service plays 30/08/07

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GamblersData COMP PLAY: THURSDAY Texas Rangers -150 Bonus Play Record 790-449 64% DAVE COKIN NFL X GOY : Tennessee Titans -7 DAVE MALINSKY NFL X 6* San Fran 49rs/San Diego Chargers under 38 Wild Bill NCAA Week of August 30-Sept 3 Ball St -6 (1 unit) Over 45 1/2 Kent-Iowa St. (1 unit) Utah +7 (1 unit) UL-Monroe +4 (1 unit) Under 46 Washington-Syracuse (1 unit) East Carolina +24 1/2 (1 unit) Connecticut -5 (1 unit) Oregon -14 1/2 (1 unit) Washington St +14 (2 units) Arizona +6 (3 units) Baylor +21 (1 unit) Colorado -2 1/2 (1 unit) Bowling Green +15 (2 units) Texas -39 (1 unit) Middle Tennessee +2 1/2 (1 unit) Clemson +3 1/2 (1 unit) Wild Bill Week 4, Aug 30-Sept 1 NFLX week 4 Under 36 Giants-Pats (1 unit) Giants +4 1/2 (1 unit) Eagles -2 1/2 (5 units) Jaguars -3 1/2 (2 units) Under 37 Browns-Bears (1 unit) Browns +4 (1 unit) Under 37 Dallas-Vikings (1 unit) Vikings +2 (1 unit) Over 37 Packers-Titans (1 unit) Tampa -3 (1 unit) Under 37 Houston-Tampa (1 unit) Under 37 Chiefs-Rams (1 unit) Over 36 Steelers-Carolina (1 unit) Steelers +5 (4 units) New Orleans +1 1/2 (2 units) Over 39 1/2 Arizona-Denver (2 units) Under 34 Ravens-Falcons (1 unit) Indy +5 1/2 (2 units) Under 40 1/2 Indy-Bengals (1 unit) John Ryan Kent vs. Iowa State (NCAAF) Aug 30, 2007 8:00 PM EDT Play: Kent Play Title: Kent State wins in an upset Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Kent State - AiS shows a 73% probability that Kent State will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and a 50% probability that they will win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 111-61 ATS since 1992. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season. Should the line move below 3 for this game, which I don not believe will occur, it never the less does not diminish the grading of this play by my AiS. The grading is the final result of the AiS. The slight differences in the probabilities of ATS and SU wins are only shown as just 1 example of the many modules involved in the neural net. Differing probabilities do not make one play stronger than another. Remember always that the reason we are making this play is due to the AiS grading. The supplemental info, angles, and systems serve only to reinforce the grading. The Kent State Golden Flashes had the 116th ranked punting team in the country last season and that has been addressed in Spring and Summer camps. The punting game will be far better and that takes a whole lot of pressure off this defense. The fact that KS also returns 8 defensive starters will be a huge advantage against a IS team that returns only 4 starters on offense. Based on the AiS projections I also like the following teaser play. I highly recommend not exceeding a 1* amount on this additional play. Take the UNDER and Kent State in a teaser. AiS shows an 80% probability that KS defense will not allow 150 or more passing yards in this game and an 82% probability that IS will do the same. Note that IS is 12-3 UNDER and KS 8-1 UNDER in this role since 1992. Good Luck as always! Cappers Access (Thur) CFB Miss St (Thur) CFB UL-Monroe (Thur) NFL Browns today looking for : Burns' CFB Underdog Game of the Month *22-7-1 L30! Lenny Del Genio's 20* CFB Game of the Month If anyone get it, than please post it !
 

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Michael Cannon Money Train
Thursday's Plays:

30 Dime –

UTAH (Buy the ½ point if your line is +6 ½)
Take the points with Utah tonight over Oregon State.
The Utes return star quarterback Brian Johnson, who should spark their offensive attack. Johnson is a mobile quarterback who amassed 3600 yards of total offense in 2005 and will benefit from the return of his top six wide receivers.
Oregon State relies on pressuring the quarterback, but their impressive performances were against mostly drop-back passers of the Pac-10. Johnson ran for 690 yards in 2005, so his mobility will neutralize some of that pressure.
I’m also not willing to side with an Oregon State team that will roll with a two-QB system. Coach Mike Riley hasn’t decided between Sean Canfield or Lyle Moevao, so he’ll likely use this game and the next few before he settles on a clear No. 1.
Oregon State won 10 games last year, but their offense actually regressed by 57 ypg, and those numbers don’t figure to improve with a two-headed quarterback.
Another strike against Oregon State is the status of star WR/KR Sammie Stroughter, who took a leave of absence. If he doesn’t go tonight, that’s one big weapon Canfield and Moevao won’t have at their disposal.
Utah is a sterling 21-4-1 ATS as a road dog, and 16-5-1 ATS as a dog versus the Pac-10. The Utes are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 lined games.
Take the points with Utah and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is +6 ½.

