service plays 9/15/07

Search

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Larry Ness<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
20* Conference GOY (perfect 7-0 start with 20* plays in FB '07!)-Saturday<o:p></o:p>

My 20* play is on Southern Miss at 6:00 ET. Jeff Bower may be the least appreciated coach in the nation. He enters his 17th season at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Hattiesburg</st1:place></st1:City> and after a 1-1 start in '07, has compiled a 113-78-1 mark. That includes taking the Golden Eagles to NINE bowls in the last 10 years (six wins, including C-USA's lone bowl win LY!). Skip Holtz has done a real nice job at <st1:place w:st="on">East Carolina</st1:place>, as he took over a school which had gone 3-20 in '03 and '04 and is 13-13 since '05. More impressively, his ATS mark is 19-7! To open '07, the Pirates went into <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Blacksburg</st1:place></st1:City> and played Va Tech well, losing 17-7 as almost a four-TD underdog. They then beat <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North Carolina</st1:place></st1:State> 34-31 on a last-second FG last Saturday, for the school's first win over the Tar Heels since 1975 and just the SECOND in school history! QB Patrick Pinkney was great LW (406 YP and three TDs) but he gets little help from a rushing game that's averaged just 103 YPG (3.0 per). While the Pirates are home, they'll have a tough time with Southern Miss. East Carolina could easily be 'flat' off the North Carolina win plus Southern Miss will surely be focused after losing to EC last year at home! The Pirates scored on a 4th down play from the two-yard line, to send the game into OT with 13 seconds remaining. EC then won 20-17 in OT. That ended a five-game winning streak in the series for Southern Miss, in which it had outscored EC by the combined score of 174-66! QB Jeremy Young is now a senior and RB Damion Fletcher is off a freshman year in which he gained 1,388 YR (5.0 per) and scored 11 TDs. Revenge is a major motivating force here and Bower leads his team to yet another conference win.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
C-USA Game of the Year
20* Southern Miss.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Gavazzi Steamrollers


<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">5% MICHIGAN ST</st1:address></st1:Street>

Unfortunately, I did not heed the advice about getting “dogged” in my article entitled “Don’t get DOGGED” available under “Free Stuff” on this site. Our 5% play Northwestern won but did not cover 36-31 with the final falling above the week 1 line but below the week 2 line. This week, however, I see plenty of value as we return to a Spartan team who won as a 5% Steamroller in week 1, 55-18, over UAB when they out gained the Blazers a balanced 593 to 226. Look for more of the same today against a Pitt team who could gain just 321 yards in defeating Grambling LW. That was even worse than- the 326 yards they gained against lowly <st1:place w:st="on">E. Mich</st1:place> in week 1. A major reason for this is the fact they have lost their #1 QB, Stull, #1 WR Kinder and have an unsettled OL. Now they must step way up in class to face a rejuvenated Spartan team who is allowing just 30 RYPG on 1.0 YPR. Meanwhile, RB’s Ringer and Caulcrick are balancing the offense behind QB Hoyer who is averaging 220 YPG on 68% C. LY State rolled Pitt 38-10, running over them for 335 yards. Mark that down as a potential final for today, though the margin may be more.


3% <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">OREGON</st1:place></st1:State>

Seldom do you get a week 3 (2-0) SU ATS HF who covered by 39 points LW who is not a public favorite. Yet, due to the 0-2 SU start by <st1:State w:st="on">Michigan</st1:State>, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Oregon</st1:place></st1:State> gets little credit for their dismantling of the Wolves. Rather, we get a fair price because of <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Fresno</st1:place></st1:City>’s reputation which was only enhanced by a 3 OT loss at A&M LW. The perception is that HC Hill will have his minions in bounce back mode against yet another Big Boy while <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Oregon</st1:place></st1:State> will fall flat following their performance in The Big House. The truth is that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Fresno</st1:City></st1:place> is a very emotional team which feeds on it’s most recent result and stands 4-16 ATS off a loss. Most indicative for our purposes is the fact that <st1:City w:st="on">Fresno</st1:City> was out rushed 318-139 by A&M LW while the balanced <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State> attack was Steamrolling <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Michigan</st1:place></st1:State> for 624 yards including a 331-144 overland advantage. Momentum works at a fair price equivalent to that of week 1.

3% VA TECH

We switch to bounce back mode to back this week 3 National power house who enters at 0-2 ATS following a 7-48 embarrassment at LSU LW. In (2) games they have been out rushed 439-104. Enter the perfect victim, the Ohio U. Bobcats. To rejuvenate the offense HC Beamer will insert true frosh QB Taylor as the starter. Look for an offensive explosion today. The Bobcats have a poor recent history. LY Ohio scored a combined 13 points on a combined 49 RY in losing to Rutgers and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Missouri</st1:place></st1:State>. With graduation of all their starting LB’s, look for things to get worse. LW, they allowed LA Lafayette to total 534 yards including 277 RY on 5.5 YPR. Look for teams to return to a September form which finds <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Ohio</st1:State></st1:place> to be a recent 9-21 ATS while VA Tech is 34-15 ATS vs. Non cons. Big time Bounce Back Steamroller at a price below that of week 1.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
DR.BOB

3 Star Selection<o:p></o:p>

***MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Cincinnati won for me last week as a 3-Star Best Bet in their 34-3 romp over Oregon State, but the situation is not good for the Bearcats as they hit the road for the first time and Cincy is now overrated. The Bearcats have won their two games by a combined 93- 6 score, but they are averaging a +4.5 in turnover margin, which certainly isn’t going to continue. Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:place></st1:State> last week. The Redhawks upset <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Ball</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record. My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week). <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City>, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Miami</st1:place></st1:City>’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

3 Star Selection<o:p></o:p>

***<st1:State w:st="on">KANSAS</st1:State> (-23.0) 42 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toledo</st1:place></st1:City> 9<o:p></o:p>

