Service Plays 09/06/07

Larry Ness

Larry Ness' 15* Getaway Day Game of the Week (26-7 since Aug 7 / 109-37 this season!)
My 15* play is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Dodgers play their final game of the season against a non-NL West opponent on Thursday when they complete a four-game set against the NL Central-leading Cubs at Wrigley Field. Los Angeles (73-66) trails first-place Arizona by four games in the West and San Diego by three for the wild card. After Thursday's game, the Dodgers will play exclusively within their division, which means 16 of their final 22 games are against teams with winning records. It's possible that Chicago (71-67) may not play another winning team after Thursday. The Cubs have completed their season series with second-place Milwaukee but have five left against third-place St. Louis, which is currently at .500. Every other team on Chicago's remaining schedule has a losing record! After losing the first two games of this series, the Cubs bounced back with an 8-2 win last night. Today's pitching matchup features Derek Lowe (11-12, 3.80 ERA) and Jason Marquis (11-8, 4.20 ERA). Lowe has been streaky this year. He pitched poorly at San Diego last Saturday (4.1 IP / 6 ERs) in a 7-0 loss but entered that game on a three-game winning streak (3.15 ERA). That streak was preceded by a four-start stretch in which he had gone 0-3 (team was 0-4) with an 8.00 ERA. I think it would surprise most that the Cubs are 18-10 (plus-$851) when Marquis starts, which ranks him 11th of 293 pitchers in '07 vs the moneyline. Marquis is 8-3 with a 4.12 ERA at Wrirley , as the Cubs have won 12 of his 15 starts. The Cubs have received a quiet series to this point from sluggers Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Lee is 2-for-11 in the first three games and Ramirez is 2-for-9, although he had a two-run homer in the third inning on Wednesday. Expect those two to break out here and for the Cubs to ride Marquis to a win. Getaway Day Game of the Week 15* Chi Cubs.
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Ben Burns

Personal LAA
Blue Chip Total under Cards
NFL Best Bet Colts
Roast Cinn Bearcats

Michael Cannon Money Train

Thursday Picks:

30 Dime –

SAINTS
Take the points with the Saints tonight on the road against the Colts.
You could make a good argument for both teams in this one, but the fact that the Saints are a dome team and have an offense that can match the Colts point-for-point makes them the play here.
While the Colts have lost several key players from last season, particularly on defense, the Saints return virtually everyone and have added cornerback Jason David (a former Colt) and linebacker Brian Simmons through free agency.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees was great in the preseason, completing 36 of 45 attempts, including 35 of his last 39! His ability to check off to his running backs out of the backfield will keep an already shaky Indy defense on their heels. This will open up the running game for Deuce McAllister and the always dynamic Reggie Bush.
Peyton Manning will be able to move the ball and put points on the board as usual, but the loss of slot-receiver Brandon Stokley and left tackle Tarik Glenn may take some getting used to. Rookies Anthony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh will take over respectively, so don’t be surprised to see some growing pains from those two positions.
The Saints were 7-1 ATS on the road last year and Brees has a 19-4-2 ATS record as a starter in the NFL.
The Colts will have to buck some negative history in this one, as defending Super Bowl champs are just 3-11-1 ATS in Game One if they won 16 or more games the previous season. That number shrinks to a 1-10-1 ATS mark if they are matched against an opponent who won 6 or more games the previous year.
The Saints will play with a chip on their shoulder as they look to make amends for last year’s meltdown in the NFC Championship game, while the Colts may suffer the effects from a Super Bowl hangover.
Take the points as the Saints keep this one close and don’t be surprised if a last-possession field goal decides it either way.

10 Dime –

LOUISVILLE
Lay the huge number with Louisville tonight when they host Middle Tennessee State.
As if having far superior talent isn’t enough, Louisville will enjoy other advantages tonight which will allow them to roll easily.
First of all, they are playing on an entire week’s rest, after dismantling division 1-AA Murray State last Thursday, 73-10. Second, and perhaps most important, is the fact this game is being played in their backyard at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
Louisville is on spread runs of 19-7 at home and 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with losing records.
Middle Tennessee State is on a short week after losing 27-14 at Florida International on Saturday. They managed just 217 total yards and gave up 411 on defense. The Blue Raiders are 0-5 SUATS in their last five games, including a 31-14 blowout loss to Central Michigan in last year’s Motor City Bowl.
There’s no way they’re going to hold Brian Brohm and the Cardinals down tonight on the road.
In Louisville’s last four lined games versus current SBC teams, the Cardinals are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents 201-41.
Middle Tennessee is 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS when allowing more than 31 points in a game.
I think it’s safe to assume Louisville will put up more than 31 points tonight.
Lay the big number with Louisville as they win and cover easily
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Brandon Lang



20 DIME
Saints



5 DIME
Cincinnati Bearcats
Red Sox -1 1/2 runs - Wakefield vs Olson


Free pick - Louisville
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JIM FEIST

