a while. No need to worry about Braun, future stud, or Fielder. Seems like a good spot for a 4-3 game Crew winning.

Not much of a chance when getting 2-1.

Good luck.
 

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