Here are five favorites in which I deem undervalued.
Braves
I think the improved play of the Cardinals in recent series coupled with the improved pitching of Wells were fully reflected in the opening line, and then some. Even with the Braves line moving up since the open, I feel there still exists some value on this road favorite, and or worth betting at a line better than -146.
Although Wells enters this game with three straight quality starts, putting forth such outings against a slumping Brewers lineup and a sub par Nationals and Padres lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Another variable that may affect the sustainability of his improved pitching is the notion of going on ten days rest, a layoff duration in which he has not responded well in the past to. Well’s post break peripherals are not commensurate to the drastic improvement in his post break ERA. The Braves have been one of the better hitting road teams all year, and have enough talent from the left side to give fundamental match up problems for Wells.
Although the Cardinals have been one of the better hitting teams in the league in recent series, being able to face seven sub par pitchers in their last ten games is certainly grounds for inflated numbers. This will not be the case in today’s game going up against a pitcher that looks to have gotten things back on track after going through a stretch a month ago where he did not look comfortable on the mound. Smoltz is coming off his most dominant outing of the season, and has not shown a history of slowdown in recent years, making his off- starts probably just that. The Cardinals improved productivity at the plate has predominantly come off left handed pitching, while potential absence of Puljos depreciates there offensive production substantially, especially having past success against Smoltz.
Rockies
Much like the Cardinals and Wells, Hill and the Nationals are an underdog willing to be backed, creating value on a Rockies team that has quietly (but abruptly) become out of favor once their hot streak subsided. In my opinion, they are the most undervalued team on today’s card.
There is no denying Hills productivity on the mound this season. His pitching peripherals support his low ERA, making a case for potential regression a bit less convincing. That said, one still has to ponder how long an inexperienced pitcher who lacks overpowering stuff can sustain such numbers, and whether we have seen the best of him this season. Pitching at Coors for the first time is also more times than not an embedded disadvantage for a pitcher, and being a ground ball pitcher whose ground ball rate has decreased in each passing month is also not something one wants in this park. Although the Rockies bats have cooled of late, their talent spread throughout the lineup makes them a less likely candidate to stat dormant for long durations. Although Hill provides the Nats a good chance of avoiding a front end pen, it has been their backend that has been the problem in recent series.
Francis has looked much better on the mound than his current form. He has also been known for second half slowdowns. That said, I do not mind backing him when he appears out of favor, especially against a lineup with not much past history against him. Francis has one of the harder deliveries to pick up and is one of the better southpaws in getting hitters to go out of the zone. These are to embedded advantages that should be magnified when facing a young and aggressive Nationals lineup. Francis has shown no ill effects of pitching in this park, while his sinkerball coupled with the Nationals lack of power are ideal in countering this ball parks effects.
Giants
The Giants have quietly been playing some really good baseball in recent series. Lowry has quietly been pitching some really good baseball all year, but has flown under the radar in San Francisco due to Bonds, Zito and his struggles, Cain and his lack of support, and the hype of Lincecum. It is no surprise that he is providing backers with value tonight, especially being at home where he holds one of the highest pitching disparities in baseball. In my opinion, the Giants are worth betting at a price below -121.
Lowry has once again been one of the best and most undervalued home pitchers in baseball this year. Entering this game with an 8-2 record and sub three ERA is clear indication that his home dominance in years past is more than a random trend. Although his high WHIP does not support his low ERA, his improved groundball rate this year allows him to get away with his high walk propensity. So should facing an aggressive lineup whose productivity drastically drops on the road. Lowry is also backed by an underrated bullpen that finally appears to have found an 8th inning guy to compliment their underrated closer, forcing the Brewers slumping lineup to face quality pitching throughout.
As expected, Vargas fast started (which was accompanied with a high whip) was not sustainable, as his fly ball propensity could only hold off his high walk rate for so long. His five plus post break ERA and near seven August ERA is more to form. Vargas’s walk rate continues to tread dangerous levels, while his strike out rate declines, his fly ball rate, well hit rate and home run rate increase. Facing a team who has carried their ownage against him from Arizona to Milwaukee is also not ideal for a struggling pitcher. Nor is being backed by a bullpen with a few pitchers that appear lost on the mound in recent series.
Devil Rays
Some can argue how can the team with the worst record in baseball be favored against one of the hotter teams in the league and against a pitcher who possesses one of the lowest ERA’s in the league. In my opinion, strong fundamental indicators show the Drays should be favored and also considered at a price better than -126.
Shields appears to have gotten things back on track, after a dry spell caused by a few things including improper mechanics. Four straight quality starts, including ones against the Indians, Tigers and Red Sox shows Shields has a good chance to overmatch one of the more anemic lineups in the league. Despite possessing unimpressive numbers against the A’s in a small sample, his style of pitching is ideal against a lineup that tries to draw walks and forces a pitcher to throw strikes. His pitching style is also ideal while being backed by the worst bullpen in the league, as his pitching for contact style allows him to eat up more innings than Kazmir. With Wheeler and Reyes slowly getting things back on track, and improved pitching of Glover, the Drays back end is not as vulnerable as it once was.
DiNardo’s solid season lacks sustainability. His substantially decreasing groundball rate coupled with his increased well hit rate makes him a less likely candidate to get out of jams that allowed him to produce such a low ERA. Pitching on a fast carpet and against a fast lineup makes his pitching style less effective. The Drays lineup is still talented and potent against southpaws, and could overmatch an overrated A’s bullpen.
Twins
I rarely go in this price range on a road team, especially when backing a public darling like Santana, but this is mostly a go-against a pitcher I have been going against for a couple months now in Guthrie, as it appears that his line still has not caught up to his current form. Although most places have the Twins at a price above my -160 price target a couple have (and a couple more should have) them below this price prior to first pitch.
Santana’s dominance doesn’t not have to be mentioned in great detail. It is there for all to see. Coming off the most dominant outing of the season, being a notorious second half pitcher whose road productivity has been solid all year, and having just a few more starts before contract talks gives him enough factors to feed off that performance. So does facing a team prone to tired bats coming off the Rangers series. Backed by a top tier bullpen should give the Orioles little scoring opportunities to back their struggling starter.
As expected, Guthrie was unable to keep his dominant numbers sustained. Not expected was the drastic drop off, and five plus post break ERA where he has allowed a home run every four innings. Mechanics, fatigue and a lack of confidence seem to all be weighing on his regression. Facing a lineup with enough left handed talent to take advantage of his steadily increasing ISO against such hitters should allow the Twins to get enough run support for Santana.
Braves
I think the improved play of the Cardinals in recent series coupled with the improved pitching of Wells were fully reflected in the opening line, and then some. Even with the Braves line moving up since the open, I feel there still exists some value on this road favorite, and or worth betting at a line better than -146.
Although Wells enters this game with three straight quality starts, putting forth such outings against a slumping Brewers lineup and a sub par Nationals and Padres lineup leaves a lot to be desired. Another variable that may affect the sustainability of his improved pitching is the notion of going on ten days rest, a layoff duration in which he has not responded well in the past to. Well’s post break peripherals are not commensurate to the drastic improvement in his post break ERA. The Braves have been one of the better hitting road teams all year, and have enough talent from the left side to give fundamental match up problems for Wells.
Although the Cardinals have been one of the better hitting teams in the league in recent series, being able to face seven sub par pitchers in their last ten games is certainly grounds for inflated numbers. This will not be the case in today’s game going up against a pitcher that looks to have gotten things back on track after going through a stretch a month ago where he did not look comfortable on the mound. Smoltz is coming off his most dominant outing of the season, and has not shown a history of slowdown in recent years, making his off- starts probably just that. The Cardinals improved productivity at the plate has predominantly come off left handed pitching, while potential absence of Puljos depreciates there offensive production substantially, especially having past success against Smoltz.
Rockies
Much like the Cardinals and Wells, Hill and the Nationals are an underdog willing to be backed, creating value on a Rockies team that has quietly (but abruptly) become out of favor once their hot streak subsided. In my opinion, they are the most undervalued team on today’s card.
There is no denying Hills productivity on the mound this season. His pitching peripherals support his low ERA, making a case for potential regression a bit less convincing. That said, one still has to ponder how long an inexperienced pitcher who lacks overpowering stuff can sustain such numbers, and whether we have seen the best of him this season. Pitching at Coors for the first time is also more times than not an embedded disadvantage for a pitcher, and being a ground ball pitcher whose ground ball rate has decreased in each passing month is also not something one wants in this park. Although the Rockies bats have cooled of late, their talent spread throughout the lineup makes them a less likely candidate to stat dormant for long durations. Although Hill provides the Nats a good chance of avoiding a front end pen, it has been their backend that has been the problem in recent series.
