$200 a Barrel of Oil around the corner?

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Any predictions on how bad this economy gets in the next few years with the housing market plummeting, dollar at all time low, and oil looking to go through the roof?

I might have to find a book that pays out in Euros. Anyone know of any?

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/september2007/170907_middle_class.htm

You will have the shorting opportunity of a lifetime next year. To cut like this in the face of obvious inflation is idiotic...Posted in the sell sell sell thread about this. Europe has already saved 5% on their energy supplies strictly b/c of the exchange rate....And more and more countries are buying oil in Euros. 200 is high, but 125 in the next year....not out of the question if he continues to cut.
 

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euro is a very flawed currency in itself as well.
 

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I don't think it's possible for $200 oil. Alternatives become feasible at that price.
 

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euro is a very flawed currency in itself as well.

Agreed but its the direct competitor right now. And I've never been impressed with the economy in Europe. This has more to do with the U.S. inflation and costs of wars and tax cuts than a strong Europe.
 

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i got a bad ass Shwinn bike I can ride around if oil becomes $200 a barrel.
 

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I guess I should diversify more of my USD backed assets into different currencies. Might look into opening and account at everbank. Any ideas on what currencies are good to hold right now? I was going to buy more gold, but with prices on the rise fast, I don't want to buy when it's at a potential peak.
 

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If that there oil goes to even $91.31 a bucket we should just offer a decent price and protection for the oil we need. If we can get that oil for, lets say $17.03 per bucket, we just take it. Fair is fair. If other Countries don't like it they can just lump it. This is my take and solution to this here issue.

:dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :dancefool :ohno:
 

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I don't think it's possible for $200 oil. Alternatives become feasible at that price.


Long before that price Levi.

But shhhhh, don't interrupt the love vest going on here.
 

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you all realize the price of the raw materials to produce this alternative energy will go up at the same time right? We are in asset price inflation across the board, nothing has been immune as the fed continues on this path of print to infinity. It's been years of everything up except the USD and it seems to be continuing for now at least.
 

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you all realize the price of the raw materials to produce this alternative energy will go up at the same time right? We are in asset price inflation across the board, nothing has been immune as the fed continues on this path of print to infinity. It's been years of everything up except the USD and it seems to be continuing for now at least.


sell, sell, sell

if you still have anything left

:lol:
 

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The biofuel industry is pushing food prices up already.<br>
Corn is up 100%....so far.<br>
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6481029.stm<br>
<br>
Food can be very inflationary, way moreso than oil.<br>
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fuck...I hope food doesn't get expensive again...that would REALLY mess things up.<br>
 

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The biofuel industry is pushing food prices up already.

Corn is up 100%....so far.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6481029.stm



Food can be very inflationary, way moreso than oil.



fuck...I hope food doesn't get expensive again...that would REALLY mess things up.

One of the many reasons why ethanol is a poor choice....Tar Sands are the easiest way to increase oil, though difficult to get out of the sand. They are profitable at anything over 60 dollar oil...Fuel cells? ANything really.
 

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sell, sell, sell

if you still have anything left

:lol:

i'm diversified willie i'm not a moron :103631605 plus home builder shorts been treating me really well for a while now.
 

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One of the many reasons why ethanol is a poor choice....Tar Sands are the easiest way to increase oil, though difficult to get out of the sand. They are profitable at anything over 60 dollar oil...Fuel cells? ANything really.

yeah we aren't short on oil, we are short on cheap oil....as for profitability on the tar sands due to the fact that you have to mine it and than process it....as those costs go up (mining involves using oil, heavy equiptment, etc to extract it although open pit mining isn't too energy intensive) so to does the cost to mine the tar sands....as well as the energy input that goes into the processing steps.

Also you have the "global warming" issues as this isn't an environmentally friendly way to go about obtaining oil.

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here's a little background on that tar sands


Tar sands (also referred to as oil sands) are a combination of clay, sand, water, and bitumen, a heavy black viscous oil. Tar sands can be mined and processed to extract the oil-rich bitumen, which is then refined into oil. The bitumen in tar sands cannot be pumped from the ground in its natural state; instead tar sand deposits are mined, usually using strip mining or open pit techniques or produced in-situ by underground heating or other tertiary recovery processes.

