Good article here by Dave Tuley. Tell us of the biggest point spread upset.
Review of NCAA opening weekend; NFL on deck
Posted by Dave Tuley at 9/3/2007 10:12 AM and is filed under Monday Morning Report
For all those who have been waiting for the football season to start, Saturday brought a lot of action. It was wall-to-wall football in the sports books here in Vegas as there were 36 games on the betting boards and the majority of them were beamed in on the satellites.
The highlight of the day was Appalachian State's 34-32 upset of No. 5-ranked Michigan. It was the first time that a Division I-AA team (now known as Football Championship Subdivision) has beaten a team ranked in the AP poll. But while most of the major powers rolls over their Division I-AA foes, Appalachian St. was hardly a creampuff as the two-time defending I-AA champions received 69 of 70 first-place votes in the FCS poll.
So, even though many people are calling this the biggest upset in college football history, it's up for debate.
The game wasn't on the regular betting rotation used by Las Vegas and offshore sports books — as is usually the case when a game involved I-AA teams — but the Las Vegas Hilton posted the only number I saw when it opened Michigan -28.5. Sports books supervisor Matt Metcalfe came up with the number, and reported that bets came in at a 10-1 ratio in favor of the Wolverines, who closed as a 31-point favorite.
That's a big number, but it's not the biggest upset in the sport from a point-spread perspective. There's no definitive record book for this sport of thing, but the biggest upset I found was UTEP beating BYU 23-16 in "The Miner Miracle" as a whopping 40-point underdog in 1985. UTEP was the worst team in the WAC at that time (and for a long time) and BYU was the defending national champions with Robbie Bosco back at quarterback for his senior season. Adding to the upset was that it ended up being UTEP's only win of the year while BYU again rolled to the WAC title.
Others that exceeded Appalachian's feat were Oregon State's 21-20 win over Washington as a 37-point underdog in 1985 and Temple's 28-24 victory over Virginia Tech as a 35.5-point underdog in 1998, with North Texas matching it as a 31.5-point favorite with a 21-14 win over Texas Tech in 1991.
* But the Appalachian game was an aberration on Saturday as favorites mostly rolled. In the 36 lined games, favorites went 24-12 (66.7 percent) against the spread. If you toss out the "added games" of those that typically match the major schools against opponents from lower Division I conferences, the favorites went 21-8 (72.4 percent) on the main board. For the most part, sports books in Las Vegas got knocked around as tourists.
* My alter ego of Tuley the Tout, who tends to look at underdogs, had a rough week going 1-2 with official plays for a net loss of 1.2 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1) but also didn't do well on recommendations to bet the overs when the totals first came out. I'll try to bounce back this upcoming weekend with my plays posted by Friday.
* ViewFromVegas.com was the first place to post lines for the upcoming week's college football games. Sports book veteran Andy Ducay has committed to post his own numbers in the ViewFromVegas Forums each week. He posted at 12:35 a.m. Sunday, some 13 hours before Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its openers on Sunday afternoon. A comparison of the numbers showed that Ducay was spot-on, or at least in the neighborhood, with most of the numbers. When Pinnacle was the first offshore to put up its numbers on Sunday afternoon, the numbers that Ducay was off with LVSC usually were shaded in the direction of him, with several other times of Ducay's numbers splitting the difference. The numbers are meant as a guide as college football followers start their handicapping for the next week, and discussion is certainly welcome in the forum as we try to find the right sides. Leroy's was the only sports book in Las Vegas to post college football numbers on Sunday night and releases them on its radio show at 10 p.m. Pacific. It's on KDWN AM-720, whose signal reaches most of the West Coast. The show can also be heard online at kdwn.com and live and archived at americanwagering.com.
NFL openers are up next
NFL Week 1 lines have been up at some Las Vegas sports books since April and for more than a month at all of them, so I won't have my usual early-week week analysis of the NFL opening line moves. Or will I. Heck, here's a look at this week's NFL lines as they appeared at the Las Vegas Hilton in April and the current lines as of Monday morning.
