Service plays 9/16/07

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Pointwise<o></o>
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NFL KEY RELEASES
<st1:State w:st="on">NEW YORK</st1:State> GIANTS over Green Bay RATING: 2 30-17
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> RATING: 3 34-10
<st1:City w:st="on">SAN FRANCISCO</st1:City> over St Louis RATING: 4 23-24
<st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> RATING: 4 22-24
<st1:City w:st="on">CINCINNATI</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Cleveland</st1:City></st1lace> RATING: 5 27-13<o></o>
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Power Sweep<o></o>

4 <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
3 <st1:City w:st="on">Detroit</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City>
2 <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
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The Gold Sheet<o></o>
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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

OVER THE TOTAL <st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> 30 - <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> 17--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).

(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> 12-9)

<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> 27 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>'s instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.

(06-CINCY 34-Cle. 17...Ci.27-17 Ci.32/160 Cl.20/57 Ci.24/40/2/321 Cl.20/33/2/244 Ci.0 Cl.1)

(06-Cincy 30-CLE. 0...Ci.24-9 Ci.35/99 Cl.14/51 Ci.27/34/1/289 Cl.18/29/4/152 Ci.0 Cl.1)

(06-CINCINNATI -10 34-17, Cincinnati -3 30-0...SR: Cleveland 34-33)

Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City>, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."

(06-INDY 14-Tenn. 13...I.20-15 T.31/214 I.34/154 I.20/31/1/166 T.10/21/1/63 I.1 T.0)

(06-TENN. 20-Indy 17...T.21-20 T.35/219 I.29/100 I.21/28/2/351 T.15/25/2/163 T.0 I.0)

(06-INDIANAPOLIS -18 14-13, <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> +7' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> 14-11)

<st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace>. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.

(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace> 1-0)

<st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> 23 - <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> 17--We're not going to blame <st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City> low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace>. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. coord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.

(06-S.F. 20-St. L. 13...St.17-14 Sf.33/127 St.28/118 Sf.11/22/0/233 St.19/34/0/147 Sf.1 St.1)

(06-ST.L. 20-S.Frn. 17...St.23-20 Sf.31/171 St.29/140 St.24/37/1/209 Sf.13/25/2/148 St.0 Sf.1)

(06-SAN FRANCISCO +3 20-13, <st1:City w:st="on">ST. LOUIS</st1:City> -4' 20-17...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">St. Louis</st1:City></st1lace> 59-54-2)

NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.

(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City></st1lace> 28-22-2)

<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace>. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City> defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.

(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> 2-1)

<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> 21 - <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType></st1lace> 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.

(06-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 21...T.18-15 T.33/187 N.25/143 T.20/31/0/219 N.21/33/0/171 N.0 T.1)

(06-N. Orl. 31-T. BAY 14...N.19-11 T.18/68 N.35/49 N.24/32/0/314 T.18/31/0/158 N.0 T.1)

(06-NEW <st1:City w:st="on">ORLEANS</st1:City> -6' 24-21, <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> P 31-14...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City></st1lace> 19-11)

<st1:City w:st="on">DETROIT</st1:City> 23 - <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Detroit</st1lace></st1:City> prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).

(06-MINN. 26-Det. 17...M.18-13 M.30/135 D.11/16 M.26/34/1/201 D.23/42/3/201 M.2 D.1)

(06-Minn. 30-DET. 20...M.21-20 M.44/172 D.10/M3 D.28/41/3/272 M.14/22/1/153 M.1 D.3)

(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> +1' 30-20...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State></st1lace> 60-29-2)

<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">MIAMI</st1lace></st1:City> 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With <st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.

(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> 7-4)

<st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> 24 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State>'s young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)

(06-SEA. 21-Ariz. 10...S.20-17 S.36/146 A.20/65 S.12/27/2/195 A.24/38/1/191 S.0 A.1)

(06-ARIZ. 27-Sea. 21...S.21-20 S.29/120 A.33/113 A.21/34/1/232 S.20/28/0/213 A.0 S.3)

(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)

<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> 23 - NY Jets 10--<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.

(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City></st1lace> 4-1)

<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> 20 - <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> 14--Things might have gone better for <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City></st1lace> did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."

(06-DENVER 13-Oak. 3...D.15-14 D.31/144 O.30/85 O.13/26/1/159 D.11/18/0/91 D.1 O.1)

(06-Denver 17-OAK. 13...13-13 D.26/63 O.26/46 D.20/31/3/201 O.18/33/0/198 D.0 O.2)

(06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)

CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Anderson</st1lace></st1:City>. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.

(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> 5-4)

*NEW ENGLAND 23 - <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Diego</st1lace></st1:City> 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & <st1lace w:st="on">Harrison</st1lace>. TV--NBC

(06-N. Eng. 24-S. DIEGO 21...S.21-18 S.33/148 N.21/51 N.27/51/3/276 S.14/32/1/204 N.0 S.3)

(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City>) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN

(06-PHIL. 27-Wash. 3...P.17-15 W.31/146 P.34/145 P.12/26/0/220 W.16/32/1/132 P.0 W.0)

(06-Phil. 21-WASH. 19...W.20-14 W.40/210 P.22/99 W.16/28/2/188 P.15/23/0/164 P.1 W.0)

(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> -1' 21-19...SR: <st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State> 75-64-5)


NFL KEY RELEASES

<st1:City w:st="on">HOUSTON</st1:City> by 4 over <st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City>
<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> by 23 over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City></st1lace>
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-Pittsburgh game<o></o>
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Dr. Bob

Rotation #225-226 UNDER (38 1/2) <st1:City w:st="on">Oakland</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City></st1lace> 2-Stars UNDER 38 or higher.

2-Star UNDER
**UNDER - DENVER (-9.5) 19 Oakland 12
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Oakland played pretty well offensively last week against a bad Lions’ defense, but the Raiders will have a tougher time against a Denver defense with two great cornerbacks. Daunte Culpepper takes over for an injured Josh McCown, but I rated those two quarterbacks the same heading into the season. <st1:City w:st="on">Denver</st1:City>’s offense moved the ball well last week in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> while the Raiders’ defense was abused by the Lions. Those results may reverse this week as the Broncos have averaged 5.3 yards per play or less in 5 of Jay Cutler’s 6 career starts and Oakland is still a good defensive team regardless of what happened last week. In fact, Oakland’s bad defensive effort in week 1 sets them up in a solid 102-50-5 UNDER situation this week and the Raiders have still gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games. My ratings predict a total of 38 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll go UNDER 38 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Oakland plus the points, as my ratings favor Denver by just 7 ½ points and the Broncos are only 5-21 ATS under coach Shanahan when favored by more than 5 points in the regular season following a victory.

