Illinois @ Iowa +4.5 with in-depth analysis

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I have recieved numerous inquires(mostly by email) for me to give out more selections with ANALYSIS as I did last week in the offshore forum............thus I will do so here.


Had Florida Atlantic and Florida both covering the number last week and of course the relatively easy winner with the Bills on MNF which we discussed at length about here in the offshore forum.

This week my thoughts are concerning the ILLINOIS visiting the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium.

First off, it is always rather difficult in teams of handicapping a game that involves a team where your heart lies greatly, in this case Iowa with me.........but this is the game that to me presents the biggest possible edge for myself since I've viewed both teams quite a bit this year.

To begin with, this fits the BILLS MNF game in many facets. Lets look at two of those first off.

1. The Illinois, much like DAL, is a very good football team, but overrated at this time much like the Cowboys I believe still are to most.

2. The Hawkeyes, much like the Bills, are being crucified by not only the national media, but by many of their loyal fans as well, making this team underrated at this time........or better stated, not as bad as many think they are.

Now having said that, the Hawks are reeling in major injuries as they have lost their top THREE recievers since game one of the season.......two WR and TE...........and know their highly touted MLB Klinkenburg is ?? for the game this Saturday.

Let's get to my opinion/play here.

I like IOWA +4.5 and hopefully more and here is my reasoning other than what I stated above..............

1. WAGERLINE is showing 70% leaning towards the Fighting Illini in this affair.

2. The game opened at -3.5 and is up to 4.5 now.

3. The Illini are a misearable 3-19 on the road in their last 21 games.

4. Next is something that came to me last evening as I was thinking of this game and that is how many players are from Illinios on the Iowa roster and viceversa. Well I did the research and the result is what I expected. The Illinois has one player from the state of Iowa.........whereas the Hawkeyes have thirteen players from the state of Illinois. However small, I do believe this plays a factor emotionally in this game and is something John Q. Bettor would not even consider----edge to us.

5. If Iowa has any strength, it is their ability to stop the run..........and this is exactly what the talented running game will attempt against Iowa. I certainly do not like the fact that Iowas MLB may be out in this game, as he is a very good one. Iowa still has a very good front 6-7 on defense.........many with NFL potential. A concern here is the ILLINOIS QB.......as he can scramble and in the past these types of caused Iowa trouble in the past few years and this is something to be leary of throughout this game.

6.

IOWA CITY, IA - Former Iowa all-Americans Dallas Clark and Bob Sanders have been selected Iowa's honorary captains for Saturday's contest against Illinois. The Hawkeyes face the Illini in a televised game with kickoff set for 11:02 a.m. in sold out Kinnick Stadium.
Both Sanders and Clark are starters with the defending Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts. Sanders is a defensive back and Clark a tight end.
Clark, a three-year letterman (2000-2002), was a consensus all-American with the Hawkeyes. He was named winner of the 2002 John Mackey Award as the top tight end in collegiate football. He is still 21st on Iowa's all-time receiving charts with 1,281 yards. He was an important part of Iowa's 2002 Big Ten championship team. He caught 81 career passes and had eight touchdowns.
Clark has been just as important to the world champion Colts as their starting tight end. He was selected as the 24th pick in the first round of the 2003 NFL draft.
Sanders lettered four times (2000-03) with the Hawkeyes as a defensive back from Erie, PA. He was an all-American as a senior. He was also a team captain and MVP during his final season with the Hawkeyes. He was a three-time member of the first all-Big Ten team. He still ranks ninth in career tackles at Iowa with 348. He had seven career interceptions and 16 tackles for loss. He's considered, pound-for-pound, one of the hardest hitters in Iowa football history. Sanders took his talents to the NFL where he was selected as the 44th pick in the 2004 draft (the first pick of the Colts). He was named to the AFC's Pro Bowl team last year and is considered one of the most valuable defensive players in the NFL. <!-- STORY AD BEGINS HERE -->


Both Clark and Sanders will accompany the Iowa captains to the center of the field for the pre-game coin-flip. They will also be with the Hawkeyes on the sidelines and in the locker room before and after the game.


If I have information to pass along before game time, will do so here.
 

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If not mistaken, this game will be televised nationally on ESPN or ESPN 2.
 

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This is a money game (bowl wise) for the hawkeyes.
At 0-3 in the big 10 and 2-4 overall, this is a money game, if the hawkeyes have any shot. With a win here they could still beat WMU, MSU, minny and msu at home be 6-6 and travel. Home fied in the big 10 is huge, their season is on the line. NW who lost to Duke is winnable as well, but this is a big time MONEY game and the ISU loss hurts.


