Last 16 NFL games lined at 50 or higher have went under 15 out of the last 16 times

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Rx Wizard
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Just read this and found it interesting.

Only 1 game lined that high this week, New England and Dallas and I am sure that number will rise as game nears.
 

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Last year was boring in this regard...only 2 games lined at 50+. There were a combined 35 in the 2 years previous.
 

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I agree, seems to keep climbing...public expecting a shootout.
 
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If your betting the under I think it is smart to wait for this game's total to rise all day Sunday (IMO).

Very true, but I am simply laying off of this game. Too hard to cap IMO and there are tons more plays out there to be had with an easier handicapping curve.
 

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this goes hand in hand with all the rule changes that have been made that are under-friendly.

im always amazed at how many guys can just blindly play overs, overs, overs every weekend in the nfl.

sure its exciting to root for points. and sure on paper teams like dallas and new england and indianapolis can move the ball up and down the field.

but it is becoming VERY difficult to get games into the mid- to high-40s in the nfl. and the 50s are even tougher.

one reason is because 50 is an average total for a college game. and bettors see a lot of games in ncaa that are lined at 55, 60, hell even 65 or 67 nowadays. and those games go over a good number of the time.

then they put their heads on the pillow, wake up 10 hours later, and expect nfl games to have the same kind of scoring.

sure the object of the game is the same. but the ncaa and nfl are worlds apart.

every rule in the ncaa is set up for overs.
the overtime is one of them.
the clock stopping on 1st downs is another.

with the nfl, even passing teams arent locks for overs because the clock never TRULY stops unless there is an incomplete pass. even when the ball is run out of bounds or a guy is tackled out of bounds, the clock will stop for a moment but it gets rolling again shortly after that.

the playclock is longer.
the clock is wound after a running play precedes a penalty.
the list goes on.

and i really believe that the amount of college games going over is causing guys to mistakenly push these nfl totals up and up to numbers that are almost unattainable.
 
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this goes hand in hand with all the rule changes that have been made that are under-friendly.

im always amazed at how many guys can just blindly play overs, overs, overs every weekend in the nfl.

sure its exciting to root for points. and sure on paper teams like dallas and new england and indianapolis can move the ball up and down the field.

but it is becoming VERY difficult to get games into the mid- to high-40s in the nfl. and the 50s are even tougher.

one reason is because 50 is an average total for a college game. and bettors see a lot of games in ncaa that are lined at 55, 60, hell even 65 or 67 nowadays. and those games go over a good number of the time.

then they put their heads on the pillow, wake up 10 hours later, and expect nfl games to have the same kind of scoring.

sure the object of the game is the same. but the ncaa and nfl are worlds apart.

every rule in the ncaa is set up for overs.
the overtime is one of them.
the clock stopping on 1st downs is another.

with the nfl, even passing teams arent locks for overs because the clock never TRULY stops unless there is an incomplete pass. even when the ball is run out of bounds or a guy is tackled out of bounds, the clock will stop for a moment but it gets rolling again shortly after that.

the playclock is longer.
the clock is wound after a running play precedes a penalty.
the list goes on.

and i really believe that the amount of college games going over is causing guys to mistakenly push these nfl totals up and up to numbers that are almost unattainable.

right on the money. this is why i might take 2 overs the entire nfl season. its under or nothing for me.
 

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threads like these are why iceman is a great mod, not that he wasn't a great poster before already
 

Rx. Senior
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You would have to be NUTS to take this game over! I mean, maybe you like it over, but just pass on the game in that case. There are MUCH better options out there than to take this game over
 

We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time
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I gotta start bettings these crazy trends

Lions lost 21 in a row vs Washington last week and Capuano lost a million in a row at one point this year
 

WVU

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I much prefer betting unders in any sport. At least you will be winning your bet at halftime 99% of the time. There is never a worse feeling than needing 30 points in the last quarter of an NFL game.
 

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I much prefer betting unders in any sport. At least you will be winning your bet at halftime 99% of the time. There is never a worse feeling than needing 30 points in the last quarter of an NFL game.

Unless it is the Bears/Lions 2 weeks ago..I agree..and I needed every one of those points
 

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