Ben Burns
2007 "SHOCKER" OF THE YEAR *National TV
Last year, Ben Burns released his NFL "Shocker" GOY and Underdog Oakland WON OUTRIGHT by 12. He followed that up by releasing his NCAA "Shocker" GOY and +10 UNLV SHOCKED THE WORLD by WINNING OUTRIGHT vs. Air Force. Last week, Ben cashed his NFL "Shocker" GOY on the Browns who WON OUTRIGHT vs. Cincinnati.
Notre Dame
Ben Burns
BIG-10 GAME OF THE YEAR ***17-4 L21 GOYs***
BIG Game Expert Ben Burns is a PERFECT 3-0 with his college football "Game of the Year" releases and a SIMPLY INCREDIBLE 17-4 his L21 "GOY" picks overall. If you've been enjoying that 81% RUN of BIG GAME DOMINANCE, then you'll simply LOVE Ben's BIG 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR.
Iowa
Ben Burns
#1 NCAA Total of the Week ***5-0 YTD***
Ben Burns is off to a SIZZLING 5-0 START with his college football over/under picks this season. This renowned "Totals Guru" puts that PERFECT RECORD on the line with a single SUPERB "total" BLOWOUT on Saturday. Don't wait for the line to move
Az St/Ore St Under
2007 "SHOCKER" OF THE YEAR *National TV
Last year, Ben Burns released his NFL "Shocker" GOY and Underdog Oakland WON OUTRIGHT by 12. He followed that up by releasing his NCAA "Shocker" GOY and +10 UNLV SHOCKED THE WORLD by WINNING OUTRIGHT vs. Air Force. Last week, Ben cashed his NFL "Shocker" GOY on the Browns who WON OUTRIGHT vs. Cincinnati.
Notre Dame
Ben Burns
BIG-10 GAME OF THE YEAR ***17-4 L21 GOYs***
BIG Game Expert Ben Burns is a PERFECT 3-0 with his college football "Game of the Year" releases and a SIMPLY INCREDIBLE 17-4 his L21 "GOY" picks overall. If you've been enjoying that 81% RUN of BIG GAME DOMINANCE, then you'll simply LOVE Ben's BIG 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR.
Iowa
Ben Burns
#1 NCAA Total of the Week ***5-0 YTD***
Ben Burns is off to a SIZZLING 5-0 START with his college football over/under picks this season. This renowned "Totals Guru" puts that PERFECT RECORD on the line with a single SUPERB "total" BLOWOUT on Saturday. Don't wait for the line to move
Az St/Ore St Under
TOM SCOTT
FIVE STAR PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY 29-0
Kentucky at ARKANSAS - 6:00 PM EST
Play ON: #362 - ARKANSAS minus the points
Everyone who pays attention to college football knows that Houston Nutt's job is on the line this season and he HAS TO WIN this game to keep it. He can. Kentucky has lost 14 straight road games when it has been outrushed, a very distinct possibility here since the net rushing yardage differential between the two is 122 yards in favor of the Hogs. When Arkansas wins, it usually covers. The Pigs are 41-12 ATS in their last 53 SU wins off a loss, including a sterling 31-6 ATS in SEC play and a perfect 13-0 ATS when playing an opponent who is off back-to-back wins. Kentucky has covered just three times in 19 chances on the road off a win when favored or when an underdog of less than 10. One other point - How are the BlueGrass Cats going to get back up after that last second emotional win over their state rival?
PREDICTION: ARKANSAS 38 - Kentucky 23
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FIVE STAR PERFECT SYSTEM PLAY 29-0
Kentucky at ARKANSAS - 6:00 PM EST
Play ON: #362 - ARKANSAS minus the points
Everyone who pays attention to college football knows that Houston Nutt's job is on the line this season and he HAS TO WIN this game to keep it. He can. Kentucky has lost 14 straight road games when it has been outrushed, a very distinct possibility here since the net rushing yardage differential between the two is 122 yards in favor of the Hogs. When Arkansas wins, it usually covers. The Pigs are 41-12 ATS in their last 53 SU wins off a loss, including a sterling 31-6 ATS in SEC play and a perfect 13-0 ATS when playing an opponent who is off back-to-back wins. Kentucky has covered just three times in 19 chances on the road off a win when favored or when an underdog of less than 10. One other point - How are the BlueGrass Cats going to get back up after that last second emotional win over their state rival?
PREDICTION: ARKANSAS 38 - Kentucky 23
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The Gold Sheet
<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
LOUISVILLE 52 - Syracuse 10--Cardinals down in dumps after late loss at rival Kentucky, but not nearly as depressed as staggering Syracuse side that's off to 0-3 start for first time in 21 years. Massive firepower edge to Louisville, as maligned Card defense finally meets an attack it can contain in juiceless Orange offense. Host 16-3 vs. spread last 19 at Papa John's.
(06-Lvl. 28-SYR. 13...L.24-18 L.36/223 S.28/19 S.24/41/1/303 L.18/26/1/203 L.2 S.1)
(06-Louisville -17' 28-13 05-LOUISVILLE -36 41-17...SR: EVEN 3-3)
INDIANA 31 - Illinois 24--Indiana victory over Akron didn't come as easily as 41-24 final would indicate, as Hoosiers scored twice in the final 6:25 to extend margin and get the cover. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis playing well, but so are Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall (6 TDs, 6.4 ypc) and frosh WR Arrelious Benn (13 catches). Hoosier pass rush greatly improved (17 sacks TY) and Illinois is 2-18 SU away since '03.
(06-Ind. 34-ILL. 32...In.21-16 Il.38/209 In.33/149 In.20/41/0/240 Il.11/22/0/217 In.1 Il.1)
(06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13 04-ILL. -2' 26-22...SR: Illinois 41-20-3)
NAVY 30 - Duke 24--As long as Duke not on cloud nine after ending 22-game losing streak last week (we haven't seen a Blue Devil team celebrate that much since Christian Laettner's buzzer beater vs. Kentucky in 1992), no reason Ted Roof's bunch can't hang around. Navy "D" looking to President Bush for reinforcements after alarming attrition, and now Mid option could be minus pilot QB Kaheaku-Enhada--after spraining both ankles vs. Ball State.
(06-Navy 38-DUKE 13...N.25-13 N.70/435 D.33/113 D.15/22/0/181 N.2/5/0/32 N.3 D.1)
(06-Navy -10' 38-13 05-Navy -6 28-21 04-NAVY -7' 27-12...SR: Navy 19-12-5)
Baylor 28 - BUFFALO 26--Baylor QB Syzmanski (11 TDP last two weeks) developing in spread attack. But Buffalo has taken on tougher opposition (Rutgers, Penn State) and has productive triplets (such as they are) in veteran QB Willy, soph RB Starks, and jr. WR Ernest Jackson (7-114 vs. Nittany Lions). Check the Wall Street Journal for box score of this Bears vs. Bulls battle! (FIRST MEETING)
AKRON 22 - Kent State 21--Akron QB situation improved with lefty Carlton Jackson stepping in and throwing for 200 yds. & 2 TDs and running for 71 yds. & another score. Kent State jr. Julian Edelman is obviously dangerous, as her threw for 305 yds. in last year's meeting. However, Akron played Ohio State and Indiana extremely tough (trailed at Columbus 3-2 at half and were behind Indiana 27-24 with less than 7 min. remaining). Zip NTs Pendleton & Wallace (both 315 lb.) clog middle & allow vet LB crew to seek & destroy Edelman & RB Jarvis.
(06-KENT ST. 37-Akron 15...K.22-16 K.55/156 A.23/73 K.17/21/0/305 A.19/38/0/261 K.1 A.2)
(06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3 04-Akron +6' 24-19...SR: Akron 27-20-2)
BOSTON COLLEGE 45 - Army 10--Can classy BC name score vs. outmanned Army? Probably. Will Eagles be compelled to do so after demanding early trio vs. ACC competition? We're not sure. Black Knights flying far the under radar these days and might be minus starting QB Pevoto again. But sources say Stan Brock's "D" not all that bad, and West Point deserved better fate last week at Wake (PR and int. TDs proved costly).
(05-BOSTON COLLEGE -27' 44-7...SR: Boston College 2-0)
COLORADO 31 - Miami-Ohio 15--Not sure young Buffs have the maturity yet to win decisively as substantial favorite. However, Miami being crippled by injuries to star RB Murphy & his backup, as well as on the OL. CU defense not deep, but has quality frontline veterans, and Buffs regained services of RB Charles and frosh WR Josh Smith vs. Fla. State. (FIRST MEETING)
NEBRASKA 40 - Ball State 13--Must look for embarrassed "bully team" Nebraska (4-1 as a double-digit home favorite last 1+Ys) to rebound strongly after being out-rushed in Lincoln 313-31 by No. 1 USC in prime time last week. Respect the QB Nate Davis-RB MiQuale Lewis Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense gave up 521 yds. on the ground in last week's 34-31 OT win at Navy. (FIRST MEETING)
BYU 26 - Air Force 22--Not sure we'll be seeing Mitt Romney making any campaign stops at Provo until BYU eliminates TOs (8 last 2 games) and penalties (25 last 2!) that sidetracked Cougs in losses at UCLA & Tulsa. Meanwhile, AFA sr. QB Carney adjusting seamlessly from option to new-found freedom in 1st-year HC Calhoun's shotgun. Surprising Falcs (wins as dog vs. Utah & TCU) will be in MWC driver's seat with another upset!
(06-Byu 33-A. FORCE 14...B.22-16 A.49/190 B.34/153 B.23/31/0/258 A.4/10/1/39 B.0 A.1)
(06-Byu -9' 33-14 05-BYU -6' 62-41 04-Byu +2 41-24...SR: BYU 21-6)
UCLA 28 - Washington 19--Which one of these humbled Pac-10 entries can bounce off the deck, a la Floyd Patterson? We'll see. Ballyhooed RS frosh QB Locker and U-Dub's new spread option hit speed bump vs. gnarly Ohio State, and after humiliating loss at Utah, Bruins have redemption and revenge motivation working for them.
(06-WASH. 29-Ucla 19...W.14-13 U.34/143 W.27/49 W.18/29/1/200 U.18/31/2/135 W.3 U.0)
(06-WASH. +3 29-19 05-UCLA -21' 21-17 04-Ucla P 37-31...SR: UCLA 35-29-2)
ALABAMA 30 - Georgia 22--Prefer to lay smallish number with Bama squad that displayed great determination and grit in thrlling, last-second 41-38 victory vs. Arkansas. Look for Tide's accurate QB J.P. Wilson to continue to work play-action to stellar WRs Hall (just became Tide's all-time leading pass catcher), K. Brown & late-blooming sr. Caddell (9 catches vs. Hogs) vs. soph-laden UGA 2ndary. With rebuilt OL not fully-synchronized, Dawgs won't run as effectively as Arkansas. And doubt UGA's still-developing QB Stafford makes many big, vertical plays vs. Nick Saban's well-designed 3-deep zone.
(DNP...SR: Alabama 35-24-4)
Florida 41 - MISSISSIPPI 13--Although Florida has dropped 7 straight as road chalk, look for highly-explosive Gators (56 ppg) to break that streak vs. outmanned Ole Miss squad unable to cope with Vandy's mobile QB Nickson (200 YP, 78 YR) in 31-17 loss week ago. UF's scintillating soph QB Tebow (74%, 192 YR so far), who has his own website, is licking his chops. Meanwhile the rapidly-jelling Gator defense (held Tennessee to meager 37 YR; collected 2 ints.) frustrates choppy Rebel attack that owns fewer big-play weapons that Vols. Speed kills. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 11-9-1)
OHIO STATE 42 - Northwestern 13--Not too interested in backing Northwestern crew coming off an embarrassing loss to lowly Duke, expecially if Wildcat ace RB Tyrell Sutton isn't 100% (sat out Saturday with ankle injury). Ohio State took care of business at Washington, as QB Boeckman avoided interceptions, while NU QB C.J. Bacher threw two away against the Blue Devils. Buckeye A-A LB Laurinaitis had two picks at Seattle and is off to a great start. OSU intensity rises for Big Ten opener.
(06-Ohio St. 54-N'WSTRN 10...O.22-17 O.44/231 N.24/68 N.21/36/2/229 O.14/24/1/194 O.1 N.3)
(06-Osu -22' 54-10 05-OSU -19 48-7 04-NWU +11 33-27 (OT)...SR: Ohio State 57-14-1)
Penn State 27 - MICHIGAN 20--Penn State stepping up in class after handling three lighter-weight foes. Michigan reached back for superior effort against Notre Dame, but Penn State QB Morelli and RB Scott will pose much more of a challenge for Michigan defense than did ND true frosh QB Clausen and the non-existent Irish running game.
(06-Mich. 17-PENN ST. 10...M.16-11 M.33/116 P.25/M14 P.17/31/0/200 M.15/30/0/196 M.0 P.1)
(06-Michigan -5 17-10 05-MICHIGAN -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 9-3)
OKLAHOMA STATE 30 - Texas Tech 29--TT finally moving up in class following victories over SMU, UTEP & Rice. And things often don't go so swimmingly for Red Raider offense (QB Harrell 14 TDP, WR Crabtree 38 recs. TY!) on the Big XII road (TT 6-6 SU L3Ys). OSU unlikely to repeat its 5-giveaway gift in last week's uninspired 41-23 loss at Troy. Cowboys also own fine offensive talent.
(06-TEX. TECH 30-Ok. St. 24...O.24-19 O.50/221 T.17/81 T.28/44/0/353 O.13/34/1/164 T.1 O.0)
(06-TECH -6 30-24 05-OSU +23 24-17 04-TECH -4' 31-15...SR: Texas Tech 20-11-3)
Michigan State 27 - NOTRE DAME 19--Notre Dame appears to have sunk to depths not reached since the days of Gerry Faust. Irish haven't scored an offensive touchdown and have allowed 23 sacks, contributing to the team's 119th-ranked rushing game. Tough-talking Charlie Weis' "back to training camp" speech and Sunday practice will grab his players' attention, and oddsmakers may have overadjusted ratings of both of these teams. TV--NBC
(06-N. Dame 40-MICH. ST. 37...M.18-13 M.43/248 N.17/47 N.20/36/1/319 M.11/23/2/140 N.1 M.1)
(06-Und -3 40-37 05-Msu +5' 44-41 (OT) 04-Und -3 31-24...SR: Notre Dame 44-25-1)
UCF 35 - Memphis 23--Spread rising after UCF gave national power Texas all it could handle in Knights' first game at their brand-new on-campus stadium. Memphis QB Hankins (5 ints. first 2 games) is dangerous, but frequently tries to force ball into tight coverage. Star jr. RB Kevin Smith (366 YR & 4 TDs first 2 games) & improving UCF defense enough to get host its first win at spiffy new Bright House digs.
(06-Ucf 26-MEMPHIS 24...U.23-18 U.44/148 M.19/78 U.19/28/0/319 M.28/43/0/287 U.0 M.0)
(06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 2-1)
Georgia Tech 21 - VIRGINIA 20--Cavaliers' QB rotation of scrambling soph Sewell & touted true frosh pocket passer Lalich (combined for just 447 YP in first 3 games) not very dynamic, but not making major mistakes (0 ints. last 2) either. If that duo doesn't get rattled by Tech blitzes, emerging jr. RB Peerman (323 YR last 2 games) & solid stop unit keep UVa in hunt whole way.
(06-GA. TECH 24-Va. 7...G.14-9 G.38/105 V.23/51 G.12/21/0/230 V.15/31/2/115 G.1 V.1)
(06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17 04-Va. -5' 30-10...SR: EVEN 14-14-1)
Colorado State 31 - HOUSTON 30--Host Cougars own most dangerous weapon on field in quick-striking sr. RB Alridge (429 total yards & 4 TDs in first 2 games). Still, QB experience edge belongs to rested Rams (extra week of prep) & savvy sr. Hanie (530 YP & 4 TDP on 71% first 2 games), who now has strong ground support with return of thumping all-conf. RB Bell (missed LY with knee injury). (DNP...SR: Houston 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 34 - Arizona 23--Cal's chilling, Mike Tyson-in-his-prime-like KO power understandably causes pause in recommending against Jeff Tedford's bunch, even at hefty prices. And Bears in revenge mode after galling loss at Tucson last November. But fact is that Cal about as reliable lately as a late-career Tyson when laying double digits (1-11-1 last 13 in role!). UA erratic, but QB Tuitama (8 TDP last 2) getting a feel for new Cat spread.
(06-ARIZ. 24-Cal. 20...C.14-13 C.23/106 A.33/60 C.17/36/3/250 A.17/34/0/202 A.0 C.0)
(06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0 04-Cal. -22' 38-0...SR: EVEN 12-12-2)
IDAHO 24 - Northern Illinois 21--How many travel agents have had to book a DeKalb-Moscow round trip? Winless NIU having enough problems without odd Kibbie Dome surroundings, as "O" minus catalyst RB Clanton (caddy J. Anderson 168 YR vs. EMU, but lacks Clanton's pop), and QB Nicholson throwing too many picks (7). Meanwhile, new Idaho RS frosh weapons QB Enderle & RB D. Jackson providing vital spark to Vandal "O."
(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)
*BOWLING GREEN 45 - Temple 17--Temple managed a cover vs. a disinterested UConn team last week, but it will take more than one or two big plays to get close to revenge-minded Bowling Green. Falcon QB Tyler Sheehan is 11th in the nation in total offense, and he'll remember igniting Temple's only SU win in last 27 games with his 2 ints. in last season's match against the Owls.
(06-TEMPLE 28-B. Green 14...B.27-12 B.46/249 T.28/94 T.10/13/2/162 B.19/36/2/158 T.0 B.1)
(06-TEMPLE +17 28-14 05-BGU -29 70-7 04-Bgu -7 70-16...SR: Bowling Green 6-3)
*WEST VIRGINIA 37 - East Carolina 17--Marauding Mountaineers strike in frightening flurries, especially now that electric true frosh RB Devine (212 YR on 21 ypc last 2 games!) has joined star duo of QB White & RB Slaton. Can ECU's veteran front 7 (allowed only 153 YR in LY's meeting) hold its own against WV again? Pesky Pirates have covered 11 of last 13 as road dog.
(06-W. Va. 27-E. CAR. 10...W.22-20 W.42/153 E.24/41 E.22/47/2/276 W.17/24/3/216 W.0 E.1)
(06-Wvu -21 27-10 05-WVU -22 20-15 04-WVU -28' 56-23...SR: West Virginia 16-2)
*TOLEDO 31 - Iowa State 30--With these squads off such disparate performances, inclined to take extra points with Toledo squad that's 6-1 as a home dog in Glass Bowl since 2002. Iowa State offense not exactly en fuego (13 ppg; settled for 5 FGs vs. Iowa), and transitioning Cylcones (under rookie HC Chizik) haven't covered as road chalk since 2001! Rocket offense goes in with confidence after generating season-high 43 in OT loss at Ames LY.
(06-IOWA ST. 45-Tol. 43 (OT)...I.24-23 I.41/159 T.27/45 T.39/49/1/367 I.17/26/0/234 I.1 T.1)
(06-IOWA STATE -9 45-43 (OT)...SR: Iowa State 1-0)
*SOUTH FLORIDA 29 - North Carolina 21--Up-and-coming USF had week off to bask in the glow of its victory at Auburn and hosts Big East rival West Va. next week. Matchup of tough-minded Bull QB Grothe vs. very young UNC defense makes upset unlikely, but Butch Davis' baby Heels will go down firing behind cocksure RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 3 TDP in each of first 3 games).
(06-S. Fla. 37-N. CAR. 20...S.23-18 S.47/234 N.39/168 S.15/22/0/183 N.9/26/2/117 S.2 N.0)
(06-South Florida -3 37-20...SR: South Florida 1-0)
*Maryland 23 - WAKE FOREST 21--Defending ACC champ Wake got off the schneid with ho-hum home win over Army last week. And WF starting QB Skinner (missed last 2 games) might be back. Still, Deacons (covered just 4 of last 25 as favorite!) have been MAJOR money-burner as chalk. New Maryland QB Steffy's versatility helping tepid Terrapin attack generate a little more heat.
(06-W. For. 38-MARY. 24...W.22-19 W.57/296 M.33/194 M.14/26/3/182 W.10/13/1/125 W.0 M.0)
(06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12 04-MARY. -5' 13-7...SR: Maryland 40-14-1)
*Clemson 35 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16--Key early injuries undermining new Wolfpack HC Tom O'Brien's hopes for quick turnaround at Raleigh. Meanwhile, Clemson's new jr. QB Cullen Harper (80% & 8 TDP last 2 games!) making teams pay dearly for crowding line of scrimmage against dangerous RBs J. Davis & Spiller--something LY's Tiger triggerman Proctor couldn't do. Clemson has covered 3 straight at State, while Wolfpack now 1-8 vs. spread last 9.
(06-CLEM. 20-N. Car. St. 14...C.18-16 C.39/223 N.45/178 C.15/24/2/146 N.10/25/2/95 C.1 N.0)
(06-CLEM. -17' 20-14 05-Clem. +4' 31-10 04-CLEM. +1 26-20...SR: Clemson 48-26-1)
*CINCINNATI 38 - Marshall 13--Enthusiastic new Cincy HC Kelly has quickly re-energized Bearcats, who've mauled their first 3 foes TY by a combined 140-16! Poor-traveling Marshall (just 2-15 vs. spread last 17 away from home) next in line for a beating. Speedy Cincy defense already has 17 takeaways!
(04-Cincinnati -1' 32-14 (Fort Worth Bowl)...SR: Cincinnati 6-3-1)
*ARKANSAS 37 - Kentucky 34--In an SEC clash featuring offensive fireworks deluxe, willing to "take" with surging Kentucky (won 8 of last 9; only loss by 5 at Tennessee), brimming with confidence following 40-34 upset vs. heated rival L'Ville. Sure, Arkansas' Heisman candidate RB McFadden & his sidekick F. Jones will run for a ton, but Wildcats deadeye 6-5 sr. QB Woodson (68%, 257 passes without an int., 14 shy of Bowl Subdivision record) and his fastbreaking, balanced, high-octane attack (RB Little has 388 YR, 7.5 ypc) able to trade blows all the way. (DNP...SR: Kentucky 3-2)
*AUBURN 37 - New Mexico State 13--After facing 3 quality defenses, believe Tigers "smashmouth" tactics will eventually wear down a soft NMS defensive unit that gave up 44 (at New Mexico) in only road game to date. Auburn's fast, dual threat 6-2 frosh QB Burns (87 YR vs. Miss. State), who replaced struggling vet Cox week ago, uncorks attack running the option. And Aggies productive QB Hollbrook, who has lit up the offensive-minded WAC, finds no groove vs. swarming, angry SEC defense loaded with more playmakers than he's seen so far. (DNP...SR: Auburn 1-0)
*Connecticut 21 - PITTSBURGH 19--True, Huskies labored in last week's home win over lowly Temple. But insiders say that unimpressive performance due mostly to UConn peeking ahead to its Big East lidlifter. Touted Pitt true frosh RB McCoy (279 YR & 4 TDs on 6.3 ypc last 2 games) is the real McCoy. Prefer Huskies' poised juco QB Lorenzen over shaky Panther RS frosh K. Smith (2 ints., only 85 YP at Mich. State), however.
