Can U EXPloit your LOcal's -110 on NFL?

kimchee7270 · Aug 25, 2007

All this talk about taking advantage of our locals ...

The NFL ...

a local will most likely just have seattle -7 (-110 vig )

the true line is most likely SEattle -7 -125 vig or some offshore books might even bump seattle -7n ahalf even ..

The Question is NOt To MIDdle this action , bUT IF I Consistenly BET on these kinds of opportunities with SEATtle -7 at a reduced perceived VIg , WILL It PAY OFF in The Long Run Or am I just Sppinin My Wheels ?

MLB

WE;ve Talked Before about this One with totals

let's say the o/u Yanks Detr is 10 by the local at the standard 10 %.... when the real line is 10 -125 on the Over.....If You Bet The OVER You are saving 15 % juice if you Lose ....So , I'm guessing Mathematically, THERE has To Be An Advantage For The players who consistenly bet every opportunity ...

thoughts please on the real or fake exploitation ! this maybe sumthin goodfor all of us if it works !:money8:

bellyputter · Aug 25, 2007

Trust me, if offshore they are dealing some form of 7.5, your local will be at 9.

dimeplayersonly · Aug 25, 2007

a local will most likely just have seattle -7 (-110 vig )

the true line is most likely SEattle -7 -125 vig or some offshore books might even bump seattle -7n ahalf even ..

The Question is NOt To MIDdle this action , bUT IF I Consistenly BET on these kinds of opportunities with SEATtle -7 at a reduced perceived VIg , WILL It PAY OFF in The Long Run Or am I just Sppinin My Wheels ?

taking +7 even or +05 is the better choice imo

kimchee7270 · Aug 25, 2007

dimeplayersonly said:
taking +7 even or +05 is the better choice imo

why's that , dime ?

...besides booking the action , I'm talking if you are betting it !

dimeplayersonly · Aug 25, 2007

i am talking about from a bettors viewpoint...

plus money on key numbers is a personal choice.... my own betting philisophy...

kimchee7270 · Aug 26, 2007

dimeplayersonly said:
i am talking about from a bettors viewpoint...

plus money on key numbers is a personal choice.... my own betting philisophy...

thanx...but what r your thoughts on baseball totals ?

ganchrow · Aug 26, 2007

duplicate post

ganchrow · Aug 26, 2007

kimchee7270 said:
thanx...but what r your thoughts on baseball totals ?<script> function OpenCalc() { var winTool = window.open('http://bettingtools.sbrforum.com/newcalc/rx-half-point.html', '_blank', 'width=215, height=275, resizable=yes, status=no'); winTool.focus(); } </script>

My <a href=http://www.therxforum.com onClick="OpenCalc(); return false;">half-point calculator</a> might give you some ideas on how best to consider this.

kimchee7270 · Aug 26, 2007

ganchrow said:
My half-point calculator might give you some ideas on how best to consider this.

thanx ..tryin to figure it out, but there is defintelyan advantage:money8:

MrJ · Aug 26, 2007

thoughts please on the real or fake exploitation

Real. The fake exploitation is low vig.

The Question is NOt To MIDdle this action

Middle when you don't know which position to take, and also for amounts over what you want to risk (ie even if you bet one side, if there's a middle you should also bet that).

let's say the o/u Yanks Detr is 10 by the local at the standard 10 %.... when the real line is 10 -125 on the Over.....If You Bet The OVER You are saving 15 % juice if you Lose ....So , I'm guessing Mathematically, THERE has To Be An Advantage For The players who consistenly bet every opportunity ...

In a simple, static market it would. You'd be betting a -115 line at -110. Problem is it's not so simple in the real world since you have to deal with a dynamic and deceptive market. Just because the market is currently at -125/+105 does not mean -115 is the fair line, so you can't just blindly bet -110 at your local. What if offshore was -125, local -110 but +110 was available throughout the day? Now you're betting -110/-110 into a market of +110/+105. What seems like a good number might show to be ordinary if you look at the market as a whole.

kimchee7270 · Aug 26, 2007

Mr J said:
thoughts please on the real or fake exploitation

Real. The fake exploitation is low vig.

