Question on middling with 2 full points differential?

CalvinTy · Oct 14, 2007

I know I had collected this information somewhere, but can somebody re-post the percentages of whether a NFL game lands on a particular number?

I have a dilemma in where I can see a line at 2 different books for a 4pm game with a FULL 2 point differential and one at -105 juice. However, obviously the number "5" is a rarity so it's more of hitting the 4 *OR* 6 for a push & a win.

Book A; NE -4 -110
Book B; DAL +6 -105

Worth the math?

* CalvinTy

Doug · Oct 14, 2007

I'd do that one, but it's not awesome. I might pass now without NT. I posted it here once ( Ganchrow's data).

whalewager · Oct 14, 2007

id bet the dallas +6 and leave it at that

raiders72 · Oct 14, 2007

4 is around 3 %
6 is 3.4 %
5 around 1.5 %

Iceman · Oct 14, 2007

I would say it is barely profitbale longterm as 5 is a dead number.

Like someone else said the best move is too take the +6, as that number is best when the consensus line is around 4.5.

raiders72 · Oct 14, 2007

But can side on 4 and 6.

Iceman · Oct 14, 2007

raiders72 said:
But can side on 4 and 6.

Right but the math behind it is still barely profitable.

CalvinTy · Oct 14, 2007

Thanks for the feedback everyone. I had to go offline to the animal hospital as our cat had been lethargic and had very bad breath; turned out to be a very serious pus infection under his tongue that required immediate surgery & loss of 1/3 of his tongue. Depending on how the tongue recovers, we might have to put him to sleep this week pending the biopsy results.

Back to the thread, I decided to take small equal bets on both sides & not caring if I don't push/win. I felt it was worth it (not because of the dead "5" number, but because I could also PUSH/WIN on *either 4 or 6* which boosts the math "more" into my favor).

* CalvinTy

raiders72 · Oct 15, 2007

Sorry to hear that Calvin

Doug · Oct 15, 2007

I hope your Kitty recovers, Calvin. I'd sure miss mine.

ganchrow · Oct 15, 2007

Checking the line history, the "fair" market line at the time this was posted was about ±4½.

Using my half-point calculator, we see that NFL probabilities for a 4, 5, and 6 are about 3.0%, 1.7%, and 3.4% respectively.

Plugging in the prevailing market line of ±4½, we see that the net expected profit from the -4 -110 would be approximately -1.6% and from the +6 -105 would be approximately 4.5%.

To equalize losses on the outside of the middle, for every 1.0000 units bet at -110, one would be 0.9778 units at -105.

Hence ROI would be (-1.6% + 0.9778*4.5%)/1.9778 ≈ 1.42%

And expected return as % of value-at-risk would be (-1.6% + 0.9778*4.5%) / (1-0.9778*100/105) ≈ 40.72%.

Very sorry to hear about your cat, Calvin. We have two ourselves. My sympathies.