Service Plays 9/8/07

Dave Malinsky - 5*

PICK: Virginia (-16.5)
REASON FOR PICK: 5* VIRGINIA over DUKE

Here’s the thing about bad teams – they are bad. That might not sound all that brilliant, so let’s rephrase in a way that really matters in the work that we do - Most genuinely bad teams are even worse than scores and statistics show. And that is part of the story behind this one.

Duke is the prototype of being a bad team, and carrying a 21-game losing streak should have most thinking they are fully aware of how bad the Blue Devils are. But when you are bad at an extreme level, you get a reprieve on both the scoreboards and in the stat columns. Almost all of the opponents end up taking it easy against you, and you rarely have to take their best punch. You do not have to face the other team’s starters for the entire game, and instead of having an aggressive opponent attacking on offense in the second half, many games find them backing off instead, and just trying to work the clock and get the game over with. As such, bad teams can still cover a fair share of pointspreads, not so much because of any particular skill that they brought to the event, but rather because the other side was not trying very hard.

So what happens on those rare occasions when someone attacks a bad team with their full arsenal? What happened to Duke last week, and what will happen to Duke here.

On Saturday the Blue Devils thought they had a real chance to end the nation’s longest losing streak, facing a mediocre Connecticut team from the Big East. And when they caught a break by returning a kickoff for a touchdown, they actually went into the locker room ahead 14-11 at halftime. But all that did was lead to coach Ted Roof’s worst nightmare – having to face an opponent that was going to come out of the locker angry and ready to go hard the rest of the way. And it was ugly. The Huskies went on a dominating 34-0 run after intermission, and when all of the counting was over it was 45-14 on the scoreboard, 23-10 in first downs and 487-169 in total offense. Now the even worse news for Roof is that his team will get a full game of that treatment this week.

Off of a dismal opening loss at Wyoming there is a real sense of urgency for Al Groh here. In a season in which big things are expected it means a “no prisoners” attitude, especially as he catches flack from the local media in what could be his final season, if things do not turn around. And perhaps the best way to measure Groh for this setting is to look at his own history a bit, both as a big home favorite in a conference game, and against this Duke program. That is what cements the play. Groh has been favored more than a TD five times in the last six seasons vs. A.C.C. oppponents, and got the money every time. The last four seasons his Cavaliers have whipped the Blue Devils by a combined 139-23, for 29 points per game, and in the last two it has been 75-7. That is exactly what we want to see.

Although the Virginia offense is indeed nothing special, it does not have to be in this spread range. The Cavalier defense has a chance to be one of the 20 best in the nation this season, and there is every reason to believe that they can pitch a shutout this week. They did LY, holding the Duke offense to 100 yards, and two years ago it was 31-0 in the fourth quarter before the Blue Devils were able to score against the reserve defenders. And because of some other key circumstances, this is one game in which we can confidently use defense to cover a double-figure spread, which is the final piece of the puzzle.

As bad as the Blue Devils are on both sides of the ball, there is a key element in which they are particularly horrendous – the punting game. It was so bad on Saturday that they used three different punters, two freshmen and a sophomore, and they combined for an awful 28.7 yards on seven punts. That is correct, 28.7. That means plenty of favorable field position opportunities for the Cavalier offense to get untracked, and they make up for last week’s awful showing by breaking this one wide open

Doc's Sports

3 Unit Play. #20 Take Penn State -17 ½ over Notre Dame (Saturday 6:00 pm ESPN) We stated last week that Georgia Tech over Notre Dame might be the real gift of the weekend and Christmas it was, as the Irish were destroyed. Things will not get any better here, as Notre Dame will pay for that 41-17 win in South Bend last season. Reports are freshman QB Clausen will start and this is not the best spot for the youngster against a swarming defense. I predicted the Irish would lose their first four, loss No. 2 comes Saturday. Would pull more money out of my wallet, but the inflated line make me a bit cautious, but not enough to worry. Penn State 35, Notre Dame 10.

4 Unit Play. #43 Take South Carolina +4 ½ over Georgia (Saturday 5:45 pm ESPN 2) Big conference game with two of the heavyweight coaches in Richt and Spurrier. QB Mitchell should be back for the Gamecocks after being suspended for the opener. South Carolina has now lost five straight to the Bulldogs, but this is the best team that Spurrier has had to end this losing streak. Talent edge, motivation, plus getting points in what should be a low scoring affair, spells trouble. Gamecocks finally take this game by a field goal. South Carolina 20, Georgia 17.

5 Unit Play. #49 Take California -14 over Colorado State (Saturday 2:00 pm CSTV) Normally would not rate a game this high, since the favorite is playing on the road; however, the Bears are loaded with talent and have one of the top college coaches in the country. A college coach told me this week that this Bear team has as much speed as any team he has seen in the past ten years. What really caught my eye was their win over Tennessee was the balance. Cal rushed 37 times for 230 yards and completed 19 passes for 241 yards against a good Volunteer team. As I looked at this game, my first impression was letdown after such an emotional victory, but the letdown will occur by the Rams. CSU lost a tough game last weekend to Colorado and will not be able to bounce back in this affair. 14 points is tough to lay on the road, but have not doubts about this game, as California explodes against a weak club. Cal 42, Colorado St 14.

