CalvinTy MM System Live Tracking

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

I made a thread (link here) a couple of days ago about a money management system that I have used in the last 2 years with my tweaks that I finally felt ready to share with RX members even though, just like everything else, it could benefit from continued refining.

As planned (and as requested by some people), I did want to do a live tracking for people to observe and hopefully follow in due time.

Like I said in my post (#21) in the other thread, here are the plan details and guidelines:

I will be playing with $25 series at this time.
I will do at least 8 series of $25 first (closing all 8 series would profit me/hopefully some followers $200). Based on heavy experience, this will take around 2 weeks (of daily plays).
From there, I'll see how things go but it's my goal to eventually do 10 of $100 series to allow fellow RXers to reap in a profit of $1K.
I will be using actual RX cappers' selections everyday in any sport, and I will mention who they are to give them the credit as well as extra exposure (and it will be done on a random basis).
However, in light of consistency, I need to collect the list of plays by NOON Central time (1pm Eastern) so that I can post my MM (money management) amounts and selections for any followers to try and follow.

Some more details:

I can add some plays later in a day if I find that I can post a couple of plays early but not wanting to wait too long for the entire list of plays to be used and bet at a later time.

I also am at the whim of posters who are ready to post their picks for me to see. I might take some service plays found in the sport's service plays thread if I desired to.

Alright, for today, I am going to start with 3 or 4 series only (not all 8!). Since today's the 1st day, I evidently will have first bets all to "win $20".

Starting with 3 plays by our Dsethi in the baseball forum (his thread here):

Series #RX-1 (10-5-10 $25 series):

1O: MLB: NYM -141; risk $28.20 to win $20.00 (BetJam)

Series #RX-2 (10-5-10 $25 series):

1O: MLB: LAD -129; risk $25.80 to win $20.00 (BetJam)

Series #RX-3 (10-5-10 $25 series):

1O: MLB: COL +104; risk $19.23 to win $20.00 (Skybook)

Note: I always make my bets with Listed pitchers.

* CalvinTy

Doug · Sep 4, 2007

I assume you aren't sticking with these teams for the next few days, is that right ?

You might change to a different capper on Weds ?

Do you follow Dsethi for awhile, then switch, or is it team based ?

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

Doug said:
I assume you aren't sticking with these teams for the next few days, is that right ?

You might change to a different capper on Weds ?

Do you follow Dsethi for awhile, then switch, or is it team based ?

Oh, this isn't a system of following any team or specific capper, no.

I personally do not cap many games in multiple sports so I collect the plays from the RX & post it in this thread to try and show how this MM system works through the grindstone.

And yes, to answer your question, I *will* change cappers as I choose from various cappers based on their write-ups, early posts, doing well, and/or selecting 1 of their top plays rather than their full card.

With baseball forum slowing down, Dsethi was the one that had 3 plays this morning that I could use so I simply chose him for today.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

Paid2play · Sep 4, 2007

Good luck Calvin. Its so easy to keep things like this to yourself. Nice to see ysomeone share this. Of course now the spotlights on. Good luck with your plays.

I myself have this system following a few cappers. One guy for my pro, one for college, and then Larry ness's 15* and 20*'s. All for pocket change.

One thing I do though is if the inside # is smaller than my original outside #, I start with a new series.( Not wanting to waste a win on my smaller inside #)

Good luck, I'm pulling for you!

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

Paid2play said:
Good luck Calvin. Its so easy to keep things like this to yourself. Nice to see ysomeone share this. Of course now the spotlights on. Good luck with your plays.

I myself have this system following a few cappers. One guy for my pro, one for college, and then Larry ness's 15* and 20*'s. All for pocket change.

One thing I do though is if the inside # is smaller than my original outside #, I start with a new series.( Not wanting to waste a win on my smaller inside #)

Good luck, I'm pulling for you!

Thanks. I don't mind the spotlight because while this kind of system is known online, it didn't address several things so that may have stopped many people from religiously following this kind of system even if they wanted to. Besides, I have data of my efforts dating back to 2005 on this system so it's not like I am testing an UNTESTED system anyway.

Yep, I use Larry Ness's plays many times (not everyday) out of habit. People talk about how he loves favorites, and that's true, but once I close a series, it doesn't matter if my bets were -125 or -145. Of course, I still line shop a tiny bit to help the series amounts stay small.