Strong Opinion
San Francisco 23 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The 49ers didn’t play well offensively last week, but their new defense looks very good. San Francisco held a decent Arizona attack to just 3.9 yards per play and only 3.4 yards per pass play as All-Pro cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris shut down the Cardinals receiving tandem while rookie LB Patrick Willis logged 11 tackles in his debut. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> rebuilt their defense in the off-season and it looks like a better than average unit. The Rams offense is in trouble without big LT Orlando Pace protecting Marc Bulger and Pace appears to be out for the season after getting hurt last week. Pace missed some time last season and Rams’ quarterback Marc Bulger went from averaging 6.9 yards per pass play in 8 games with Pace protecting his back to just 5.6 yppp in the final 8 games of the season without Pace. Bulger averaged just 3.8 yppp last week and he’ll have a tough time finding open receivers this week against one of the best sets of corners in the league. The Rams’ defense was horrible last week against both the run (4.9 ypr) and the pass (7.4 yppp), so expect the 49ers to look much better offensively this week. My ratings favor St. Louis by just 1 point and the Rams are just 6-15-1 ATS the last 3 seasons as a favorite of 3 points or more, including 1-4-1 ATS last season in coach Linehan’s first year. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">San Francisco</st1lace></st1:City> applies to a solid 52-20-1 statistical match- up indicator that is 10-1 ATS in week 2. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
ARIZONA 23 Seattle (-3.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Arizona had a tough time throwing the ball against the 49ers but their defense looked very good and the offensive is likely to bounce back with a better effort. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> looked better than I expected against the Bucs, but my ratings only favor the Seahawks by 2 points in this game. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> applies to a solid 187-106-10 ATS statistical indicator and that is certainly enough to get me favoring the upset. I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d make <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Arizona</st1lace></st1:State> a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more (-115 odds or better).

Strong Opinion
Kansas City 14 CHICAGO (-12.0) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite of more than 10 points under coach Lovie Smith and the Bears apply to a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City>, meanwhile, applies to a solid 69-23-1 ATS situation. My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> by 12 points, so the line is fair, but I’m going to resist making the Chiefs a Best Bet since the Bears are a perfect 5-0 ATS the week following a loss the last 2 seasons. That team trend is not nearly enough to cancel out the general situations so I’ll consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas</st1lace></st1:State> City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take KC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +13 points or more.

Strong Opinion
NY Jets 13 BALTIMORE (-10.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Both teams will likely be without their starting quarterbacks, as Baltimore’s Steve McNair is expected to miss with groin injury while the Jets’ Chad Pennington is doubtful with an ankle sprain. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> has the more experienced backup in Kyle Boller and Boller looked very good off the bench last season (9.8 yards per pass play on 58 pass plays) and was improving as starter before McNair replaced him last season. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Jets if Pennington doesn’t play and Clemens has had no success in very limited action in his career. However, Clemens looked good in the preseason and many think he could be an improvement over Pennington (I’ll reserve judgment). <st1:State w:st="on">New York</st1:State> applies to a very strong 63-10 ATS bounce back situation and the line appears to be fair (my ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> by 10 ½ points). The Ravens, meanwhile, qualify in a negative 32-72-3 ATS game 2 situation but I’m not going to make the Jets a Best Bet since <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Baltimore</st1lace></st1:City> is 33-14-2 ATS as a home favorite under Brian Billick, including 19-4-1 ATS hosting non-division teams. The team trend is not as strong as the general situations favoring <st1:City w:st="on">Baltimore</st1:City> so I will consider <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
UNDER - JACKSONVILLE (-10.0) 21 Atlanta 7
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
The Falcons managed just 4.0 yards per play and 3 points in their first regular season game with Michael Vick and today they face a Jaguars’ team that will be fired up defensively after allowing 284 rushing yards to the Titans last week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> is traditionally one of the best teams in the league at defending the run and their defense allowed just 13 points despite the uncharacteristically poor run defense. Teams that score 7 points or less in their opener are not good bets in game 2, especially when facing teams that allowed 13 points or less in week 1 (6-21 ATS). My ratings favor <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1lace></st1:City> by 13 points with a total of 36 points. I mention the projected points based on my ratings because this game applies to a 102-50-5 ATS early season UNDER angle. The total is only 34 ½ points, so some of the value of that angle is lost due to negative line value. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 34 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
UNDER - Dallas (-3.5) 19 MIAMI 16
01:05 PM Pacific, 16-Sep-07
Cowboys coach Wade Wilson can’t be too excited about how his defense performed in last week’s 45-35 win over the Giants, so I expect a better effort from that unit this week. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> always has a solid defense and they tend to play their best at home. In fact, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> is 57-34 UNDER at home since 1996, including 6-2 UNDER last season and 24-8 UNDER when the total is 40 points or higher. This game also applies to a solid 102-50-5 UNDER angle. Unfortunately my math projects a total of 42 points (and favors <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> by 3 points) so I’ll resist playing the UNDER as a Best Bet at the current line of 40 ½ points. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 42 points or higher.<o></o>
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[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Marc Lawrence Playbook<o></o>

4<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Francisco</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">ST LOUIS</st1lace></st1:City> by 7 <o></o>

Niners have skipped town with the money after their last three
trips to the Edward Jones Dome and the series dog stands a
proud 6-1 ATS. San Fran head man Dick Nolan is also a perfect 5-0
ATS as a division dog. The home team will have to fi ght through
an ugly 3-17 spread history when playing off a SU favorite loss
(if under .500) against an opponent with revenge. Lambs are a
meek 10-52 ATS when the defense allows 28 or more points and
the San Francisco offense looks capable of hitting that mark.
Clincher is that Rams' QB Marc Bulger is the answer to this week's
TRIVIA TEASER (page 2). Niners strike gold in the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Missouri</st1lace></st1:State> hills.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">PITTSBURGH</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
New Steeler coach Mike Tomlin’s debut went pretty much as planned.
The re-tooled <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> defense battered and bullied the Browns’
offense at will and Big Ben Roethlisberger fi red four TD passes to
lead the 34-7 rout. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City></st1lace> may not go so quietly: they own a 14-2
ATS record in Game Two and coach Dick Jauron is an amazing 15-1
ATS off a SU loss when taking on a non-AFC East foe off a SU win.
Steelers have buffaloed the Bills at this site, covering 4 consecutive
contests, but will be carrying a few too many points today.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">CLEVELAND</st1lace></st1:City> by 3
The Browns couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. Five turnovers
and the inability to contain <st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City>’s savage pass rush buried
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Cleveland</st1lace></st1:City>. Things won’t get any easier in the Dawg Pound against
the hated Bengals who have cashed in 4 of the past 5 meetings.
Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel is 6-1 ATS as a dog off a division game
but that’s a lone bright spot in an ATS black hole – that and the fact
that home dogs off a blowout home loss of 24 or more points are
reliable moneymakers. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou, Romeo?<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">TENNESSEE</st1:State> by 4
Titans buried a lot of handicappers by whipping <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City></st1lace> last
week and Jeff Fisher’s crew is more than capable of springing the
upset here. <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> came within two points of beating the Colts in
<st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> (as a +18 dog!) and won outright in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Nashville</st1lace></st1:City> by a 20-17
fi nal. Our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) lines up squarely against the
defending Super Bowl champs, adding more weight to the Titans’ 4-
1 ATS mark as home dogs in 2006. We’re not all that enamored with
the Titans but their numbers are just too good to ignore.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">CAROLINA</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City> by 6
Panthers improved on their NFL best 16-2-1 ATS record as underdogs
by whipping the Rams but now change sides of the pointspread
fence. That hasn’t been a problem for this franchise as they’ve logged
a stunning 78-9 ATS mark when they win SU, including 39-5 if playing
at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Charlotte</st1lace></st1:City>. That meshes with the fact that SU losers in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Houston</st1lace></st1:City>
games are a woeful 1-15 versus the number. The Texans are a team
on the rise, coached by one of the league’s brightest in Gary Kubiak,
but until they improve their 1-9 ATS record as non-conference dogs
of 3 or more points, we’ll go with the proven commodity.<o></o>
<o> </o>
NY GIANTS over <st1:City w:st="on">Green Bay</st1:City> by 8
Giants fell behind early at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Dallas</st1lace></st1:City> and never could catch up. The New
Yorkers get a shot at redemption against <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City> and considering
the Packers don’t cover when the lose SU (6-72 ATS), this looks a surefi
re tonic. Still, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>’s win over Philly was more a result of Eagle
penalties and miscues than a cohesive effort by the Packers (won the
game but lost the stats). And with Coughlin an astonishing 20-3 ATS
versus an opponent off a SU underdog win, the Giants will go all
out to avoid a 0-2 start. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Check</st1:City> <st1:State w:st="on">NY</st1:State></st1lace> QB Eli Manning’s status (bruised
shoulder) before opening the wallet<o></o>
<o> </o>
3<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>
Roll the clock back to mid-January, if you will. The best team in
the NFL, the 14-2 Chargers, were hosting the Patriots with visions
of Super Bowl dancing through their heads. Three hours and
forty-fi ve minutes later, the dreams turned to nightmares when
<st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace> escaped with a 24-21 win. So long Marty, so long
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">South</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Beach</st1laceType></st1lace>. Vindication comes today in Foxboro where <st1:City w:st="on">San
Diego</st1:City> catches the Pats nice-and-fat off a 24-point destruction
of division rival <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New York</st1lace></st1:State> last Sunday. We could look to Diego’s
7-0 ATS mark as a dog of 4 or more when taking on a more than
.600 opponent. Or <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>’s 1-7 ATS record in September
off a SU & ATS win over a division foe. Instead, we’ll look to the
better team in a desirable role. You should, too.
<st1:City w:st="on">San Diego</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on">NEW ENGLAND</st1lace> by 7<o></o>

