service plays 9/9/07

Dr Bob

2 Star Selection
**JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) 27 Tennessee 13

10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Jacksonville was a much better team last season than their 8-8 record would indicate, as the Jags averaged 5.6 yards per play and allowed just 4.7 yppl while out-scoring their opponents by an average of 23.2 to 17.1. Jacksonville was 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or less and more of those close games are destined to go their way this season and I’m expecting 10 or 11 wins from the Jags. Jaguars’ coach Jack Del Rio has chosen David Garrard to be the starting quarterback, which seems like a good decision given that Garrard has performed better than Bryon Leftwich over the last couple of seasons. Garrard stepped in for an injured Leftwich last season in week 8 and the Jaguars offense averaged 6.0 yards per play in their final 10 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Garrard has been about average as a passer in his career (6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but his running ability is a plus and the team seems to rally around Garrard more than they did for Leftwich. The rushing attack is what carried the Jaguars’ offense last season as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 2087 yards at 5.3 ypr. I don’t expect those two to run for that high of an average again this season, but the rushing attack will still be among the NFL’s best and I rate the offense at 0.2 yppl better than average overall. Jacksonville is a good team because of their defense, which yielded just 4.7 yppl last season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Jacksonville should be a bit better than that this season, as the run defense was 0.4 ypr better in the 11 games with DT Marcus Stroud available to play than they were in the 5 games he missed. Stroud teams with John Henderson to give the Jaguars the league’s best set of run-stuffing defensive tackles (although Minnesota’s pair of Williams were damn good last year) and the defensive backfield is also good, allowing just 5.5 yppp last season to teams that would average a combined 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the league and I’m playing them Over 9 wins.
Tennessee was a good story last year, going 8-5 with Vince Young as the starting quarterback after an 0-3 start. Don’t be fooled by that record, as the Titans were not a better than average team with Young at quarterback. Tennessee was 8-1 in games decided by 7 points or less with Young at quarterback and that sort of good fortune is not likely to repeat itself. Tennessee was slightly better than average offensively last season with Young starting (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), but the defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average and the special teams were good. Overall, the Titans were an average team with Young at quarterback but that will not be the case this season after losing starting running back Travis Henry (1211 yards at 4.5 ypr), their top two wideouts in Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade and Pac- Man Jones. Young will have one of the league’s worst receiving corps and the rushing attack will not be nearly as good without Henry. The Titans did get a good replacement for Jones in the secondary when they picked up former Colts’ CB Nick Harper, but Jones was also a weapon as a punt returner and his contributions on special teams will be missed. Overall, I rate the Titans 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average on defense with better than average special teams. Tennessee is in a tough division so it looks like 6 or 7 wins tops for the Titans this year.
My ratings favor Jacksonville by 11 points and the Jaguars apply to a very good 30-11 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll take Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion



NY JETS 20 New England (-6.5) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 09-Sep-07

The Patriots had an off year offensively in 2006, averaging just 5.2 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but adding receivers Donte Stallworth, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker will provide a major upgrade for Tom Brady to throw to and I expect Brady to return to the high yards per pass play numbers he had registered in 2004 and 2005. The rushing attack looks like it will be solid with Laurence Maroney taking over full-time duties and running behind a very good offensive line and I rate the Patriots’ attack at 0.6 yppl better than average this season with potential to be even better if Randy Moss comes close to his old Minnesota Vikings form. The Pats’ defense was solid last season, rating at 0.2 ypr and 0.3 yppp better than average, but they should be even better with the addition of LB Adalius Thomas. New England is also among the best in the league on special teams and I rate the Patriots as one of my top 3 teams going into 2007.
New York was an average team last season and they were lucky to finish 10-6 and to make the playoffs. The Jets were 0.2 yards per play worse than average on offense (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive unit) and 1 point better than average on special teams. The Jets should be better offensively, as the addition of RB Thomas Jones from Chicago (1210 yards at 4.1 ypr) gives them a decent rushing attack after averaging just 3.7 ypr in 2006 and quarterback Chad Pennington should have another better than average season. Pennington averaged 6.2 yards per pass play last season against teams that would allow just 5.8 yppp to an average QB and that was right in line with his career rating of +0.4 yppp. While New York will probably be slightly better than average this season on offense it appears as if their defense will be slightly worse than average until they can prove that they can stop the run (allowed 4.7 ypr last season to teams that would average 4.2 ypr against an average team). The Jets are likely going to be a better team overall this season but it’s doubtful that they’ll reach 10 wins and the playoffs given their tough schedule and mediocre talent.
My ratings only favor New England by 3 ½ points in this game, so it appears as if the Patriots were a bit over-hyped in the off-season. The Patriots also apply to a negative 11-25-1 ATS game 1 indicator that plays against road teams that were 12-4 or better the previous season. I’ll consider New York a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.



Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 20 SEATTLE (-6.0) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07

The addition of Jeff Garcia to play quarterback will ensure that the Buccaneers will rebound from last year’s 4-12 record. Garcia is not going to put up the numbers he did in Philadelphia last season (6.5 yards per pass play), as the Eagles had better receivers than the Bucs do this year, but he should be around the 5.9 yppp average that he’s produced over the last 3 years with Cleveland, Detroit, and Philly. A decent pass attack will be a huge improvement over last year, when Tampa had to rely on rookie Bruce Gradkowski and the Bucs finished the season averaging an NFC low 5.0 yppp. Tampa’s rushing attack suffered as teams stacked the line with little fear of the pass, but the Buccaneers should be closer to average running the ball this season after rating at 0.4 ypr worse than average in 2006. Overall, I peg Tampa Bay to be 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively after being 0.7 yppl worse than average last season. Tampa’s defense is getting older, but the Bucs should still be a mediocre unit after finishing a bit better than average defensively last season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). Tampa Bay plays a pretty easy schedule this season and they look like an 7 to 9 win team to me.
Seattle was a bad team last season but made the playoffs anyway by playing a bad schedule of teams. The Seahawks were out-scored 20.9 to 21.3 points per game and they were out-gained 4.8 yard per play to 5.4 yppl and had worse than average special teams. The offense was hurt last year by a less talented offensive line and an injury to top back Shaun Alexander. Alexander averaged just 3.6 ypr and while he’s likely to top that number this season he won’t come close to his lifetime average of 4.4 ypr, which was helped by a great offensive line. Only left tackle Walter Jones is an above average linemen now that All-Pro C Robbie Tobeck has retired, so Alexander’s days of topping 4.0 ypr are likely over. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck had far less time to throw the ball last season and suffered too many sacks. The results was a horrible 5.5 yards per pass play. I expect the pass attack to rebound this season to an above average level, but not to the Pro Bowl level Hasselbeck was at a few years ago. The Seahawks’ defense also fell off sharply last season, as an injury to run-stuffing DT Marcel Tubbs greatly affected the run defense. Seattle allowed just 3.8 ypr in the 5 games Tubbs played in and 4.8 ypr in the 11 games in which Tubbs was out. The bad news is that Tubbs suffered another injury and will not play this season, leaving only untested rookie Brandon Mebane as a legitimate run stuffer. DE Patrick Kearny was added to help the pass rush and to CB Marcus Trufant should rebound from a bad year, so the pass defense should be better than average after struggling last season. The defense looks just average overall unless the Seahawks can find an adequate replacement for Tubbs. Seattle is a better team this season, but they’re just average overall and will struggle to get back to the playoffs. My ratings favor Seattle by just 4 points and Tampa Bay applies to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator, so I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more.