(06-CONN. 46-Pitt 45 (OT)...C.30-22 C.62/317 P.41/180 P.20/25/0/234 C.20/29/0/164 C.1 P.0)
(06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0 04-CONN. -6' 29-17...SR: Connecticut 2-1)
*OHIO 23 - Wyoming 21--After Ohio ran into a buzz saw in Blacksburg, will take any available points with competent Bobcat squad that owns a more diversified offense TY thanks to QB Bower (Illinois transfer). Wyo off emotionally draining effort on Boise State's "blue carpet" (Cowboys trailed 21-0 in 4th), so look for Ohio's star RB McCrae to "get off" after limited to an uncharacteristic 55 yds. in 22 carries at Virginia Tech (Ohio 8-0 when he rushes for 100+ yds.; 0-5 when he doesn't). (FIRST MEETING)
*TEXAS 54 - Rice 10--Texas is not 100% healthy and is blending in several new starters; not on par yet with 2005, 2006 teams. But maybe Longhorns don't have to be after leading Rice 35-0 at the H LY. Owls have declined in first year under new HC Bailiff, losing to Nicholls State, by 25 at Baylor, and 35 vs. Texas Tech. New OL group jelling rapidly for UT.
(06-Texas 52-RICE 7...T.22-11 T.43/330 R.20/M12 R.18/29/0/180 T.10/11/0/163 T.2 R.1)
(06-Texas -32 52-7 05-TEXAS -40' 51-10 04-TEXAS -32 35-13...SR: Texas 67-21-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 44 - Washington State 23--Sure, Wazzu's upset chances about as likely as Ron Paul getting 2008 GOP nomination. And now that Pete Carroll apparently has his pick of blue-chip RBs to balance SC attack, Trojans look more potent than year ago. But "public team" SC has nonetheless been vulnerable to price inflation since the last days of the Leinart/Bush era. And remember that capable Coug QB Brink (10 TDP already) was throwing in end zone for win at end of game vs. Troy LY. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-S. Cal 28-WASH. ST. 22...W.26-20 S.32/135 W.28/131 W.26/47/1/287 S.23/32/1/269 S.1 W.0)
(06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13 04-Usc -24' 42-12...SR: Southern Cal 54-8-4)
*South Carolina 16 - LSU 23--Loaded & deep LSU admittedly looks as strong as any team in America. But will still back athletic, self-assured USC squad that's covered 7 straight away from Columbia--including upset wins at Tenn., Arkansas, Clemson & near-miss at Florida. 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell now fully operating well-designed "fun and gun" for clever mentor Spurrier, who has saved a few gadget plays for this SEC battle. Whether it's Flynn or Perrilloux in control, Tiger attack showing no drop-off in '07. But more physical, sure-tackling Carolina stop unit has allowed more than 28 just once in last 21 reg.-season games (held Georgia sans a TD for 1st time in 6 yrs.!). Take it, pal.
(DNP...SR: LSU 14-2-1)
*WISCONSIN 24 - Iowa 21--Wisconsin has been less than impressive last two games, as UNLV had the lead with less than 3 mins. remaining and The Citadel threw 4 TD passes. Badger star RB P.J. Hill will find going a bit tougher this week against an aroused Iowa defense allowing just 2.0 ypc. Wisconsin hasn't beaten Iowa by more than 6 points in last 7 meetings, and Hawkeye RBs Young & Sims combining for 149 ypg rushing. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Wis. 24-IOWA 21...W.16-12 W.44/143 I.19/134 W.17/24/0/228 I.10/31/1/170 W.2 I.0)
(06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10 04-IOWA -3 30-7...SR: EVEN 40-40-2)
*San Jose State 24 - UTAH STATE 20--Difficult to make a case for either of these WAC stragglers. So, which go-against argument is more persuasive? A measured vote for anti-USU angle, as Utags (1-13 last 14) unaccustomed to any success, and QB L. Jackson's confidence lagging after Oklahoma debacle. At least bowl-winning QB Tafralis still on hand for SJSU, which finally won't be outmanned after being outclassed first 3.
(06-Sjs 21-UTAH ST. 14...S.19-16 U.44/156 S.30/123 S.15/28/2/252 U.21/24/0/145 S.2 U.1)
(06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 18-10-1)
*TCU 45 - Smu 16--TCU suddenly adjusting its objectives more than the White House is with its Middle East policy (Frogs just went from BCS-hopeful to Las Vegas Bowl-wannabe). But SMU's problems appear far deeper, as disappointing Mustang "D" hasn't even been able to slow modest Sun Belt attacks last two weeks. And TCU has been itching for 2 years to get payback vs. Metroplex rival since SMU dealt Frogs their only loss of '05. Frogs poised RS frosh QB Dalton should destroy Mustang 2ndary that's allowed 1340 YP so far.
(05-SMU +14' 21-10 04-TCU -23 44-0...SR: TCU 40-38-7)
*Purdue 45 - MINNESOTA 38--Realize there's a potentially combustible combination present with Minnesota's pass defense (yielding 431 ypg) and Purdue QB Painter (313 ypg; 13 TD passes). However, feel Gophers capable of trading scores with Boilermakers behind RB Amir Pinnix (5.4 ypc; 4 TDs), soph playmaking WR Decker (19 recs., 3 TDs last 2 games) and maturing RS frosh QB Weber (606 YP, 8 TD passes last 2). CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-PUR. 27-Minn. 21...M.23-21 M.45/194 P.32/178 P.18/27/0/243 M.21/35/1/227 P.0 M.1)
(06-PURDUE +2' 27-21 05-MINNESOTA -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-29-3)
*Utah 19 - UNLV 18--Perhaps both of these MWC entries have rung false alarms in early action (Utah's romp past UCLA; UNLV's close call vs. Wisconsin). But scouts suggest upgrades along Rebel stop unit are real (LB Bell getting attention from pro scouts). And despite uprising vs. Bruins, Utes not likely to stretch UNLV's "D" as did Colt Brennan did last week if backup QB Grady still at controls (starter B. Johnson has a chance to return).
(06-UTA 45-Unlv 23...Ut.19-17 Ut.34/110 Lv.29/65 Ut.20/24/0/290 Lv.25/35/2/232 Ut.2 Lv.1)
(06-UTAH -21' 45-23 05-Utah -12 42-32 04-UNLV -24 63-28...SR: Utah 11-1)
*Oregon 45 - STANFORD 20--Credit Jim Harbaugh for rediscovering pulse on Farm, but Stanford's version of the West Coast has about as much in common with Oregon's dynamic spread as Elisabeth Hasselbeck has with Rosie O'Donnell. Ducks (47 ppg) at full throttle on attack under creative new o.c. Kelly, who has QB Dixon doing a pretty good Vince Young impression in early going. Note Mike Bellotti has won and covered last 5 in series.
(06-ORE. 48-Stan. 10...O.28-20 O.41/298 S.35/100 O.21/30/0/236 S.20/34/0/224 O.1 S.1)
(06-ORE. -12 48-10 05-Ore. -6' 44-20 04-Ore. +3' 16-13...SR: Stanford 44-25-1)
*ARIZONA STATE 31 - Oregon State 13--Although OSU WR Stroughter (9 catches last week) has returned to active duty, we need more evidence than torch job vs. low-echelon Idaho State to have confidence in Mike Riley's rotating QBs (who tossed 6 picks in previous loss at Cincy). Especially at hostile Tempe, where rejuvenated ASU won first 3 by 27 ppg and should have services of key RB Torain & TE Miller after resting both vs. SDSU. Dennis Erickson not likely to ease up vs. former employer, either.
(06-ORE. ST. 44-Asu 10...O.18-14 O.36/121 A.34/99 O.17/36/0/282 A.9/29/2/124 O.0 A.0)
(06-OSU -2 44-10 05-Asu -6' 42-24 04-ASU -7' 27-14...SR: Arizona State 22-9-1)
ADDED GAMES
KANSAS 44 - Florida International 6--FIU (Bowl Subdivision-leading 15 straight losses) is the last of KU's four, visiting, completely-beatable, non-Big XII foes. Hot Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing now has 10 TDP, while speedy all-league CB Aqib Talib has a TDC as WR in each of the first three games. Panthers producing 6.3 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
*Troy 40 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 26--After posting 33 ppg vs. heavyweight opposition (Arkansas, Florida, and Ok. State), QB Haugabook and Troy's potent spread could do even more damage in Sun Belt. Meanwhile, erratic ULL QB Desormeaux performed like one of Notre Dame's QBs with 4 picks in Cajuns' 38-17 humiliation vs. McNeese State last week.
(06-TROY 42-La.-Laf. 28...T.19-18 T.39/208 L.38/170 L.16/30/1/230 T.12/19/1/153 T.1 L.0)
(06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28 04-Troy -13' 13-10...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-2)
*Florida Atlantic 45 - NORTH TEXAS 35--Possibility of "hangover" a concern for FAU squad celebrating last week's home win over Big Ten rep Minnesota. Still, can't ignore HUGE experience edge venerable Owl HC Schnellenberger enjoys over creative new UNT mentor Dodge, who was on sidelines in high school LY.
(06-Fla. Atl. 17-N. TEX. 16...17-17 N.40/254 F.38/132 F.12/25/0/107 N.11/18/3/84 F.0 N.1)
(06-Fau +5 17-16 05-FAU -3' 26-23 04-Fau +7' 20-13...SR: Florida Atlantic 3-0)
*TENNESSEE 34 - Arkansas State 20--Sure, UT in testy mood following embarrassing 59-20 smashing in "The Swamp." But troubled Vols might still be unable to shake a veteran, well-balanced Arkansas State squad (250 YR, 266 YP vs. SMU), ably led by fiery, mobile, undervalued 6-1 soph QB Leonard (65%), who does business vs. young, injured UT 2ndary ill-supported by a weak pass rush (only 3 sacks so far). Embroiled HC Fulmer just 8-22 as home chalk since '02, while fearless Indians 8-3 as DD dog since '04. (FIRST MEETING)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
INDIANA by 7 over Illinois
CLEMSON by 19 over N. Carolina State
SOUTH CAROLINA Plus over Lsu
TCU by 29 over Smu
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
LOUISVILLE 52 - Syracuse 10--Cardinals down in dumps after late loss at rival Kentucky, but not nearly as depressed as staggering Syracuse side that's off to 0-3 start for first time in 21 years. Massive firepower edge to Louisville, as maligned Card defense finally meets an attack it can contain in juiceless Orange offense. Host 16-3 vs. spread last 19 at Papa John's.
(06-Lvl. 28-SYR. 13...L.24-18 L.36/223 S.28/19 S.24/41/1/303 L.18/26/1/203 L.2 S.1)
(06-Louisville -17' 28-13 05-LOUISVILLE -36 41-17...SR: EVEN 3-3)
INDIANA 31 - Illinois 24--Indiana victory over Akron didn't come as easily as 41-24 final would indicate, as Hoosiers scored twice in the final 6:25 to extend margin and get the cover. Indiana QB Kellen Lewis playing well, but so are Illini RB Rashard Mendenhall (6 TDs, 6.4 ypc) and frosh WR Arrelious Benn (13 catches). Hoosier pass rush greatly improved (17 sacks TY) and Illinois is 2-18 SU away since '03.
(06-Ind. 34-ILL. 32...In.21-16 Il.38/209 In.33/149 In.20/41/0/240 Il.11/22/0/217 In.1 Il.1)
(06-Ind. +8 34-32 05-IND. -6' 36-13 04-ILL. -2' 26-22...SR: Illinois 41-20-3)
NAVY 30 - Duke 24--As long as Duke not on cloud nine after ending 22-game losing streak last week (we haven't seen a Blue Devil team celebrate that much since Christian Laettner's buzzer beater vs. Kentucky in 1992), no reason Ted Roof's bunch can't hang around. Navy "D" looking to President Bush for reinforcements after alarming attrition, and now Mid option could be minus pilot QB Kaheaku-Enhada--after spraining both ankles vs. Ball State.
(06-Navy 38-DUKE 13...N.25-13 N.70/435 D.33/113 D.15/22/0/181 N.2/5/0/32 N.3 D.1)
(06-Navy -10' 38-13 05-Navy -6 28-21 04-NAVY -7' 27-12...SR: Navy 19-12-5)
Baylor 28 - BUFFALO 26--Baylor QB Syzmanski (11 TDP last two weeks) developing in spread attack. But Buffalo has taken on tougher opposition (Rutgers, Penn State) and has productive triplets (such as they are) in veteran QB Willy, soph RB Starks, and jr. WR Ernest Jackson (7-114 vs. Nittany Lions). Check the Wall Street Journal for box score of this Bears vs. Bulls battle! (FIRST MEETING)
AKRON 22 - Kent State 21--Akron QB situation improved with lefty Carlton Jackson stepping in and throwing for 200 yds. & 2 TDs and running for 71 yds. & another score. Kent State jr. Julian Edelman is obviously dangerous, as her threw for 305 yds. in last year's meeting. However, Akron played Ohio State and Indiana extremely tough (trailed at Columbus 3-2 at half and were behind Indiana 27-24 with less than 7 min. remaining). Zip NTs Pendleton & Wallace (both 315 lb.) clog middle & allow vet LB crew to seek & destroy Edelman & RB Jarvis.
(06-KENT ST. 37-Akron 15...K.22-16 K.55/156 A.23/73 K.17/21/0/305 A.19/38/0/261 K.1 A.2)
(06-KSU +2' 37-15 05-AKRON -13' 35-3 04-Akron +6' 24-19...SR: Akron 27-20-2)
BOSTON COLLEGE 45 - Army 10--Can classy BC name score vs. outmanned Army? Probably. Will Eagles be compelled to do so after demanding early trio vs. ACC competition? We're not sure. Black Knights flying far the under radar these days and might be minus starting QB Pevoto again. But sources say Stan Brock's "D" not all that bad, and West Point deserved better fate last week at Wake (PR and int. TDs proved costly).
(05-BOSTON COLLEGE -27' 44-7...SR: Boston College 2-0)
COLORADO 31 - Miami-Ohio 15--Not sure young Buffs have the maturity yet to win decisively as substantial favorite. However, Miami being crippled by injuries to star RB Murphy & his backup, as well as on the OL. CU defense not deep, but has quality frontline veterans, and Buffs regained services of RB Charles and frosh WR Josh Smith vs. Fla. State. (FIRST MEETING)
NEBRASKA 40 - Ball State 13--Must look for embarrassed "bully team" Nebraska (4-1 as a double-digit home favorite last 1+Ys) to rebound strongly after being out-rushed in Lincoln 313-31 by No. 1 USC in prime time last week. Respect the QB Nate Davis-RB MiQuale Lewis Ball State offense. But Cardinal defense gave up 521 yds. on the ground in last week's 34-31 OT win at Navy. (FIRST MEETING)
BYU 26 - Air Force 22--Not sure we'll be seeing Mitt Romney making any campaign stops at Provo until BYU eliminates TOs (8 last 2 games) and penalties (25 last 2!) that sidetracked Cougs in losses at UCLA & Tulsa. Meanwhile, AFA sr. QB Carney adjusting seamlessly from option to new-found freedom in 1st-year HC Calhoun's shotgun. Surprising Falcs (wins as dog vs. Utah & TCU) will be in MWC driver's seat with another upset!
(06-Byu 33-A. FORCE 14...B.22-16 A.49/190 B.34/153 B.23/31/0/258 A.4/10/1/39 B.0 A.1)
(06-Byu -9' 33-14 05-BYU -6' 62-41 04-Byu +2 41-24...SR: BYU 21-6)
UCLA 28 - Washington 19--Which one of these humbled Pac-10 entries can bounce off the deck, a la Floyd Patterson? We'll see. Ballyhooed RS frosh QB Locker and U-Dub's new spread option hit speed bump vs. gnarly Ohio State, and after humiliating loss at Utah, Bruins have redemption and revenge motivation working for them.
(06-WASH. 29-Ucla 19...W.14-13 U.34/143 W.27/49 W.18/29/1/200 U.18/31/2/135 W.3 U.0)
(06-WASH. +3 29-19 05-UCLA -21' 21-17 04-Ucla P 37-31...SR: UCLA 35-29-2)
ALABAMA 30 - Georgia 22--Prefer to lay smallish number with Bama squad that displayed great determination and grit in thrlling, last-second 41-38 victory vs. Arkansas. Look for Tide's accurate QB J.P. Wilson to continue to work play-action to stellar WRs Hall (just became Tide's all-time leading pass catcher), K. Brown & late-blooming sr. Caddell (9 catches vs. Hogs) vs. soph-laden UGA 2ndary. With rebuilt OL not fully-synchronized, Dawgs won't run as effectively as Arkansas. And doubt UGA's still-developing QB Stafford makes many big, vertical plays vs. Nick Saban's well-designed 3-deep zone.
(DNP...SR: Alabama 35-24-4)
Florida 41 - MISSISSIPPI 13--Although Florida has dropped 7 straight as road chalk, look for highly-explosive Gators (56 ppg) to break that streak vs. outmanned Ole Miss squad unable to cope with Vandy's mobile QB Nickson (200 YP, 78 YR) in 31-17 loss week ago. UF's scintillating soph QB Tebow (74%, 192 YR so far), who has his own website, is licking his chops. Meanwhile the rapidly-jelling Gator defense (held Tennessee to meager 37 YR; collected 2 ints.) frustrates choppy Rebel attack that owns fewer big-play weapons that Vols. Speed kills. (DNP...SR: Mississippi 11-9-1)
OHIO STATE 42 - Northwestern 13--Not too interested in backing Northwestern crew coming off an embarrassing loss to lowly Duke, expecially if Wildcat ace RB Tyrell Sutton isn't 100% (sat out Saturday with ankle injury). Ohio State took care of business at Washington, as QB Boeckman avoided interceptions, while NU QB C.J. Bacher threw two away against the Blue Devils. Buckeye A-A LB Laurinaitis had two picks at Seattle and is off to a great start. OSU intensity rises for Big Ten opener.
(06-Ohio St. 54-N'WSTRN 10...O.22-17 O.44/231 N.24/68 N.21/36/2/229 O.14/24/1/194 O.1 N.3)
(06-Osu -22' 54-10 05-OSU -19 48-7 04-NWU +11 33-27 (OT)...SR: Ohio State 57-14-1)
Penn State 27 - MICHIGAN 20--Penn State stepping up in class after handling three lighter-weight foes. Michigan reached back for superior effort against Notre Dame, but Penn State QB Morelli and RB Scott will pose much more of a challenge for Michigan defense than did ND true frosh QB Clausen and the non-existent Irish running game.
(06-Mich. 17-PENN ST. 10...M.16-11 M.33/116 P.25/M14 P.17/31/0/200 M.15/30/0/196 M.0 P.1)
(06-Michigan -5 17-10 05-MICHIGAN -3' 27-25...SR: Michigan 9-3)
OKLAHOMA STATE 30 - Texas Tech 29--TT finally moving up in class following victories over SMU, UTEP & Rice. And things often don't go so swimmingly for Red Raider offense (QB Harrell 14 TDP, WR Crabtree 38 recs. TY!) on the Big XII road (TT 6-6 SU L3Ys). OSU unlikely to repeat its 5-giveaway gift in last week's uninspired 41-23 loss at Troy. Cowboys also own fine offensive talent.
(06-TEX. TECH 30-Ok. St. 24...O.24-19 O.50/221 T.17/81 T.28/44/0/353 O.13/34/1/164 T.1 O.0)
(06-TECH -6 30-24 05-OSU +23 24-17 04-TECH -4' 31-15...SR: Texas Tech 20-11-3)
Michigan State 27 - NOTRE DAME 19--Notre Dame appears to have sunk to depths not reached since the days of Gerry Faust. Irish haven't scored an offensive touchdown and have allowed 23 sacks, contributing to the team's 119th-ranked rushing game. Tough-talking Charlie Weis' "back to training camp" speech and Sunday practice will grab his players' attention, and oddsmakers may have overadjusted ratings of both of these teams. TV--NBC
(06-N. Dame 40-MICH. ST. 37...M.18-13 M.43/248 N.17/47 N.20/36/1/319 M.11/23/2/140 N.1 M.1)
(06-Und -3 40-37 05-Msu +5' 44-41 (OT) 04-Und -3 31-24...SR: Notre Dame 44-25-1)
UCF 35 - Memphis 23--Spread rising after UCF gave national power Texas all it could handle in Knights' first game at their brand-new on-campus stadium. Memphis QB Hankins (5 ints. first 2 games) is dangerous, but frequently tries to force ball into tight coverage. Star jr. RB Kevin Smith (366 YR & 4 TDs first 2 games) & improving UCF defense enough to get host its first win at spiffy new Bright House digs.
(06-Ucf 26-MEMPHIS 24...U.23-18 U.44/148 M.19/78 U.19/28/0/319 M.28/43/0/287 U.0 M.0)
(06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 2-1)
Georgia Tech 21 - VIRGINIA 20--Cavaliers' QB rotation of scrambling soph Sewell & touted true frosh pocket passer Lalich (combined for just 447 YP in first 3 games) not very dynamic, but not making major mistakes (0 ints. last 2) either. If that duo doesn't get rattled by Tech blitzes, emerging jr. RB Peerman (323 YR last 2 games) & solid stop unit keep UVa in hunt whole way.
(06-GA. TECH 24-Va. 7...G.14-9 G.38/105 V.23/51 G.12/21/0/230 V.15/31/2/115 G.1 V.1)
(06-TECH -17 24-7 05-VA. -3' 27-17 04-Va. -5' 30-10...SR: EVEN 14-14-1)
Colorado State 31 - HOUSTON 30--Host Cougars own most dangerous weapon on field in quick-striking sr. RB Alridge (429 total yards & 4 TDs in first 2 games). Still, QB experience edge belongs to rested Rams (extra week of prep) & savvy sr. Hanie (530 YP & 4 TDP on 71% first 2 games), who now has strong ground support with return of thumping all-conf. RB Bell (missed LY with knee injury). (DNP...SR: Houston 1-0)
CALIFORNIA 34 - Arizona 23--Cal's chilling, Mike Tyson-in-his-prime-like KO power understandably causes pause in recommending against Jeff Tedford's bunch, even at hefty prices. And Bears in revenge mode after galling loss at Tucson last November. But fact is that Cal about as reliable lately as a late-career Tyson when laying double digits (1-11-1 last 13 in role!). UA erratic, but QB Tuitama (8 TDP last 2) getting a feel for new Cat spread.
(06-ARIZ. 24-Cal. 20...C.14-13 C.23/106 A.33/60 C.17/36/3/250 A.17/34/0/202 A.0 C.0)
(06-ARIZ. +13' 24-20 05-CAL. -16 28-0 04-Cal. -22' 38-0...SR: EVEN 12-12-2)
IDAHO 24 - Northern Illinois 21--How many travel agents have had to book a DeKalb-Moscow round trip? Winless NIU having enough problems without odd Kibbie Dome surroundings, as "O" minus catalyst RB Clanton (caddy J. Anderson 168 YR vs. EMU, but lacks Clanton's pop), and QB Nicholson throwing too many picks (7). Meanwhile, new Idaho RS frosh weapons QB Enderle & RB D. Jackson providing vital spark to Vandal "O."
(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)
*BOWLING GREEN 45 - Temple 17--Temple managed a cover vs. a disinterested UConn team last week, but it will take more than one or two big plays to get close to revenge-minded Bowling Green. Falcon QB Tyler Sheehan is 11th in the nation in total offense, and he'll remember igniting Temple's only SU win in last 27 games with his 2 ints. in last season's match against the Owls.
