Service Plays 9/20/07

diehardsabre · Sep 20, 2007

Michael Cannon

Complimentary Selection THURSDAY'S PLAY

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A loser on the Dodgers last night, but I'm still on a 7-2 run with my last nine Bonus Plays.

Take the White Sox as the small road dog this afternoon over the Royals.

Jon Garland will start for Chicago and he's been pitching well lately.

The right-hander has allowed only one earned run in each of his last three starts, but is just 1-2 due to a lack of run support.

The numbers back him tonight, however, as he's 15-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 28 career games against Kansas City, including a 2-0 record with a 0.59 ERA in two starts this season.

His mound opponent, Zack Greinke, hasn't been as fortunate against the White Sox in his career. The right-hander is just 1-5 with a 4.67 ERA in eight lifetime outings against the ChiSox.

Take the White Sox as they grab the road win.

3? CHICAGO WHITE SOX
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On a 1? to 5? basis
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diehardsabre · Sep 20, 2007

Chris Jordans Free Pick

Today's Complimentary Selection

Complimentary Plays are based on 1♦ to 5♦

For Thursday we're playing the Mets in Florida, as the road team is the value play here.

Analysis on this game by 3 p.m. eastern

3♦ METS

diehardsabre · Sep 20, 2007

Karl Garretts Free Pick

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Today's Complimentary Selection 3-1 Bonus Play run the last 4 days, and tonight the G-Man is forced to lay the wood with the Mets as they take on the Marlins and Dontrelle Willis.

The D-Train has not lived up to his past success this season, as he is just 9-15 for the year, and the "home-cooking" is a big reason for that dismal mark, as Willis is just 3-9 at home with a 5.59 ERA.

The Mets just snapped a scary 5-game losing streak, and have had their way with the Marlins in South Florida this season winning all 5 games played!

New York is 15-8 dating back to 2005 in Florida's stadium, and they do have the steely vet Tom Glavine on the bump tonight.

Glavine is as steady as they come, and he has only allowed 4 earned runs over his last 27-plus innings of work for a 2-0 mark.

The G-Man thinks the Mets recent funk is now over, and he will be avoiding a ride on the D-Train tonight, and opting for a stop on the Mets' express!

Lay the road wood here and go with the Mets.

2? METS
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

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diehardsabre · Sep 20, 2007

Sorry 'bout the F up there.

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Sep 20 2007 2:10PM

Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Reason: There's not too many good things to write about these two very bad teams. The White Sox are playing better having won 5 of their last 7 games while the Royals are 3-11 in their last 14 games. Chicago sends Garland to the mouns and the White Sox have won his last 3 starts vs. KC and 4 of the last 5. KC has lost 8 of their last 10 home games. The Royals are 8-20 in Greinke's last 28 home starts. In his last 52 starts overall the Royals are 17-35. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 visits to Kansas.

Play on the White Sox +.

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Platinum Plays

MLB: the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES - 130 Over the Washington Nationals

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

The Sports Advisors

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (78-73) at Atlanta (79-73)
The Brewers’ quest for their first playoff berth in 25 years continues at Turner Field in Atlanta, as Jeff Suppan (10-11, 4.72) is set to oppose the Braves’ Lance Cormier (2-6, 7.09).
Milwaukee had a four-game winning streak snapped with last night’s critical 5-4 loss at Houston. Although the Brewers are still 12-6 in their last 18 overall, they now trail the Cubs by a game in the race for the N.L. Central crown.
Although their playoff hopes are virtually dead, the Braves have been playing well lately, winning nine of their last 13, including the last four in a row following Wednesday’s 5-1 win over Florida. During this stretch, Bobby Cox’s team is 6-1 at home.
Suppan has given up either two or three earned runs in six consecutive starts, but the Brewers are just 3-3 in those outings. However, all three wins have come in the last three games, with Suppan posting a 4.15 ERA.
The Brewers are just 3-7 in Suppan’s last 10 road starts, with the righthander going just 3-8 with a 5.44 ERA on the highway for the season. Also, Suppan is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta.
Cormier is coming off back-to-back 7-4 losses to the Nationals. On Saturday in D.C., the righthander lasted just two innings after giving up five runs (four earned) on three hits and four walks. The Braves are just 3-6 in the righthander’s nine starts this year.
Cormier is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in five home appearances (four starts). Also, his experience against Milwaukee consists of just five relief appearances, giving up five runs (four earned) on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings (9.82 ERA).
The under is 9-4 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games. The under is also 4-1 in Suppan’s last five outings. However, the over is 6-3 when Cormier starts this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Seattle (81-79) at L.A. Angels (90-62)
The Angels can move a step closer to wrapping up the A.L. West when they welcome the Mariners to Anaheim for a four-game weekend series. Jered Weaver (12-7, 3.90) will take the ball for Los Angeles against Mariners rookie Ryan Feierabend (1-4, 6.80).
L.A. completed a three-game sweep of the Devil Rays with back-to-back 2-1 victories on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although the Angels are just 10-6 in their last 16 games, they still lead Seattle by 8½ games and have reduced their magic number to three.
The Mariners head south from Oakland, where they just swept a three-game series from the A’s, capped by Wednesday’s 9-5 win. Seattle has followed up a 2-15 slump by going 6-2 in its last eight.
The Angels have owned Seattle this year, going 11-4, including 5-1 at home. Going back to last year, L.A. is 19-7 against the Mariners.
Weaver is coming off a dominating effort against the White Sox, as he allowed just a run on four hits in six innings with one walk and eight strikeouts in a 2-1 road win. The Angels are 6-2 in Weaver’s last eight starts, with the righthander giving up two runs or less in all six wins.
Weaver is 6-3 with a 3.93 ERA in 13 home starts, with the Angels going 9-4 in those contests. He’s also 3-1 with a 4.34 ERA in six career starts against Seattle, giving up a total of two earned runs in 22 innings in three of the games, but a total of 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in the other three.
Feierabend is making his first start for Seattle since July 24. He’s made three relief appearances this month in a trio of Mariners losses, giving up just a run on 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings.
Feierabend is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in six road games (four starts). That includes a 4-1 loss at the Angels in his first-ever big-league start on May 29, when the southpaw gave up all four runs on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings.
The over is on runs of 16-6 for Seattle overall, 10-4 for Seattle on the road, 6-2 for the Angels in divisional games and 9-6 in this season series (4-2 in Anaheim). However, the under is 10-5 in the Angels’ last 15 contests, including 7-2 at home, and 6-2 in Weaver’s last eight starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDER

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Sports Gambling Hotline

With the Cubs winning in the late innings last night, the Brewers need to keep winning to keep the Central title within shouting distance.
We do like Milwaukee to cool off an Atlanta team that has won their last 4, and 6 of their last 8.
Lance Cormier has struggled his last 2 trips to the mound, as he has been reached for 8 runs in just 8 innings of work, while taking a pair of losses. For the season Cormier is a lowly 2-6 with an ERA near 7. That is not the kind of mark Bobby Cox was looking for when he inserted Cormier into the starting rotation, and we don't see those numbers improving tonight.
Jeff Suppan will counter, and while the righty is just 10-11 this year, he has pitched much better of late, as he is 2-0 over his last 3 starts. Milwaukee has won all 3 of those starts, as Suppan has given the Brew Crew just enough to get the job done.
Play on the Brewers.

1♦ MILWAUKEE

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Tony Mathews

Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants

Selection: Cincinnati/San Francisco Over 9 (-110)

Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as the Cincinnati Reds face-off against the San Francisco Giants in Thursday's MLB contest.

The Cincinnati Reds will use starting pitcher Homer Bailey. Homer Bailey has struggled this season (6.99 ERA), as well as continues to get worse (12.19 ERA in his last 3 starts). It's safe to say that Homer Bailey will have another bad start tonight.

As for the San Francisco Giants, they will use starting pitcher Matt Cain. Matt Cain has been up/down this season which is shown by his 3.71 ERA. However, Matt Cain has been having huge pitching problems as of late (5.17 ERA in his last 3 starts). To say the least, the Cincinnati Reds should be able to score many runs tonight.

We should see both teams scoring many runs tonight!

Take the Cincinnati Reds/San Francisco Giants Over 8.5

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Vegas Sports Pics

CFB

Texas A&M Aggies + 3 over (at) Miami Hurricanes

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers (Lowe) +110* over Colorado (Jimenez)
Philadelphia (Lohse) -130** over Washington (Bergmann)

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Vegas Experts

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Thursday, September 20th, 7:35 P.M. EDT

Cormier sports a 7.09 ERA and has been vulnerable to the long ball. The Brewers lead the league in home runs. Suppan has a 5.44 road ERA in 16 starts and faces a Braves offense that is 2nd in the league in runs scored. MILWAUKEE is also 25-16 OVER (+8.2 Units) vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better this season and 28-16 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons while ATLANTA is 65-44 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 12-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits/start this season.