10 Dime –

KENT STATE
Take the points with Kent State tonight over Iowa State.
Iowa State begins the Gene Chizik era, who took over for the well-liked Dan McCarney. Chizik will have his hands full, as the Cyclones will field a mostly inexperienced team. They return seven starters from a defensive unit that allowed 393 ypg.
The Golden Flash return eight starters from a defense that allowed just 298 ypg. They also went on the road last year and beat Miami (OH) and Bowling Green. Kent State has enjoyed success against non-MAC foes, going 4-1 ATS, including 3-0 as a dog of less than 14 points.
The key angle in this game goes against Iowa State, as new coaches taking over a team who won four or fewer games the previous year going against teams who won six or more games the prior season are 4-42 SU in season openers.
I like Kent’s defense in this matchup and I love the angle against Chizik.
Take the points with Kent State and don’t be surprised if they pull off the outright win.

5 Dime –

REDS (With Belisle and Morris as listed pitchers)
Take the Reds as the road dog tonight over the Pirates.
Matt Belisle will start for Cincinnati and he has owned the Pirates this year. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three outings against the Bucs this year, holding them to a .234 batting average while walking only two and striking out 13 in 21 innings. He’s 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 16 career games against the Pirates, his most wins against any opponent.
The Bucs will counter with Matt Morris, who is 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA in his last three starts against the Reds.
Take the Reds as the road dog as they grab the win over the Pirates.
 

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Larry Ness' Daytime Delight (222-121 Y-T-D in MLB!)
My Daytime Delight is on the NY Mets at 1:05 ET. Philadelphia's 10-game homestand got off to a rough start but now the Phillies have a chance to end it by finishing off a four-game sweep of the NL East-leading New York Mets. The Phillies (70-62) opened the homestand with a win over the Dodgers before losing their next four games. However, Philadelphia rebounded with a win in the finale of its three-game set with San Diego and the three wins over the Mets (73-59) have moved the Phillies within three games of the division lead. However, New York will turn to its hottest pitcher as it looks to avoid the sweep. Orlando Hernandez (9-4, 3.07 ERA) is 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA since the break, with the Mets winning ALL nine of his starts! Philadelphia counters with Kyle Lohse (7-12, 4.47), who was acquired in a July 30 trade with Cincinnati. Lohse had a rough run earlier this year while with the Reds, in which Cincy lost 10 of his 12 starts at one point. He is though, coming off his best start with the Phillies. He gave up one run in 6.2 innings on Saturday but was denied a decision in Philadelphia's 4-3 loss to San Diego. Lohse is 1-0 with a 3.95 ERA in five starts for Philadelphia (team is 3-2) and has gone at least 6.1 innings in each of the last four. The Phillies are the hot team but I'm sticking with El Duque to come through in the clutch. Daytime Delight on the NY Mets.

Good Luck...Larry
 

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Brandon Lang

25 DIME



LSU Tigers



10 DIME



Indians - Specify Pitchers - Ramirez vs Laffey

UL Monroe

Kent St





5 DIME



Yankees - Specify Pitchers - Schilling vs Wang

Miami/Ohio

Utah St





Free Pick - Utah Utes - (For analysis see Daily video)
 

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North Coast Sports

4* - michigan state
3* - stanford
3* - oregon
2* - kent state (thursday)
2* - bowling green
2* - ulm (thursday)
 

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Mike Rose

Buffalo U +32.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 7:00p

In case you were asleep during the 2006 college football season, I have news for you. Rutgers won a bowl game for the first time in its 137-year history, and almost pulled off the unthinkable by earning a bid to play in a BCS game. It was a marvelous season for HC Greg Schiano and his kids, and 2007 looks to be bright as well. That being said, the “value” in this team is 110% gone, and you will be asked to eat a ton of chalk whenever they match-up against a much lesser foe. That’s exactly the case tonight, and after backing them hard in the Texas Bowl I have no choice but to fade them in their first game of ’07.

It’s not because I think they’re a lesser team from a year ago. However, some key cogs from 2006’s squad have departed, and I expect it to take a couple games for both sides of the ball to mesh with the new faces. This is an awful lot of chalk to have to eat in their inaugural game of the season, and I don’t foresee Schiano stomping the pedal to the metal for all four quarters. A bulk of his second and third stringers will see action in the second half leaving the backdoor wide open for Buffalo to sneak in. This line is almost 13-points higher than any spread we’ve seen the Scarlet Knights have to tackle the last couple seasons, and that has everything to do with what I stated at the beginning of this breakdown.