5<!--[if !supportFootnotes]-->[1]<!--[endif]--> BEST BET <st1:State w:st="on">Minnesota</st1:State> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">DETROIT</st1lace></st1:City> by 1<o></o>
Hats off to both teams as each opened with impressive season
opening wins, and covers. While the Lions appear vastly
improved with Calvin Johnson in the starting lineup, we simply
can’t trust Rod Marinelli just yet. His 1-6 ATS mark in games off a
SU & ATS win is hard to swallow, especially when laying points to
a team they’ve lost 10 games in a row against. The Vikings were
one of two teams in the NFL that actually improved on both
offense and defense last season, yet declined both SU & ATS.
Teams like these tend to fl y under the radar in the early going.
With Adrian Peterson fl ying up and down the fi eld, our money
is on this dominating dog.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">PHILADELPHIA</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> by 10
Bummer. That’s the feeling the Eagles had departing <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Green Bay</st1lace></st1:City>
Sunday night. Costly turnovers and penalties did them in as they
now take on DIVISION LEADER <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> under the Monday Night
lights in a suddenly important showdown. Noting the Skins 4-9 ATS
log as road dogs on Mondays, and Philly’s 11-3 ATS mark as a Monday
night favorite, look for the SU winner in the 2nd Eagles game of the
season to improve to 16-1 ATS as Andy comes up dandy tonight.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">JACKSONVILLE</st1:City> over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City></st1lace> by 7
Hugely disappointing starts for both teams. The 7-point favorite
Jaguars saw Titan RB Chris Brown slash through their highly-touted
defense for 175 yards and Jacko was shut out in the second half
of a shocking 10-13 loss to <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State>. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Atlanta</st1lace></st1:City>’s fate was much less
of a surprise since the Falcons brought a new coaching staff and
a backup QB to the Metrodome. <st1:City w:st="on">Atlanta</st1:City> rushed for just 96 yards
against <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Minnesota</st1lace></st1:State> and the Falcs couldn’t dent the scoreboard until
the fourth quarter, a sobering debut for new coach Bobby Petrino.
Despite Jack’s killer 9-1 ATS mark at home versus non-division foes,
we simply can’t lineup with a prohibitive favorite that no-showed
last week in game they really wanted. Birds, or bust.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> over <st1laceName w:st="on">TAMPA</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">BAY</st1laceType> by 4
Saints highly-anticipated showdown with <st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City> in the season
opener fell well short of expectations and they'll look to bounce
back against a Tampa Team that moved the ball against <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City></st1lace> but
scored just 6 points. The chances are good: New Orleans is a super
18-3 ATS lately against NFC South foes and coach Sean Payton lost
back-to-back games just once in his fi rst year at the helm. Bucs have
been nearly unbeatable as home dogs under Gruden (15-4 ATS) but
with QB Garcia dinged up and RB Cadillac Williams doubtful due to
injury, we’ll lean to the more polished Saints here.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">Dallas</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">MIAMI</st1:City> by 4
Not much to like about the Dolphins debut with the new Trent-Cam
last week at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace>. The Redskins clearly dominated in the stats,
winning the yardage 400-273. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Miami</st1lace></st1:City> failed to surrender 400 yards to
ANY opponent last year, snapping a 26-game skein in the process.
More importantly, Cam Cameron’s offense is in the embryonic stage
and this is not the foe they need to be taking on at this early stage
of the campaign. The Cowboys 0-9 ATS mark as chalk in games after
scoring 35 or more points, and the Mammals 13-5 ATS mark as nondivision
home dogs, may help <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Miami</st1:City></st1lace> get the money.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> over <st1:State w:st="on">ARIZONA</st1:State> by 3
Seahawks defensive schemes held <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Tampa</st1:City></st1lace> in check last week as new
coordinator Jim Mora Jr. is already beginning to pay dividends.
Revenge from a six-point loss here late last year should fi nd them
fully focused. The problem, though, is head coach Mike Holmgren's
struggles as a road favorite in division play, going 11-17 ATS in his
NFL career (0-4 ATS last four). On the fl ip side, Zona makes their
home debut under new mentor Ken Whisenhunt. Let’s hope they
don’t perform for him like they have in the past at division home
games during September (2-11 ATS). We’ll watch from the sidelines.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">BALTIMORE</st1:City> over NY Jets by 7
Flyboys crashed and burned in their home opener against division
rival <st1lace w:st="on">New England</st1lace>. It marked the fi rst time a home dog had failed
to win or cover its season opener against a team that had booted
them from the playoffs the previous season. It’s back to the drawing
board for Eric Mangini’s pilots, and today’s enemy couldn’t be any
tougher. The Black Birds are 6-0 ATS in this series and 13-3 ATS when
favored at home in September. No boarding passes admitted here.
Ravens or pass.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">DENVER</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1lace></st1:City> by 13
Like the Four Tops once said, “It’s the same old song” when these
two division foes lock horns. It’s been that way ever since Bronco boss
Mike Shanahan was dispatched by Al Davis. Since then, Shanahan is
19-5 SU & 15-9 ATS against the Black-Silver, including 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS
when playing off an ATS loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Denver</st1lace></st1:City> is also 11-1 ATS in Game Two
of the season off a season-opening victory. Even though the Broncos
failed to get the money in their frantic win at <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> last week, they
outgained the Bills, 470-184. We like the sounds of Motown.<o></o>

<st1:City w:st="on">CHICAGO</st1:City> over <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> by 8
Da Bears limp back to the <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Windy</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">City</st1laceType></st1lace> as the Super Bowl losers they
are – with a season opening loss. The task at hand is to not only
winning a game, but to also overcome a double-digit margin the
oddsmaker has bestowed upon them. We don’t think so. For openers,
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> is 1-10 ATS as favorites of 10 or more points in non-division
dukeouts. Granted, the Chiefs have that deer in the headlights look
about them now, but the fact of the matter is teams that went 0-4 in
the preseason, and dropped their season opener, are a sparkling 14-5
ATS as Game Two dogs. We’re going to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kansas City</st1lace></st1:City> today[FONT=&quot]<o></o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]<o> </o>[/FONT]
Robert Ferringo

NFL SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take #215 <st1:City w:st="on">New Orleans</st1:City> (-3.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Tampa</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Bay</st1laceType></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Month. I do endorse this play up to -4.0. It is pretty stable at -3.5 in Vegas but is -3.0 at a majority of the top nine online sportsbooks and that is our basis. Believe me, this will be a double-digit win so an extra half-point shouldn't factor in.