3 Unit Play. #59 Take South Florida +7 over Auburn (Saturday 9:00 pm ESPN 2) The Bulls toyed with Elon last week, but look for them to pull out all the stops this week. This team has scheduled difficult games the last couple of years and is accustomed to playing the big boys in hostile environments. The Bulls offensive line was injured and a couple were held out in the opener but most will be back for this contest. Last year’s 9-4 record was no fluke; they have the talent to play against anyone in the country. As I look at Auburn, not the team of the past couple of years. They have a questionable running attack, gaining only 62 yards in 37 carries last week. The defense is solid but will have to carry this team all season. There is no talent gap between the programs and will call the upset here. South Florida 21, Auburn 17.

4 Unit Play. #64 Take East Carolina -5 over North Carolina (Saturday 6:00 pm CSTV) The Pirates always get up for this in-state game, see no let up here. Coach Holtz has a good nucleus of players returning and put a good showing in a narrow loss to Virginia Tech. The Pirates held the Hokies ground game in check, as they could only muster 33 yards. The stats alone could spell trouble for North Carolina, as they managed only 14 first downs against James Madison. Coach Butch Davis may get the Tar Heels program turned around, but help has not arrived yet. The talent gap is bigger then the posted line and there is never a problem with a mid-major program getting up for facing a BCS team, especially when both teams lie in the same state. Homer gets the call. East Carolina 27, North Carolina 14.

6 Unit Play. #65 Take Troy +26 ½ over Florida (Saturday 6 pm ESPN Gameplan) Underdog Game of the Year. Spotted this one several weeks ago. Certainly respect Florida and Coach Meyer; however, this team has lost heavy to graduation and will show in the early going. Defense may be the real question mark on this team with only two starters back. The Trojans did have difficulty with Arkansas stopping the run; however, McFadden will not be lining up in the backfield against them. QB Haugabook is in his second year as a starter and he is able to run a wide open offense that utilizes his legs and his arm. The Trojans always get up to play SEC teams and as a 29-point underdog, they almost beat Florida State last year (lost 24-17). With Tennessee up next, young Gators take this one lightly and vision of Appalachian State/Michigan come to mind. A nail bitter for the Gators and an easy cash for us. Florida 28, Troy 21.

4 Unit Play. #104 Take UNLV +25 over Wisconsin (Saturday 10:00 pm Versus) Saw the Badgers play Washington State last week and was impressed, but not so impressed to give them the call here. Will make this statement and will be right, “Wisconsin is not the number 5 team in the country.” The passing attack looked good, but did not have to worry about the Cougar running attack and this is a team that can be run on. Can the Badgers be upset? Little chance of that, but feel line is much too steep and inflated since Bucky fans will be packing the sportsbooks in Vegas. Injuries hit the Rebels hard last year and much of their personnel is back this season. Nice win last week on the road in Logan (Utah State) and that will give them confidence for this home opener. The Rebels are much strong then in 2006 and the 95 degree heat will make it tough on Bucky, no lights out here, Badgers win, but no blowout. Wisconsin 35, UNLV 17.

4 Unit Play. #106 Take Washington State -14 over San Diego State (Saturday 7:00 pm) A big day in the state of Washington, when the Cougars and Huskies will both be playing games in Seattle. I was able to watch the Cougars in person last week against Wisconsin and their secondary looked overmatched, but the offense moved the ball and they appear to have a nice ball club. QB Brink should be able to exploit a young Aztec defense. In 2006, Washington State opened the season in Auburn and lost 40-14, yet rebounded the next week by beating Idaho 56-10. Defense steps up and Brink has a big day. Washington State 42, San Diego State 17.

Phil Steel's Private Play Hotline

Big 12 Play Of The Week - Oklahoma St

Greg Roberts

Roast of the Week (0-1) Hawaii 61-20 over LA TECH

Barking Dog (0-1) Kent St over KENTUCKY by 1

Totals Play (1-0) TEX / TCU under

PPP


5% NORTHWESTERN (-9.5) over Nevada

Nevada got Steamrolled 52-10 by Nebraska LW allowing 625 TY and 413 RY on 5.9 YPR. Their “pistol” offense had no pop as they are breaking in a new QB and have just 5 returning offensive starters. Northwestern recorded a rare shutout, 27-0 vs. Northeastern holding the Huskies to just 260 TY. 8 returning starters to each side of the ball with veteran leadership from QB Bacher figures to have great success against a Wolfpack team who plays much better in their home den. Wildcat’s RB Sutton goes wild as the Wildcats STEAMROLL the Wolfpack.



3% KANSAS ST (-16.5) over San Jose

The Spartans were Steamrolled at my command LW as they were drubbed 45-3 at Arizona St. The Sundevils put up a balanced 520 TY including 250 RY while controlling the clock 37-23 against the Spartans. The Spartans, LY’s spread darlings, were able to total just 115 TY. Meanwhile, the reborn Wildcats were experiencing a hard fought opening day loss, but cover at Auburn. They actually led in the 4th Q before letting the game slip away. With 15 returning starters, including their QB and the majority of their OL, expect the Wildcats to be an early season play on. They have a history of early season excellence in Manhattan where they have won 17 straight openers, are on a 10-3 ATS run including 3-0 ATS LY under then first year HC Prince, winning by an average of 33-6. Wildcat QB Freeman will lead a balanced Wildcat attack that will enjoy stepping down in class against the outmanned Spartan defense.



