TOP THREE pitching mismatches on Friday, August 24, 2007

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

These are 18-5 since I started posting them. Here are today's three:

Pitching mistmatches

1. Shawn Hill (WAS) +137 over Jeff Francis (COL)

Hill (Last 3 starts): 1.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
Francis (Last 3 starts): 8.16 ERA, 1.95 WHIP

2. Greg Maddux (SD) -102 over Jamie Moyer (PHI)

Maddux (Last 3 starts): 1.53 ERA, 0.79 WHIP
Moyer (Last 3 starts): 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP

3. C.C. Sabathia (CLE) -168 over Zack Greinke

Sabathia (Last 3 starts): 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Greinke (Last 3 starts): 6.75 ERA, 1.81 WHIP

:toast:

Hal01 · Aug 24, 2007

Mista,

Are you relying mainly on the WHIP or a combination? The reason I asked is that both of these also look attractive (if combining WHIP and ERA) :

Madox (SD) -102 WHIP 0.79 ERA 1.53
Lohse WHIP 1.32 ERA 4.58

and

Clemons (NYY) -140 WHIP 1.61 ERA 3.95
Miller WHIP 2.34 ERA 8.56

Thanks, sorry if this has already been addressed.

theoldschool · Aug 24, 2007

Hal, I have Moyer starting for Phi, and don't have his 3 game WHIP. I show Clemens at +73, slightly behind Harang's +76.

Hal01 · Aug 24, 2007

OS,

Thanks, I was working off of the Covers matchup page and they have Lohse listed and not Moyer.

I understand that Harrang has a slight edge on his WHIP. That is why I was asking Flave if he only uses the WHIP stat and doesn't combine it with the ERA.

Are you the same Old School as at LVA?

robharr9 · Aug 24, 2007

the three pitching mismathes

i thought harang and willis are real close match harang at 4.57 and becket at 4.91. i wouldnt want to touch that game. the mismatches i come up with are brad penny the dodgers and shawn hill and josh beckett do you do something different era with whip or just whip

knowthegame · Aug 24, 2007

MistaFlava said:
These are 18-5 since I started posting them. Here are today's three:

Pitching mistmatches

1. Shawn Hill (WAS) +137 over Jeff Francis (COL)

Hill (Last 3 starts): 1.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
Francis (Last 3 starts): 8.16 ERA, 1.95 WHIP

2. C.C. Sabathia (CLE) -168 over Zack Greinke

Sabathia (Last 3 starts): 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Greinke (Last 3 starts): 6.75 ERA, 1.81 WHIP

3. Aaron Harang (CIN) -130 over Dontrelle Willis (FLA)

Willis (Last 3 starts): 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Harang (Last 3 starts): 4.57 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

:toast:

18-5, NICE WORK!:toast:

Really think Wash. & Reds are solid plays 2day.

theoldschool · Aug 24, 2007

Hal01 said:
OS,

Thanks, I was working off of the Covers matchup page and they have Lohse listed and not Moyer.

I understand that Harrang has a slight edge on his WHIP. That is why I was asking Flave if he only uses the WHIP stat and doesn't combine it with the ERA.

Are you the same Old School as at LVA?

Yes!

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

For the time being guys I have been using WHIP differential. If you use WHIP and ERA differential, you tend to have three really chalky favs to bet on as the TOP THREE mismatches...so its not worth it. The WHIP is always a much better indicator of how well a pitcher has been pitching.

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

Off-topic

If anyone is interested, there is a tennis play this afternoon that is part of a 21-3 system similar to this one. It's in New Haven and the match starts in about 45 minutes or maybe more.

Ivo Karlovic -206 over Mardy Fish

Again this is part of a system similar to the baseball one that is 21-3 this week. Im gonna give it a go. Have not bet on a single one of these yet but have been tracking. You can follow a great live match tracker online for the match.

:103631605

SlashednThrashed · Aug 24, 2007

Nice 78% mark so far with these...

Tailing the Natz play...

GLuck

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

the old school said:
Hal, I have Moyer starting for Phi, and don't have his 3 game WHIP. I show Clemens at +73, slightly behind Harang's +76.

If it is indeed Moyer starting for Philly, that would make San Diego a play here. Can someone confirm that its Maddux vs. Moyer tonight? If so I will ask the mods to make a change.

Addict101 · Aug 24, 2007

Looking good on this new gig you got going. Keep it up.

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

Alright it's confirmed...Moyer is pitching for the Phills so I am asking a mod to change the first post knocking out Cincinnati and putting in San Diego as the #2 play.

Journeyman · Aug 24, 2007

Is this what you wanted Mista?

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

Journeyman said:
Is this what you wanted Mista?

Wow that was fast...thanks a lot Journeyman, really appreciate it!

:toast:

Journeyman · Aug 24, 2007

cool, good luck today.

GreenMachine+ · Aug 24, 2007

Love the plays tonight Mista, Keep up the good work and GL!

Murphy8276 · Aug 24, 2007

a question....jus because phils changed a pitcher means cincy is knocked DOWN in the 3 top plays but it shouldnt be completely out of the top 3??? IMO the clev play shoulda been bumped out if cincy was #2 and CLEV #3 and SD jumped to 2...it puts CLEV at #4 not # 3....mayeb u should re-think this...or expain woudl be perfect.

MistaFlava · Aug 24, 2007

Murphy8276 said:
a question....jus because phils changed a pitcher means cincy is knocked DOWN in the 3 top plays but it shouldnt be completely out of the top 3??? IMO the clev play shoulda been bumped out if cincy was #2 and CLEV #3 and SD jumped to 2...it puts CLEV at #4 not # 3....mayeb u should re-think this...or expain woudl be perfect.

Well seeing how I go based on WHIP differential, Cincinnati is knocked down to #4 but still a decent play.

Feri · Aug 24, 2007

Thanks & BOL Mista! :toast:

TOP THREE pitching mismatches on Friday, August 24, 2007

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