04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Kansas was very impressive in their 52-7 opening day win over a decent Central Michigan team and the Jayhawks followed that up with a 62-0 rout of SE Louisiana last Saturday. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State> is no fluke. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled a bit last year with just 3 returning starters, but they look as good as the 2004 and 2005 defensive units, which had an average rating of 0.9 yards per play better than average. This year’s team finally has an offense to compliment their defense, as sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing has looked sharp while the rushing attack has been better than average as well. Toledo was a bad team last season and they don’t appear to be any better this year after getting blown out by Purdue 24-52 at home in week 1 and then losing 31-52 at Central Michigan last week – the same Central Michigan team that Kansas beat 52-7. The Rockets have averaged just 5.0 yppl while allowing a horrendous 7.2 yppl in their two games and they won’t be able to compete with <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State> in this game. The Jayhawks apply to a very strong 68-15-1 ATS fundamental indicator, a 110-43-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 46-8 ATS momentum situation. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toledo</st1:place></st1:City>, meanwhile, is just 12-22-3 ATS on the road under coach Todd Amstutz. My ratings favor <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State> by 23 ½ points and I’d favor the Jayhawks by 37 points if I only used this year’s games instead of incorporating my pre-season ratings. The Jayhawks certainly have incentive after dominating last year’s game against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toledo</st1:place></st1:City> only to lose in overtime thanks to -5 in turnover margin. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

2 Star Selection<o:p></o:p>

**<st1:State w:st="on">KENTUCKY</st1:State> 40 <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City></st1:place> (-6.5) 37<o:p></o:p>

04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
<st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City>’s offense is as explosive as ever, but the Cardinals allowed 42 points on 564 yards at 10.3 yards per play in their 58-42 win over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Middle</st1:placeName> <st1:placeName w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> last week. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State> has averaged 301 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play in the first two games and senior quarterback Andre Woodson is among the nation’s best quarterbacks after rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average last season with 31 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (he’s now gone 206 passes without throwing a pick). Kentucky will give up tons of yardage on the ground to Louisville but the Wildcats’ secondary is much better this season and the ‘Cats have certainly played better defensively than Louisville has so far this season. My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City> by 5 points, but <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State> has actually been the better team so far this season. The reason for the play is not the line value but rather a number of strong situations that favor the Wildcats in this game. <st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State> applies to a 48-8-1 ATS subset of a 144-63-3 ATS home momentum situation while <st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City> applies to a negative 93-167-10 ATS situation that plays against road favorites coming off a home game in which they allowed a lot of points (applied against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cal</st1:place></st1:State> last week). I’ll take <st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State> in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and I’d make <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State></st1:place> a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

Strong Opinion<o:p></o:p>

Mississippi St 19 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">AUBURN</st1:place></st1:City> (-13.0) 26<o:p></o:p>

09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Mississippi State came through with a good effort last week at Tulane despite being in a very negative situation and I expect the Bulldogs to build off of that performance against an overrated Auburn team that is already 0-2 ATS. The Tigers lost straight up to South Florida, which really isn’t much of an upset, and that loss sets up <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Auburn</st1:place></st1:City> in a negative 9-43-1 ATS situation and a negative 30-66 ATS situation. Both of those situations are based on last week’s upset loss and the record is 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> looked horrible in their opening 0-45 loss to LSU, but that loss doesn’t look so bad now that LSU just dominated Virginia Tech 48-7. In fact, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Miss</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> held LSU to just 4.8 yards per play while Virginia Tech’s top notch defense gave up 599 yards at 8.3 yppl to the Tigers. <st1:placeName w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType>’s offense performed pretty well offensively last week, averaging a solid 5.8 yppl, but that unit is still below average and will probably have some trouble moving the ball against a good <st1:place w:st="on">Auburn</st1:place> defense. However, <st1:placeName w:st="on">Miss</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> is good defensively and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Auburn</st1:place></st1:City> has struggled on offense in their first two games against good defensive teams (just 4.3 yppl). The only negative is that <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Auburn</st1:place></st1:City> is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a loss. My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on">Auburn</st1:City> by just 10 points and I’ll consider <st1:placeName w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

Strong Opinion<o:p></o:p>

UCLA (-14.0) 30 <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">UTAH</st1:State></st1:place> 10<o:p></o:p>

02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Utah’s offense went from a potentially potent attack to a worse than average unit when top back Matt Asiata and talented quarterback Brian Johnson both were injured in a game 1 loss to Oregon State. Backup quarterback Tommy Grady isn’t mobile enough to run the option elements of the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> offense and the Utes don’t have a back that can run well without the benefit of the option’s deception. Grady was an Oklahoma transfer but he hasn’t shown any of his promise in 1 ½ games so far, as he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play this season. UCLA’s defense is one of the better units in the nation and they should have no trouble shutting down the crippled Utes’ attack. UCLA, meanwhile, should be able to pound the ball up the middle against a soft <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> defense front that lost two run-stuffing tackles to graduation and now are without senior DT Gabe Long, who suffered an MCL injury last week. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> has surrendered an average of 297 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play in two games while UCLA has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing play in their two games. Talented Bruins’ quarterback Ben Olsen has done a pretty good job throwing the football (6.4 yards per pass play), but <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> defends the pass well – although UCLA probably won’t need to throw the ball much given their projected domination running the ball. The Bruins apply to a very strong 131-53-3 ATS fundamental indicator while <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> applies to a negative 30-64-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset home loss to Air Force. My ratings favor UCLA by 12 points and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
BIG <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">AL</st1:State></st1:place>
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
FULL SERVICE CLIENTS


5 * <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State> <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Louisville</st1:place></st1:City>. Steve Kragthorpe's Cardinals struggled last Thursday against <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Middle</st1:placeName> <st1:placeName w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place>. The Cards won, but surrendered 42 points in the process. That does not bode well for Saturday night's game against rival <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State>, whose offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Wildcats own blowout wins over <st1:placeName w:st="on">Kent</st1:placeName> <st1:placeName w:st="on">State</st1:placeName> (56-20) and <st1:place w:st="on">Eastern Kentucky</st1:place> (50-10) and fall into a super system that is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1981. What we want to do is play on any home dog getting 2+ points that scored 43+ points in its previous 2 games, provided it did not give up 35 or more points in its previous game. Take <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:place></st1:State> plus the points.


