Question for Hitman26

LarryLegend · Oct 9, 2007

In another post you say, "58% winners is a pipe dream against a -110 spread over the course of 1k plays or more. Hell 55% is almost impossible unless you are getting rogue lines. "

If you say hitting 55% is almost impossible, wouldn't it then mean that you could never win betting on basketball and football except for ML bets or maybe chase systems? Or are you saying you can't use straight unit bets. You have to use different unit sizes?

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

he said that in my thread......... i say differently........ i say there are plenty of people that can hit (56% or a little better) long term... the reason they are losers is because they do not know HOW to bet..

its just as important or even more important to know How to bet, than WHO to bet..... i know that will fly over a lot of heads but it is true...

the mismanagement of money is the ultimate downfall for most gamblers and why the lifetime losers are close to 90%........... chasing losses is probably the chief cause of this...... that and the fact that most do not consider this a business.... they have no bankroll, they dont realize many of the important aspects of being a winner.......

now im going to show Mr Hitman that it can be done and im going to show him in a very humble and civil manner.......

LarryLegend · Oct 9, 2007

Yes You have a very nice thread going there, that is why I didn't post this question there. I didn't want to clutter it up with controversy. Which this question shouldn't really raise.

But I was just thinking, if we can't achieve 55% on a -110, what business do we have betting?

I guess you could bet a bunch of one unit plays, and then bet some 10 units plays. But that in itself has been an topic of arguements for years.

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

larry, they give you 50% winners by drawing out of a hat... of course you can hit 55%....... im going to show you better than that..

a monkey can pull teams out of a hat and eventually he will hit 50% winners over a big enough sample of plays..

the emotional side of this business is what makes people losers....

Hitman26 · Oct 9, 2007

LarryLegend said:
In another post you say, "58% winners is a pipe dream against a -110 spread over the course of 1k plays or more. Hell 55% is almost impossible unless you are getting rogue lines. "

If you say hitting 55% is almost impossible, wouldn't it then mean that you could never win betting on basketball and football except for ML bets or maybe chase systems? Or are you saying you can't use straight unit bets. You have to use different unit sizes?

Larry:

I have never seen any poster hit over 55% over the course of 1k plays or more against a consensus average line for my 5 years on the forum. My point is that the books are so damn sharp that it is tough to get that much of an edge. I think most pros shoot for 53% winners but with the bonuses, scalps, line shopping, reduced vig and having a knack for knowing which way the line is going to move those guys can get it up to 55-58% over the course of 1k plays or more. Fishhead and Iceman would probably give you better figures than I can but I am guessing.

Also 53% winners is enough to win over the course of a season against a -110 line (53w -47L -4.7 vig = +1.3 units). You don't have to hit 55 to break even.

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

Larry,
I responded to this in SSI threads.

I won close to 300 units hitting 53.8% from September 1st 2006 to September 1st 2007.

You can make a ton of money if you have heavy volume. My goal for the next 12 months is to continue to increase my volume with more outs, putting in more time and looking in other spots for plays in the sports I bet.

I do know if I increase my win pct to 55% I double my profits but looking back at 10,000 bets I am not sure that is possibile. If every bet is +ev than the more bets the better. If you go to the Classics forum there is a good discussion on this from a year or so ago.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=373488 Here it is. Check it out.

sportsbet · Oct 9, 2007

Iceman said:
Larry,
I responded to this in SSI threads.

You can make a ton of money if you have heavy volume. My goal for the next 12 months is to continue to increase my volume with more outs, putting in more time and looking in other spots for plays in the sports I bet.

It can be done...this is gold as far as advice goes. I was making the most money when I had the most exposure (outs)...and at the peak it was between 15-20 books. You also have to do a ton of research on your outs and find out who controls the lines (i.e. moving a number on $$$ vs air...I can't tell you how many times books will move lines because someone else moved a line rather than on their own take!) You don't want to be with umbrella books either. You want to find as many individuals as possible (which isn't easy but can be done!)

sb

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

sportsbet said:
It can be done...this is gold as far as advice goes. I was making the most money when I had the most exposure (outs)...and at the peak it was between 15-20 books. You also have to do a ton of research on your outs and find out who controls the lines (i.e. moving a number on $$$ vs air...I can't tell you how many times books will move lines because someone else moved a line rather than on their own take!) You don't want to be with umbrella books either. You want to find as many individuals as possible (which isn't easy but can be done!)

sb

What can be done?
58% over 2,000 plays?

Not sure what you are agreeing/disagreeing with.

Sorry I just dont agree but that isnt a bad thing.

sportsbet · Oct 9, 2007

Ice...this is what I meant by can be done (55% over a decent sized sample) and the advice from you being gold was increasing the outs, increasing the volume and looking for spots:

SSI said:
larry, they give you 50% winners by drawing out of a hat... of course you can hit 55%....... im going to show you better than that..

a monkey can pull teams out of a hat and eventually he will hit 50% winners over a big enough sample of plays..

the emotional side of this business is what makes people losers....

