Is there a proper way to hedge this bet?

roach23 · Sep 30, 2007

So I'm sitting on a Phillies to win the NL East at 4-1.

Normally i'd just put some on the Nats so i could lock up some definite profit. But with the ties and possible tiebreaker games...is there a proper way to hedge my bet to ensure i end up making some loot of this?

Timetopay · Sep 30, 2007

Have some balls and let it ride.

Jman gave up a lot for the freedom of guys like you. Dont let him down!!!

roach23 · Sep 30, 2007

Timetopay said:
Have some balls and let it ride.

Jman gave up a lot for the freedom of guys like you. Dont let him down!!!

I was thinking about that...this bet was a LOCK of a loser 2 weeks ago...so its kinda like i have a freeroll. but then again...since i do have a shot of winning, i might as well collect something if i can.

MIKEY.1TIME · Sep 30, 2007

i dont know how much you have riding, but if you bet short money on the nats and mets and you;
A: win both bets but lose east bet

B: lose both bets but win east bet
c: if you split, you probably wont lose on the bets because the juice should almost offset and you can still hedge the playoff game.

i could be missing something

Ego74 · Sep 30, 2007

Roach, you got a book that has Live Betting??

If so, you can always hedge through out the games

cutacrossshorty · Sep 30, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
but if you bet short money on the nats and mets and you;

The only way Philly loses the NL East today is if they lose and the Mets win. He could play a Mets/Nats parlay for some amount. If it losses, either the the Phillies win the division or there will be a playoff and thus another hedge opportunity.

roach23 · Sep 30, 2007

Ego74 said:
Roach, you got a book that has Live Betting??

If so, you can always hedge through out the games

I do. Good suggestion. Only problem is that I'm gonna be at the bar watching the games.

MIKEY.1TIME · Sep 30, 2007

cut across shorty said:
The only way Philly loses the NL East today is if they lose and the Mets win. He could play a Mets/Nats parlay for some amount. If it losses, either the the Phillies win the division or there will be a playoff and thus another hedge opportunity.

that works but you could be hedging twice which depending on the original bet might be too costly

FatTony · Sep 30, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
that works but you could be hedging twice which depending on the original bet might be too costly

Exactly. You might as well ride it out at 4-1.

dmmd98 · Sep 30, 2007

Welcome Back lock city, good luck to you Phils today.

cutacrossshorty · Sep 30, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
that works but you could be hedging twice which depending on the original bet might be too costly

With the parlay, you're betting less to win more than if you play 2 straight wagers. Also, I believe I heard that a playoff would take place at Philly. If so, you might be able to get the mets at '+' dollars in that game.

Anyway, it's just a suggestion. I don't bet to hedge, so I would probably just stand pat. However, this situation is one that I would consider hedging and if I did, I would go the parlay route.

MIKEY.1TIME · Sep 30, 2007

cut across shorty said:
With the parlay, you're betting less to win more than if you play 2 straight wagers. Also, I believe I heard that a playoff would take place at Philly. If so, you might be able to get the mets at '+' dollars in that game.

2 bets but if you lose them both you made your money on the east equaling 1 hedge, if you split its really no bet because the juice will basicaslly even itself out equaling no hedge. if you win both you make money there but lose the prop bet eualing 1 hedge. there is no chance of losing 2 hedge bets- i think lol

roach23 · Sep 30, 2007

dmmd98 said:
Welcome Back lock city, good luck to you Phils today.

thanks and thanks :103631605

aclv1 · Sep 30, 2007

take the mets and lay 2-1

you could win mets and phillies

mets lose and phillies lose you will still 2-1 to work with on tomorrows game( worst case)

actually i am in the same situation and this is what i am doing.

MIKEY.1TIME · Sep 30, 2007

roach, how much is your prop wager?

aclv1 · Sep 30, 2007

i got 6 dimes total on mine and i went through hell the last 10 days ..i cant wait for this shit to be over .i am having a heart attack.

roach23 · Sep 30, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
roach, how much is your prop wager?

2 bills. nothing that's gonna make or break me.

cutacrossshorty · Sep 30, 2007

MIKEY.1TIME said:
2 bets but if you lose them both you made your money on the east equaling 1 hedge, if you split its really no bet because the juice will basicaslly even itself out equaling no hedge. if you win both you make money there but lose the prop bet eualing 1 hedge. there is no chance of losing 2 hedge bets- i think lol

In the event of a split, the straight wagers are the better play. If both lose, the parlay is the much better play. If both win, about equal depending on the amount of the parlay.

For example, a $100 parlay would return somewhere around $350.
You would have to basically risk $350 to win $350 on 2 straight wagers (assumming the 2 games are given the same weight).

If you split, you break even on the straight wagers and you lose $100 on the parlay. That's a difference of $100 in favor of the straight wagers.

If you lose both, you lose $350 on the straight wagers and you lose $100 on the parlay. That's a difference of $250 in favor of the parlay.

As stated, if they both win it's a wash.

Based on this, I conclude the parlay is the better option.

ILMW · Sep 30, 2007

Two words roach

Jamie Moyer

Need i say more, two words yesterday

Adam Eaton

fhmesq44 · Sep 30, 2007

Just bet the Nats today, don't play the Mets.

Scenarios:

Phils win (-100), Mets win = -100 and hedge again tomorrow by playing NYM
Phils win (-100), Mets lose (+400 on Phils to win division) = +300
Phils lose (+200), Mets win (-100 on Phils to win division) = +100
Phils lose (+200), Mets lose = +200 and hedge again tomorrow