3* <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State> <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies plus the points over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Ohio</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place>. Last week, we used <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> as a home dog over <st1:placeName w:st="on">Boise</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType>, and Tyrone Willingham's men snapped <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Boise</st1:place></st1:City>'s 15-game win streak. Can <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State> win back-to-back big games? My database indicates that the Huskies will do just that. Consider that, since 1980, road teams are a horrific 5-25 ATS in their 3rd game of the season, if they enter off two home wins, and their foe is off back to back SU/ATS wins, provided our road team did not score more than 37 points in its previous game (<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Ohio</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> scored just 20). And if our home team is off an upset win, then our 25-5 stat zooms to an almost perfect 11-1 ATS. Take <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State>.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

3* Georgia Tech <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Boston</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">College</st1:placeType></st1:place>. Ga Tech has two blowout wins thus far in 2007: 33-3 over Notre Dame, and 69-14 over Samford. Now, Chan Gailey's men fall into a terrific system that's cashed 100% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any unrested, single-digit home favorite that scored 60+ points, if it's matched up against a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins. With Boston College indeed off two SU/ATS wins (over NC State and Wake Forest), we'll fade Jeff Jagodzinski's men and lay the points with Georgia Tech.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Opinion Notre Dame <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Michigan</st1:State></st1:place>. Of course the storyline of this game will be the fall from grace of College Football's two most storied programs. Notre Dame has been embarassed by both Georgia Tech and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Penn</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place>, and has rushed for negative yardage on the season (67 rushes for -8 yards). And offensive guru Charlie Weis' men have yet to score an offensive touchdown. But <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Michigan</st1:State></st1:place>'s performance has been even worse (if that's possible). The Wolves lost 34-32 to Appalachian State, and then were destroyed 39-7 by <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State></st1:place>, as the Ducks rushed for 331 yards on 51 carries. Clearly, Ron English's defense resembles swiss cheese more than the impenetrable unit that took the field for much of last season. But regardless of the storylines, one thing has remained constant in this rivalry over the last 27 years: the underdog covers! And if the underdog is NOT going into revenge, it's a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. Last year, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Michigan</st1:State></st1:place> blasted Notre Dame 47-21. Look for the Irish to avenge that defeat on Saturday. Take the points<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>

Opinion <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:place></st1:City> <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane plus the points over BYU, as <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:place></st1:City> falls into a Game 2 System of mine that has cashed 60% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any rested home dog off a win in Game 1. And <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:place></st1:City> also falls into a 2nd system of mine that is 69-29 ATS which also involves playing on rested teams in Game 2. After leaving his assistant coaching position at <st1:City w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:City> for the head coach job at Rice, Todd Graham returned this season to take the top job (following Steve Kragthorpe's departure for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Louisville</st1:place></st1:City>). Graham did a super job last year at Rice (the Owls won and covered their final six regular season games), and led that school to its first bowl bid in 45 years. Look for Graham to have a super year at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tulsa</st1:place></st1:City>. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>

Opinion <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>

<o:p> </o:p>
At 7 pm, our selection is on <st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State>, as the Jayhawks fall into several 'momentum' systems of mine following their 52-7 and 60-0 wins over Central Michigan and <st1:place w:st="on">SE Louisiana</st1:place>. Now, the Jayhawks will try to avenge their 37-31 loss at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toledo</st1:place></st1:City> in Week 3 last season. And home favorites priced from -2 to -33 points off a shutout win of 40+ points are a super 79% ATS since 1980 vs. an opponent off a loss. With the Rockets off a 52-31 blowout loss at Central Michigan, we'll fade <st1:City w:st="on">Toledo</st1:City> and lay the big number with <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State>.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:placeName w:st="on">Robert</st1:placeName> Ferringo<o:p></o:p>

COLLEGE SELECTIONS<o:p></o:p>

4-Unit Play. Take #133 <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> (+7.5) over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State></st1:place> (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
You have to fade the national champs on general principle. And when you factor in that this is a rivalry game that has been decided by an average of 6.7 points over the last 10 years and 4.0 over the last three this is simply too many points. The home team is just 2-5 in this series and six of the past nine meetings have been decided by four points or less. Also, the Vols are 3-0 ATS as SEC dogs of 8.0 or more over the past decade and I think they’re better prepared for this game. UT has played two quality opponents in Cal and Southern Miss, while the Gators have beaten up cream puffs. We’ll take the points and the team with a chip on its shoulder.

4-Unit Play. Take #166 Alabama (-3) over Arkansas (6:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Last year the Razorbacks had a much better team and were playing at home, but barely escaped with an OT win over the Tide. This year <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arkansas</st1:place></st1:State> is not as good and is playing on the road against an improved team with revenge. I just don’t see how <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Alabama</st1:place></st1:State> doesn’t win this game – and win it big. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arkansas</st1:place></st1:State> simply is not as good as they were last year and the Tide is better. There is no lookahead situation here and the motivation of back-to-back OT losses is enough for ‘Bama to take this one.

4-Unit Play. Take #155 Southern Mississippi (-1) over East Carolina (6 p.m.SaturdaySept. 15)
Right now is the perfect time to fade <st1:place w:st="on">East Carolina</st1:place>, coming off an impressive game against a poor UNC team. Southern Miss, on the other hand, got slapped around by <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State>. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t the much better team here. The Eagles are 9-2 against the Pirates since 1996, with SMU winning five of the last six by an average score of 32-14. Southern Miss is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six at <st1:place w:st="on">East Carolina</st1:place>. The Pirates stole a fluke win last year on the road, and I think the Eagles get revenge this year with a strong showing.

3-Unit Play. Take #187 <st1:State w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:State> (+10) over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1:place> (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Any time you have a team that can run the ball and play the type of defense that the Lobos do you’ll happily take the points. I don’t trust Willie Tuitama at QB for the Wildcats, and that Lobos secondary is one of the best that <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arizona</st1:place></st1:State> will see all year. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:place></st1:State> is 19-10-1 ATS as a road dog over the last seven years and 10-4 ATS in the last three.

3-Unit Play. Take #167 Boston College (+7) over Georgia Tech (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I simply think this is too many points in a game featuring two good teams. Also, I trust Matt Ryan more than I do Taylor Bennett and after blowout wins over <st1:placeName w:st="on">Wake</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">Forest</st1:placeType> and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">N.C.</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> I think that the Eagles have proven more than the Jackets have with wins over sad-sacks Notre Dame and Samford. This should be a grinder, one that I think B.C. can win, and thus there is value in taking the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #149 UCLA (-14) over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Utah</st1:State></st1:place> (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
We’re going to keep going to the well until the well is dry with the Bruins. They hammered the Utes 31-10 last year in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">California</st1:place></st1:State>, and while I do think that playing on the road will be much more difficult I also think that a veteran UCLA squad will remain focused. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Utah</st1:place></st1:State> has just been decimated by injuries, and will be without four offensive starters – their starting QB, RB, WR, and RT – and their young defense has gotten manhandled over the past two weeks.

