Service Plays 10/1/07

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"We're talking proud...we're talking Buffalo"
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Karl Garrett Free Pick



Today's Complimentary Selection
Jake Peavy leads the National League in wins. He leads the National League in ERA, but unless he pitches all 9 innings tonight, I do not think he is going to get to the 20 win mark.

Colorado is as hot as they come winning 13 of their final 14 to force this one game showdown, and they did sweep all 3 off of San Diego just over a week ago at Petco Park. Included is a win in the game Peavy started, as Jake pitched 7 solid innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits while he K'd 8 Rockies along the way. It didn't matter, as Colorado outlasted San Diego in 14 innings that night.

Home field means a lot to the Rockies who boast one of the better records in the bigs in their home park.

Josh Fogg has been around the block, and he has won some mighty big games for Colorado this season.

Gotta take the value and the home underdog tonight boys!

3♦ COLORADO
(
on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis
 

"We're talking proud...we're talking Buffalo"
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Drew Gordon Free Pick


Complimentary Selection Split my Bonus Plays Sunday, with winner coming on the Packers over the Vikings 23-16, and loser coming on Dolphins falling to Raiders 35-17. Now
206-180-4 over my L390 Bonus Play releases!

While the public may want to make it as simple as Peavy is pitching, therefore the Padres win, that would be a big mistake and here's why:

The Rockies are hottest team in baseball right now, winners of 13 of their last 14 games! They've got more than enough firepower to challenge Peavy, scoring an NL best 172 runs in September! Not to mention their top-3 hitters, Holliday, Atkins and Helton are on absolute fire right now... Make no mistake, they'll challenge the Padres ace early and often!

As hot as the Rockies have been, the Padres have been disappointing to say the least, dropping two heart-breaking losses to the Brewers that got them in this position in the first place. Was it a good move to rest Peavy? Yes. Can he beat the Rockies by himself? NO, as we saw the last time he faced them, pitching 7 strong innings, allowing 1 run, but the Padres eventually lost 2-1!

The issue with the Padres has been their offense, which is average at best. San Diego is batting just .246 against righties on the season, and their about to face one of the Rockies more consistent arms throughout September in Josh Fogg. He's went 3-0 last month, and is 1-0 with a 3.78 ERA over his last 3 starts, including 6 2/3 shutout innings at the Dodgers in his last one!

Bottom line, not only are the Rockies playing better baseball overall, swinging the bats better, and playing at home, where they're 50-31 on the season, but Josh Fogg has been pitching well enough to keep this Padres offense at bay, while the hot-hitting Rockies work on Peavy. Grab the plus money with the Rockies in this one-game playoff for the NL wild card!

Take Colorado behind Fogg over San Diego in this NL West showdown.

2? COLORADO

On a 1? to 5? Scale
 

"We're talking proud...we're talking Buffalo"
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Michael Cannon
Complimentary Selection MONDAY'S FIRST PLAY

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p>









A split on my freebies yesterday brings my record to <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:date Year="2001" Day="14" Month="9">14-9-1</st1:date> with my last 24 overall Bonus Plays. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Take the over in the Monday night game between the Patriots and Bengals.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
There figures to be no shortage of offense in this matchup, as the Pats have a plethora of talent in Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth and Laurence Maroney. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
They should be salivating at the prospects of facing this Bengals defense, which ranks fourth worst in the league. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
New England has scored exactly 38 points in each game this year and has posted a score in every quarter of the season. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Their consistency on offense is awesome, but they’ll be going against a Bengals team that isn’t too bad offensively themselves.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Carson Palmer leads a dangerous passing attack that features Chad Johnson and T. J. Houshmandzadeh, perhaps the best wide receiving tandem in the NFL. <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
The Bengals will be able to score some points tonight as well, so this posted total may be in jeopardy of going over before halftime.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
Take the over tonight for your free winner.

3? OVER
<o:p> </o:p>
On a 1? to 5? basis
</o:p>
 

mtx

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Lenny Del Genio MLB
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Oct 1 2007 7:35PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: Play on the Rockies at 7:35 ET. The Padres may have MLB's best pitcher (arguably) on the mound in Jake Peavy but the Rockies own all the momentum. The Padres were one strike away from clinching the NL's wild card Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee and blew it, They then scored three first-inning runs in Sunday's game (a win would have clinched again!) and lost that game, 11-6. Now, instead of heading to Philadelphia to meet the Phillies, the Padres must fly to Colorado to take on MLB's hottest team. The Rockies ended September by winning 13 of their last 14 games and the team's 71-46 mark since May 22 is the best in the NL, with only the Yankees doing better in all of MLB (Yanks went 74-45 in that time span). I won't repeat Peavy's incredible pitching stats from '07 (especially his road numbers!), because they are awesome. However, I will add that Fogg has been very solid for the Rockies down the stretch, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1). Peavy's a right-hander and the Rockies are plus-$2,940 versus righties this year, going 37-19 against them here at Coors. Take Colorado as a 15* play.
 

