service plays 9/13/07

Comps

Michael Cannon

St. Louis at CINCINNATI (-130) A terrible call with the Phillies on the run line last night as they are blanked 12-0 by the Rockies.

I will atone for that mistake today with the Reds at home over the Cardinals.

Cincinnati will start their ace, Aaron Harang, while St. Louis will start their scrub, Kip Wells.

Harang is 14-4 on the year with a 3.64 ERA. On the rare occasions when he doesn't pitch well, his teammates have rallied to provide him with plenty of run support, which has consistently put him in the position to grab the win.

Wells, on the other hand, has been brutal this year with a 6-16 record and a 5.65 ERA. He has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation recently and I don't see him holding the Reds offense down today.

With injuries taking their toll on the Cardinals lineup, take the Reds this afternoon at Great American Ballpark for the win.



3? CINCINNATI



Chris Jordan

Colorado (-115) at PHILADELPHIA We side with Jeff Francis in this one, as he comes in off a tough-luck loss against San Diego, after lasting eight innings and giving up just two earned runs, but still coming away winless.

He has been impressive in his last three starts, though, giving up just five earned runs in 23 innings, while knocking off the Giants twice.

He is 8-3 on the road this season, and that's much better than Durbin has been at home, where he is 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA. Durbing is 0-2 in his last two starts lasting just four innings, while giving up nine earned runs against Florida in both games.

We take the better pitcher in this one, and roll with the road chalk.



3? ROCKIES



Bobby Maxwell

Chicago Cubs (-105) at Houston Today's Bonus Play is on the Cubs as we go with the team competing in the NL Central to deliver a big winner in Houston today against the Astros.

Gonna go wtih the team fighting for a division crown in this one as the Cubs are coming down the home stretch and have to beat the light-hitting teams like Houston.

Chicago scored the 3-2 win Wednesday and the Astros have now dropped six of their last seven and 8 of their last 10.

Steve Trachsel (0-2, 10.12 ERA) goes for the Cubs and tries to rebound from a couple bad starts since returning to Chicago. Trachsel gave up six runs on six hits in two innings in Pittsburgh on Sunday in a 10-5 loss.

As a New York Met in 2004 and 2003, Trachsel led the Mets to three straight wins over the Astros, holding them to three runs in each outing. Look for Trachsel to get fired up and get the Cubs a win as they battle with the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Woody Williams (8-14, 4.93) goes for the Astros and he is 0-2 in his last three strts and is giving up five runs a game at home this season. He's faced the Cubs four times this season and delivered a quality outing each time but Chicago is just 202 in the four starts.

It's a pretty cheap line to play the better team and the squad that has to have a win. Let's go wtih Chicago in this one.



3? CHICAGO



Sports Gambling Hotline

San Diego (+110) at LOS ANGELES

Tonight in baseball we are going with San Diego to take the rubber game of their 3-game set with the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

Greg Maddux has been in a zone down the stretch, as he is a blistering 4-0 his last 5 starts - ALL San Diego wins! - working 32-plus innings of 8 run baseball. Maddux has also delivered a perfect 3-0 mark against Los Angeles since coming over to San Diego, as he has allowed just 5 runs in 21 innings of work against the Dodgers.

David Wells is getting the start for Los Angeles, and while Boomer did pitch well against the Giants over the weekend in a win, he was only able to work 5 innings of 3 run ball the start prior against his former team the Padres in a no decision. We don't like his stamina when it comes to taking the mound this evening.

The Padres are 11-6 at Los Angeles dating back to last season, and tonight is a must-win with a starter that has been getting the job done of late. Maddux gets it done again tonight.

Play on the Padres.



2? SAN DIEGO



Karl Garrett

NY Yankees (pick) at TORONTO If it hasn't become clear to you yet, it has become quite clear to the G-Man that the Yankees are on a mission, and it is not just a mission for the Wild Card...Boston, are you listening!?!?!

The Yanks win last night makes it a 7-game winning streak for New York, and increases Toronto's losing streak to 5 in a row, and 7 of 9.

AJ Burnett sure looks like he is healthy, as he has gone 1-0 over his last 3 starts, but deserves a better fate, as he has only allowed 5 runs in 22 innings of work.