The Bulls are by no means a pretty team; in fact they’re downright putrid. However, they covered a couple lofty spreads at Wisconsin and Auburn a season ago. Head Coach Turner Gill saw his offense increase its offensive production by 8 PPG in his first season holding the reigns, and I expect that number to increase with nine starters back on that side of the ball. Rutgers has a big game on deck vs. Navy next Friday, so look for them to get out to a big lead and then coast the rest of the way as the coaching staff evaluates their back-up talent. I know it’s really tough to do, but purchase a Buffalo ticket and check the scores at around 10:30 ET. You’ll be pleasantly surprised….


Louisiana Monroe +3.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 7:00p

This certainly isn’t a match-up that will get one’s blood boiling, but it presents value nonetheless, and we’ll be supporting Head Coach Charlie Weatherbie and the home team. I have the ULM Warhawks pegged to make some noise in the Sunbelt in ’07, and a win here will certainly get the program off on the right foot. It’s been 13 years since the Warhawks have had a winning football team, and that’s the #1 priority of this squad in ’07.

The end of 2006 gave us a glimpse of what the future might hold as ULM rattled off five straight covers to close out the year. They even gave SEC representative Kentucky all they could handle in their own backyard in a 42-40 defeat as 20-point road underdogs. The offense returns 17 starters from a year ago, and the groundwork has been laid the prior four seasons under Weatherbie and his staff. He proved to be a winner back in his days at Navy and Utah State (both went bowling under his tutelage), and I really feel its only a matter of time before he gets this program to its first ever bowl appearance.

Tulsa experienced great success under former Head Coach Steve Kragthorpe as they made Bowl appearances in three of the past four years. However, Kragthorpe has moved on to greener pastures, and new Head Coach Todd Graham takes over the reigns after putting forth a masterful effort at Rice a season ago. He and his staff will be implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and the 10 starters back (O:4 D:6) leads me to believe it will take some time for this group to catch on. Tulsa has dropped 12 straight road openers, and unfortunately for them and their fans, I foresee that number increasing to 13 after tonight.

Grab the points with the home team as they’ll be a very improved team (record wise) in ’07, and they have a better understanding of what their coach wants them to do.


Mississippi State +18.5 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 8:00p

The annual SEC woodshed beating has been moved up in the schedule as the LSU Tigers invade Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to kick-off each teams respective seasons. This series has been completely one sided and ugly for quite some time now. To say LSU's owned the Bulldogs would be putting it very kindheartedly. The average score between these two clubs has been 42-7 in favor of the Tigers the last six seasons, and the lone cover came last year when the Bulldogs lost by 31 as 33-point road pups. The Tigers bolted out to a big lead, and then allowed their second and third stringers to duke it out after a prolonged weather delay ultimately allowing the Bulldogs to get within the spread.

The Tigers have gotten respect from the betting public since this line opened, as the number has climbed a full two points and doesn’t seem to be stopping. This is an awful lot of points to lay in a hostile venue, and I’m not so sure LSU is capable of covering this lumber, regardless of them being the much talented squad. This is the fourth season of the Sylvester Croom regime in Starkville, and this club must show improvement over the next three months or else heads are going to roll. The Bulldogs looked to have turned the corner in the second half of ’06 with solid efforts vs. Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They return 14 starters from last year’s team and the main objective for this club in ’07 is to contend for an SEC Title. That might be a bit far fetched, but the talent on hand certainly leads me to believe that they’re capable of at least reaching a Bowl game for the first time in seven years.

With VTECH on deck in Baton Rouge next week, the Tigers full attention might not be on the opponent at hand and that’s usually a recipe for disaster. I’m by no means calling for a SU win here by the home team, but I firmly believe they’re capable of staying within this lofty spread. It’s the first week of the season, and anything can happen. Grab the points with the Bulldogs as they put forth a respectable effort vs. an LSU club many have destined to play in the National Championship.
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL



Miami (Ohio) at Ball State



Miami (Ohio) looks to bounce back from its first losing season in 12 years when it opens the 2007 campaign by traveling to Ball State for an early-season Mid-American Conference showdown.



A perennial bowl participant and contender for the MAC Championship in recent years, Miami (Ohio) stumbled to a 2-10 finish last year, going just 4-8 against the spread (ATS). The Redhawks missed out on postseason play for the second consecutive year.