Since 1997, teams that started the year with two straight road games are 20-13 ATS (60.6) in Week 2. Favorites in that role (as in, favored in the second game) are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent). Those road teams are 13-6 ATS off a loss in Week 1, and 5-1 when instilled as a favorite after that loss. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> is devalued after that undressing on the Thursday night opener, but they were actually winning that game early and were tied, with the ball, to start the second half. Their talent puts them in the top one-third of teams in this league while <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> is still a bottom-third club. The <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tampa</st1lace></st1:City> offense can’t put the type of pressure on a team that the Colts can and I think that the Saints are just itching to show that their defense is actually better this season than last. Also, if Brian Kelly doesn’t play the Bucs are short one of their best corners. That’s not a place you want to be when Drew Brees comes to town. Sean Payton is 7-3 ATS on the road and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">New Orleans</st1lace></st1:City> has covered four of five against the Bucs. Finally, the moneyline on this game is anywhere from 25 to 50 cents heavy, and that's a strong indicator.

4-Unit Play. Take #221 <st1:City w:st="on">Seattle</st1:City> (-2.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
This line is baffling. Until the Cardinals actually win some games they don’t deserve the respect that they get from the public, who is in love with them as a perpetual “sleeper team”. They aren’t. The Cardinals are 6-18 ATS (25 percent) in September home games and 12-19 ATS in September divisional games. They are 0-4 ATS since 2003 in divisional home games in September. The Cardinals are 3-16 straight up and 2-10 ATS in home openers, they are coming off a short week, and they are facing a team with superior talent. <st1:State w:st="on">Arizona</st1:State> will start two rookie offensive linemen against a veteran <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Seattle</st1lace></st1:City> front seven. I simply don’t see how they will be able to withstand the pressure, and I don’t see them stopping an offense that is very familiar with their personnel.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 <st1:City w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Over the past two years the Steelers are an astounding 13-1-2 against the total when playing at home. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City>’s defense is decimated – I mean completely decimated – and will be without as many as five starters. The Steelers have been throwing the ball more with Bruce Arians and I see them completely devastating the Bills. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> is 6-2 ATS over the past five years with a line between 36.0 and 38.0. Further, the ‘over’ is 36-15-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 53 home games, 46-22-2 with them as a favorite, and 10-1-1 when they allow less than 15 points in the previous game. Buy onto 37 if you have to because it’s such a key number, but if the Bills can chip in 9-13 points this one won’t be in doubt at all.

4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 34.5 <st1:City w:st="on">Kansas City</st1:City> at <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City></st1lace> (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Note: I endorse this play at 35.0 because that merely brings the push into play.

<st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City> went 9-1 against the number last year at home and is 9-3 in Soldier Field when the total is between 33.5 and 35.5. The ‘over’ is 10-2 in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Chicago</st1lace></st1:City>’s last 12 home games, 16-6-1 in their last 23 overall, and 14-3-1 as a favorite. The Bears lost two starters on defense last week and the Chiefs will be without two of their better defenders (Jared Allen and Patrick Surtain). These two teams combined for six points last week so there’s a naturally overreaction toward the ‘under’. But there’s a system at work here that’s hit at nearly 73 percent ‘over’ for the past six years. Chicago’s first four home games last year saw an average of 45.5 combined points and four of the Bears’ last five home openers have gone ‘over’. Rex Grossman is notorious for this – answering critics with a 250-yard, 4 TD eruption when everyone is calling for his head.

3-Unit Play. Take #206 <st1:State w:st="on">Tennessee</st1:State> (+7.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Indianapolis</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
Two very good systems at work here. First, play on a home dog that won its last game outright vs. an opponent who was playing at home. This system hit at roughly 61 percent over the past 15 years. Next, play on a division home dog that won straight up on as an away dog the previous week. This system has hit at 66 percent over the past 15 years. I couldn’t have been more impressed with how physical <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> was last week and I think they can make the Colts uncomfortable with their style. Also, road teams favored by 7.5 or more were 38-63 ATS (37.6 percent) between 1997 and 2006.

2-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+7) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Carolina</st1:City></st1lace> (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 16)
If the Panthers are an automatic play as an underdog (20-3-1 ATS) then they are also an automatic play against as a favorite. The Jake Delhomme-John Fox combo is 9-17-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-7 ATS at home, and 3-12 ATS as a favorite between 4.0 and 7.0. Remember, the Panthers were on the verge of losing in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">St. Louis</st1lace></st1:City> before two Steven Jackson fumbles handed them 14 points. I don’t see Carolina running the ball they way they did against an awful Rams defense, and this is play blends two basic tenets that have been very successful recently – playing the underdogs (58 percent ATS in 2006) and playing the AFC vs. the NFC.

2-Unit Play. Take #232 <st1:City w:st="on">Philadelphia</st1:City> (-6.5) over <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 16)
Andy Reid is 10-1 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite and Donovan McNabb is 16-7 ATS following a loss. The Eagles are 17-10 ATS playing at home as a favorite after a loss and - the coup de grace - they are 11-3 ATS as home chalk on Monday Night Football. Is this line about 1-3 points to much? Yes. But you can't argue with results. <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Washington</st1:State></st1lace> is 3-7 ATS on MNF and have a young quarterback making his first road start. In Philly. The 'Skins lost Jon Jansen and I think their offensive line will suffer, especially against the blitz-happy Eagles. Finally, <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Washington</st1lace></st1:State> is 10-5 ATS when scoring 21 or more points and 12-22 ATS when they don't. I don't see it happening for them this week.

BONUS SELECTION
3-Unit Play. TEASER: Take <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> (-1.5), <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> (-0.5), and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> (-0.5).
Note: This is a 3-team sweetheart teaser which just about all online books offer. However, since all customers that use "local guys" may not be able to play this game it's simply a bonus play. I initially liked all three teams to cover their normal lines, and favorites of 8.0 or higher in Week 2 went 5-1 last year. However, over the past 10 years faves of -8.0 or higher this early in the year are just 13-18 ATS (41.9 percent) and if you throw out last year they were just 8-17 ATS (32 percent). For this bet to lose, one of these three teams would have to lose outright, basically, and I simply do not see that happening. I see <st1:City w:st="on">Chicago</st1:City> 34-10, <st1:City w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1:City> 24-13, and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City> 38-9. It's 10-cent juice on this bet and I like it as an online bonus for those of you that like the action.<o></o>

Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

30 DIME

STEELERS

5 DIME

Packers
Titans
Vikings

Free Pick - Bears

Chuck Franklin

2500♦ CHICAGO BEARS
1500♦ CAROLINA
1500♦ DETROIT
1500♦ SAN DIEGO

HUDDLE UP SPORTS


500,000* Lock

Carolina -6'


Best Bets

Cincinnati -6'
New Orleans -3'
Green Bay +1'
Green Bay/NY Giants over 37

CAPPERS ACCESS

(Sun) NFL Buccaneers
(Sun) NFL Browns
(Sun) NFL Dolphins
(Sun-Night) NFL Patriots