2-Unit Play. Take #129 Eastern Michigan (+14.5) over <st1:place w:st="on">Northern Illinois</st1:place> (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is a lot of points to overcome for two offenses that don’t score much. Northern Illinois is only averaging 17 points per game and can’t be feeling too good about themselves after a loss to <st1:place w:st="on">Southern Illinois</st1:place>. EMU has a wealth of experience and I think could be a surprise team in the MAC. I think they could win this one outright, and thus there’s value taking the points. Finally, the Eagles are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to NIU.

1-Unit Play. Take #169 Duke (+16.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Northwestern proved last week that it doesn’t deserve to be a double-digit dog and now they’re laying a ton of points to a team desperate for a win. The Wildcats are just 2-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2001 and will be without their stud running back Tyrell Sutton this week and Duke has covered in their of their last four trips to Chicago.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Marc Lawrence Playbook<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
<st1:City w:st="on">MIAMI</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">OHIO</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City> by 3<o:p></o:p>

5<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET GA TECH over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Boston</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">College</st1:placeType></st1:place> by 20<o:p></o:p>
4<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET AUBURN over Mississippi St by 24<o:p></o:p>
3<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET NAVY over Ball St by 16<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State> over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">SYRACUSE</st1:City></st1:place> by 15<o:p></o:p>
UCONN over Temple by 34
N CAROLINA over Virginia by 5
PENN ST over Buffalo by 34
PURDUE over C Michigan by 24
VA TECH over Ohio U by 24
Iowa over IOWA ST by 15
KANSAS over Toledo by 24
NO ILLINOIS over E Michigan by 21
WAKE FOREST over Army by 22<o:p></o:p>
VANDERBILT over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:State></st1:place> by 5<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">FLORIDA</st1:State> over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State></st1:place> by 3<o:p></o:p>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">MICHIGAN</st1:State></st1:place> over Notre Dame by 10.
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">OKLAHOMA</st1:State></st1:place> over <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Utah St</st1:address></st1:Street> by 44.
<st1:State w:st="on">OREGON</st1:State> over <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Fresno St</st1:address></st1:Street> by <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">13
MICHIGAN ST</st1:address></st1:Street> over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1:place> by 13.
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Ohio St</st1:address></st1:Street> over <st1:State w:st="on">WASHINGTON</st1:State> by 4
<st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State> over C <st1:State w:st="on">FLORIDA</st1:State> by 15
<st1:State w:st="on">CALIFORNIA</st1:State> over La Tech by 38
Ucla over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">UTAH</st1:State></st1:place> by 10.
INDIANA over Akron by 16
Southern Miss over EAST CAROLINA by 3
MISSOURI over W Michigan by 16
WASHINGTON ST over Idaho by 27
Houston over TULANE by 13
Louisville over KENTUCKY by 6
ALABAMA over Arkansas by 1
Texas Tech over RICE by 27
Southern Cal over NEBRASKA by 13
N MEXICO ST over Utep by 10
BOISE ST over Wyoming by 16
Byu over TULSA by 7
Hawaii over UNLV by 20
NORTHWESTERN over Duke by 16
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
CKO Gold Sheet<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
10 *<st1:State w:st="on">INDIANA</st1:State> over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Akron</st1:City></st1:place><o:p></o:p>

Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 39 - Akron 16

Indiana HC Bill Lynch has done an excellent job getting the Hoosiers mentally
ready to play this season in the wake of former coach Terry Hoeppner's death.
The team is focused and playing with purpose. Talent-wise, this is one of
the most gifted Hoosier squads in years, as maturing soph QB Kellen Lewis has
thrown for 3 scores in each of the first two games as his receiving stars
James Hardy (6-7; 51 catches LY) & James Bailey (6-2; 40 recs. LY) have been
augmented by emergence of soph smurf wideout Ray Fisher (9 catches vs. W.
Mich.). <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Akron</st1:place></st1:City> attack has been constricted by delayed development of soph QBs
Chris Jaquemain & lefty scrambler Carlton Jackson. Neither has distinguished
himself, and Zip HC Brookhart has also been hampered by an OL that has 4 new
starters (2 are RS frosh, another a soph). Two-TD spread not enough.

10 *NORTH CAROLINA over Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
*NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Virginia 13

Long-time ACC scouts are extremely bullish on chemistry-rich, hungry UNC
squad that's thrilled to be playing for upbeat, respected 1st-year mentor
Butch Davis after suffering through 5 years of bumbling, brutish John
Bunting. Tar Heels quick-learning, accurate 6-3 RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 344
YP vs. E. Carolina) will burn a <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Virginia</st1:place></st1:State> 2ndary that has tendency to give up
too many big plays. Conversely, Cavs frustrated HC Groh says he will
continue to rotate his QBs (inserted true frosh Lalich), since soph
triggerman Sewell has seriously struggled in early going without top WR
Ogletree (out for year). Either QB will get pressure from hard-charging UNC
frosh DT Austin (rated nation's top prep DLman). So, look for rejuvenated &
revenge-minded Heels (lost 23-0 in Charlottesville LY) to cover small number
vs. poor-travelin' UVA squad that's 1-9 as a road dog since 2004.

10 *ALABAMA over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*ALABAMA 28 - Arkansas 13

SEC scouts say it won't take much for HC Nick Saban to get the Crimson Tide
ready for this match vs. Arkansas, which won LY's meeting 24-23 in OT in
Fayetteville, thanks to three missed Alabama FGs in regulation and a blown
PAT in the extra session! Moreover, improving jr. QB John Parker Wilson, who
was making his first road start in that contest, provides the Tide with an
important balance edge on offense. Razorbacks had last week off to prepare
more plays for their versatile, excellent RB duo of McFadden & F. Jones.
However, with the health of star WR Marcus Monk (knee) up in the air, Saban
can focus his revamped, NFL-style, Bama defense (255-pound ILB Prince Hall
returned from suspension last week) vs. Hogs' ground game. In the first of
several SEC "crucials" for Saban's crew, Red Elephants get their revenge.


