Service Plays 9/27/07

diehardsabre · Sep 27, 2007

Michael Cannons Free Pick Winner

Complimentary Selection THURSDAY'S PLAY

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That's two straight free winners after the Blue Jays get it done on the run line last night. That ups my record to 12-5-1 with my last 18 overall Bonus Plays.

Take the Rockies as the small road chalk tonight over the Dodgers.

How could you not love the Rockies tonight? The Dodgers have quit on the season while the Rockies keep churning out the wins.

Now Colorado will send Franklin Morales to the mound, he of the 17 straight scoreless innings streak. The left-hander is one of the best pitching prospects the Rockies have and he certainly is backing it up on the big league stage.

The Dodgers will counter with Esteban Loaiza and it appears as though he's quit on the season like his teammates have.

The right-hander is 0-3 with an 11.25 ERA over his last three games, with 13 walks in just 12 innings.

Take the Rockies as the small road chalk as they grab the win over the reeling Dodgers.

5? COLORADO
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kil_l_a · Sep 27, 2007

Michael Cannon

Michael Cannon Thursday Plays:

15 Dime –

BOISE STATE
Lay the points with Boise State tonight when they host Southern Miss.
The blue turf is one of the toughest venues to play on in all of college football, and this will be no exception for Southern Miss.
Boise State is 53-2 SU in its last 55 home games, and 39-17 ATS in its last 56 against the number.
Ian Johnson leads a Bronco rushing attack that averages 198.3 ypg, and the Boise State underrated offensive line should gradually take over as the game goes on, creating longer fields for Southern Miss when they do have to punt it away.
Southern Miss quarterback Jeremy Young is a dual threat, but he is also prone to turnovers, which will help keep the momentum on the Broncos’ side. This is also the Golden Eagles third-straight road game, so I don’t like their chances of matching the Broncos intensity for a full four quarters.
The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS as a road dog in the last two seasons and just 9-13 ATS since 2000. Southern Miss head coach Jeff Bower is 1-18-1 SU and 6-14 ATS when playing a non-conference foe on the road when stuck in the middle of Conference USA games.
Boise State is a sparkling 11-0 ATS when favored by 12 or less points!
Lay the points and collect as Boise State grabs the home win and cover.

5 Dime –

ARKANSAS STATE
Lay the points with Arkansas State over Memphis.
Memphis hits the road again after getting mauled by Central Florida last week. The Tigers trailed 49-0 before they finally scored in the fourth quarter and lost 56-20. Memphis last lost 11 of its last 13 games, with victories only against Utep in last year’s season finale and Division 1-AA Jackson State on September 15.
Arkansas State has already traveled to play against Texas and Tennessee this year and should be well equipped to handle the toothless Tigers.
The Indians have more balance and offense and should be able to move the ball at will against the Tigers. Despite the two aforementioned games against Texas and Tennessee, Arkansas State is actually outgaining their opponents by an average of 430-403 ypg.
Lay the points as Arkansas State wins and covers at home.

YANKEES
Take the Yankees for the road win over the Devil Rays.
I know Scott Kazmir is getting the start for Tampa Bay and he’s been brilliant lately, but he’s going against way too much firepower and determination in the Yankees.
The Yankees will send a pretty good young pitcher of their own in Phil Hughes to the mound. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last four starts and has benefited from some awesome run support. The Yankees have scored 39 runs over that span, winning each game.
If the Yanks are going to have any hopes of winning the division, they know they must win out and I wouldn’t bet against them doing so.
Take the Yankees as they grab the road win.