Guaranteed Pick

Lenny Del Genio

Game: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Sep 16 2007 4:05PM
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

Reason: Play on the Vikings at 4:05 ET. Jon Kitna may have predicted a 10-win season but lets' not call him a seer after Detroit opened the '07 season with a 36-21 win at Oakland. The Lions jumped out to a 17-0 lead but actually trailed 21-20 in the 4th, before scoring the game's final 16 points. Kitna threw three TDs and passed for 289 yards but he's always had trouble in the red zone. With RB Kevin Jones out, Tatum Bell had 87 YR but here he'll face the team which led the NFL in rushing D last year (Minnesota), allowing 61.6 ypg. The Vikings did a nice job stopping Atlanta's running game in Week 1, holding the Falcons to 96 yards (3.4 ypc). The Minnesota D also returned two interceptions for TDs and let's remember that Kitna threw 22 INTs in '06 and two last week. The Vikings are far from a complete team, as QB Tarvaris Jackson is surely a "work in progress" but the Vikings have to be thrilled with their No. 1 pick, RB Adrian Peterson. A.P. ran for 103 yards in his first career game plus caught a short pass and turned it into a 60-yard TD. The Vikings shouldn't have too much trouble with the Detroit D, which ranked 28th in ypg in '06 and 30th in points allowed. Detroit was favored three times in its 3-13 season last year and not only failed to cover anyone of those games but lost all three SU, as well. One of those losses as a favorite was a 30-20 Week 14 at home to the Vikings (30-20), Detroit's 10th straight loss to Minnesota! The Vikings have beaten the Lions in 14 of the last 15 meetings. So what's different here? Nothing!

NFC 25* North GOY
Detroit Lions

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GoodFella Sports

NFL
ATLANTA/JACKSONVILLE UNDER 34.5 (-105) 1PM
TENNESSEE +7 OVER INDY (1PM)
BUFFALO/PITT UNDER 37.5 (+100) 1PM
CAROLINA -6.5 (-105) over HOUSTON (1PM)
MIAMI +3.5 (-102) OVER DALLAS (4PM)

Larry Ness

20* Division GOY (perfect 5-0 start with NFL 20* plays in '07!)

My 20* play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Let's not overreact to the Saints' opening season loss at Indy. Last time I checked, the Colts were a pretty good team. The Saints have had a few extra days to get "their act together" and in the Bucs, they'll meet the perfect opponent (patsy?). Tampa Bay managed just two FGs in losing at Seattle last Sunday and Cadillac Williams was forced out after injuring his ribs. He says he'll play but so what? He was nowhere near the player LY that he was in his rookie season, topping 100 yards just twice, while gaining a total of only 101 yards in his last three games of '06 (2.4 YPC). Tampa Bay's OL is no bargain and unlike last year, when he stepped in to lead a playoff-ready team like the Eagles, 37-year-old QB Jeff Garcia now leads a team "hardly ready for prime time!" The Saints' D allowed 452 yards to the Colts (288 passing) but will have no such problems with Tampa's offense (NFC-low 211 points scored in '06). While Tampa can still play some D (far from great these days, as LY's 22.1 PPG attests), expect the Saints to bounce back from their Week 1 disaster. New Orleans led the NFL in total offense LY but did not score a single offensive TD vs the Colts. A team known for its "big plays," had just one play for more than 13 yards. Bress was terrible (28-41 for 192 YP with two INTs) , while Bush (12-38) and Deuce (10-38), did nothing! Tampa went 0-6 in its division last year, with the Saints winning 31-14 here in Tampa. Brees had 314 YP in that game and I look for a "return to form" for New Orleans in this game, against a very beatable foe.

NFC South GOY
20* NO Saints

DAVID PAGE

PREMIUM PICKS

David Page

Atlanta Falcons +10.5 (-112)

Cleveland Browns +6.5 (+103)

New York Giants -1 (-109)

Tennessee Titans +7 (-106)

New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-104)

Under 39 (-105)

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-107)

Chicago Bears -12 (-108)

ROCKETMAN SPORTS


NFL

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST

Play On: 3* Pittsburgh -9 1/2

To start with, Buffalo will be without 3 defensive starters for this game. Pittsburgh is 66-41 ATS since 1992 and 12-4 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Buffalo since 1992 and 7-2 ATS overall vs Buffalo since 1992. Pittsburgh offense blasted Cleveland last week winning 34-7 and we see much of the same this week. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS last 7 meetings with Buffalo including 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. We'll play Pittsburgh for 3 units today!


NY Jets @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST

Play On: 4* Baltimore -10

Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 3 years at home when the total is 32 1/2 to 35 points. NY Jets got blown out 38-14 last week and we see much of the same this week. Probably not as many points scored but all the points will be scored by Baltimore. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS vs NY Jets since 1992. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings overall with NY Jets including 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings at home. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS off a straight up loss against an opponent off a straight up loss. Baltimore is 13-3 ATS as home favorites in September. Brian Billick is 13-2 ATS at home vs opponent off a double digit straight up loss. NY Jets are 4-18 ATS when the over-under line is less than 35 points. We'll play Baltimore for 4 units today!




MLB

Atlanta @ Washington 1:35 PM EST

Play On: 1* Atlanta -130 (Hudson/Hill) Listed

Washington is 9-35 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 5-21 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Atlanta is scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road this year. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.63 ERA overall this year and a 3.60 ERA on the road this season. Washington is scoring only 4 runs per game overall, 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Tim Hudson is 7-3 with a 3.37 ERA on the road this year. Hudson is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA vs Washington since 1997. We'll play Atlanta for 1 unit today!

Pittsburgh @ Houston 2:05 PM EST
Play On: 5* Pittsburgh +105 (Maholm/Backe) Listed

Houston is 2-10 this year when playing in September. Houston is only batting .241 against left handed starters this year. Paul Maholm is 2-0 his last 3 starts. Brandon Backe has a 7.20 ERA at home this year. Pittsburgh is 10-3 overall vs Houston this year including 6-1 at Houston. We'll play Pittsburgh for 5 units today!

Scott Spreitzer

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 16th, 1:00 P.M. EST EST

It's a rare spot when I will lay this kind of lumber in the NFL. But the matchups and the situation definitely calls for a serious blowout. First of all, we had Buffalo last week as a situational play. While we got the cover, we did come to realize that this team may be hard-pressed to win more than five games this entire season. The team is riddled with injuries, and other than RB Marshawn Lynch, the Bills have very little to offer opposing defenses. The Bills finished last week's opener with only 15 FDs and 184 total yards at 3.8 yards per play. In fact, J.P. Losman passed for only 97 yards at a poor 4.6 yards per pass! Defensively, Buffalo was chewed up by Denver, both on the ground and through the air. The Bills gave up 470 yards at 6.5 yards per play. The Steelers should have little trouble scoring a bundle in this one. The offense is more opened up under their new HC. While they run many of the same plays as they did under Cowher, much of it is coming from new-look sets. The Steelers are also throwing the deep pass this season, which opens up the run lanes even more. Look for Pittsburgh to drop the clutch in Mike Tomlin's regular season home opener. The Steelers, minus points on Sunday.

