This one's not a 'true' play for me as I don't like lines that move *with* public opinion thru the week. That said, it's moving like a bandit during rush hour, I see, and SIA is hanging plus 6, Pinny still holding 4.5. Those factors resonate with me. So it's killing me right now not to take it.
I am, literally, looking for Fish's blessing to hop on board.
Gay, I know.
I am, literally, looking for Fish's blessing to hop on board.
Gay, I know.
ope:
If the line had opened at -7 and had dropped to -5.5, and the public was all over Atlanta, you guys would be beating down the door to get some Giants at -5.5. They are a MUCH better team then Atlanta. MUCH better.
But because the public is on the Giants, and the line has gone up, you guys are either on Atlanta or have this as a no play.
:think2:
But because the public is on the Giants, and the line has gone up, you guys are either on Atlanta or have this as a no play.
:think2:
That would still be a no play for me, as I don't like lines that move *with* consensus opinion, except in the short window preceding gametime.
I've reached the point in my gambling where I realise I don't know shit. By that I mean there is not likely much of anything in the stats/data/editorials that will give me an edge over the bookmaker, that other gamblers have not already figured out. In other words, I believe the market is laden with 'perfect information'; absent being the only person aware that the ref is about to fix a game, there isn't anything I can find out that you can't also find out. It's become far easier to piggyback the sharps, than to try and become one. So my job, then, is only to figure out what they're playing.
Games like this, where the line moves with the consensus, are harder for me at this point. Maybe in time I'll figure them out.
Let me clarify ... if the line and price is moving left at SIA/Bodog et al, but holding or moving to the right at Pinnacle, I know where I'm going. When Pinny moves the line WITH the consensus *long before gametime* then I tend to back off.
That said, this is a new thing for me, gambling like this. I kept data the previous two years using Wagerline and two other sources as a guide. I will constantly be tweaking and/or looking for other trends.
Thanks for the info!