Ball State rode a surprisingly strong offense (28.1 points per game) to a 5-7 record last year, including an impressive 8-3 ATS mark in lined games. All five of the Cardinals’ wins came in MAC play, including a 20-17 upset victory at Miami (Ohio) as a 4½-point underdog.



The Redhawks, who averaged 18.7 ppg last year, return seven starters on offense, including all five offensive linemen, as well as quarterback Mike Kokal. The team’s top four rushers also return, and Miami brings back six experienced players to a defense that allowed more than 25 ppg last year.



The Cardinals led the MAC in passing offense last year and they return starting QB Nate Davis, who completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,975 yards 18 TDs and 8 INTs as a true freshman in 2006.



Ball State is on ATS runs of 17-7-1 overall, 10-4 at home and 3-0 as a chalk. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) is mired in a 4-9 ATS slump as an underdog.



ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE





(2) LSU at Mississippi State



LSU begins the process of trying to live up to some lofty preseason expectations when it travels to Starkville, Miss., to kickoff the season against SEC rival Mississippi State.



LSU went 11-2 last year (6-5-2 ATS), closing the season on a seven-game winning streak (3-2-2 ATS), including a 41-14 rout of Notre Dame as a nine-point favorite in the Sugar Bowl. The Tigers, who have reached double digits in wins three of the last four years, got it done with defense in 2006, allowing just 13 points per game, which was the second-lowest total in the nation.



Mississippi State is coming off another disappointing campaign, as it went 3-9 SU and 5-5-1 ATS. It marked the sixth straight year that the Bulldogs failed to win more than three games. Mississippi State is just 9-25 SU in coach Sylvester Croom’s three years in Starkville (14-16-1 ATS) including 4-20 SU in SEC games (12-12 ATS).



The Tigers’ offense averaged 34 ppg last year, but lost several key members of that unit, most notably QB JaMarcus Russell, as well as WRs Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, all three of whom went in the first round of the NFL draft. With Russell departed, the QB chores will fall into the hands of either strong-armed senior Matt Flynn or athletic sophomore Ryan Perrilloux.



LSU has won seven straight over the Bulldogs, the last four by at least 30 points, including last year’s 48-13 rout in a game delayed for an hour because of a lightning storm. However, the Tigers came up just shy as a 33½-point home chalk, snapping a 9-0 ATS streak against Mississippi State.



The Tigers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road contests and 8-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite since coach Les Miles took over in 2005.



ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU





Kent State at Iowa State



For the first time in 13 seasons, Iowa State takes the field under a new coach as the Cyclones host Kent State in a non-conference clash in Ames, Iowa.



Gene Chizik, former defensive coordinator at Texas, takes over for Dan McCarney, who resigned after 12 seasons with the Cyclones following last year’s disappointing 4-8 finish (3-8 ATS). Iowa State lost six of its final seven games in 2006 and finished just 1-7 SU and ATS in Big 12 play.



One positive for Chizik is he takes over a team with a veteran quarterback, as senior Bret Meyer has made 36 starts in his career. However, Meyer (56.4 percent, 2,546 yards, 12 TDs, 12 INTs last year) lost his top two running backs and top two wide receivers from an offense that put up just 18 ppg a year ago.



Kent State was the picture of mediocrity in 2006, going 6-6 SU and ATS. However, it was a huge improvement over 2005, when the Golden Flash went 1-10 (3-7 ATS).



Kent State returns eight players with experience on both sides of the ball, including QB Julian Edelman (55.4 percent, 1,859 yards, 10 TDs, 11 INTs). Edelman leads an offense that struggled mightily down the stretch last year, averaging just 8 ppg in their final five contests. For the season, the Golden Flash, like Iowa State, averaged 18 ppg.



Kent State is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three season-openers, but it did go 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in 2006.



Iowa State has won the four previous meetings against the Flashes.



The under is on runs of 12-3 for Kent State and 7-2 for Iowa State.



ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





Utah at Oregon State



Oregon State carries a four-game winning streak into its season-opener against Utah, which hopes to get a boost from the return of quarterback Brian Johnson.



Oregon State was one of the surprise teams of 2007, going 10-4 (7-6 ATS), including a huge overtime upset of USC at home, plus a thrilling 39-38 victory over Missouri in the Sun Bowl. The Beavers return 13 players with experience, but one key loss was QB Matt Moore, who helped guide an offense that scored 30 points or more in six of its last seven games, including the final four in a row.