Tar sands are mined and processed to generate oil similar to oil pumped from conventional oil wells, but extracting oil from tar sands is more complex than conventional oil recovery. Oil sands recovery processes include extraction and separation systems to separate the bitumen from the clay, sand, and water that make up the tar sands. Bitumen also requires additional upgrading before it can be refined. Because it is so viscous (thick), it also requires dilution with lighter hydrocarbons to make it transportable by pipelines.

Tar Sands Resources

Most of the world's oil (more than 5 trillion barrels) is in the form of tar sands, although it is not all recoverable. While tar sands are found in many places worldwide, the largest deposits in the world are found in Canada (Alberta) and Venezuela, which each have about one-third of the world's total tar sands resources, and much of the rest is found in various countries in the Middle East. In the United States, tar sands resources are primarily concentrated in Eastern Utah, mostly on public lands. The in-place tar sands oil resources in Utah are estimated at 12 to 20 billion barrels.

The Tar Sands Industry

Currently, oil is not produced from tar sands on a significant commercial level in the United States; in fact, only Canada has a large-scale commercial tar sands industry, though a small amount of oil from tar sands is produced commercially in Venezuela. The Canadian tar sands industry is centered in Alberta, and more than one million barrels of synthetic oil are produced from these resources per day. Currently, tar sands represent about 40% of Canada's oil production, and output is expanding rapidly. The tar sands are extracted both by mining and in situ recovery methods (see below). Canadian tar sands are different than U.S. tar sands in that Canadian tar sands are water wetted, while U.S tar sands are hydrocarbon wetted. As a result of this difference, extraction techniques for the tar sands in Utah will be different than for those in Alberta.


Recently, prices for crude oil have again risen to levels that may make tar-sands-based oil production in the United States commercially attractive, and both government and industry are interested in pursuing the development of tar sands oil resources as an alternative to conventional oil.

Tar Sands Extraction and Processing


Tar sands deposits near the surface can be recovered by open pit mining techniques. New methods introduced in the 1990s considerably improved the efficiency of tar sands mining, thus reducing the cost. These systems use large hydraulic and electrically powered shovels to dig up tar sands and load them into enormous trucks that can carry up to 320 tons of tar sands per load.

After mining, the tar sands are transported to an extraction plant, where a hot water process separates the bitumen from sand, water, and minerals. The separation takes place in separation cells. Hot water is added to the sand, and the resulting slurry is piped to the extraction plant where it is agitated. The combination of hot water and agitation releases bitumen from the oil sand, and causes tiny air bubbles to attach to the bitumen droplets, that float to the top of the separation vessel, where the bitumen can be skimmed off. Further processing removes residual water and solids. The bitumen is then transported and eventually upgraded into synthetic crude oil. About two tons of tar sands are required to produce one barrel of oil. Roughly 75% of the bitumen can be recovered from sand. After oil extraction, the spent sand and other materials are then returned to the mine, which is eventually reclaimed.


In-situ production methods are used on bitumen deposits buried too deep for mining to be economical. These techniques include steam injection, solvent injection, and firefloods, in which oxygen is injected and part of the resource burned to provide heat. So far steam injection has been the favoured method. Some of these extraction methods require large amounts of both water and energy (for heating and pumping).


Both mining and processing of tar sands involve a variety of environmental impacts, such as global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, disturbance of mined land; impacts on wildlife and air and water quality. The development of a commercial tar sands industry in the U.S. would also have significant social and economic impacts on local communities. Of special concern in the relatively arid western United States is the large amount of water required for tar sands processing; currently, tar sands extraction and processing require several barrels of water for each barrel of oil produced, though some of the water can be recycled.
 

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According to the Journal: "heavy oil has big economic and environmental drawbacks. It costs more to produce and takes more energy to turn into gasoline than traditional light oil. Recovering and processing Fort McMurray's heavy crude releases up to three times as much greenhouse gas as producing conventional crude. And upgrading it into refined products, such as gasoline or diesel, will require a gigantic investment to retool global refineries."

The extraction process is so labor intensive and requires so much heat, in order to extract the oil from the tar sand that "Total briefly floated the idea of building a nuclear-power plant" in Fort Mc Murray.