BASEBALL 2007 REGULAR SEASON PACKAGE

(909) CLE Indians vs (910) LA Angels Game Starts at September 06 2007 19:05 EST
Take (909) Cleveland Indians
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WD COMP MLB PLAY

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +100

Jason Marquis was having a very good year. As the calendar turned to June his ERA was 2.84, and all was well. He has since pitched poorly as his ERA over his last 16 starts has been 5.36. Derek Lowe has had an up and down season, but he is at his best after a bad start. Lowe gave up six earned runs his last time out. This season Lowe has given up four earned runs or more in nine starts, and in his next start after allowing four or more he has been at his best, as he has pitched to a 2.95 ERA. We expect a good start from him today. The Dodgers followed up their worst stretch of the season where they went just 4-15, to have now won 13 of 20. The Cubs used a 19-5 run to put themselves in the race, but have been just 20-23 since. The Dodgers will win, and take this series three games to one.
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Bobby Maxwell

Is there any team hotter right now than the Cleveland Indians? And yet they are getting plus-money tonight in Anaheim, Calif. as they take on the Angels. With our Bonus Play we're going with the Tribe to keep it going and win this one against Los Angeles.
Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games and send former Angel Paul Byrd (14-5, 4.35 ERA) to the mound today. Byrd has won his last three starts and is 6-2 on the road this season. in his last outing he threw a complete-game, four-hit shutout against the White Sox as the Indians won 7-0.
The Indians have won eight of his last 10 outings and the two times he's faced his former mates the last two years he's pitched well, allowing a combined five runs over 13 innings.
Kelvim Escobar (15-7, 2.99) has a 5.94 ERA in his last three starts and has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts, including Saturday when he gave up five runs on six hits in just 2 2/3 innings of a 7-6 loss to the Rangers at home.
Cleveland just swept a three-game set in Minnesota and will head West and get the job done in this one. Play the Indians.

2* CLEVELAND
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Tony Mathews

Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles

Selection: Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs (-105)

Explanation: We will side with the Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Baltimore Orioles in Thursday's MLB contest.

The Boston Red Sox will use starting pitcher Tim Wakefield. Tim Wakefield has been pitching perfect as of late. In fact, Tim Wakefield is a perfect 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last 3 starts (Tim Wakefield has given up zero runs in his last 22 innings pitched). We expect another solid start by Tim Wakefield tonight.

As for the Baltimore Orioles, they will use starting pitcher Garrett Olson. Garrett Olson has had a bad overall season (7.22 ERA) as well as continues to get worse (10.38 ERA in his last 3 starts). To say the least, this powerful Boston Red Sox offense should be able to score many runs tonight.

The Boston Red Sox are 37-17 in their last 54 meetings against the Baltimore Orioles, and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!

Take the Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs
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Donald Tran

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Sport: MLB
Matchup: Cleveland at LA Angels
Prediction: LA Angels -145 W/ Escobar

Ferringo Baseball - Small Card

2-Unit Play. Take #910 Los Angeles Angels (-150) over Cleveland (10 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 6)
Kelvim Escobar has been touched for five or more runs just five times in 26 starts this year, including his last outing against the Rangers. In his next start after getting roughed up Escobar is 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA. He hurled an average of eight runs in each of those outings and I expect more of the same tonight. The Angels are 10-3 in Escobar's last 13 home games and the Indians are 2-10 behind Paul Byrd as an underdog of +110 to +150.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Los Angeles Angels over Cleveland (10 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 6)
The 'under' is 5-0 in the last five meetings and I expect a tightly played, playoff-type game. Both pitchers are gamers and I look for them to each have their best stuff. The 'under' is 36-16-2 in Escobar's last 54 starts and is 23-11-1 in Cleveland's last 35 overall. Further, the Indians are like the Red Sox - they are a dead 'under' bet against teams with a winning record. The high-powered offense comes out against the weaklings, but against the big boys they are closely contested grinders. That's what I'm looking for this evening - a 4-2 Angels win.
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Best I can do guys at work. Where is everybody?

Sebastian

50* Cinn
7* Cubs
5* Colts
10*det
10*balt
10* Stl Und

Ats Lock Club
3 units on the Chicago Cubs (pk) over the LA Dodgers, 2:20

I posted some in the NCAA football section

We sure did clean up yesterday though didn't we!!! I won every game!

post them here please...we arent gonna have two of these everyday i dont think

Wolkosky Milan

60-36-1 last nineteen days!!!

Today:



20* NO/IND UNDER 53½
10* COLTS -6



10* MTS/LOU UNDER 62
10* BLUE RAIDERS +41



10* RED SOX -158
10* ANGELS -145


Free: BEAVERS -3½

SCI Sports
last nineteen days: 39-16
nine days winning streak before this one!
three days winning streak!

3-0 tuesday!
3-0 yesterday!