Despite not having Johnson under center the entire year because of injury, Utah still managed to finish 8-5 (8-4 ATS) and advance to a bowl game for the fourth consecutive year. Like Oregon State, the Utes finished strong, winning four of their final five games (5-0 ATS), with the only loss being a heartbreaking, last-second 33-31 setback to archrival BYU in the regular-season finale.



Johnson, who hasn’t played since November 2005, returns to an offense that averaged 27 points per game in 2006, its lowest output in four years. The Utes return their two top-producing RBs and all of their top wideouts.



Oregon State is on a 15-6-1 ATS tear when laying points. Meanwhile, the Utes have relished the role of road underdog in recent years, cashing at a 20-4 ATS clip in their last 24 games in that situation.



The Beavers are 8-4-1 SU lifetime against Utah.



The under is on runs of 9-4 for Oregon State overall and 8-2 when Utah faces a Pac-10 opponent.



ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER





NFL PRESEASON



N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)



Six days after looking sharp in leading the Patriots to their first preseason win, quarterback Tom Brady almost certainly will be a spectator tonight when New England caps the summer by hosting the Giants.



Brady was 17-for-21 for 167 yards and two touchdowns in Friday’s 24-7 rout of the Panthers as a three-point road favorite. If history is any indication, Brady, who played 2½ quarters against Carolina, won’t sniff the field tonight as coach Bill Belichick normally rests all of his starters in the preseason finale.



With Brady out, backup Matt Cassel will see the majority of the time under center. Cassel figures to eventually give way to Matt Gutierrez, with veteran Vinnie Testaverde playing only in an emergency.



The Giants allowed 14 unanswered second-half points in Saturday’s 20-12 loss to the Jets as a three-point underdog at Giants Stadium. New York QB Eli Manning (17 of 25, 146 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) looked sharp in the defeat. However, Manning will play very little, if at all, tonight, and the same goes for the rest of the Giants’ starters.



Backup QB Jared Lorenzen, who didn’t play last week, probably will see the majority of the duty. Tim Hasselbeck and/or Anthony Wright would take over for Lorenzen.



The Patriots, who will be looking to go 2-2 for the third straight summer, are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three preseason finales. Meanwhile, despite last week’s result, the Giants are still on an 8-3 SU and ATS exhibition run.



ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS





San Francisco (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at San Diego (2-1, 1-2 ATS)



The Chargers attempt to close the preseason on a three-game winning streak when they host the 49ers in the preseason finale for both squads at Qualcomm Stadium.



San Diego rallied for a 33-31 victory at Arizona last week, but came up short as a three-point road chalk. Meanwhile, the 49ers trailed the Bears 31-13 at Chicago on Saturday before making a game of it late, eventually falling 31-28 but covering as a five-point road underdog.



Don’t expect to see much of Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ starters, who will be on the field for no more than 10 plays tonight. Once Rivers departs, backup QBs Billy Volek (66 percent, 327 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs in the preseason) will finish out the first quarter, with second-year pro Charlie Whitehurst (52 percent, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) leading the offense for the final three quarters.



As usual, San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson will be in street clothes tonight. So, too, will his backup, Michael Turner, who suffered an ankle sprain last week at Arizona. That leaves the backfield chores to Darren Sproles and Andrew Pinnock.



San Francisco coach Mike Nolan acknowledged that he will allow QB Alex Smith (64 percent, 211 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and the rest of the starters to play in this one. He said they will be on the field for 12 snaps or one quarter, whichever comes first. Once Smith departs, Trent Dilfer (69.7 percent, 228 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) will take over, though it’s likely that No. 3 QB Shaun Hill (57.7 percent, 174 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) will see most of the action.



Like Tomlinson, Niners RB Frank Gore will not suit up in the preseason, only Gore’s reasoning is injury-related (broken hand).



The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run in the preseason. However, they’ve lost seven consecutive preseason road games (3-4 ATS).



San Diego is 4-1 in its last five preseason home games (3-2 ATS), with the loss coming in Week 1 earlier this month.



These West Coast rivals meet annually in the summer, with the Chargers going 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in the last four. San Francisco’s lone win came in Week 4 last year, a 23-14 victory as a four-point home chalk.



San Diego has easily topped the total in all three of its preseason games, while San Francisco has done so in its last two. Also, the over is 4-0 in the last four Chargers-Niners clashes, including three preseason games.



ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER





NATIONAL LEAGUE



Arizona (74-60) at San Diego (73-59)



The Padres look to complete a four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks and reclaim sole possession of first place in the N.L. West when they send Chris Young (9-4, 2.12 ERA) to the mound against Doug Davis (11-11, 4.09).