(06-TEMPLE 28-B. Green 14...B.27-12 B.46/249 T.28/94 T.10/13/2/162 B.19/36/2/158 T.0 B.1)
(06-TEMPLE +17 28-14 05-BGU -29 70-7 04-Bgu -7 70-16...SR: Bowling Green 6-3)
*WEST VIRGINIA 37 - East Carolina 17--Marauding Mountaineers strike in frightening flurries, especially now that electric true frosh RB Devine (212 YR on 21 ypc last 2 games!) has joined star duo of QB White & RB Slaton. Can ECU's veteran front 7 (allowed only 153 YR in LY's meeting) hold its own against WV again? Pesky Pirates have covered 11 of last 13 as road dog.
(06-W. Va. 27-E. CAR. 10...W.22-20 W.42/153 E.24/41 E.22/47/2/276 W.17/24/3/216 W.0 E.1)
(06-Wvu -21 27-10 05-WVU -22 20-15 04-WVU -28' 56-23...SR: West Virginia 16-2)
*TOLEDO 31 - Iowa State 30--With these squads off such disparate performances, inclined to take extra points with Toledo squad that's 6-1 as a home dog in Glass Bowl since 2002. Iowa State offense not exactly en fuego (13 ppg; settled for 5 FGs vs. Iowa), and transitioning Cylcones (under rookie HC Chizik) haven't covered as road chalk since 2001! Rocket offense goes in with confidence after generating season-high 43 in OT loss at Ames LY.
(06-IOWA ST. 45-Tol. 43 (OT)...I.24-23 I.41/159 T.27/45 T.39/49/1/367 I.17/26/0/234 I.1 T.1)
(06-IOWA STATE -9 45-43 (OT)...SR: Iowa State 1-0)
*SOUTH FLORIDA 29 - North Carolina 21--Up-and-coming USF had week off to bask in the glow of its victory at Auburn and hosts Big East rival West Va. next week. Matchup of tough-minded Bull QB Grothe vs. very young UNC defense makes upset unlikely, but Butch Davis' baby Heels will go down firing behind cocksure RS frosh QB Yates (66%; 3 TDP in each of first 3 games).
(06-S. Fla. 37-N. CAR. 20...S.23-18 S.47/234 N.39/168 S.15/22/0/183 N.9/26/2/117 S.2 N.0)
(06-South Florida -3 37-20...SR: South Florida 1-0)
*Maryland 23 - WAKE FOREST 21--Defending ACC champ Wake got off the schneid with ho-hum home win over Army last week. And WF starting QB Skinner (missed last 2 games) might be back. Still, Deacons (covered just 4 of last 25 as favorite!) have been MAJOR money-burner as chalk. New Maryland QB Steffy's versatility helping tepid Terrapin attack generate a little more heat.
(06-W. For. 38-MARY. 24...W.22-19 W.57/296 M.33/194 M.14/26/3/182 W.10/13/1/125 W.0 M.0)
(06-Wfu +1' 38-24 05-Mary. +2 22-12 04-MARY. -5' 13-7...SR: Maryland 40-14-1)
*Clemson 35 - NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16--Key early injuries undermining new Wolfpack HC Tom O'Brien's hopes for quick turnaround at Raleigh. Meanwhile, Clemson's new jr. QB Cullen Harper (80% & 8 TDP last 2 games!) making teams pay dearly for crowding line of scrimmage against dangerous RBs J. Davis & Spiller--something LY's Tiger triggerman Proctor couldn't do. Clemson has covered 3 straight at State, while Wolfpack now 1-8 vs. spread last 9.
(06-CLEM. 20-N. Car. St. 14...C.18-16 C.39/223 N.45/178 C.15/24/2/146 N.10/25/2/95 C.1 N.0)
(06-CLEM. -17' 20-14 05-Clem. +4' 31-10 04-CLEM. +1 26-20...SR: Clemson 48-26-1)
*CINCINNATI 38 - Marshall 13--Enthusiastic new Cincy HC Kelly has quickly re-energized Bearcats, who've mauled their first 3 foes TY by a combined 140-16! Poor-traveling Marshall (just 2-15 vs. spread last 17 away from home) next in line for a beating. Speedy Cincy defense already has 17 takeaways!
(04-Cincinnati -1' 32-14 (Fort Worth Bowl)...SR: Cincinnati 6-3-1)
*ARKANSAS 37 - Kentucky 34--In an SEC clash featuring offensive fireworks deluxe, willing to "take" with surging Kentucky (won 8 of last 9; only loss by 5 at Tennessee), brimming with confidence following 40-34 upset vs. heated rival L'Ville. Sure, Arkansas' Heisman candidate RB McFadden & his sidekick F. Jones will run for a ton, but Wildcats deadeye 6-5 sr. QB Woodson (68%, 257 passes without an int., 14 shy of Bowl Subdivision record) and his fastbreaking, balanced, high-octane attack (RB Little has 388 YR, 7.5 ypc) able to trade blows all the way. (DNP...SR: Kentucky 3-2)
*AUBURN 37 - New Mexico State 13--After facing 3 quality defenses, believe Tigers "smashmouth" tactics will eventually wear down a soft NMS defensive unit that gave up 44 (at New Mexico) in only road game to date. Auburn's fast, dual threat 6-2 frosh QB Burns (87 YR vs. Miss. State), who replaced struggling vet Cox week ago, uncorks attack running the option. And Aggies productive QB Hollbrook, who has lit up the offensive-minded WAC, finds no groove vs. swarming, angry SEC defense loaded with more playmakers than he's seen so far. (DNP...SR: Auburn 1-0)
*Connecticut 21 - PITTSBURGH 19--True, Huskies labored in last week's home win over lowly Temple. But insiders say that unimpressive performance due mostly to UConn peeking ahead to its Big East lidlifter. Touted Pitt true frosh RB McCoy (279 YR & 4 TDs on 6.3 ypc last 2 games) is the real McCoy. Prefer Huskies' poised juco QB Lorenzen over shaky Panther RS frosh K. Smith (2 ints., only 85 YP at Mich. State), however.
(06-CONN. 46-Pitt 45 (OT)...C.30-22 C.62/317 P.41/180 P.20/25/0/234 C.20/29/0/164 C.1 P.0)
(06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0 04-CONN. -6' 29-17...SR: Connecticut 2-1)
*OHIO 23 - Wyoming 21--After Ohio ran into a buzz saw in Blacksburg, will take any available points with competent Bobcat squad that owns a more diversified offense TY thanks to QB Bower (Illinois transfer). Wyo off emotionally draining effort on Boise State's "blue carpet" (Cowboys trailed 21-0 in 4th), so look for Ohio's star RB McCrae to "get off" after limited to an uncharacteristic 55 yds. in 22 carries at Virginia Tech (Ohio 8-0 when he rushes for 100+ yds.; 0-5 when he doesn't). (FIRST MEETING)
*TEXAS 54 - Rice 10--Texas is not 100% healthy and is blending in several new starters; not on par yet with 2005, 2006 teams. But maybe Longhorns don't have to be after leading Rice 35-0 at the H LY. Owls have declined in first year under new HC Bailiff, losing to Nicholls State, by 25 at Baylor, and 35 vs. Texas Tech. New OL group jelling rapidly for UT.
(06-Texas 52-RICE 7...T.22-11 T.43/330 R.20/M12 R.18/29/0/180 T.10/11/0/163 T.2 R.1)
(06-Texas -32 52-7 05-TEXAS -40' 51-10 04-TEXAS -32 35-13...SR: Texas 67-21-1)
*SOUTHERN CAL 44 - Washington State 23--Sure, Wazzu's upset chances about as likely as Ron Paul getting 2008 GOP nomination. And now that Pete Carroll apparently has his pick of blue-chip RBs to balance SC attack, Trojans look more potent than year ago. But "public team" SC has nonetheless been vulnerable to price inflation since the last days of the Leinart/Bush era. And remember that capable Coug QB Brink (10 TDP already) was throwing in end zone for win at end of game vs. Troy LY. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-S. Cal 28-WASH. ST. 22...W.26-20 S.32/135 W.28/131 W.26/47/1/287 S.23/32/1/269 S.1 W.0)
(06-Usc -16' 28-22 05-USC -29' 55-13 04-Usc -24' 42-12...SR: Southern Cal 54-8-4)
*South Carolina 16 - LSU 23--Loaded & deep LSU admittedly looks as strong as any team in America. But will still back athletic, self-assured USC squad that's covered 7 straight away from Columbia--including upset wins at Tenn., Arkansas, Clemson & near-miss at Florida. 'Cocks 6-3 sr. QB Mitchell now fully operating well-designed "fun and gun" for clever mentor Spurrier, who has saved a few gadget plays for this SEC battle. Whether it's Flynn or Perrilloux in control, Tiger attack showing no drop-off in '07. But more physical, sure-tackling Carolina stop unit has allowed more than 28 just once in last 21 reg.-season games (held Georgia sans a TD for 1st time in 6 yrs.!). Take it, pal.
(DNP...SR: LSU 14-2-1)
*WISCONSIN 24 - Iowa 21--Wisconsin has been less than impressive last two games, as UNLV had the lead with less than 3 mins. remaining and The Citadel threw 4 TD passes. Badger star RB P.J. Hill will find going a bit tougher this week against an aroused Iowa defense allowing just 2.0 ypc. Wisconsin hasn't beaten Iowa by more than 6 points in last 7 meetings, and Hawkeye RBs Young & Sims combining for 149 ypg rushing. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Wis. 24-IOWA 21...W.16-12 W.44/143 I.19/134 W.17/24/0/228 I.10/31/1/170 W.2 I.0)
(06-Wis. -1' 24-21 05-Iowa +2' 20-10 04-IOWA -3 30-7...SR: EVEN 40-40-2)
*San Jose State 24 - UTAH STATE 20--Difficult to make a case for either of these WAC stragglers. So, which go-against argument is more persuasive? A measured vote for anti-USU angle, as Utags (1-13 last 14) unaccustomed to any success, and QB L. Jackson's confidence lagging after Oklahoma debacle. At least bowl-winning QB Tafralis still on hand for SJSU, which finally won't be outmanned after being outclassed first 3.
(06-Sjs 21-UTAH ST. 14...S.19-16 U.44/156 S.30/123 S.15/28/2/252 U.21/24/0/145 S.2 U.1)
(06-SJS -16 21-14 05-USU -5 24-17...SR: San Jose State 18-10-1)
*TCU 45 - Smu 16--TCU suddenly adjusting its objectives more than the White House is with its Middle East policy (Frogs just went from BCS-hopeful to Las Vegas Bowl-wannabe). But SMU's problems appear far deeper, as disappointing Mustang "D" hasn't even been able to slow modest Sun Belt attacks last two weeks. And TCU has been itching for 2 years to get payback vs. Metroplex rival since SMU dealt Frogs their only loss of '05. Frogs poised RS frosh QB Dalton should destroy Mustang 2ndary that's allowed 1340 YP so far.
(05-SMU +14' 21-10 04-TCU -23 44-0...SR: TCU 40-38-7)
*Purdue 45 - MINNESOTA 38--Realize there's a potentially combustible combination present with Minnesota's pass defense (yielding 431 ypg) and Purdue QB Painter (313 ypg; 13 TD passes). However, feel Gophers capable of trading scores with Boilermakers behind RB Amir Pinnix (5.4 ypc; 4 TDs), soph playmaking WR Decker (19 recs., 3 TDs last 2 games) and maturing RS frosh QB Weber (606 YP, 8 TD passes last 2). CABLE TV--ESPN2
(06-PUR. 27-Minn. 21...M.23-21 M.45/194 P.32/178 P.18/27/0/243 M.21/35/1/227 P.0 M.1)
(06-PURDUE +2' 27-21 05-MINNESOTA -3' 42-35 (OT)...SR: Minnesota 31-29-3)
*Utah 19 - UNLV 18--Perhaps both of these MWC entries have rung false alarms in early action (Utah's romp past UCLA; UNLV's close call vs. Wisconsin). But scouts suggest upgrades along Rebel stop unit are real (LB Bell getting attention from pro scouts). And despite uprising vs. Bruins, Utes not likely to stretch UNLV's "D" as did Colt Brennan did last week if backup QB Grady still at controls (starter B. Johnson has a chance to return).
(06-UTA 45-Unlv 23...Ut.19-17 Ut.34/110 Lv.29/65 Ut.20/24/0/290 Lv.25/35/2/232 Ut.2 Lv.1)
(06-UTAH -21' 45-23 05-Utah -12 42-32 04-UNLV -24 63-28...SR: Utah 11-1)
*Oregon 45 - STANFORD 20--Credit Jim Harbaugh for rediscovering pulse on Farm, but Stanford's version of the West Coast has about as much in common with Oregon's dynamic spread as Elisabeth Hasselbeck has with Rosie O'Donnell. Ducks (47 ppg) at full throttle on attack under creative new o.c. Kelly, who has QB Dixon doing a pretty good Vince Young impression in early going. Note Mike Bellotti has won and covered last 5 in series.
(06-ORE. 48-Stan. 10...O.28-20 O.41/298 S.35/100 O.21/30/0/236 S.20/34/0/224 O.1 S.1)
(06-ORE. -12 48-10 05-Ore. -6' 44-20 04-Ore. +3' 16-13...SR: Stanford 44-25-1)
*ARIZONA STATE 31 - Oregon State 13--Although OSU WR Stroughter (9 catches last week) has returned to active duty, we need more evidence than torch job vs. low-echelon Idaho State to have confidence in Mike Riley's rotating QBs (who tossed 6 picks in previous loss at Cincy). Especially at hostile Tempe, where rejuvenated ASU won first 3 by 27 ppg and should have services of key RB Torain & TE Miller after resting both vs. SDSU. Dennis Erickson not likely to ease up vs. former employer, either.
(06-ORE. ST. 44-Asu 10...O.18-14 O.36/121 A.34/99 O.17/36/0/282 A.9/29/2/124 O.0 A.0)
(06-OSU -2 44-10 05-Asu -6' 42-24 04-ASU -7' 27-14...SR: Arizona State 22-9-1)
ADDED GAMES
KANSAS 44 - Florida International 6--FIU (Bowl Subdivision-leading 15 straight losses) is the last of KU's four, visiting, completely-beatable, non-Big XII foes. Hot Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing now has 10 TDP, while speedy all-league CB Aqib Talib has a TDC as WR in each of the first three games. Panthers producing 6.3 ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
*Troy 40 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 26--After posting 33 ppg vs. heavyweight opposition (Arkansas, Florida, and Ok. State), QB Haugabook and Troy's potent spread could do even more damage in Sun Belt. Meanwhile, erratic ULL QB Desormeaux performed like one of Notre Dame's QBs with 4 picks in Cajuns' 38-17 humiliation vs. McNeese State last week.
(06-TROY 42-La.-Laf. 28...T.19-18 T.39/208 L.38/170 L.16/30/1/230 T.12/19/1/153 T.1 L.0)
(06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28 04-Troy -13' 13-10...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-2)
*Florida Atlantic 45 - NORTH TEXAS 35--Possibility of "hangover" a concern for FAU squad celebrating last week's home win over Big Ten rep Minnesota. Still, can't ignore HUGE experience edge venerable Owl HC Schnellenberger enjoys over creative new UNT mentor Dodge, who was on sidelines in high school LY.
(06-Fla. Atl. 17-N. TEX. 16...17-17 N.40/254 F.38/132 F.12/25/0/107 N.11/18/3/84 F.0 N.1)
(06-Fau +5 17-16 05-FAU -3' 26-23 04-Fau +7' 20-13...SR: Florida Atlantic 3-0)
*TENNESSEE 34 - Arkansas State 20--Sure, UT in testy mood following embarrassing 59-20 smashing in "The Swamp." But troubled Vols might still be unable to shake a veteran, well-balanced Arkansas State squad (250 YR, 266 YP vs. SMU), ably led by fiery, mobile, undervalued 6-1 soph QB Leonard (65%), who does business vs. young, injured UT 2ndary ill-supported by a weak pass rush (only 3 sacks so far). Embroiled HC Fulmer just 8-22 as home chalk since '02, while fearless Indians 8-3 as DD dog since '04. (FIRST MEETING)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
INDIANA by 7 over Illinois
CLEMSON by 19 over N. Carolina State
SOUTH CAROLINA Plus over Lsu
TCU by 29 over Smu
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
CKO
The Gold Sheet
10 *NEBRASKA over Ball State
Late Score Forecast:
*NEBRASKA 41 - Ball State 10
After suffering through a long night of being humiliated by No. 1 USC,
Nebraska will be looking for a whipping boy on whom to take out some
frustration. Ball State is stepping way up in class (faced Mia.-O, E. Mich.
& Navy), and the Falcons will be running into a focused Nebraska team that
has had success as a "bully" recording a 10-3 spread record last 13 laying
double digits. Ball State has suffered key injuries on defense, including
losing leading returning tackler MLB Wendell Brown for the season. Falcon
offensive line starters LT Andre Ramsey and C Dan Gerberry have been playing
through injuries. Ball State yielded 521 rushing yards against Navy, and the
Cornhuskers, who rushed for 413 yards in season-opener against Nevada, will
do similar damage.
10 CONNECTICUT over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 24 - *Pittsburgh 21
Long-time Big East scouts firmly believe oddsmakers are overreacting to last
week's results in posting mediocre Pitt (only 13-13 SU under 3rd-year HC
Wannstedt) more than TD favorite vs. experienced 3-0 UConn. Huskies were
noticeably uninspired in ho-hum 22-17 win vs. Temple, but hard-drivin' HC
Randy Edsall will crack the whip and raise UConn's intensity level in this
key Big East clash. UConn's aggressive front 7 should bottle up Panthers'
main weapon RB McCoy, putting extra pressure on unpolished RS frosh QB K.
Smith (only 85 YP vs. Mich. State), who is running limited set of low-risk
pass plays. Meanwhile, Huskies 6-5 jr. triggerman Lorenzen (Iowa St.
transfer is hitting 68%) has a quality corps of WRs and super-soph RB Donald
Brown (240 YR, 4.6 ypc in 2007; 205 YR & 3 TDs vs. Pitt LY) at his disposal.
10 EAST CAROLINA over *W. Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 19 - *W. Virginia 31
Sure, it's a little scary to stare straight down the barrel of the loaded
West Virginia gun. Or, in Mountaineers' case, their potent spread option and
game-altering components QB White & RB Slaton. But doubt ECU will blink after
covering big prices vs. similar WVU sides the past two seasons and holding
explosive Mounties to only 153 YR (and less than 4 ypc) in last year's Pirate
cover at Greenville. A similarly quick-footed ECU stop unit should make
White, Slaton, and new threat frosh RB Devine work for their yards and points
again. And along with improved play from emerging QB Pinkney, underrated
Pirates should have more than enough to again stay within hefty impost. Note
that ECU has been a very profitable road dog (10-1 last 11 in role!) since HC
Skip Holtz arrived in '05.
10 *UNLV over Utah
Late Score Forecast:
*UNLV 26 - Utah 24
Utah's righteous 44-6 smashing of UCLA last week has yielded a fluffy
pointspread in this one. And host UNLV will welcome Utah after having to
deal with Hawaii's Colt Brennan and all of his speedy receivers last week.
Remember, the Rebels had Wisconsin down 13-12 with two minutes to play a
couple of weeks ago, when rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Travis Dixon hit 23
of 36 for 258 yards. Utah has lost six starters to injury since the
beginning of the season, although sr. QB Brian Johnson (shoulder separation
on his passing arm) might see some action in this one. Despite their own bad
injury luck first two years under Mike Sanford (former Utah assistant under
Urban Meyer), hard-fighting Rebels 7-4 as a home dog in his tenure.
TOTALS: UNDER (43.5) in San Diego-Green Bay game-Prideful Charger defense
steaming after big loss at N.E.; Packers good on defense, not always so good
on offense...OVER (45.5) in Tennessee-New Orleans game-Drew Brees and Saints'
offense due for an outburst in first home game; Titans "over" 5 of last 6 on
the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): ALABAMA (-3.5) vs. Georgia-Bulldogs
rebuilding in several departments and playing first game on road; Nick
Saban's zone-blitz defense will often be a puzzle for strong-armed QB
Stafford...BOWLING GREEN (-20.5) vs. Temple-Well-rested Falcons well remember
LY's upset at Temple; 6-3 soph QB Sheehan running the BG offense will fine
precision and confidence...AUBURN (-17) vs. New Mexico State-Aggies stepping
WAY up in class; Tommy Tuberville needs a big win after last week's home loss
to Mississippi State...SAN FRANCISCO (+9) at Pittsburgh-Niners' defense
substantially improved due to new additions; Frank Gore's presence allows
S.F. to play conservatively on offense...TENNESSEE (+4) at New Orleans
(Monday Night)-Saints eager to rally, but improved Titans a noteworthy 12-2
last 14 as an underdog!
The Gold Sheet
10 *NEBRASKA over Ball State
Late Score Forecast:
*NEBRASKA 41 - Ball State 10
After suffering through a long night of being humiliated by No. 1 USC,
Nebraska will be looking for a whipping boy on whom to take out some
frustration. Ball State is stepping way up in class (faced Mia.-O, E. Mich.
& Navy), and the Falcons will be running into a focused Nebraska team that
has had success as a "bully" recording a 10-3 spread record last 13 laying
double digits. Ball State has suffered key injuries on defense, including
losing leading returning tackler MLB Wendell Brown for the season. Falcon
offensive line starters LT Andre Ramsey and C Dan Gerberry have been playing
through injuries. Ball State yielded 521 rushing yards against Navy, and the
Cornhuskers, who rushed for 413 yards in season-opener against Nevada, will
do similar damage.
10 CONNECTICUT over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 24 - *Pittsburgh 21
Long-time Big East scouts firmly believe oddsmakers are overreacting to last
week's results in posting mediocre Pitt (only 13-13 SU under 3rd-year HC
Wannstedt) more than TD favorite vs. experienced 3-0 UConn. Huskies were
noticeably uninspired in ho-hum 22-17 win vs. Temple, but hard-drivin' HC
Randy Edsall will crack the whip and raise UConn's intensity level in this
key Big East clash. UConn's aggressive front 7 should bottle up Panthers'
main weapon RB McCoy, putting extra pressure on unpolished RS frosh QB K.
Smith (only 85 YP vs. Mich. State), who is running limited set of low-risk
pass plays. Meanwhile, Huskies 6-5 jr. triggerman Lorenzen (Iowa St.
transfer is hitting 68%) has a quality corps of WRs and super-soph RB Donald
Brown (240 YR, 4.6 ypc in 2007; 205 YR & 3 TDs vs. Pitt LY) at his disposal.
10 EAST CAROLINA over *W. Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
EAST CAROLINA 19 - *W. Virginia 31
Sure, it's a little scary to stare straight down the barrel of the loaded
West Virginia gun. Or, in Mountaineers' case, their potent spread option and
game-altering components QB White & RB Slaton. But doubt ECU will blink after
covering big prices vs. similar WVU sides the past two seasons and holding
explosive Mounties to only 153 YR (and less than 4 ypc) in last year's Pirate
cover at Greenville. A similarly quick-footed ECU stop unit should make
White, Slaton, and new threat frosh RB Devine work for their yards and points
again. And along with improved play from emerging QB Pinkney, underrated
Pirates should have more than enough to again stay within hefty impost. Note
that ECU has been a very profitable road dog (10-1 last 11 in role!) since HC
Skip Holtz arrived in '05.
10 *UNLV over Utah
Late Score Forecast:
*UNLV 26 - Utah 24
Utah's righteous 44-6 smashing of UCLA last week has yielded a fluffy
pointspread in this one. And host UNLV will welcome Utah after having to
deal with Hawaii's Colt Brennan and all of his speedy receivers last week.
