this is a stupid point but, i am a little giddy with my big win on clemson so...

blueedwards · Sep 4, 2007

to me, it really seems like a 3 team parlay that pays 6-1 (all teams -110) is a better bet than a +600 money line bet. to hit a +600 ml bet in a football game, you have to play a 16 or 17 point dog to win the game.

i think the odds of going 3-0 ats are much better than picking a 16 point dog to win straight up. i dont normally play parlays so, this is just speculation but...i would certainly play a 3-teamer before i'd play a +600 dog.

Illini · Sep 4, 2007

One college football season I hit 70% on 3-team parlays. It got to the point were I was pissed if I didn't win. Never played more than 3 teams, but I love the 3 teamers. Don't think I'll ever get as lucky as that one year again, but with +600, you don't have to win often.

How much did you bet on Clemson?

blueedwards · Sep 4, 2007

Illini said:
One college football season I hit 70% on 3-team parlays. It got to the point were I was pissed if I didn't win. Never played more than 3 teams, but I love the 3 teamers. Don't think I'll ever get as lucky as that one year again, but with +600, you don't have to win often.

How much did you bet on Clemson?

$800

Illini · Sep 4, 2007

blue edwards said:
$800

I guess you're buying tomorrow. :dancefool

Just kidding. Tell that wife of yours to go buy some new drapes or something. Sugardaddy.

blueedwards · Sep 4, 2007

Illini said:
I guess you're buying tomorrow.

you got it.

tell korn to make sure and remember the thing

goodcall · Sep 4, 2007

technically the 16-pt dog is the better deal, but I guess you have to go with what works! nice hit man :toast:

blueedwards · Sep 4, 2007

goodcall said:
technically the 16-pt dog is the better deal, but I guess you have to go with what works! nice hit man :toast:

it is? how do you figure that? how many 16 point dogs won straight up last year?

btw, i did not play a 3-team parlay...i was just thinking about the odds.

Journeyman · Sep 4, 2007

good for you Blue... I personally had a lousy week , lost 4 dimes...I wonder if people will believe this since it's a negative?

Illini · Sep 4, 2007

Journeyman said:
good for you Blue... I personally had a lousy week , lost 4 dimes...I wonder if people will believe this since it's a negative?

Damn, dude. Sorry to hear.

goodcall · Sep 4, 2007

blue edwards said:
it is? how do you figure that? how many 16 point dogs won straight up last year?

btw, i did not play a 3-team parlay...i was just thinking about the odds.

ohh sorry I misread your post. I thought clemson was the last leg of a 3-teamer. An extra $800 isn't bad though

I got the number from a chart I did a while ago that uses a best-fit line from a few years of spreads. I could include a few more now (the most recent year included is 2003)...I'll have to remember to update all this stuff sometime.

The percentage the chart spits out is 13.1% for 16-point dogs covering. The actual data doesn't exactly support that though, as the dogs went 6-43, or 12.2% over that time.

This of course compared to a 12.5% chance of going 3-0 ATS.

Journeyman · Sep 4, 2007

Illini said:
Damn, dude. Sorry to hear.

it happens, kinda stunned as I've had a great season til this past week, never seen so many balls hit chalk, runs cross with two outs, totals lose by a half, players die at 3rd all in ONE week:ughhh:

and I am getting roasted on top of it by the usual suspects at other places...
most hated poster in forum history

hno:

Illini · Sep 4, 2007

Journeyman said:
it happens, kinda stunned as I've had a great season til this past week, never seen so many balls hit chalk, runs cross with two outs, totals lose by a half, players die at 3rd all in ONE week:ughhh:

and I am getting roasted on top of it by the usual suspects at other places...
most hated poster in forum history hno:

What other places?

Journeyman · Sep 4, 2007

Illini said:
What other places?

the minor leagues, where they dream of being a power poster :drink:

Biggamer3 · Sep 4, 2007

Journeyman said:
good for you Blue... I personally had a lousy week , lost 4 dimes...I wonder if people will believe this since it's a negative?

