My brother is in a football pool

TomorrowsNewspaper · Oct 15, 2007

and I wanted to see what you guys think he should do. He has Atlanta +3 in tonights game. If he wins that game he wins $2500. A tie would be a loss.

Would you advise he take a polish middle, a moneyline wager on the NYGiants or some other method. He is not a big gambler and the entry was only $15 so he would like to lock up some sort of profit.

Remember, he really has atlanta at +2.5 because 3 would be a loss.

Thanks

jwblue · Oct 15, 2007

Tough call. Taking a chance on the polish middle when the line is 3 is a big risk. Giants moneyline seems the way to go.

He could take a chance with doing live betting somewhere online. Maybe the Falcons go up early.

IS

mike0187 · Oct 15, 2007

I would think definitely NO on going polish middle

NYG moneyline would give him a shot at winning both, Matchbook has a -214 and -216 out there. If you are funded or could get funded there, laying 1000 to win 467 would give him a $450 profit if NYG won and covered, a $1500 profit if Atlanta won, and a $2900 profit if NYG won by 1 or 2

TomorrowsNewspaper · Oct 15, 2007

mike0187 said:
I would think definitely NO on going polish middle

NYG moneyline would give him a shot at winning both, Matchbook has a -214 and -216 out there. If you are funded or could get funded there, laying 1000 to win 467 would give him a $450 profit if NYG won and covered, a $1500 profit if Atlanta won, and a $2900 profit if NYG won by 1 or 2

That is exactly the advice I gave him. Just wanted to see the RX sharps might come up with something I didnt think of like a teaser of some sort or something. (which I would be against I believe).

fhmesq44 · Oct 15, 2007

Either NYG money line or buy down to -2.5, guarantee himself about $500. 5dimes has NYG -4.5 right now, which is a big buy down (-3 is -155)

trytrytry · Oct 15, 2007

you dont have any room here...let it play out..dont play into a negative expectation wager to secure something. if you get the win $2500 COngrads! go get it done!

Budworth22 · Oct 15, 2007

Let it ride. Seriously, if he was stuck with the other side, I might not.

Budworth22 · Oct 15, 2007

trytrytry said:
you dont have any room here...let it play out..dont play into a negative expectation wager to secure something. if you get the win $2500 COngrads! go get it done!

Exactly.

fhmesq44 · Oct 15, 2007

remember, the guy doesn't gamble, so he knows or cares nothing about EV, he just wants money in his pocket. if it were a guy that gambled I would say let it ride, but not some guy that plays in his office work pool and nothing else.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Oct 15, 2007

fhmesq44 said:
remember, the guy doesn't gamble, so he knows or cares nothing about EV, he just wants money in his pocket. if it were a guy that gambled I would say let it ride, but not some guy that plays in his office work pool and nothing else.

Exactly. He emailed me last night and said he would hate to go 9-3-1 and make no money. The pool is $15 a week so he would at least like to get the $255 for the year back. I had the same thing happen to me a few weeks back and needed Philly on Monday night. Needless to say, I wish I hedged now.

He also has no offshore accounts, so if he sends money he could get a good bonus (and me a referral) and that in essense would lower his vig on the game. I told him matchbook originally but then added BetJamacia ( I really dont want him to have any problems getting the money out). Are there any real good bonuses at solid books right now?

fhmesq44 · Oct 15, 2007

Tomorrow's Newspaper said:
Exactly. He emailed me last night and said he would hate to go 9-3-1 and make no money. The pool is $15 a week so he would at least like to get the $255 for the year back. I had the same thing happen to me a few weeks back and needed Philly on Monday night. Needless to say, I wish I hedged now.

He also has no offshore accounts, so if he sends money he could get a good bonus (and me a referral) and that in essense would lower his vig on the game. I told him matchbook originally but then added BetJamacia ( I really dont want him to have any problems getting the money out). Are there any real good bonuses at solid books right now?

Don't get him gambling, just make the bet for him. Last thing you want is him money lining NYG and hitting the middle, he will be betting like crazy in a week.

TomorrowsNewspaper · Oct 15, 2007

good point. Also he would have to meet rollever requirements which would be a bad thing.

spreadbeater · Oct 15, 2007

TN,

What are your thoughts on the Boston/Cleveland game tonight?

flacapper · Oct 15, 2007

Better grab some Giants money cause Atlanta has no shot tonight.
If you just stick it will lose!!

fhmesq44 · Oct 16, 2007

what did he end up doing TN?

My brother is in a football pool

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