<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Oct. 20</TD><TD class=namedata>at Purdue</TD><TD class=data>11:00am</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Oct. 27</TD><TD class=namedata>Michigan State</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 3</TD><TD class=namedata>at Northwestern</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 10</TD><TD class=namedata>Minnesota</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 17</TD><TD class=namedata>Western Michigan</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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it is also "BLACKOUT SATURDAY" at legendary Kinnick Stadium!


I will be blacked out in other ways than wearing a Tshirt.
 

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VERY IMPORTANT REMINDER

This is only one game of hundreds you and I will wager on this season and the years to come and has no real greater significance than most others just because I'm giving my anlysis here.

Do not wager this game thinking it will cover 90%+ of the time or even 60%+.............as it will not.

I do however believe this presents a 54-60% win possiblity longterm when COMBINED WITH OTHER games wagered of which 99% of the time are of the same confidence factor.

If wagering this particular game, keep this in mind and bet with your head, not over it.

Actually, this news matter is for informational purposes only. :)
 

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This is a money game (bowl wise) for the hawkeyes.
At 0-3 in the big 10 and 2-4 overall, this is a money game, if the hawkeyes have any shot. With a win here they could still beat WMU, MSU, minny and msu at home be 6-6 and travel. Home fied in the big 10 is huge, their season is on the line. NW who lost to Duke is winnable as well, but this is a big time MONEY game and the ISU loss hurts.


<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Oct. 20</TD><TD class=namedata>at Purdue</TD><TD class=data>11:00am</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Oct. 27</TD><TD class=namedata>Michigan State</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 3</TD><TD class=namedata>at Northwestern</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 10</TD><TD class=namedata>Minnesota</TD><TD class=data>TBA</TD><TD class=datacenter style="DISPLAY: none" align=middle></TD></TR><TR><TD class=data noWrap>Nov. 17</TD><TD class=namedata>Western Michigan</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Excellent, excellent point and one I was going to elude to later.

Remember when we spoke of 1-3 NFL teams being motivated and thus performing well against the spread..........this sort of fits the bill here, as this is a make or break game for Iowas season in all aspects.
 

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NOTE FWIW---Do not like this game near as much as the Bills last Monday........but still a strong feeling for the Hawks in this spot.
 

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Thanks for the Pick Fisher...

Where do you see this line at, before gametime?
 

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Yeah good call FIsh. I like the extra value of the line moving up. Hopefully it will creep a littel higher. G/L
 

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thinkin it might be worth the try.... $50 ml parlay to win $1,160...iowa/wisky/purdue. who knows, ive blown 50 on worse shit
 

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thinkin it might be worth the try.... $50 ml parlay to win $1,160...iowa/wisky/purdue. who knows, ive blown 50 on worse shit

That doesn't seem bad, for the value.

Dog ML's hit more than people think.



Wake/Rockies ML 2 teamer would have been a nice payout, Just didn't have the balls to take it.
 

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Iowa +6.5 at BET ED!!!


wow. I was happy taking 4 early in the week.

Ice, how is beted? do they deal dual lines? is this far off a common occurance? Do they generally have good underdog lines? Never heard much about them, but if they are off 2 points from the general concensus I am very interested.


BTW, goodluck hitting this Fish! Thanks for the reasoning.
 

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wow. I was happy taking 4 early in the week.

Ice, how is beted? do they deal dual lines? is this far off a common occurance? Do they generally have good underdog lines? Never heard much about them, but if they are off 2 points from the general concensus I am very interested.


BTW, goodluck hitting this Fish! Thanks for the reasoning.


I have liked them so far but have actually not beat them. There lines make SIA's look sharp. Hard to figure out but every 10 bets or so they will be way off on a game and generally it is a favorite they bump a point or two. Never have seen the dual lines there and have played there in the past but am honestly a lifetime loser there.
 

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I have liked them so far but have actually not beat them. There lines make SIA's look sharp. Hard to figure out but every 10 bets or so they will be way off on a game and generally it is a favorite they bump a point or two. Never have seen the dual lines there and have played there in the past but am honestly a lifetime loser there.

thanks Ice.... will look into them. So basically an underdog version of Pin....lol. they have their lean on bad dogs and somehow win vs their players while other books would payout. Eitherway, if the line is better from what I would have got elsewhere it cannot do me wrong.
 

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