How do you know the difference between steam and a late move then? I thought your theory was always to watch a move.......say AZ -4.5, then when it jumps to AZ -6, find a book that still has AZ -4.5, then hit it. Now you are telling me you're fading these plays? I'd like to chat with you on email Ice, so shoot me an email out so I can reply to you. Thanks-Wolf
It is too beat the line move and that is why I said I didnt want to get all into this as it would confuse some. Maybe a better way to put it is too try and catch numbers at their apex.
I didnt say I was fading these plays. I said it was another thing I do. I am about volume, I have been running around 3% ROI on over 1,000 plays on average a month and this is something I added inot the mix.
The best way to look at this is to find a game that has moved enough to set up a PROFITABLE imaginary middle and now you would be buying back the other side. So if the game was +7 all week long and then on game day it just keep dropping and dropping and just before gametime it is -4.5 than grab the -4.5. Now leave it alone if you already have the +7 or you can try to middle it.
Remember a middle is bet where BOTH SIDES ARE +EV. This is why I say that I dont look at 1 game closely. It's about having all edge bets. You could have the same game as me and have the complete other side and be good to go in my eyes.
It is very possibile to be a winning bettor and bet the complete opposite sides in a moneyline sport and be ahead also. You see what I mean? I know that can be hard to understand but I think that explains it best to most that both sides can be a profitable LONGTERM if the numbers has moved enough. This is why looking at 1 game means nothing in the big scope of things.