I don't have a problem with people that don't agree with me (there are plenty out there!) I think what worked for me probably doesn't work for everybody but I'm content with where I was and where I am $ and % wise lifetime.

sb

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

sportsbet said:
Ice...this is what I meant by can be done (55% over a decent sized sample):

I don't have a problem with people that don't agree with me (there are plenty out there!) I think what worked for me probably doesn't work for everybody but I'm content with where I was and where I am $ and % wise lifetime.

sb

No not at all arguing with you. Just asking a question. Not sure we are on the same page. I think 55% (though extremly difficult) would be the highest after 2,000 plays.

Some were saying 57-58% and that figure I disagree with over 2,000 plays. That is the one I have up for debate not 55% (which I still think is very tough). :103631605

sportsbet · Oct 9, 2007

Iceman said:
No not at all arguing with you. Just asking a question. Not sure we are on the same page. I think 55% (though extremly difficult) would be the highest after 2,000 plays.

Some were saying 57-58% and that figure I disagree with over 2,000 plays. That is the one I have up for debate not 55% (which I still think is very tough).

Gotcha! Sorry for misunderstanding...I'm with you on 55% over 2k being tough enough as it is! Would love to see someone here beat the numbers longterm...SSI or otherwise.

sb

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

sportsbet said:
Gotcha! Sorry for misunderstanding...I'm with you on 55% over 2k being tough enough as it is! Would love to see someone here beat the numbers longterm...SSI or otherwise.

sb

I hit right around 53.8% over 10,000 plays last year. I dont think 55% is out of the question and if I do the same thing this year I would double my profits by just increasing my win pct a little over 1% so that is the long range goal/dream for me.

The thing with 58% is that it is 12% ROI and that can make a man really rich, really fast and not sure it is doable. Hopefully he (or anyone) can pull it off.

sportsbet · Oct 9, 2007

Iceman said:
I hit right around 53.8% over 10,000 plays last year. I dont think 55% is out of the question and if I do the same thing this year I would double my profits by just increasing my win pct a little over 1% so that is the long range goal/dream for me.

The thing with 58% is that it is 12% ROI and that can make a man really rich, really fast and not sure it is doable. Hopefully he (or anyone) can pull it off.

Yeah no kidding. I know he mentioned taking emotion out of the equation and that's been done a lot via the computer but you still don't see a major improvment in the numbers even with someone betting strictly based off formulas (not saying anyone is doing that...but it's been attempted without success that I've seen.)

Good luck to whoever is trying it and hopefully someone cracks through.

sb

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

ok, you guys finally did it....... im awake now........

where is the new mod WVU and his challenge.......

you guys act like nobody here can beat a (-1.10)........ plenty can beat it.. yeah they beat it and still lose money..

ive already committed to 2000 plays, against a (-1.10)... now let the chips fall where they may......... going to play out like a soap opera..

they beat the crap out of me last night...

NJ/Ott Under 5.......... empty netter with 30 seconds left to ruin a push..

Edm/Det Under 5.5........ another empty netter with 34 seconds left to change a W to an L...

Dal/Buff Under 45.5.......... everyone should have seen this... no need to explain, at least dallas added another FG and won, so it didnt hurt as much.

clev/nyy Over 10...... should have won, then felt lucky to Push.....

now lets just say, they owe me a couple wins.......

sportsbet · Oct 9, 2007

Hey it's not like we're not rooting for you on this one SSI...it's just a tough road ahead.

hola

sb

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

for sure, there will be no crying if i fall short and only hit (57%)... all taken in good fun and hopefully some profits along the way.....

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

SSI said:
ok, you guys finally did it....... im awake now........

where is the new mod WVU and his challenge.......

you guys act like nobody here can beat a (-1.10)........ plenty can beat it.. yeah they beat it and still lose money..

ive already committed to 2000 plays, against a (-1.10)... now let the chips fall where they may......... going to play out like a soap opera..

they beat the crap out of me last night...

NJ/Ott Under 5.......... empty netter with 30 seconds left to ruin a push..

Edm/Det Under 5.5........ another empty netter with 34 seconds left to change a W to an L...

Dal/Buff Under 45.5.......... everyone should have seen this... no need to explain, at least dallas added another FG and won, so it didnt hurt as much.

clev/nyy Over 10...... should have won, then felt lucky to Push.....

now lets just say, they owe me a couple wins.......[/quote/]

What is challenge? I will take this one all day long.

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

ask your fellow mod, wvu........ its his gig...

ask him, if the guy flacapper, quit on him.... i havent seen a play in a few days......

Iceman · Oct 9, 2007

SSI said:
ask your fellow mod, wvu........ its his gig...

ask him, if the guy flacapper, quit on him.... i havent seen a play in a few days......

not trying to get into. Just fill me in. What was the latest one?

SSI · Oct 9, 2007

wvu challenge...... 60% over 100 plays, against a (-1.10) basically....... he puts up 200 to 100......

he is supposed to have flacapper doing it right now but i havent seen anything out of them in a few days...

im going to challenge him for 3 nfl hoodie sweatshirts, against my 100... not worried about a monetary challenge........ i may have to wait for the nba as alot of my nhl plays are a little higher juice and some are lower.. i shoot for the (-1.10) average......