Play on: Pittsburgh

Scott Spreitzer - Saints - Best Bet Of Day

northcoast power sweep plays for sunday

4* carolina
3* detroit
2* chicago
2* oakland

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL

Buffalo (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS)

The Bills travel to take on the Steelers at Heinz Field, with the two squads entering the game under markedly different circumstances.
Buffalo suffered a heartbreaking last-second Week 1 defeat at the hands – or foot – of Denver’s Jason Elam, who kicked a field goal with no time left to give the Broncos a 15-14 win, though the Bills cashed as a three-point dog. Bills QB J.P. Losman got to open at home against a defense with six new starters, but he threw for just 97 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.
Pittsburgh hammered the Browns 34-7 a 4½-point road favorite in coach Mike Tomlin’s debut. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked more like he did in 2005, throwing for four touchdowns and 160 yards in an efficient effort. Running back Willie Parker got out of the gate quickly as well, with 27 carries for 109 yards.
The Bills are on ATS runs of 8-2 overall and 10-2 in Week 2 games.
The Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home openers.
The “over” is 36-15-2 in the last 53 at Heinz Field, including 14-1-1 in the last 16. Also, the over is 46-22-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 70 games as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER



Cincinnati (1-0 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS)

For the second straight week, these AFC North teams face division rivals when the Bengals head across the state of Ohio to meet the Browns.
Cleveland will hope a second straight home game can straighten out its problems, particularly at quarterback, after getting blown out 34-7 by Pittsburgh as a 4½-point pup. In a highly unusual move, the Browns this week traded starting QB Charlie Frye to Seattle after Frye’s dismal performance against the Steelers (4-for-10 passing for 34 yards, 1 INT, five sacks). The trade gives Derek Anderson the starting job and moves first-round draft choice Brady Quinn up to No. 2.
Cincinnati opened with Monday’s 27-20 home victory over Baltimore, covering as a 2½-point favorite. QB Carson Palmer had a steady game, going 20-for-32 for 194 yards and two TDs, with no INTs, and the Bengals’ defense forced six Ravens turnovers.
The Bengals won and covered both games against the Browns last year by a combined score of 64-17, and the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Also, coach Marvin Lewis has Cincinnati on a 15-4-1 ATS run in its last 20 road games.
The Browns are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC North opponents and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 when installed as a home underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI



Indianapolis (1-0 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (1-0 SU and ATS)

Two AFC South rivals both looking to get an early jump on the division lead meet up in Nashville as the Super Bowl champion Colts take on the Titans at LP Field.
After a sluggish first half in its Sept. 6 opener, Indianapolis ran way from the New Orleans Saints 41-10 as a six-point home favorite. QB Peyton Manning hit on 18 of 30 passes for 288 yards and three TDs, with no sacks and no INTs, for a sterling 125.4 QB rating.
Tennessee, meanwhile, slugged it out in a much lower-scoring affair in its opener, upsetting the Jaguars 13-10 as a 7-point road underdog. RB Chris Brown led the way with 19 carries for 175 yards. QB Vince Young didn’t do much, with just 78 passing yards (1 INT) and 22 rushing yards, but he ran for one TD as the Titans rolled up 282 rushing yards
The Titans gave the Colts fits last year, losing at Indy 14-13 as a 17-point dog and winning at home 20-17 as a seven-point pup on a 60-yard last-second field goal.
Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games, 10-1 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home pup.
Indianapolis is mired in ATS slumps of 3-7 on the road, 1-5 as a road chalk and 0-4 ATS in divisional road games. In fact, the Colts were upset in all three of their AFC South road contests in 2006

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE


Houston (1-0 SU and ATS) at Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS)

The Texans, who are above .500 for one of the few times in franchise history, meet the Panthers in a matchup of teams coming off blowout victories in Week 1.
Houston, behind new quarterback Matt Schaub, rolled to a 20-3 victory over Kansas City as a 3½-point home favorite. Schaub was sharp in his first start since 2005, going 16-for-22 for 225 yards and a TD, though he did throw one pick and was sacked twice. Wideout Andre Johnson had seven catches for 142 yards, including a 77-yard touchdown, and Houston’s defense allowed just 219 total yards and forced four turnovers, with 2006 No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams returning a fumble for a TD.
Carolina notched a road win at St. Louis in its season opener, beating the Rams 27-13 as a 1½-point underdog. Jake Delhomme looked like his old self, completing 18 of 27 for 201 yards and three TDS, with no INTs and no sacks.
The Panthers are 5-12 since 2004 when laying seven points or fewer, and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Also, Carolina is 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 as a home favorite of 3½ points or more.
The “under” is 20-6-2 in Carolina’s last 28 games in September, and the “under” is 12-2-1 in the Texans’ last 15 as a road underdog of 3½ to 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER


San Francisco (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-1 SU and ATS)

Two NFC West rivals square off when the 49ers travel to the Edward Jones Dome to meet the Rams.
San Francisco rallied in the final minutes of the fourth quarter to beat Arizona 20-17 as a 3½-point home chalk Monday night. The 49ers were stagnant on offense all night until the final TD drive of 86 yards. Alex Smith completed just 15 of 31 passes for a paltry 126 yards, with no TDS and three sacks, and the 49ers finished with just 194 total yards.
St. Louis had a very disappointing season debut, losing 27-13 to Carolina as a 1½-point home favorite.. QB Marc Bulger had a very average effort, completing 22 of 42 for 167 yards and one TD, and he didn’t get much help from star RB Steven Jackson, who looked rusty in rushing for just 58 yards on 18 carries. Finally, the Rams’ offense suffered a huge hit when left tackle Orlando Pace went down with a season-ending injury.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in the last five games of this series (3-2 SU), including covering the number in both meetings last year. Also, Mike Nolan’s squad is on a 12-4-2 ATS run when visiting St. Louis.
The 49ers have cashed in six of their last seven as an underdog.
The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against division opponents and 0-8 ATS as a home favorite against divisional foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO


Green Bay (1-0 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (0-1 SU and ATS)

The turnover-producing Packers travel to the Meadowlands to take on a beat-up Giants squad that may be without starting QB Eli Manning.
Green Bay eked out a 16-13 victory over Philadelphia as a three-point home pup in Week 1, but it certainly didn’t have much to do with Brett Favre (23 of 42 passing, 206 yards, 1 INT). Rather, the Eagles muffed two punts, and the Packers turned those into an early touchdown and a last-second, 42-yard game-sealing field goal from rookie Mason Crosby. Crosby (3-for-3) also hit a 53-yarder in his debut.
New York found itself in a Sunday night shootout with the Cowboys, winding up on the losing end in more ways than one in a 45-35 defeat as a 6½-point road underdog. Manning had a spectacular outing, going 28 of 41 for 312 yards and four TDS, with one INT. But he suffered an injured right shoulder, and his status for today is uncertain. The Giants also lost RB Brandon Jacobs and sacks leader Osi Umenyiora to knee injuries. Jacobs is out for this game, but Umenyiora is listed as probable.
The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against NFC opponents.
The “under” was 6-2 for the Giants at home last year and is 12-6 at the Meadowlands since 2005.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER



Atlanta (0-1 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (0-1 SU and ATS)