Remember, the Rebels had Wisconsin down 13-12 with two minutes to play a
couple of weeks ago, when rapidly-developing RS frosh QB Travis Dixon hit 23
of 36 for 258 yards. Utah has lost six starters to injury since the
beginning of the season, although sr. QB Brian Johnson (shoulder separation
on his passing arm) might see some action in this one. Despite their own bad
injury luck first two years under Mike Sanford (former Utah assistant under
Urban Meyer), hard-fighting Rebels 7-4 as a home dog in his tenure.
TOTALS: UNDER (43.5) in San Diego-Green Bay game-Prideful Charger defense
steaming after big loss at N.E.; Packers good on defense, not always so good
on offense...OVER (45.5) in Tennessee-New Orleans game-Drew Brees and Saints'
offense due for an outburst in first home game; Titans "over" 5 of last 6 on
the road.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): ALABAMA (-3.5) vs. Georgia-Bulldogs
rebuilding in several departments and playing first game on road; Nick
Saban's zone-blitz defense will often be a puzzle for strong-armed QB
Stafford...BOWLING GREEN (-20.5) vs. Temple-Well-rested Falcons well remember
LY's upset at Temple; 6-3 soph QB Sheehan running the BG offense will fine
precision and confidence...AUBURN (-17) vs. New Mexico State-Aggies stepping
WAY up in class; Tommy Tuberville needs a big win after last week's home loss
to Mississippi State...SAN FRANCISCO (+9) at Pittsburgh-Niners' defense
substantially improved due to new additions; Frank Gore's presence allows
S.F. to play conservatively on offense...TENNESSEE (+4) at New Orleans
(Monday Night)-Saints eager to rally, but improved Titans a noteworthy 12-2
last 14 as an underdog!
Marc Lawrence
Playbook
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse by 41
Nothing cures losing like a good, old-fashioned bloodletting and no
team more accurately fi ts the victim profi le right now than the hapless
Orange. Louisville will be hopping mad after losing to Kentucky with
just 28 seconds left in the game and should bag its 21st consecutive win
at Papa John’s Stadium today. The high-fl ying Cardinals have won by an
average of 51 points per game during that streak, bad news for a Syracuse
team that’s covered just ONCE in 16 games when allowing more than 42
points. New U of L coach Kragthorpe should quiet the grumbling over
the Kentucky loss (Cards 5-0 ATS after UK) by improving on Louisville’s
11-4 ATS mark as Big East favorites of more than 15 points.
Illinois over INDIANA by 6
When these two get together, it’s usually to decide who’ll be taking
up residence in the BIG 10 basement. But both teams are off to great
starts in ’07, making this conference opener quite an intriguing
matchup. Illinois head coach Zook is winless against the Hoosiers and
will look to break through with a defense that improved by over 100
yards per game in 2006. That unit will have to tighten the chinstraps
to stop an unbeaten Indiana squad churning out 44 points every time
they take the fi eld. We think they can, particularly with IU hiding this
pointspread skeleton in the closet: 0-7 SU & ATS in the series when
playing off a SU win. In a war between two programs on the rise, we’ll
back the vengeful Illini.
5 BEST BET
What was penciled in as an automatic win at the season’s
beginning has now morphed into a grim, must-win situation for
the fl oundering Midshipmen. Saturday’s embarrassing defeat
against Ball State sunk Navy to 0-3 ATS this year, a far cry from
the Middie teams that had compiled a superb 30-14-1 pointspread
record over the previous four seasons. Last week’s Duke win over
Northwestern snapped a 22-game losing streak but the Blue Devils
will be suiting up for the third leg of a four game road trip and
have dropped three straight (both SU & ATS) in this series. Navy
is a crisp 44-11 ATS when winning SU as a favorite, including 22-4
ATS when off a loss. Look for Swabbies to right the ship today.
NAVY over Duke by 24
Baylor over BUFFALO by 3
Baylor, fresh off a tense 7-point win over lowly Texas State, carries the
stigma of a horrendous 5-46 SU record when leaving Waco to face a
lined opponent. But they have compiled a 7-3 ATS mark lately as road
favorites, a fi gure unfortunately negated by Buffalo’s 18-11 spread
record at home off a SU loss. When bears venture into buffalo country,
it’s usually bad news for the bison… but this is football, not Mutual of
Omaha’s ‘Wild Kingdom.’ Even so, we’ll watch from far, far away.
AKRON over Kent State by 3
Golden Flashes off to the better start in ’07 and look to up their mark
to 3-1 SU in a series that has seen the visitor cover seven of the previous
nine meetings. We were a bit surprised to see Kent open as the favorite,
but we’ve learned that it is never wise to second-guess the linesmaker
(Akron was a road favorite in last year’s 22-point loss at Kent). The gold
tarnishes further according to a Game Four Angle that supports teams in
home openers off a loss in which they scored 14 or more points in their
previous game (13-3 ATS since 1980). With that we’ll Zip-it-up.
BOSTON COLL over Army by 27
A BC is on a major offensive roll. QB Matt Ryan is making all the right
decisions while throwing with laser-sharp accuracy and his Eagles have
taken down three consecutive ACC foes to start the season. One note
of caution: teams that open with a trio of victories over conference
opponents (happened only eight times since 1980) are just 2-6 SU in
Game Four when tackling non-league foes. The bottom line here is the
Beantown Boys will be laying too many points for our liking.
COLORADO over Miami Oh by 10
After back-to-back embarrassments against Arizona State and Florida
State, Colorado probably can’t wait for the fi rst MAC team ever to
show up on its doorstep. Miami’s loss of star RB Brandon Murphy
severely hurts the ‘Hawks chances of carrying out their ‘mission team’
role in ’07 and today’s game is their fi rst against a Big 12 opponent
since losing to Iowa State in the 2004 Independence Bowl. With Buffy
a not-so-bankable 4-8 ATS at Boulder before taking on Oklahoma,
these losers are about as appealing as Rosie O’Donnell in a mudwrestling
match. Just say no.
NEBRASKA over Ball St by 18
Dangerous spot for a Nebraska team that could still be wearing the
scars of last week’s brutal beating at the hands of USC. We may joke
about the Gonads but they’ve clearly over achieved so far in ’07,
racking up 72 points in consecutive wins. History tells us that the
Testicular Ones fail as non-conference dogs in this price range (1-5 ATS)
but the Huskers weigh in with an equally disappointing 3-7 ATS record
as favorites in the same role. BSU’s Nate Davis in one of the MAC’s
top signal callers, and with Nebbish carrying our SMART BOX seal of
disapproval, we’ll hang with the Gonads against Big Red today.
BYU over Air Force by 14
Upstart Flyboys have parlayed back-to-back upset wins into a 3-0
start but should fi nd themselves grounded today. The PLAYBOOK
database tells us that unbeaten teams in Game Four off consecutive
SU dog wins are 0-4 ATS when made a dog or favorite of 5 or less
points. Cougars have owned this series playing at Provo (7-2 ATS)
and are currently riding a 7-game home win streak as they head into
this homecoming battle. After suffering a pair of narrow but brutal
defeats, expect BYU to be sky high for a foe they’ve whipped by 19
points per game since 2004.
UCLA over Washington by 3
Both teams tasted defeat for the fi rst time last week but UCLA’s
smackdown at Utah qualifi ed as one of the year’s biggest shockers.
Bruins’ coach Karl Dorrell earns his money at home against fellow
PAC 10 teams, making a 12-4-1 deposit at the pointspread bank. The
little old coach from Pasadena has also seen his team cover seven
of the previous nine get-togethers with their neighbors from the
north. Even so, the SMART BOX says “Huskies Times Two,” a strong
recommendation to ride Ty Willingham’s sled dogs here.
ALABAMA over Georgia by 1
First meeting for these bitter SEC rivals since 2003 and even though
new Tide coach Nick Saban has compiled a sweet 31-16 ATS log when
playing a conference foe off a SU win, current reality tells us that Bama
is just 1-6 ATS as SEC home chalk of 7 or fewer points. The Dawgs
have covered three of the last four in the series and got to rest some
key players last week while Alabama was forced to pull out a 41-38
thriller over Arkansas in the closing seconds. With Georgia on a 5-0-1
ATS run as road pups, the Bulldogs should erase the memory of their
conference-opening loss to South Carolina by rolling back the Tide
in Tuscaloosa today.
Florida over MISSISSIPPI by 24
Today’s Urban legend is all about nails in Ed Orgeron’s coaching coffi n.
Despite a sterling 10-3 ATS record as SEC home dogs, Florida’s 59-point
outburst against Rocky Top points us toward another Ole Miss stat:
10-54 ATS when they lose SU at Oxford! The Gainesville Reptiles don’t
bring along much pointspread support – 1-6 away versus conference
foes and 1-6 as double-digit road favorites – but such numbers won’t
scare us off one of the country’s most dominant programs when
matched against a rapidly-fading Mississippi team. Lay the wood.
3 BEST BET
Even though Northwestern slinks into town after blowing what
would have been just their second 3-0 start in the last 45 seasons
with a humiliating home loss to pitiful Duke, the Cats still enjoy
the support of our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) – and our ever
sagacious square, the SMART BOX. That may not convince those
of you who’ve seen OSU trample the visitors by a 102-17 margin
in the last two meetings but those routs were engineered by Troy
Smith, Ted Ginn, Jr. and a host of others now playing on Sunday.
With NU cashing 14 in a row before facing Michigan, we can’t
trust Ohio State’s present popgun offense laying this many points
to an up-and-coming BIG 10 foe.
OHIO ST over Northwestern by 10
MICHIGAN over Penn St by 1
Wolverines’ win over the team currently masquerading as Notre Dame
snapped their longest losing streak since 1959. But before skipping
past the Irish 38-0, Lloyd Carr’s defense had surrendered 73 points and
1,011 yards in just two games, fi gures that should have Penn State
OC Galen Hall licking his chops. Even so, too many confl icting trends
muddy the water. Michigan has won eight in a row outright against
the Nits and are 7-3 ATS at Ann Arbor when taking on an undefeated
foe in Game Four. And, thanks to last week’s destruction of Charlie’s
Angels, Michigan fi nally has a Hart beat.
Texas Tech over OKLAHOMA ST by 3
Okie State won’t have time to sulk over Friday night’s 23-41 no-show
against Troy… not with the gunslinging offense of the Red Raiders
headed to Stillwater. Tech has overpowered Okie State to cash in 10
of the series’ last 13 games and looks to be hitting on all cylinders.
Cowboys are no slouch in the scoring department, either, and QB
Bobby Reid must lead the way in this important BIG 12 lid-lifter. With
the homeboys now 5-0 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or less points, we’ll
saddle up for a ride with the cowpokes.
Michigan St over NOTRE DAME by 13
Three games into the 2007 season, Notre Dame has failed to score a
single offensive touchdown. None! That’s probably because they are
averaging MINUS 5 yards rushing per game! That’s bad news for the
Irish, especially since Michigan State has put this series in a chokehold
(8-2-1 ATS including 5-0 ATS at South Bend). But MSU will fi nd itself as
a favorite when they’ve taken the points in 15 of the last 17 tussles,
not a solid recommendation for a new coach making his fi rst road trip.
Notre Dame’s outstanding 13-5-1 ATS streak as home dogs means little
in light of the current squad’s ineptitude but Sparty's inability to put
away Pittsburgh last week douses our interest.
C FLORIDA over Memphis by 10
Knights opened their new stadium in style by taking mighty Texas to
the limit in a narrow 32-35 defeat. And if you've played the Longhorns
and fi nd yourself in a lined game at home the following week, you’ve
built a nice 5-1 ATS nest egg lately. UCF’s 21-point demolition of
Memphis in their previous meeting at Orlando plus the Knights’ 6-3
ATS record at home versus conference foes seals the deal.
Ga Tech over VIRGINIA by 6
Tech looked like an absolute wreck against BC (fell behind 21-0 in an
ugly 10-24 loss) and Charlottesville doesn’t look like a hospitable place
to effect repairs, particularly when the hometown Cavs are 8-1 ATS
as ACC home dogs and 12-2 against the number when playing with
conference revenge. That puts us in the middle of a real dilemma as
the trends say to play Virginia but the SMART BOX says to ride the
Ramblin’ Wreck. With the bumblebees looking to make amends for
their poor showing againt BC, we'll side with the Techsters.
HOUSTON over Colorado St by 4
After a pair of gutsy efforts that ended in demoralizing defeats, Sonny
Lubick can’t wait to get his Rams out of Colorado. CSU is 9-2 ATS when
playing a road game with rest and also bring along Lubick’s superb
34-20-1 ATS history as an underdog. Houston’s 24-point pounding of
Tulane last week means nothing as the Cougars were undressed by
Oregon on opening weekend. The Coogs also own a shameful 5-17
ATS record in home openers. Wrap it all up and it looks like we’ll get
ram-bunctious today.
CALIFORNIA over Arizona by 21
Arizona’s Mike Stoops has failed to capitalize off his team’s stunning wins
over Cal and Oregon late last season, and appears to be in serious trouble
after Saturday’s home loss to New Mexico drops the Wildcats to 1-2. The
Desert Cats are an appalling 4-18 ATS as targets for PAC 10 avengers
while the Bears are a golden 21-2 ATS when they win SU with revenge.
Cal’s big win over Tennessee may have been tarnished somewhat by the
Vols' annihilation at Gainesville but there’s no doubting they’re vastly
superior to the under achieving Cats. Bears have the talent to challenge
USC this year and won’t let Arizona get in their way today.
IDAHO over No Illinois by 3
Who scheduled this game? Northern Illinois’ season is rapidly
unraveling (0-3 after home loss to weak Eastern Michigan) and the
Huskies fi nd themselves dead in the sights of a 1-17 SU disaster when
playing a non-MAC foe away from DeKalb. We’d normally give Idaho
zero consideration to cover any game but after Saturday night’s 49-
31 USC win over Nebraska, the Vandals’ season-opening 38-10 loss to
the Trojans looks downright encouraging. The home team does fi eld
17 returning starters and with a recent 4-1 ATS record in lined games
against non-conference teams, we may just have to Go With Da Ho
over the visiting Huskies.
BOWLING GREEN over Temple by 19
Poor Owls were undeniably robbed last week at Connecticut as a gamewinning
TD catch was overturned after offi cial review and they've
now dropped an incredible 22 consecutive road decisions. Temple got
destroyed 42-7 in its offi cial MAC debut against Buffalo but actually
upset the Falcons last year as double-digit dogs. Bowling Green can
boast a lofty 30-13 ATS mark when winning SU in conference games
but they’re also shackled by a 0-7 string of ATS failures when favored
by 10 or more points. Pick your poison.
WEST VIRGINIA over East Carolina by 20
White & Slaton just keep rolling along, piling up points and yardage
en route to West Virginia’s inevitable Big East showdown with Rutgers.
But the Mounties can’t afford to look past a dangerous ECU team
brandishing a 10-1 ATS record as a road dog under Skip, especially with
an even bigger revenge game against South Florida on deck (USF handed
WVU its only home loss last year). The Pirate ship sails into Morgantown
displaying a 5-1 ATS fl ag when playing with non-conference revenge
and Captain Holtz commands a developing star of his own in sensational
QB Patrick Pinkney. The Mountaineer defense has not been dominating,
allowing just over 20 points per game and that could be enough to
allow East Carolina to sneak inside the big number.
Iowa St over TOLEDO by 3
Cyclones can be forgiven if they suffer a massive letdown here after
their thrilling 15-14 conquest of hated Iowa but they rarely seem to
do so, posting a decent 11-6 mark after Hawkeye games (ISU also a
sterling 13-3 SU vs MAC opposition). Toledo remains on the launch
pad after an abortive 0-3 start and the Rockets' once-proud record of
success in the Glass Bowl – 38-5 SU and 26-11 ATS – is fading thanks
to a recent 2-3 SU record in their last fi ve home appearances. The
distraction of an ongoing gambling probe and the presence of an
old Native American disease (Lacka D) combine to make the Rockets
sputter again.
SOUTH FLORIDA over N Carolina by 17
USF fans are praying this game doesn’t come down to a Bulls’ fi eld
goal attempt: Delbert Alvarado missed four of six against Auburn
(one from 21 yards) but got to keep his job after the defense kept
the Tigers out of the end zone in overtime. Touchdowns may be the
order of the day for the Bulls, however, as they rumbled to 417 yards
in last season’s easy 37-20 win over the Tar Heels. Point production is
of paramount importance when considering a play on a Butch Daviscoached
team: he’s 1-19 ATS when scoring fewer than 21 points but
36-11 ATS when he equals or surpasses the magic number. USF has
held 10 of the past 12 Tampa day-trippers to under 21 points and come
in off a week of rest. Carolina’s heels will be pointing skyward after
this running of the Bulls.
WAKE FOREST over Maryland by 1
Okay, the Terrapin ‘D’ did allow 448 yards in a 14-31 loss to West
Virginia but that fi gure represents the Mounties’ lowest offensive
output this season. Terps seem to have Wake’s number, winning and
covering seven of the last eight showdowns. With QB Riley Skinner
still questionable, we feel the Demons will be paying back the devil
for the conference wins they captured en route to last year’s ACC
title. Wake coach Jim Grobe is a money-burning 14-28 ATS as chalk, a
fact that only adds weight to a SMART BOX recommendation to play
Maryland. When The Box speaks, we listen.
Clemson over NC STATE by 3
The Pack’s wobbly 1-2 debut is not what the NC State brass had in
mind when they shelled out the big bucks to steal Tom O’Brien from
Boston College. But State has played hard in both defeats (outyarded
BC) and should be primed and ready for its ACC home opener. Tigers
have cashed in their last three trips to Raleigh but cannot be trusted
as conference road favorites (1-7 ATS). The Pack has scratched out a
6-1 ATS mark as wolves – err, dogs – when playing with conference
revenge and O’Brien is every bit the equal of Clemson coach Tommy
Bowden. Oh, yeah... Clemmie was outgained in their 28-point romp
over Furman last week. That howling sound you’ll here on Saturday
is a Wolfpack cover.
CINCINNATI over Marshall by 24
The Bad News Bearcats are off to their best start since 2003, biting off
47 points per game in a 3-0 start. Cincy hasn’t fared well against CUSA
foes, posting a weak 4-9 ATS effort (1-6 ATS as chalk). However, new
coach Brian Kelly has these guys so fi red up that those negative numbers
may be of no consequence. Marshall has failed both SU & ATS in two
previous trips to Big East sites, losing by 26 and 32 points. The trip across
the Ohio River from Huntington to the Queen City may be a short one
but it’ll sure feel a lot longer on the silent ride back home.
ARKANSAS over Kentucky by 7
Kentucky lost the last meeting between these SEC adversaries, falling
in a 63-70 overtime shootout in 2003. Based on what we saw out of
each team last week, a similar outcome would not surprise. However,
we’re also looking at two squads on polar opposites of the emotional
spectrum. Arkansas fought all the way back from a 31-10 defi cit to
take the lead against Alabama before suffering a last-second loss.
Kentucky won in precisely the same manner, falling behind Louisville
in a seesaw affair before launching a 57-yard scoring strike with just
28 seconds remaining. The Hogs are a horrible 4-10 ATS after tackling
the Tide while Kentucky has covered its last fi ve SEC openers. Trends
call for the Cats. We need more time to ponder.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
Iowa over WISCONSIN by 6
Wisky’s Bret Bielema will make coaching start number 17 against
Iowa while Hawkeyes’ leader Kirk Ferentz comes to town as
one of only 21 Bowl Subdivision coaches who have logged 100
consecutive games with their current affi liation. The Badgers,
however, have better players and take the fi eld carrying the
nation’s longest win streak (12). Wisconsin had dropped four
straight to Iowa before last year’s breakthrough win in Iowa
City so the Hawkeyes will arrive in Madison burning for revenge.
They’ll also be hot after last week’s embarrassing loss to mediocre
Iowa State and they usually respond, posting a 6-1 ATS mark off
a loss the Cyclones (4-0 off a road game). In what should be an
extremely physical contest, we’ll let the SMART BOX direct us to
Black-and-Gold corner.
4 BEST BET
This is like trying to choose between death by hanging or fi ring
squad. Pittsburgh’s Wannstedt is an atrocious 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS
facing off against a greater than .600 opponent, but Uconn is
an equally dreadful 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big East road affairs.
We know the latter will surely improve. Not so sure about the
former, however. Huskies were fl at as a fl apjack against Temple
last Saturday and will have to bring more to the table today for
a win. The Panthers own a solid defensive unit but sorely miss
injured QB Bill Stull (Kevan Smith threw for just 85 yards with two
interceptions versus Michigan State). It’s games like these that send
us in search of the SMART BOX and da box says ‘Connecticut.’
Connecticut over PITTSBURGH by 7
AUBURN over N Mexico St by 13
It fi nally happened: Tommy Tuberville got ‘Croomed’… that’s what
you call it when your team loses outright to Mississippi State (three
coaches who were ‘Croomed’ also got axed at the end of the season).
With Auburn sinking at 1-2, you might automatically assume that
the Tigers would be so pissed that their next opponent would face
possible mutilation. Such reasoning may not work against highscoring
New Mexico State (32 points per game in ’06), especially
when we note that non-conference, double-digit dogs that score
24 or more points are an amazing 404-76-6 ATS (84%!). Tuberville’s
0-8 ATS streak as double-digit chalk inspires as much confi dence as
George Bush’s Iraq policy… NONE. Aubbie hasn’t lost three straight
since 2001 but the pass-happy Aggies have the offensive tools to
spring another upset.
Wyoming over OHIO U by 10
Wyoming in Ohio? Apparently the Cowboys want to see more of the
good old USA (played at Florida, Syracuse and Virginia the last two
years) and decided Athens, OH was worth a look. They’ll congratulate
themselves on their latest geographical choice when they fi nd out the
Pokes are a SMART BOX Double play! Wyoming has played sound
football this season and head coach Joe Glenn has rung the register
against non-conference opponents (13-5 ATS). Saddle up!
TEXAS over Rice by 36
The Owls have imploded in 2007, losing SU to Nicholls State and
getting torched for 101 points in losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. The
visitor has gotten the money in four of the last fi ve games but Texas
can claim a 5-1 ATS mark as double-digit home favorites against a nonleague
opponent with revenge. The Longhorns, however, have looked
less than impressive in previous home games against Arkansas State
and TCU. We don’t want Rice but the huge number has us keeping
our distance from Bevo, too.
USC over Washington St by 25
The Trojans sat idle for two weeks after their perfunctory win over
Idaho, listening to the talk about how LSU should really be the nation’s
top-ranked team, then went into Lincoln last Saturday night and
positively destroyed a good Nebraska squad. Pete Carroll continues
to build on his stellar ATS fi gures: 16-8 versus a PAC 10 foe in the
Coliseum, a number that tightens to 11-4 if the opponent is playing
with revenge. With Carroll winning 50 of his last 54 games SU, the
‘revenge thing’ occurs quite often. The bottom line, though, is that
this score will be whatever the Trojans want it to be – and another
hefty price means we won’t be there.
LSU over S Carolina by 11
The entire country is enamored with LSU right now but before you
head to their window, hear this… Tigers coach Les Miles has not
enjoyed great success in career conference play: he’s just 23-25-1 ATS
in league tilts, a number that dips to 7-17-2 ATS if the foe is off a win.