Digeze · Sep 27, 2007

Larry Ness

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Sep 27 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reason: Of course there is no such thing as a lock but look at all the things working in the favor of the Devil Rays tonight. The Yankees scored seven runs in the fifth inning Wednesday night and cruised to a 12-4 victory (pounding out 18 hits), avoiding a third straight defeat. They also clinched a playoff spot for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak of postseason appearances in the majors (one shy of Atlanta's all-time record set from 1991-2005). It's been a long haul for the Yankees, who opened the season 21-29 but are 70-38 since. They've now reached the postseason in all 12 seasons under manager Joe Torre, who is in the final season of his contract and this may be his last year. Rookie Phil Hughes (4-3, 4.80 ERA) will take the mound for New York and while he has pitched well in the season's final month, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four September starts (team is 4-0), he might not get much help. With a playoff spot secure but another division crown unlikely (Boston leads by three with four games left), the Yankees may choose to rest some of their weary veterans. Now let's check in on Tampa Bay. This will be the team's final home game of the '07 season and they'll start team ace, Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.54 ERA). Kazmir's been excellent since the break, going 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA. With him on the mound, the pathetic Devil Rays turn into a competitive team. Note these numbers. With Kazmir starting, Tampa Bay went 13-11 (plus-$444) in '06 but just 48-90 (minus-$2,316) with another starting pitcher. The same is true this year. The D'Rays are 19-14 (plus-$614) in his starts, while going 65-93 (minus-$1,804) when it's someone else on the mound. Do the Yanks have any real motivation here? I think not. Conversely, the D'Rays close their season at home with the lefty Kazmir, facing a Yankee team that's 2-14 (minus-$1,830) vs left-handers on the season. MLB Game of the Year 20* TB Devil Rays.

Digeze · Sep 27, 2007

Pure Lock

Thursday
MEMPHIS @ ARKANSAS STATE 7:00 PM EST

PLAY ON: MEMPHIS (+) PTS

kil_l_a · Sep 27, 2007

anyone got lang? whats he saying for today

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

Jimmy The Moose

Guaranteed Pick

Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Sep 27 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over

Reason: With no pressure on them the Blue Jays bats have finally awakened. The over is a profitable 5-1 in their last 6 games and all 6 have been road games. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played on grass. The over is 9-1-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games as a favorite. In their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record the over is 6-2. The over is a profitable 22-9 in Baltimore's last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Guthrie's last 6 starts on grass. Baltimore has played the over in 6 of his last 8 starts. The last 4 meetings between the teams have played over the total. The teams have played the over in 5 of the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Tonight's game will be another high-scoring game, play the over.

thebev+ · Sep 27, 2007

Digeze said:
Thursday
MEMPHIS @ ARKANSAS STATE 7:00 PM EST

PLAY ON: MEMPHIS (+) PTS

Is this their one pick of the week? or a comp?

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

Robert Ross

Thursday Night Smasher

Guaranteed Pick

Game: Southern Miss at Boise St. Sep 27 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: Boise St.

Reason: Tough travel spot for Southern Miss as it goes all the way across country to take on an unfamiliar foe after winning its conference opener. SOUTHERN MISS is 5-16 ATS off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival since 1992. BOISE ST is 19-8 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992 and 32-17 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Boise State!

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

the bev said:
Is this their one pick of the week? or a comp?

COMP

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

SCOTT SPRIETZER

THURSDAY NIGHT "Total" DOMINATOR

(101) So Miss vs (102) Boise St
Game Starts at September 27 2007 16:45 EST
Take under

I'm playing the UNDER between So. Miss. and Boise State. Everyone who thinks about the Broncos thinks about high-scoring offensive shootouts. But that's not been the case. Toss out the win over out-manned Weber State and the Broncos have combined for 34 points with Washington and 38 points in their 24-14 win over Wyoming. In fact, in their last eight September tilts, Boise State has played to the UNDER on seven occasions. They'll look to run the football in an attempt to control the line of scrimmage in this one. But that will play right into Southern Miss' stingy defensive hands. No less than eight starters return to HC Jeff Bower's defense. That's the most returning starters since the 2003 season when the Eagles allowed just 14.6 PPG in conference play. This one is obviously a non-conference matchup, but the low scoring outcome will be the same! Meanwhile, RB Damion Fletcher will get plenty of carries as is the case in most of Bower's road tilts throughout his 17 years at the helm. Fletcher is averaging 5.3 yards per pop and will look to bang away at Boise's small-ish defensive front. With both teams focusing on the ground attack, we'll take advantage of a public number and play the contest to stay UNDER the posted total.

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

Ben Burns

MLB
Blue Chip Total
Balt/Tor UNDER

Underdog of the Week
TampaBay ML

Personal Favorite
Milwaukee ML

NCAA
T.V. Total of the Week
Boise St/S. Miss UNDER

Thursday Night Roast
Memphis +3

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

kil_l_a said:
anyone got lang? whats he saying for today

Brandon Lang

THURSDAY
15 DIME
Southern Miss

5 DIME
Rockies - Specify Pitchers - Morales vs Loiaza

Free Pick - Phillies

There is a service thread in college hoops that has a Lang forum. This came from that forum

GL

serlaccorp · Sep 27, 2007

the bev said:
Is this their one pick of the week? or a comp?