Two teams that got off to slow starts offensively in Week 1 will look to right the ship when the Falcons take on the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Atlanta ushered in the Joey Harrington era with little success in a 24-3 loss to Minnesota as a three-point road dog. Harrington completed a respectable 23 of 32 passes for 199 yards, but he threw two INTs (both returned for TDs) and was sacked six times.
Jacksonville opened its season at home as a seven-point favorite against Tennessee, only to get surprisingly run over by the Titans’ ground attack (282 rushing yards) and stifled offensively in a 13-10 loss. QB David Garrard, who took over the starting post just a few days earlier after Byron Leftwich was cut, went 17-for-30 for 204 yards with no TDs, one INT and three sacks. RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew also failed to get on track, combining for just 48 yards on 13 carries.
The Jaguars are 17-6 ATS hosting an NFC team, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 17-10-2 ATS in their last 29 home contests. Also, despite last week’s non-cover, Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 September games.
Atlanta is in a 3-8-1 ATS funk in Week 2.
The “under” is 9-1 in the Falcons’ last 10 games and 27-9-1 in their last 37 road games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE and UNDER


New Orleans (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-1 SU and ATS)

The Saints hit the road for the second consecutive week, this time traveling to face the NFC South rival Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
New Orleans had the unenviable task of taking on the reigning Super Bowl champs in Indianapolis on Sept. 6, and while the Saints hung around in a low-scoring first half, they couldn’t keep up in the second half, falling 41-10 as a six-point road underdog. Drew Brees, coming off a sensational year and a tremendous preseason, was 28-for-41, but he managed just 192 yards and threw two INTs. Star RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister combined for just 76 rushing yards as the vaunted Saints offense failed to score a touchdown.
Jeff Garcia’s debut with Tampa Bay wasn’t one to remember, as the QB completed 19 of 27 for 201 yards, with no TDS and three sacks in the Buccaneers’ 20-6 loss at Seattle as six-point road pups. Cadillac Williams had 12 carries for 60 yards before leaving with an apparent rib injury, but he is listed as probable for this one.
New Orleans won both meetings SU last year (1-1 ATS), including a 31-14 rout of the Bucs as a one-point road chalk. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings.
Despite failing to cover at Indy last week, Sean Payton’s squad is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 on the highway. Also, the Saints are on a 19-3-1 ATS run in division road games.
Tampa Bay is on negative ATS runs of 2-8-1 overall, and 1-7-1 ATS NFC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS


Minnesota (1-0 SU and ATS) at Detroit (1-0 SU and ATS)

First place in the NFC North is on the line as the Vikings look to continue their dominance of the Lions when they visit Ford Field.
Minnesota opened up with an easy 24-3 rout of Atlanta as a three-point home chalk. The Vikings didn’t get much from young QB Tarvaris Jackson (13 of 23 for 163 yards, one TD, one INT), but he got a lot of help from rookie RB Adrian Peterson (19 carries, 103 yards) and a strong defense (two TDs).
QB Jon Kitna, who guaranteed a 10-win season for Detroit heading into this year, got off on the right foot as he led the Lions to a 36-21 rout of Oakland as a 21/2-point road pup. Kitna completed 27 of 36 passes for 289 yards and three TDS, but he threw a pair of INTs. New RB Tatum Bell debut was also solid in his debut with Detroit, finishing with 87 rushing yards and one TD on 15 caries.
Minnesota has owned the Lions the last five years, winning all 10 meetings, including a pair of blowouts in 2006 (26-17 at home and 30-20 on the road). The Vikings have cashed in each of the last four battles.
The Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against NFC North rivals, and they are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 within the NFC.
Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against NFC teams.
In this series, the Vikings are on a 10-0 SU run, including 4-0 ATS.
The over is 9-3 the last 12 times these squads have faced off in Detroit.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA



Dallas (1-0 SU and ATS) at Miami (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)

Quarterback Tony Romo and the Cowboys take their high-octane offense on the road for an interconference clash against the Dolphins.
Dallas got out of the gate fast, putting up six TDs in a 45-35 victory over the New York Giants as a 6½-point home favorite. Romo accounted for five TDS, completing 15 of 24 passes for 345 yards (23 yards per completion) and four TDs, while also running for another score. The Cowboys’ running back tandem of Julius Jones and Marion Barber combined for 131 rushing yards and one TD.
The Cowboys’ win came at a price, as starting defensive tackle Jason Ferguson suffered a season-ending biceps injury.
New QB Trent Green (24 of 38, 219 yards, one TD) didn’t really hurt Miami in his debut, but neither did he light it up in the Dolphins’ 16-13 overtime loss to Washington as three-point road ‘dogs. RB Ronnie Brown didn’t do much to help Green, gaining a meager 32 yards on 11 carries.
Dallas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games against AFC opponents. However, Miami is only 8-22 ATS in its last 30 home games.
For the Cowboys, the “over” is on runs of 7-2-2 on the road, 6-1-2 as road favorites, and 5-1-1 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER



Seattle (1-0 SU and ATS) at Arizona (0-1, 1-0 ATS)

The Seahawks open NFC West play when they take on the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona.
Seattle started slowly last week against Tampa Bay, falling behind 6-0 before scoring the final 20 points in an easy 20-6 victory as six-point home favorites. QB Matt Hasselbeck connected on 17 of 24 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown, spreading the ball around to seven receivers. Shaun Alexander, who was hampered by injuries in 2006, was back to his old form, with 27 carries for 105 yards and a TD.
Arizona continued its stumbling ways in a mistake-filled 20-17 loss to San Francisco, though the Cardinals did barely cash as a 3½-point road underdog. Second-year QB Matt Leinart still looked like a rookie, completing 14 of 28 for a paltry 102 yards, with one TD and two INTs. RB Edgerrin James was a lone bright spot offensively, finishing with 92 yards and a TD on 26 carries. However, the Cardinals racked up 10 penalties, and the defense allowed the Niners to go 86 yards for the game-winning score with less than a minute to play.
The Seahawks went 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year, including a 27-21 loss to the Cardinals as a three-point chalk. Seattle has also failed to cash in its last five games against NFC West rivals and is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite, with the lone cover coming last week.
The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, 4-0 ATS following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four against division opponents.
The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA



N.Y. Jets (0-1 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (0-1 SU and ATS)

Two playoff teams from last year look to get back on track following Week 1 losses when the Jets meet the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.
New York, whether the victim of videotaped spying or not, got drilled by New England 38-14 as 6½-point home underdogs. QB Chad Pennington was efficient, if not effective, completing 16 of 21 passes for 167 yards and two TDs. But he was sacked four times, and he’s listed as questionable this week because of an ankle injury. The Jets’ rushing game netted just 60 yards, with new RB Thomas Jones carrying 14 times for 42 yards.
Baltimore committed six turnovers in Monday’s 27-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 2½-point road pup. QB Steve McNair was far from his best, committing four of the six turnovers, and he finished 20 of 34 passes for 204 yards, with one INT before leaving the game late with a strained groin. Like Pennington, McNair is a game-time decision.
The Jets are mired in a 3-9 ATS slump in non-divisional road games. On the bright side, though, they’re on ATS runs of 4-0 following a SU defeat and 8-0 following an ATS loss.
The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games, 19-10-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, and 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 as a home chalk. Finally, Baltimore is on a 24-9-1 ATS run hosting a non-divisional opponent.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE


Oakland (0-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-0, 0-1 ATS)