MAC SCI - Chw/Det o9½

JON REIL SCI - Angels -150
(Byrd, Escobar)

TUL SCI - Orioles +1½ -111
(Wakefield, Olson)

Michael Cannon Money Train

Thursday Picks:

30 Dime –

SAINTS
Take the points with the Saints tonight on the road against the Colts.
You could make a good argument for both teams in this one, but the fact that the Saints are a dome team and have an offense that can match the Colts point-for-point makes them the play here.
While the Colts have lost several key players from last season, particularly on defense, the Saints return virtually everyone and have added cornerback Jason David (a former Colt) and linebacker Brian Simmons through free agency.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees was great in the preseason, completing 36 of 45 attempts, including 35 of his last 39! His ability to check off to his running backs out of the backfield will keep an already shaky Indy defense on their heels. This will open up the running game for Deuce McAllister and the always dynamic Reggie Bush.
Peyton Manning will be able to move the ball and put points on the board as usual, but the loss of slot-receiver Brandon Stokley and left tackle Tarik Glenn may take some getting used to. Rookies Anthony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh will take over respectively, so don’t be surprised to see some growing pains from those two positions.
The Saints were 7-1 ATS on the road last year and Brees has a 19-4-2 ATS record as a starter in the NFL.
The Colts will have to buck some negative history in this one, as defending Super Bowl champs are just 3-11-1 ATS in Game One if they won 16 or more games the previous season. That number shrinks to a 1-10-1 ATS mark if they are matched against an opponent who won 6 or more games the previous year.
The Saints will play with a chip on their shoulder as they look to make amends for last year’s meltdown in the NFC Championship game, while the Colts may suffer the effects from a Super Bowl hangover.
Take the points as the Saints keep this one close and don’t be surprised if a last-possession field goal decides it either way.

10 Dime –

LOUISVILLE
Lay the huge number with Louisville tonight when they host Middle Tennessee State.
As if having far superior talent isn’t enough, Louisville will enjoy other advantages tonight which will allow them to roll easily.
First of all, they are playing on an entire week’s rest, after dismantling division 1-AA Murray State last Thursday, 73-10. Second, and perhaps most important, is the fact this game is being played in their backyard at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium.
Louisville is on spread runs of 19-7 at home and 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with losing records.
Middle Tennessee State is on a short week after losing 27-14 at Florida International on Saturday. They managed just 217 total yards and gave up 411 on defense. The Blue Raiders are 0-5 SUATS in their last five games, including a 31-14 blowout loss to Central Michigan in last year’s Motor City Bowl.
There’s no way they’re going to hold Brian Brohm and the Cardinals down tonight on the road.
In Louisville’s last four lined games versus current SBC teams, the Cardinals are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents 201-41.
Middle Tennessee is 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS when allowing more than 31 points in a game.
I think it’s safe to assume Louisville will put up more than 31 points tonight.
Lay the big number with Louisville as they win and cover easily

The Wunderdog

Game: New Orleans at Indianapolis (Thursday 9/06 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 53 -110

The NFL regular season kicks-off tonight in a battle between two big-time heavyweights. The Superbowl Champion Colts host the upstart Saints. This match-up features two of the most potent offenses in the NFL and most folks are expecting a shootout. But we beg to differ. Week one of the NFL season is not the week you typically see everything flowing offensively. This total is based on how these teams performed "as a whole" last year. It is probably the right total - if these teams were already in mid-season form. The Colts have had a high powered offense now for several years, but does that equate to a high octane performance in week one? You guessed it - no! The last four seasons the Colts have averaged 21 points scored in week one. They have allowed an average of just 13. They have not topped 26 points offensively and their week-one scoring is consistently much lower than their season average. The Colts scored 26 last year in game one, which ranked as their 9th highest output for the season. The 2005 opener saw them score 24 which was their 11th ranked output for the season. The '04 Colts scored 24 in week one, good for their 12th best. Finally, the '03 Colts put up 9 (their 16th ranked output for the year). So, yes - the Colts score, but not nearly as much in their opener. Week one is rarely, if ever, one of their higher scoring games. It has in fact averaged a rank of 12 out of 16 over four years. Also, the UNDER has hit in 10 of Indy's last 15 home games. The Saints last year became an offensive juggernaut for the first time in many years. But even last year they weren't clicking in week one. They scored 19 points which ranked 13th best out of the 16 games they played. The more you look at this total, the more out of whack it looks. No NFL first week total as far back as 1995, has ever been posted this high! There have been 24 games over the past six seasons with opening game totals of 45+ and the UNDER has come through in 20 of the 24 (83.3%)! The oddsmakers and public are enamored with, and focused!
on, the
high profile offensive stars in this game (Manning, Harrison, Bush, Brees). That has resulted in a line that is way off and we'll jump on the value on the other side. This is just too high for a game one, and we will play UNDER.