San Diego has posted three consecutive two-run victories over Arizona, including Wednesday’s 3-1 triumph at Petco Park, a result that means the two teams are essentially deadlocked atop the division standings. The Padres are now on runs of 7-1 overall, 10-3 at home and 9-1 against N.L. West foes.



The Diamondbacks have now lost seven of their last 10, but they’re still 11-6 in their last 17 road contests. Also, the Padres have won five of the last six series meetings, but Arizona still leads the season series 7-6.



Young surrendered four runs on five hits in five innings in his most recent start on Aug. 21 at the Mets, failing to register a decision in San Diego’s 7-6 loss. Young missed his last turn in the rotation because of a bad back, and he’s 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts since returning from a stint on the disabled list.



Young has been absolutely incredible at Petco Park this year, going 4-1 with a 0.66 ERA in 10 starts, allowing just nine runs (five earned) in 68 innings. However, the Padres are just 6-4 in those 10 games, averaging a pathetic 1.7 runs per game.



The righthander has faced Arizona four times over the past two seasons, going 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA. San Diego is 0-2 in Young’s two starts against the DBacks this year, but both of those came in Arizona.



Davis is coming off Saturday’s gem against the Cubs, allowing just a run on six hits in seven innings en route to a 3-1 victory. Arizona is 8-1 in Davis’ last nine starts, including 3-0 on the road. However, for the season, Davis is 4-8 despite a respectable 3.50 ERA in 13 road starts.



Davis is 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) against San Diego, including an 8-3 home win on July 13 when the southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in six innings.



The under is a perfect 10-0 in Young’s 10 home starts this year. The under is also 10-3 in Davis’ 13 road outings and 9-3-1 in Arizona’s last 13 overall, including 2-1 in this week’s series.



ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
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WUNDERDOG COMP MLB PLAY

The dog is on a 6-1 run last two days - all dogs.

Game: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas City +141

The Tigers were sailing along with a 57-36 record and appeared poised to duplicate what they did last season. Then the wheels fell off. Over the last quarter of the season the Tigers have been one of the worst teams in baseball, posting a 14-26 record (.350)! For the answer, just look at their hurlers. The pitching has been the worst in baseball over this stretch, and yes, that includes worse than Tampa Bay! The Tigers staff has allowed 249 runs in their last 40 games good for 6.2 runs per game (RPG) for the opponent. Jeremy Bonderman has been struggling to say the least. Bonderman was 10-1 on July 13, but hasn't sniffed a win since and it is easy to see why. He has worked 47.2 innings, allowed 65 hits and 43 runs, on way to an ERA of 8.12 and a 0-6 mark. The Royals have been under the radar all season. They are assumed to be the doormat in the AL Central, but a look at their last half of a season. Covering 70 games, they are 37-33! They are also 21-14 (.600) in their last 35 at home. Leo Nunez has bolstered the staff with his call-up after the break. He has pitched the Royals to four wins in his five starts, and with an ERA of three, has been providing quality starts. Everyone remembers the Royals going to Detroit for the final series of the season and sweeping the Tigers. They have now won four of the last five played this year, and no reason to think things change today. We'll ride KC again tonight.
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Tony Mathew's Free MLB Selection for August 30, 2007.

Matchup: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers

Selection: Texas Rangers (-145)

Explanation: We will side with the Texas Rangers as they face-off against the Chicago White Sox in Thursday's MLB contest.

The Chicago White Sox will use starting pitcher John Danks. John Danks has had a poor overall season (5.51 ERA), as well as has been having huge pitching problems as of late (10.66 ERA in his last 3 starts). With that said, we see the Texas Rangers scoring many easy runs tonight.

The Texas Rangers will use starting pitcher Kevin Millwood. Kevin Millwood has been up/down this season, however, as of late has been pitcher great. In fact, Kevin Millwood has a 2.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Kevin Millwood having another solid start tonight.

The Chicago White Sox are 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog, and we see them getting beat once again tonight.

Take the Texas Rangers!
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are u ready!?!?



