Tom Freese Blue Line Club MLB 10* 'Total' of the Month Wednesday.
Tom Freese is an incredible 26-11 with his MLB Over/Under Plays this year. On Wednesday Tom is releasing his 10* 'Total' of the Month. It's backed by a 65% System. Get it now and TOTALLY BURY the Sports Books.
Matchup: Minnesota at Cleveland
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SANTANA, J vs. (L) SABATHIA, C.C.
Play: Under (7.5-120)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: August 29, 2007 @ 8:08:16 AM EDT
We like a very low scoring game here as both C.C. Sabathia of Cleveland and Johan Santana of Minnesota have a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last 3 starts overall. That puts them in an Under System that is 65% this year. Both Sabathia and Santana have a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk in their last 3 starts against the teams their facing tonight. Sabathia has allowed just 4 runs total in 3 starts vs. the Twins this year. Santana has allowed 9 runs total in 4 starts vs. the Indians. 10* 'Total' of the Month Play On 'Under' (Sabathia vs. Santana)
Tom Freese is an incredible 26-11 with his MLB Over/Under Plays this year. On Wednesday Tom is releasing his 10* 'Total' of the Month. It's backed by a 65% System. Get it now and TOTALLY BURY the Sports Books.
Matchup: Minnesota at Cleveland
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SANTANA, J vs. (L) SABATHIA, C.C.
Play: Under (7.5-120)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: August 29, 2007 @ 8:08:16 AM EDT
We like a very low scoring game here as both C.C. Sabathia of Cleveland and Johan Santana of Minnesota have a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last 3 starts overall. That puts them in an Under System that is 65% this year. Both Sabathia and Santana have a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk in their last 3 starts against the teams their facing tonight. Sabathia has allowed just 4 runs total in 3 starts vs. the Twins this year. Santana has allowed 9 runs total in 4 starts vs. the Indians. 10* 'Total' of the Month Play On 'Under' (Sabathia vs. Santana)
WILL COVER 5* GOM
5*****STAR ALERT - Yet to lose a 5*Star release this MLB season, Will has "ISOLATED" a play that requires his "HIGHEST RATING" as his Game of the Month. Will stands 37-21...64% on his Best Bets this season and he'll "CASH AGAIN" on Wednesday....5*****STAR STYLE!
Play on : Boston Red Sox (Beckett) over N.Y.Yankees(Clemens)
5*****STAR ALERT - Yet to lose a 5*Star release this MLB season, Will has "ISOLATED" a play that requires his "HIGHEST RATING" as his Game of the Month. Will stands 37-21...64% on his Best Bets this season and he'll "CASH AGAIN" on Wednesday....5*****STAR STYLE!
Play on : Boston Red Sox (Beckett) over N.Y.Yankees(Clemens)
Michael Cannon Money Train
15 Dime
REDS (With Harang as listed pitcher)
Take the Reds tonight at a near even price for the road win over the Pirates.
Aaron Harang will start for the Reds and I don’t see the Pirates getting through to him at all. The right-hander is 13-3 on the season, including 3-0 in his last four starts. He’s 2-0 with a 4.98 ERA in three starts against the Pirates this season, and 10-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 16 career starts.
Those are numbers that the Pirates just can’t stack up against.
Ian Snell will start for Pittsburgh and he is still trying to get on track after a disastrous start to the second half of the season. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts against the Reds this year, and 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA in six lifetime starts against them. Snell has lost two straight against the Reds.
Cincinnati was swept in their doubleheader against the Bucs last night, but Pittsburgh threw two left-handers against the Reds which neutralized the Reds’ best hitters, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.
Take the Reds as they grab the road win tonight behind Harang.
5 Dime
MARINERS (With Weaver and Hernandez as listed pitchers)
Take the Mariners this afternoon as the small home chalk for the win over the Angels.
The success of the Angels against the Mariners this year really works to our advantage, as this pitching matchup greatly favors Seattle.
Trust me; this number would be a lot higher if Seattle had a bit more success against Los Angeles this year.
Felix Hernandez has won his last four decisions and is 4-0 in his last six starts. He is the unquestioned ace of the staff and I expect him to stop the M’s slide today with a strong outing.