3% IOWA (-21.5) over Syracuse

It’s addition by subtraction as the Hawkeyes will return to prosperity without prima donna QB Tate in their lineup. LW they return to the MO that had made them so successful in previous years. They dominated a solid Northern Illinois team as they controlled the point of attack out rushing the Huskies 250-21. With a game of experience under his belt and returning home where the Hawkeyes stand 19-8 ATS HF, expect a more confident, explosive performance. A solid running game will thrive against a Syracuse team that was out rushed 302-8 in a home opening loss to Washington, 42-12. Expect even less success as they travel to one of the most underrated venues in CFB. Adding fuel to our fire is the line value we get, not only from the Hawkeyes poor 2-10 ATS performance LY but also the fact they were challenged by the Orangemen in the Carrier Dome LY. Today, the Hawkeyes put them away in the first half and continue to STEAMROLL them until games end

Ben Burns

CFB

9/8 Marshall

9/8 Wake Forest

9/8 Lousiana Tech WAC Conference GOY

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CFB (2-0 start in CFB '07 / both outright winners!)-Saturday

My Oddsmaker's Error is on Va Tech at 9:15 ET. Here's a little "back story." The Las Vegas Hilton posted upcoming CFB games (prominent ones) in the late summer. LSU, as the No. 2 team in the nation would be hosting No. 9 Va. Tech on September, 8. What was the number? LSU minus-seven. It pretty much stayed that way all August. Now let's fast-forward. LSU got its season underway on August 30 at Miss St and beat the Bulldogs 45,0. Meanwhile, Va Tech opened on Sept 1 at home, vs East Carolina. With a ceremony honoring America's worst on-campus shooting in its history prior to the game, there just may have been too many distractions and too much emotion for the Hokies. They played an uninspired game and won, 17-7. Now, they find themselves nearly a two-TD underdog in Baton Rouge. This isn't really an error but rather an "adjustment to public opinion," which gives us great value. The Miss St team LSU beat wouldn't likely beat Appalachian St, three out of 10 tries. The LSU defense forced seven turnovers (six INTs) but the LSU offense was hardly impressive. The Tigers don't own a "big-time' RB (Hester's the best), as seven backs accounted for 198 rushing (just 4.0 YPC). Senior QB Matt Flynn (12-of-19 for 128 yards), attempted almost as many passes in this game, as he did all of LY, (20), backing up JaMarcus Russell (Flynn's just 43-of-78 in three years!). For the game, LSU averaged less than five yards per play (4., a rather poor effort. I'm throwing out Va Tech's game LW. Brandon Ore (1,137 YR in '06 for 4.7 YPC and 16 TDs) is an excellent RB and QB Glennon, while no star, went 22-of-33 for 245 yards. Va Tech"s defense was its usual self, one which led the nation in both total 'D' and scoring 'D' in '06! Then of course there are Beamer's well-known special teams! Tech's won 14 straight road openers (although just two came vs ranked opponents) and is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five tries as an underdog. The seven-point line was too high. This higher line gives us lots of "wiggle room!" Oddsmaker's Error on Va Tech

Larry Ness' CFB Superstar Triple Play (3 blockbuster 15*s on ONE report!)-It's Back!
With the pain and humiliation of arguably the greatest upset loss in college football history still lingering, Michigan can't lick its wounds for long as it get right back to action in Saturday's non- conference bout with the visiting Oregon Ducks. The Wolverines opened the '07 season as the fifth-ranked team in the country and the odds-on favorite to win the Big Ten and challenge for the national title. Unfortunately, the good feelings surrounding the team ended in shocking fashion as the Wolverines were beaten at home by Appalachian State, the two-time defending Div I-AA national champions. The loss was the Wolverines' third in a row dating back to last season (have allowed 108 points!), snapped a seven-game home winning streak, was just the 14th in 106 home openers all-time and caused the team to tumble out of the Top-25 in the largest fall in the history of the AP poll. That's all "old news!" I'm not going to break down this game (like I typically do) but rather I'm just betting on a HUGE bounce-back effort from the Wolverines. I realize that Oregon's spread offense has the talent to give Michigan's defense fits but the Wolverines do have some pride! In QB Henne, RB Hart and WR Manningham, Michigan has as good an offensive trio as there is in the nation! Oregon ranked in the bottom half of the national rankings in terms of rush defense a year ago and it appears as if more of the same is in store for the Ducks in '07, as Houston exploited Oregon's run defense, shredding the Ducks for 315 yards on the ground, 205 of which were logged by tailback Anthony Aldridge. Defending the pass didn't result in anything more favorable, as the Cougars finished with 230 yards. Oregon won 48-27 with the help of four turnovers and a good performance by the offense against the defensively-challenged Cougars. Things will 'different' this Saturday, in "the Big House!" 15* Michigan.

larry ness
For the second time in as many games, BYU gets a crack at a member of the Pac-10. However, this week it's on the road at 13th-ranked UCLA, rather than at home vs Arizona (Wildcats are NOT the Bruins!). The Cougars extended the nation's second longest winning streak to 11 games by defeating Arizona, 20-7. As for the Bruins, they began their Pac-10 Conference schedule with a 45-17 thumping of Stanford on the road last week. BYU has a new QB in Max Hall, who converted 26-of-39 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns in his first action at the collegiate level. However, he'll find this Bruin defense, the one that shut down USC in last year's regular-season finale, a tough nut to crack. Meanwhile, the BYU defense will not be able to slow UCLA's "new look" offense (under first-year OC Jay Norvell), which ran up 624 yards and 45 points on the road last Saturday. Former BYU recruit Ben Olson, who transferred to Westwood after his LDS mission, opened with a career-high five TD passes last week vs Stanford. Also, RB Kahlil Bell added a career-high of 195 yards on 19 carries! UCLA is 11-2 ATS in home openers and 5-0-1 ATS vs the MWC after taking care of Utah 31-10 at this site in '06. Meanwhile, BYU has struggled in road openers the last two decades (just 4-15) and is also just 6-12-1 away from Provo in non-conference games. 15* UCLA.