Strong Opinion
OAKLAND (-2.0) 23 Detroit 16

01:15 PM Pacific, 09-Sep-07
Lions fans are dreaming big this season thanks to a potential potent offense now loaded with good receivers after drafting WR Calvin Johnson with the #2 overall pick. Detroit should have a much better pass attack with Johnson joining Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, as the Lions lacked a good 3rd receiver last season. However, the offensive line is the league’s worst and quarterback Jon Kitna was sacked 63 times last season, so the line will have to get better before the Lions truly blossom offensively. Bringing running back Tatum Bell over from Denver isn’t going to add anything to the ground game since Bell’s 4.4 ypr was produced running behind Denver’s good offense line and he won’t have nearly that much success without holes to run through. Detroit was 0.1 yards per play worse than average last season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) despite throwing the ball nearly 70% of the time, but I rate the Lions’ attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. The offense will have to be even better than that to make up for a defense that was 0.4 yppl worse than average in 2006. That defense will get better against the run with DT Shaun Rogers back after he missed most of last season, but the pass defense will still be bad after losing their best cornerback Dre’ Bly to Denver in the trade for Bell. Detroit is still going to be worse than average defensively and worse than average overall this season, but they can greatly improve their 3-13 record if they can just win a few close games after gong 1-8 last season in games decided by 7 points or less.
I knew I would have the Raiders rated higher coming into this season than they were at the end of last season, but I’m surprised by how much the Silver and Black will be improved. Oakland had a very good defense last year, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), but their offense was so horrible that that defense was constantly put on the field with their backs against their own goal line. Raiders’ coach Art Shell made a HUGE mistake in hiring his old offensive coordinator from the 90’s despite his having been out of football for a decade. The results were horrendous, as the offense was constantly confused and had no belief in the plays that they were running – plays that simply didn’t work against modern defenses. Oakland has no good system for picking up blitzes and the Raiders’ quarterbacks were sacked a combined 72 times while Oakland averaged a pathetic 4.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while turning the ball over 46 times. The Raiders new head coach Lane Kiffen was smart enough to retain defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the defense should be just as good as it was last season with all 11 starters returning. The offense will be much better too in Kiffin’s sophisticated offense and offensive line coach Tom Cable is installing a zone blocking scheme that suits the personnel much better. The Raiders’ linemen haven’t lived up to their massive potential because they haven’t been coached up at all. That has changed this year and the Raiders only allowed 7 sacks in 4 games with the quarterbacks no longer taking 7 step drops. The run blocking has also looked better and the Raiders should be a bit closer to average running the ball than they were last year. Oakland’s pass attack will be the major beneficiary of the coaching changes, as both Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper have proven to be serviceable quarterbacks and the receiving corps is not really too bad at all with Ronald Curry posting an impressive 8.2 yards per pass thrown to him last season and Jerry Porter returning after spending last season in Shell’s doghouse. The Raiders have averaged 5.7 yppp in the pre-season with McCown and Culpepper combining to average a solid 6.4 yppp. I realize that some of those numbers came against second string defensive units, but McCown averaged 5.5 yards per pass play as a starter in 2004 and 2005 in Arizona and Culpepper has averaged 5.4 yppp in his last two seasons, so the Raiders should be somewhere in that neighborhood throwing the ball this year (which is still much worse than the league average of 6.1 yppp). If that is the case then I rate the Raiders at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively, which makes them a pretty decent team if their defense is once again at 0.4 yppl better than average. That’s actually not that far fetched considering that the Raiders were only 0.2 yppl worse than average two years ago with Kerry Collins at quarterback. If the offensive improvement is as much as I think it’s going to be then the Raiders could be looking at a 7-9 or 8-8 season this year.
My ratings favor the Raiders by 6 ½ points and the Raiders apply to an 89-56-3 ATS game 1 indicator. I’ll consider Oakland a Strong Opinion in this game at -3 points or less.



Strike Point Sports

Week One NFL Plays

5-Unit Co-Play of the Week. #407 Take Denver -3 over Buffalo (1 pm)

The Broncos will open up '07 in winning fashion, besting a Bills team that has slipped from last year. First of all the Buffalo defense is a lot worse after losing playmakers and leaders Nate Clements, London Fletcher-Baker and Takeo Spikes. And even if Marshawn Lynch is going to be a solid pro, he is a downgrade from the previously traded Willis McGahee. The Broncos, however, are known for their prominent running game and a tremendous defense. Look for a very efficient offensive attack with Jake Cutler and the ground game. Denver will then proceed to snipe a couple of passes out of the air from J.P. Losman and create favorable field position. This game goes to the likely playoff bound Broncos, so lay the small number here.


5-Unit Co-Play of the Week. #415 Take Philadelphia -3 over Green Bay (1 pm)

Another play that we are extremely high on, the Eagles come in with a healthy Donovan McNabb and that means issues for a sketchy Green Bay defense. Philly will put together a nice balance of passes to the likes of Reggie Brown and Hank Baskett, while Brian Westbrook combines to total nearly 150 total yards on offense. Just the same, the Eagles defense is one of the best in the NFC, and they'll create two or three turnovers off the hands of Brett Favre, who seems to force more and more as his team gets younger. Philadelphia is more sound in all facets of this match-up, and special teams will be another area where the road team controls throughout the game. Lay the small number, as the Eagles come through with a nice victory this afternoon.


4-Unit Play. #409 Take Pittsburgh -4.5 over Cleveland (1 pm)

With Charlie Frye under center, the Browns will be regulated to the same type of offensive struggles as they have seen the past couple of seasons. Frye is limited as an NFL quarterback, and that will be even more the case against a rejuvenated Steelers defense via head coach and defense guru Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh will also be improved offensively, with Big Ben having a full year of recovery and rest, while speedy Willie Parker tears up the ground game. Cleveland won't score more than 14-17 points, and that means an opening day cover for the road Steelers against their division rivals.


2-Unit Play. #414 Take St. Louis -1 over Carolina (1 pm)

One of our sleepers for the upcoming season, St. Louis brings one of the best offenses to the table, and that gives them a big edge against Carolina. Having a quarterback in Jake Delhomme that took a big step back last year and has been questioned coming into this season is going to be an issue all year with backup David Carr looming. Stephen Jackson will have a huge game on the ground, while Delhomme will against start the season in turnover fashion. The Rams have a strong front four on defense and they will pressure Carolina throughout the game. St. Louis also has a major egde with wide outs Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett. Labeled as a small home favorite, St. Louis comes through in the Show Me State.