<TABLE height=428 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width=712 align=left border=2><TBODY><TR><TD>FAVORITE
</TD><TD>OPENING
</TD><TD>CURRENT
</TD><TD>UNDERDOG
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COLTS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-5.5
</TD><TD>Saints
</TD></TR><TR><TD>TEXANS</TD><TD>+1
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Chiefs
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Broncos
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>BILLS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steelers
</TD><TD>-4
</TD><TD>-5
</TD><TD>Browns
</TD></TR><TR><TD>JAGUARS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>Texans
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RAMS
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>Panthers
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eagles
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>PACKERS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>VIKINGS
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Falcons
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Redskins
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>DOLPHINS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Patriots
</TD><TD>-5
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>Jets
</TD></TR><TR><TD>SEAHAWKS
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Buccaneers
</TD></TR><TR><TD>CHARGERS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Bears
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RAIDERS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-1.5
</TD><TD>Lions
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COWBOYS
</TD><TD>-4
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Giants
</TD></TR><TR><TD>BENGALS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-2.5
</TD><TD>Ravens
</TD></TR><TR><TD>49ERS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Cardinals
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The biggest line move isn't on the Vikings going from pick-em vs. the Falcons to a 3-point favorite (which is mostly the result of Michael Vick being suspended after his indictment on federal dogfighting charges), but with the Texans going from a 1-point home underdog vs. the Chiefs to a 3-point favorite. No other lines have moved more than 2 points in the past four months, though the steam lately has been on the Cowboys who have gone from a 4-point favorite over the Giants to -6.
Sports books notes
* Jimmie Johnson took the checkered flag in Sunday's Sharp Aquos 500 Nextel Cup race as the 5-1 favorite at Station Casinos sports books here. It was Johnson's fifth win of the year and clinched a spot in the Chase for the Cup over the final 10 races of the year, along with teammate Kurt Busch, a Las Vegas native. Yet another teammate, Jeff Gordon, leads the points standings and is the 5-2 favorite to win the title.
* The U.S. men's basketball team beat Argentina 118-81 Sunday at the Thomas & Mack Center here in Las Vegas to win the FIBA Americas championship. Both teams earned a berth in the Summer Olympics in China next year. Since this was an Olympic-qualifying tourney, there was no legalized wagering available in Las Vegas. The U.S. dominated the tourney, winning their 10 games by an average of 39.5 points behind NBA starts LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and a strong supporting cast. Argentina, which won the Olympic golf in 2004, was playing without many of its top players, including Manu Ginobili.
* As of this posting Monday morning, the leaders in the Deutsche Bank Championship were teeing off in the final round of the Friday through Monday PGA event. Brett Wetterich, so much of a longshot that he wasn't on the list of individual players at the Las Vegas Hilton and was thus included in the "field of all others" at 6-1, was at -13 with a one-stroke lead over Arron Oberholser (60-1). Lurking in third place another shot back was Phil Mickelson (15-1) with three players at 10-under, including Steve Stricker (40-1), Aaron Baddely (100-1) and some guy named Tiger Woods (7-4).
* With it being Labor Day and another four weeks left in season, it's a good time to get check World Series futures odds. Las Vegas Sports Consultants has the Red Sox as a lukewarm favorite at 7-2, followed by the Mets at 5-1, the Yankees at 11-2, the Angels at 6-1 and the Padres at 9-1. The rest of the teams with a realistic chance of at least making the postseason: Cubs and Tigers (both at 10-1), Indians (11-1), Diamondbacks (16-1), Brewers (18-1), Braves, Dodgers and Phillies (20-1), Cardinals (28-1), Mariners (35-1), and Rockies (75-1).