I think people will believe you, i mean 4 dimes sucks but at least it wasnt a dollar!:drink:

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

goodcall said:
I got the number from a chart I did a while ago that uses a best-fit line from a few years of spreads. I could include a few more now (the most recent year included is 2003)...I'll have to remember to update all this stuff sometime.

The percentage the chart spits out is 13.1% for 16-point dogs covering. The actual data doesn't exactly support that though, as the dogs went 6-43, or 12.2% over that time.

This of course compared to a 12.5% chance of going 3-0 ATS.

goodcall, I'm curious on whether you meant "dogs covering" the spread, because blue's question was about a +600 ML dog winning straight up. Seems like you were offering information for covering the spread, but as I imagine you have seen around, I think only 1 or 2 cases of a +16 dog winning straight up in the last several years. (I recall this from surfing another forum last year when somebody was curious about how many heavy CFB underdog teams won straight up... think the answer was the heaviest dog was only +18 or +21, something like that).

That would lead credence that a 3-team ATS parlay would hit more often than a +600 ML dog? Great question, blue.

* CalvinTy

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

Journeyman said:
it happens, kinda stunned as I've had a great season til this past week, never seen so many balls hit chalk, runs cross with two outs, totals lose by a half, players die at 3rd all in ONE week:ughhh:

and I am getting roasted on top of it by the usual suspects at other places...
most hated poster in forum history hno:

Sorry about your lousy week, J-Man. You will bounce back. Also, don't let the roasters get the best of you. :103631605

* CalvinTy

goodcall · Sep 4, 2007

CalvinTy said:
goodcall, I'm curious on whether you meant "dogs covering" the spread, because blue's question was about a +600 ML dog winning straight up. Seems like you were offering information for covering the spread, but as I imagine you have seen around, I think only 1 or 2 cases of a +16 dog winning straight up in the last several years. (I recall this from surfing another forum last year when somebody was curious about how many heavy CFB underdog teams won straight up... think the answer was the heaviest dog was only +18 or +21, something like that).

That would lead credence that a 3-team ATS parlay would hit more often than a +600 ML dog? Great question, blue.

* CalvinTy

oops...yeah sorry...these numbers are for 16-point dogs winning straight-up, not just covering. not sure why I typed that:ughhh:

I don't have data for the past 3 years though...I'm a little behind

goodcall · Sep 4, 2007

Here are some massive dogs that won straight-up between '98 and '03 (last column is the spread):

Code:

9/12/1998	Iowa St   	27	Iowa       	9	-28
10/17/1998	Rutgers     	25	Pittsburgh	21	-20.5
10/17/1998	Temple     	28	Virginia Tech	24	-35.5
11/7/1998	Michigan St	28	Ohio St   	24	-27
9/18/1999	New Mexico St	35	Arizona St	7	-25
9/18/1999	No Texas 	21	Texas Tech	14	-31
10/9/1999	UNLV      	35	Wyoming 	32	-24
10/23/1999	Illinois     	35	Michigan  	29	-25
10/7/2000	Ball St     	15	Miami OH 	10	-26
10/21/2000	UConn     	38	Akron      	35	-21.5
9/8/2001 	South Florida   35	Pittsburgh	26	-24
10/13/2001	Troy State	21	Miss St    	9	-23
11/24/2001	Oklahoma St	16	Oklahoma 	13	-27
9/21/2002	San Jose St	38	Illinois      	35	-23.5
11/16/2002	Army       	14	Tulane    	10	-21
9/13/2003	UNLV       	23	Wisconsin	5	-20.5
9/20/2003	Marshall    	27	Kansas St	20	-24

Heatwave · Sep 4, 2007

If you are a 50% handicapper, you will have a 12.5% chance of hitting a 3 team parlay. Kick that up to 53%, and its 14.8%, which turns out to be a positive expectation. Of course, there is no guarantee that your future winning percentage will be 53%, but 3 team parlays paying 6-1 make have a higher expectation value than 2 teamers at 2.6-1 with the same 53% winning percentage.

Not sure about the whole money line thing at +600, but my thinking is, as mentioned before, that a +16.5 dog hits very seldom, and makes both playing that same game ATS and a 3 team parlay more profitable. I am sure some of the numbers guys here can verify.

HW