In other words, just because new oil is likely to be more plentiful, processing costs will likely keep prices higher than in the past, and the toll on the environment won't be fully known for years to decades.

Indeed, some effects are already visible as "Canada, which exports more oil to the U.S. than any other country, already is having trouble meeting its pledge to cut CO2 emissions largely because of its mushrooming heavy-oil production. By 2015, Canada's Fort McMurray region, population 61,000, is expected to emit more greenhouse gases than Denmark, a country of 5.4 million people."

Even more alarming is this: "In northern Alberta, the oil-sands boom is remaking the landscape. The mining operations have clear-cut thousands of acres of trees and dug 200-foot-deep pits. The region is dotted with large man-made lakes filled with leftover waste from the mining operations. To chase off migratory birds, propane cannons go off at random intervals and scarecrows stand guard on floating barrels."
 

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bottom line there is no easy fix to our energy problems, other than shrinking consumption to more reasonable levels on a global scale.
 

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got a potential storm lurking in the gulf too might have no impact on oil prices might have alot?

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/index.html

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Oil at New Records for 7th Straight Day
Wednesday September 19, 4:11 pm ET
By John Wilen, AP Business Writer
Oil Futures Set New Records for 7th Straight Session on Inventory Report, Refinery Problems

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices reached record highs for the seventh straight session Wednesday after refineries in California and Texas said they had new outages and the government reported surprisingly large declines in oil inventories.


While oil futures jumped to a new trading high of $82.51 a barrel in the moments after the inventory report was released in the morning, they spent much of the day alternating between gains and losses before reports of refinery outages led to late-session buying.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery rose 42 cents to settle at a record $81.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that ExxonMobil Corp. shut down a crude processing unit at its 348,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Beaumont, Texas, and that a piece of gasoline-making equipment at Chevron's 266,000 barrel-a-day refinery in El Segundo, Calif., had been shut down. The impact on production was unclear.

Nymex gasoline rose 3.31 cents to settle at $2.0934 a gallon.

Meanwhile, analysts said Wednesday's report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration was mixed. Crude inventories fell last week, but much of that decline appears to be because Hurricane Humberto disrupted shipping and refinery operations along the Gulf Coast, said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc.

Crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels during the week ended Sept. 14, the EIA said, more than double the 1.5 million-barrel decline analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, on average, had expected. However, crude inventories remain at the upper end of their average range for this time of year, the EIA said.

Crude supplies dropped much more along the Gulf than at the key Nymex delivery point of Cushing, Okla.

"It's perhaps less of a support to the market than it might appear at first glance," Evans said.

Refinery utilization fell by 0.9 percentage point to 89.6 percent of capacity. Analysts expected a decline of 0.5 percentage point. However, gasoline supplies rose by 400,000 barrels, the EIA said, countering analyst predictions of a 1.3 million-barrel decline.

Evans attributed that increase to higher gasoline production and lower demand. Despite the decline in refinery utilization, gasoline production rose by 159,000 barrels a day, on average. Demand, meanwhile, fell by 146,000 barrels last week.

"Demand is a little bit languid at this point," said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Many analysts attribute the lower demand to high gas prices and the end of the peak summer driving season. At the pump, gas prices rose 0.3 cent overnight to a national average of $2.79 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices, which typically lag the futures market, peaked at $3.227 a gallon in late May.

The EIA also reported that distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by 1.5 million barrels last week, more than the 1.1 million analysts expected.

Heating oil futures rose 0.3 cent to settle at $2.2453 a gallon.

Crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels last week, an increase of 242,000 barrels per day. Gasoline imports averaged 1 million barrels a day, down slightly from a week earlier.

Oil and natural gas investors appeared unconcerned about tropical weather systems near Florida and in the central Atlantic. Nymex natural gas futures fell 38.8 cents to settle at $6.18 per 1,000 cubic feet.

While the National Hurricane Center says the Florida system could enter the Gulf of Mexico and develop into a stronger tropical storm over the next several days, traders don't see the threat to critical oil and gas installations as imminent, Evans said.

However, companies including Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC and Chevron Corp. said they would evacuate nonessential personnel from installations in the Gulf as a precaution.

In London, November Brent crude rose 88 cents to settle at $78.47 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
 

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