Ian Kennedy looks like he is for real, as he is 1-0 over his first 2 major league starts, and has only allowed 3 runs in 12 innings of work. The Yanks have been getting timely hitting - as evidenced by last night's line score - and they have been getting great middle relief of late as well.

You won't find the Yankees at a better price than they are tonight, so take'em as they sweep the Jays.



3? YANKEES



Chuck Franklin

Tampa Bay at SEATTLE (-140) This is more of a pick against Tampa Bay than anything else. The pitching match-up has Jason Hammel taking the mound for the lowly Devil Rays and Jeff Weaver getting the start for the Mariners at home. Neither of these guys is really anything to write home about, but Weaver has the advantage of a better team behind him to get the run support he needs. Plus, the Devil Rays are terrible on the road, losing 77 of their last 106 games away from Tampa Bay.

Seattle is on a 10-4 run as home favorites of this price, and the Mariners are 4-0 in Weaver’s last four starts vs. a less than .500 team. The Devil Rays have lost seven of the last eight contests with the Mariners in Seattle, and after tonight’s game you can add another loss to that trend. Seattle also has that tiny ray of hope that if they can keep winning they just may be playing ball in October. Side with the Mariners in this one.


3? MARINERS

Bought and paid for by me...ENJOY!


Larry Ness' 15* MLB Total of the Week (30-10 since Aug 7 / 113-40 this season!)

My 15* play is on Tex/Oak Over at 10:05 ET. After winning 13 of 15 games to make a

.500 season a possibility, the Rangers (69-76) were cooled off with back-to-back

losses at Detroit, scoring one run in each game. However, I like the way the Rangers

are hitting the ball, as they had averaged 6.3 RPG while winning those 13 of 15

games. By the way, the team's 30 runs at Baltimore came BEFORE its 13-2 run! The

Rangers have won nine of 15 this season against the A's, including three straight

wins, in which they scored 24 runs. That matches up well vs Oakland's starters, who

are 2-9 with a 6.33 ERA over the last 18 games. Starting tonight is Chad Gaudin and

he's had "two seasons" in '07. Prior to the break, he went 8-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 18

starts (team was 13-5). However, since the break, he's 2-8 with a 7.15 ERA in 12

starts (team is 3-9), allowing at least five ERs in EIGHT of those 12 outings! As for

Texas, Kevin Millwood (9-11, 5.31 ERA) has pitched better lately, as the team has won

his last three outings. However, all three have come at home. In 13 road starts in

'07, he's allowed 83 hits in 69.2 innings with a 5.43 ERA (he's 2-7 and the team is

4-9). MLB Total of the Week 15* Tex/Oak Over.

Good Luck...Larry

As Usual....

Can anyone get me Brandon Langs picks?

Tell you what...if there was a way to buy all you guys a shot and a beer for these over the web..I would! Thanks again!!!!:toast:

thanks for ness low

Michael Cannon

Michael Cannon Money Train


20 Dime

TCU

Take Tcu tonight for the road win and cover over Air Force.
The Horned Frogs come into this game on the heels of their 34-13 meltdown loss at Texas last week. They actually led 10-0 at halftime before they fell apart.
Now that Tcu doesn’t have to deal with any BCS talk for a while, they can focus their full attention on Air Force. The fact is, Air Force doesn’t match up with this Tcu team at all, as the Horned Frogs are on a 4-0 SUATS run against the Falcons, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two seasons.
Tcu’s team speed on defense wreaks havoc on the Falcon’s option, and with the return of defensive end Tommy Blake I expect more of the same tonight.
Air Force is trying to balance out its attack this year, but they are still running the ball at a 4:1 ratio which plays right into Tcu’s strength.
Tcu is 30-7 ATS when they win straight up on the road against a conference opponent and that number improves to 10-1 ATS when the Horned Frogs are coming off a loss.
Air Force is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall, including 0-5 ATS at home.
Lay the points with Tcu as they win and cover over Air Force.