Review of NCAA opening weekend; NFL on deck
Posted by Dave Tuley at 9/3/2007 10:12 AM and is filed under Monday Morning Report
For all those who have been waiting for the football season to start, Saturday brought a lot of action. It was wall-to-wall football in the sports books here in Vegas as there were 36 games on the betting boards and the majority of them were beamed in on the satellites.
The highlight of the day was Appalachian State's 34-32 upset of No. 5-ranked Michigan. It was the first time that a Division I-AA team (now known as Football Championship Subdivision) has beaten a team ranked in the AP poll. But while most of the major powers rolls over their Division I-AA foes, Appalachian St. was hardly a creampuff as the two-time defending I-AA champions received 69 of 70 first-place votes in the FCS poll.
So, even though many people are calling this the biggest upset in college football history, it's up for debate.
The game wasn't on the regular betting rotation used by Las Vegas and offshore sports books — as is usually the case when a game involved I-AA teams — but the Las Vegas Hilton posted the only number I saw when it opened Michigan -28.5. Sports books supervisor Matt Metcalfe came up with the number, and reported that bets came in at a 10-1 ratio in favor of the Wolverines, who closed as a 31-point favorite.
That's a big number, but it's not the biggest upset in the sport from a point-spread perspective. There's no definitive record book for this sport of thing, but the biggest upset I found was UTEP beating BYU 23-16 in "The Miner Miracle" as a whopping 40-point underdog in 1985. UTEP was the worst team in the WAC at that time (and for a long time) and BYU was the defending national champions with Robbie Bosco back at quarterback for his senior season. Adding to the upset was that it ended up being UTEP's only win of the year while BYU again rolled to the WAC title.
Others that exceeded Appalachian's feat were Oregon State's 21-20 win over Washington as a 37-point underdog in 1985 and Temple's 28-24 victory over Virginia Tech as a 35.5-point underdog in 1998, with North Texas matching it as a 31.5-point favorite with a 21-14 win over Texas Tech in 1991.
* But the Appalachian game was an aberration on Saturday as favorites mostly rolled. In the 36 lined games, favorites went 24-12 (66.7 percent) against the spread. If you toss out the "added games" of those that typically match the major schools against opponents from lower Division I conferences, the favorites went 21-8 (72.4 percent) on the main board. For the most part, sports books in Las Vegas got knocked around as tourists.
* My alter ego of Tuley the Tout, who tends to look at underdogs, had a rough week going 1-2 with official plays for a net loss of 1.2 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1) but also didn't do well on recommendations to bet the overs when the totals first came out. I'll try to bounce back this upcoming weekend with my plays posted by Friday.
* ViewFromVegas.com was the first place to post lines for the upcoming week's college football games. Sports book veteran Andy Ducay has committed to post his own numbers in the ViewFromVegas Forums each week. He posted at 12:35 a.m. Sunday, some 13 hours before Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out its openers on Sunday afternoon. A comparison of the numbers showed that Ducay was spot-on, or at least in the neighborhood, with most of the numbers. When Pinnacle was the first offshore to put up its numbers on Sunday afternoon, the numbers that Ducay was off with LVSC usually were shaded in the direction of him, with several other times of Ducay's numbers splitting the difference. The numbers are meant as a guide as college football followers start their handicapping for the next week, and discussion is certainly welcome in the forum as we try to find the right sides. Leroy's was the only sports book in Las Vegas to post college football numbers on Sunday night and releases them on its radio show at 10 p.m. Pacific. It's on KDWN AM-720, whose signal reaches most of the West Coast. The show can also be heard online at kdwn.com and live and archived at americanwagering.com.
NFL openers are up next
NFL Week 1 lines have been up at some Las Vegas sports books since April and for more than a month at all of them, so I won't have my usual early-week week analysis of the NFL opening line moves. Or will I. Heck, here's a look at this week's NFL lines as they appeared at the Las Vegas Hilton in April and the current lines as of Monday morning.
