CalvinTy's Money Management System

As some of you who may remember a couple of times where in a post I would mention about a money management system, I have always meant to share with fellow RXers. I just kept putting it off knowing that I would need to defend & explain my system well enough for it to have some followers (or at least believers).

Let me say right away several things before I lose anybody with my eventual blabbing:

1.) Yes, this *IS* a type of martingale system. I have read/seen so many kinds of 'systems' that involve some kind of martingaling (for instance, "following a hot/cold streak MLB team" or "playing against a road-weary team" or a type of series where "something is doubled up until it's won"). What I hope to show in this thread is how I attempt to limit my impact of a pure martingale system with several features of my system that I have picked up through trial and error EXPERIENCE.

2.) This system can work for all levels of bankrolls, from a $5 bettor to a $1K bettor. I will be explaining the system based on common goals (i.e. to "try to win $100" as being equivalent to trying to win 1 unit), but formulas and numbers can be adjusted on your own based on your bankroll.

3.) I know I definitely will have to share some of my historical Excel files to show real-life actual bets info (from the distant and some recent past), but some of the info are scattered among my computers, USB external drive, and some thumbdrives, LOL. I will try to share as much as I can but if I don't share some parts of a file or whatever, it shouldn't be taken as me trying to hide something bad about this system. Trust me, I will post/share the weaknesses or whatever you want to call it-- and show how I have attempted/successfully dealt with it.

4.) Most important thing: I *still* feel that the system I have tweaked is not perfect and that I'm continuously trying to improve it (which I feel is a good sense of working my efforts on this rather than tweaking a chase-type of system, tweaking a survivor-type of system). I have a funny feeling that I will eventually contradict myself when I say something early but then later say something else, and you fellow RXers will not let me see the end of it.

5.) I originally got this system from a handicapper online years ago, but several reasons I decided not to give credit for this: I feel that I have changed the system sufficiently as well as finding out that the handicapper had essentially claimed credit for another system when it was disputed later on by the original author. To this end, if somebody here searches for old posts or something, you may find out who this system came from, but it's a moot point, IMHO.

6.) Finally, this semi-martingale system (or ANY OTHER SYSTEM) will not work if you just simply cannot consistenly win 40% of your picks, yes, that low... so that's no excuse for most of us or even following a cold handicapper would still be alright.

Alright, the system coming up in the next post! (I did this on purpose to break up the introductory post so that people can just skip to the system explanation post if they wanted to).

* CalvinTy

Let's get down to business.

The first part of the system would be very similar to what may be out there online (with my revisions showing up later on):