BEN BURNS THURSDAY BASEBALL

RANGERS

Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS. These pitchers are going in opposite directions. Millwood hasn't gotten much run support. However, he's managed a stellar 2.38 ERA and 1.191 WHIP over his last three starts. Millwood has averaged greater than 7 1/2 innings in those three starts. On the other hand, Danks has an awful 10.66 ERA and 2.054 WHIP in his last three starts. Not surprisingly, the White Sox were 0-3 in those games. They lost those games by a combined score of 23-5, most recently suffering a 10-1 beating. Danks has averaged less than five innings in those starts. That's noteworthy as White Sox relievers have an awful 5.45 ERA and 1.596 WHIP for the season. By comparison, the Texas bullpen has a solid 3.43 ERA for the year. The Rangers average five runs per game at home while hitting .269. The White Sox hit only .248 on the road (.244 overall) and average only 4.3 runs. Look for Millwood to finally get some run support as the Rangers step up and record the sweep, improving to 4-0 their last four games against southpaw starters. *Personal Favorite

YANKEES

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Game Time: 8/30/2007 1:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Yankees Reason: Here come the NEW YORK YANKEES! Behind a dominant effort from Clemens, the Yankees followed up Tuesday's win with another victory yesterday. The Yankees are now an excellent 31-11 in their last 42 home games. With the momentum on their side and the pitching matchup in their favor, I expect them to complete the sweep this afternoon. Wang has beaten the Bosox the last two times he faced them, allowing three runs at Boston in July and two runs through 6 1/3 innings when he faced them here at New York in May. The Yankees won those two games by scores of 9-5 and 6-2. On the other hand, Schilling got rocked for 12 hits and six runs (5 earned) the last time that he pitched here. That gives him an ugly 6.63 ERA his last three visits to New York (Sox were 1-2) and dropped his team's record to 3-5 in his eight starts here this millennium. While the Red Sox are just 5-5 in Schilling's road starts, the Yankees are 9-4 when Wang has started at home. The Yankees are averaging a whopping 6.5 runs per game here for the year, while hitting better than .300 as a team. Conversely, the Red Sox are batting .267 on the road while averaging five runs per game. The Red Sox are also a money-burning 1-5 as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range this season. Look for the race in the AL East to get even more interesting as the Yanks complete the sweep.

UNDER orioles/d-rays

Game: Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Game Time: 8/30/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Orioles and Devil Rays to finish UNDER the total. After a wild 15-8 affair on Tuesday, yesterday's game snuck below the number. I'm expecting another well-pitched game that stays below the number this evening. Guthrie was dominant in his lone start vs. Tampa Bay, allowing only one run through six complete innings. Guthrie, who has a stellar 3.15 ERA as a starter, comes off back to back quality starts, allowing a combined five runs through 14 2/3 innings. Kazmir also comes off a quality outing, as he held Oakland to three runs on only five hits through eight complete innings. His 13 K's (and 0 walks) indicate how dominant he was. In his most recent road start, Kazmir allowed a a mere four hits through six shutout innings at Boston. That game would finish with a final score of 1-0 which brought the UNDER to 3-0 in Kazmir's last three road starts and a profitable 8-3 his last 11. It also marked the third time in Kazmir's last five road starts that his team failed to score more than one run. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair.
 

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BURNS COLLEGE FOOTBALL THURSDAY

KENT STATE

Game: Kent St. vs. Iowa St. Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Kent St. Reason: I'm taking the points with KENT STATE. Yes, the Cyclones return the dangerous QB/WR combo of Bret Myer and Todd Blythe. However, with the exception of those two stars, ISU is extremely inexperienced offensively, particularly along the offensive line. The defense allowed more than 30 points per game last season and it also returns only five starters. The Golden Flashes, on the other hand, return a whopping 17 starters back from a team which was much improved last season. The Golden Flashes allowed a mere 20.1 points per game last season and the 158 passing yards which they allowed were the 12th fewest in the nation. That stout defense helped lead to a profitable 5-1 ATS record the last six times the Golden Flashes were listed as underdogs. Conversely, the Cyclones are an ugly 2-8 ATS the last 10 times they were laying points. The bottom line is that the Cyclones have a new coach and a ton of new players. Don't be surprised when they struggle against their more experienced guests. *CFB Underdog GOM
 

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Chuck Franklin:

2000♦ LSU

This is about as one-sided a series as you will ever find and I'm not bucking the trends in this one. LSU has beaten the Bulldogs seven in a row and 14 of the last 15, with the last four wins by at least 30 points. The Tigers have covered the spread in nine of the last 10. Mississippi State has lost their last five SEC openers by an average of over 30 points per game and they are 3-9 ATS the last 12 as a double-digit dog in Starkville, while LSU has covered the number in eight of the last nine when favored on the road in SEC action. This will be an absolute blowout!