2-Unit Play. #406 Take Houston -3 over Kansas City (1 pm)

The Texans will take a huge step, winning their opener and making it known they are going to make a push to climb out of the AFC South cellar and compete for a winning record this season. There has been some soft rumors about Larry Johnson and the amount of work he'll get in the opener after missing the entire preseason and camp. If he can't get more than 20 reps or so, that drastically hurts an already one-dimensional Kansas City offense. Houston gets a big upgrade with Matt Shaub under center, while Ahman Green in the backfield as well will help them too. The Texans are improved on defense will playmakers like Mario Williams, Dunta Robinson and DeMeco Ryans. At home they'll be playing behind a freshly excited fan base, and it will be the small favorite that wins and covers this one.


2-Unit Play. #427 Take Detroit +2 over Oakland (4:15 pm)

It's tough to imagine how the Raiders offense is going to match what an improved Detroit unit is going to put up in this game. Yes, Oakland has a very solid defense, but their offense puts their defense in bad situations and that is going to provide a short field fon seveal occasions for the Lions to strike with their multitude of weapons. Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Tatum Bell will all cash in and make a good outing for the Detroit faithful. If Oakland can't put across 20 points in this one, they aren't going to have a shot to win. They might do better, but we definitely see the Lions offense pushing across at least 24. Detroit should be favored, but in the end it won't matter as they come through victoriously.


2-Unit Play. #431 Take Baltimore +3 over Cincinnati (7 pm - MNF)

Gotta love the Ravens being favored in this spot. They may be on the road, but they are still the best defense in the league in our minds and they absolutely fly to the ball. Last season they were +3 on the road in Tampa Bay and all they did was win 27-0 in a defense beatdown. They aren't going to shutout the Bengals, but a victory is in sights and the Baltimore offense will come through as well. With Willis McGahee providing a big push in the ground game, Steve McNair can finally attack downfield with the likes of Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. This more balanced offense will allow the Ravens defense to not have to bail their offense out like in past seasons. The likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Chris McAllister and Tyrell Suggs will be all over the field to limit Cincy's playmakers. Look for a field goal decision, but the game winner coming off the leg of Baltimore's Matt Stover. The Ravens are the way to go on Monday night.



Docs Sports


4 Unit Play. #111 Take Philadelphia -3 over Green Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox)

Andy Reid makes his return to Green Bay, a place where he experienced great success under Mike Holmgren. He has owned the Packers of late, going 5-0 the last four years and outscoring them by 57 points in the latter three. The Eagles team is expected to repeat as NFC East Champions and has QB McNabb back in the saddle to open up the 2007 season. But the biggest edge lies at the running back position, as the Eagles can rely on Brian Westbrooke, whereas Green Bay does not have any running backs people have ever heard of. Philly won this game 31-9 in 2006 and I don’t see as lopsided in 2007 but I still see a comfortably win by the Eagles.


4 Unit Play. #122 Take Over 42.5 in Carolina @ St. Louis (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox)

Both of these teams are looking to get back into the playoffs after being absent in 2006 and both are loaded on the offensive side of the football. The Rams were sixth in the league in offense in 2006 and still have Steven Jackson, Tory Holt, and Marc Bulger. Carolina has always been able to move the football through the air. The Rams did not show anything during the NFLX season and were holding it all back for this affair. Expect them to come out big in the dome, as both teams reach the twenties in points and we will with the over.


4 Unit Play. #126 Take Oakland -2 over Detroit (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox)

No surprisingly this game is not the feature game this weekend, but it should be a good match-up between two squads looking to improve after bad 2006 seasons. The main stat is this game is the road record of the Lions, 6-42 in their last 48 games. The Lions will be without their main running back in Kevin Jones and thus will have to live and die through the air, which does not bode well since QB Kinta committed 33 turnovers. Detroit loses this game and Oakland just capitalizes on their mistakes.


3 Unit Play. #136 Take San Francisco -3 over Arizona (Monday 10:15 pm ESPN)

An important game for two improved teams in 2007 takes place on Monday night, as these two teams open the season for the second straight year. The Cardinals still have a bad defense and were burned by the passing game last year, ranking 30th in the NFL. The 49ers made some quiet signing during the off-season bringing in CB Clements and WR Jackson, both of whom are proven starters in the NFL. This will be a high scoring game in which the 49ers pull away late and win this affair. <table style="table-layout: fixed;" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr> <td colspan="2" class="smalltext" width="100%">
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Brandon Lang

20 DIME

Chargers


10 DIME

Patriots
Steelers
Eagles


5 DIME

Vikings
Raiders
Buffalo

Free Pick- Texans

Newsletters

Marc Lawrence

NFL

5* BEST BET
How good does Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio feel about his team’s
chances this year? Good enough to jettison former starting QB
Byron Leftwich and replace him with the more mobile David
Garrard. Jags also signifi cantly upgraded a stout defense that
had yielded just 17 points per game for three straight seasons.
Despite the heroics of Titan QB Vince Young, Tennessee lands
on our ‘play against’ list for 2007 after winning 8 games while
being outyarded by 69 yards a contest last season. Jacko is 8-0
ATS in Game One and the SU winner is the Titan series is a highly
profi table 22-2 against the number. With Del Rio standing at
19-9-1 ATS when laying single digits at home, we’ll prowl with
the Jaguars today.

JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee by 17


3* BEST BET
The addition of rangy WR Calvin Johnson alongside WR Roy
Williams give Lions’ offensive coordinator Mike Martz a loaded
arsenal to bring to the Bay. When Oakland’s offense takes the
fi eld, however, Detroit could be in danger of being fl agged for
too many men on the fi eld. The reason? Raiders’ QB Daunte
Culpepper just might be the Lions’ new secret weapon. With
Culpepper a miserable 13-27 ATS as a pick or favorite – and just
12-30 SU versus non-division foes – Detroit’s recent 4-0 ATS run
in Game One looks like a good bet to continue.