As for the Inside # being smaller--- that's exactly what I do. If I have a normal confidence play like *2 for 1-3u or *3 for 1-5u, I would rather make a new series and bet to "win $20" than to put it on Inside to "win $5". I tend to reserve $5 bets for runlines, halftimes, or heavy ML favorites for that 1st Inside bet only (i.e. -160, etc).

* CalvinTy

shdw01 · Sep 4, 2007

Calvin, I'm glad you are tracking this. I think I understand but I am curious to see what happens (erase or raise the stakes) when a particular series goes 0-3 to start....

I'm not rooting for you to lose, I want the series to come in, just want to see a long one and see how it goes (esp being a 10-5-10, shouldn't be too bad)

WorldNumberOne · Sep 4, 2007

so this isnt a system saying your 3 teams selected will win a game in their series ?

what you are saying is that you will pick a winner , any winner twice during this process..

do i have that right ?

shdw01 · Sep 4, 2007

World Number One said:
so this isnt a system saying your 3 teams selected will win a game in their series ?

what you are saying is that you will pick a winner , any winner twice during this process..

do i have that right ?

yes, this does not follow a team....his system of 10-5-10 means he wants to win $25, and he will first win $20, and after he wins, he bets $5 for the second part of the series.

if he loses the $5 he will bet $10 to close the series (+ Vig).....if he loses round 1, the $24 lost ($20 + vig) will be split 8-8-8 so his $25 series is now 18-13-18, and etc.

WorldNumberOne · Sep 4, 2007

i'm normally a pretty good math guy , but i gotta go back and re-read this thing 3 more times..

i'm not following the 10-5-10 thing if your goal is to win twice .

you've got 3 numbers listed there..

i just glanced at it , so i'll go back and read it again.

WorldNumberOne · Sep 4, 2007

i'm understanding it now..

Paid2play · Sep 4, 2007

In every series you add the 2 outside #'s for your first bet.

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

shdw01 said:
Calvin, I'm glad you are tracking this. I think I understand but I am curious to see what happens (erase or raise the stakes) when a particular series goes 0-3 to start....

I'm not rooting for you to lose, I want the series to come in, just want to see a long one and see how it goes (esp being a 10-5-10, shouldn't be too bad)

No problem. :toast:

I could update my CURRENT spreadsheet and find a series from only a few days ago or such that I could paste the details here, but either way, yeah, there WILL be series where I start 0-3 and we all can see from there.

Heck, let me paste some text right away as I quickly find it (since I already have my Excel file open for tonight's other bets, grins).

Hmm, I couldn't find any recent 0-3 skids, lol, but I see a VERY RECENT 0-2 skid but then my Insides bet went MANY bets before I finally closed it. Here goes:

----------
BC47O 1O $23.00 $20.00 08/12/2007 MLB Big Al Free Pick Pit/SF O O8 -115 [L]
BC47O 2O $34.29 $36.00 08/13/2007 NFLX Burns Monday Night ESPN Winner SF -3 +105 [L]
BC47O 3O $46.88 $60.01 08/15/2007 MLB Sebastian Sports *50 Bal +128 [W]
BC47I 1I,3O $35.65 $22.28 08/21/2007 MLB Ben Burns MLB GOY Hou -160 [L]
BC47I 2I,3O $60.83 $57.93 08/22/2007 MLB Ferringo *3.5 ChC/SF O O8 -105 [L]
BC47I 2Ix,3O $59.64 $60.83 08/23/2007 MLB Det +102 [L]
BC47I 2Ix2,3O $56.80 $59.64 08/23/2007 MLB CalvinTy Mistake Min/Bal U U9.5 +105 [W]
BC47I 2Ix,3O $39.76 $60.83 08/24/2007 MLB Lenny Del Genio MLB Underdog OY *25 Bal +153 [L]
BC47I 2Ix2,3O $49.70 $39.76 08/25/2007 NFLX Ben Burns Contrarian GOM Ari +3 -125 [W]
BC47I 2Ix,3O $69.95 $60.83 08/26/2007 MLB Ben Burns Afternoon Total Annihilator Cle/KC U U8.5 -115 [W]
BC47I 2I,3O $54.65 $57.93 08/27/2007 MLB Billy Coleman *3 NYM +106 [L]
BC47I 2Ix,3O $68.31 $54.65 08/29/2007 MLB Cin/Pit U U8.5 -125 [W]
BC47I 2I,3O $63.72 $57.93 08/31/2007 NCAAF Navy 2H -7.5 -110 2H (-21.5 FG) [L]
BC47I 2Ix,3O $70.09 $63.72 09/01/2007 NCAAF Ga Tech pk -110 [W, 33-3]
BC47I 2I,3O $71.83 $57.93 09/02/2007 MLB LN Triple Play Mil -124 [W, 4-7]
----------

I took Aug 16-Aug 20 off for the August bash for all betting. Some other days I didn't bet much or was very busy that day, so really, only 14 betting days are listed in that #BC47 series.