Both CMU and Toledo got blasted last week. However,at least CMU's "butt-kicking" came on the road (lost 52-7 at Kansas). Toledo lost at home in the Glass Bowl to Purdue, 52-24. Once upon a time, Toledo was a place no one wanted to visit. Case in point is that CMU won at Toledo last year 42-20, the Rockets' worst conference home loss since 1993! CMU went on to go 10-4 last year, beating Ohio (31-10) in the MAC title game and then Middle Tenn St (31-14), in the Motor City Bowl. Note that MTSU 'hung' 42 points on Louisville Thursday night!. Meanwhile, after going 55-19 to open the decade, Toledo slumped to 5-7 in '06. CMU returns 14 starters, including QB Dan LeFevour, who finished last year strong (63.7%, 3,031 yards with a 26-10 ratio). LeFevour threw for just 172 yards and one score (on 19-of-37 passing) at Kansas but that was on the road, in Big 12 country. Here he's home, where CMU went 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in 2006! Despite being at home, neither Toledo QB, Aaron Opelt or Clint Cochran, played well. Opelt completed only 10-of-27 passes for 69 yards and one INT, with Cochran throwing for 83 yards and interception. Toledo struggled in most areas, converting just 5-of-19 third down chances and 2-of-3 red zone opportunities. The Toledo defense allowed Purdue to average 7.1 YPC and CMU's Ontario Sneed should be able to open things up with the running game,for LeFevour. CMU is 6-0-1 ATS its last seven home games vs MAC foes, plus 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS in its last 13 MAC openers! After losing 10 in a row vs Toledo, CMU makes it three straight wins over the Rockets. 15* Central Michigan.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* Non-Conference GOY (Cal win last Saturday ups 20* FB mark to 5-0 in '07!)-Saturday

My 20* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET. This is the 82nd meeting between these two schools but the first since 1995, when both were members of the Southwest Conference (remember James Street to Cotton Spreyer?). TCU opened the '07 season with a 27-0 whitewash of another former SWC rival (Baylor) last week, giving the Horned Frogs a nine-game winning streak (4th-longest). Meanwhile, the Longhorns struggled in their home opener, beating Arkansas St just 21-13, as 39-point favorites! That's the 'KEY' right there. Any chance TCU had in this game, was lost (I believe) with last Saturday's results. TCU has maintained a high level of play since being ignored by the Big 12 but with all due respect, the Horned Frogs are NOT the Longhorns. RB Aaron Brown (the MWC's preseason Offensive POY) hurt his knee against Baylor and is listed as questionable. Freshman QB Andy Dalton (18-of-30 for 205 yards LW) will be making his first-ever road start here in Austin. That's quite a challenge. Meanwhile, the 'Horns got a "wake-up call" last week and it wasn't as 'expensive,' as Michigan's was! The TCU defense allowed only 51 rushing yards (25 attempts) against Baylor (21 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher) but Texas RB Charles has averaged 6.2 YPC the L/2 seasons (both over 800 yards). More importantly, Texas QB Colt McCoy (68.2% with a 29-7 ratio in '06) should 'love' a TCU pass D that allowed 231 YP to Baylor (TCU did have 4 INTs). McCoy has quality WRs in Sweed and Jones (9-72 LW) and is now 11-3 as a starter. Texas has won 13 of its last 14 home games when facing a ranked opponent (TCU is 19th) and owns 14 straight wins in Austin over TCU. TCU went into Norman and upset Oklahoma just two years ago, so if LW's sloppy effort vs Ark St wasn't motivation enough, TCU's win in Norman in '05, will have Mack Brown's attention. Non-Conference GOY 20* Texas.

Dr. Bob - Strong Opinions

EASTERN MICH 24 Ball St. (-5.0) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Ball State went into last week overrated and they’re still overrated despite losing 13- 14 to Miami-Ohio as a 5 point home favorite. The Cardinals do have a good offense, although you wouldn’t know it based on last week’s 4.8 yards per play and 13 points, but Eastern Michigan is a much improved defensive team that held Pittsburgh to just 5.2 yppl in last week’s 3-27 loss. The Eagles surrendered 5.7 yppl last season (to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team), but that unit is considerably better this season and I rate them slightly better than Ball State’s offense. Ball State’s defense is also likely to be better after allowing 6.4 yppl last season (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and they certainly looked good last week against Miami-Ohio (4.9 yppl allowed), but I’ll need more than one game worth of evidence to proclaim the Cardinals as being decent on defense. Eastern Michigan struggled last week offensively, as expected, and their offense is one of the worst in the nation, but they aren’t much worse than Ball State’s defense. Overall, my ratings pick this game even and Eastern Michigan applies to a decent 50-23 ATS early season indicator. I’ll consider Eastern Michigan a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.