Detroit over OAKLAND by 10


4* BEST BET
How can the Bengals be favored in this contest? Cincy is a pitiful
1-7 ATS playing at home in Game One, owns a 2-6 ATS mark on
Mondays and highly-touted QB Carson Palmer can’t even claim
a winning ATS record when playing at Paul Brown Stadium (8-
14-1). Taking the underdog Ravens gets even easier when we
see that dogs in the fi rst Monday Night game of the season have
barked to the tune of 20-8 ATS. The NFL’s best defense taking
points from the league’s worst? We’re there – everytime

Baltimore over CINCINNATI by 10




Power Sweep

NFL
4* Jacksonville 27-7

3* San Diego 20-7

2* Houston 16-6

2* Cleveland 16-13

Totals

3* KC under
3* Oakland under
3* Denver over
2* Cleveland under
2* Atlanta under



Pointwise

NFL KEY RELEASES

SAN DIEGO over Chicago RATING: 2
PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay RATING: 3
SEATTLE over Tampa Bay RATING: 4
CAROLINA over St Louis RATING: 4
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee RATING: 5




THE GOLD SHEET



SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

HOUSTON 20 - Kansas City 13

--Houston only 4-6 as a favorite in its 5-year history. But the accumulation of negatives on K.C. side seems to put inordinate pressure on former holdout RB Larry Johnson (only 3 rushes in preseason) to carry the load. QB Damon Huard (5-3 SU as a starter LY) barely played in exhibitions (only 9 atts.) and has a sore calf. The Chiefs no longer have a premium OL. DE Jared Allen (7½ sacks) is suspended. Receiver help for TE Tony Gonzalez is not apparent. Meanwhile, Matt Schaub, Ahman Green, and rookie WR/KR Jacoby Jones (TDs via PR, KOR & pass in preseason) offering hope for Texan offense (17 ppg LY).

(05-Kansas City -7 45-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)


BUFFALO 17 - Denver 16

Bills 7-3 as a dog LY, but they're counting very heavily on rookie RB Marshawn Lynch to balance their offense. Denver now super-quick at the corners on defense with the addition of Dre' Bly. Still, young QB Jay Cutler (2-3) has only 5 career starts, while J.P. Losman played every down LY for Buffalo on offense. Broncos' banged-up OL, RB & receiver platoons help point toward "under," even with Bills' depth issues at DE. (05-Denver -8' 28-17...SR: Buffalo 18-14-1)


Pittsburgh 26 - CLEVELAND 10

Pittsburgh 6-0-1 vs. spread last 7 in series, so will side with Mike Tomlin in his debut as HC over Cleveland, which again has problems in its OL (RT Ryan Tucker 4-game suspension; would-be C LeCharles Bentley is still out; check status of LG Steinbach's knee ). Such is not the case with Steeler OL & RB Willie Parker. Will Tomlin, a WR in college, unleash the no-huddle, spread offense he installed for Ben Roethliesberger in camp? Will Charlie Frye (10 TDs, 17 ints. LY) dump the ball repeatedly to Kellen Winslow II, as reported (Rob Chudzinski, his college position coach at Miami, is now the Browns' off. coord.)?

(06-Pitt 24-CLE. 20...P.23-15 C.29/99 P.20/77 P.25/44/3/261 C.17/27/0/203 P.0 C.2)

(06-PITT 27-Cle. 7...P.26-11 P.52/303 C.11/18 C.21/37/1/276 P.11/21/0/225 P.1 C.1)

(06-Pittsburgh -3' 24-20, PITTSBURGH -7 27-7...SR: EVEN 55-55)


OVER THE TOTAL JACKSONVILLE 28 - Tennessee 19

Last weekend's abrupt release of Byron Leftwich clouds the picture a bit, but certainly don't mind trying the "over" with Tennessee team that exceeded the total 13 of 16 times LY. Vince Young reading defenses better, while Titan OL & receivers appear underrated. Defense, however, is still a work in progress, and Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, and the mobile David Garrard are well-equipped to exploit. Jags 77 total points vs. Tenn. last 2 on this field.

(06-JACK. 37-Tenn. 7...J.17-14 J.30/173 T.32/108 J.12/22/0/169 T.15/36/3/154 J.0 T.0)

(06-TENN. 24-Jack. 17...J.23-5 J.40/202 T.16/41 J.22/37/3/194 T.8/15/0/57 T.0 J.1)

(06-JACKSONVILLE -9' 37-7, TENNESSEE +3' 24-17...SR: Tennessee 14-11)


ST. LOUIS 27 - Carolina 20

Remember, Rams were mostly using a repaired OL in 2006 when Steven Jackson racked up a league-leading 2334 yards rushing and receiving. Now, the front wall is healthier and deeper, and Jackson has a fine backup/FB in rookie Brian Leonard. St. Louis defense (CB F. Brown suspended) will have its hands full with Carolina WR Steve Smith. But if Panthers' OL and QB concerns of LY have been resolved, such was not apparent in the preseason. Dante Hall boosts Rams' return game.

(06-CAR. 15-St. Louis 0...C.20-8 C.43/242 S.8/31 C.13/26/2/169 S.19/34/1/80 C.1 S.1)

(06-CAROLINA -6' 15-0...SR: Carolina 10-7)



Philadelphia 24 - GREEN BAY 16

Until we see proof to the contrary, must give edge to Philly's McNabb-Westbrook combo over G.B.'s Favre-Brandon Jackson (or other RB) duo. McNabb appears ready to pick up where he left off LY (18 TDs, 6 ints.) before his knee injury, and we all have seen how Favre's mentality can by fazed when things aren't going right. He hasn't been a bundle of enthusiasm this summer (the front office didn't open the purse strings to bring in much help), even though third-round pick WR James Jones has been a positive.

(06-PHIL. 31-G. Bay 9...P.23-20 P.27/131 G.28/99 P.17/32/0/267 G.24/47/2/219 P.2 G.1)

(06-PHILADELPHIA -11' 31-9...SR: Green Bay 22-15


MINNESOTA 19 - Atlanta 12

Which QB is going to make more mistakes, Tarvaris Jackson (0-2 as a starter LY) of the Vikes, or Joey Harrington of the Falcons. Not sure, but will side with the "under" and hope neither coughs up turnovers for easy points. Perhaps the more interesting question, however, is whether Minny prize rookie RB Adrian Peterson will quickly emerge as a dominant NFL force behind fierce-blocking LG Steve Hutchinson. Viking secondary, a liability LY (last in pass defense), is now improved.

(05-ATLANTA -6 30-10...SR: Minnesota 15-9)



Miami 17 - WASHINGTON 13

Clinton Portis sat out the entire preseason for the Redskins, who stayed "vanilla" on offense, while new Miami mentor Cam Cameron unwrapped much more of his playbook (including a Statue of Liberty TD run). Still, Cameron inherits a nasty defense that adds former Steeler LB Joey Porter (knee; says he'll be ready). Even with a new team, Trent Green rates the QB edge over Jason Campbell. Washington defense was last in both sacks and ints. LY! (03-MIAMI -6' 24-23...SR: Miami 7-4)



New England 27 - NY JETS 16

NE 7-1-1 vs. the spread last 9 meetings vs. the Jets, so don't mind giving a shot to ever-so-competent Patriots, with the quick Laurence Maroney at RB and added speed at WR (check status of Randy Moss; hamstring). Insiders say the most valuable additions might turn out to be first-down makers RB Sammie Morris & slot receiver Wes Welker from Miami. DE Richard Seymour and key S Rodney Harrison out for N.E., but, remember, Harrison has missed 19 reg.-season games over the L2Ys.