THAT'S THERE FREE PICK

goodatbetsnope · Sep 27, 2007

-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Atlanta at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #956 Philadelphia (+1.5, -130) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
We have our boy Ed Rapuano behind the dish and Easy Ed is 25-41 against the total over the past two years. That’s a 62.2 percent ‘under’ rate. This one is essentially a full-blown playoff game considering that the Braves will be eliminated if they fall. John Smoltz has stayed ‘under’ in 12 of his past 18 starts and has given up more than three earned runs in one of his past 16 starts. I do think Philly wins this one, 4-2, to cloe the book on the Braves and get themselves one game closer to the postseason.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 St. Louis at New York Mets (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #973 St. Louis (+1.5, +110) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Mets are in a free fall and we’re looking to keep cashing on their misery. They are killing the ball – whatever lineup they throw out there – but they just cannot get people out. I think Pedro will give them six inspired innings, but New York’s bullpen is a complete disaster. New York will blow another late lead and this one will go ‘over’ around the seventh inning as the Cardinals kick the Mets in the groin in Shea for the second year in a row.

1-Unit Play. Take #968 Tampa Bay (+1.5, -135) over New York Yankees (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Yankees earned themselves another postseason berth last night and now I expect them to relax a bit. Scott Kazmir is on the hill for Tampa Bay and I’ll take y chances with him over Phil Hughes. Kazmir is 12-4 in his last 16 starts against a team with a winning record and the Yankees are 6-20 on the road against a left-handed starter.

1-Unit Play. Take #964 Boston (-1.5, -125) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Twins have gone 4-13 in Boof Bonser’s last 17 appearances and Boof has an ERA of 6.88 in his last 10 outings. The Red Sox are hoping to close the door on the Yankees for the division title and rest this weekend. Boston is 21-8 in Josh Beckett’s last 29 starts and 88-20 in their last 108 games at home as a favorite of -201 or greater.

That's it for today. Good luck. Robert Ferringo

goodatbetsnope · Sep 27, 2007

Russ Culver Part I +10.4u ytd bases

Pirates +210

"Grand Salami" UNDER 117 1/2 -110 (2 units)

Kelso Best Bets Club
10 units Southern Miss +10.5 @ Boise State

goodatbetsnope · Sep 27, 2007

BIG AL

Comp : Tampa Bay (over N.Y.Yankees)Kazmir/Hughes

Comp : Arizona (over Pitt)Webb/VanBenschoten

Ben Lee Eckstein
85~48
Brew crew - 170

goodatbetsnope · Sep 27, 2007

Mighty ! Quinn
Boise st - 10 1/2
Blue Jays (even)

Mighty quinn
4-0 best bets
43 ~ 31 ~ 2
Last week 12 ~ 9
__________________
JIM FEIST BASEBALL 2007 REGULAR SEASON PACKAGE!!
(955) ATL Braves vs (956) PHI Phillies
Game Starts at September 27 2007 16:05 EST
Take (956) PHI Phillies
5 Star

GAMBLERS DATA

COMP PLAY

Rockies -120 List Morales

Bonus Play Record 804-460 65%

Al Full Service Yesterday 0 - 2

3* Brewers
3* D'rays
3* Rockies

goodatbetsnope · Sep 27, 2007

Ron Raymond’s Week 14 CFL Picks

Toronto 51.5 vs. Edmonton -5
Pick: Toronto +5.5 (5* BEST BET)
Ron’s Comment: Michael Bishop has brought some life to the Argos since coming back from his wrist injury and the Argonauts have won 3 of their last 4 games since Labor Day. In order to start a winning streak, you need to start with a win and the boatmen did that last weekend with a nice win over Eastern Division leaders Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Eskimos are just too radical to support in this spot, as you never know which Eskimos team will show up. Plus, in their last 10 home games vs. Eastern division Opponents, the Eskimos are 2-8 ATS. Toronto is 8-3 SU and ATS in Edmonton since 1996. Play Toronto +5.5
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog -After a division game - Coming off a game scored 31 points or more - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Allowed scored 24 points or less against. The Road Underdog is 8-4 ATS in this situation since ’96.