Spurrier, meanwhile, has fought to a 44-20 ATS mark in conference
roadies, including a recent 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS run. Despite the perceived
superiority of the Tigers, we look for the wily Spurrier to outwit the
lantern-jawed Miles and bring the cash back to Columbia.
UTAH ST over San Jose St by 6
Not only has Spartan coach Dick Tomey been handcuffed by the loss of
QB Adam Trafalis and RB Yonus Davis, he also has to drive the bus out
of San Jose for a fourth straight week! Teams in that situation have not
fared well, going just 2-16 SU & 6-12 ATS. The Aggies stand 2-1 ATS in
’07 thanks largely to the play of 18 returning starters and should make
the most of that edge in today’s homecoming contest.
TCU over Smu by 18
A season of great expectations has quickly turned sour in Forth Worth
and Gary Patterson will have to pull out all the stops to keep his Frogs
from sinking into an abyss of despair. But consecutive second-half
collapses have made for a mighty deep hole. TCU is a sparkling 9-1 ATS
at home off back-to-back road trips but are a mirror-opposite 1-9 ATS
when favored at home off consecutive SU losses. Despite the fact that
the Frogs were upset by +14.5 home dog SMU in their last meeting
(2005) – and the fact that the Mustangs have been stampeded for 125
points in three games – we just can’t pull the trigger until we see how
Patterson’s team responds.
Purdue over MINNESOTA by 17
Joe Tiller has lit a fi re under his Boilermakers: in four games, Purdue
has piled up 149 points, 959 yards passing and 645 rushing. Triggerman
Curtis Painter has delivered for Tiller, completing 69 percent of his
passes for 13 TD’s with zero picks… not what Minnesota’s defense
needs to face after allowing over 500 yards in all three of its games
(perhaps ‘Punky’ Brewster needs to learn a thing or two about
coaching that side of the ball). Boilers have covered seven of eight
in the series and Tiller stands 22-7 ATS when his team wins SU on
the BIG 10 road. This game has the unique smell of B.O. (Blow Out)
written all over it.
ADDED GAMES
KANSAS over Florida Int’l by 28
Even though FIU lost 23-9 to Miami, FL, they acquitted themselves well
against a superior team and avoided a repeat of last year’s ugly brawl
between the two. The 3-0 Jayhawks play the last of four consecutive
home games to open the season, not always a bankable situation:
home favorites of 14 or more points is this role are a weak 7-13 –1
ATS when playing off a SU win. KU also just fi nished chowing on a
big helping of revenge against Toledo and could be peeking ahead
to next week’s blood war with Kansas State. Too many points to lay
with a potentially disinterested favorite.
Troy over LA LAFAYETTE by 6
Troy gained legions of new admirers with last Friday’s nationally
televised romp over Oklahoma State. The defending Sun Belt champs
now open conference play against a team they whipped by 14 points
in ’06. The only fl y in the ointment is this troubling stat: road favorites
who won SU as double-digit home dogs the week before are a moneyburning
10-19-1 ATS. That's enough to get us behind the Cajuns.
Fla Atlantic over NORTH TEXAS by 3
Yes, they’re playing Dodge Ball in Denton now as the potent spread
offense masterminded by North Texas coach Todd Dodge is fi nally
taking shape… just in the nick of time if FAU’s rousing win over
Minnesota is indicative of similar improvement by the Owls. Since
the series chalk is 0-3 lately, we’ll back the canine in an almost-certain
dogfi ght (not the Michael Vick variety, of course).
TENNESSEE over Arkansas St by 13
Vols limp back to Knoxville after being savaged in the Swamp and if
you saw the look on Phil Fulmer’s face as he left the fi eld, you don’t
want to (a) be wearing a Tennessee jersey in practice this week or (b)
be wearing an Arkansas State jersey on Saturday. Looking beyond UT’s
outrage and anger, however, we see that the Jonesboro Indians are
not the creampuffs of old. They outstatted Texas in Austin earlier and
bring a 5-1 ATS record as non-conference dogs of 14 or more points
to Knoxville. This is normally a prime letdown spot for the Vols but
after last week’s horrifi c blowout their demeanor may be diffi cult to
evaluate. Slight lean to the dog in this SEC scheduling ‘dead spot.’
Remember, Fulmer is riding a 4-19-1 ATS mark at home against winning
teams this decade, and a 2-14 ATS log as home chalk of late. Yech.
Utah over UNLV by 7
Perfect spot for a Rebel ambush as Utah spent a season’s worth of
emotion in last week’s mind-boggling 44-6 destruction of Ucla. But
UNLV’s 0-8 ATS record against .333 or less opposition doesn’t exactly
inspire us to get out the checkbook. Despite the huge, puzzling win
over the Bruins (and a recent 7-1 ATS series edge), Utah still resembles
a MASH unit and can’t be seriously recommended until they get a
bit healthier.
Oregon over STANFORD by 20
Ducks look like a force to be reckoned with in this year’s PAC 10 race
(one of three teams to rush for 300 or more yards in every game this
season) and they shouldn’t encounter much resistance from rebuilding
Stanford. Oregon is posting over 30 points per game away from
Eugene, which fi ts like a glove with the Cardinal’s woeful 9-31 ATS
ledger when allowing 30 or more at home. The webfoots have cashed
fi ve straight tickets in this series and should waddle away from The
Farm with a lopsided win in tow.
ARIZONA ST over Oregon St by 17
Beavers got blasted in their one journey away from Corvallis and may
encounter a similar fate in the desert. Sun Devil coach Dennis Erickson
(the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2) has fl ipped the
switch in Tempe, driving his team to an impressive 3-0 start. ASU is one
of this year’s teams that improved its defense by at least 100 yards in
2006, a situation that has resulted in a nice 30-7-2 ATS winning edge.
Oregon State rarely covers when losing SU in the PAC 10 (2-17 ATS)
and looks to be in too deep today. Revenge for their worst loss of the
season last year cements it. Sun Devils complete a season-opening
homestand grand slam!
Playbook
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse by 41
Nothing cures losing like a good, old-fashioned bloodletting and no
team more accurately fi ts the victim profi le right now than the hapless
Orange. Louisville will be hopping mad after losing to Kentucky with
just 28 seconds left in the game and should bag its 21st consecutive win
at Papa John’s Stadium today. The high-fl ying Cardinals have won by an
average of 51 points per game during that streak, bad news for a Syracuse
team that’s covered just ONCE in 16 games when allowing more than 42
points. New U of L coach Kragthorpe should quiet the grumbling over
the Kentucky loss (Cards 5-0 ATS after UK) by improving on Louisville’s
11-4 ATS mark as Big East favorites of more than 15 points.
Illinois over INDIANA by 6
When these two get together, it’s usually to decide who’ll be taking
up residence in the BIG 10 basement. But both teams are off to great
starts in ’07, making this conference opener quite an intriguing
matchup. Illinois head coach Zook is winless against the Hoosiers and
will look to break through with a defense that improved by over 100
yards per game in 2006. That unit will have to tighten the chinstraps
to stop an unbeaten Indiana squad churning out 44 points every time
they take the fi eld. We think they can, particularly with IU hiding this
pointspread skeleton in the closet: 0-7 SU & ATS in the series when
playing off a SU win. In a war between two programs on the rise, we’ll
back the vengeful Illini.
5 BEST BET
What was penciled in as an automatic win at the season’s
beginning has now morphed into a grim, must-win situation for
the fl oundering Midshipmen. Saturday’s embarrassing defeat
against Ball State sunk Navy to 0-3 ATS this year, a far cry from
the Middie teams that had compiled a superb 30-14-1 pointspread
record over the previous four seasons. Last week’s Duke win over
Northwestern snapped a 22-game losing streak but the Blue Devils
will be suiting up for the third leg of a four game road trip and
have dropped three straight (both SU & ATS) in this series. Navy
is a crisp 44-11 ATS when winning SU as a favorite, including 22-4
ATS when off a loss. Look for Swabbies to right the ship today.
NAVY over Duke by 24
Baylor over BUFFALO by 3
Baylor, fresh off a tense 7-point win over lowly Texas State, carries the
stigma of a horrendous 5-46 SU record when leaving Waco to face a
lined opponent. But they have compiled a 7-3 ATS mark lately as road
favorites, a fi gure unfortunately negated by Buffalo’s 18-11 spread
record at home off a SU loss. When bears venture into buffalo country,
it’s usually bad news for the bison… but this is football, not Mutual of
Omaha’s ‘Wild Kingdom.’ Even so, we’ll watch from far, far away.
AKRON over Kent State by 3
Golden Flashes off to the better start in ’07 and look to up their mark
to 3-1 SU in a series that has seen the visitor cover seven of the previous
nine meetings. We were a bit surprised to see Kent open as the favorite,
but we’ve learned that it is never wise to second-guess the linesmaker
(Akron was a road favorite in last year’s 22-point loss at Kent). The gold
tarnishes further according to a Game Four Angle that supports teams in
home openers off a loss in which they scored 14 or more points in their
previous game (13-3 ATS since 1980). With that we’ll Zip-it-up.
BOSTON COLL over Army by 27
A BC is on a major offensive roll. QB Matt Ryan is making all the right
decisions while throwing with laser-sharp accuracy and his Eagles have
taken down three consecutive ACC foes to start the season. One note
of caution: teams that open with a trio of victories over conference
opponents (happened only eight times since 1980) are just 2-6 SU in
Game Four when tackling non-league foes. The bottom line here is the
Beantown Boys will be laying too many points for our liking.
COLORADO over Miami Oh by 10
After back-to-back embarrassments against Arizona State and Florida
State, Colorado probably can’t wait for the fi rst MAC team ever to
show up on its doorstep. Miami’s loss of star RB Brandon Murphy
severely hurts the ‘Hawks chances of carrying out their ‘mission team’
role in ’07 and today’s game is their fi rst against a Big 12 opponent
since losing to Iowa State in the 2004 Independence Bowl. With Buffy
a not-so-bankable 4-8 ATS at Boulder before taking on Oklahoma,
these losers are about as appealing as Rosie O’Donnell in a mudwrestling
match. Just say no.
NEBRASKA over Ball St by 18
Dangerous spot for a Nebraska team that could still be wearing the
scars of last week’s brutal beating at the hands of USC. We may joke
about the Gonads but they’ve clearly over achieved so far in ’07,
racking up 72 points in consecutive wins. History tells us that the
Testicular Ones fail as non-conference dogs in this price range (1-5 ATS)
but the Huskers weigh in with an equally disappointing 3-7 ATS record
as favorites in the same role. BSU’s Nate Davis in one of the MAC’s
top signal callers, and with Nebbish carrying our SMART BOX seal of
disapproval, we’ll hang with the Gonads against Big Red today.
BYU over Air Force by 14
Upstart Flyboys have parlayed back-to-back upset wins into a 3-0
start but should fi nd themselves grounded today. The PLAYBOOK
database tells us that unbeaten teams in Game Four off consecutive
SU dog wins are 0-4 ATS when made a dog or favorite of 5 or less
points. Cougars have owned this series playing at Provo (7-2 ATS)
and are currently riding a 7-game home win streak as they head into
this homecoming battle. After suffering a pair of narrow but brutal
defeats, expect BYU to be sky high for a foe they’ve whipped by 19
points per game since 2004.
UCLA over Washington by 3
Both teams tasted defeat for the fi rst time last week but UCLA’s
smackdown at Utah qualifi ed as one of the year’s biggest shockers.
Bruins’ coach Karl Dorrell earns his money at home against fellow
PAC 10 teams, making a 12-4-1 deposit at the pointspread bank. The
little old coach from Pasadena has also seen his team cover seven
of the previous nine get-togethers with their neighbors from the
north. Even so, the SMART BOX says “Huskies Times Two,” a strong
recommendation to ride Ty Willingham’s sled dogs here.
ALABAMA over Georgia by 1
First meeting for these bitter SEC rivals since 2003 and even though
new Tide coach Nick Saban has compiled a sweet 31-16 ATS log when
playing a conference foe off a SU win, current reality tells us that Bama
is just 1-6 ATS as SEC home chalk of 7 or fewer points. The Dawgs
have covered three of the last four in the series and got to rest some
key players last week while Alabama was forced to pull out a 41-38
thriller over Arkansas in the closing seconds. With Georgia on a 5-0-1
ATS run as road pups, the Bulldogs should erase the memory of their
conference-opening loss to South Carolina by rolling back the Tide
in Tuscaloosa today.
Florida over MISSISSIPPI by 24
Today’s Urban legend is all about nails in Ed Orgeron’s coaching coffi n.
Despite a sterling 10-3 ATS record as SEC home dogs, Florida’s 59-point
outburst against Rocky Top points us toward another Ole Miss stat:
10-54 ATS when they lose SU at Oxford! The Gainesville Reptiles don’t
bring along much pointspread support – 1-6 away versus conference
foes and 1-6 as double-digit road favorites – but such numbers won’t
scare us off one of the country’s most dominant programs when
matched against a rapidly-fading Mississippi team. Lay the wood.
3 BEST BET
Even though Northwestern slinks into town after blowing what
would have been just their second 3-0 start in the last 45 seasons
with a humiliating home loss to pitiful Duke, the Cats still enjoy
the support of our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) – and our ever
sagacious square, the SMART BOX. That may not convince those
of you who’ve seen OSU trample the visitors by a 102-17 margin
in the last two meetings but those routs were engineered by Troy
Smith, Ted Ginn, Jr. and a host of others now playing on Sunday.
With NU cashing 14 in a row before facing Michigan, we can’t
trust Ohio State’s present popgun offense laying this many points
to an up-and-coming BIG 10 foe.
OHIO ST over Northwestern by 10
MICHIGAN over Penn St by 1
Wolverines’ win over the team currently masquerading as Notre Dame
snapped their longest losing streak since 1959. But before skipping
past the Irish 38-0, Lloyd Carr’s defense had surrendered 73 points and
1,011 yards in just two games, fi gures that should have Penn State
OC Galen Hall licking his chops. Even so, too many confl icting trends
muddy the water. Michigan has won eight in a row outright against
the Nits and are 7-3 ATS at Ann Arbor when taking on an undefeated
foe in Game Four. And, thanks to last week’s destruction of Charlie’s
Angels, Michigan fi nally has a Hart beat.
Texas Tech over OKLAHOMA ST by 3
Okie State won’t have time to sulk over Friday night’s 23-41 no-show
against Troy… not with the gunslinging offense of the Red Raiders
headed to Stillwater. Tech has overpowered Okie State to cash in 10
of the series’ last 13 games and looks to be hitting on all cylinders.
Cowboys are no slouch in the scoring department, either, and QB
Bobby Reid must lead the way in this important BIG 12 lid-lifter. With
the homeboys now 5-0 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or less points, we’ll
saddle up for a ride with the cowpokes.
Michigan St over NOTRE DAME by 13
Three games into the 2007 season, Notre Dame has failed to score a
single offensive touchdown. None! That’s probably because they are
averaging MINUS 5 yards rushing per game! That’s bad news for the
Irish, especially since Michigan State has put this series in a chokehold
(8-2-1 ATS including 5-0 ATS at South Bend). But MSU will fi nd itself as
a favorite when they’ve taken the points in 15 of the last 17 tussles,
not a solid recommendation for a new coach making his fi rst road trip.
Notre Dame’s outstanding 13-5-1 ATS streak as home dogs means little
in light of the current squad’s ineptitude but Sparty's inability to put
away Pittsburgh last week douses our interest.
C FLORIDA over Memphis by 10
Knights opened their new stadium in style by taking mighty Texas to
the limit in a narrow 32-35 defeat. And if you've played the Longhorns
and fi nd yourself in a lined game at home the following week, you’ve
built a nice 5-1 ATS nest egg lately. UCF’s 21-point demolition of
Memphis in their previous meeting at Orlando plus the Knights’ 6-3
ATS record at home versus conference foes seals the deal.
Ga Tech over VIRGINIA by 6
Tech looked like an absolute wreck against BC (fell behind 21-0 in an
ugly 10-24 loss) and Charlottesville doesn’t look like a hospitable place
to effect repairs, particularly when the hometown Cavs are 8-1 ATS
as ACC home dogs and 12-2 against the number when playing with
conference revenge. That puts us in the middle of a real dilemma as
the trends say to play Virginia but the SMART BOX says to ride the
Ramblin’ Wreck. With the bumblebees looking to make amends for
their poor showing againt BC, we'll side with the Techsters.
HOUSTON over Colorado St by 4
After a pair of gutsy efforts that ended in demoralizing defeats, Sonny
Lubick can’t wait to get his Rams out of Colorado. CSU is 9-2 ATS when
playing a road game with rest and also bring along Lubick’s superb
34-20-1 ATS history as an underdog. Houston’s 24-point pounding of
Tulane last week means nothing as the Cougars were undressed by
Oregon on opening weekend. The Coogs also own a shameful 5-17
ATS record in home openers. Wrap it all up and it looks like we’ll get
ram-bunctious today.
CALIFORNIA over Arizona by 21
Arizona’s Mike Stoops has failed to capitalize off his team’s stunning wins
over Cal and Oregon late last season, and appears to be in serious trouble
after Saturday’s home loss to New Mexico drops the Wildcats to 1-2. The
Desert Cats are an appalling 4-18 ATS as targets for PAC 10 avengers
while the Bears are a golden 21-2 ATS when they win SU with revenge.
Cal’s big win over Tennessee may have been tarnished somewhat by the
Vols' annihilation at Gainesville but there’s no doubting they’re vastly
superior to the under achieving Cats. Bears have the talent to challenge
USC this year and won’t let Arizona get in their way today.
IDAHO over No Illinois by 3
Who scheduled this game? Northern Illinois’ season is rapidly
unraveling (0-3 after home loss to weak Eastern Michigan) and the
Huskies fi nd themselves dead in the sights of a 1-17 SU disaster when
playing a non-MAC foe away from DeKalb. We’d normally give Idaho
zero consideration to cover any game but after Saturday night’s 49-
31 USC win over Nebraska, the Vandals’ season-opening 38-10 loss to
the Trojans looks downright encouraging. The home team does fi eld
17 returning starters and with a recent 4-1 ATS record in lined games
against non-conference teams, we may just have to Go With Da Ho
over the visiting Huskies.
BOWLING GREEN over Temple by 19
Poor Owls were undeniably robbed last week at Connecticut as a gamewinning
TD catch was overturned after offi cial review and they've
now dropped an incredible 22 consecutive road decisions. Temple got
destroyed 42-7 in its offi cial MAC debut against Buffalo but actually
upset the Falcons last year as double-digit dogs. Bowling Green can
boast a lofty 30-13 ATS mark when winning SU in conference games
but they’re also shackled by a 0-7 string of ATS failures when favored
by 10 or more points. Pick your poison.
WEST VIRGINIA over East Carolina by 20
White & Slaton just keep rolling along, piling up points and yardage
en route to West Virginia’s inevitable Big East showdown with Rutgers.
But the Mounties can’t afford to look past a dangerous ECU team
brandishing a 10-1 ATS record as a road dog under Skip, especially with
an even bigger revenge game against South Florida on deck (USF handed
WVU its only home loss last year). The Pirate ship sails into Morgantown
displaying a 5-1 ATS fl ag when playing with non-conference revenge
and Captain Holtz commands a developing star of his own in sensational
QB Patrick Pinkney. The Mountaineer defense has not been dominating,
allowing just over 20 points per game and that could be enough to
allow East Carolina to sneak inside the big number.
Iowa St over TOLEDO by 3
Cyclones can be forgiven if they suffer a massive letdown here after
their thrilling 15-14 conquest of hated Iowa but they rarely seem to
do so, posting a decent 11-6 mark after Hawkeye games (ISU also a
sterling 13-3 SU vs MAC opposition). Toledo remains on the launch
pad after an abortive 0-3 start and the Rockets' once-proud record of
success in the Glass Bowl – 38-5 SU and 26-11 ATS – is fading thanks
to a recent 2-3 SU record in their last fi ve home appearances. The
distraction of an ongoing gambling probe and the presence of an
old Native American disease (Lacka D) combine to make the Rockets
sputter again.
SOUTH FLORIDA over N Carolina by 17
USF fans are praying this game doesn’t come down to a Bulls’ fi eld
goal attempt: Delbert Alvarado missed four of six against Auburn
(one from 21 yards) but got to keep his job after the defense kept
the Tigers out of the end zone in overtime. Touchdowns may be the
order of the day for the Bulls, however, as they rumbled to 417 yards
in last season’s easy 37-20 win over the Tar Heels. Point production is
of paramount importance when considering a play on a Butch Daviscoached
team: he’s 1-19 ATS when scoring fewer than 21 points but
36-11 ATS when he equals or surpasses the magic number. USF has
held 10 of the past 12 Tampa day-trippers to under 21 points and come
in off a week of rest. Carolina’s heels will be pointing skyward after
this running of the Bulls.
WAKE FOREST over Maryland by 1
Okay, the Terrapin ‘D’ did allow 448 yards in a 14-31 loss to West
Virginia but that fi gure represents the Mounties’ lowest offensive
output this season. Terps seem to have Wake’s number, winning and
covering seven of the last eight showdowns. With QB Riley Skinner
still questionable, we feel the Demons will be paying back the devil
for the conference wins they captured en route to last year’s ACC
title. Wake coach Jim Grobe is a money-burning 14-28 ATS as chalk, a
fact that only adds weight to a SMART BOX recommendation to play
Maryland. When The Box speaks, we listen.
Clemson over NC STATE by 3
The Pack’s wobbly 1-2 debut is not what the NC State brass had in
mind when they shelled out the big bucks to steal Tom O’Brien from
Boston College. But State has played hard in both defeats (outyarded
BC) and should be primed and ready for its ACC home opener. Tigers
have cashed in their last three trips to Raleigh but cannot be trusted
as conference road favorites (1-7 ATS). The Pack has scratched out a
6-1 ATS mark as wolves – err, dogs – when playing with conference
revenge and O’Brien is every bit the equal of Clemson coach Tommy
Bowden. Oh, yeah... Clemmie was outgained in their 28-point romp
over Furman last week. That howling sound you’ll here on Saturday
is a Wolfpack cover.
CINCINNATI over Marshall by 24
The Bad News Bearcats are off to their best start since 2003, biting off
47 points per game in a 3-0 start. Cincy hasn’t fared well against CUSA
foes, posting a weak 4-9 ATS effort (1-6 ATS as chalk). However, new
coach Brian Kelly has these guys so fi red up that those negative numbers
may be of no consequence. Marshall has failed both SU & ATS in two
previous trips to Big East sites, losing by 26 and 32 points. The trip across
the Ohio River from Huntington to the Queen City may be a short one
but it’ll sure feel a lot longer on the silent ride back home.
ARKANSAS over Kentucky by 7
Kentucky lost the last meeting between these SEC adversaries, falling
in a 63-70 overtime shootout in 2003. Based on what we saw out of
each team last week, a similar outcome would not surprise. However,
we’re also looking at two squads on polar opposites of the emotional
spectrum. Arkansas fought all the way back from a 31-10 defi cit to
take the lead against Alabama before suffering a last-second loss.
Kentucky won in precisely the same manner, falling behind Louisville
in a seesaw affair before launching a 57-yard scoring strike with just
28 seconds remaining. The Hogs are a horrible 4-10 ATS after tackling
the Tide while Kentucky has covered its last fi ve SEC openers. Trends
call for the Cats. We need more time to ponder.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
Iowa over WISCONSIN by 6
Wisky’s Bret Bielema will make coaching start number 17 against
Iowa while Hawkeyes’ leader Kirk Ferentz comes to town as
one of only 21 Bowl Subdivision coaches who have logged 100
consecutive games with their current affi liation. The Badgers,
however, have better players and take the fi eld carrying the
nation’s longest win streak (12). Wisconsin had dropped four
straight to Iowa before last year’s breakthrough win in Iowa
City so the Hawkeyes will arrive in Madison burning for revenge.