(06-N. Eng. 24-JETS 17...Ne.24-16 Ne.39/147 Ny.24/51 Ny.22/37/1/286 Ne.15/29/1/211 Ne.1 Ny.0)

(06-Jets 17-N. ENG. 14...Ne.22-19 Ne.25/143 Ny.29/117 Ne.25/37/1/234 Ny.22/33/1/161 Ny.0 Ne.1)

(06-N. ENG. 37-Jets 16...Ne.26-18 Ne.38-158 Ny.16/70 Ny.24/41/1/277 Ne.22/34/0/200 Ne.1 Ny.1)

(06-N. En. -6 24-17, Jets +10' 17-14, N. EN. -9 37-16 (Playoff)...SR: NY Jets 48-46-1)



SEATTLE 24 - Tampa Bay 13

Don't forget that Seattle won its third straight NFC West title LY despite the free-agent loss of top blocker Steve Hutchinson and lingering key injuries suffered by QB Matt Hasselbeck & RB Shaun Alexander. In their brief preseason appearances in 2007, the latter two have looked excellent, and the Seahawk defense has been bolstered in free agency, the draft, and trades. New Bucs' QB Jeff Garcia inherited a strong supporting cast when he stepped in LY with the Eagles; such is not quite the same in Tampa Bay. Bucs "under" 12 of last 16 away.

(06-Sea. 23-T. BAY 7...S.28-15 S.42/132 T.21/110 S.17/29/0/212 T.16/27/0/177 S.1 T.2)

(06-Seattle +3 23-7...SR: Seattle 6-1)



SAN DIEGO 26 - Chicago 23

The Turner brothers (new HC Norv for S.D. and off. coord. Ron for Chicago) calling the plays in this one. And Chargers' LB coach Ron Rivera gets a shot at his old team, which passed him over TY for defensive coordinator. The combination of Chicago's league-leading 44 takeaways on defense and Rex Grossman's mistakes on offense (20 ints., 8 fumbles) helped Chicago go 11-4-1 "over" LY in the regular season. Bears 7-1 SU as a visitor LY, and Lovie says this is his deepest team.

(03-CHICAGO -2 20-7...SR: Chicago 5-4)


OAKLAND 23 - Detroit 10

Rookie HC Lane Kiffin says he might withhold his decision on a QB starter all the way to game day, as recently-acquired Daunte Culpepper played better than expected in the preseason, while former Cardinal and Lion Josh McCown has been working closely with Kiffin the entire offseason. Kiffin appears to have shorn up the porous Raider OL and enlivened LY's moribund offense. And Oakland defense (third in points allowed; first vs. the pass) ready to pick up where it left off. Lions have their own OL woes, QB Kitna tossed 21 ints., and star rookie WR Calvin Johnson is still learning. Oakland "under" 12-4 LY. (03-DETROIT +3 23-13...SR: Oakland 6-3)


*DALLAS 26 - NY Giants 24

Giants 5-0-1 vs. line last 6 meetings, and 5-2-2 "over" last 9 away overall. And both teams have concerns in the secondary, with N.Y. S Will Demps (elbow) through for the season and Dallas CB Terence Newman battling a foot injury. With T.O. healthy, "over" might be the ticket, even with Michael Strahan rejoining team (N.Y. 22-11 with him L3Ys, 3-12 without him; check status). Cowboy coach Wade Phillips ready to unleash DeMarcus Ware as a pass rusher, but Eli Manning showed improvement vs. blitzes in preseason. TV--NBC

(06-Giants 36-DAL. 22...D.21-18 N.39/155 D.21/69 D.21/37/4/310 N.12/26/1/173 N.1 D.0)

(06-Dal. 23-GIANTS 20...N.22-21 N.29/126 D.24/110 N.24/36/0/270 D.20/34/2/255 D.0 N.1)

(06-NY Giants +3' 36-22, Dallas -3' 23-20...SR: Dallas 52-35-2)



MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

*Baltimore 23 - CINCINNATI 20

Baltimore's trade for the younger, quicker Willis McGahee to replace Jamal Lewis appears to be a prescient move. And Cincy is shorthanded due to the suspensions of WR Chris Henry, MLB Odell Thurman, DE Frostee Rucker, plus early injury concerns at LB. Thus, will shade Ravens and defense that finished No. 1 in yards, points, interceptions, takeaways, and completion percentage in 2007. Fourth-round pick LB Antwan Barnes (Florida Int'l) moving quickly into the Adalius Thomas role. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-BALT. 26-Cincy 20...B.22-17 B.38/129 C.22/92 B.21/31/0/245 B.12/26/2/183 B.0 C.1)

(06-CINCY 13-Balt. 7...B.15-14 B.20/89 C.23/67 C.21/32/0/227 B.26/43/0/227 C.0 B.1)

(06-BALTIMORE -3 26-20, CINCINNATI -3 13-7...SR: Baltimore 13-9)


*Arizona 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 26

"Wild" series in recent years, with 6 of the last 7 meetings going "over," and Arizona winning the last 4 SU. Cards 17-6-1 "over" on road L3Ys. Will trend change now that new HC Ken Whisenhunt (will call the Arizona plays) insists Cards will run better? Whisenhunt has told second-year QB Matt Leinart to step up his game. S.F. RB Frank Gore (hand fracture reportedly healed) says he's ready, and Niners have added CB Nate Clements (Buffalo) and rookie LB Patrick Willis (Ole Miss) to defense. TV--ESPN

(06-ARIZ. 34-S. Fran. 27...A.23-19 S.18/107 A.29/84 S.23/40/0/286 A.23/37/0/283 A.1 S.2)

(06-Ariz. 26-S. FRAN. 20...A.21-14 A.41/123 S.12/49 A.18/26/0/249 S.18/29/1/174 A.1 S.1)

(06-ARIZONA -8' 34-27, Arizona +4 26-20...SR: San Francisco 17-14





MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

Baltimore and Cincinnati on Monday Night

Baltimore is 1-2 straight-up and 2-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-1 straight-up and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Cincinnati is 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
3-15 straight-up and 4-14 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

Arizona and San Francisco on Monday Night

Arizona is 2-5 straight-up and 2-5 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-6-1 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
San Francisco is 19-10 straight-up and 19-8-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
16-13 straight-up and 19-10 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS IN 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)

2006 Reg. Seas.: Cincinnati -3 beat Baltimore 13-7 at Cincinnati
2006 Reg. Seas.: Baltimore -3 beat Cincinnati 26-20 at Baltimore
2006 Reg. Seas.: Arizona +4 beat San Francisco 26-20 at San Francisco
2006 Reg. Seas.: Arizona -8½ beat San Francisco 34-27 at Arizona


NFL KEY RELEASES


PITTSBURGH by 16 over Cleveland
OAKLAND by 13 over Detrot
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tennessee-Jacksonville

NFL Comps


Bobby Maxwell

Miami (+3) at WASHINGTON

Let's kick off the NFL season with a Bonus Play on the Dolphins as they travel to the nation's Capitol to take on the Redskins today.

Neither one of these teams did much winning or covering last season but the Dolphins had the better offseason, bringing in an offensive-minded coach in Cam Cameron and a veteran QB in Trent Green.