Play on: Over

Digeze · Sep 20, 2007

Larry Ness' 15* 'Under the Radar' Game of the Week

My 15* play is on the StL Cards at 8:10 ET. There's still some value and plenty of good money-making opportunities in games involving "teams going nowhere." That's the case tonight, as the Astros and Cards open a meaningless four-game set in St Louis. The last few years, these two teams have been the "class" of the NL Central but not in '07. The Cards enter at 71-80 and the Astros at 66-86. The Astros are tied with the Pirates, just one game better than the Marlins, who own the NL's worst record. The Astros do however, reside in the basement of the "moneyline " standings (minus-$2,163), as well as owning MLB's worst road record at 26-48 (minus-$1,727). Against this backdrop, the Asstros will send Wandy Rodriguez to the mound. In 15 home starts TY, he's 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA and the Astros have gone 11-4. However, in 14 road starts, he's allowed 92 hits in 72.2 innings, posting a 7.31 ERA. He's 2-10 and Houston is 3-11. What's more, We love msi and, Rodriguez has been terrible in his career against the Cardinals, going 0-4 with an 8.71 ERA in four starts and a relief appearance against them. The left-hander comes in 1-2 with a 7.99 ERA in his last five starts overall, allowing 28 hits and 17 walks in 23.2 innings! The Cards counter with Braden Looper (12-10, 4.55 ERA), who has been outstanding in three starts against Houston this season, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA. His other 30 appearances against the Astros were all in relief, and he is 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA lifetime against them. Looper has given up two ERs or less in six of his last seven starts (2.55 ERA, including 1.38 in the six good starts!) plus is 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 14 starts at home this year (Cards are 10-4). 'Under the Radar' Game of the Week 15* StL Cards.

Good Luck...Larry

kil_l_a · Sep 20, 2007

did the braves change their starting pitcher?

Riskman · Sep 20, 2007

WINNING POINTS
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

7:45 pm
*CLOSE CALL
Texas A&M over Miami-FL* by 2
The key number in this puzzle might be in the play counts
for each offense:

2006
Miami-FL: 61.8
Texas A&M: 67

2007
Miami-FL: 59.7
Texas A&M: 74.0

The Aggies can stay on the field better than Miami-FL can.
They did so a year ago, and they are doing it so far this
season. Miami needs to hit big plays but they don't seem to
have the big-play receivers any more. Defensively, Miami-FL
haslong thrived on the turnover but A&M is not the kind of
team to come in and throw it away. They play power football
with the added difficulty of option and if they don't fumble,
they bull their way to owning the clock, controlling the game,
and wearing down the Miami-FL defense in the second half.

Weather forecast of possible thunderstorms and winds up to
20 mph would probably benefit the ground-oriented visitors
and hamper the big-play seeking home team. TEXAS A&M, 23-21.

$4nothing · Sep 20, 2007

kil_l_a said:
did the braves change their starting pitcher?

J Bennett for ATL -110 ; 10 1/2

Murphy8276 · Sep 20, 2007

CappersAccess

(Thu) TEXAS A&M +3

Kottja · Sep 20, 2007

Thanks for the picks guys - anyone seen Root's play for the college game tonight?

Murphy8276 · Sep 20, 2007

Ebb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These guys are #,s freaks they are all phd's in statistical and computer aspects their plays used to be free but as of yesterday they started charging her are today's

1 unit reg strength
1.5 GOW strength
2 unit GOM strength
3 unit GOY strength (extremely rare)

Texas Rangers (-140) over Baltimore Orioles (1.0 Units) -
Colorado Rockies (-114) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
Houston Astros (117) over St. Louis Cardinals (1.5 Units) -
Washington Nationals (117) over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units) -
Seattle Mariners (174) over Los Angeles Angels (1.0 Units) -

Murphy8276 · Sep 20, 2007

Digeze said:
My 15* play is on the StL Cards at 8:10 ET. There's still some value and plenty of good money-making opportunities in games involving "teams going nowhere." That's the case tonight, as the Astros and Cards open a meaningless four-game set in St Louis. The last few years, these two teams have been the "class" of the NL Central but not in '07. The Cards enter at 71-80 and the Astros at 66-86. The Astros are tied with the Pirates, just one game better than the Marlins, who own the NL's worst record. The Astros do however, reside in the basement of the "moneyline " standings (minus-$2,163), as well as owning MLB's worst road record at 26-48 (minus-$1,727). Against this backdrop, the Asstros will send Wandy Rodriguez to the mound. In 15 home starts TY, he's 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA and the Astros have gone 11-4. However, in 14 road starts, he's allowed 92 hits in 72.2 innings, posting a 7.31 ERA. He's 2-10 and Houston is 3-11. What's more, We love msi and, Rodriguez has been terrible in his career against the Cardinals, going 0-4 with an 8.71 ERA in four starts and a relief appearance against them. The left-hander comes in 1-2 with a 7.99 ERA in his last five starts overall, allowing 28 hits and 17 walks in 23.2 innings! The Cards counter with Braden Looper (12-10, 4.55 ERA), who has been outstanding in three starts against Houston this season, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA. His other 30 appearances against the Astros were all in relief, and he is 6-2 with a 2.07 ERA lifetime against them. Looper has given up two ERs or less in six of his last seven starts (2.55 ERA, including 1.38 in the six good starts!) plus is 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 14 starts at home this year (Cards are 10-4). 'Under the Radar' Game of the Week 15* StL Cards.

Good Luck...Larry

LOL

Murphy8276 · Sep 20, 2007

SEBASTIAN

50* Miami FL -2.5

Service Plays 9/20/07

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