They’ll also be hot after last week’s embarrassing loss to mediocre
Iowa State and they usually respond, posting a 6-1 ATS mark off
a loss the Cyclones (4-0 off a road game). In what should be an
extremely physical contest, we’ll let the SMART BOX direct us to
Black-and-Gold corner.
4 BEST BET
This is like trying to choose between death by hanging or fi ring
squad. Pittsburgh’s Wannstedt is an atrocious 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS
facing off against a greater than .600 opponent, but Uconn is
an equally dreadful 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big East road affairs.
We know the latter will surely improve. Not so sure about the
former, however. Huskies were fl at as a fl apjack against Temple
last Saturday and will have to bring more to the table today for
a win. The Panthers own a solid defensive unit but sorely miss
injured QB Bill Stull (Kevan Smith threw for just 85 yards with two
interceptions versus Michigan State). It’s games like these that send
us in search of the SMART BOX and da box says ‘Connecticut.’
Connecticut over PITTSBURGH by 7
AUBURN over N Mexico St by 13
It fi nally happened: Tommy Tuberville got ‘Croomed’… that’s what
you call it when your team loses outright to Mississippi State (three
coaches who were ‘Croomed’ also got axed at the end of the season).
With Auburn sinking at 1-2, you might automatically assume that
the Tigers would be so pissed that their next opponent would face
possible mutilation. Such reasoning may not work against highscoring
New Mexico State (32 points per game in ’06), especially
when we note that non-conference, double-digit dogs that score
24 or more points are an amazing 404-76-6 ATS (84%!). Tuberville’s
0-8 ATS streak as double-digit chalk inspires as much confi dence as
George Bush’s Iraq policy… NONE. Aubbie hasn’t lost three straight
since 2001 but the pass-happy Aggies have the offensive tools to
spring another upset.
Wyoming over OHIO U by 10
Wyoming in Ohio? Apparently the Cowboys want to see more of the
good old USA (played at Florida, Syracuse and Virginia the last two
years) and decided Athens, OH was worth a look. They’ll congratulate
themselves on their latest geographical choice when they fi nd out the
Pokes are a SMART BOX Double play! Wyoming has played sound
football this season and head coach Joe Glenn has rung the register
against non-conference opponents (13-5 ATS). Saddle up!
TEXAS over Rice by 36
The Owls have imploded in 2007, losing SU to Nicholls State and
getting torched for 101 points in losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. The
visitor has gotten the money in four of the last fi ve games but Texas
can claim a 5-1 ATS mark as double-digit home favorites against a nonleague
opponent with revenge. The Longhorns, however, have looked
less than impressive in previous home games against Arkansas State
and TCU. We don’t want Rice but the huge number has us keeping
our distance from Bevo, too.
USC over Washington St by 25
The Trojans sat idle for two weeks after their perfunctory win over
Idaho, listening to the talk about how LSU should really be the nation’s
top-ranked team, then went into Lincoln last Saturday night and
positively destroyed a good Nebraska squad. Pete Carroll continues
to build on his stellar ATS fi gures: 16-8 versus a PAC 10 foe in the
Coliseum, a number that tightens to 11-4 if the opponent is playing
with revenge. With Carroll winning 50 of his last 54 games SU, the
‘revenge thing’ occurs quite often. The bottom line, though, is that
this score will be whatever the Trojans want it to be – and another
hefty price means we won’t be there.
LSU over S Carolina by 11
The entire country is enamored with LSU right now but before you
head to their window, hear this… Tigers coach Les Miles has not
enjoyed great success in career conference play: he’s just 23-25-1 ATS
in league tilts, a number that dips to 7-17-2 ATS if the foe is off a win.
Spurrier, meanwhile, has fought to a 44-20 ATS mark in conference
roadies, including a recent 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS run. Despite the perceived
superiority of the Tigers, we look for the wily Spurrier to outwit the
lantern-jawed Miles and bring the cash back to Columbia.
UTAH ST over San Jose St by 6
Not only has Spartan coach Dick Tomey been handcuffed by the loss of
QB Adam Trafalis and RB Yonus Davis, he also has to drive the bus out
of San Jose for a fourth straight week! Teams in that situation have not
fared well, going just 2-16 SU & 6-12 ATS. The Aggies stand 2-1 ATS in
’07 thanks largely to the play of 18 returning starters and should make
the most of that edge in today’s homecoming contest.
TCU over Smu by 18
A season of great expectations has quickly turned sour in Forth Worth
and Gary Patterson will have to pull out all the stops to keep his Frogs
from sinking into an abyss of despair. But consecutive second-half
collapses have made for a mighty deep hole. TCU is a sparkling 9-1 ATS
at home off back-to-back road trips but are a mirror-opposite 1-9 ATS
when favored at home off consecutive SU losses. Despite the fact that
the Frogs were upset by +14.5 home dog SMU in their last meeting
(2005) – and the fact that the Mustangs have been stampeded for 125
points in three games – we just can’t pull the trigger until we see how
Patterson’s team responds.
Purdue over MINNESOTA by 17
Joe Tiller has lit a fi re under his Boilermakers: in four games, Purdue
has piled up 149 points, 959 yards passing and 645 rushing. Triggerman
Curtis Painter has delivered for Tiller, completing 69 percent of his
passes for 13 TD’s with zero picks… not what Minnesota’s defense
needs to face after allowing over 500 yards in all three of its games
(perhaps ‘Punky’ Brewster needs to learn a thing or two about
coaching that side of the ball). Boilers have covered seven of eight
in the series and Tiller stands 22-7 ATS when his team wins SU on
the BIG 10 road. This game has the unique smell of B.O. (Blow Out)
written all over it.
ADDED GAMES
KANSAS over Florida Int’l by 28
Even though FIU lost 23-9 to Miami, FL, they acquitted themselves well
against a superior team and avoided a repeat of last year’s ugly brawl
between the two. The 3-0 Jayhawks play the last of four consecutive
home games to open the season, not always a bankable situation:
home favorites of 14 or more points is this role are a weak 7-13 –1
ATS when playing off a SU win. KU also just fi nished chowing on a
big helping of revenge against Toledo and could be peeking ahead
to next week’s blood war with Kansas State. Too many points to lay
with a potentially disinterested favorite.
Troy over LA LAFAYETTE by 6
Troy gained legions of new admirers with last Friday’s nationally
televised romp over Oklahoma State. The defending Sun Belt champs
now open conference play against a team they whipped by 14 points
in ’06. The only fl y in the ointment is this troubling stat: road favorites
who won SU as double-digit home dogs the week before are a moneyburning
10-19-1 ATS. That's enough to get us behind the Cajuns.
Fla Atlantic over NORTH TEXAS by 3
Yes, they’re playing Dodge Ball in Denton now as the potent spread
offense masterminded by North Texas coach Todd Dodge is fi nally
taking shape… just in the nick of time if FAU’s rousing win over
Minnesota is indicative of similar improvement by the Owls. Since
the series chalk is 0-3 lately, we’ll back the canine in an almost-certain
dogfi ght (not the Michael Vick variety, of course).
TENNESSEE over Arkansas St by 13
Vols limp back to Knoxville after being savaged in the Swamp and if
you saw the look on Phil Fulmer’s face as he left the fi eld, you don’t
want to (a) be wearing a Tennessee jersey in practice this week or (b)
be wearing an Arkansas State jersey on Saturday. Looking beyond UT’s
outrage and anger, however, we see that the Jonesboro Indians are
not the creampuffs of old. They outstatted Texas in Austin earlier and
bring a 5-1 ATS record as non-conference dogs of 14 or more points
to Knoxville. This is normally a prime letdown spot for the Vols but
after last week’s horrifi c blowout their demeanor may be diffi cult to
evaluate. Slight lean to the dog in this SEC scheduling ‘dead spot.’
Remember, Fulmer is riding a 4-19-1 ATS mark at home against winning
teams this decade, and a 2-14 ATS log as home chalk of late. Yech.
Utah over UNLV by 7
Perfect spot for a Rebel ambush as Utah spent a season’s worth of
emotion in last week’s mind-boggling 44-6 destruction of Ucla. But
UNLV’s 0-8 ATS record against .333 or less opposition doesn’t exactly
inspire us to get out the checkbook. Despite the huge, puzzling win
over the Bruins (and a recent 7-1 ATS series edge), Utah still resembles
a MASH unit and can’t be seriously recommended until they get a
bit healthier.
Oregon over STANFORD by 20
Ducks look like a force to be reckoned with in this year’s PAC 10 race
(one of three teams to rush for 300 or more yards in every game this
season) and they shouldn’t encounter much resistance from rebuilding
Stanford. Oregon is posting over 30 points per game away from
Eugene, which fi ts like a glove with the Cardinal’s woeful 9-31 ATS
ledger when allowing 30 or more at home. The webfoots have cashed
fi ve straight tickets in this series and should waddle away from The
Farm with a lopsided win in tow.
ARIZONA ST over Oregon St by 17
Beavers got blasted in their one journey away from Corvallis and may
encounter a similar fate in the desert. Sun Devil coach Dennis Erickson
(the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2) has fl ipped the
switch in Tempe, driving his team to an impressive 3-0 start. ASU is one
of this year’s teams that improved its defense by at least 100 yards in
2006, a situation that has resulted in a nice 30-7-2 ATS winning edge.
Oregon State rarely covers when losing SU in the PAC 10 (2-17 ATS)
and looks to be in too deep today. Revenge for their worst loss of the
season last year cements it. Sun Devils complete a season-opening
homestand grand slam!
Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CINCINNATI over Marshall RATING: 1 48-14
BYU over Air Force RATING: 1 47-22
OHIO STATE over Northwestern RATING: 2 41-10
NAVY over Duke RATING: 3 38-14
GEORGIA over Alabama RATING: 4 27-24
PITTSBURGH over UConn RATING: 4 27-13
WISCONSIN over Iowa RATING: 5 31-10
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse RATING: 5 67-13
Red Sheet
89 NAVY 38-14 ov Duke
89 NEB 48-14 ov Ball St
88 BYU 45-20 ov AF
88 Ore 47-13 ov STAN
88 KAN 59-10 ov Fla Int
87 Cinn
87 LSU
87 TCU
Power Sweep
4* Florida Atlantic over North Texas
3* Purdue over Minnesota
3* BYU over Air Force
2* Arizona State over Oregon State
2* Notre Dame (+) over Michigan State
2* New Mexico State (+) over Auburn
Power Sweep Dog of the Week
<!-- / message -->Toledo over Iowa St 34-20
Winning Points
BEST BET
Nebraska over Ball State by 42
Boston College over Army by 10
PREFERRED
Colorado over Miami Ohio by 23
Preferred Michigan State over Notre Dame by 16
Preferred BYU over Air FOrce by 24
West Virginia over East Carolina by 16
Power Plays 4*'s
4* Illinois
4* Purdue
4* Virginia Tech
4* Iowa
4* Kansas
4* Oregon
4* Alabama
4* UTEP
4* BYU
4* FSU
4* Arizona State
GoldSheet Nationwide
SUPER 7
INDIANA
TOP
CONN
REGULAR
OREGON
SC UNDER
IOWA UNDER
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CINCINNATI over Marshall RATING: 1 48-14
BYU over Air Force RATING: 1 47-22
OHIO STATE over Northwestern RATING: 2 41-10
NAVY over Duke RATING: 3 38-14
GEORGIA over Alabama RATING: 4 27-24
PITTSBURGH over UConn RATING: 4 27-13
WISCONSIN over Iowa RATING: 5 31-10
LOUISVILLE over Syracuse RATING: 5 67-13
Red Sheet
89 NAVY 38-14 ov Duke
89 NEB 48-14 ov Ball St
88 BYU 45-20 ov AF
88 Ore 47-13 ov STAN
88 KAN 59-10 ov Fla Int
87 Cinn
87 LSU
87 TCU
Power Sweep
4* Florida Atlantic over North Texas
3* Purdue over Minnesota
3* BYU over Air Force
2* Arizona State over Oregon State
2* Notre Dame (+) over Michigan State
2* New Mexico State (+) over Auburn
Power Sweep Dog of the Week
<!-- / message -->Toledo over Iowa St 34-20
Winning Points
BEST BET
Nebraska over Ball State by 42
Boston College over Army by 10
PREFERRED
Colorado over Miami Ohio by 23
Preferred Michigan State over Notre Dame by 16
Preferred BYU over Air FOrce by 24
West Virginia over East Carolina by 16
Power Plays 4*'s
4* Illinois
4* Purdue
4* Virginia Tech
4* Iowa
4* Kansas
4* Oregon
4* Alabama
4* UTEP
4* BYU
4* FSU
4* Arizona State
GoldSheet Nationwide
SUPER 7
INDIANA
TOP
CONN
REGULAR
OREGON
SC UNDER
IOWA UNDER
Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #313 Kent State (-2) over Akron (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 22)
Believe me, I’m real hesitant to lay the points in a rivalry game like this. But just like with Penn State there’s no doubt who the better all-around team is here. The Flashes have most of the primaries back from the team that slapped the Zips by 22 last year and Kent State is 3-1 ATS in its last four at Akron. The Zips couldn’t handle the dual threat of Indiana’s Kellen Lewis last weekend, so I think they’ll have similar problems with Julian Edelman. In three games this year Akron isn’t running (256 yards for) nor stopping the run (592 against). I think that Kent State will control the line of scrimmage and control this game from jump, meaning the Wagon Wheel Trophy will reside in Kent for another year.
3-Unit Play. Take #315 Army (+27.5) over Boston College (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
You have to wonder when the emotional bubble will burst for the Eagles. They opened up with a big win over last year’s ACC champion, followed it up with a big win over their former coach, and followed that up with a big win on the road over their chief competition for the league title. Whew. Could be a letdown spot here against a team that has played great defense up to this point. Army is 3-1 ATS at B.C. over the past several years.
3-Unit Play. Take #331 Penn State (-3, +100) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Note: I suggest waiting on this line. I believe it will drop to -2.5 before kickoff.
Right now there’s no doubt in my mind that the Lions are the better team. They have a stronger defense – one of the best in the nation – and they have the better quarterback. Michigan could get away with playing a freshman quarterback against the pathetic Irish last week, but since PSU should be able to contain Mike Hart I don’t see a greenhorn signal-caller leading the Wolverines to a victory. And even if Chad Henne does play, it’s questionable how effective he’ll be.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 73.5 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Old handicapper trick: when everyone expects one thing – bet the opposite. Everyone is expecting an Arena League-type shootout with two exceptional offenses and poor defenses. Well, we’re going to assume that the oddsmakers tabbed this total a bit high. These teams have stayed ‘under’ in three straight meetings, with the average number of points scored in those games at just 47 points. The average number of points scored in Tech games this year is 72 – but that’s against UTEP, Rice and SMU – while the average in OSU’s games is just 53 points. Further, the 10-year average between these two schools is just 58.4 points per meeting with 73 or more points scored just twice.
3-Unit Play. Take #341 Colorado State (+6.5) over Houston (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Houston still has some instability at the quarterback position and Colorado State is 13-3 following a bye week under Sonny Lubick. The Rams have been a pretty live dog, covering in 59.8 percent of all games as an underdog since 2000 and cashing 60.8 percent of all games as a road dog since 2000. Colorado State can score with the Cougars, and I think their veteran secondary is better equipped to get a stop. I think CSU wins this one outright.
3-Unit Play. Take #352 Toledo (+3.5) over Iowa State (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
This is a perfect Letdown-Look Ahead Game for the Cyclones. They’re riding high after their upset win over Iowa last week and have a primetime matchup with Nebraska next week, so I see them looking past a wounded Toledo squad. Toledo is 5-0 ATS as a home dog over the past seven years and are 38-5 SU at the Glass Bowl. Toledo is 20-2 at home after two straight road games and Iowa State is 1-7 ATS on the road after a SU win as a dog.
3-Unit Play. Take #387 Oregon State (+12) over Arizona State (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Teams in their fourth straight home game after winning and being favored in the first three games are just 6-17 ATS. Oregon State brought back 16 starters from a team that beat the Sun Devils 44-10 last year, so I believe that this line is about five points heavy. Arizona State has played well, but their schedule hasn’t impressed me. They have a Sagarin Ranking of just 131 and their opponents are 1-7. I just don’t see where there is enough separation between these teams to warrant a double-digit spread.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #308 Indiana (+3) over Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 22)
These are two teams that are separated by a razor-thin margin. However, I think that Indiana is not only charmed, but they’re playing sound football on both sides. They are running the ball efficiently, as is the Illini, but the difference is that the Hoosiers can move the ball through the air if forced too. Illinois is 1-15 in its last 16 conference road games and the home team has won four of five in this series. Also, the Ron Zook Factor will come into play and mean an upset by IU.
2-Unit Play. Take #373 South Carolina (+16.5) over LSU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
I think that Steve Spurrier is a good enough coach to keep this one within three touchdowns. I didn’t really like that LSU benched Matt Flynn last week. I know it was important to get Ryan Perrilloux some work, but they’re just opening up the door for controversy. I think Flynn gets off to a slow start and USC , which is 8-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall lately, will get some confidence.
2-Unit Play. Take #325 Georgia (+3.5) over Alabama (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
Mark Richt is one of the best coaches in the country and is 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog over the past six years (6-2 as a road dog). The Bulldogs don’t play well in Tuscaloosa, but they’ve won the last two in the series and they have all the value. Alabama is in a prime letdown spot and you can bet that Richt will have his team ready to play. West Carolina played both clubs and its coaching staff said that UGA was the better team.
2-Unit Play. Take First Half: ‘Under’ 31 Florida at Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 59.5 Florida at Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
This game has an early start (11:30 a.m. local) and I get the sense that the atmosphere will be a little different than last week’s blowout win over Tennessee. Florida coaches have said that they plan on waking up the team at 6 a.m., and then they’ll be taking a 60-minute bus ride to Oxford. I’m looking for a slow, uninspired start out of the Gators, who are 3-7 against the total after a win by 20 or more points. The ‘under’ is 21-9 in Ole Miss’ last 30 as a dog and 4-1 in their last five SEC games.
1-Unit Play. Take #324 UCLA (-6) over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
The Bruins have won eight of ten in this series, but have revenge on their side after a brutal 29-19 loss last year in which they led 16-0. The Bruins are 7-2 ATS in this series, 9-1 in Pac-10 home openers, including four straight wins by an average of 21 points. The Bruins have the No. 14 rush defense in the country and that will force Jake Locker to make plays through the air. I think the Bruins - no matter who is QB'ing - are in crisis mode after the blowout loss at Utah, but I think they're the better team and that they'll prove it against the Huskies.
3-Unit Play. Take #313 Kent State (-2) over Akron (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 22)
Believe me, I’m real hesitant to lay the points in a rivalry game like this. But just like with Penn State there’s no doubt who the better all-around team is here. The Flashes have most of the primaries back from the team that slapped the Zips by 22 last year and Kent State is 3-1 ATS in its last four at Akron. The Zips couldn’t handle the dual threat of Indiana’s Kellen Lewis last weekend, so I think they’ll have similar problems with Julian Edelman. In three games this year Akron isn’t running (256 yards for) nor stopping the run (592 against). I think that Kent State will control the line of scrimmage and control this game from jump, meaning the Wagon Wheel Trophy will reside in Kent for another year.
3-Unit Play. Take #315 Army (+27.5) over Boston College (1 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
You have to wonder when the emotional bubble will burst for the Eagles. They opened up with a big win over last year’s ACC champion, followed it up with a big win over their former coach, and followed that up with a big win on the road over their chief competition for the league title. Whew. Could be a letdown spot here against a team that has played great defense up to this point. Army is 3-1 ATS at B.C. over the past several years.
3-Unit Play. Take #331 Penn State (-3, +100) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Note: I suggest waiting on this line. I believe it will drop to -2.5 before kickoff.
Right now there’s no doubt in my mind that the Lions are the better team. They have a stronger defense – one of the best in the nation – and they have the better quarterback. Michigan could get away with playing a freshman quarterback against the pathetic Irish last week, but since PSU should be able to contain Mike Hart I don’t see a greenhorn signal-caller leading the Wolverines to a victory. And even if Chad Henne does play, it’s questionable how effective he’ll be.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 73.5 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Old handicapper trick: when everyone expects one thing – bet the opposite. Everyone is expecting an Arena League-type shootout with two exceptional offenses and poor defenses. Well, we’re going to assume that the oddsmakers tabbed this total a bit high. These teams have stayed ‘under’ in three straight meetings, with the average number of points scored in those games at just 47 points. The average number of points scored in Tech games this year is 72 – but that’s against UTEP, Rice and SMU – while the average in OSU’s games is just 53 points. Further, the 10-year average between these two schools is just 58.4 points per meeting with 73 or more points scored just twice.
3-Unit Play. Take #341 Colorado State (+6.5) over Houston (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Houston still has some instability at the quarterback position and Colorado State is 13-3 following a bye week under Sonny Lubick. The Rams have been a pretty live dog, covering in 59.8 percent of all games as an underdog since 2000 and cashing 60.8 percent of all games as a road dog since 2000. Colorado State can score with the Cougars, and I think their veteran secondary is better equipped to get a stop. I think CSU wins this one outright.
3-Unit Play. Take #352 Toledo (+3.5) over Iowa State (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
This is a perfect Letdown-Look Ahead Game for the Cyclones. They’re riding high after their upset win over Iowa last week and have a primetime matchup with Nebraska next week, so I see them looking past a wounded Toledo squad. Toledo is 5-0 ATS as a home dog over the past seven years and are 38-5 SU at the Glass Bowl. Toledo is 20-2 at home after two straight road games and Iowa State is 1-7 ATS on the road after a SU win as a dog.
3-Unit Play. Take #387 Oregon State (+12) over Arizona State (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22).
Teams in their fourth straight home game after winning and being favored in the first three games are just 6-17 ATS. Oregon State brought back 16 starters from a team that beat the Sun Devils 44-10 last year, so I believe that this line is about five points heavy. Arizona State has played well, but their schedule hasn’t impressed me. They have a Sagarin Ranking of just 131 and their opponents are 1-7. I just don’t see where there is enough separation between these teams to warrant a double-digit spread.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #308 Indiana (+3) over Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 22)
These are two teams that are separated by a razor-thin margin. However, I think that Indiana is not only charmed, but they’re playing sound football on both sides. They are running the ball efficiently, as is the Illini, but the difference is that the Hoosiers can move the ball through the air if forced too. Illinois is 1-15 in its last 16 conference road games and the home team has won four of five in this series. Also, the Ron Zook Factor will come into play and mean an upset by IU.
2-Unit Play. Take #373 South Carolina (+16.5) over LSU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
I think that Steve Spurrier is a good enough coach to keep this one within three touchdowns. I didn’t really like that LSU benched Matt Flynn last week. I know it was important to get Ryan Perrilloux some work, but they’re just opening up the door for controversy. I think Flynn gets off to a slow start and USC , which is 8-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall lately, will get some confidence.