5 Dime

WEST VIRGINIA

Lay the big number with West Virginia on the road over Maryland.
The Mountaineers survived a bit of a scare last week at Marshall, as they trailed 16-13 midway through the third quarter before pulling away for a 48-23 win.
The amazing thing about that game was West Virginia actually covered the big 24 ½-point spread when it looked like they might suffer a huge upset loss.
That right there shows me this team knows how to make the necessary adjustments midstream to pull away from an eager opponent playing over its head.
The Mountaineers just have too much speed on offense with quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton. Toss in the diminutive freshman running back Noel Devine, another speed burner who has three touchdowns on only 13 touches, and the Mountaineer attack is just flat-out lethal.
Maryland doesn’t have an explosive attack on offense to keep pace in this one, so Wvu should pull away in the second-half when the adrenaline wears off for the Terps.
West Virginia is on an 11-2 ATS run in weekday games and a 9-2 ATS tear on the road.
Maryland is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Lay the points with West Virginia as they run away, literally, with this one.


ROCKIES (With Francis and Durbin as listed pitchers)

Take the Rockies for the road win tonight over the Phillies.
Colorado will start Jeff Francis and the left-hander has been huge for them this year. He’s 15-7 on the year with a 4.05 ERA, including a 2-1 mark with a 1.99 ERA over his last three starts.
If the Rockies’ bats were hot last night, imagine what they might do tonight against Philadelphia starter J.D. Durbin.
Durbin has allowed 12 runs, nine earned, over his last two starts. He lasted only 4 1-3 innings in his last start, but that was a marathon compared to his previous start when he didn’t retire a batter after giving up seven runs on five hits in a 12-6 loss at Florida.
The Rockies have outscored the Phillies 20-2 in winning the last two games and I expect their offensive surge to continue tonight against Durbin.
Take Colorado for the road win.

Rocco Spacamuro

Rocco Spacamuro
50 Units TCU -8

Paul Leiner

Paul Leiner
Thursday, September 13, 2007

Sport: MLB
Game: Cincinatti/St Louis
Prediction: 5* Reds -125

Chuck Franklin:

Chuck Franklin:

2000 TCU

I don’t have much faith in Air Force in this game, even given the fact they are at home. They are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games played in Colorado Springs. And they are facing a very well coached TCU Horned Frogs team that have finished in the top 25 four of the last six years. The Falcons’ win over the broken down Utah Utes last week won’t be enough to get their juices flowing for this much tougher TCU team. Air Force’s new head coach Troy Calhoun is still unproven and I see no signs of greatness yet. The Horned Frogs of TCU have covered the spread in this match-up with Air Force each of the last four meetings, and the last two seasons have been total wipeouts. Look for another such win today, as TCU will surely come out strong against the much weaker Falcons.

1000 NY YANKEES w/KENNEDY over Toronto w/Burnett

This will be the third night in a row I’m riding on the Bronx Bombers, and tonight you get the best price yet. The Yankees are super motivated to get wins right now, especially since they are starting a series with the first place Boston Red Sox tomorrow. They are displaying some impressive offensive firepower of late, winning each of their last seven games and outscoring their opponents 55-18 in the process. I have to take them again tonight with rookie Ian Kennedy on the mound. Kennedy has looked good so far, and is 1-0 with an ERA of only 2.25 in two major league starts. The Blue Jays will counter with A.J. Burnett, who is pitching well of late but that won’t matter. The Jays are only 1-4 in his last five starts vs. a better than .500 team. Take the Yankees to complete the sweep!

Vegas experts

Vegas experts

TCU

TCU lost at Texas last week 34-13 8as a 7.5-pt. dog. Air Force won at Utah 20-12 getting +7. Expect TCU to bounce back and Air Force to fall flat then in this one. TCU has won the last two meetings by 31 ppg. and is 11-4-1 ATS in Conference play since joining the Mountain West. Supporting angles say to Play Against - A home team (AIR FORCE) - a very good team (>=+10 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 5 PPG differential), after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game (36-11 since 1992, 76.6%) and Play On - Road favorites (TCU) - after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning. (27-6 since 1992, 81.8%). Play on TCU.

Michael Alexander

Michael Alexander

Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. Seattle Mariners (MLB)
Sep 13, 2007 10:05 PM EDT

Play on Over w/ Hammel vs Weaver

After a tough loss to the Boston Red Sox last night the Tampa Bay Devil Rays travel all the way across the country to take on the Mariners in Seattle. Tampa Bay, long out of the playoff race look to further dim Seattle's hopes of post season in game #1 of their 4 game weekend series.