Strong Opinion
PENN ST. (-17.5) 34 Notre Dame 10
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Notre Dame is not as bad as they looked in their 3-33 home loss to Georgia Tech, but I rated the Irish just 2.6 points better than an average Division 1A team entering that game and they certainly aren’t better than that. Coach Charlie Weis is turning to true freshman Jimmy Clausen at quarterback this week after his experiment running a spread offense with Demetrius Jones backfired. The fact that Weis would be desperate enough to go away from the pro style attack that worked so well his first two years here tells you that he has no confidence in his quarterbacks to run the pro system. Georgia Tech overwhelmed the Notre Dame line with blitzes while showing no fear of getting beaten by a downfield pass and Irish quarterbacks were sacked 9 times. Penn State’s defense is just as good as Georgia Tech’s defense and the Nittany Lions actually registered a few more sacks than the Yellow Jackets last season while opening with 7 sacks in their opener against Florida International. Clausen will not have a good ground attack to make it easier on him, as the Irish averaged only 1.9 yards per rushing play last week. Last week’s pathetic ground game underscores just how good former top back Darius Walker was. Walker averaged 4.7 ypr in 2005 and 5.0 ypr last season for Notre Dame while the other backs on the roster combined to average just 3.9 ypr those two seasons. I had figured that the running attack would struggle without Walker and it could be worse than I thought. Clausen saw some action last week and completed 4 of 6 passes for 34 yards, but he was also sacked twice for 14 yards and only averaged 2.5 yards per pass play. I still think Notre Dame will have an average pass attack this season with a poor rushing attack, but that’s not good enough against a Penn State defense that I rate at 1.2 yards per play better than average. The Nittany Lions had a great defense last season too, but their offense held them back. That should not be the case this year, as quarterback Anthony Morelli is reportedly much more comfortable throwing the ball downfield this season and he averaged 7.0 yards per pass play last week against a better than average Florida International pass defense. Penn State’s rushing attack is about average and I rate Penn State’s attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. Notre Dame is about average defensively again this season, so the Nittany Lions should move the ball at an above average clip while taking advantage of the good field position that their defense is likely to give them. The pointspread may look high, but my ratings would have favored Penn State by 16 points prior to last week’s games, so the line is at least fair this week (my updated ratings favor the Lions by 18 points). While there really isn’t much line value, Penn State is still worth playing based on a very good 58-18-1 ATS subset of a 127-54-3 ATS home favorite momentum situation. The Nittany Lions will certainly be motivated given their 17-41 loss at Notre Dame last season (a misleading score given Penn State was only out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.5 yppl) and I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.

Strong Opinion
North Carolina 21 EAST CAROLINA (-5.0) 20
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Both of these teams played well last week, as East Carolina was only out-gained 3.9 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their 7-17 loss at highly ranked Virginia Tech. North Carolina, meanwhile, out-gained James Madison 6.3 yppl to 3.9 yppl in a 37-14 victory. Beating James Madison may not seem that impressive to most of you, but my math model would have favored James Madison in that game had it been played at the end of last season and the Dukes were only about 1 point worse than an average Division 1A team and aren’t that much worse than that this season. North Carolina is an improved team under Butch Davis and the defense was particularly impressive last week. James Madison averaged 6.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A or AA teams last season and those numbers translate into being 0.3 yppl better than an average D1A attack – so the Tarheels yielding just 3.9 yppl to that unit is impressive. My ratings favor East Carolina by 5 ½ points in this game, but North Carolina applies to a 42-9 ATS game 2 angle and I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take UNC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI 25 Missouri (-6.0) 24
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Missouri was fortunate to beat Illinois last week, as the Tigers were out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yppl, and they may not get past Mississippi this week. Missouri is only 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite under coach Gary Pinkel and the Tigers apply to a negative 60-138-1 ATS indicator this week as well as a negative 30-80-3 ATS week 2 situation. Mississippi played about as well as I expected in beating Memphis last week and the Rebels are just an average team on a national scale, but they covered 5 of their last 6 as a dog last season, losing to Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU by a combined 17 points (2 in OT) – so they are certainly capable of hanging tough with Missouri. Ole’ Miss is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog under coach Orgeron and they are in a good situation for an upset win today. My ratings favor Missouri by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll consider Ole’ Miss a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
BAYLOR (-6.5) 30 Rice 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Rice was the worst team that made a bowl game last year and they proved that by losing 17-41 to lowly Troy State in the New Orleans Bowl. The Owls were decent offensively when Chase Clement was behind center, but their defense was one of the worst in Division 1A, allowing 6.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. Rice has their 3rd head coach in 3 years, but the David Bailiff era started with a 14-16 home loss to Division 1AA Nicholls State. The Rice spread offense looked horrible, as the graduation of star running back Quinton Smith (1096 yards at 5.2 ypr last year) left a huge void and Clement, who was actually 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average last season, completed just 11 of 28 passes for 101 yards and threw 3 interceptions (only threw 5 last season). Rice’s offense is well below average and Baylor looks like they have a pretty good defense this year after taking a step back last season. The Bears were very good defensively in 2005, rating at 0.4 yppl better than an average Division 1A team, but they returned just 4 starters to that unit last season and were 0.5 yppl worse than average. This year’s stop unit is more experienced (7 returning starters) and they held a good TCU attack to just 5.1 yppl in last week’s 0-27 loss. The offense performed about as I expected, averaging only 3.5 yppl against a vicious Horned Frogs’ defense (I expected 3.3 yppl), but the 4 interceptions thrown by quarterback Blake Szymanski were more than expected. Baylor’s offense is just as bad as Rice’s attack, but the Bears have a much better defense and my ratings favor Baylor by 9 points in this game. Rice applies to a negative 51-110-1 ATS early season road situation and I’ll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.