10 *FLA. ATLANTIC over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State></st1:place>
(at Dolphin Stadium)
Late Score Forecast:
*FLA. ATLANTIC 29 - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State></st1:place> 27

Acknowledge FAU's recent woes outside of Sun Belt, failing to cover last 8 in
role. But Owls usually on road for those paydays (including the last 7), and
now get rare chance to host BCS conference foe in south <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State>. And Howard
Schnellenberger's troops are catching <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:place></st1:State> at a good time. That's
because Gophers in adjustment phase for 1st-year HC Tim Brewster, with RS
frosh QB Andy Weber still getting feel for Minny's new spread attack.
Meanwhile, early efforts vs. modest MAC opposition have underlined concerns
about Gopher "D," especially suspect 2ndary already torched by undynamic
Bowling Green & Miami-O attacks. No reason maturing FAU "O" and emerging soph
QB Rusty Smith can't do same. And vet (10 starters back), quick-footed Owl
"D" that put clamps on potent Middle Tennessee in opener not a bad matchup
vs. young UM QB Weber, making first road start.
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games)<o:p></o:p>
PURDUE (-20) vs. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Central</st1:placeName> <st1:placeName w:st="on">Michigan</st1:placeName>
<st1:placeName w:st="on">IOWA</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType></st1:place> (+17) vs. Iowa
KANSAS (-22) vs. Toledo
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+19) vs.Texas-Longhorns <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
THE GOLD SHEET<o:p></o:p>
Late Telephone Selections
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
SUPER POWER 7 <o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Alabama</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>

Top Play <o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State> <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">El Paso</st1:place></st1:City><o:p></o:p>

Regular Plays
Virginia Tech
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
<st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">Ohio</st1:State>
Southern Cal vs. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Nebraska</st1:place></st1:State> Under<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Gold Sheet<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

AUBURN
by 24 over Mississippi State
MICHIGAN STATE by 18 over Pittsburgh
BOSTON COLLEGE by 3 over Georgia Tech
UTEP by 4 over New Mexico State<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State> 22 - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">SYRACUSE</st1:City></st1:place> 17<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">CONNECTICUT</st1:State> 46 - <st1:City w:st="on">Temple</st1:City> 10
<st1:State w:st="on">NORTH CAROLINA</st1:State> 26 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Virginia</st1:place></st1:State> 19<o:p></o:p>
<st1:placeName w:st="on">PENN</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> 51 - Buffalo 10
VANDERBILT 30 - <st1:State w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:State> 20
AUBURN 30 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Mississippi</st1:place></st1:State> State 6<o:p></o:p>
PURDUE 43 - Central Michigan 17
<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> 23 - MIAMI-OHIO 19
<st1:State w:st="on">VIRGINIA</st1:State> TECH 36 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State> 10<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">Iowa</st1:State> 23 - <st1:State w:st="on">IOWA</st1:State> STATE 13
<st1:State w:st="on">KANSAS</st1:State> 51 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Toledo</st1:place></st1:City> 23<o:p></o:p>
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 30 - Eastern Michigan 10
WAKE FOREST 40 - Army 13
FLORIDA 27 - Tennessee 24
MICHIGAN 24 - Notre Dame 20
OKLAHOMA 54 - Utah State 3<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on">OREGON</st1:State> 38 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Fresno</st1:place></st1:City> State 17<o:p></o:p>
<st1:placeName w:st="on">MICHIGAN</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> 35 - <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City> 17
<st1:placeName w:st="on">Ohio</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> 17 - <st1:State w:st="on">WASHINGTON</st1:State> 16
<st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State> 29 - UCF 16
<st1:State w:st="on">CALIFORNIA</st1:State> 48 - <st1:State w:st="on">Louisiana</st1:State> Tech 23
Ucla 26 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UTAH</st1:place></st1:State> 10<o:p></o:p>
*NAVY 30 - <st1:placeName w:st="on">Ball</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> 27
*<st1:State w:st="on">INDIANA</st1:State> 37 - <st1:City w:st="on">Akron</st1:City> 16
*<st1:place w:st="on">EAST CAROLINA</st1:place> 28 - Southern Miss 24<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:State w:st="on">MISSOURI</st1:State> 49 - Western <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Michigan</st1:place></st1:State> 24<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:placeName w:st="on">WASHINGTON</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> 38 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Idaho</st1:place></st1:State> <o:p></o:p>
*<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City> 42 - TULANE 23<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:State w:st="on">KENTUCKY</st1:State> 42 - <st1:City w:st="on">Louisville</st1:City> 41
*<st1:State w:st="on">ALABAMA</st1:State> 27 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Arkansas</st1:place></st1:State> 16<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:placeName w:st="on">Boston</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">College</st1:placeType> 30 - <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">GEORGIA</st1:place></st1:country-region> TECH 27<o:p></o:p>
*NORTHWESTERN 35 - Duke 14
*Southern Cal 23 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">NEBRASKA</st1:place></st1:State> 17<o:p></o:p>
*Utep 31 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">NEW MEXICO</st1:place></st1:State> STATE 27<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:placeName w:st="on">BOISE</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> 23 - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Wyoming</st1:State></st1:place> 17<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:City w:st="on">TULSA</st1:City> 27 - Byu 24
*<st1:State w:st="on">Hawaii</st1:State> 41 - UNLV 20
*<st1:placeName w:st="on">Florida</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> 24 - <st1:State w:st="on">COLORADO</st1:State> 23
*<st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> STATE 48 - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">San Diego</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> 13<o:p></o:p>
*<st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> 25 - <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:State></st1:place> 22<o:p></o:p>
*STANFORD 27 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">San Jose</st1:place></st1:City> State 23 <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
MIAMI-FLORIDA 45 - <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> Intl. 3
*<st1:State w:st="on">TEXAS</st1:State> A&M 38 - La.-Monroe 7 (FIRST MEETING)
*<st1:placeName w:st="on">ARKANSAS</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> 34 - Smu 28
*<st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> 29 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">FLORIDA</st1:place></st1:State> ATLANTIC 23 <o:p></o:p>
*LSU 49 - Middle <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State> State 3

<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Winning Points<o:p></o:p>

4* Army
3* <st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State>
2* <st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State>
2* <st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State>
2* Vanderbilt
2* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Wyoming</st1:State></st1:place><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES<o:p></o:p>