The Angels will start Jered Weaver and he has been tagged by the Mariners this year. The right-hander has allowed 11 runs and 21 hits in just 10 2-3 innings this year against Seattle. He has a 9.41 ERA in his last three starts against Seattle. Weaver is also 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts.
Take the Mariners as they avoid the sweep at the hands of the Angels with the home win.
DIAMONDBACKS (With Owings and Maddux as listed pitchers)
Take Arizona as a nice road dog for the win tonight over San Diego.
The storied career of Padres’ starter Greg Maddux doesn’t apply here, as he’s been awful against Arizona.
The right-hander is just 1-10 with a 5.28 ERA in 16 career starts against the Diamondbacks, and he’s 0-8 with a 6.58 ERA in his last 12. I’m not sure why Maddux has such difficulty with them, but the Diamondbacks are that much more attractive as an underdog against him.
Arizona will counter with Micah Owings and he pitched well against the Padres in his only career appearance against them on August 1. In that game, the right-hander didn’t receive a decision, but he pitched six innings and gave up only one run and four hits in Arizona’s 9-5, 11-inning win.
Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win.
15 Dime
REDS (With Harang as listed pitcher)
Take the Reds tonight at a near even price for the road win over the Pirates.
Aaron Harang will start for the Reds and I don’t see the Pirates getting through to him at all. The right-hander is 13-3 on the season, including 3-0 in his last four starts. He’s 2-0 with a 4.98 ERA in three starts against the Pirates this season, and 10-3 with a 4.32 ERA in 16 career starts.
Those are numbers that the Pirates just can’t stack up against.
Ian Snell will start for Pittsburgh and he is still trying to get on track after a disastrous start to the second half of the season. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts against the Reds this year, and 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA in six lifetime starts against them. Snell has lost two straight against the Reds.
Cincinnati was swept in their doubleheader against the Bucs last night, but Pittsburgh threw two left-handers against the Reds which neutralized the Reds’ best hitters, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.
Take the Reds as they grab the road win tonight behind Harang.
5 Dime
MARINERS (With Weaver and Hernandez as listed pitchers)
Take the Mariners this afternoon as the small home chalk for the win over the Angels.
The success of the Angels against the Mariners this year really works to our advantage, as this pitching matchup greatly favors Seattle.
Trust me; this number would be a lot higher if Seattle had a bit more success against Los Angeles this year.
Felix Hernandez has won his last four decisions and is 4-0 in his last six starts. He is the unquestioned ace of the staff and I expect him to stop the M’s slide today with a strong outing.
The Angels will start Jered Weaver and he has been tagged by the Mariners this year. The right-hander has allowed 11 runs and 21 hits in just 10 2-3 innings this year against Seattle. He has a 9.41 ERA in his last three starts against Seattle. Weaver is also 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts.
Take the Mariners as they avoid the sweep at the hands of the Angels with the home win.
DIAMONDBACKS (With Owings and Maddux as listed pitchers)
Take Arizona as a nice road dog for the win tonight over San Diego.
The storied career of Padres’ starter Greg Maddux doesn’t apply here, as he’s been awful against Arizona.
The right-hander is just 1-10 with a 5.28 ERA in 16 career starts against the Diamondbacks, and he’s 0-8 with a 6.58 ERA in his last 12. I’m not sure why Maddux has such difficulty with them, but the Diamondbacks are that much more attractive as an underdog against him.
Arizona will counter with Micah Owings and he pitched well against the Padres in his only career appearance against them on August 1. In that game, the right-hander didn’t receive a decision, but he pitched six innings and gave up only one run and four hits in Arizona’s 9-5, 11-inning win.
Take the Diamondbacks as the road dog for the win.
Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
SEA (-125) vs 919 ANA
Analysis: I've lost with the Mariners the last two nights but I can't let that "get me off them," here! The Mariners are an excellent home team (41-26) and despite losses on Monday and Tuesday at Safeco Field, have still won more money at home (plus-$1,370) than any team in baseball. They will not be facing John Lackey in this one, who has thrown 24 scoreless innings at them in '07, but rather Jered Weaver. Weaver is not quite the pitcher he was last year (11-2, 2.56 ERA / Angels were 14-5), going 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 starts (team is 12-10!). His road ERA (4.48) is exactly one run higher than his home ERA (3.48) and he's 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts (team is 0-4!). Weaver owns two dismal outings earlier this season against the Mariners (11 ERs and 21 hits in 10.2 innings) and while he was outstanding in his first two career starts against Seattle last season, he has a 9.41 ERA in the past three! The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez. Hernandez opened the '07 season 2-0, not allowing a run in 17 innings. He then spent a month on the DL and it took some time for him to re-find his "groove." He's found it though, as the team has won EIGHT of his 10 post-July 4 starts, including the last SIX, where Hernandez is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Mariners are 10-3 in his home starts this year and this "is the spot' to make a HUGE play on the Mariners! Getaway Day Game of the Month 20* Sea Mariners
: )
SEA (-125) vs 919 ANA
Analysis: I've lost with the Mariners the last two nights but I can't let that "get me off them," here! The Mariners are an excellent home team (41-26) and despite losses on Monday and Tuesday at Safeco Field, have still won more money at home (plus-$1,370) than any team in baseball. They will not be facing John Lackey in this one, who has thrown 24 scoreless innings at them in '07, but rather Jered Weaver. Weaver is not quite the pitcher he was last year (11-2, 2.56 ERA / Angels were 14-5), going 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 starts (team is 12-10!). His road ERA (4.48) is exactly one run higher than his home ERA (3.48) and he's 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts (team is 0-4!). Weaver owns two dismal outings earlier this season against the Mariners (11 ERs and 21 hits in 10.2 innings) and while he was outstanding in his first two career starts against Seattle last season, he has a 9.41 ERA in the past three! The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez. Hernandez opened the '07 season 2-0, not allowing a run in 17 innings. He then spent a month on the DL and it took some time for him to re-find his "groove." He's found it though, as the team has won EIGHT of his 10 post-July 4 starts, including the last SIX, where Hernandez is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Mariners are 10-3 in his home starts this year and this "is the spot' to make a HUGE play on the Mariners! Getaway Day Game of the Month 20* Sea Mariners
: )
Ben Burns
UNDER reds/pirates
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Time: 8/29/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Reds and Pirates to finish UNDER the total. The second game of yesterday's double-header finished with a 3-2 final and I'm expecting more of the same this evening. Both starters are capable of pitching very well and both come off "quality" starts in which they allowed only three runs through seven complete innings. The Pirates have seen the UNDER go 6-3 their last nine games. The UNDER is also a highly profitable 28-14 the last 42 times that they played a road game with an over/under line of either eight or 8.5. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening with the final combined score staying beneath the number.
HOUSTON
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Game Time: 8/29/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Houston Astros Reason: I'm laying the price with HOUSTON. This should be a major pitching mismatch. Oswalt is a terrific 8-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 15 home starts while Wells is a dismal 3-8 (team is 3-9) with an ugly 6.36 ERA and 1.555 WHIP in 12 road starts. Oswalt is also 10-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.200 WHIP vs. the Cardinals. Note that in two starts against the Cards this season he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings. That's a 1.13 ERA! Conversely, Wells has allowed a whopping 12 runs in a mere 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts vs. the Cardinals. That's a 11.57 ERA! Note that Houston won those two games by a combined score of 21-3! Looking back further and we find that Wells is also a poor 4-8 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.494 WHIP over his career vs. the Cardinals. The Astros have always been strong as home favorites of this size, going 9-5 as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range this season and 32-16 (+6.5) the past three seasons. Look for Oswalt to outpitch Wells as the Astros bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss and earn their new manager his first victory. *Personal Favorite
UNDER reds/pirates
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Time: 8/29/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Reds and Pirates to finish UNDER the total. The second game of yesterday's double-header finished with a 3-2 final and I'm expecting more of the same this evening. Both starters are capable of pitching very well and both come off "quality" starts in which they allowed only three runs through seven complete innings. The Pirates have seen the UNDER go 6-3 their last nine games. The UNDER is also a highly profitable 28-14 the last 42 times that they played a road game with an over/under line of either eight or 8.5. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening with the final combined score staying beneath the number.