1. You choose a set monetary amount that you would like to win in EACH series.
2. The formula for EACH series would look like this: (2x)(x)(2x) = goal amount
   • a.) for example, to win $100 for EACH series, your numbers would look like this: 40-20-40 (dashes, not the minus signs; just using dashes for readability)
   • b.) the "40" would be considered "Outsides"
   • c.) the "20" would be considered "Inside"
   • d.) another way to look at it: O-I-O = G
3. In every non-modified series, the goal is to win 2 times to close the series. Once for the Outsides; once for the Inside. You MUST follow the bet amounts as it spits out from your scribbles, notepad, or Excel file. Otherwise, money management just flies out of the window.
4. You can play multiple series at the same time, but I recommend you figure out just how much of your bankroll is in play at any given day/week/series. I can only advise some pointers after this thread gets going. That's why I recommend a low "goal amount" so that you can play more series with more flexibility than trying to make a "goal of $1,000 per month, as an example".
5. For your 1st bet, your bet "to win" amount would be the combined amount of both Outsides (i.e for 40-20-40, it would be "a bet to win $80").
6. If it wins, you then play the Insides bet for the final $20 of the goal for Series #A, as an example designation.
7. If the Outsides bet loses, say you made a spread bet for -110 juice that lost, you lost $88. Divide the loss amount by THREE to be spread out to the O-I-O formula. In this case, for simplicity's sake, you figure you use "$90" and divide it by 3 to make it 30-30-30 to be ADDED to the O-I-O.
8. Your 2nd bet level would now be 70-50-70 (40-20-40 adding 30-30-30 loss). You now want to "win $140" (risking $154 if juice at -110) for your 2nd bet level. If that wins, you now have the new Inside number of $50 to attempt to win and close Series #A for good. If you use Excel, you can see that you lost $88 but then won $140 for an interim profit of $52, so you know from this that you only need to attempt to win $48 to meet the goal of hitting $100.
9. If the 1st bet level of the Inside bet loses, then it does follow the doubling concept in where you add the lost amount (i.e. $52.80 at -110) to the "win amount of $48". That means your 2nd bet level for Inside would be now $100.80 to be won. If you hit that one, you have completed Series #A by going 2-2 even with the -110 juice factored in! Normally, if you were betting to win $100 for EVERY BET you made, you would have been the same 2-2 W-L record but at -$20 after 4 bets!
10. My tweaks involve several things, but for one, if you find yourself losing several games in a row, I use a GUIDELINE in where I rarely go over 3.5x the "goal amount" (i.e. bets of over $80 in a particular series when the goal is for $25 each series; or bets of over $350 in a particular series when the goal is for $100 each series). When I reach a losing streak by reaching a bet that may go over 3-4x the goal amount, I usually employ the "erase loss" mode. This mode means to erase previous bet by playing "to win" the amount lost in the previous bet. For example, I lose a bet of $70 at -110, risking $77. Next bet, I employ the "erase loss" and make a bet to risk $84.70 (if at -110) to win $77.00. If this bet is won, I then return back to the bet level where I need to win $70 to move on/close that particular series. Some may feel that this is unproductive, but when you take into consideration that after experiencing a losing streak, you would need to return back to winning at least 50% of your picks to make it a success in ANY money management system anyway.
11. Another tweak involves splitting a big amount into two sub-bets (like an impending bet "to win $90" may feel too much for that situation especially if you are playing MLB or a moneyline price). Rather than trying to win a -140 bet to win $90 (risking $126), you could decide to split that bet into TWO $45 bets. It would be labeled something like A & B (whether it's an Outsides or an Inside bet). You could then risk -140 to the 1 bet of "to win $45" and then use the 2nd bet for a different game to win the other half. I find this method to work well depending on what kind of circumstances you are experiencing-- especially if you want to bet two baseball moderate favorites then this would be a good way to diversify your risk/win amounts.

I will be posting real number examples in the next post... but I'm going to make this thread now (posting #1 and #2 posts at same time).

* CalvinTy

Thanx for sharing!
Need some time to compute!

Coaster

Thanks for taking the time and thought to type this out.

I have a question.

In Step 10 you mention employing the "erase loss" mode. And in the example I see how it would work if the second wager is won, but what if the player loses that one also? Do you just give up then, and return to a small base amount? Here is the paragraph I am asking about........


10.My tweaks involve several things, but for one, if you find yourself losing several games in a row, I use a GUIDELINE in where I rarely go over 3.5x the "goal amount" (i.e. bets of over $80 in a particular series when the goal is for $25 each series; or bets of over $350 in a particular series when the goal is for $100 each series). When I reach a losing streak by reaching a bet that may go over 3-4x the goal amount, I usually employ the "erase loss" mode. This mode means to erase previous bet by playing "to win" the amount lost in the previous bet. For example, I lose a bet of $70 at -110, risking $77. Next bet, I employ the "erase loss" and make a bet to risk $84.70 (if at -110) to win $77.00. If this bet is won, I then return back to the bet level where I need to win $70 to move on/close that particular series. Some may feel that this is unproductive, but when you take into consideration that after experiencing a losing streak, you would need to return back to winning at least 50% of your picks to make it a success in ANY money management system anyway.

As an example, I found this old template I used about 2 years ago and I still use this format, which may look messy and cluttered. If so, my apologizes.

I am pasting an image showing 4 different amounts where people could make a goal of: whether it is to win $25 per series; $50; $75 or $100.

In the image, it will show all of the examples with the scenario where you lose first 2 bets before winning 3rd one, then losing 2 more bets before winning the final bet to close that particular series. In essence, you went 2-4 but winning your unit/goal anyway.






I hope the descriptions are understood alright. By the way, "hL" means a hypothetical loss and "hW" means a hypothetical win. Just an old habit. Same idea with any tweaks I make would show "phL" or "phW" as to mean "partial hypothetical win/loss".