Strong Opinion
TCU 21 TEXAS (-9.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Neither of these teams played their best last week, but Texas coaches have to be concerned after being out played by Arkansas State last week. The Longhorns were out gained 5.0 yards per play to 5.6 yppl and were lucky to win that game 21-13 as a 39 point favorite. TCU managed to beat Baylor 27-0, but the Horned Frogs were sluggish on offense under redshirt freshman quarterback Andy Dalton, who averaged a sub-par 5.9 yards per pass play in his debut. The rushing attack wasn’t that good either (4.6 yards per rushing play) and star back Aaron Brown may miss this game after being injured early in last week’s contest. The Horned Frogs played great defense (3.5 yppl allowed) despite being without All-American DE Tommy Blake. Blake practiced earlier this week, but he’s questionable for this game. The Horned Frogs are nasty good on defense even without Blake, as they returned 7 other defensive starters to a team that yielded just 4.1 yppl last season (to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). I rate the Texas offense at 0.8 yppl better than average, so they are at a disadvantage against the TCU defense. The Longhorns’ defense is strong up front, but the secondary continues to be an issue after allowing 6.2 yards per pass play last season and 5.9 yppp last week to a pathetic Arkansas State pass attack. My ratings favor Texas by 9 points if Blake does not play for TCU and by 7 ½ points if he does play. The line is fair and TCU applies to a solid 49-17-2 ATS game 2 situation. The Frogs are also 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more under coach Gary Patterson and I like the idea of a great defensive team getting points. I don’t like the idea of a freshman quarterback playing his first road game in a tough environment, so I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more instead of making them a Best Bet.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. 13 Maryland (-23.5) 30
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Florida International was winless last season, but they lost 5 games by 5 points or less, including a 10-14 loss at Maryland as a 20 point dog. The Panthers weren’t a completely horrible team, as they allowed just 4.5 yards per play for the season (against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average defense) and they are pretty good defensively this season too (I rate them about average on a national scale, which is very good for a Sun Belt team). Ignore the final score of last week’s 0-59 loss to Penn State, as 5 lost fumbles had a lot do to with how many points the Nittany Lions scored. The defense allowed a respectable 6.2 yppl in that game and Florida International played exactly how I thought they’d play from a yards per play perspective (I projected them to be out-gained 2.2 yppl to 6.4 yppl and they were out- gained 2.0 yppl to 6.2 yppl). It’s not likely that FIU is going to fumble the ball away 5 times again this week and there is no reason to downgrade their rating given that they played just as I thought they’d play (aside from the turnovers). Maryland is just slightly better than an average Division 1A team and my ratings favor the Terrapins by only 17 points - so it looks like the score of last week’s Florida International game with Penn State has affected the line more than it should have. Maryland is just 4-12 ATS as a favorite since 2004 and I’ll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at +23 points or more in this game.

Strong Opinion
UNLV 14 Wisconsin (-25.0) 33
07:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Wisconsin’s players are probably thinking about the Las Vegas strip than they are about football this week, but UNLV has a young quarterback that could cause them some problems. Redshirt freshman Travis Dixon may not be a good passer quite yet (6.0 yards per pass play against a bad Utah State secondary), but he racked up 147 yards on 20 rushing plays to lead the Rebels to victory. Running quarterbacks are a great equalizer, as I’ve noticed over the years that scramblers run for similar yardage against good defensive teams as they do against bad defensive teams. The fact that Wisconsin has a good defense does not necessarily mean that they’ll be able to defend Dixon’s scrambles and Dixon is likely to scramble a lot given that there aren’t going to be that many open receivers against a good Badgers’ secondary. Wisconsin looked good against Washington State last week on the scoreboard (a 21 point win), but the stats (6.4 yards per play to 5.5 yppl for Washington State) were closer than the game. The match-up is pretty good for UNLV’s defense, as the Rebels have been pretty good defending the run in recent years (0.2 yprp better than average last season and they allowed just 3.7 yards per rushing play last week) and Wisconsin is happy to run the ball 40 or more times per game with their overrated rushing attack. The Badgers average only 4.6 yprp last year (against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and managed just 4.1 yprp last week. If Wisconsin gets up by a couple of scores then they’re likely to run the ball even more. This is a flat spot for Wisconsin and my ratings only favor the Badgers by 19 points. I’ll consider UNLV a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more.

Strong Opinion
COLORADO ST. 27 California (-14.0) 36
11:00 AM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Cal is in a huge letdown spot after last week’s satisfying revenge win over Tennessee in Berkeley. The Bears were as good as expected offensively, averaging 7.4 yards per play but Cal’s defense was spotty. The Bears only allowed 5.2 yppl, but it was obvious to me (I was at the game) that Tennessee quarterback Eric Ainge could not throw an accurate pass more than 10 yards down the field with his broken pinky finger. The Bears should have been even better defensively with that being the case. Colorado State’s offense is well balanced now that workhorse back Kyle Bell is back after missing last season and quarterback Caleb Hanie is a better than average quarterback. The Rams should do some business against a Cal defense that I rate at just 0.2 yppl better than average. The problem for Colorado State will be slowing down Cal’s offense. I rate CSU as average defensively, so Cal will get their points, but the Bears will probably have a tough time extending the margin given the negative situation that they are in. Not only do we have the obvious letdown after last week’s big win, but Cal applies to a negative 30-80-3 ATS first road game situation and a negative 93-166-10 ATS road favorite letdown situation. The Bears certainly are prone to letdowns as they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11 points or more, including 0-6 ATS more recently and 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 11 or more away from home. Unfortunately, my ratings favor California by 16 points and the line has dropped from 16 ½ down to 14 points and I’m not willing to give up that much line value to make the Rams a Best Bet. I’ll consider Colorado State a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more.

jlwmd2004 said:

Phil Steel's Private Play Hotline

Big 12 Play Of The Week - Oklahoma St

Click to expand...