Forecast: Toronto 28 Edmonton 24

Montreal 52.0 vs. Saskatchewan -6
Pick: Saskatchewan -6.0
Ron’s Comment: The CFL is a quarterback league and when your number one pivot is sidelined with a rotary cuff, chances are you will struggle. The Alouettes are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and without AC and Watkins and Cahoon, the Als are finding out their depth chart is not as deep as other clubs. However, Calvillo is expected to be back this weekend, but they will be facing a desperate Roughriders team who just lost a heartbreaker last weekend vs. the Lions and are currently riding a 3 game losing streak. In fact, from a point spread point of view, they haven’t covered a spread since August 10th in a 24-13 road win vs. the Argos as a -5.5 point road chalk. Montreal is very lucky to be a .500 ball club right now and with 2 straight back to back loses to Edmonton, you can see tension are high in Alouettes camp these days and we all know what happens when you start pointing fingers. Play on Saskatchewan -6.
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -During the month of September -With 6 day off - Coming off a game scored 34 points or less - Coming off back to back SU loss; The Home Team is 20-5 ATS in this role.

Forecast: Saskatchewan 34 Montreal 17

Hamilton 50.5 vs. Winnipeg -10
Pick: UNDER 50.05
Ron’s Comment: When the line first came out, I thought Hamilton as a +10 point road underdog was a good value play, but that was with Casey Printers starting, not Ritchie Williams. Plus, with Jesse Lumsden in the backfield, he can get you some decent yardage which can result in some points, either a field goal or touchdowns. Plus, Nick Setta is probably the best place kicker in the CFL and that’s money when you’re betting underdogs. As for the Blue Bombers, they are coming off a 31-23 lost to Toronto, but failed on their comeback, after being down 21-1 at the half. To be honest, this is a tough game to call, because you have two different types of offenses with Printers and Williams at the helm. However, the strongest part about the Tiger Cats is their defense, so let’s play on their strength of keeping this a low scoring game.
ATSDatabase Tip: When WINNIPEG team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand; The UNDER is 12-3-0 for the Blue Bombers in this spot.

Forecast: Winnipeg 24 Hamilton 14

Calgary 54.5 vs. B.C.Lions -10.5
Pick: UNDER 54.5
Ron’s Comment: The Stampeders are coming off a double jeopardy here, as they lost to the last place team Hamilton Tiger Cats last weekend and lost their starting QB Henri Burris to injury in the dying seconds of the game in which he was marching his team for a score. Now, when you look at the B.C.Lions, they are coming off an emotional division last minute win last weekend vs. Saskatchewan, in which tempers were at a all time high for both teams. The line opened at -7.0 and the Burris injury news raised this line to -10.5. The Lions are in a classic letdown spot here vs. the Stampeders, but it’s hard to put your faith and money onto a QB like former Oregon Ducks standout Akili Smith, when he’s got no CFL experience and he’s heading into the Lions den this weekend. I would recommend you don’t touch the side on this game, as the Lions could be flat and the Stamps could have allot of 2 and outs. Play the UNDER.
ATSDatabase Tip: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Home team -After a division game - Coming off a 1 game over; The UNDER is 14-3-0 for the Lions in this spot since 1996.

Forecast: B.C.Lions 31 Calgary 7

Ron’s CFL Record:
5* CFL BEST BET Record: 5-7-1 ATS
1* CFL Record: 24-19 ATS
Straight up Forecast: 31-16-1 SU

patriots12 · Sep 27, 2007

goodatbetsnope said:
Ron Raymond’s Week 14 CFL Picks

Toronto 51.5 vs. Edmonton -5
Pick: Toronto +5.5 (5* BEST BET)
Ron’s Comment: Michael Bishop has brought some life to the Argos since coming back from his wrist injury and the Argonauts have won 3 of their last 4 games since Labor Day. In order to start a winning streak, you need to start with a win and the boatmen did that last weekend with a nice win over Eastern Division leaders Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Eskimos are just too radical to support in this spot, as you never know which Eskimos team will show up. Plus, in their last 10 home games vs. Eastern division Opponents, the Eskimos are 2-8 ATS. Toronto is 8-3 SU and ATS in Edmonton since 1996. Play Toronto +5.5
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog -After a division game - Coming off a game scored 31 points or more - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Allowed scored 24 points or less against. The Road Underdog is 8-4 ATS in this situation since ’96.