<st1:State w:st="on">KANSAS</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on">Toledo</st1:City> RATING: 1 62-13
<st1:State w:st="on">MISSOURI</st1:State> over Western Michigan RATING: 1 48-17
<st1:State w:st="on">NEW MEXICO</st1:State> over <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> RATING: 2 27-24
<st1:placeName w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">STATE</st1:placeType> over San Diego St RATING: 3 58-10
<st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> over <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> RATING: 4 20-23
<st1:State w:st="on">NORTH CAROLINA</st1:State> over <st1:State w:st="on">Virginia</st1:State> RATING: 4 28-13
CENTRAL FLORIDA over <st1:State w:st="on">Texas</st1:State> RATING: 5 20-31
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">MISSISSIPPI</st1:State></st1:place> over Vanderbilt RATING: 5 24-17<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Power Plays <o:p></o:p>

4* <st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State>
4* Purdue
4* Virginia Tech
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Iowa</st1:State>
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State>
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Oregon</st1:State>
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Alabama</st1:State>
4* UTEP
4* BYU
4* FSU
4* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Arizona</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Power Sweep

4 Purdue
3 Vanderbilt
3 <st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State>
2 <st1:State w:st="on">Illinois</st1:State>
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">2 Miss St</st1:address></st1:Street>
2 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iowa</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Underdog POW<o:p></o:p>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">Ohio</st1:State></st1:place><o:p></o:p>


Spylock

5* <st1:State w:st="on">Nebraska</st1:State> +10
1* <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> -3
1* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Ball</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> +7<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Mike Neri

5* <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Sports Reporter

Super Best Bet<o:p></o:p>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>

Best Bets<o:p></o:p>
Purdue<o:p></o:p>
Southern Miss
USC
Florida <st1:place w:st="on">Atlantic</st1:place><o:p></o:p>
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
RedSheet<o:p></o:p>

89 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Kansas</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
89 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>

<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">88</st1:City> Mich. St</st1:address></st1:Street>.<o:p></o:p>
88 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Indiana</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">88 Arizona St</st1:address></st1:Street>.<o:p></o:p>

87 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Missouri</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
87 <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">New Mexico</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
87 Penn State<o:p></o:p>
87Texas Tech<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Ace-Ace / Alan Eastman

4 Usc -9'
3 <st1:State w:st="on">Mich</st1:State> -7'
4 <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Kansas</st1:State></st1:place> -24<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Phil Steel's Private Play Hot Line

ACC Play of The Week

Georgia Tech<o:p></o:p>
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o:p> </o:p>[/FONT]
Doc's Sports

6* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Fla</st1:State></st1:place> Atlantic +7.5<o:p></o:p>
5* <st1:State w:st="on">Wash.</st1:State> +4
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Maryland</st1:State> +16.5
4* Central Fla +19
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Tenn</st1:State> +7.5
4* <st1:State w:st="on">Indiana</st1:State> -13.5
4* UL Monroe +23
3* <st1:State w:st="on">Neb</st1:State> +9.5
3* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Iowa</st1:State></st1:place> -17.5<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Kelso Sturgeon

Chairmans Club

10 units Fla Atl +7.5<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Pure Lock
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Members Play
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Hawaii</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Greg Roberts<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Top Plays
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Purdue -22 Over Central Michigan (Favorite Game)
<st1:placeName w:st="on">Michigan</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType> -10.5 Over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1:place> (Favorite Game)<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p>
</o:p>

Greg Roberts <o:p></o:p>

THE BARKING DOG

TEXAS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY ONLY 6

Bevo has been anything but impressive so far as they were outgained by Arkansas St. in their opener and shutout in the 1st half last week vs. TCU. Now they take their lethargic offense on the road to take on a Knight's squad that's been buoyed by a confidence building win over <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">N.C.</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place> in their opener. The emotion will also be at fever pitch with the opening of their new Bright House Networks Stadium on national TV and the fact they were able to lure a big BCS school to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Orlando</st1:place></st1:City>. The tailgating will start early and last well into the night and the menu item of choice - Bar-B-Q steer butt of course!
<st1:State w:st="on">TEXAS</st1:State> - 27 CENTRAL <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">FLORIDA</st1:State></st1:place> 21<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
THE ROAST OF THE WEEK

PURDUE OVER CENTRAL <st1:State w:st="on">MICHIGAN</st1:State> BY 35

A band of Chippewa's show up at the buffet table this week but they won't be sharing a peace pipe with the hard hat riveters of <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">West Lafayette</st1:place></st1:City>. The Curtis Painter led Purdue offense has already posted back-to-back 52 point efforts and to hang another on the tribe should come easy considering the Injun's have allowed 83 points in their 2 outings thus far. The <st1:place w:st="on">Central Michigan</st1:place> secondary has been roasted to the tune of 68% completions and 345 yards per game through the air. Joe Tiller's squad loves the momentum winning can bring as his squad is 29-11 against the spread after a win. With the Chips only 3-9 against the spread on the Big 10 road don't close the bar before I have another Boilermaker!
PURDUE - 52 CENTRAL <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">MICHIGAN</st1:place></st1:State> - 17<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Gameday<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
4* <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Hawaii</st1:place></st1:State><o:p></o:p>
3* <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placeName w:st="on">Mich</st1:placeName> <st1:placeType w:st="on">State</st1:placeType></st1:place><o:p></o:p>
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Brandon Lang


25 DIME

MICHIGAN STATE

5 DIME

Vanderbilt
Miami Ohio
Army
E.Carolina
Florida Atlantic

Free Pick - Nebraska
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Chris Copeland

Tulsa
Virginia Tech.
Southern Miss
Hawaii
Auburn
Hoston
und Nebraska/USC
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
RAS Right Angle Sports

BYU at Tulsa (Over 48) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #179-180