Phil Steeles Power Plays

4* Nebraska
4* Oklahoma
4* Ohio St
4* Virginia
4* Alabama
4* Oregon
4* Washington
4* Texas A&M
4* Penn State
4* Arizona State
4* Maryland

Right Angle Sports (RAS)


Miami Ohio at Minnesota (Under 50) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #317-318

First year head coach Tim Brewster is attempting to transform the Gopher offense from a ground oriented attack into a combination spread/west coast style offense. After getting shutout in the first half of the season opener vs Bowling Green, Brewster changed his strategy and kept the ball on the ground 34 of 45 plays after halftime saying afterwards "We're going to be a physical, running football team." Only 48 points were scored in regulation despite facing a defensively challenged Bowling Green team that likes to line up with five wideouts and throw the ball around. That type of attack was a bad matchup for Minnesota's suspect secondary, but this week Minnesota's strong front seven will be on display against a team who's offensive strength is running the football, not passing it. Gopher starting QB Adam Weber, a redshirt freshman, finished just 15 of 31 with 2 interceptions in an unimpressive debut and at one point in the first half was close to getting replaced. Earlier this week, head coach Brewster announced some reshuffling on an unsettled offensive line which may further hinder the offense's progress. Miami Ohio scored a touchdown with 17 seconds left to beat Ball State 14-13 in a low scoring affair last week. Redhawk starting QB Mike Kokal completed 14 of 24 passes for just 118 yards and threw 2 interceptions. Kokal seldom threw downfield in the game with his longest pass going to RB Brandon Murphy for 17 yards. This versus a Ball State team not known for strong defense. The return of a healthy Murphy was the bright spot for Miami, as he rushed for 135 yards as the focal point of the offense. The Redhawks will also be shuffling their offensive line this week, as starting guard Matt McKeown left last game with injury and is listed as doubtful. Miami fans are high on their defense this year and they had a solid outing in their debut holding Ball State to just 13 points despite several three and outs by the offense and a -2 turnover ratio. They figure to do a much better job defending the Gophers ground game than smallish Bowling Green did last week. Expect this game to have a difficult time getting out of the 40's. Play the under.


RAS Official Play: Under 50 1 UNIT



UAB at Florida State (-34.5) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #351-352

Longtime FSU head coach Bobby Bowden said his team has never played as bad as they did in the first half vs Clemson last week. They did perform much better in the second half but could not overcome a 24-3 halftime deficit. The Seminoles cannot wait to get back on the field as they feel they have much to prove on both sides of the ball. New high profile offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is already under heat from fans but will look to showcase his new offense this week vs a horrible UAB defense in the team's home opener. Junior QB Drew Weatherford should also be inclined to pad his stats after a disappointing opener. Talented backup QB Xavier Lee, who was not far from winning the starting job, will likely join the party as well once the game is out of hand. Meanwhile, the vaunted Seminole defense, who shutout Clemson in the second half last week, has been quoted as saying they will not be satisfied with anything but a shutout this week. They are more than capable of accomplishing that goal with 8 returning starters and plenty of quality depth. UAB might just be the worst team in Division 1-A this year. Due to injuries and nearly 20 defections the Blazers are playing with just 67 scholarship players, 18 under the NCAA limit. As mentioned last week, first year players are riddled throughout their 2-deep (six freshmen started last week) and they are learning new systems on both offense and defense. Michigan State led UAB 45-3 at halftime and that was without the help of any fluke plays. They were just simply dominated. The Spartans began playing reserves midway through the second quarter and still coasted to a 55-18 win. The Blazers will get another nice paycheck for this trip but not much else. Florida State is 36-22 ATS after a straight up loss under Bowden. Look for the Seminoles to dominate throughout and win by 40+. Give the big number.


RAS Official Play: Florida State -34.5 1 UNIT



North Texas at SMU (Over 44.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #403-404

SMU has all the makings of an "over" team. Last year their games averaged 51.6ppg (no overtimes) despite playing a freshman QB. This year they have 8 returning starters on offense and a defense that is struggling to overcome key losses. SMU executed very poorly in opener vs Texas Tech with several dropped passes, penalties, and other miscues leading to just a 9 point output after averaging 31.6ppg in last 10 outings a year ago. Dual threat sophomore QB Justin Willis (C-USA freshman of year) will be looking to make amends against his hometown (Denton, TX) school who beat him 24-6 last year. SMU's defense suffered a major blow when starting MLB and leading returning tackler Reggie Carrington opted to leave the team before the season. The defensive line only returned one starter, senior Cory Muse, (played a handful of plays last week, probable Saturday) but he has been slowed by injury. Starting DT Charlie Berry (stinger) is doubtful to play this week. SMU only returned six starters on defense to begin with and have never been anything special. SMU kick returner Jesse Henderson averaged 32 yards a return last week and will be a positive factor in their scoring output. North Texas first year coach Todd Dodge is implementing a mostly no-huddle spread offense with four wide receivers and a dual threat quarterback. The system figures to extend games and give both teams more plays. In opener vs Oklahoma there were 142 total plays (79 in first half) despite the Sooners running 61% of the time and only throwing three incomplete passes. UNT meanwhile passed on 45 of their 69 plays. The Mean Green's offense was not very effective against OU's stellar defense, but they did show signs of potential and should be more productive against a softer opponent. UNT's defense has experience, but is switching to a new 4-3 scheme for a new defensive coordinator, and were absolutely shredded by Oklahoma in the season opener. The secondary looked particularly vulnerable as they did not break up a single pass in opener. Junior CB Dominique Green, a 10 game starter last year, has disappeared from the depth chart, and Dodge announced more personnel shuffling in the secondary for Saturday. Expect a high scoring affair.