mtx

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Lenny Del Genio's 20 Total for NE/CIN
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Oct 1 2007 8:30PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Play on the Pats/Benagls to go Under at 8:30 ET. Everyone is anticipating a shootout in tonight's game but here's a take you may not have heard? The last thing either team wants is a shootout. Both teams have explosive offense stars, meaning both defenses will be guarding against the big play. Brady (79.5%) and Palmer (64.0%) are both very accurate passers and when passes get completed, the clock doesn't stop! With both teams playing a little deeper, expect some long, 'clock-eating' drives! I also like Cincinnati RB Kenny Watson, who will be replacing the injured Rudi Johnson. Expect the Bengals to allow him to establish the run. In two of the Pats' first three games, they have benefited from injuries to the other team's starting QBs (Pennington and Losman). In those two cases, the replacements were not able to sustain drives, giving New England more possessions than usual, plus often starting with excellent field-position, as well. That WON'T be the case here! NE/Cin Under is my 20* MNF Total of the Month!
 

mtx

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Michael Cannon,
Monday's Plays:

15 Dime –

PATRIOTS
Lay the points with the Patriots tonight when they travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals.
I don’t need to waste time here praising the job the Patriots have done through the first three weeks of the season. You already know all about it.
But I do need to point out a few unbelievable tidbits they’ve accomplished so far.
Start with how the Pats have punted only four times all season. Then there’s Tom Brady, who has averaged just six incompletions per game through the first three weeks. How about Randy Moss and his 400+ receiving yards and five touchdowns?
Now they get to face a Bengals defense that can’t even begin to hang with the offensive precision that Brady directs.
The Pats will attack every weakness the Bengals have shown through the first three weeks, and they are too numerous to list here. It’s what Bill Belichick does and there’s nobody in the league better at it.
The Bengals are going to have to hope that Carson Palmer can trade scores with New England, because there’s no way they’re going to slow the Pats down defensively.
Since that seems unlikely without the services of Rudi Johnson, I feel 100% confident in laying this number, even on the road.
Cincinnati is a woeful 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a home dog.
Lay the points with New England as they run away with this one in Cincinnati.

5 Dime –

ROCKIES +1 ½ RUN LINE
Take the Rockies plus the run and a half tonight in their one-game playoff versus San Diego.
I just can’t go against this momentum that the Rockies have right now, but there’s the matter of beating San Diego’s ace, Jake Peavy.
I have my doubts as to whether or not Colorado can win this game straight up, but I am convinced this is going to be a one-run game either way.
Peavy has been great for San Diego this year, going 19-6 with a 2.46 ERA. He’s 3-1 over his last five starts with a 3.90 ERA. His lone no-decision in that stretch was against the Rockies, a game in which Colorado won, 2-1.
The Rockies will counter with Josh Fogg and he’s been solid down the stretch. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA over his last six starts. Fogg beat the Padres on September 9, going five innings and allowing just one run in the 4-2 win.
With all the mojo the Rockies have shown down the stretch, take them plus the run and a half against the Padres tonight.
 

mtx

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TOTALS 4 U

PADRES/ROCKIES UNDER 9


GAMBLERS DATA


MONDAY COMP PLAY :

Padres-Rockies Under 9 -105

Bonus Play Record : 807 - 461 65% (5-2 last week)
 

mtx

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Indian Cowboy

Monday NFL

New England @ Cincy

Is this another opportunity for the Patriots to show their dominance and to play with a chip on their shoulder after the harsh punishment that came down on Coach B? I think so. Humorous that the Pats have scored 38 points in each of their last 3 victories. The Bengals defense is horrible and continues to be overrated each year as this team miraculously gets overrated each year. Each year, they hear the cries of going dancing into the playoffs, and each year they fall short. In essence, they are like the NFC's St. Louis Rams of a couple years ago and even last year when there is so much expectations, but all that results are one L behind another L, behind another L. The total opened at 52 and has moved up to 53.5 in most places with some sprinkles of 54 in some places as well. The spread also opened up at -7 and has moved up to -7.5 and I've even seem some -8 and-8.5 earlier in the week until it has been bought down a bit of late. Rudi Johnson is not expected to play but he hasn't done all that well anywhere this year so it could be useful for the Bengals to see something different. New England has covered the last 5 ballgames from last year and are 3-0 ATS including covering a huge spread against the Bills last time out. NE has covered the last 2 years as the last 2 games totaled 51 and 36 and both of those games were on the road. This is going to be fun watching the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league in New England hit the road to face the #3 offense and 30th ranked defense in the league. I think this game goes NE and the Under.

not paid premium, just a lean
 

The King
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ANY WOLKOSKY MILAN PLAYS YET FOR MONDAY??????????????????

:think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2: :think2:
 

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