Forecast: Toronto 28 Edmonton 24

Montreal 52.0 vs. Saskatchewan -6
Pick: Saskatchewan -6.0
Ron’s Comment: The CFL is a quarterback league and when your number one pivot is sidelined with a rotary cuff, chances are you will struggle. The Alouettes are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and without AC and Watkins and Cahoon, the Als are finding out their depth chart is not as deep as other clubs. However, Calvillo is expected to be back this weekend, but they will be facing a desperate Roughriders team who just lost a heartbreaker last weekend vs. the Lions and are currently riding a 3 game losing streak. In fact, from a point spread point of view, they haven’t covered a spread since August 10th in a 24-13 road win vs. the Argos as a -5.5 point road chalk. Montreal is very lucky to be a .500 ball club right now and with 2 straight back to back loses to Edmonton, you can see tension are high in Alouettes camp these days and we all know what happens when you start pointing fingers. Play on Saskatchewan -6.
ATSDatabase Tip: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -During the month of September -With 6 day off - Coming off a game scored 34 points or less - Coming off back to back SU loss; The Home Team is 20-5 ATS in this role.

Forecast: Saskatchewan 34 Montreal 17

Hamilton 50.5 vs. Winnipeg -10
Pick: UNDER 50.05
Ron’s Comment: When the line first came out, I thought Hamilton as a +10 point road underdog was a good value play, but that was with Casey Printers starting, not Ritchie Williams. Plus, with Jesse Lumsden in the backfield, he can get you some decent yardage which can result in some points, either a field goal or touchdowns. Plus, Nick Setta is probably the best place kicker in the CFL and that’s money when you’re betting underdogs. As for the Blue Bombers, they are coming off a 31-23 lost to Toronto, but failed on their comeback, after being down 21-1 at the half. To be honest, this is a tough game to call, because you have two different types of offenses with Printers and Williams at the helm. However, the strongest part about the Tiger Cats is their defense, so let’s play on their strength of keeping this a low scoring game.
ATSDatabase Tip: When WINNIPEG team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand; The UNDER is 12-3-0 for the Blue Bombers in this spot.

Forecast: Winnipeg 24 Hamilton 14

Calgary 54.5 vs. B.C.Lions -10.5
Pick: UNDER 54.5
Ron’s Comment: The Stampeders are coming off a double jeopardy here, as they lost to the last place team Hamilton Tiger Cats last weekend and lost their starting QB Henri Burris to injury in the dying seconds of the game in which he was marching his team for a score. Now, when you look at the B.C.Lions, they are coming off an emotional division last minute win last weekend vs. Saskatchewan, in which tempers were at a all time high for both teams. The line opened at -7.0 and the Burris injury news raised this line to -10.5. The Lions are in a classic letdown spot here vs. the Stampeders, but it’s hard to put your faith and money onto a QB like former Oregon Ducks standout Akili Smith, when he’s got no CFL experience and he’s heading into the Lions den this weekend. I would recommend you don’t touch the side on this game, as the Lions could be flat and the Stamps could have allot of 2 and outs. Play the UNDER.
ATSDatabase Tip: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as a Home team -After a division game - Coming off a 1 game over; The UNDER is 14-3-0 for the Lions in this spot since 1996.

Forecast: B.C.Lions 31 Calgary 7

Ron’s CFL Record:
5* CFL BEST BET Record: 5-7-1 ATS
1* CFL Record: 24-19 ATS
Straight up Forecast: 31-16-1 SU

Thanks for helping post plays.

GL

dino · Sep 27, 2007

Digeze said:
Thursday
MEMPHIS @ ARKANSAS STATE 7:00 PM EST

PLAY ON: MEMPHIS (+) PTS

THIS IS A COMP PLAY !!! PURE LOCK ONLY RELEASES PLAYS ON SATURDAY ( 4-0 THIS YEAR- 18-4 SINCE LAST YEAR !!!)

Service Plays 9/27/07

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