Note that this template is based on all -110 odds, but is very flexible. Evidently, the higher juice you make & lose, the faster it'll accumulate losses into bigger numbers. In any case, the image above does not show a situation where a bet goes more than 5x your goal amount (alright, you can perceive your goal amount to be something like YOUR UNIT so that'd mean that you rarely reach the necessity of making 5 unit bets, but it will happen sometimes during a lengthy losing streak).

I'm sure I will get a lot of questions, so I'll not try to cover everything before I head to bed soon. I probably should end for the night with a real-life example that I happened to find in my old file that I don't care about sharing since it is about April 2006 when I had a large bankroll at one book that I was using only for this endeavor. Working on pasting that snapshot in the next post.

* CalvinTy

I even am bothering to include the actual description of bets I made in the April 2006 snapshot below (that way, anyone could verify it if desired). It's for a $125 series. This file will show some partial wins that are not used the same "way" that I do nowadays, but still a great example of "how to win $1,000 in a short period of time". Again, there are several things in my approach that I used in April 2006 that have changed a little bit.

Just saw your question, CookieNBabe, and I think this real example might help "give you a glimpse" of what kind of erase loss that I use these days. I was still tweaking that back then, and hadn't really came up with a consistent method so I was simply trying to win a set amount of money then. I will try to give a good example using a recent $25 series (I'm using a smaller amount these days due to much smaller bankroll after making downpayment into my condo both summers of 2006 & 2007).



I see how this snapshot is messing up the thread even if you have a big monitor/resolution. Dang. Oh well.

* CalvinTy

CookieNBabe, hope these recent examples help you to get the picture of how the "erase loss" mode works. (I sometimes use actual RX cappers' selections as my picks or other times, actual touts selections as well. So I'm chuckling that I'm posting something that has some RX poster names on it, LOL.)

A $100 series done in early 2007 where I went 0-4 at first.



Another much more recent example below (using $25 series) where I overcome a 0-4 start and still had to erase one bet again after returning back to the 3rd bet level (to win $54.00).



It all adds up in the long run when you essentially are packing your several losses into 1 series (even though people would be frustrated for not closing a series after a week or two or even a month; my longest one took 3 months but it was only because I didn't bet on it everyday, taking some days off at a time sometimes to work on other series). I know the $25 series doesn't look pretty but going 5-5 and winning $25 every time is fine with me. I do this 4 series, I'm up $100. Do this for a long time, and by 40 closed series, you are up 1 grand. And that's with betting $5-$85 per game!

Good night everyone,

* CalvinTy

First off, thanks for sharing calvin.

about the system, after reading this, although confusing as hell in the beginning....has me very curious.

I imagine after a loss of 5 (with the erase bets into play after 3 losses), would you give up? let me attempt a calculation:

-$88 (first level o/s)
-$154 (2nd level o/s)
-$268 (3rd level o/s)
-$295 (first "erase" level)
-$325 (second level "erase")

so 0-5 for -$1130 and quit?

I don't know statistics well but sounds interesting...

the downfall are the long streaks....

0-5 is -$1130 (assuming erase mode after 3 opening losses)
5-0 is +$280 (+80, +20, +80, +20, +80)

but the upside is the in-betweens (more common)
2-2 (Loss, Win, Loss, Win) = +$100
2-1 (loss, win, win or win, loss, win) = +$100
2-3 (loss, loss, loss, win, win) = +$200
etc.


i think my babble was harder to read than your system....lol

I guess as long as the system can run 12 or so cycles before a 5 game losing streak consistently then we are good? i'm sure the system is more complicated than this but am I kind of on track?

Shdw01,

You are definitely on the right track, especially with pointing this part out:

shdw01 said:

but the upside is the in-betweens (more common)
2-2 (Loss, Win, Loss, Win) = +$100
2-1 (loss, win, win or win, loss, win) = +$100
2-3 (loss, loss, loss, win, win) = +$100
etc.

Click to expand...

As for erase bets and number of series being played, they go stride by stride together-- allow me to explain-- I usually have several SMALL series being played out, i.e. right now playing with $25 series.

So I actually do not "quit or give up" on a series due to a losing streak and erase bets not succeeding. I have gone 0-9 once in a $100 series (obviously down more than $1K; in fact that series did reach past $2K in losses) but eventually it got closed after 2 months or so (of course, I do "hold" some pending bets as I close other series first to "cover the ongoing losses" then when I get back to a particular series, I then make bets again and go on a well-deserved winning streak to eventually close that series!