Francis has looked much better on the mound than his current form. He has also been known for second half slowdowns. That said, I do not mind backing him when he appears out of favor, especially against a lineup with not much past history against him. Francis has one of the harder deliveries to pick up and is one of the better southpaws in getting hitters to go out of the zone. These are to embedded advantages that should be magnified when facing a young and aggressive Nationals lineup. Francis has shown no ill effects of pitching in this park, while his sinkerball coupled with the Nationals lack of power are ideal in countering this ball parks effects.
Giants
The Giants have quietly been playing some really good baseball in recent series. Lowry has quietly been pitching some really good baseball all year, but has flown under the radar in San Francisco due to Bonds, Zito and his struggles, Cain and his lack of support, and the hype of Lincecum. It is no surprise that he is providing backers with value tonight, especially being at home where he holds one of the highest pitching disparities in baseball. In my opinion, the Giants are worth betting at a price below -121.
Lowry has once again been one of the best and most undervalued home pitchers in baseball this year. Entering this game with an 8-2 record and sub three ERA is clear indication that his home dominance in years past is more than a random trend. Although his high WHIP does not support his low ERA, his improved groundball rate this year allows him to get away with his high walk propensity. So should facing an aggressive lineup whose productivity drastically drops on the road. Lowry is also backed by an underrated bullpen that finally appears to have found an 8th inning guy to compliment their underrated closer, forcing the Brewers slumping lineup to face quality pitching throughout.
As expected, Vargas fast started (which was accompanied with a high whip) was not sustainable, as his fly ball propensity could only hold off his high walk rate for so long. His five plus post break ERA and near seven August ERA is more to form. Vargas’s walk rate continues to tread dangerous levels, while his strike out rate declines, his fly ball rate, well hit rate and home run rate increase. Facing a team who has carried their ownage against him from Arizona to Milwaukee is also not ideal for a struggling pitcher. Nor is being backed by a bullpen with a few pitchers that appear lost on the mound in recent series.
Devil Rays
Some can argue how can the team with the worst record in baseball be favored against one of the hotter teams in the league and against a pitcher who possesses one of the lowest ERA’s in the league. In my opinion, strong fundamental indicators show the Drays should be favored and also considered at a price better than -126.
Shields appears to have gotten things back on track, after a dry spell caused by a few things including improper mechanics. Four straight quality starts, including ones against the Indians, Tigers and Red Sox shows Shields has a good chance to overmatch one of the more anemic lineups in the league. Despite possessing unimpressive numbers against the A’s in a small sample, his style of pitching is ideal against a lineup that tries to draw walks and forces a pitcher to throw strikes. His pitching style is also ideal while being backed by the worst bullpen in the league, as his pitching for contact style allows him to eat up more innings than Kazmir. With Wheeler and Reyes slowly getting things back on track, and improved pitching of Glover, the Drays back end is not as vulnerable as it once was.
DiNardo’s solid season lacks sustainability. His substantially decreasing groundball rate coupled with his increased well hit rate makes him a less likely candidate to get out of jams that allowed him to produce such a low ERA. Pitching on a fast carpet and against a fast lineup makes his pitching style less effective. The Drays lineup is still talented and potent against southpaws, and could overmatch an overrated A’s bullpen.
Twins
I rarely go in this price range on a road team, especially when backing a public darling like Santana, but this is mostly a go-against a pitcher I have been going against for a couple months now in Guthrie, as it appears that his line still has not caught up to his current form. Although most places have the Twins at a price above my -160 price target a couple have (and a couple more should have) them below this price prior to first pitch.
Santana’s dominance doesn’t not have to be mentioned in great detail. It is there for all to see. Coming off the most dominant outing of the season, being a notorious second half pitcher whose road productivity has been solid all year, and having just a few more starts before contract talks gives him enough factors to feed off that performance. So does facing a team prone to tired bats coming off the Rangers series. Backed by a top tier bullpen should give the Orioles little scoring opportunities to back their struggling starter.
As expected, Guthrie was unable to keep his dominant numbers sustained. Not expected was the drastic drop off, and five plus post break ERA where he has allowed a home run every four innings. Mechanics, fatigue and a lack of confidence seem to all be weighing on his regression. Facing a lineup with enough left handed talent to take advantage of his steadily increasing ISO against such hitters should allow the Twins to get enough run support for Santana.
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