HOUSTON
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Game Time: 8/29/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Houston Astros Reason: I'm laying the price with HOUSTON. This should be a major pitching mismatch. Oswalt is a terrific 8-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 15 home starts while Wells is a dismal 3-8 (team is 3-9) with an ugly 6.36 ERA and 1.555 WHIP in 12 road starts. Oswalt is also 10-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.200 WHIP vs. the Cardinals. Note that in two starts against the Cards this season he has allowed only two runs in 16 innings. That's a 1.13 ERA! Conversely, Wells has allowed a whopping 12 runs in a mere 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts vs. the Cardinals. That's a 11.57 ERA! Note that Houston won those two games by a combined score of 21-3! Looking back further and we find that Wells is also a poor 4-8 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.494 WHIP over his career vs. the Cardinals. The Astros have always been strong as home favorites of this size, going 9-5 as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range this season and 32-16 (+6.5) the past three seasons. Look for Oswalt to outpitch Wells as the Astros bounce back from yesterday's shutout loss and earn their new manager his first victory. *Personal Favorite
Ness
Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
SEA (-125) vs 919 ANA
Analysis: I've lost with the Mariners the last two nights but I can't let that "get me off them," here! The Mariners are an excellent home team (41-26) and despite losses on Monday and Tuesday at Safeco Field, have still won more money at home (plus-$1,370) than any team in baseball. They will not be facing John Lackey in this one, who has thrown 24 scoreless innings at them in '07, but rather Jered Weaver. Weaver is not quite the pitcher he was last year (11-2, 2.56 ERA / Angels were 14-5), going 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 starts (team is 12-10!). His road ERA (4.48) is exactly one run higher than his home ERA (3.48) and he's 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts (team is 0-4!). Weaver owns two dismal outings earlier this season against the Mariners (11 ERs and 21 hits in 10.2 innings) and while he was outstanding in his first two career starts against Seattle last season, he has a 9.41 ERA in the past three! The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez. Hernandez opened the '07 season 2-0, not allowing a run in 17 innings. He then spent a month on the DL and it took some time for him to re-find his "groove." He's found it though, as the team has won EIGHT of his 10 post-July 4 starts, including the last SIX, where Hernandez is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Mariners are 10-3 in his home starts this year and this "is the spot' to make a HUGE play on the Mariners! Getaway Day Game of the Month 20* Sea Mariner
Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
SEA (-125) vs 919 ANA
Analysis: I've lost with the Mariners the last two nights but I can't let that "get me off them," here! The Mariners are an excellent home team (41-26) and despite losses on Monday and Tuesday at Safeco Field, have still won more money at home (plus-$1,370) than any team in baseball. They will not be facing John Lackey in this one, who has thrown 24 scoreless innings at them in '07, but rather Jered Weaver. Weaver is not quite the pitcher he was last year (11-2, 2.56 ERA / Angels were 14-5), going 9-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 starts (team is 12-10!). His road ERA (4.48) is exactly one run higher than his home ERA (3.48) and he's 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA in his last four road starts (team is 0-4!). Weaver owns two dismal outings earlier this season against the Mariners (11 ERs and 21 hits in 10.2 innings) and while he was outstanding in his first two career starts against Seattle last season, he has a 9.41 ERA in the past three! The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez. Hernandez opened the '07 season 2-0, not allowing a run in 17 innings. He then spent a month on the DL and it took some time for him to re-find his "groove." He's found it though, as the team has won EIGHT of his 10 post-July 4 starts, including the last SIX, where Hernandez is 4-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Mariners are 10-3 in his home starts this year and this "is the spot' to make a HUGE play on the Mariners! Getaway Day Game of the Month 20* Sea Mariner
Jimmy The Moose
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Aug 29 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Reason: Great pitching matchup tonight with both starters having won 14 games so far this season. The Twins are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 19 games as a road dog they are 5-14. In their last 12 games vs. team's with a winning record they are 3-9. The Indians have won 6 of their last 7 games. C.C. is 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA vs. the Twins this season. Cleveland is 10-4 in their last 14 meetings with the Twins. Minnesota is 2-6 in their last 8 visits to Cleveland. Play on the Indians