<TABLE height=428 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width=712 align=left border=2><TBODY><TR><TD>FAVORITE
</TD><TD>OPENING
</TD><TD>CURRENT
</TD><TD>UNDERDOG
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COLTS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-5.5
</TD><TD>Saints
</TD></TR><TR><TD>TEXANS</TD><TD>+1
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Chiefs
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Broncos
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>BILLS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Steelers
</TD><TD>-4
</TD><TD>-5
</TD><TD>Browns
</TD></TR><TR><TD>JAGUARS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>Texans
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RAMS
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>Panthers
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eagles
</TD><TD>-3.5
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>PACKERS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>VIKINGS
</TD><TD>PK
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Falcons
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Redskins
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>DOLPHINS
</TD></TR><TR><TD>Patriots
</TD><TD>-5
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>Jets
</TD></TR><TR><TD>SEAHAWKS
</TD><TD>-6.5
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Buccaneers
</TD></TR><TR><TD>CHARGERS
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Bears
</TD></TR><TR><TD>RAIDERS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-1.5
</TD><TD>Lions
</TD></TR><TR><TD>COWBOYS
</TD><TD>-4
</TD><TD>-6
</TD><TD>Giants
</TD></TR><TR><TD>BENGALS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-2.5
</TD><TD>Ravens
</TD></TR><TR><TD>49ERS
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>-3
</TD><TD>Cardinals
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The biggest line move isn't on the Vikings going from pick-em vs. the Falcons to a 3-point favorite (which is mostly the result of Michael Vick being suspended after his indictment on federal dogfighting charges), but with the Texans going from a 1-point home underdog vs. the Chiefs to a 3-point favorite. No other lines have moved more than 2 points in the past four months, though the steam lately has been on the Cowboys who have gone from a 4-point favorite over the Giants to -6.
Sports books notes
* Jimmie Johnson took the checkered flag in Sunday's Sharp Aquos 500 Nextel Cup race as the 5-1 favorite at Station Casinos sports books here. It was Johnson's fifth win of the year and clinched a spot in the Chase for the Cup over the final 10 races of the year, along with teammate Kurt Busch, a Las Vegas native. Yet another teammate, Jeff Gordon, leads the points standings and is the 5-2 favorite to win the title.
* The U.S. men's basketball team beat Argentina 118-81 Sunday at the Thomas & Mack Center here in Las Vegas to win the FIBA Americas championship. Both teams earned a berth in the Summer Olympics in China next year. Since this was an Olympic-qualifying tourney, there was no legalized wagering available in Las Vegas. The U.S. dominated the tourney, winning their 10 games by an average of 39.5 points behind NBA starts LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and a strong supporting cast. Argentina, which won the Olympic golf in 2004, was playing without many of its top players, including Manu Ginobili.
* As of this posting Monday morning, the leaders in the Deutsche Bank Championship were teeing off in the final round of the Friday through Monday PGA event. Brett Wetterich, so much of a longshot that he wasn't on the list of individual players at the Las Vegas Hilton and was thus included in the "field of all others" at 6-1, was at -13 with a one-stroke lead over Arron Oberholser (60-1). Lurking in third place another shot back was Phil Mickelson (15-1) with three players at 10-under, including Steve Stricker (40-1), Aaron Baddely (100-1) and some guy named Tiger Woods (7-4).
* With it being Labor Day and another four weeks left in season, it's a good time to get check World Series futures odds. Las Vegas Sports Consultants has the Red Sox as a lukewarm favorite at 7-2, followed by the Mets at 5-1, the Yankees at 11-2, the Angels at 6-1 and the Padres at 9-1. The rest of the teams with a realistic chance of at least making the postseason: Cubs and Tigers (both at 10-1), Indians (11-1), Diamondbacks (16-1), Brewers (18-1), Braves, Dodgers and Phillies (20-1), Cardinals (28-1), Mariners (35-1), and Rockies (75-1).
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