The Devil Rays have padded bankrolls this season for total wagers going 42-18 when playing on a grass field. That spells problems for Seattle hurler Jeff Weaver who has really struggled this season. Weaver comes in with a high 6.02 ERA while the over has gone 13-8. Over his last three starts he has really gotten pounded with a sky high 10.95 ERA while the over is a perfect 3-0.

The Seattle Mariners once in the thick of the playoff picture have taken a nose dive and now find themselves 9 1/2 games out of first in the AL West and 6 1/2 in back of the Yankees in the Wild Card Race. The Mariners did win last night but it was only their 3rd win in their last 13 games.

The over has been the way to go with the Mariners as well as they are a profitable 55-41 in night games this season. Tonight they will be facing right-hander Jason Hzmmel who has really struggled on the road with a 7.04 ERA.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: TAMPA BAY is 18-9 OVER (+8.4 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. TAMPA BAY is 18-6 OVER (+11.8 Units) on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 this season. WEAVER is 9-2 OVER (+7.1 Units) in night games this season.

Two teams in this one that struggle to put numbers in the "W" column but can put runs on the board while both pitchers have proven to have trouble getting hitters out. I'm taking the over in this one.

durden84 said:

thanks for ness low

Click to expand...

your welcome...happy to contribute...

Sunshine Forecast

CFB Computer Predictions

Thursday, September 13, 2007

West Virginia(-15½) at Maryland

Power Rating Projection
West Virginia 33 Maryland 15

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction
West Virginia 31 Maryland 13



Texas Christian(-8) at Air Force

Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 23 Air Force 16



SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction
Texas Christian 17 Air Force 11

Gold Sheet


*West Virginia 42 - MARYLAND 19

KO power? West Virginia, trailing 16-13 mid-way thru 3rd Q on road at fired-up in-state rival Marshall last week, scored 35 points in final 21:30 to win easily (and cover huge spread!). QB White & RB Slaton led charge, as usual. And that veteran duo has a new sidekick in quick-as-a-wink true frosh RB Devine (3 TDs, nearly 14 yards per touch in first 2 games). Stodgy Maryland attack (just 270 total yards & 14 FDs at lowly Florida Intl.) can't keep pace.



*Tcu 23 - AIR FORCE 10

Now that TCU doesn't have to concern itself with BCS talk for a while, Frogs can focus full attention on MWC. That's bad news for AFA, as Gary Patterson's speedy "D" wrecked Fisher DeBerry's option past two years, and Falcs still not balancing new-look "O" as well as HC Calhoun would like (run/pass ratio about 4:1). Chance for TCU RS frosh QB Dalton to breathe a little after facing relentless Texas pressure last week.

THE SPORTS ADVISORS


(4) West Virginia (2-0 SU and ATS) at Maryland (2-0, 0-1 ATS)

Maryland looks to snap a three-game losing skid to West Virginia when these two border rivals do battle in a nationally televised non-conference game in College Park, Md.
The Terps are coming off a sluggish 26-10 win at Florida International last week. The defense allowed just 163 yards and forced three turnovers, but Maryland never threatened to cover as a 24-point road favorite, dropping to 1-4 ATS in its last five going back to 2006.
West Virginia survived a scare from instate rival Marshall last week, as they turned a 16-13 deficit midway through the third quarter into a 48-23 victory by scoring five touchdowns in the final 21½ minutes of play. The Mountaineers, who have won four in a row SU, piled up 511 total yards (362 rushing) and barely cashed as a 24½-point favorite.
West Virginia has won three straight meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including the last two in double-digit blowout fashion. Last year in Morgantown, W.Va., the Mountaineers sprinted out to a 28-0 lead against Maryland and cruised to a 45-24 victory as a 17-point home chalk. Rich Rodriguez’s fleet-footed squad has rushed for more than 300 yards against the Terps each of the last two years.
On the bright side for the Terps, they are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings at home. The only non-cover came in 2005, when West Virginia rolled 31-19 as a 3½-point underdog.
Since losing to West Virginia in Week 3 last year, Maryland is on a 9-3 SU run.
West Virginia is on an 11-2 ATS tear in weekday games and a 9-2 ATS run on the road. On the downside, the Mountaineers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against ACC foes.
Maryland is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games and 2-2 ATS as a home underdog under coach Ralph Friedgen.
The over has been the play in this rivalry the last two years. Also, the over is 7-1 in West Virginia’s last eight games (4-0 in the last four).

ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA and OVER



TCU (1-1 SU and ATS) at Air Force (2-0, 1-0 ATS)

Like Maryland, Air Force will have payback in mind tonight when it attempts to snap a four-game losing skid to TCU as these Mountain West Conference rivals clash in Colorado Springs, Colo.
Air Force opened Mountain West play with a 20-12 upset win at Utah as a 7½-point road underdog, holding on for the win after stopping the Utes on consecutive tries from the Falcons’ 1-yard line. Air Force’s option offense was in midseason form against Utah, piling up 334 rushing yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
TCU squandered a 10-0 first-half lead at then-No. 7 Texas last week and went on to lose 34-13 as an 8½-point underdog. The loss snapped the Horned Frogs’ nine-game SU winning streak (8-1 ATS) and sent them tumbling out of the Top 25.
While Air Force outrushed Utah 334-73 on Saturday, the Horned Frogs got outgained 176-43 on the ground against Texas.
TCU is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run against the Falcons, including back-to-back blowout wins the last two seasons. In 2005, the Frogs traveled to the Academy and laid a 48-10 beat-down on the Falcons as a one-point road underdog. Then last year, TCU crushed Air Force 38-14 as a 17-point home favorite. In that one, the Frogs led 38-0 after three quarters, during which they gave up just 77 total yards.
Despite last week’s non-cover against Texas, TCU is still on ATS runs of 18-8 overall, 8-3 as a favorite, 9-2 against teams with winning records and 16-5 when playing on grass.
Air Force is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 overall, including 0-5 ATS at home. In fact, the Falcons went 2-4 at home last year (1-5 ATS).
The over is on runs of 5-2 for TCU, 4-2 for Air Force in lined games and 2-0 in the last two series clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and OVER
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Sebastian

Sebastian Early Game
10* Over CIN/STL

Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers: TX

Hey Anybody Have Damon Roberts Plays He Could Be Found On Stufeiner.com This Guy Went 9-1 In College And Pros Last Weekend

serlaccorp said:

Hey Anybody Have Damon Roberts Plays He Could Be Found On Stufeiner.com This Guy Went 9-1 In College And Pros Last Weekend

Click to expand...

serlaccorp,

Didnt you say you were RICH at another site?

Low said:

Bought and paid for by me...ENJOY!


Larry Ness' 15* MLB Total of the Week (30-10 since Aug 7 / 113-40 this season!)

My 15* play is on Tex/Oak Over at 10:05 ET. After winning 13 of 15 games to make a

.500 season a possibility, the Rangers (69-76) were cooled off with back-to-back

losses at Detroit, scoring one run in each game. However, I like the way the Rangers

are hitting the ball, as they had averaged 6.3 RPG while winning those 13 of 15

games. By the way, the team's 30 runs at Baltimore came BEFORE its 13-2 run! The

Rangers have won nine of 15 this season against the A's, including three straight

wins, in which they scored 24 runs. That matches up well vs Oakland's starters, who

are 2-9 with a 6.33 ERA over the last 18 games. Starting tonight is Chad Gaudin and

he's had "two seasons" in '07. Prior to the break, he went 8-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 18

starts (team was 13-5). However, since the break, he's 2-8 with a 7.15 ERA in 12

starts (team is 3-9), allowing at least five ERs in EIGHT of those 12 outings! As for

Texas, Kevin Millwood (9-11, 5.31 ERA) has pitched better lately, as the team has won

his last three outings. However, all three have come at home. In 13 road starts in

'07, he's allowed 83 hits in 69.2 innings with a 5.43 ERA (he's 2-7 and the team is

4-9). MLB Total of the Week 15* Tex/Oak Over.

Good Luck...Larry

Click to expand...