These longtime AFC West rivals meet up for the first time in 2007, when the Raiders travel to Invesco Filed in Denver to take on the Broncos.
Oakland opened the season with a 36-21 home loss to Detroit as a 2½-point favorite. QB Josh McCown started ahead of Daunte Culpepper and completed 30 of 40 passes for 313 yards and two TDs, but he also threw two picks, was sacked three times and fumbled three times. McCown suffered in an injury in the loss and is expected to sit this one out, paving the way for Culpepper to make his Raiders debut.
Denver is coming off a stunning victory, as it beat Buffalo 15-14 as three-point road chalk on a Jason Elam field goal as time expired. QB Jay Cutler, in just his sixth start, had a couple of dubious decisions but was solid overall, going 23-for-39 for 309 yards with one TD and one INT, and he converted two fourth downs on the game-winning drive. Also, RB Travis Henry had a strong debut for the Broncos with 23 carries for 139 yards and three catches for another 44 yards.
Denver swept the season series from Oakland last year, winning 13-3 at ome and 17-13 on the road. However, the Raiders got the cash both times, covering as a 14-point road underdog and nine-point home pup.
The Raiders are 7-3 ATS as a divisional dog of seven points or more, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC West foes.
The Broncos, who were the worst bet-on team in the NFL last year at 5-11 ATS, are now 1-8 in their last nine overall. They’re also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games (1-7 ATS last season) and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 as a favorite of seven points or more against divisional opponents.
The “under” is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these two, 10-1-2 in the Raiders’ last 13 road games, and 11-2 in the Raiders’ last 13 games overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND and UNDER



Kansas City (0-1 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two playoff teams from a year ago look for their first win when the Chiefs meet the defending NFC-champion Bears at Soldier Field.
Kansas City is coming off a sluggish offensive effort in a 20-3 loss to Houston as 3½-point road underdogs. QB Damon Huard completed 22 of 33 passes for 168 yards, but had no TDs and two INTs to go with three sacks. RB Larry Johnson, who held out most of the preseason, was eased back in with just 10 carries for only 43 yards, as the Chiefs finished with a paltry 219 total yards.
Chicago battled San Diego in a game featuring two of the league’s top defenses, but the Bears couldn’t figure out a way to crack the end zone in a 14-3 loss as a six-point road dog. QB Rex Grossman couldn’t get anything going, completing just 12 of 23 passes for 145 yards with no TDs, one INT and three sacks. Also, the Bears, who let last year’s leading rusher Thomas Jones go to the Jets, got just 80 rushing yards combined from Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson, and each lost a fumble.
The Chiefs are mired in ATS slumps of 1-5 as a visitor, 3-9-1 as a road underdog and 4-13-1 when traveling to face NFC opponents.
The Bears, who lost star safety Mike Brown (torn ACL) to his seemingly annual season-ending injury last week, are 17-5 ATS when hosting an AFC team and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO





San Diego (1-0 SU and ATS) at New England (1-0 SU and ATS)

The Chargers will look to gain a measure of revenge for their home playoff loss to the Patriots last season in a much-anticipated matchup of two of the league’s top teams at Gillette Stadium.
San Diego couldn’t get much going offensively against a stout Bears defense in Week 1, but the Chargers put up two second-half TDs to earn a 14-3 win as a six-point home chalk. Neither Philip Rivers nor LaDainian Tomlinson looked like the superstars they were last season. Rivers completed 22 of 31 for 190 yards with no TDs, one INT and a lost fumble, and Tomlinson – who didn’t play a down in the preseason – rushed 17 times for just 25 yards. But Tomlinson got San Diego on the board with a TD pass to Antonio Gates and later scored on a 7-yard run.
New England is currently mired in “Spygate” after its 38-14 rout of the New York Jets as 6½-point road favorites. The videotape incident aside, the Patriots got off to a hot start, with QB Tom Brady completing 22 of 28 passes for 297 yards and three TDs, with no INTs and no sacks. Also, wideout Randy Moss instantly resurrected his career with nine catches for 183 yards and a TD in his New England debut.
San Diego is 31-15-2 ATS in its last 48 games overall and 16-8 SU (16-6-2 ATS) in its last 24 road games. The Chargers are also a stunning 12-1-2 SU in their last 15 games as an underdog, and 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 as a road underdog.
The Chargers’ three losses last year all came by three points, including the 24-21 playoff setback to New England in January.
San Diego crushed the Patriots 41-17 as a four-point road underdog in their most recent visit to Foxboro in 2005. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.
The Patriots went 2-5-1 ATS last season at home, but they’re 49-23-3 ATS in their last 75 games overall.
The under is 10-4 in the last 14 contests at Gillette Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
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"Good Looking" Lloyd

Will Cover

Sunday, September 16th!

MINNESOTA VIKINGS plus vs the Lions. 4:05pm EST

COVER STORY: Simply can't buck these numbers as we note that Minnesota has gone 8-0 SU last eight games against Detroit, are 4-0 ATS last four, and 3-1 ATS last four in MoTown! Vikes' coach Brad Childress is also 3-1 ATS as a dog versus division foes. Detroit is coming off a 36-21 road victory in Oakland last week, but Ford Field has not been kind to the Lions as they have gone a horrid 2-9 SU last 11 home games. Rod Marinelli went 3-13 SU and 6-10 ATS in his first year as head coach in Detroit, including 1-5 ATS against division opponents. QB Kitna vows 10 wins for the Lions this year, but we are not buying just yet. Take the points with the VIKINGS!

LT PROFITS

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers o37.5 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Buffalo Bills, Pitt Steelers Over 37.5

While we understand why the total in this game between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers is rather low, we feel that the Steelers may put up around 28 points themselves here.
The Bills gave it their all in a tough 15-14 home loss to Denver on opening week, but truth be told, they actually allowed the Broncos to march up and down the field. Buffalo allowed 470 total yards in that contest, and they were equally bad against the run (5.3 yards per rush) and the pass (7.7 yards per attempt).
That is bad news against a Steelers offense that looked crisp with a healthy Roethlisberger last week, as Pittsburgh piled up 365 yards vs. the Cleveland Browns in a 34-7 rout. We would not be surprised if the Steelers actually topped that already impressive yardage total here, and they should be able to score with relative ease.
All that said, we are not fond with the idea of laying close to double digits in the NFL. However, if the Steelers are as effective as we expect offensively, the Bills may only need to score 10 points or mort to push this game Over, which is certainly attainable.

Steelers Over 37.5



Tennessee Titans +7.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 16 '07 1:00p
Tennessee Titans +7 vs. Colts

The Indianapolis Colts exploded in the second half of their season opener vs. New Orleans, but we feel they will have their hands full as road favorites vs. the young Tennessee Titans here.
The Titans went into Jacksonville and upset the Jaguars in Week 1, amassing an amazing 282 yards on the ground! They will no doubt employ that same strategy here in an attempt to keep Peyton Manning and Co. off the field for as long as possible. Remember also that the Titans nearly beat the Colts twice last year, losing just 14-13 at Indianapolis after leading 13-0 before pulling off the 20-17 upset in this stadium.
Now the Colts allowed over 100 yards rushing in every single regular season game last season, but they looked better in the 2007 opener, although they still extended that streak by allowing the Saints 106 rushing yards. This assignment is tougher though, as not only do they have to content with running back Chris Brown, but they also must chase one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football in Vince Young.
We expect this matchup to be a carbon copy of the two meetings last season, with the Titans controlling the clock with their ground game, and with the winner on the field not determined until the very late stages.

Titans +7
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HUDDLE UP SPORTS-paid and confirmed


500,000* Lock:
Carolina -6'

Alex Anthony's Nfl Winners:
>
> To Win 5 Units:
>
> New Orleans -3 Buy The Hook
> Bengals -7
> Dallas -3 Buy The Hook
> Seattle -2 Buy The Hook
> San Diego +4 Buy The Hook

Kelso Sturgeon

10 units Atlanta + 10 @ Jacksonville
5 units Lions -3 v. Minn
5 units Bears -12 v. KC
5 units Chargers +3.5 @ Pats