I am a firm believer that only big money moves lines but in a few spots the public loading up all day on a play can move a number, like the Monday night game. I know this is up for debate and we can never prove either way but with that said I think this years first few Monday night games are different than in the past few years.
A strong offense, at home, in a must win situation, as a low to mid favorite is something it seems most people would throw a few bucks on in the past. In the past few years I have followed and studied line movement up and down and games like tonite were no brainers to guess which way the number would move.
I could be totally off base on this but this game tonite has the exact same feel of some I have seen in the past that would shoot up a point or two gameday and it just doesnt seem to be happening this year. My guess is that there just isnt the ton of recreational players offshore whose $50-100 plays would add up to a very lopsided amount forcing the books to move a little.
Like I said there is no right or wrong answer to this and some are going to come in here and totally disagree but I made bets like this on most Monday nighters in the past and almost like clockwork the number went up on gameday and I found +5.5 or 6 at some of my square shops. There's still an hour before kickoff but not seeing anything like I thought. Though the total has gradually went up like most Monday nighters.
I do have a -4 from earlier in the week but I anticapted a +6 late Monday night. I have to believe alot of bettors that are just betting with thier locals and millions of Saints dollars is not offshore anymore. Games like the Monday night game didnt have enough underdog money to stop what was a tidal wave of favorite money on gameday in the past but maybe not this year.
Like to hear what others think or if they have noticed the same.
A strong offense, at home, in a must win situation, as a low to mid favorite is something it seems most people would throw a few bucks on in the past. In the past few years I have followed and studied line movement up and down and games like tonite were no brainers to guess which way the number would move.
I could be totally off base on this but this game tonite has the exact same feel of some I have seen in the past that would shoot up a point or two gameday and it just doesnt seem to be happening this year. My guess is that there just isnt the ton of recreational players offshore whose $50-100 plays would add up to a very lopsided amount forcing the books to move a little.
Like I said there is no right or wrong answer to this and some are going to come in here and totally disagree but I made bets like this on most Monday nighters in the past and almost like clockwork the number went up on gameday and I found +5.5 or 6 at some of my square shops. There's still an hour before kickoff but not seeing anything like I thought. Though the total has gradually went up like most Monday nighters.
I do have a -4 from earlier in the week but I anticapted a +6 late Monday night. I have to believe alot of bettors that are just betting with thier locals and millions of Saints dollars is not offshore anymore. Games like the Monday night game didnt have enough underdog money to stop what was a tidal wave of favorite money on gameday in the past but maybe not this year.
Like to hear what others think or if they have noticed the same.
