First Thursday/Monday nite football thread of the year (figuring out line movement)

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

Quite a few of us started some line movement type threads on Monday NFL games last year.

Alof of interesting debate on which way the line is moving and not only was it educational but very profitable. Some middles were hit or just beating the closing line by betting at the right time helped turn some losses to pushes and pushes to wins.

Hoping to get something going again on these regards.

Here is tonite's line currently at Pinnacle:
Indy -6
over/under 52.5
Indy -3/-3.5 1st half
over/under 27 1st half

I bet alot of over 51 on Sunday and am pretty happy with that, will try to middle it later. Betting a few days before the Monday/Thursday nighter can set up some good middles, espically when you have a feel which way the line is going (obviously).

Would think with the late masses coming in later today and the Colts playing tonite, the total should go up.

Not sure NO Saints +3.5 1st half can be found in many places (SIA availbile) but that number would be nice.

Fishhead and MJ21 (what happend to him) and alot of others were involved in these type threads last year. So get in here ******, we got some work to do.

Which way do you guys see the number going tonite?

Good luck this season everyone!!!!

BetIt · Sep 6, 2007

Total won't go anywhere but up

Two offensive teams, nationally televised games, it has little chance of going down.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

BetIt said:
Total won't go anywhere but up

Two offensive teams, nationally televised games, it has little chance of going down.

Right on. I think the decent bet is too look like crazy for a 26 1st half and then cross your fingers the 1st half total hits 28. That would be a good bet, just not sure it will make it that high.

CapNWatch · Sep 6, 2007

Yeah...total will only go up....it looks like Saints are slowly being bet down but my gametime it will be back. I say this thing settles at 6. Ice I really like the Saints first half the 3.5 looks good. Was going to take them for the game but like 3.5 first H better.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

CapNWatch said:
Yeah...total will only go up....it looks like Saints are slowly being bet down but my gametime it will be back. I say this thing settles at 6. Ice I really like the Saints first half the 3.5 looks good. Was going to take them for the game but like 3.5 first H better.

agree with the +3.5 being solid. Busted out at SIA the other day and will reload later today (15% bonus there today:toast: ).

You see +3.5 anywhere else? Bodg according to RX live odds.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

Goodbye 52.5. Looks like 52.5 is only at Matchbook and Pinny. Seeing some 53.5 out there.

I know I will be betting some unders later today.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

Grabbed some +3.5 at BetED. Not sure if this will be gone or is going up.

Hoping for +7 come game time somewhere (maybe a local).

VIEJODINOSAUR · Sep 6, 2007

The total will come rushing down sometime late this afternnoon...just an opinon....defenses are often ahead of the offenses early in the season...

CapNWatch · Sep 6, 2007

Iceman said:
Grabbed some +3.5 at BetED. Not sure if this will be gone or is going up.

Hoping for +7 come game time somewhere (maybe a local).

I think the 3.5 will be gone by game time or very chalky. I'm going to give my local a call later and see if he has 7 as well.

Iceman · Sep 6, 2007

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
The total will come rushing down sometime late this afternnoon...just an opinon....defenses are often ahead of the offenses early in the season...

I agree with the game going under. My argument is the way the betting will go.

This might be a true sign that alot of smaller late day players are not posted up offshore this year when in the past this number would rise. We shall see.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Sep 6, 2007

Smaller players will never move the line...sharper players move the line up and of course the real wise guys pound the number under...what sometimes moves the lines is when the big shops move the number and the smaller shops move the number on air to keep up with the Pinnys and Cris, thus creating a small panic with the smaller books...JMO