Larry Ness

My Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:05 ET. Is it suicide to go against the Yanks? Last night's 4-1 win gives them seven straight wins (longest active in MLB) and a 41-19 record since the break (best in MLB). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays enter this game on a five-game losing streak. Still, I like the matchup of AJ Burnett over the rookie Ian Kennedy too much to pass this one up. Burnett has been brilliant since coming off the DL on August 12 (missed nearly six weeks due to right shoulder pain). He's 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA in six starts (team is 4-2) but that's not the whole story. He's allowed just 21 hits (never more than FOUR in any one game!) in 42.2 innings, while posting a 38-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Rookie Ian Kennedy (1-0, 2.25 ERA) makes just his third career start for New York. Kennedy was impressive in winning his debut, allowing three runs (just one earned) and five hits over seven innings in a 9-6 victory over Tampa Bay on Sept. 1. The right-hander followed that up by lasting five innings and giving up two runs and seven hits in a 3-2 win at Kansas City last Friday. The Yanks don't "win 'em all" and here's won they DON'T win!


Las Vegas Insider
Toronto Blue Jays

IndianCowboy

NCAAF
West Virginia Mountaineers @ Maryland

3 units TOTAL: Under 63.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)


The Mountaineers showed a bit of their true colors when they struggled to score early on the road against Marshall. Although they will make an exceeded effort to score more points, in a quicker fashion today, it's not happening against one of the best defenses in the country. Yes, Maryland has one of the best defenses in the country allowing their opponents a total of less than 200 yards and this carries over from last year when this team went 9-4, won the Champs Bowl over Purdue, limiting them to 7 points and won 8 of their last 10 games straight up. Keep in mind that if this game goes under, as it should, Maryland is likely to cover this game as it is their style of play (so the underdog or active dog/over principle) does not apply here. However, I would rather take my chances on a low-scoring game in Maryland rather than the Terps to cover as there could be a late WVU touchdown much like the Marshall game as it is only a matter of time before the WVU offense starts getting "theirs". Look for this game to be a 35-20 type of final (WVU defense is very overrated in my opinion much like Louisville), but this game to not reach more than 55 points today. The under is 14-6 in Mountaineers last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the under is 5-1 in Maryland's last 6 non-conference games.



MLB
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

3 units TOTAL: Over 10 (-109) (Normal)


Both these teams have had success with the opposing pitcher. The Phillies probably do not take to well for getting spanked back to back days by double-digit in runs essentially and at the same token, the Rockies hit pitchers who have their strength in fast balls very well including shelling Schillilng, Sheilds and Kendrick from yesterday - and Kendrick would have gotten shelled regardless of the fact that he went on the DL after that game as he had a horrible ERA at Coors when the Rockies faced him there as well. Durbin has pitched less than 3 innings and given up 8 runs and 9 hits to the Rockies, you think they don't have a beat on this kid? On the same token, however, Francis might be pitching well of late, but the Phillies desperately need a win here as they are 2.5 games back fo the wild card of the Padres and they have given Francis over a 10 ERA against them this year. The over is 6-0 when the total is set at this range for the Rockies, over is 8-0 when Francis faces the NL East which is a far better hitting division than the NL West and the over is 4-0 for the Phillies when the total is set at this range as well - a combination of lack of pitching and quality of hitting (although they haven't shown it of late). I have this game at 8-5 Rockies and thus the over.



MLB
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

3 units RUNLINE: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-130) (Normal)


Nothing too complicated here - the Angels can hit, the Orioles are horrible right now, the O's pitching is questionable, the Angels send their ace to the mound who tries for #17 for the 3rd time and he will get it this time and compound this with the fact that the Angels have the edge on offense and pitching, you get the run-line here. If the Angels can cover the run-line the last 2 games, 10-5 and 18-6, and that is when they had questionable pitching, why can't they do it with their ace who hasn't won a game in his last 2 starts and wants #17, to boost up his resume for the Cy Young? The Angels have some possible lineup absences today, but as long as they have Vlad, Figgins and Anderson (5 RBI's yesterday), they should be fine. Compound this with the fact that Leicester gave up 7 hits in 5 innings to the Red Sox, he will not be as lucky in getting the win today as Lackey will show up despite the O's looking to avoid the sweep. The Angels have won their last 6 road games, 11-2 in Lackey's last 13 road starts and the O's are 1-9 in their last 10 as underdogs.