New offensive coordinator Gus Malzhan has installed an uptempo no-huddle spread offense at Tulsa. Unlike last year at Arkansas, Malzhan has full support from his head coach and it will not be long before the scoreboards get lit up. The offense is designed to score quickly and get in as many plays as possible. Coaches will even go as far as to lobby officials to get the ball spotted and ready for play quickly after each down. It does not hurt that Tulsa returns an all conference three year starter in senior QB Paul Smith to run the show. The Golden Hurricane ran 86 plays (2005 NCAA average was 70.6) in their season opener, racking up 35 points and 523 total yards while playing conservatively with a big lead late. This is despite only four returning starters on offense and playing their first ever game in the new system. They since have had a BYE week to fine tune things and should be ready to roll this week in home opening revenge situation vs BYU. The Tulsa defense lost four of their top five tacklers from last season and were scorched for 49 points by the BYU offense last year. Fortunately for them, they faced a one dimensional offense vs UL Monroe in season opener but will face a much more difficult task vs BYU's balanced offense this week.
Everyone expected a significant dropoff in BYU's offensive production this year with the loss of QB John Beck, top four receivers, and top RB, but the offense has looked solid so far despite facing what could be two top 25 defenses in Arizona and UCLA. New QB Max Hall is getting rave reviews for his play and has already passed for 679 yards and 4 touchdowns in first two games. BYU is averaging 415 yards of total offense, but only 18.5ppg due to turnovers, penalties, and other bad breaks stalling drives in or near the red zone. They are likely to breakout here against a much weaker defense than what they have seen thus far. BYU lost a starting defensive lineman and starting safety to season ending injuries in fall camp as well as a reseve safety who was scheduled to move into a starting role. So far the defense has performed well above expectations but they have had some favorable circumstances. Arizona was playing their first game in a new offensive system on the road, and UCLA played very conservatively after jumping out to a 20-0 lead. Last year's meeting between these two saw 73 points scored. With Tulsa's uptempo style both teams will get even more opportunities this year, so even if these two good QB's do not match last years offensive efficiency, the scoring should still easily get into the fifties. Play the over.

RAS Official Play
2 units Over 48


UTEP (+6) at New Mexico State - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #175-176

The Miners went 16-6 in 2004 & 2005 but are somewhat under the radar this year after an underacheiving 5-7 season in 2006. Redshirt freshman QB Trever Vittatoe, the biggest question mark on this year's squad, is coming along nicely. He has gone up against two difficult defenses in his first two starts, vs New Mexico and at Texas Tech. His numbers have not been spectacular, but has not made any mistakes (0 interceptions), and showed marked improvement from game one to game two. Against NMSU he will face by far the easiest defense he has seen to date. Vittatoe is surrounded by a top notch group of receivers that boasts two Florida State transfers in Lorne Sam and Fred Rouse, along with mainstay senior Joe West. Two Pac-10 transfers man the tailback position, most notably hard running senior Marcus Thomas who sat out the season opener due to a one game suspension. The offensive line is much improved as evidenced by the 215 yards gained (4.7ypc) on the ground vs Texas Tech last week. Last year the team's season high was 135 vs Tulane and they averaged 2.4ypc for the season. UTEP was actually tied with Texas Tech going into the 4th quarter as a +25 point underdog and are now 2-0 ATS. Before the season head coach Mike Price said he was not concerned about his defense despite its inexperience. So far they have already performed above expectations. They held New Mexico to just 6 points in the season opener leading to an outright win and kept Texas Tech's high powered offense under wraps for three quarters. The return of defensive leader LB Jeremy Jones from injury last year (13 tackles in season opener vs New Mexico) has been a major positive.
New Mexico State is playing the favorite role for just the fourth time since Hal Mumme's arrival in 2005. The Aggies are just 2-21 vs Division 1-A opponents under Mumme. While some improvement is expected this year this team has no business being a significant favorite against a quality opponent. The Aggies are coming off a 10 point loss to instate rival New Mexico, the same team who lost to UTEP in week one. Aggie QB Chase Holbrook is off to a slow start having already thrown five interceptions this year (9 all of last year). In opening game the offense was able to put up just 28 points (defense added another score) vs 1-AA SE Louisiana who only returned three defensive starters. Defensively, NMSU has been awful for years and are replacing four of their top six tacklers from last year. They gave up 44 points and 496 yards to a New Mexico offense that was inept in week 1 vs UTEP. Last year NMSU allowed 34.1ppg vs 1-A opponents. Las Cruces is only a 40 minute drive from El Paso. If past years are any indication close to half of the fans in attendance will be supporting the road team making the home field advantage very minor. There is a good chance the wrong team is favored all together here. Take the points.

RAS Official Play
1 Unit UTEP +6
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Chuck Franklin


2500♦ FLORIDA

The bottom line in this game is that the Volunteers of Tennessee do not perform well as road underdogs, failing to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as the listed dog of this many points. Add to this the fact that the Gators love to play in "The Swamp", and have been ATS winners in each of their last five home contests as favorites of this many points. The reigning National Champs are proving this year that they still have a dominant offense. Led by QB Jeff Tebow, they have put points on the board each time they entered the red zone this season, and almost all were TDs. I know the Gators opened their season with two relatively unimpressive opponents, but these games allowed their offense to really get into the groove they will need to be in for this match-up with the Vols. Side with the Gators in this Absolute Blowout.


1500♦ GEORGIA TECH

Both of these teams are heading into this game 2-0, but somebody’s going down today. That will be the Eagles of BC, who are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Although they have performed well enough in their first two games of the season, they will crumble under the Yellow Jackets’ swarming defense. I know that the Eagles have showcased their own defensive skills, with nine interceptions already in their first two games. But this shouldn’t be a factor for Tech, as they have rushed for all of their TDs so far this season. Also, it is never a good bet to side with a first year head coach in his first road contest, which is the case for Boston College’s Jeff Jagodzinski. GT has covered four of their last five September match-ups, and will easily get another ATS win tonight.


1500♦ SOUTHERN CAL

The Trojans are facing their first real contest of the season, as they were off last week and yawned through the meeting with their first opponent of the season, Idaho. I know they did not cover the spread in that game, as many of their starters were held at bay. Believe me, if they wanted to they could have scored at will. Now in this match-up with a BCS quality team, they will come out with guns blazing. Pete Carroll has shown how important a week of rest is to his team, as they have been ATS winners in nine of their last 11 games after the bye. Nebraska allowed 236 rushing yards and got picked off twice by Wake Forest last week! USC will have a field day if the Huskers don’t bring their “A” game tonight. Nebraska has been the ATS loser in 15 of their last 16 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Look for Southern Cal to have an outstanding performance and get a dominant win tonight!
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Selective Sports

Sides
5 units USC -9

3 units Tennessee +7.5

2 units Tulane +14.5

2 units SDSU +28.5


Totals
4 units Vandy over 46
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Doc Enterprises

6-Florida Atlantic
5-Washington
4-Central Florida
4-Tennessee
4-Indiana
4-La Monroe
3-Iowa
3-Nebraska
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Inside Info

