$uede's Play: Holy Sh** do we have value today!!

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"Mann up!"
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Jul 23, 2007
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Ask yourself if you would want to start this rookie lefthander against a team (the Pirates) who are hitting .373 against lefties the last 10 games, averaging 7.4 runs per game:

"Troy Patton will make his major league debut for the Astros. The 21-year-old left-hander went 4-2 with a 4.59 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Round Rock after he was promoted from Double-A Corpus Christi, where he was 6-6 with a 2.99 ERA in 16 starts.

"I like his stuff," Garner told the Astros' official Web site. "I like his ability to compete. He's got good control, he has good pitches. This is an opportunity for him to come up to the big leagues and get his feet wet."

Patton has struggled in his two most recent starts, yielding 10 runs over 11 innings"

Right...he's going to get his ass killed tonight! He put up those shitty numbers in the minors. His competition, Matt Morris, hasn't been very impressive this year, but with this offense behind him he only needs to keep the Pirates in the game. I also like his last start on the road in hard-hitting Colorado:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=front-label>Matt Morris (R) </TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans width="13%" bgColor=#ff0000>Date</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans width="12%" bgColor=#ff0000>Opposition</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=middle width="10%" bgColor=#ff0000>Scr</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="10%" bgColor=#ff0000>Line</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>W/L</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>H</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>R</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>ER</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>SO</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>BB</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>HR</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>PIT</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>P/IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>G/F</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>8/20/2007</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>@ COL</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=middle>4-2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>152/11.5</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>W/U</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>6.2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>7</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>4</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>104 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>15.6 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3.00</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
And this is good enough:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=front-label>
Matt Morris (R) Previous Starts vs. Houston

</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans width="13%" bgColor=#ff0000>Date</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans width="12%" bgColor=#ff0000>Opposition</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=middle width="10%" bgColor=#ff0000>Scr</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="10%" bgColor=#ff0000>Line</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>W/L</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>H</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>R</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>ER</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>SO</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>BB</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>HR</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>PIT</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>P/IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right width="5%" bgColor=#ff0000>G/F</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top align=left><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>5/15/2007</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>(SF) @ HOU</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=middle>5-6</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>-106/9</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>L/O</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>6.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>6</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>91 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>15.2 </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>0.70</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here are ALOT of things I like:


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
-Last 10 Pitt is 7-3, Astros 3-7
-Last 10 Houston is hitting .243 against righties while Pitt is hitting .347 against lefties (the rook Patton)
-PIT are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
-HOU are 2-7 in their last 9 Sat. games.
-HOU is averaging only 3.2 runs per game last 10, compared to Pitt 7.4
-The MONEY STAT: PIT are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Excuse me while I go nail this bit**!!:toast:
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
545
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It's at -110!

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=8 width=566 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=100>Date placed:
Aug 25, 2007 7:47a</TD><TD vAlign=top width=372><!-- Display wager type, e.g. Single, Parlay, Teaser -->Single <!-- Display wager reference number -->#82153274 <!-- Display picks --><!-- filename = /sportsbook/pickOpen.jsp --><!-- Display event type, line type -->Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
NATIONAL LEAGUE

<!-- Display choice and line value, e.g. +3.5, -140 -->(903) Pittsburgh Pirates -110 <!-- Display event date -->Sat@7:05p
<!-- Competitor -->Competitor: (904) Houston Astros
<!-- Display point adjustment -->
<TABLE><COLGROUP><COL class=wgrConditionsBullet><COL class=wgrEventConditions><TBODY><TR><!-- Display conditions --><TR><TD>* </TD><TD>Matt Morris (R) must throw first pitch for Pittsburgh Pirates or this pick is NO ACTION.</TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>* </TD><TD>Troy Patton (L) must throw first pitch for Houston Astros or this pick is NO ACTION.</TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- Display risk/win amount -->Risk $520.00 to win $472.73
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
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Just a side thought: I think Matt Morris is going to tap into and feed off of the excitement in the Bucs's dugout these last 10 games, to pitch one of his best games of the year.
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
545
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If it goes to the bullpen, GOOD!

Look at this shit:
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ff0000 colSpan=8>Bullpens | In Depth </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb> </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>
Total
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb rowSpan=7> </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>
Available
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb> </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>WHIP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>ERA</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>WHIP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>ERA</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>PIT</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>290.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.27</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3.41</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>136.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.29</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3.57</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Last 3</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>19.1</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>0.93</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>0.00</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>10.2</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>0.94</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>0.00</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb> </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>WHIP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>ERA</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>IP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>WHIP</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right bgColor=#ffdccb>ERA</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>HOU</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>305.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.51</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>4.46</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>248.1</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.49</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>4.28</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Last 3</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>35.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.66</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>4.11</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>20.0</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>1.50</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans align=right>3.15</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Yes, that says 0.00 ERA for the Pirates
:money8:
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
545
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Never a good idea to fade first-time starters. Just does not work over time.

I'm not doing it over time, I'm doing it tonight:

This kid is being introduced to the majors against the highest scoring team in baseball during the month of August. If you tell me that isn't worth a -110 play, then I have to disagree.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2005
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there is value on a pitcher (morris) who has given up 5 or more runs in 7 of his last 9 starts? he has been a shell of himself lately. shouldnt you be getting (+) money on a pitcher throwing this poorly?
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
545
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there is value on a pitcher (morris) who has given up 5 or more runs in 7 of his last 9 starts? he has been a shell of himself lately. shouldnt you be getting (+) money on a pitcher throwing this poorly?

He pitched great in his last road start, I'm banking that he will come close to that performance tonight. Bucs seem to have everything going lately, why can't he have another good start?

Everything is a gamble, but I'm comfortable with Morris in this situation tonight. We'll see.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 22, 2007
Messages
827
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like your style Suede, Pirates playing as well as anybody and have the momentum from last nights win. Morris is tough to trust, might be a two for one bet as the over looks good also. GL
 

New member
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
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Houston had 16 hits and left 37 on base...Play On" any MLB favorite off a 2+ run loss in which they had at least 10 hits and left 10 or more runners on base. 89-41 +3085 units

JUST A STAT.
GOOD LUCK.
 

"Mann up!"
Joined
Jul 23, 2007
Messages
545
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Pirates.com

Scouting Report:
Pirates: Morris had perhaps his best start for the Pirates on Monday in Colorado, holding the Rockies to two runs (one earned) on seven hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. He had command of all his pitches, using his breaking pitches to effectively slow down the Rockies' bat speed, then coming back later in the game with his fast ball, which breezed past the Rockies bats before they could adjust. He was especially effective at inducing ground balls, securing 12 of his 20 outs through grounders, an essential ingredient for success at Coors Field. Though he notched his first quality start for the Bucs, he did not figure in the decision, an 11th inning, 4-2 win.

Astros: Triple-A lefty Troy Patton looks to have the inside track on receiving a spot start in place of Jason Jennings, but the Astros have not yet announced a decision. The highly-touted 21-year-old lefty is 4-2 with a 4.59 ERA over eight starts for Triple-A Round Rock. He struggled in his two most recent outings, allowing six runs over five innings on Aug. 19 and four runs over six frames on Aug. 14.
 

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Dec 30, 2005
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Just a side thought: I think Matt Morris is going to tap into and feed off of the excitement in the Bucs's dugout these last 10 games, to pitch one of his best games of the year.

agreed. morris is a gamer. no doubt hes gonna be bringing it here. big play for me. when hes pitched well this year his stuff has been almost unhittable.
 

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