2-Unit Play. Take #325 Georgia (+3.5) over Alabama (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
Mark Richt is one of the best coaches in the country and is 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog over the past six years (6-2 as a road dog). The Bulldogs don’t play well in Tuscaloosa, but they’ve won the last two in the series and they have all the value. Alabama is in a prime letdown spot and you can bet that Richt will have his team ready to play. West Carolina played both clubs and its coaching staff said that UGA was the better team.
2-Unit Play. Take First Half: ‘Under’ 31 Florida at Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 59.5 Florida at Mississippi (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
This game has an early start (11:30 a.m. local) and I get the sense that the atmosphere will be a little different than last week’s blowout win over Tennessee. Florida coaches have said that they plan on waking up the team at 6 a.m., and then they’ll be taking a 60-minute bus ride to Oxford. I’m looking for a slow, uninspired start out of the Gators, who are 3-7 against the total after a win by 20 or more points. The ‘under’ is 21-9 in Ole Miss’ last 30 as a dog and 4-1 in their last five SEC games.
1-Unit Play. Take #324 UCLA (-6) over Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
The Bruins have won eight of ten in this series, but have revenge on their side after a brutal 29-19 loss last year in which they led 16-0. The Bruins are 7-2 ATS in this series, 9-1 in Pac-10 home openers, including four straight wins by an average of 21 points. The Bruins have the No. 14 rush defense in the country and that will force Jake Locker to make plays through the air. I think the Bruins - no matter who is QB'ing - are in crisis mode after the blowout loss at Utah, but I think they're the better team and that they'll prove it against the Huskies.
Doc Sports
5 Unit Play. #11 Take Purdue -13 ½ over Minnesota (Saturday 9:00 pm ESPN 2) Two weeks ago, I was ready to mortgage the house on this one. Expected the Boilers to come in here as a touchdown favorite, but last week’s loss to Florida Atlantic, exposed how bad this Gopher team actually is. Minnesota has given up more then 400 passing yards in each of their first three games. Can you imagine what QB Painter & Co. will produce with that high octane passing attack? Purdue has owned this series winning seven of the last eight games between the programs. True, we are dealing with an inflated line; however, the odds makers still have not corrected how bad the Gophers actually are.
Minnesota has been producing some offense of their own; however, this will be the best defense they have faced in 2007. Purdue has nine starters back and they are strong and fast. This is a must win game for Purdue, as their next four opponents are Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, & Iowa. The dome and weather will not be a factor, as the Boilers pass right through Minnesota. Purdue 48, Minnesota 20.
4 Unit Play. #20 Take Ohio State -22 ½ over Northwestern (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Went against these Buckeyes last week and had it shoved up you know what! I felt this Buckeye outfit would take some time to develop chemistry on offense, but that is not the case. QB Boeckman looked very impressive and they once again have a balanced attack. They went 263 on the ground and 218 through the air last week @ Washington. Since 1964 the Buckeyes are 31-2 in this series and have won every game in Columbus by over 18 points.
This is the first road game for the Cats, as they have had three straight games @ Ryan Field against Northeastern, Nevada, and Duke. Defense has been a real concern and will be a major factor in Columbus. Last week they lost to Duke, thus ending the Blue Devils 22-game losing streak and that is not what you want to have happen going into the Horseshoe. Would take a larger unit value in this one; however, line is steep and fear a little letdown after a big victory in Seattle, but still not enough. Ohio State 48, Northwestern 10.
4 Unit Play. #24 Take Army +27 ½ over Boston College (Saturday 1:00 pm ESPN Classic) One of the big factor’s in successful handicapping is a big letdown, or a major meltdown. The spot is perfect here for that to occur for Boston College. The Eagles are 3-0, but have had three tough games in Wake Forest, NC State, and Georgia Tech. All three are conference games and high emotion was involved in each of them. A flat spot playing Army if you have ever seen one.
As for Army, still not a power and probably never will be again; however, the defense has been outstanding, led by nine seniors. The Demon Deacons toke the Cadets lightly last Saturday and were out gained by them and won just 21-10. Army will come to play and they always play hard for 60 minutes, making this number look very attractive. The Eagles suffer a letdown and a scare. Boston College 28, Army 10.
4 Unit Play. #40 Take Colorado -14 over Miami (OH) (Saturday 3:30 pm) Another visitor stepping into a tough spot. The Red Hawks will have their third road game out of four total games in 2007. They were pounded last week by rival Cincinnati, 47-10 and suffered injuries and now must go into the high altitude of Boulder, CO. Colorado is no superpower, but has played a brutal schedule in Arizona State and Florida State. They are stepping down in class and the Buffs should give the home folks something to cheer about. The Red Hawks get shot down. Colorado 41, Miami 10.
5 Unit Play. #60 Take Buffalo +3 ½ over Baylor (Saturday 6:00 pm) Maybe the real sleeper of this week’s college card. First home game for the Bulls after playing Rutgers and Penn State in hostile environments. Buffalo did defeat Temple despite being an underdog in Philadelphia. Former Husker QB Turner Gill is the head coach and he certainly has the program going in the right direction with nine starters back on both sides of the ball. The Bulls record may not display this, but they could be one of the most improved teams in the country.
Baylor won only four games in 2006 and no question they are in a rebuilding phase. They struggled last week to put away Texas State and now must make a long flight from Waco to Buffalo. The Bears fail to take the Bulls by the Horns, call the upset. Buffalo 35, Baylor 20.
4 Unit Play. #83 Take South Carolina +16 ½ over LSU (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) A lot of folks think this L.S.U team is No. 1 in the country; although, I certainly cannot give any argument against that statement after the Tigers big win over Virginia Tech on Sept. 8th. But one must remember, Virginia Tech was coming off an emotional home opener. Gamecocks have not fared well in Baton Rouge, as they are 1-9 in their last 10 games, but the difference is that Coach Spurrier was not there for those ten games. Spurrier loves the role of an underdog, in fact since he has been coaching he is 5-0 as a double-digit dog against any team that is undefeated. You can be sure he will have them ready. This Gamecock team is talented and already has a victory on the road in Athens, GA. These two programs have not played each other since 2004 and Spurrier will prove why he is one of the best coaches in the country and will give very little Tiger bait. LSU 28, USC 21.
4 Unit Play. #87 Take Iowa +8 over Wisconsin and Under 44 ½ in Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday 8:00 pm ABC Regional) We are taking 4-units on Iowa and 4-units on the under in this game. I maybe stepping on a limb here, but the Badgers are the most overrated team in the country since they are currently ranked in the top-10. With the Citadel having success last week, this proves that this Badger team can be scored upon. The Badgers play Iowa, followed by Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State. What my point? They will lose at least two of these four games.
Traditionally these two clubs play tight conservative games. Hawkeyes may have an edge of defense, with Bucky taking the reigns on offense. With this in mind, taking the point is the only side to consider in a very physical match-up. Would boast the units, but must respect O.C. Chryst and his play calling ability. In a battle royale, the Badgers keep the Heartland Trophy, but if we cash both, keep an eye on the Michigan State game next week. Low and sweet, Wisconsin 20, Iowa 17.
5 Unit Play. #11 Take Purdue -13 ½ over Minnesota (Saturday 9:00 pm ESPN 2) Two weeks ago, I was ready to mortgage the house on this one. Expected the Boilers to come in here as a touchdown favorite, but last week’s loss to Florida Atlantic, exposed how bad this Gopher team actually is. Minnesota has given up more then 400 passing yards in each of their first three games. Can you imagine what QB Painter & Co. will produce with that high octane passing attack? Purdue has owned this series winning seven of the last eight games between the programs. True, we are dealing with an inflated line; however, the odds makers still have not corrected how bad the Gophers actually are.
Minnesota has been producing some offense of their own; however, this will be the best defense they have faced in 2007. Purdue has nine starters back and they are strong and fast. This is a must win game for Purdue, as their next four opponents are Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, & Iowa. The dome and weather will not be a factor, as the Boilers pass right through Minnesota. Purdue 48, Minnesota 20.
4 Unit Play. #20 Take Ohio State -22 ½ over Northwestern (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Went against these Buckeyes last week and had it shoved up you know what! I felt this Buckeye outfit would take some time to develop chemistry on offense, but that is not the case. QB Boeckman looked very impressive and they once again have a balanced attack. They went 263 on the ground and 218 through the air last week @ Washington. Since 1964 the Buckeyes are 31-2 in this series and have won every game in Columbus by over 18 points.
This is the first road game for the Cats, as they have had three straight games @ Ryan Field against Northeastern, Nevada, and Duke. Defense has been a real concern and will be a major factor in Columbus. Last week they lost to Duke, thus ending the Blue Devils 22-game losing streak and that is not what you want to have happen going into the Horseshoe. Would take a larger unit value in this one; however, line is steep and fear a little letdown after a big victory in Seattle, but still not enough. Ohio State 48, Northwestern 10.
4 Unit Play. #24 Take Army +27 ½ over Boston College (Saturday 1:00 pm ESPN Classic) One of the big factor’s in successful handicapping is a big letdown, or a major meltdown. The spot is perfect here for that to occur for Boston College. The Eagles are 3-0, but have had three tough games in Wake Forest, NC State, and Georgia Tech. All three are conference games and high emotion was involved in each of them. A flat spot playing Army if you have ever seen one.
As for Army, still not a power and probably never will be again; however, the defense has been outstanding, led by nine seniors. The Demon Deacons toke the Cadets lightly last Saturday and were out gained by them and won just 21-10. Army will come to play and they always play hard for 60 minutes, making this number look very attractive. The Eagles suffer a letdown and a scare. Boston College 28, Army 10.
4 Unit Play. #40 Take Colorado -14 over Miami (OH) (Saturday 3:30 pm) Another visitor stepping into a tough spot. The Red Hawks will have their third road game out of four total games in 2007. They were pounded last week by rival Cincinnati, 47-10 and suffered injuries and now must go into the high altitude of Boulder, CO. Colorado is no superpower, but has played a brutal schedule in Arizona State and Florida State. They are stepping down in class and the Buffs should give the home folks something to cheer about. The Red Hawks get shot down. Colorado 41, Miami 10.
5 Unit Play. #60 Take Buffalo +3 ½ over Baylor (Saturday 6:00 pm) Maybe the real sleeper of this week’s college card. First home game for the Bulls after playing Rutgers and Penn State in hostile environments. Buffalo did defeat Temple despite being an underdog in Philadelphia. Former Husker QB Turner Gill is the head coach and he certainly has the program going in the right direction with nine starters back on both sides of the ball. The Bulls record may not display this, but they could be one of the most improved teams in the country.
Baylor won only four games in 2006 and no question they are in a rebuilding phase. They struggled last week to put away Texas State and now must make a long flight from Waco to Buffalo. The Bears fail to take the Bulls by the Horns, call the upset. Buffalo 35, Baylor 20.
4 Unit Play. #83 Take South Carolina +16 ½ over LSU (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) A lot of folks think this L.S.U team is No. 1 in the country; although, I certainly cannot give any argument against that statement after the Tigers big win over Virginia Tech on Sept. 8th. But one must remember, Virginia Tech was coming off an emotional home opener. Gamecocks have not fared well in Baton Rouge, as they are 1-9 in their last 10 games, but the difference is that Coach Spurrier was not there for those ten games. Spurrier loves the role of an underdog, in fact since he has been coaching he is 5-0 as a double-digit dog against any team that is undefeated. You can be sure he will have them ready. This Gamecock team is talented and already has a victory on the road in Athens, GA. These two programs have not played each other since 2004 and Spurrier will prove why he is one of the best coaches in the country and will give very little Tiger bait. LSU 28, USC 21.
4 Unit Play. #87 Take Iowa +8 over Wisconsin and Under 44 ½ in Iowa @ Wisconsin (Saturday 8:00 pm ABC Regional) We are taking 4-units on Iowa and 4-units on the under in this game. I maybe stepping on a limb here, but the Badgers are the most overrated team in the country since they are currently ranked in the top-10. With the Citadel having success last week, this proves that this Badger team can be scored upon. The Badgers play Iowa, followed by Michigan State, Illinois, and Penn State. What my point? They will lose at least two of these four games.
Traditionally these two clubs play tight conservative games. Hawkeyes may have an edge of defense, with Bucky taking the reigns on offense. With this in mind, taking the point is the only side to consider in a very physical match-up. Would boast the units, but must respect O.C. Chryst and his play calling ability. In a battle royale, the Badgers keep the Heartland Trophy, but if we cash both, keep an eye on the Michigan State game next week. Low and sweet, Wisconsin 20, Iowa 17.
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
***LSU (-16.5) 35 South Carolina 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
LSU has been unbelievably good on defense through their first 3 games, allowing only 129 yards per game at 2.3 yards per play with no team gaining more than 149 yards or averaging higher than 2.6 yppl. South Carolina will be the best offensive team that the Tigers have faced, but the Gamecocks haven’t shown the explosive pass attack that was evident last season, as perhaps the loss of 2nd round NFL draft pick Sidney Rice has hurt more than expected. Quarterback Blake Mitchell was great at the end of last season and averaged 8.3 yards per pass play for the season but Mitchell has averaged only 5.2 yppp in two games this season (he was suspended for the opener), including only 4.9 yppp against a solid Georgia defense. Being shut down by Georgia does not bode well for Mitchell today against an even better LSU defense and the Gamecocks’ good rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play) doesn’t figure to produce even mediocre numbers against a Tigers’ defensive front that’s allowed just 2.7 yprp against 3 decent running teams. South Carolina should have better success offensively than the other 3 teams that have faced LSU, but I still don’t expect them to score more than 10 points. South Carolina has played pretty well defensively thanks to a very good secondary, but the Gamecocks have suffered some attrition along the defensive line and are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. LSU may be slowed down through the air, but the Tigers may not need to throw given that they have averaged 246 yards at 6.1 yprp and should dominate South Carolina’s defensive line. In addition to the favorable fundamentals the Tigers apply to a 46-8 ATS subset of a 117-58-4 ATS home momentum situation as well as a 58-19-1 ATS momentum situation. South Carolina is 9-1 ATS on the road under coach Steve Spurrier, but that’s the only thing keeping this from being a 4-Star Best Bet. I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -19 points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona 29 CALIFORNIA (-15.5) 34
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
As much as I love my Bears they appear overrated to me. Cal has a great offense that can beat you by land (7.4 yards per rushing play) and by air (Longshore has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in his career against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Bears have been just mediocre defensively this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Arizona is capable of slowing down the Cal attack. The Wildcats were 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively last season and they’re 0.5 yppl better than average this season. Arizona’s offense was the problem last season, as talented quarterback Willie Tuitama was sacked too many times and had problems with concussions that kept him out of the lineup often. Coach Mike Stoops brought in Sonny Dykes to install the Texas Tech spread passing offense, which is based on 3 step drops and quick release times, which will keep Tuitama upright more this season (just 3 sacks on 136 pass plays this season) and allow him to use his considerable skills. The results have been pretty good so far (6.1 yards per play when Tuitama is in the game, against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) and Arizona should move the ball well against the Bears. Cal’s star WR DeSean Jackson has a badly sprained thumb that has caused him to drop some balls and the Bears have 3 key defensive players all listed as questionable this week. There is good depth on Cal’s defense, but Jackson’s problems have hurt the pass attack and Longshore has averaged just 6.5 yppp in the first 3 games while overthrowing a lot of receivers. I used Longshore’s career stats (which are much better) in my model and my ratings favor Cal by only 11 ½ points and my preseason ratings would have favored the Bears by only 10 points. There is some line value favoring Arizona because of last week’s upset loss to New Mexico, but that was a bit of a fluke given that the Wildcats out-gained New Mexico 6.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. The loss also sets up the Wildcats in a very strong 43-11 ATS subset of an 80- 38 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I know Cal has revenge for losing in Tucson last season, but that situation is 17-2 ATS if the opposing team has revenge and Cal is just 6-6 ATS in conference revenge games under Jeff Tedford. Besides, big underdogs usually play better if they won the previous year’s match-up since they come into the game with confidence. The Bears are now just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11 points or more while Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 7 points or more. I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and I’ll make the Wildcats a 4-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (2-Stars from +12 to +13 ½).
2 Star Selection
**NAVY (-11.5) 41 Duke 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Duke broke their 22 game losing streak last week, but that will only serve to put the Midshipmen on alert this week, just in case last week’s loss to Ball State wasn’t enough to have them motivated. Navy is 9-4-1 ATS in games after a loss since coach Paul Johnson’s second season (2003), including 7-1 ATS against losing teams, so the Middies have a habit of taking out their frustrations on bad teams. Navy is actually 20-5 ATS in all games against losing teams the last few years while Duke is just 1-5 ATS after a victory and only 4-13 ATS under coach Roof when not an underdog of more than 14 points, including 0-9 ATS in non-conference games. Duke also applies to a negative 17-41 ATS game 4 situation that plays against teams coming off their first win of the season. Navy’s option attack has averaged 438 yards at 6.5 yards per play and that unit should have no trouble running against a Duke defense that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team). Navy’s defense has been a trouble spot with just 2 of last year’s starters currently playing, but Duke’s porous attack (just 3.9 yards per play) is not likely to take full advantage of a Middies’ defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl so far this season. Duke will score some points, but Navy is likely to score almost every time that they get the ball and my ratings favor the Midshipmen by 17 ½ points while using this year’s games only would result in Navy by 20 ½ points. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
Strong Opinion
North Carolina 21 S. FLORIDA (-13.5) 29
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
North Carolina has had two tough luck losses in a row, losing on a last minute field goal at East Carolina two weeks ago and then losing 20-22 at home to Virginia last week thank to a -3 in turnover margin. North Carolina out-gained East Carolina 6.8 yards per play to 6.4 yppl and they dominated Virginia 6.5 yppl to 4.7 yppl, but being on the losing end of both of those games has the Tarheels underrated. South Florida is a very strong defensive team again this season, but UNC quarterback T.J. Yates has averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 9.5 yards per pass play in his first 3 games. South Florida’s offense has struggled a bit in their first two games (4.7 yppl), but they were a good unit last season and return nearly intact so I expect the Bulls’ attack to move the ball pretty well against a sub-par Tarheels’ defense. Overall my ratings only favor South Florida by 8 points and I expect the Tarheels to keep this game competitive. I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Miami Ohio 19 COLORADO (-14.0) 28
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Miami-Ohio let me down last week, but it’s tough to stay close when you’re -4 in turnover margin and losing by 37 points at home to Cincinnati has created some line value this week. Miami-Ohio really isn’t that bad of a team, as the Redhawks have averaged 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that rate about average as a group. Miami upset Ball State on the road and then nearly upset Minnesota before losing in overtime, so staying close to a sub-par Colorado contingent isn’t too much to ask. The Buffaloes are still having troubles offensively and they’ve been out-gained this season 4.1 yppl to 4.7 yppl by teams that would out-gain an average team by 0.3 yppl – so Colorado has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is about the same as Miami-Ohio. Miami has lost their top two running backs and an offensive linemen, so their rushing attack isn’t likely to be as good as it has been, but my ratings favor Colorado by only 9 ½ points after adjusting for those losses. I’ll consider Miami- Ohio a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets up to +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON (-6.5) 37 Colorado St. 25
01:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Houston has one of the nation’s most explosive weapons in running back Anthony Alridge, who ran for 959 yards at 10.1 ypr last season and has accounted for 429 total yards from scrimmage in just 2 games this season (7.3 ypr and 27.4 ypc on 5 catches). Colorado State has allowed 7.3 yards per rushing play in their two games, so Alridge should have another big game today. Colorado State likes to pound the ball with bowling ball Kyle Bell, but Bell has only averaged 3.6 ypr on his 66 carries this season. The Rams are much more effective when quarterback Caleb Hanie is throwing the football and he’s averaged an impressive 7.4 yards per pass play on 72% completions so far this season. Houston has defended the pass well so far and their overall defensive average of 5.8 yards per play allowed is good considering that one of their two opponents (Oregon) has the best offense in the nation. My ratings favor Houston by 7 ½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Cougars by 9 points. Colorado State applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation but the Rams are also 11-6 ATS in games following their bye week under coach Sonny Lubick, which will keep me from playing Houston as a Best Bet. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
ARKANSAS (-7.0) 38 Kentucky 26
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Arkansas is coming off a tough loss at Alabama, but the Razorbacks should bounce back this week against a Kentucky team that is due for a letdown after upsetting rival Louisville last Saturday. Kentucky still doesn’t defend the run well (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed this year) and Arkansas has two of the nation’s best running back sin Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who should both post very good numbers in this game. Kentucky has a good offense led by mistake free quarterback Andre Woodson, who is on the verge of setting the all time record for consecutive passes without an interceptions (he needs 14 more), but Arkansas has a solid defensive team and my ratings favor the Hogs by 10 ½ points in this game. I’ll consider Arkansas a Strong Opinion in this game at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 30 Baylor (-3.5) 28
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Buffalo looks like a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season. Junior quarterback Drew Willy has an accurate arm (72% completions) and should be able to pick apart a yielding Baylor secondary that’s allowed 5.9 yards per pass play to teams that collectively would average 4.8 yppp against an average defense. Buffalo is even worse defending the pass (7.7 yppp against teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), but Baylor rates below average throwing the ball after adjusting for level of opposing defenses. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game and my ratings favor Buffalo to get the straight up win. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UL LAFAYETTE 31 Troy State (-10.0) 36
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Troy State is coming off a big upset win over Oklahoma State, but that win sets up the Trojans in a negative 46-93 ATS road favorite letdown situation today against a Lafayette team that will control the ball on the ground. Teams that can run well are usually good bets as home underdogs and Lafayette, averaging 240 yards at 5.3 yards per rushing play should have no trouble running the ball against a Troy defense that’s surrendered an average of 294 yards at 6.8 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average defensive team). Lafayette won’t be able to stop the passing of Troy’s Omar Haugabook, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are getting double-s and road favorites of 10 points or more that are bad defending the run usually don’t cover. My ratings favor Troy by 9 ½ points with RB Tyrell Fenroy out for Lafayette (backup Wallace has averaged 5.2 ypr in his career) and I’ll consider Louisiana Lafayette a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-23.5) 44 Marshall 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Marshall hit a new low last week in losing to New Hampshire while Cincinnati continued to force turnovers in their 47-10 win over Miami-Ohio. The Bearcats have now forced 17 turnovers in 3 games and are +13 in turnover margin, which has a lot to do with their 47- 5 average score in those games. Cincy is not going to continue to be so fortunate, but the Bearcats are still a good team that I rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Those numbers are certainly good enough to dominate a Marshall team that is good offensively with quarterback Bernie Morris on the field (+0.6 yppl with Morris) but horrible on defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed 6.2 yards per rushing play and 6.7 yards per pass play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall on the stop side of the ball. My ratings actually only favor Cincy by 20 ½ points in this game, but the Bearcats apply to a 58-19-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation and a 68-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Marshall applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation. The Herd are also just 1-10 ATS on the road when not getting at least 28 points under coach Snyder and quarterback Morris is listed as questionable with an injured toe that kept him from starting last week’s game. Morris came into the contest late in the first half and had a very good game in their loss to New Hampshire and that is an indication that he’ll start this game. However, I can also see an early exit for Morris once Cincinnati takes a decent sized lead in the second half and Marshall’s backup quarterback Anderson has been horrible so far with just 3.0 yards per pass play on 26 pass plays. The situations and indicators favoring Cincinnati would give them a 64% chance of covering at a fair line of -20 ½ points, which means that they still have a profitable 57% chance of covering at -23 points, which is what I’ll make the cutoff on this game. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less and I’d take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Iowa 20 WISCONSIN (-7.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Neither of these teams is playing as well as expected, as Iowa is struggling on offense while Wisconsin is struggling defensively. The Hawkeyes have averaged just 4.9 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team but Iowa still has an outstanding defense that’s yielded just 3.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense should keep them competitive in this game against a Badgers’ squad that has been pretty good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but has surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team. Wisconsin looked good in their opening day win over Washington State, but they barely beat UNLV and then allowed The Citadel to keep last week’s game close until late in the 4th quarter. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 7 ½ points, but Iowa is a solid play based on a 59-17-2 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their strong defense. The Hawkeyes also apply to a 54-24-1 ATS game 4 situation. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
3 Star Selection
***LSU (-16.5) 35 South Carolina 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
LSU has been unbelievably good on defense through their first 3 games, allowing only 129 yards per game at 2.3 yards per play with no team gaining more than 149 yards or averaging higher than 2.6 yppl. South Carolina will be the best offensive team that the Tigers have faced, but the Gamecocks haven’t shown the explosive pass attack that was evident last season, as perhaps the loss of 2nd round NFL draft pick Sidney Rice has hurt more than expected. Quarterback Blake Mitchell was great at the end of last season and averaged 8.3 yards per pass play for the season but Mitchell has averaged only 5.2 yppp in two games this season (he was suspended for the opener), including only 4.9 yppp against a solid Georgia defense. Being shut down by Georgia does not bode well for Mitchell today against an even better LSU defense and the Gamecocks’ good rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play) doesn’t figure to produce even mediocre numbers against a Tigers’ defensive front that’s allowed just 2.7 yprp against 3 decent running teams. South Carolina should have better success offensively than the other 3 teams that have faced LSU, but I still don’t expect them to score more than 10 points. South Carolina has played pretty well defensively thanks to a very good secondary, but the Gamecocks have suffered some attrition along the defensive line and are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. LSU may be slowed down through the air, but the Tigers may not need to throw given that they have averaged 246 yards at 6.1 yprp and should dominate South Carolina’s defensive line. In addition to the favorable fundamentals the Tigers apply to a 46-8 ATS subset of a 117-58-4 ATS home momentum situation as well as a 58-19-1 ATS momentum situation. South Carolina is 9-1 ATS on the road under coach Steve Spurrier, but that’s the only thing keeping this from being a 4-Star Best Bet. I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -19 points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona 29 CALIFORNIA (-15.5) 34
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
As much as I love my Bears they appear overrated to me. Cal has a great offense that can beat you by land (7.4 yards per rushing play) and by air (Longshore has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in his career against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Bears have been just mediocre defensively this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Arizona is capable of slowing down the Cal attack. The Wildcats were 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively last season and they’re 0.5 yppl better than average this season. Arizona’s offense was the problem last season, as talented quarterback Willie Tuitama was sacked too many times and had problems with concussions that kept him out of the lineup often. Coach Mike Stoops brought in Sonny Dykes to install the Texas Tech spread passing offense, which is based on 3 step drops and quick release times, which will keep Tuitama upright more this season (just 3 sacks on 136 pass plays this season) and allow him to use his considerable skills. The results have been pretty good so far (6.1 yards per play when Tuitama is in the game, against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) and Arizona should move the ball well against the Bears. Cal’s star WR DeSean Jackson has a badly sprained thumb that has caused him to drop some balls and the Bears have 3 key defensive players all listed as questionable this week. There is good depth on Cal’s defense, but Jackson’s problems have hurt the pass attack and Longshore has averaged just 6.5 yppp in the first 3 games while overthrowing a lot of receivers. I used Longshore’s career stats (which are much better) in my model and my ratings favor Cal by only 11 ½ points and my preseason ratings would have favored the Bears by only 10 points. There is some line value favoring Arizona because of last week’s upset loss to New Mexico, but that was a bit of a fluke given that the Wildcats out-gained New Mexico 6.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. The loss also sets up the Wildcats in a very strong 43-11 ATS subset of an 80- 38 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I know Cal has revenge for losing in Tucson last season, but that situation is 17-2 ATS if the opposing team has revenge and Cal is just 6-6 ATS in conference revenge games under Jeff Tedford. Besides, big underdogs usually play better if they won the previous year’s match-up since they come into the game with confidence. The Bears are now just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11 points or more while Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 7 points or more. I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and I’ll make the Wildcats a 4-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (2-Stars from +12 to +13 ½).