RAS Official Play: Over 44.5 1 UNIT

jlwmd2004 said:

Ben Burns

CFB

9/8 Marshall

9/8 Wake Forest

9/8 Lousiana Tech WAC Conference GOY

Click to expand...

ADD

Ben Burns

UNLV

Auburn

W. Mich
<table style="table-layout: fixed;" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="smalltext" width="100%">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

Ace-Ace / Alan Eastman +14.15 units ncaa fb

4 NORTHWESTERN -10
3 PENN ST -17
2 LSU -12 1/2
3 MICH -8 1/2
2 HAWAII -28

Kelso Sturgeon

BEST BETS

10 units Miami Fla +10.5
10 units Penn St -17.5
10 units VaTech +11

GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
Miami-OH
UCLA
S. Florida
Ok. State


XTRA
UVA
NCST
OLE Miss
VTech


CKO
11 Kansas St
10 PSU
10 S. Carolina
10-Ark State

Pointwise

4 S Car
4 Okla
3 Ariz St
3 North West
3 Vanderbilt
3 Penn St
3 S Fla
3 Air Force
3 Texas
2 Miss St
2 Vt

LT Profits

Comps :


Miami Ohio +8.5 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 12:00p

Miami Ohio +8.5 at Minnesota

While all the focus was on Appalachian State’s upset of Michigan after last weekend, do not forget that another Big Ten team, these Minnesota Gophers, lost outright at home in overtime to Bowling Green, out of the MAC.

Minnesota has had defensive issued for several years now, but they were simply awful last week while surrendering 512 total yards in the 32-31 defeat. They now get to host their second MAC team in as many weeks in the Miami Ohio Redhawks, and we are not of the belief that the Gophers will simply rebound from that embarrassment last week with an authoritative win here. After all, the struggles of the defense were not a fluke, and we feel that Minnesota will have trouble stopping teams all year, so we are not at all comfortable laying this many points with a team like this.

On the flip side, the Redhawks allowed just 13 points on the road at Ball State in their opener, enabling them to come back late for the 14-13 upset victory. Like Bowling Green, Miami should be motivated by the chance to knock off a high-profile Big Ten school on the road, and the fact that Minnesota can make any offense look like a powerhouse is certainly encouraging.

We look for the MAC to get yet another boost here, as we expect Miami Ohio to at the very least take this game right down to the wire, if not pull off yet another outright upset.

CFB Free Pick: Miami Ohio +8.5


South Florida @ Auburn u38.5 (-110)
Sat Sep 8 '07 9:00p

South Florida, Auburn Under 38.5

Both the Auburn Tigers and South Florida Bulls looked good defensively in their respective openers, and we look for those defenses to key the Under here.

Now granted, South Florida opened with mighty Elon, while Auburn had a more legitimate test, facing Kansas State. Still, USF has high hopes on the defensive side this season after allowing just 16.9 points per game last year, keying a sparkling 9-2-1 Under mark. At the very least, they had a decent tune-up for this week.

There is concern with the Bulls offense however, as they have to be disappointed with the 28-13 score vs. a subdivision school. They ended up with 19 first downs and 373 total yards, which is not terrible, but their expected much better. Now they are facing one of the premier defenses in the country, and given their performance last week, the Bulls should have a lot of trouble moving the ball this week.

The Auburn defense was the only reason the Tigers were able to beat Kansas State, as they broke open a three-point game late by returning a fumble for a touchdown. The offense was unspectacular to say the least, generating just one touchdown and 291 total yards, and they had just 62 rushing yards on 37 attempts. Thus we look for these clubs to mirror each other this week, with both offenses playing rather conservatively while waiting for their respective defenses to make the big play.

These teams rarely show much when playing out of conference anyway, as the Under is 9-1 in the last 10 South Florida non-conference games, as well as 10-4 in Auburn’s last 14 non-conference contests. Based on the performances last week, there is no reason to believe this week will be any different.

CFB Free Pick: South Florida, Auburn Under 38.5

Carlo Campanella

Game: Colorado at Arizona St. Sep 8 2007 10:15PM

Prediction: Arizona St.

Reason: Arizona State drilled San Jose State, 45-3, in their opener and stay at home as they host Colorado this Saturday. While Colorado also opened their season by defeating inner-state rival, Colorado State by 3 points, they find themselves in some of their least favorite roles this weekend. Not only are the Buffaloes just 2-5 ATS during their last seven in the dog role, we also find them at just 1-2 ATS when playing with revenge. Doubt they'll turn those numbers around on the road against an ASU team that easily defeated them 21-3 in Colorado last year, especially knowing that Colorado has only covered the spread in 4 of their last 30 SU losses!

Play On Arizona State

JEFF ALEXANDER

NCAAF Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Take Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State -17 When the books have Notre Dame as 17-point dogs, you know they’ve got to be bad. The Irish will not easily bounce back from it’s worst season opening loss in the program’s history as they must travel to Happy Valley in week 2 to take on the mighty Nittany Lions. Penn State’s 59-0 win in their first contest of the season lets us know that this team means business in 2007. Notre Dame is just 2-9 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Penn State will gladly take the opportunity to embarrass the Irish this week. Lay the points.