3-Stanford
3-BYU
3-Indiana

<table style="table-layout: fixed;" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="smalltext" width="100%">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Jimmy Broadway from lang forum

1000 Stars Syracuse

750 Stars Alabama

300 Stars Washington

300 Stars Michigan State
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Michael Cannon from the lang forum


50 Dime
MICHIGAN STATE

5 Dime
INDIANA Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -13 1/2

20 Dime
USC

5 Dime
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
KANSAS
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Outlook on Sports

NCAA Triple Crown

Arizona -10 lock
Hawaii -17 lock
SMU +3 lock



Auburn -13
Navy -7
VA. Tech -21
Pittsburgh +11
Akron +13.5
Kentucky +6
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
David Malinsky

6* Top of the Ticket

6* ARMY over WAKE FOREST

In our continuing works on handicapping theory there are significant edges to be found when we can define the roles of being the “Hunted” and the “Hunter”, and there has never been a better example in any sport than Jim Grobe’s tenure as the head coach at Wake Forest. As such we have the setting for something special here.

No one does a better job of game-planning than Grobe, who has been able to maximize the marginal talent available to compete week-in and week-out against teams with better personnel. The trip by the Deacons to a BCS bowl LY will go down as one of the 10 best individual coaching seasons ever, with Wake winning five different games despite trailing in first downs and total offense. It tells us much about Grobe’s ability to find whatever strengths his team has, and whatever weaknesses the opponents have, and come up with a couple of big plays that can swing the outcome. At the same time, it tells us that if the likes of Duke and Connecticut beat you by a combined 21 first downs and 190 yards, your stockpile of talent is indeed thin.

So what happens when this limited program goes from being the rabid underdog that is looking to pull a surprise against a favorite that might not take them seriously, and is instead favored against a lesser opponent? First, Grobe manages the game the best way he knows how. Without a lot of depth he must spare the roster when he can, to save the better players for bigger games ahead. Second, if he can win without his tricks he will not use many, so that future opponents do not see them. Third, if it is a non-conference affair each of the first two rules here become magnified. And that is what leads to the bottom line for the Deacon coach in this category.

Since taking over the program his team has been favored by -14 or more six times, and not only took an 0-6 ATS collar, but lost to the spread by a combined 66.5 points in those games. And in the nine settings in which they have been favored by any price vs. a non-conference opponent it is an 0-8-1 ATS slide, which means that a good shopper would have gone 9-0 by bucking them every time. Now in one of the most pronounced settings of all, we absolutely call for the pattern(s) to continue. Having played their hearts out in tough losses to Boston College and Nebraska to open the season this is already a weary squad (contrast that with the soft Syracuse/Duke opening, both at home, that helped to jump start their run LY), and one that has a home A.C.C. showdown with Maryland immediately on deck. This is a week for Grobe to manage the game, get a win, and move on, with the margin of no consequence.

What takes this to an even higher rating is the fact that we do not have to make this all anti-Wake; Army brings some legitimate puzzle pieces that can help. Because the Deacons lack the personnel to grind anyone in the trenches, and even in games like this must rely on some offensive tricks, the most important matchup consideration on defense are some veterans in the key spots to not be fooled. Enter the savvy Army safety combination of seniors Caleb Campbell and Jordan Murray, both returning starters. At 6-2/224 Campbell is a rare talent for Army, already listed as a Lott Trophy candidate and now making his 29th career start. He and Murray are not going to be fooled much here, and note that only there are also four other returning senior starters on the defensive unit, but nine senior starters with a combined total of 20 letters already, a rare amount of experience at West Point. That is helping to make Stan Brock’s transition from assistant to head coach a seamless one, and it does not hurt that there are playmakers on the other side as well. While senior David Pevoto won the QB job in the fall, his injury vs. Rhode Island is a non-issue; it merely hands the reigns to Carson Williams, who has the best arm of any Black Knight QB in memory. And Williams has a legitimate weapon to throw to in Jeremy Trimble, who is only 20 receptions away from becoming the all-time leader at the academy, and was second in the nation in punt returns LY, averaging 18.1 and taking to of them to the house.

Army is not a good team. But there are some weapons, and there will be the usual focus and discipline to play hard and smart. That is more than enough to make this a game for a long time against a favorite that is not overpowering, and we believe that the Black Knights will be alive to win this outright well into the second half, with the pointspread never coming into play.

<!-- / message --><!-- controls --> This is a 6* at +19 or better, and a 5* at +17 or better
 

Member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
4,682
Tokens
Wild Bill

Sept 13-16

Syracuse +12 1/2 (1 unit)
North Carolina -3 (5 units)
Auburn -13 (2 units)
Va Tech -20 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 39 1/2 Iowa-Iowa St (5 units)
E. Michigan +14 1/2 (1 unit)
Utah St +46 1/2 (2 units)
Fresno +16 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 48 1/2 Texas-UCF (1 unit)
UCF +19 1/2 (1 unit)
Cal -33 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 53 Ball St-Navy (1 unit)
Akron +13 (1 unit)
Over 55 1/2 Idaho-Wash St (1 unit)
Louisville -6 1/2 (2 units)
Alabama -3 (2 units)
Boston College +7 1/2 (1 unit)
Duke +16 1/2 (2 units)
UTEP +6 1/2 (1 unit)
Florida St -4 (3 units)
New Mexico +10 1/2 (1 unit)
SMU +3 (2 units)
Middle Tenn +42 (1 unit)
Over 49 Stanford-San Jose (5 units)
Over 62 UNLV-Hawaii (2 units)
 

Member
Joined
Nov 15, 2006
Messages
12,186
Tokens
THANK YOU PATS12...DO YOU KNOW THE ATS PCKS?

LOOKS LIKE EVERYONE LIKE KANSAS AND NEW MEXICO:toast:
 

RX Local
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
24,032
Tokens
kelso 50 unit

-------------------Rivalry GOY-------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky +5.5
 

RX Local
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
24,032
Tokens
THANK YOU PATS12...DO YOU KNOW THE ATS PCKS?

LOOKS LIKE EVERYONE LIKE KANSAS AND NEW MEXICO:toast:



Ats Lock Club

15* Alabama (-3)
7 *Washington (+3 1/2)
7 * Tennessee (+7 1/2)
6 * Southern Mississippi (-1)
5 * Georgia Tech (-6 1/2)
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,769
Messages
13,438,844
Members
99,338
Latest member
chaicoca816
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com