Never realized that a 53.7 win % compared to a 55% win pct is double the profits

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

at -110 lines.

My 1 year mark of betting Pinny leans/rouge numbers was September 1st. I reviewed alot of things after and looked for ways to improve. I hit at a 3% ROI over 11,000 (estimated plays). That works out to 53.8%.

Thinking about putting in some things to improve my bottom line and didnt realize that going up 1.3% on your win pct in this situation will double your profits.

I will say one bad thing is that this is easier said than done and I am almost 100% convinced that over 10,000 plays that 55% is not doable versus -110 lines. Some may not agree. The 1 good thing is high volume at 53.8% adds up (this is the part where Winbet comes in and tells me it can't be done or something to that effect. Too him I say :drink: )

I had 11 winning months out of 12. I never broke down the win pct for the whole thing (I will this year) but the few times I went back and checked 55% was about as good as it got for a long stretch. Just seems like hitting just 1.3 more bets per 100 would be easy but pretty confident it isn't.

Just thought that was interesting for people who like to look at win pct and things like that, espically with football around the corner.

Anti-liberal · Sep 4, 2007

The formula for winning in gambling is edge multiplied by volume. If the volume remains constant, but the edge is doubled, it shouldn't be a surprise that profits would double. That's just the way numbers work. The nice thing about numbers is that they always work out the same.

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

Anti-liberal said:
The formula for winning in gambling is edge multiplied by volume. If the volume remains constant, but the edge is doubled, it shouldn't be a surprise that profits would double. That's just the way numbers work. The nice thing about numbers is that they always work out the same.

I agree with th whole simple math thing. Just doesnt seem like winning a little more than 1% in this example doubles your profit. Really makes me think more about finding quality.

Hey A-L,
Was hoping you would respond in here. Been meaning to call you. E-mail me when you get a chance with your number or call me if you still have mine. Want to talk with you about a few things.
Thanks buddy.

CalvinTy · Sep 4, 2007

Iceman, I'm sure you have seen this type of discussion before where I recall reading that a book was doing some kind of internal analysis on the sharps, and they came to an interesting conclusion: all of the selected sharps that were killing the books at -110 juice, they all would have been in the red if they had to pay -120 juice. Scary but makes sense.

I mention this in parallel in how win percentages play a huge role in overcoming juice when betting with a fixed amount. No wonder so many of us, myself included, would love to tail somebody who are VERY consistent at 55% over the long haul (yet, what constitutes as "long haul"? A year, several year, or 10 years?).

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

randyrohm · Sep 4, 2007

Add some new square outs with the football bonuses. You will pick up a few tenths on your % by the 1/2 point here and there plus get the bonuses. You have come far.

Doug · Sep 4, 2007

Iceman said:
at -110 lines.

My 1 year mark of betting Pinny leans/rouge numbers was September 1st. I reviewed alot of things after and looked for ways to improve. I hit at a 3% ROI over 11,000 (estimated plays). That works out to 53.8%.

Thinking about putting in some things to improve my bottom line and didnt realize that going up 1.3% on your win pct in this situation will double your profits.

I will say one bad thing is that this is easier said than done and I am almost 100% convinced that over 10,000 plays that 55% is not doable versus -110 lines. Some may not agree. The 1 good thing is high volume at 53.8% adds up (this is the part where Winbet comes in and tells me it can't be done or something to that effect. Too him I say :drink: )

I had 11 winning months out of 12. I never broke down the win pct for the whole thing (I will this year) but the few times I went back and checked 55% was about as good as it got for a long stretch. Just seems like hitting just 1.3 more bets per 100 would be easy but pretty confident it isn't.

Just thought that was interesting for people who like to look at win pct and things like that, espically with football around the corner.

Why should it be any harder to hit 55% against -110 instead of -105 ?

totalsquare · Sep 4, 2007

are you betting the pinny leans in baseball also?..the totals on the pinny leans have been getting killed...

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

totalsquare said:
are you betting the pinny leans in baseball also?..the totals on the pinny leans have been getting killed...

yes I have. I broke down all of my baseball plays as I havent done that great with them for the whole season. I have won in every category (1st 5 inning sides and totals, team totals and game sides) except game totals and am down close to 30 units there. Since I have discovered that a few weeks ago I have adjusted slightly with them. But yes you are correct, they have alwasy been a problem for me.

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

Doug said:
Why should it be any harder to hit 55% against -110 instead of -105 ?

it isnt. It is just harder to find plays at -105 shops for me. Like I said volume is as important.

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

randyrohm said:
Add some new square outs with the football bonuses. You will pick up a few tenths on your % by the 1/2 point here and there plus get the bonuses. You have come far.

You know I am doing everything you taught me my friend. Hope you have been doing well. Married?

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

CalvinTy said:
Iceman, I'm sure you have seen this type of discussion before where I recall reading that a book was doing some kind of internal analysis on the sharps, and they came to an interesting conclusion: all of the selected sharps that were killing the books at -110 juice, they all would have been in the red if they had to pay -120 juice. Scary but makes sense.

I mention this in parallel in how win percentages play a huge role in overcoming juice when betting with a fixed amount. No wonder so many of us, myself included, would love to tail somebody who are VERY consistent at 55% over the long haul (yet, what constitutes as "long haul"? A year, several year, or 10 years?).

Cheers,

* CalvinTy

I have brought that point up on here before. It was Pinny found out if you added 10 cents juice to every losing bet made by every lifetime winner at their shop than almost EVERYONE of them went from winner to lifetime loser. Something to that effect.

In theroy what I am looking for is games where I have 10 cents juice ( as long as the juice is at a respectable number) better than Pinny or the equivalent to that in point spread sports. Meaning you have nearly the same edge a bookie has on his clients (.10 cents). Do that enough than you are actually a bookie making your own bets.

53.8% is -117 or so and most of these bets are -110 on my end.

totalsquare · Sep 4, 2007

you still using wagerstation?

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

totalsquare said:
you still using wagerstation?

no not in the past year. Pinny dynamic lines and 2 monitors. Throw in a line service and lots of time.

totalsquare · Sep 4, 2007

i mean use wagerstation to keep track of your bets..i'm suprised you don't subscribe to a line service for as many bets as you put in..i probably place half the bets you do, and it makes it so much easier...

Iceman · Sep 4, 2007

line service= Don Best

are you talking about places like WS to keep track. Find it just as eay writting them down.

Never realized that a 53.7 win % compared to a 55% win pct is double the profits

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