Before I explain how I can manage to play a terrible losing streak or making best of a great winning streak, I think I need to illustrate some more things.

For a $100 series, as an example, obviously many people would look at that as "1 unit" so to use your example:

shdw01 said:

-$88 (first level o/s)
-$154 (2nd level o/s)
-$268 (3rd level o/s)
-$295 (first "erase" level)
-$325 (second level "erase")

Click to expand...

It would be equivalent as risking unit-wise:

(1st bet level) 0.88u to win 0.80u
(2nd bet level) 1.54u to win 1.40u
(3rd bet level) 2.68u to win 2.44u
(1st erase level) 2.95u to win 2.68u
(2nd erase level) 3.25u to win 2.95u

I take that into consideration when I make the actual bets by putting my best confidence plays in the 2u-4u range, while other normal plays between 0.5u to 2u range. That's why I really really advocate playing SEVERAL *small* series concurrently! Reason for that:

There would be series where I would be at (not all at the same time, ha!):

1I,1O (first Inside attempt after 1 Outsides win)
2I,2O (2nd Inside attempt after winning 2nd Outsides attempt)
2O (2nd Outsides attempt)
3O (3rd Outsides attempt)
3Ox (1st erase attempt on 3rd bet level in Outsides)
3I,2O (3rd Inside attempt ater winning 2nd Outsides attempt)
3Ix2,2O (2nd erase attempt in 3rd Inside bet level)
and so forth...

At end of each day or beginning of next day, I figure out where my status of each series I'm at:

For example, using a random day in July last month, this was my list of series to deal with on July 29th with all at just $25 per series for all of them (10-5-10 format).

(series nbr) (status) (to win)
BC36I 2I,2O $27.30

JB67I 1I,1O $5.00
JB68O 2O $38.00
JB69O 1O $20.00

VA47I 1I,1O $5.00
VA48I 1I,1O $5.00
VA49O 1O $20.00

I then apply the list of plays I have collected & put my stronger plays at the series that are deep (in this case, only the 2O was the deepest for that day).

So when I have a winning streak, I don't simply go 20, 5, 20, 5, 20, 5 for a 6-pick winning streak but only showing 3 units for it rather than 6 units. I would have actually have some of the picks in the 2u-4u range anyway.

In short, I do *still* practice some kind of 1-5 unit confidence level in the placed bets. Best of both worlds, I guess.

Better stop for now.

* CalvinTy

you are running in circles. the key to winning is picking enough winners. not trying to refine a losing system ( martingale) which has been around for centuries and thousands of people have decided if they tweak it a bit they can get it to work.

Mr. Smith said:

you are running in circles. the key to winning is picking enough winners. not trying to refine a losing system ( martingale) which has been around for centuries and thousands of people have decided if they tweak it a bit they can get it to work.

Click to expand...

I agree.

Mr. Smith said:

you are running in circles. the key to winning is picking enough winners. not trying to refine a losing system ( martingale) which has been around for centuries and thousands of people have decided if they tweak it a bit they can get it to work.

Click to expand...

I respect that point of view. I know that there are people who just feel that it's much better to try to pick 54%+ winners than to deal with a martingale system. I cannot change people's opinion on that. I just go by my LONG-term results.

If I had the chance to add up my won-loss record, I would not be surprised that I probably have a 500-500-10 W-L-P record the last 1.5 years or so, but I would say that I'm up at least $15K, if not $20K in this time frame. We all know that having an even W-L record over the long term is a losing cause.

Iceman is a great example who simply tries to study line movement without handicapping games, and he has hit 54% over a 1-year period betting thousands of games. I basically am offering a different scheme in where you can collect/handicap/study picks and apply them into a money management system for any sport. Iceman is winning money because while he flat-bets, he is hitting the key 54%+ or better to be up considerably.

* CalvinTy

I'd like to see what Ganchrow thinks of it.

Doug said:

I'd like to see what Ganchrow thinks of it.

Click to expand...

I always wondered how Ganchrow would think of this myself. Then I realized that I simply don't have a mathematical presentation to present, and that with other tweaks I make on a regular basis, it becomes a near-impossibility to calculate how this system would fare mathematically.

