Ben Burns
MLB Personal Favorite
Philadelphia Phillies
Game: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 8/25/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. The Padres grabbed yesterday's opener but the Phillies should have the advantage this evening. Lohse is 5-3 with a stellar 2.87 ERA in 10 "home" starts with his team going 7-3. Meanwhile, Hensley is 1-2 with an awful 9.76 ERA and 2.309 WHIP in three road starts. In eight starts overall, he has an awful 7.58 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. Despite yesterday's result, the Phillies remain an outstanding 14-6 their last 20 meetings with the Padres. They average a full run more per game than do the Padres while hitting nearly 30 points better. Yes, some of that is certainly caused by the difference in ballparks. However, I feel that the Phillies have a better hitting lineup, regardless of venue. The Phillies are 18-8 when playing at home with an over/under line of either 10 or 10.5. Look for them to get some immediate payback for yesterday's embarrassment. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns
MLB TV Total of the Month
UNDER dodgers/mets
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Game Time: 8/25/2007 3:55:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mets and Dodgers to finish UNDER the total. Stults has been strong in two starts for the Dodgers. He faced these same Mets in his first start and allowed two runs and five hits through 5 1/3 innings. Note that the game finished UNDER the total. He followed that up by allowing only two hits and two runs through seven innings vs. Colorado. That gives him a stellar 2.92 ERA and a miniscule 0.649 WHIP with an impressive 14 Ks and just one walk. Its also worth mentioning that Stults dominated the Mets when he faced them here last season, allowing only two hits and one run through six complete innings. That makes him 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his two starts vs. New York! Meanwhile, Hernandez has been excellent at home, going 3-1 (team is 6-2) with a outstanding 2.42 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. The UNDER was a perfect 8-0 in those games. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the UNDER improves to 13-7 when the Mets were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. *TV Total of the Month
Ben Burns
#1 Game of the Week BLOWOUT
HOUSTON
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 8/25/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. "Motivation" plays a critical role in which team covers the spread and Week 3 of the preseason is no exception. That being said, I feel that the Texans will be the more motivated team tonight. For starters, they're playing at home. As Cowboys' Coach Phillips remarked: "...I think there will be a big crowd. I think they'll be into it. That will help their team some, as far as motivation." Further motivation will be provided by the fact that the Cowboys are "America's Team" while the Texans are "second fiddle" in their very own state AND by the fact that the Cowboys routed the Texans 34-6 last season. At the time, that was Kubiak's worst loss as a head coach and it's safe to say that he hasn't forgotten. Yes, the Cowboys looked impressive in their 31-20 home victory over the Broncos last week. However, the Texans were at least as impressive in their 33-20 road win at Arizona, scoring points in every quarter. That blowout win brought them to 4-1-1 ATS in six preseason games under Kubiak. Houston's new starting quarterback Matt Schaub has always excelled in preseason and he was nearly flawless last week. Indeed, the former-Falcon completed 9-of-12 for 108 yards and ran 5 yards for a score. While Schaub will see his most playing time yet, it's worth mentioning that he is also supported by a solid rotation of backups. The Texans are a more talented team than most people give them credit for. They closed out last regular season with a pair of victories, including one over the Colts. They also won their final preseason home game last season. Look for another huge effort as they step up and score the upset. *Game of the Week
Ben Burns
NFLX Contrarian Game of the Month
ARIZONA
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 8/25/2007 10:00:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. The betting public will likely see the Chargers laying such a small number and be quick to jump all over them. After all, they were the best team last season and they just won convincingly last week. I feel that the Cardinals will be the more motivated team tonight though and I look for them to rise to the occasion with their best effort of the preseason. For starters, they're playing at home vs. one of the best teams in football. As they did in last season's near-upset over the previously undefeated Bears, the Cardinals will view this as a chance to show that they are capable of competing with the league's elite teams. Additionally, the Cardinals have a new coach, are coming off a poor year AND are 0-2 in the preseason. They badly need a victory to give the team and the fans some confidence heading into the season. Note that we're getting some additional value here due to last week's results. The Cardinals lost by double-digits to Houston while the Chargers blew out the Rams on National TV. In Turner’s last head coaching job (with the Raiders in 04 and 05) his team went 0-2 ATS in Week 3. Look for his team to stumble again as the highly motivated home underdogs score the upset and improve to 4-1 ATS their last five preseaon home games with a total ranging from 38.5 to 42. *Contrarian Game of the Month