1500♦ TAMPA BAY w/KAZMIR over Baltimore w/Guthrie
 

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The Wunderdog

Game: New York Jets at Philadelphia (Thursday 8/30 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Jets +2.5

Andy Reid was 10-18 in preseason games coming into this year. The Eagles have gone 1-2 thus far to drop him to 11-20 lifetime (that's 35%). Yet the Eagles are favorites here? Hmmm. But it gets better! Andy Reid said after the Pittsburgh game that his starters would not play at all against the Jets this week! He has had a history of no-show performances in the annual exhibition closer vs. the Jets. These teams have met in the finale for the past four years and the Eagles have lost all of them! The Jets have covered five of the last six in this matchup in the preseason. With Reid's history and emphasis here on getting out healthy and playing no starters, the favorite role in this one makes no sense. The Jets are another story. Mangini is now 4-3 in preseason games. His team is putting up points, a sign that they are trying harder than most teams to win in the preseason. Kellen Clements has really been pushing Chad Pennington and it is certainly a reason they have put up 20+ points in every game. We will ride the Jets here to win on the road as a dog.
 

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BURNS NFL PRESEASON THURSDAY

DENVER

Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos Game Time: 8/30/2007 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Denver Broncos Reason: I'm laying the points with DENVER. Last week's result should provide us with the home team with the motivation advantage. The Cardinals played their best game of the preseason, leaving everything on the field in a last-minute two-point loss to best team (Chargers) from the 2006 regular season. The Broncos, on the other hand, were somewhat embarrassed - losing outright to the lowly Browns, their second straight loss of the campaign. Shanahan, who has always emphasized winning the Broncos' final preseason game, will be looking to atone for that defeat and to head into the regular season on a positive note. These teams met, at Arizona, in Week 4 of the 2006 preseason. The Broncos earned a 6-point road win in that contest which brings them 6-1 ATS the last seven years when playing their final road game of the preaseason. It also brought them to a sweet 21-5 SU and 18-8 ATS against NFC West opponents. Look for more of the same tonight as the Broncos improve to 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times they were coming off back to back preseason losses.

CAROLINA

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers Game Time: 8/30/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm laying the points with CAROLINA. I feel that both the schedule and the "situation" are significantly in favor of the Panthers. For starters, the Steelers come off big win on a nationally televised Sunday Night game. That doesn't leave them much "turn-around" time for a Thursday road game. The Panthers, on the other hand, come off an embarrassing Thursday Night loss to the Patriots. That defeat was also nationally televised, which should serve as added momentum this evening. It also provides them with a few more days in between games. Additionally, the Steelers, who played in the H.O.F. game, are playing their fifth game of the preseason. Looking back to last season and we find that the two teams (Eagles and Raiders) which played in the H.O.F Game, lost their fifth game by a combined score of 50-24. We saw the same thing in 2005 when the Bears and Dolphins met at Canton and the two teams went on to lose their final (fifth) preseason game by a combined score of 36-23. The Panthers are 2-0 SU/ATS since 2005 when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for them to be the hungrier team this evening as they improve on those numbers with a convincing victory. *Main Event


PLS post for me Lenny's 20* CFB GOM
 

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LT Profits

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers u37.0 (-110)
Thu Aug 30 '07 8:00p

Houston Texans/Tampa Bay Bucs Under 37

Both the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have surprisingly scored quite a few points this preseason, but we feel that has resulted in an artificially inflated total here.

As is the norm, both teams will rest many of their regulars here in Week 4, although Houston will be taking a look at their muddled running back situation. This should mean a lot of carries for Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado and Wali Lundy, as most likely only two of these backs will make the roster as backups to Ahman Green. Lots of carries means lots of time of the clock, and the fact that the Buccaneers have good depth on defense should keep breakaway runs to a minimum.

Now as usual, most of Tampa Bay’s offensive success this preseason has been set up by the defense giving the offense short fields to play with. However, we do not expect that to be the case here with the Texans playing more of a ball controlled keep-away offense. Thus the Bucs will need sustained drives to score, and they have a tough enough time doing that with their starting unit, let alone their reserves.

The Under is now an amazing 24-7 the last 31 times that the Buccaneers have been preseason favorites, and given the way we expect this game to play out, look for that trend to continue.

NFLX Pick: Texans/Buccaneers Under 37
 
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LARRY COOK

Take Tampa Bay Devil Rays
3* on Tampa Bay -101 (Listing Kazmir) The Baltimore Orioles have lost 8 straight games, yet they are the favorite here against Tampa Bay’s Ace in Scott Kazmir? This line is mind boggling and we will gladly cash in with the Devil Rays tonight. Kazmir has a 3.64 ERA on the year. Kazmir has given up 1 run or less in 6 of his last 9 starts. He has given up 3 runs or less in 8 of these last 9 starts. The Devil Rays are 5-1 in Kazmir's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The Orioles are 0-5 in Guthrie's last 5 starts. The Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 home games. Bet the Devil Rays.
 

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