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Aug 29 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Reason: Great pitching matchup tonight with both starters having won 14 games so far this season. The Twins are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 19 games as a road dog they are 5-14. In their last 12 games vs. team's with a winning record they are 3-9. The Indians have won 6 of their last 7 games. C.C. is 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA vs. the Twins this season. Cleveland is 10-4 in their last 14 meetings with the Twins. Minnesota is 2-6 in their last 8 visits to Cleveland. Play on the Indians
Robert Ferringo
7-Unit Play. Take #914 Houston (-160) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
National League Game of the Year
The thinking here is simple: Roy Oswalt is one of the best bets in baseball and he’s facing one of our favorite pitchers to fade, Kip Wells. Houston has won 12 of Oswalts last 14 starts and he has a career 61-19 record in Minute Maid Park. This line is about 35 cents light, so we’re getting fantastic value. The reason the line is so short is because Oswalt is coming off an oblique injury that he sustained on the 18th. Houston gave him an extra day of rest and after a side session over the weekend he was deemed more than ready to return. Well, Oswalt is 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA in his career with six or more days of rest. He has a winning record in his career against the Cardinals and boasts a 3.04 ERA in 21 appearances against them. Wells, on the other hand, is just 30-50 in his career on the road (37.5 percent) and is just 4-8 with a 5.03 ERA against the Astros in his career.
Houston is looking to get interim manager Cecil Cooper his first win and give their fans some reason to cheer in what has been a dismal season. I think an inspired win behind their ace, over a division rival that embarrassed them 7-0 the night before, will do just the trick.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #927 Detroit (-110) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
1-Unit Play. Take #927 Detroit (-1.5, +140) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Last night the Tigers outhit the Royals 16-6 yet lost 6-3. Detroit lost as a favorite despite their strong performance at the plate and I look for them to redeem themselves today against Zack Greinke. There’s a reason K.C. moved Greinke to the bullpen, and I think it had to do with the fact that they were 1-6 in his starts this year and 6-16 inhis last 22 starts overall. He did perform well against the Indians last week, but he only went three innings.
Kansas City is just 32-77 at home against left-handed starters – a 71 PERCENT BET AGAINST TREND – and after picking up a win against Nate Robertson last night I don’t think they get a second victory against Andrew Miller today. Detroit is just 2-6 in the second of back-to-back games against a left-handed starter over the past two years, and 1-3 in their last four instances.
4-Unit Play. Take #907 Cincinnati (-110) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Aaron Harang has been one of our favorite pitchers to back this year and he has been one of the most profitable arms in the Majors. I think he comes through again for us as the Reds bounce back after getting swept in a doubleheader yesterday. Harang is 10-3 in his career against the Pirates and has won 61 percent of his 56 road decisions in his career.
The Reds had been playing light’s out baseball (9-3) but yesterday they ran into their Kryptonite: left-handed pitching. Today they get a crack at Ian Snell, who has lost seven of his last nine starts and has an ERA of 6.11 since July 13. Snell hit the same wall last year, surrendering four or more runs in seven of his last 11 starts last season. The Reds lit up Snell for six runs and 10 hits in five innings earlier this month, and I look for more of the same today.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 11.0 New York Mets at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Note: I do endorse a play at 10.5.
This number is way too high for an Ed Rapuano game. Rap is 8-16 against the total this season, 22-35 over the past two seasons, and he has hit on the ‘under’ in 12 of his last 17 games. He’s seen an average of just 7.92 runs in his 24 games behind the dish this year and tonight he’ll be giving those generous corners to a pair of pitchers that need it: Oliver Perez and Jamie Moyer. Moyer has a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts against the Mets and Perez gave up just one run in six innings in his only start in Philly. I think this will be another closely played, nip-tuck affair.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #917 Toronto (-145) over Oakland (3:55 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
The Blue Jays kill left-handed pitching and Roy Halladay is 47-19 in day games. Lenny DiNardo has been solid during the day, with a 2.55 ERA in 35.1 innings. But he has a 6.60 ERA over the past six games, 5.00 in the last five, and 5.40 in his last three. Roy Halladay has been dealing lately, hurling three complete games in his last seven outings. He is 5-2 in those outings with a 2.42 ERA over his last eight starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA in day games and 2.08 ERA in his last three.