Miami was 6-10 SU and ATS in 2006 while Washington was 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS, including a horrible 1-4 SU and ATS mark in December.

The Dolphins have had a dominant defense about the last eight years and had the fourth-ranked defense in the league last season. Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games against NFC teams and has gone 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 years in season openers.

On the other side, Washington has given the keys to the car to young Jason Campbell who will make just his eighth career start in this one. The Redskins finished last season 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games and have gone just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine opening games.

Look for this to be a low-scoring affair decided by a late field goal. Either way we're going to grab the points and go with the Dolphins in this one.


3? MIAMI



Sports Gambling Hotline


New England (-6) at NY JETS

Last year the Jets managed a split in the season series, as new coach Eric Mangini and his team did spring a 17-14 upset win at Foxboro in mid-season. Unfortunately for the Jets, New England dumped them in the playoffs to a tune of 37-16 as the 9-point favorite.

We will side with the Pats on the road in this spot, as New England has proven to be a cash cow on the road over the years, sporting a 13-4 spread mark as an away favorite their last 17.

Series numbers show New England with a 7-1-1 spread mark the last 9 meetings, and the Pats have won the last 5 at the Meadowlands outright, while covering their last 7 as the visitor in this rivalry.

Seymour and Harrison may be out for the Patriots, but New England appears to be better equipped this season on offense to make up for any defensive shortcomings they may have.

Play on the Pats!



4? NEW ENGLAND


Karl Garrett

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE (-6)

Last year these teams closed the regular season with a meeting in Tampa that saw the Seahawks end a 3-game losing streak in convincing fashion with a 23-7 win and cover as the 3-point underdog.

It may be a new season, but the G-Man sees the same results, as I like the Seahawks to open in the pacific northwest with the win and cover as the 6-point choice.

Tampa Bay is not a very good team, and I don't see them improving on their 4-12 mark from a season ago. The Bucs are only 7-20 against the spread their last 20 games away from home.

Seattle's Hasselbeck and Alexander are both coming off of injuries from last season, but the G-Man really liked what he saw when those 2 were on the field in the preseason this August.

The Seahawks have been able to go 12-6-1 against the math at home since 2005, and I like them to move that mark to 13-6-1 after today's win and cover in the Emerald City.

Seattle the call in Week 1.



3? SEATTLE


Chuck Franklin

Chicago at SAN DIEGO (-6')

The San Diego Chargers are confident with new head coach Norv Turner they will come back and be just as good as they were last year. That is yet to be determined but today at least they should easily take care of a Chicago Bears team that is not as good as people think. As long as they have Rex Grossman as quarterback I can’t continue to back the Chicago Bears. Yes, they have a great defense, but the Chargers at home will be able to exploit it with superstar Ladainian Tomlinson leading the way.

I have a monster trend against the Chicago Bears today that says go against the loser of the Super Bowl when on the road in the month of September. This has been accurate 86% of the time since 1998 with that losing Super Bowl team going 2-12 against the spread. Add to this the fact that the Bears haven’t covered the spread when listed as the underdog against an AFC team in the last eight times in this situation. Side with the Chargers at home in this one.


3? CHARGERS



MIKE ROSE


Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans u38.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 9 '07 1:00p

This sure is a lofty point total for a couple of teams still searching for an offensive identity. KC’s troubles in the pre-season had everything to do with their lack of offensive power, and absolutely nothing to do with their “D”. Their stop unit flew around the field on every snap, ultimately keeping them in three of their four pre-season games. QB Damon Huard got the starting nod in Week 3 of the exhibition month, and he certainly wasn’t that great throughout his reps with the first and second team. Look for the Chiefs to look to their Cadillac, RB Larry Johnson, often as he looks to take it to this Houston defense that allowed opponents to rush for 122 YPG last year.
Every one of Houston’s games went ‘Over’ the total in the pre-season, which has many leaning towards the ‘Over’ in this spot. Don’t take the bait. QB Matt Schaub is yet to have a team to call his own, and I don’t foresee this offense picking right back up where it left off a week ago. Especially against this Chiefs defense that knows it will be leaned upon heavily early on until the offense rights its ship.
Look for both clubs to do a ton of running, and for the battle of field position to take center stage. It certainly won’t be a pretty contest, and the combined score shouldn’t come close to challenging this lofty number.



San Diego Chargers -6.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 9 '07 4:15p

One of the premiere match-ups of Week 1 pits the defending NFC Champion Chicago Bears against the San Diego Chargers. Being a Bears fan, I can’t tell you how nervous I am for this match-up.
I’ve got a sick feeling in my stomach that keeps telling me we’re going to get rolled up and smoked in this spot. I just don’t like the vibe I’ve gotten out of Halas Hall throughout the entire off-season, and I’m starting to believe we’re going to be in for a very trying season. Ala Seattle form ’06. From the Tank situation, to Lance Briggs saying he’ll never play for us again, then resigning for a year, and then abandoning his Lamborghini in the city after he drunkenly wrapped it around a telephone poll. Then QB Grossman’s slippery hands followed up by our prized #1 draft pick hurting his knee in our last game of the pre-season when he should have been resting with the bulk of the starters. I just don’t like it!!!
San Diego returns almost completely intact, save for Marty, and you can find LT on the cover of ESPN the Magazine chirping that in order for him and his teammates to be remembered, they have to win a Super Bowl. Well, the test if they can pull off such a feat starts Sunday afternoon, and they’re getting one of the best the NFC has to offer in their own house. No better time than now to start making people remember you.
SD has covered 12 of their L/15 home openers ATS, and the Bears are a woeful 4-9 ATS their L/13 away vs. the AFC. Lay the points with the Chargers as the Bears fail miserably on the west coast year in and year out, and the loser of the Super Bowl is a glaring 0-7 ATS the L/7 years. Why go against that streak now???




San Francisco 49ers -3.0 (-120)
Monday Sep 10 '07 10:15p

Perfect opportunity for the 49ers to gain some much-needed confidence against a lesser opponent, and pick up a game within the division in the process. I really like what HC Mike Nolan and his staff has done over in the Bay the last two seasons, and this franchise really started to form an identity in the last month of their 2006 campaign. Big December wins at both Seattle and Denver leads me to believe San Francisco is on its way back to being respectable in this league.
As for Arizona, the talent has been there the last couple years, but glaring holes on both sides of the ball and an incompetent coaching staff has this franchise in search of its first winning campaign since 1998. The Bidwell’s decided to clean house this past off-season and made a solid hire in Ken Whisenhunt who called the smash mouth offensive attacks in Pittsburgh in his last stop. Along with him, he brought in O-Line coach Russ Grimm who should have a profound effect on the play of this unit. That being said, the Cardinals will go through growing pains most teams go through while implementing new philosophies on both sides of the ball. HC Whisenhunt prefers a run oriented system, and it’s going to take time for Arizona to get used to it. As for the defense, it’s getting a facelift as well and their first six opponents can all tally the 26 PPG they allowed a season ago if not more. I definitely see an upside for Arizona further along down the road, but they’re cannon fodder right now and the Niners are going to have a very big night on both sides of the ball.
San Francisco has been an excellent proposition under the bright lights on Monday night as they’re a solid 14-3 ATS their L/17 tries. Two of the Cardinals five wins were against San Francisco last year, and that just can’t sit well with this club. 2007 is their coming out party, and they have to beat this type of caliber team into a bloody pulp if they’re to be taken for real. Look for them to do just that as they cover this spread with ease en route to their first victory of the season.