2 Star Selection
**NAVY (-11.5) 41 Duke 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Duke broke their 22 game losing streak last week, but that will only serve to put the Midshipmen on alert this week, just in case last week’s loss to Ball State wasn’t enough to have them motivated. Navy is 9-4-1 ATS in games after a loss since coach Paul Johnson’s second season (2003), including 7-1 ATS against losing teams, so the Middies have a habit of taking out their frustrations on bad teams. Navy is actually 20-5 ATS in all games against losing teams the last few years while Duke is just 1-5 ATS after a victory and only 4-13 ATS under coach Roof when not an underdog of more than 14 points, including 0-9 ATS in non-conference games. Duke also applies to a negative 17-41 ATS game 4 situation that plays against teams coming off their first win of the season. Navy’s option attack has averaged 438 yards at 6.5 yards per play and that unit should have no trouble running against a Duke defense that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team). Navy’s defense has been a trouble spot with just 2 of last year’s starters currently playing, but Duke’s porous attack (just 3.9 yards per play) is not likely to take full advantage of a Middies’ defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl so far this season. Duke will score some points, but Navy is likely to score almost every time that they get the ball and my ratings favor the Midshipmen by 17 ½ points while using this year’s games only would result in Navy by 20 ½ points. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
Strong Opinion
North Carolina 21 S. FLORIDA (-13.5) 29
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
North Carolina has had two tough luck losses in a row, losing on a last minute field goal at East Carolina two weeks ago and then losing 20-22 at home to Virginia last week thank to a -3 in turnover margin. North Carolina out-gained East Carolina 6.8 yards per play to 6.4 yppl and they dominated Virginia 6.5 yppl to 4.7 yppl, but being on the losing end of both of those games has the Tarheels underrated. South Florida is a very strong defensive team again this season, but UNC quarterback T.J. Yates has averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 9.5 yards per pass play in his first 3 games. South Florida’s offense has struggled a bit in their first two games (4.7 yppl), but they were a good unit last season and return nearly intact so I expect the Bulls’ attack to move the ball pretty well against a sub-par Tarheels’ defense. Overall my ratings only favor South Florida by 8 points and I expect the Tarheels to keep this game competitive. I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Miami Ohio 19 COLORADO (-14.0) 28
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Miami-Ohio let me down last week, but it’s tough to stay close when you’re -4 in turnover margin and losing by 37 points at home to Cincinnati has created some line value this week. Miami-Ohio really isn’t that bad of a team, as the Redhawks have averaged 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that rate about average as a group. Miami upset Ball State on the road and then nearly upset Minnesota before losing in overtime, so staying close to a sub-par Colorado contingent isn’t too much to ask. The Buffaloes are still having troubles offensively and they’ve been out-gained this season 4.1 yppl to 4.7 yppl by teams that would out-gain an average team by 0.3 yppl – so Colorado has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is about the same as Miami-Ohio. Miami has lost their top two running backs and an offensive linemen, so their rushing attack isn’t likely to be as good as it has been, but my ratings favor Colorado by only 9 ½ points after adjusting for those losses. I’ll consider Miami- Ohio a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets up to +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON (-6.5) 37 Colorado St. 25
01:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Houston has one of the nation’s most explosive weapons in running back Anthony Alridge, who ran for 959 yards at 10.1 ypr last season and has accounted for 429 total yards from scrimmage in just 2 games this season (7.3 ypr and 27.4 ypc on 5 catches). Colorado State has allowed 7.3 yards per rushing play in their two games, so Alridge should have another big game today. Colorado State likes to pound the ball with bowling ball Kyle Bell, but Bell has only averaged 3.6 ypr on his 66 carries this season. The Rams are much more effective when quarterback Caleb Hanie is throwing the football and he’s averaged an impressive 7.4 yards per pass play on 72% completions so far this season. Houston has defended the pass well so far and their overall defensive average of 5.8 yards per play allowed is good considering that one of their two opponents (Oregon) has the best offense in the nation. My ratings favor Houston by 7 ½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Cougars by 9 points. Colorado State applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation but the Rams are also 11-6 ATS in games following their bye week under coach Sonny Lubick, which will keep me from playing Houston as a Best Bet. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
ARKANSAS (-7.0) 38 Kentucky 26
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Arkansas is coming off a tough loss at Alabama, but the Razorbacks should bounce back this week against a Kentucky team that is due for a letdown after upsetting rival Louisville last Saturday. Kentucky still doesn’t defend the run well (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed this year) and Arkansas has two of the nation’s best running back sin Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who should both post very good numbers in this game. Kentucky has a good offense led by mistake free quarterback Andre Woodson, who is on the verge of setting the all time record for consecutive passes without an interceptions (he needs 14 more), but Arkansas has a solid defensive team and my ratings favor the Hogs by 10 ½ points in this game. I’ll consider Arkansas a Strong Opinion in this game at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 30 Baylor (-3.5) 28
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Buffalo looks like a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season. Junior quarterback Drew Willy has an accurate arm (72% completions) and should be able to pick apart a yielding Baylor secondary that’s allowed 5.9 yards per pass play to teams that collectively would average 4.8 yppp against an average defense. Buffalo is even worse defending the pass (7.7 yppp against teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), but Baylor rates below average throwing the ball after adjusting for level of opposing defenses. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game and my ratings favor Buffalo to get the straight up win. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UL LAFAYETTE 31 Troy State (-10.0) 36
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Troy State is coming off a big upset win over Oklahoma State, but that win sets up the Trojans in a negative 46-93 ATS road favorite letdown situation today against a Lafayette team that will control the ball on the ground. Teams that can run well are usually good bets as home underdogs and Lafayette, averaging 240 yards at 5.3 yards per rushing play should have no trouble running the ball against a Troy defense that’s surrendered an average of 294 yards at 6.8 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average defensive team). Lafayette won’t be able to stop the passing of Troy’s Omar Haugabook, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are getting double-s and road favorites of 10 points or more that are bad defending the run usually don’t cover. My ratings favor Troy by 9 ½ points with RB Tyrell Fenroy out for Lafayette (backup Wallace has averaged 5.2 ypr in his career) and I’ll consider Louisiana Lafayette a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-23.5) 44 Marshall 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Marshall hit a new low last week in losing to New Hampshire while Cincinnati continued to force turnovers in their 47-10 win over Miami-Ohio. The Bearcats have now forced 17 turnovers in 3 games and are +13 in turnover margin, which has a lot to do with their 47- 5 average score in those games. Cincy is not going to continue to be so fortunate, but the Bearcats are still a good team that I rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Those numbers are certainly good enough to dominate a Marshall team that is good offensively with quarterback Bernie Morris on the field (+0.6 yppl with Morris) but horrible on defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed 6.2 yards per rushing play and 6.7 yards per pass play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall on the stop side of the ball. My ratings actually only favor Cincy by 20 ½ points in this game, but the Bearcats apply to a 58-19-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation and a 68-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Marshall applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation. The Herd are also just 1-10 ATS on the road when not getting at least 28 points under coach Snyder and quarterback Morris is listed as questionable with an injured toe that kept him from starting last week’s game. Morris came into the contest late in the first half and had a very good game in their loss to New Hampshire and that is an indication that he’ll start this game. However, I can also see an early exit for Morris once Cincinnati takes a decent sized lead in the second half and Marshall’s backup quarterback Anderson has been horrible so far with just 3.0 yards per pass play on 26 pass plays. The situations and indicators favoring Cincinnati would give them a 64% chance of covering at a fair line of -20 ½ points, which means that they still have a profitable 57% chance of covering at -23 points, which is what I’ll make the cutoff on this game. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less and I’d take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Iowa 20 WISCONSIN (-7.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Neither of these teams is playing as well as expected, as Iowa is struggling on offense while Wisconsin is struggling defensively. The Hawkeyes have averaged just 4.9 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team but Iowa still has an outstanding defense that’s yielded just 3.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense should keep them competitive in this game against a Badgers’ squad that has been pretty good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but has surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team. Wisconsin looked good in their opening day win over Washington State, but they barely beat UNLV and then allowed The Citadel to keep last week’s game close until late in the 4th quarter. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 7 ½ points, but Iowa is a solid play based on a 59-17-2 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their strong defense. The Hawkeyes also apply to a 54-24-1 ATS game 4 situation. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
PPP Steamrollers
5% NEBRASKA
With only Iowa St on deck, Nebraska will be in an ornery mood following their 31-49 loss to USC on this field on National TV LW. History indicates Ball St is in trouble. Nebraska is 10-3 ATS -10+, 10-5 ATS / Loss and beat Troy 56-0 on this field LY after losing to USC. In week 1 the ever improving Huskers rang up 413 RY in pummeling Nevada. Last week Ball allowed Navy 521 yards overland. Expect an overland Steamrolling output somewhere between the 2 numbers as Nebraska cruises to a 30+ point victory against a Ball St team traveling for the 3rd consecutive week who is 0-7 ATS against Big 12 opponents. Wrong place, wrong time for the Pay Day team.
3% NAVY
LW we used Navy as a 5* Big East Game of the Week in their 31-34 loss to Ball St. When was the last time you saw a 7 point favorite rush for 521 yards and lose the game? NEVER!!! Further west Duke ended their 23 game losing streak by defeating Northwestern as +17. There were out gained by the Wild Cats 507-309 despite the Wild Cats not having their best offensive player, RB Sutton. It sets up the biggest “inverted stat play of the week” with at least 7 points of line value as a result. Navy has won and covered the last 3 in this series including LY when they out rushed Duke 435-113. Not much has changed as the Middies are #1 in the Nation in rushing at 379 RYPG on 6.5 YPR. Duke is still allowing 4.0 YPR while their pitiful offense is averaging just 16 PPG. Navy QB Kaipo who suffered 2nd half ankle injuries vs. Ball has been upgraded to probable for this weeks action. A true Steamroller.
3% KANSAS
Jay Hawks are new to this early season menu of devouring cupcakes. But they have clearly learned from the best in copying in state rival Kansas St who built their program in the 90’s with the same MO. To date, the Jay Hawks are 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS beating C. Mich, SELA, and Toledo by a margin of 46 PPG. Now comes the worst team in D1, Florida Intl who is 0-15 SU L2Y and is averaging just 6 PPG. With Mangino a bankroll bulging 15-5 ATS at home and with a week off to follow, look for another Steamrolling effort by Kansas this week against a Florida Intl team sandwiched between Home town Miami Fla. And their conference schedule. This one is in the barn by half time. Rock Chalk Jay Hawk.
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5% NEBRASKA
With only Iowa St on deck, Nebraska will be in an ornery mood following their 31-49 loss to USC on this field on National TV LW. History indicates Ball St is in trouble. Nebraska is 10-3 ATS -10+, 10-5 ATS / Loss and beat Troy 56-0 on this field LY after losing to USC. In week 1 the ever improving Huskers rang up 413 RY in pummeling Nevada. Last week Ball allowed Navy 521 yards overland. Expect an overland Steamrolling output somewhere between the 2 numbers as Nebraska cruises to a 30+ point victory against a Ball St team traveling for the 3rd consecutive week who is 0-7 ATS against Big 12 opponents. Wrong place, wrong time for the Pay Day team.
3% NAVY
LW we used Navy as a 5* Big East Game of the Week in their 31-34 loss to Ball St. When was the last time you saw a 7 point favorite rush for 521 yards and lose the game? NEVER!!! Further west Duke ended their 23 game losing streak by defeating Northwestern as +17. There were out gained by the Wild Cats 507-309 despite the Wild Cats not having their best offensive player, RB Sutton. It sets up the biggest “inverted stat play of the week” with at least 7 points of line value as a result. Navy has won and covered the last 3 in this series including LY when they out rushed Duke 435-113. Not much has changed as the Middies are #1 in the Nation in rushing at 379 RYPG on 6.5 YPR. Duke is still allowing 4.0 YPR while their pitiful offense is averaging just 16 PPG. Navy QB Kaipo who suffered 2nd half ankle injuries vs. Ball has been upgraded to probable for this weeks action. A true Steamroller.
3% KANSAS
Jay Hawks are new to this early season menu of devouring cupcakes. But they have clearly learned from the best in copying in state rival Kansas St who built their program in the 90’s with the same MO. To date, the Jay Hawks are 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS beating C. Mich, SELA, and Toledo by a margin of 46 PPG. Now comes the worst team in D1, Florida Intl who is 0-15 SU L2Y and is averaging just 6 PPG. With Mangino a bankroll bulging 15-5 ATS at home and with a week off to follow, look for another Steamrolling effort by Kansas this week against a Florida Intl team sandwiched between Home town Miami Fla. And their conference schedule. This one is in the barn by half time. Rock Chalk Jay Hawk.
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Karl Garrett Comp
Kentucky (+7) at ARKANSAS
Some folks I know think the Wildcats are going to suffer a letdown after taking down Louisville last week in dramatic fashion, but not the G-Man!
Kentucky is for real, and will present some serious problems for Arkansas' defense, as the Razorbacks had all sorts of problems against Troy's spread offense passing attack, and they were not getting consistent pressure against Alabama last week in their 3-point setback either. That achilles heel will be exploited by Andre Woodson who is just 14 passes shy of an NCAA record for consecutive passes without an interception.
The Wildcats have outscored opponents 35-6 in the 4th quarter this year which bodes well here today getting around a touchdown. Kentucky is also on a 13-6-1 spread run their last 20 games on-board, and have covered 5 of their last 7 against the SEC.
Conversely, Arkansas is a money-burning 4-9-2 their last 15 lined games, and their star running back Darren McFadden is not at 100% after suffering a concussion in last week's game.
This game is going to go down to the wire, as Kentucky has too much offense to get blown out by the Razorbacks today.
3♦ KENTUCKY
Kentucky (+7) at ARKANSAS
Some folks I know think the Wildcats are going to suffer a letdown after taking down Louisville last week in dramatic fashion, but not the G-Man!
Kentucky is for real, and will present some serious problems for Arkansas' defense, as the Razorbacks had all sorts of problems against Troy's spread offense passing attack, and they were not getting consistent pressure against Alabama last week in their 3-point setback either. That achilles heel will be exploited by Andre Woodson who is just 14 passes shy of an NCAA record for consecutive passes without an interception.
The Wildcats have outscored opponents 35-6 in the 4th quarter this year which bodes well here today getting around a touchdown. Kentucky is also on a 13-6-1 spread run their last 20 games on-board, and have covered 5 of their last 7 against the SEC.
Conversely, Arkansas is a money-burning 4-9-2 their last 15 lined games, and their star running back Darren McFadden is not at 100% after suffering a concussion in last week's game.
This game is going to go down to the wire, as Kentucky has too much offense to get blown out by the Razorbacks today.
3♦ KENTUCKY
Bobby Maxwell Comp
Georgia Tech -3'
Hit our last college football Bonus Play a week ago when we went with Hawaii to take care of business and cover the number in Las Vegas against UNLV. Today we're in Virginia for a complimentary winner on Georgia Tech as they take on the Cavaliers.
The high-flying Georgia Tech offense grounded itself last week in its 24-10 loss to Boston College at home. The running game got just 63 yards on 28 carries in the ACC loss.
But don't think this team doesn't have enough to beat Virginia. The Cavaliers scored a 22-20 win over North Carolina last week but needed all kinds of help to get to 22 - three turnovers from North Carolina. Virgina is averaging just 16 points a game and 258 yards in each contest.
Georgia Tech is putting up 37.3 points a game and 381 yards per game. The Yellowjackets scored a 24-7 win over Virginia last week, pushing as a 17-point home favorite.
The 'Jackets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Virginia is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
This Georgia Tech offense will get cranked up again this week against a lowly Virginia squad. This one will be a blowout as the 'Jackets cruise to the win.
3? GEORGIA TECH
Georgia Tech -3'
Hit our last college football Bonus Play a week ago when we went with Hawaii to take care of business and cover the number in Las Vegas against UNLV. Today we're in Virginia for a complimentary winner on Georgia Tech as they take on the Cavaliers.
The high-flying Georgia Tech offense grounded itself last week in its 24-10 loss to Boston College at home. The running game got just 63 yards on 28 carries in the ACC loss.
But don't think this team doesn't have enough to beat Virginia. The Cavaliers scored a 22-20 win over North Carolina last week but needed all kinds of help to get to 22 - three turnovers from North Carolina. Virgina is averaging just 16 points a game and 258 yards in each contest.
Georgia Tech is putting up 37.3 points a game and 381 yards per game. The Yellowjackets scored a 24-7 win over Virginia last week, pushing as a 17-point home favorite.
The 'Jackets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Virginia is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
This Georgia Tech offense will get cranked up again this week against a lowly Virginia squad. This one will be a blowout as the 'Jackets cruise to the win.
3? GEORGIA TECH
Bobby Maxwell Comp
MLB
Boston at TAMPA BAY (+175)
Hope you've been listening to my Bonus Plays lately as we've hit three straight huge plus-money winners. Today we're coming right back with another underdog as we go with the Devil Rays to take out the Red Sox in Tampa Bay.
Boston got the win Friday in Tampa and was able to fend off the Yankees for day.
Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.41 ERA) has hit a wall and struggled down the stretch. The Red Sox has lost six of his last seven starts and he's allowed five or more runs in four of the seven.
Last time he pitched on the road was Sept. 8 when he allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-5 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore. In his last three road outings he's allowed 15 runs in 15 innings.
And against Tampa Bay the Red Sox are just 1-3 when Matsuzaka takes the mound.
Andy Sonnanstine (6.9, 5.68) is 2-0 in his last three outings and the Devil Rays are 5-2 in his last seven starts. His last home start was Sept. 5 when he held the Orioles to two runs on nine hits in six innings of a 17-2 trouncing.
Sonnanstine's seen the Red Sox three times this season and been roughed up twice. He did get a win against Boston back on Aug. 15 in Boston.
The Devil Rays have been hot at home lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 in Tampa.
Let's grab this huge plus-money and go with the Devil Rays as Matsuzaka just doesn't have the arm to finish the season strong.
2? TAMPA BAY
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MLB
Boston at TAMPA BAY (+175)
Hope you've been listening to my Bonus Plays lately as we've hit three straight huge plus-money winners. Today we're coming right back with another underdog as we go with the Devil Rays to take out the Red Sox in Tampa Bay.
Boston got the win Friday in Tampa and was able to fend off the Yankees for day.
Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.41 ERA) has hit a wall and struggled down the stretch. The Red Sox has lost six of his last seven starts and he's allowed five or more runs in four of the seven.
Last time he pitched on the road was Sept. 8 when he allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings of an 11-5 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore. In his last three road outings he's allowed 15 runs in 15 innings.
And against Tampa Bay the Red Sox are just 1-3 when Matsuzaka takes the mound.
Andy Sonnanstine (6.9, 5.68) is 2-0 in his last three outings and the Devil Rays are 5-2 in his last seven starts. His last home start was Sept. 5 when he held the Orioles to two runs on nine hits in six innings of a 17-2 trouncing.
Sonnanstine's seen the Red Sox three times this season and been roughed up twice. He did get a win against Boston back on Aug. 15 in Boston.
The Devil Rays have been hot at home lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 in Tampa.
Let's grab this huge plus-money and go with the Devil Rays as Matsuzaka just doesn't have the arm to finish the season strong.
2? TAMPA BAY
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