Looks like I went 7-8 but all those 8 losses are "erased" since I profited $25.00 for that series.

* CalvinTy

shdw01 · Sep 4, 2007

wow, these get crazy with MLB lines...i need to stick to the -110 to start me up on this....thanks for the info....this has got me more interested today....even though I should be working now

Paid2play · Sep 4, 2007

The key is bet small If you can afford to lose 7 straight times you'll be fine. Of course, lets hope you don't actually lose 7 straight times. LOL

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

shdw01 said:
wow, these get crazy with MLB lines...i need to stick to the -110 to start me up on this....thanks for the info....this has got me more interested today....even though I should be working now

Yep, that's partly the reason why I wanted to release during football/basketball season because it works best with -110 lines. You can even tolerate 0-4 skids without starting to erase previous losses, etc.

I chuckled that in the original article, I just noticed this line: "During football and basketball seasons, they used the Straight Bet Version of the System, which I detail in this chapter. For baseball and hockey bets, they used the Parlay Version of the System, which I cover in the next chapter."

I started with the Parlay Version 2 years ago, and quickly hated it. I have stuck to the Straight Bet Version even with MLB and NHL. :103631605

* CalvinTy

WorldNumberOne · Sep 4, 2007

could always use totals in baseball .. most of them are close to -110 .

shdw01 · Sep 4, 2007

Paid2play said:
The key is bet small If you can afford to lose 7 straight times you'll be fine. Of course, lets hope you don't actually lose 7 straight times. LOL

It happens, not often, but it happens more than we care to admit.

even at 1 unit/ play that is -7.7 units, not easy for anyone to stomach...

this method will reduce the 0-7 to less than 7.7 units though....the only downside is the 7-0 is only gonna be a little under 4 units.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Sep 4, 2007

Thanks for doing this and good luck! I will be tracking daily and probably playing each series once some new ones start up.

Paid2play · Sep 4, 2007

shdw01 said:
It happens, not often, but it happens more than we care to admit.

even at 1 unit/ play that is -7.7 units, not easy for anyone to stomach...

this method will reduce the 0-7 to less than 7.7 units though....the only downside is the 7-0 is only gonna be a little under 4 units.

I understand. This is really a modified money chase system. I Swear by it, but its not for everyone. My series unit is tiny compared to most gamblers but when you get hot( and it will happen) the money comes in pretty fast.

:toast:

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

shdw01 said:
It happens, not often, but it happens more than we care to admit.

even at 1 unit/ play that is -7.7 units, not easy for anyone to stomach...

this method will reduce the 0-7 to less than 7.7 units though....the only downside is the 7-0 is only gonna be a little under 4 units.

I saw this post earlier but didn't reply even though I quickly had something to explain.

First, this system actually will GO OVER a loss of more than -7.7 units after a 0-7 start to a series. Probably more than double, as a matter of fact.

But what people need to look at this-- I didn't really describe this well-- the equivalent of this system IS SIMILAR TO to the regular 1 unit - 5 units plays by any regular RX capper employing the 1-5 unit method.

Imagine a regular RX capper having this structure:

1 unit plays as opinion/action plays
3 unit plays as normal plays
with some rare 4 & 5 unit plays...
risking 3 units on the majority of plays...

In that case, a 1-5 unit capper going 5 days where their one *3 play lost would lose "around 15 or more units". In this system, since the first play is actually like 0.8 unit leading to the 3rd Outsides bet level to 2.44 units, it has the advantage of starting lower and even during my "erase mode" concept, it slowly creeps up due to erasing previous juice in the previous bet but usually hovering between 3-4 units.

Also, this bears mentioning-- the discipline factor, naturally. When a capper usually have one *3 pick per day (with some *1 and *2 plays), but after their top pick losing for 5 straight days, it's human nature to want to make a *5 play, or gasp, a *7 or *10 play. The MM system will not allow you to do that because you are restricted to the expected bet amounts in any of your open series that you have pending.

* CalvinTy