Norm Hitzges

Double Play--Jacksonville -6.5 vs Tennessee
Double Play--Seattle -6 vs Tampa Bay
Double Play--Houston -3 vs Kansas City
St. Louis -1 vs Carolina
San Diego -6 vs Chicago
Dallas -6 vs NY Giants
Baltimore +3 vs Cincy
Arizona/SF Over 45



LT Profits

Bonus Plays

New York Jets +6.5 (-110)
Sun Sep 9 '07 1:00p

NY Jets +6.5 at home vs. NE Patriots

Many people are already putting the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl after strengthening their receiving corps, but this is still too many points to be giving on the road inside the division.

Besides, wide receiver Randy Moss missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, so he will not be 100 percent even if he does play, and he did not get a chance to get his timing down with Tom Brady in the offense. This is not to say that they will not be a lethal combination come playoff time, but we do not expect many big plays here at the outset.

The Jets also improved themselves in the off season by acquiring running back Thomas Jones from the NFC Champion Chicago Bears. The Jets struggled to run the ball last season when using a back-by-committee system, but Jones gives them just the threat they need to balance their offense. He will also allow the Jets to run more of a ball control offense here, keeping Brady and Company on the sidelines.

The Jets will certainly have motivation after getting eliminated by these Patriots 37-16 in the playoffs last season, and we look for them to give an inspired performance as a decided home underdog in this spot.

NFL Free Pick: Jets +6.5



New York Giants +6.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 9 '07 8:15p

NY Giants +6 at Dallas Cowboys

This looks like an inflated line given the intensity of the rivalry between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys.

In fact, it is the Giants that are 4-0-2 against the spread in the last six head-to-head meetings, and in the last three meetings here in Dallas, New York won two games outright and lost the other by three points in overtime! Sure the retirement of Tiki Barber hurts, but it is just now coming out that Tiki may not have been the most popular teammate around, and his departure may actually boost morale somewhat.

We also expect the Giants to have success passing the ball in this game. Eli Manning had a great preseason, and the return of wide receiver Amani Toomer opposite of primary target Plaxico Burress is certainly a positive. Do not forget that the G-Men also have one of the best receiving tight ends in football in Jeremy Shockey.

That passing combination should have success vs. a Dallas secondary that has some issues. Sure the Cowboys are tough against the run, but the defensive backs allowed a lot of big plays due to coverage breakdowns last season, and we simply do not see that much help coming in.

Look for Manning and Company to exploit that weakness all night long to match Dallas all night long, and if the Giants do not pull off the upset, we do not see them losing by more than a field goal here.

NFL Free Pick: Giants +6



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Patriots12

Any Sebastians baseball plays for today
Thanks.

Ben Burns
3-Game "EXECUTIVE" REPORT

Jax - 7

Browns +4.5

Carolina UNDER 43

CFL

Ben Burns

Game: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers Sep 9 2007 4:05PM

Prediction: Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Reason: The Rough Riders have been playing very well and they beat the Bombers at Saskatchewn last week. However, I expect Winnipeg to return the favor and to cool them off this afternoon. The Bombers have won four of their last five home games. They've also won 10 of their last 12 home meetings (7-4-1 ATS) with the Riders with nine of those 10 victories coming by a minimum of a field goal. Look for them to continue their strong play on this field with a big effort in front of the home fans. Consider a play on Winnipeg




Texans Personal Fav

Under NYG NFC East TOM

Under NYJ AFC TOW

Can'tPickaWinner said:

JIM FEIST

The Devil Rays James Shields is usually overlooked on this team with ace pitcher Kazmir as the highlighted starter of the staff. However, Shields has been a very good pitcher for a not-so-good team this season. Shields has quietly compiled a 11-8 record on the season and a nifty 6-3 mark at home with a 3.60 era. And, the Rays win for Shields as the club has won his last four starts and five of six. Jesse Litsch had also been pitching well, that is until his last start where he gave up seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Litsch is now 3-4 on the road with a decent 3.71 era. Shields has a 2-0 mark the last two seasons against this club and we believe he will make it a perfect 3-0 after Sunday's game. Take the home club here on Sunday.

Click to expand...

JIM FEIST BASEBALL 2007 REGULAR SEASON PACKAGE!!
(959) FLA Marlins vs
(960) PHI Phillies

Game Starts at September 09 2007 10:35 EST
Take (960) PHI Phillies
5 Star

Michael Cannon Money Train

Sunday Night Play...

10 Dime –

GIANTS
Take the points with the Giants tonight on the road over the Cowboys.
This is one of the more bitter rivalries in the NFL and it should be a pretty tight game.
There are questions about how effective the Giants will be this year without Tiki Barber, but there are enough weapons on offense that it shouldn’t bog them down without him.
Eli Manning had a good preseason, completing 32 of 46 passes for 318 yards and two TDs. I know you can’t place any value on preseason statistics, but Eli did look comfortable in the pocket and in his reads.
The Cowboys begin the Wade Phillips era tonight and I’ve never been a big fan of how he manages a game.
There is also the question of how Tony Romo will fare this season. He looked great in his first five starts of last year, but fizzled out in his last five. He also botched the snap on a potential game-winning field goal in their playoff loss at Seattle.
The Giants are an impressive 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cowboys, and four of the last five games were decided by a touchdown or less.
Take the points with the Giants as they keep it close in Big D tonight.

Sunday's Plays...

30 Dime –

SEAHAWKS
Lay the points with Seattle today when they host Tampa Bay.
The Seahawks figure to have a better season this year, as they enter the 2007 campaign with Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck both healthy. Just as important, the offensive line is injury-free as well.
The Buccaneers will start Jeff Garcia at quarterback, but he’s going to find that he doesn’t have the weapons in Tampa that he had in Philadelphia last year.
Seattle has also bolstered its defense this year through free agency, the draft and trades. Playing in one of the NFL’s toughest home venues will give the Seahawks an even greater advantage over the Bucs.
Tampa Bay is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games under coach Jon Gruden, while Seattle is on a 4-0 ATS run in home openers. The Seahawks are also 12-6-1 ATS at home the past two seasons.
Lay the points with Seattle as they win and cover over Tampa Bay.