The Question is NOt To MIDdle this action

Middle when you don't know which position to take, and also for amounts over what you want to risk (ie even if you bet one side, if there's a middle you should also bet that).

let's say the o/u Yanks Detr is 10 by the local at the standard 10 %.... when the real line is 10 -125 on the Over.....If You Bet The OVER You are saving 15 % juice if you Lose ....So , I'm guessing Mathematically, THERE has To Be An Advantage For The players who consistenly bet every opportunity ...

In a simple, static market it would. You'd be betting a -115 line at -110. Problem is it's not so simple in the real world since you have to deal with a dynamic and deceptive market. Just because the market is currently at -125/+105 does not mean -115 is the fair line, so you can't just blindly bet -110 at your local. What if offshore was -125, local -110 but +110 was available throughout the day? Now you're betting -110/-110 into a market of +110/+105. What seems like a good number might show to be ordinary if you look at the market as a whole.

fvck ...today i went 0 and 3 with this shit....

local greek/bodog/offshore

11n a half phils 11

9 a's 8 n a half

8n a half sfran 8

i bet the UNders on all 3 games with my local ...

every fvckn one lost.! thought I was getting an advantage ..bs "sharp' action !:nopityA: uppy:

tell me there is a way to win !:money8: :monsters-

blueedwards · Aug 26, 2007

kimchee7270 said:
fvck ...today i went 0 and 3 with this shit....

local greek/bodog/offshore

11n a half phils 11

9 a's 8 n a half

8n a half sfran 8

i bet the UNders on all 3 games with my local ...

every fvckn one lost.! thought I was getting an advantage ..bs "sharp' action !:nopityA: uppy:

tell me there is a way to win !:money8: :monsters-

no, there is no way to win. quit now and make love to your underaged, oriental wife.

lapdance · Aug 26, 2007

No. You People Don't Give Locals Enough Credit. I Know A Few That Are Very Sharp.

kimchee7270 · Aug 26, 2007

blue edwards said:
no, there is no way to win. quit now and make love to your underaged, oriental wife.

:nohead:

hno:

i'm gonna play pitts -3 ....the offshore line is really -3 -125:money8:

hno:

uppy:

whalewager · Aug 26, 2007

lapdance said:
No. You People Don't Give Locals Enough Credit. I Know A Few That Are Very Sharp.

Dead fn on.

MrJ · Aug 26, 2007

Kim Chee, baseball lines are volatile so you can't just compare what you got at your local vs what offshore had now, or 1hr ago or whenever. You also can't just list totals without the price.

kimchee7270 · Aug 27, 2007

Mr J said:
Kim Chee, baseball lines are volatile so you can't just compare what you got at your local vs what offshore had now, or 1hr ago or whenever. You also can't just list totals without the price.

the local offers it at 12/30 n doesn't change it , while i look for the number when it goes off...
ex...sf/milw local offers 8 n a half at 12/30 at -110

the greek had it at 8 n a half under -120 at 12/30

by 3:00 o clock the sf/mil line was 8 flat

i thought i was getting a good half a point when the actual line went off at 8 instead of the 8 n a half my local offered...so i played the under 8 n a half with my local n still lost !

i just can't see how this is not an advantage for the players...something we can allexploit....i played pittsburgh -3 standard juice with my local n that won when i shouldve really had to lay pitts-3 minus 125 vig...

please share your thoughts people 'cause if we can all get an edge...my god...let's all make sum fvckn money !!!:money8:

i just want some hope n logic that we can exploit sumthin...why the fvck not ? if its doable, we can all get an edge and make sum fvckn money !:money8:

MrJ · Aug 27, 2007

'cause if we can all get an edge...my god...let's all make sum fvckn money

If we could all get an edge I wouldn't be betting.

kimchee7270 · Aug 27, 2007

Mr J said:
'cause if we can all get an edge...my god...let's all make sum fvckn money

If we could all get an edge I wouldn't be betting.

:lolBIG:

that's whati'm talking about....if there's a system with an advantage , take advantage of it !

dimeplayersonly · Aug 27, 2007

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by lapdance

No. You People Don't Give Locals Enough Credit. I Know A Few That Are Very Sharp.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Dead fn on.

the "heaviest sharp action" is still being wagered stateside....always has

Can U EXPloit your LOcal's -110 on NFL?

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