7-Unit Play. Take #914 Houston (-160) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
National League Game of the Year
The thinking here is simple: Roy Oswalt is one of the best bets in baseball and he’s facing one of our favorite pitchers to fade, Kip Wells. Houston has won 12 of Oswalts last 14 starts and he has a career 61-19 record in Minute Maid Park. This line is about 35 cents light, so we’re getting fantastic value. The reason the line is so short is because Oswalt is coming off an oblique injury that he sustained on the 18th. Houston gave him an extra day of rest and after a side session over the weekend he was deemed more than ready to return. Well, Oswalt is 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA in his career with six or more days of rest. He has a winning record in his career against the Cardinals and boasts a 3.04 ERA in 21 appearances against them. Wells, on the other hand, is just 30-50 in his career on the road (37.5 percent) and is just 4-8 with a 5.03 ERA against the Astros in his career.
Houston is looking to get interim manager Cecil Cooper his first win and give their fans some reason to cheer in what has been a dismal season. I think an inspired win behind their ace, over a division rival that embarrassed them 7-0 the night before, will do just the trick.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #927 Detroit (-110) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
1-Unit Play. Take #927 Detroit (-1.5, +140) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Last night the Tigers outhit the Royals 16-6 yet lost 6-3. Detroit lost as a favorite despite their strong performance at the plate and I look for them to redeem themselves today against Zack Greinke. There’s a reason K.C. moved Greinke to the bullpen, and I think it had to do with the fact that they were 1-6 in his starts this year and 6-16 inhis last 22 starts overall. He did perform well against the Indians last week, but he only went three innings.
Kansas City is just 32-77 at home against left-handed starters – a 71 PERCENT BET AGAINST TREND – and after picking up a win against Nate Robertson last night I don’t think they get a second victory against Andrew Miller today. Detroit is just 2-6 in the second of back-to-back games against a left-handed starter over the past two years, and 1-3 in their last four instances.
4-Unit Play. Take #907 Cincinnati (-110) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Aaron Harang has been one of our favorite pitchers to back this year and he has been one of the most profitable arms in the Majors. I think he comes through again for us as the Reds bounce back after getting swept in a doubleheader yesterday. Harang is 10-3 in his career against the Pirates and has won 61 percent of his 56 road decisions in his career.
The Reds had been playing light’s out baseball (9-3) but yesterday they ran into their Kryptonite: left-handed pitching. Today they get a crack at Ian Snell, who has lost seven of his last nine starts and has an ERA of 6.11 since July 13. Snell hit the same wall last year, surrendering four or more runs in seven of his last 11 starts last season. The Reds lit up Snell for six runs and 10 hits in five innings earlier this month, and I look for more of the same today.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 11.0 New York Mets at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
Note: I do endorse a play at 10.5.
This number is way too high for an Ed Rapuano game. Rap is 8-16 against the total this season, 22-35 over the past two seasons, and he has hit on the ‘under’ in 12 of his last 17 games. He’s seen an average of just 7.92 runs in his 24 games behind the dish this year and tonight he’ll be giving those generous corners to a pair of pitchers that need it: Oliver Perez and Jamie Moyer. Moyer has a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts against the Mets and Perez gave up just one run in six innings in his only start in Philly. I think this will be another closely played, nip-tuck affair.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #917 Toronto (-145) over Oakland (3:55 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 29)
The Blue Jays kill left-handed pitching and Roy Halladay is 47-19 in day games. Lenny DiNardo has been solid during the day, with a 2.55 ERA in 35.1 innings. But he has a 6.60 ERA over the past six games, 5.00 in the last five, and 5.40 in his last three. Roy Halladay has been dealing lately, hurling three complete games in his last seven outings. He is 5-2 in those outings with a 2.42 ERA over his last eight starts. He is 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA in day games and 2.08 ERA in his last three.