10 Dime –

STEELERS
Lay the points with the Steelers on the road over the Browns.
Pittsburgh has dominated this series since Cleveland returned to the NFL in 1999. Granted, the Steelers will operate with new coach Mike Tomlin, but most of the key members of the Super Bowl winning team in 2005 are still around.
Ben Roethlisberger will be asked to take a bigger responsibility in the offense this year, and considering he led the league with 23 interceptions it’s either a sign that Big Ben has a complete grasp of what’s going on, or it’s going to be a disaster for Tomlin.
I’m willing to bet that Ben has a handle on everything and I expect a return to form from his first two seasons when he set league records for wins at the start of a career.
Willie Parker gashed the Browns defense last season and he should continue that pace today against a Cleveland unit that made no upgrades in the offseason.
If the Steelers control the line of scrimmage, they’ll continue a familiar trend against the Browns where they’ve consistently beat them by double digits.
On defense, Pittsburgh led the league in fewest points allowed per game during the preseason, and that was with a vanilla look. Now that defensive coordinator **** LeBeau can gameplan, it should make for a long day for Charlie Frye and company.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Cleveland, winning by an average score of 28-12.
The Browns are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home openers and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games against AFC North opponents.
Lay the points with the Steelers as they grab the road win and cover.

EAGLES
Lay the points with Philadelphia on the road over Green Bay.
The Eagles will welcome back quarterback Donovan McNabb and I expect him to pick up where he left off last season before he was lost with a knee injury. McNabb was on his way to a spectacular season, tossing 18 TDs against only six INTs before he was hurt.
The Packers just don’t match up well against the Eagles, going 0-4 SUATS in the past four meetings. Philadelphia has outscored Green Bay by 57 points during the past three years.
By letting running back Ahman Green go, the Packers have nobody to keep the Philadelphia defense honest which will open up the blitzing lanes against quarterback Brett Favre.
The Packers are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight home openers.
Lay the points with Philadelphia as they grab the road win and cover.

5 Dime –

Lions-Raiders UNDER
Take the under this afternoon between the Lions and the Raiders.
I can’t believe this total is posted so high. It may not seem like much to the average bettor, but Oakland is just as deficient offensively as it was last year and while the Lions may talk a good game, they’re going to have a tough time putting points on the board against a good Raiders defense.
Jon Kitna was a turnover machine for Detroit last year, and that plays right into the Raiders strength, their pass defense.
Oakland had a forgettable 2006 season, but not because of their defense, which ranked third in the league.
Both teams are going to struggle to move the ball today, so play on the under.

ATS LOCK CLUB

6 units on the Dallas Cowboys (-5 1/2) over the NY Giants, 8:00
5 units on the Pittsburgh Steelers (-4 1/2) over the Cleveland Browns, 1:00
4 units on the Detroit Lions (+2 1/2) over the Oakland Raiders, 4:00
4 units on the St Louis Rams (-1) over the Carolina Panthers, 1:00

TOM SCOTT'S NFL SMASH GAME!
SEATTLE over Tampa Bay by 17
Seattle is 16-3 SU at home in its last 19 chances with a 13-6 ATS mark in those 19 games. The Seahawks are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 SU home win sand 23-5 ATS when they allow 17 or less points (Tampa is 1-8 SU in its last nine road games averaging a meager 1- points per game in those nine contests). Seagulls get off to a good start against the punchless Bucs.
PREDICTION: SEATTLE 27 - Tampa Bay 10

NFL Lock Guarantee

NFL Lock

Redskins -3 lock

Lions +2.5

Steelers -5

Jets +6.5

Bengals -3


dave malinsky 6*

Phi(nfl)

DAVID PAGE

PREMIUM

Philadelphia Eagles -3

Washington Redskins
Miami Dolphins Under 34.5

Atlanta Falcons +3
Under 35.5

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5
Under 41

San Diego Chargers -6.5

Hank Goldberg

Chicago
Jacksonville
St Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

LARRY NESS


My 15* play is on the Phi Phillies at 1:35 ET. The Phillies are struggling to stay in the wild card hunt and will turn to 44-year-old Jamie Moyer to keep up his dominance over the Marlins. Though he's been in the majors since 1986, it would be 20 years before Moyer would first face Florida. After being acquired by the Phillies late last year he beat the Marlins three times in September. He's beaten them in all three meetings this year as well, giving him a career 6-0 mark with a 2.31 ERA. Both Moyer and the Phillies have struggled recently. Moyer dropped to 1-3 with an 8.41 ERA over his last four starts after allowing four runs and nine hits in 5. innings of a 5-1 loss on Monday at Atlanta. However. the Phils did beat Florida Saturday afternoon and are 18-9 at home since the break, plus I'm counting on Moyer to do his "usual thing" when it comes to the Marlins. As for the Marlins, they are just 5-18 since mid-August and Dontrelle Willis is an abysmal 1-11 with a 5.14 ERA over his last 18 starts, going all the way back to early June (team is 4-14). Moyer has 'owned' the Marlins plus the lefty will face a Florida team that's 2-7 (minus-$525) vs left-handers on the road, including 1-5 (minus-$400) in away day games (averaging just 3.7 RPG). Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Phi Phillies.

Good Luck...Larry

Can'tPickaWinner said:

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (26-10 since May 6!)
Trailing 3-0 after one inning on Saturday, the Cardinals rallied with seven in the third, but couldn't hold the lead and lost 9-8. With the Cubs and Brewers winning earlier, St Louis dropped two games behind the Chicago and Milwaukee in the division. St Louis hopes a rare start by Brad Thompson (6-5, 5.07 ERA) can help them draw closer in the Central before it meets the Cubs on Monday in a makeup game at Chicago. The right-hander, who will make his first start since July 28, is 4-3 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 such appearances but St. Louis is 10-3 in those games. However, he's struggled on the road recently, going 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in his last four road starts. Over his last 22.1 innings as a starter away from Busch Stadium, Thompson has yielded 15 ERs, 29 hits and walked 10. The Cardinals' offense has also given him almost no help either, providing only two runs of support. That hardly spells good news with the Cards facing Arizona's Doug Davis (13-11, 3.98 ERA). The left-hander was beaten by St Louis on July 5 and closed out the first half of the season with a record of 5-10 and a 4.26 ERA in 18 starts. However, following the All-Star break, Davis is 8-1 with a 3.54 ERA in 11 starts (team is 10-1!), allowing two runs over less in six of those outings. For the season, the D;backs are 18-11 (plus-$971) in Davis' starts, making him MLB's sixth-best pitcher against the moneyline. Speaking of the moneyline, at plus-$1,762, the D'backs sit atop MLB's moneyline standings. Davis will face a St Louis team today that's gone only 4-9 (minus-$470) vs lefties on the road in day games. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Az D'backs.

Good Luck...Larry

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3 nfl plays
20* seattle
wipeout sd/chi over
insider.. jacksonville

Sebastian
20* JAX
20* CAR under
20* BUFF
20* (6.5 pt teaser) Minn under & Wash under
50* CLEV
50* CAR
100* KC

7* LAA
10* TB
10* NYY under