MLB Personal Favorite
Philadelphia Phillies
Game: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 8/25/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. The Padres grabbed yesterday's opener but the Phillies should have the advantage this evening. Lohse is 5-3 with a stellar 2.87 ERA in 10 "home" starts with his team going 7-3. Meanwhile, Hensley is 1-2 with an awful 9.76 ERA and 2.309 WHIP in three road starts. In eight starts overall, he has an awful 7.58 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. Despite yesterday's result, the Phillies remain an outstanding 14-6 their last 20 meetings with the Padres. They average a full run more per game than do the Padres while hitting nearly 30 points better. Yes, some of that is certainly caused by the difference in ballparks. However, I feel that the Phillies have a better hitting lineup, regardless of venue. The Phillies are 18-8 when playing at home with an over/under line of either 10 or 10.5. Look for them to get some immediate payback for yesterday's embarrassment. *Personal Favorite
Ben Burns
MLB TV Total of the Month
UNDER dodgers/mets
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Game Time: 8/25/2007 3:55:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Mets and Dodgers to finish UNDER the total. Stults has been strong in two starts for the Dodgers. He faced these same Mets in his first start and allowed two runs and five hits through 5 1/3 innings. Note that the game finished UNDER the total. He followed that up by allowing only two hits and two runs through seven innings vs. Colorado. That gives him a stellar 2.92 ERA and a miniscule 0.649 WHIP with an impressive 14 Ks and just one walk. Its also worth mentioning that Stults dominated the Mets when he faced them here last season, allowing only two hits and one run through six complete innings. That makes him 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his two starts vs. New York! Meanwhile, Hernandez has been excellent at home, going 3-1 (team is 6-2) with a outstanding 2.42 ERA and 0.981 WHIP. The UNDER was a perfect 8-0 in those games. Look for more of the same this afternoon as the UNDER improves to 13-7 when the Mets were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. *TV Total of the Month
Ben Burns
#1 Game of the Week BLOWOUT
HOUSTON
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 8/25/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. "Motivation" plays a critical role in which team covers the spread and Week 3 of the preseason is no exception. That being said, I feel that the Texans will be the more motivated team tonight. For starters, they're playing at home. As Cowboys' Coach Phillips remarked: "...I think there will be a big crowd. I think they'll be into it. That will help their team some, as far as motivation." Further motivation will be provided by the fact that the Cowboys are "America's Team" while the Texans are "second fiddle" in their very own state AND by the fact that the Cowboys routed the Texans 34-6 last season. At the time, that was Kubiak's worst loss as a head coach and it's safe to say that he hasn't forgotten. Yes, the Cowboys looked impressive in their 31-20 home victory over the Broncos last week. However, the Texans were at least as impressive in their 33-20 road win at Arizona, scoring points in every quarter. That blowout win brought them to 4-1-1 ATS in six preseason games under Kubiak. Houston's new starting quarterback Matt Schaub has always excelled in preseason and he was nearly flawless last week. Indeed, the former-Falcon completed 9-of-12 for 108 yards and ran 5 yards for a score. While Schaub will see his most playing time yet, it's worth mentioning that he is also supported by a solid rotation of backups. The Texans are a more talented team than most people give them credit for. They closed out last regular season with a pair of victories, including one over the Colts. They also won their final preseason home game last season. Look for another huge effort as they step up and score the upset. *Game of the Week
Ben Burns
NFLX Contrarian Game of the Month
ARIZONA
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 8/25/2007 10:00:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. The betting public will likely see the Chargers laying such a small number and be quick to jump all over them. After all, they were the best team last season and they just won convincingly last week. I feel that the Cardinals will be the more motivated team tonight though and I look for them to rise to the occasion with their best effort of the preseason. For starters, they're playing at home vs. one of the best teams in football. As they did in last season's near-upset over the previously undefeated Bears, the Cardinals will view this as a chance to show that they are capable of competing with the league's elite teams. Additionally, the Cardinals have a new coach, are coming off a poor year AND are 0-2 in the preseason. They badly need a victory to give the team and the fans some confidence heading into the season. Note that we're getting some additional value here due to last week's results. The Cardinals lost by double-digits to Houston while the Chargers blew out the Rams on National TV. In Turner’s last head coaching job (with the Raiders in 04 and 05) his team went 0-2 ATS in Week 3. Look for his team to stumble again as the highly motivated home underdogs score the upset and improve to 4-1 ATS their last five preseaon home games with a total ranging from 38.5 to 42. *Contrarian Game of the Month