Rather, I knew I would have to start new LIVE series for RX.com to follow/track along. I likely can start this tomorrow. I hope that this will show all the aspects of the system including the weaknesses & the strengths so that a person can decide if it's what they are looking for.

In short, since so many of us say they lack a money management strategy, why not try something that has worked well for me? That's why I finally gave up and wanted to share this system anyway (knowing it has potential holes in it).

P.S. I'm stepping out for a few hours. Later!

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

So tell me, Calvin, why not just use your system at baccarat? If you bet bank you'll win 50.68% of the hands you don't push and will only be laying odds of roughly -105.3. That's certainly superior to your 50% win rate at -110.

I also found this system here about a year and a half ago. Its a very good money management system as long as you dont start too big. Its actually alot easier than it sounds and after doing it a couple times it becomes second nature. With the original system you only have to win 2 out of 7 to win your set series unit. As soon as you win 2 bets the series is over and you start a new one. It can be a quick as 2 bets or 7. Hit 27% or better and you profit. The problem is making you set series unit too high. If you loose your first 4 bets , the next bet can be a huge amount. I'm actually using this system while I tailing Winning Wand. Shit I cant hit at a high % but he sure as hell can.

Good luck Calvin Ty.

I've actually added a few tweeks of my own( but if you start with a small series price no tweeks are needed...but you cant loose 6 in a row!!)

ganchrow said:

So tell me, Calvin, why not just use your system at baccarat? If you bet bank you'll win 50.68% of the hands you don't push and will only be laying odds of roughly -105.3. That's certainly superior to your 50% win rate at -110.

Click to expand...

Sorry, I don't know baccarat (nor craps for that matter). The only table game I feel comfortable with is blackjack with perfect basic strategy. Even in this game, I recall that we lose 49% of time, push 9% of time, and win 42% of the time? I don't know how effectively this type of system would work in BJ, but with patience and within the table limits, I don't see why not if the table limits are starting at $5 through $500? Patience is what is paramount here, I think.

I was throwing a 50% win rate only to illustrate that it can be done with this rate rather than requiring oneself to flat-bet at -110 juice & making sure you beat the 52.381% win percentage just to eke out a profit.

* CalvinTy

Paid2play said:

I also found this system here about a year and a half ago. Its a very good money management system as long as you dont start too big. Its actually alot easier than it sounds and after doing it a couple times it becomes second nature.

Click to expand...

Well said, Paid2play. That was one of the first thing I realized and learned. Always set your series goal amount LOWER than you think. It's so much better to play several smaller series at once. I'd rather to win 10 series of $25 each, than to try to test my smaller bankroll by trying to win 3 series of $100 each.

Paid2play said:

With the original system you only have to win 2 out of 7 to win your set series unit. As soon as you win 2 bets the series is over and you start a new one. It can be a quick as 2 bets or 7. Hit 27% or better and you profit.

Click to expand...

Yep, I know what you are talking about. I remember laughing at the 27% win rate to win out a series, but when I saw the examples of that system, I saw potential in it, yep. I only told myself just like some are asking now, "what about a lengthy losing streak... 6,7,8,9?" That's how I tried to tweak it a little bit to go ahead and address those long losing streaks that WILL eventually happen.

Paid2play said:

The problem is making you set series unit too high. If you loose your first 4 bets , the next bet can be a huge amount. I'm actually using this system while I tailing Winning Wand. Shit I cant hit at a high % but he sure as hell can.

Good luck Calvin Ty.

I've actually added a few tweeks of my own( but if you start with a small series price no tweeks are needed...but you cant loose 6 in a row!!)

Click to expand...

You mention about how it's important to set your series goal amount small--- that's the answer. That's why I don't care if I lose $22, $39, $70 during my first 3 bet levels of a $25 series or whatever if it means that I eventually will close this $25 series (along with many more $25 series) to profit nicely.

* CalvinTy

This is a very interesting system, Calvin. Just after baseball season started I gave systems up, but they were not money management systems like you have here. I defintely think that this would be a profitable system in the long run, and is rather ingenious if you ask me. I don't understand it FULLY but when I get some more time I will certainly take a closer look at it all.

Looking forward to anything else you post about this system and if you are going to do a "live tracking" of this system on TheRX, that would be great for people just learning about the system and trying to get the hang of it.

Great stuff!

ganchrow said:

why not just use your system at baccarat?

Click to expand...

:lol: