Bryan Leonard comp
Game 4 Red Sox/Indians over the total
After a quiet offensive performance in Game 3, it's set up for a high scoring game here. Cleveland starter Paul Byrd and Boston's Tim Wakefield are the No. 4 starters. Wakefield is 41 years old and you never know whether his knuckler will be on or not. It's easy to steal of knucklers, of course, and the Indians have good speed in this lineup. The Sox are 4-2 over the total his last 6 starts, and the Indians are 4-2 over in Byrd's last six.
PLAY THE RED SOX/INDIANS OVER THE TOTAL
DAVE COKIN
"Not much offense in Cleveland Monday night, and that benefited the Indians as they took a 2-1 series lead. I expect the Boston bats to come alive Tuesday night against Paul Byrd. Tim Wakefield takes the mound off an injury-induced layoff for the Red Sox and the rust showing would not be a surprise. The Under has cashed the last two games, but I see plenty of offense in Game Four and will back the Over."
JIM FEIST
This shapes up as an offensive show in game 4. You never know what Boston starter Tim Wakefield will do with his dancing knuckler. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 6 straight starts. He also has a 5.25 ERA since the All Star game. The Red Sox have a strong offense and starter Paul Byrd allows opponents to hit .301 off him this season. He also has a 5.68 ERA at home. Look for the bats to bust out in hitter-friendly Jacobs Field.
Play the Red Sox/Indians over the total!
Michael Cannon Money Train
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Cannon Money Train
Still in a long-term slump, Goes 1-1 on Monday, Down 14 Dimes
15 Dime –
INDIANS
Take the Indians tonight at home for the Game 4 win.
I don’t think I can trust Tim Wakefield and his balky back tonight for Boston. The knuckleballer hasn’t pitched since September 29, and while it’s not as big a deal with a knuckleballer versus a regular pitcher, I can’t trust that his back will allow him to last through five or six innings.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures to be in the high 50’s, and while that’s not bone-chilling it may be just enough to keep Wakefield’s back from loosening up completely.
The Indians will counter with Paul Byrd and I like the veteran’s chances here at home. He won 15 games during the regular season and has pitched in high-pressure situations before. The right-hander has excellent control so you can forget about the Red Sox getting any free passes tonight.
Cleveland does have some mojo going right now, from the clutch-hitting of the ageless Kenny Loften to the brilliant performance turned in by their bullpen, which hasn’t allowed a run over their last 7 1-3 innings.
Boston can’t make that claim right now as nobody has stepped it up since Cleveland took them to extra innings in Game 2.
Take the Tribe as they grab the win and commanding series lead tonight.
C-Stars Sports Picks
MLB
Boston -110
CAPPERS ACCESS
Red Sox
Insider Sports Report
MLB
Indians Ov 10
Chad Jordan
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Sport: MLB
Match up: Boston at Cleveland
Prediction: Boston Red Sox -105 W/ Wakefield
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Tuesday, October 16th, 8:00 P.M. EDT
Expect teams to play it conservatively and go for one run when they can and also have a quick hook to go to the pen if their pitchers get in trouble. Supporting angles say to Play Under Any Team (BOSTON) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors, in October games. (120-67 since 1997, 64.2%), Play Under - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (BOSTON) - in the league championship series. (92-38 since 1997, 70.8%) and Play Under - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, in October games. (70-36 since 1997, 66%).
Play on: Under
HONDO BACK IN BLACK
October 16, 2007 -- Hondo, who doubled his pleasure with the Jaguars and Rockies Sunday, turned in a repeat performance last night as he hit with the Giants and Rockies (in the NLCS) to bounce back into the black.
Tonight, with 25 wietechas in the account, Mr. Aitch will float 10 units in the direction of Wakefield, that knucklehead.
Mighty Quinn
Mighty Q likes the R Sox Pk /
Game 4 Red Sox/Indians over the total
After a quiet offensive performance in Game 3, it's set up for a high scoring game here. Cleveland starter Paul Byrd and Boston's Tim Wakefield are the No. 4 starters. Wakefield is 41 years old and you never know whether his knuckler will be on or not. It's easy to steal of knucklers, of course, and the Indians have good speed in this lineup. The Sox are 4-2 over the total his last 6 starts, and the Indians are 4-2 over in Byrd's last six.
PLAY THE RED SOX/INDIANS OVER THE TOTAL
DAVE COKIN
"Not much offense in Cleveland Monday night, and that benefited the Indians as they took a 2-1 series lead. I expect the Boston bats to come alive Tuesday night against Paul Byrd. Tim Wakefield takes the mound off an injury-induced layoff for the Red Sox and the rust showing would not be a surprise. The Under has cashed the last two games, but I see plenty of offense in Game Four and will back the Over."
JIM FEIST
This shapes up as an offensive show in game 4. You never know what Boston starter Tim Wakefield will do with his dancing knuckler. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 6 straight starts. He also has a 5.25 ERA since the All Star game. The Red Sox have a strong offense and starter Paul Byrd allows opponents to hit .301 off him this season. He also has a 5.68 ERA at home. Look for the bats to bust out in hitter-friendly Jacobs Field.
Play the Red Sox/Indians over the total!
Michael Cannon Money Train
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Cannon Money Train
Still in a long-term slump, Goes 1-1 on Monday, Down 14 Dimes
15 Dime –
INDIANS
Take the Indians tonight at home for the Game 4 win.
I don’t think I can trust Tim Wakefield and his balky back tonight for Boston. The knuckleballer hasn’t pitched since September 29, and while it’s not as big a deal with a knuckleballer versus a regular pitcher, I can’t trust that his back will allow him to last through five or six innings.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures to be in the high 50’s, and while that’s not bone-chilling it may be just enough to keep Wakefield’s back from loosening up completely.
The Indians will counter with Paul Byrd and I like the veteran’s chances here at home. He won 15 games during the regular season and has pitched in high-pressure situations before. The right-hander has excellent control so you can forget about the Red Sox getting any free passes tonight.
Cleveland does have some mojo going right now, from the clutch-hitting of the ageless Kenny Loften to the brilliant performance turned in by their bullpen, which hasn’t allowed a run over their last 7 1-3 innings.
Boston can’t make that claim right now as nobody has stepped it up since Cleveland took them to extra innings in Game 2.
Take the Tribe as they grab the win and commanding series lead tonight.
C-Stars Sports Picks
MLB
Boston -110
CAPPERS ACCESS
Red Sox
Insider Sports Report
MLB
Indians Ov 10
Chad Jordan
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Sport: MLB
Match up: Boston at Cleveland
Prediction: Boston Red Sox -105 W/ Wakefield
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Tuesday, October 16th, 8:00 P.M. EDT
Expect teams to play it conservatively and go for one run when they can and also have a quick hook to go to the pen if their pitchers get in trouble. Supporting angles say to Play Under Any Team (BOSTON) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors, in October games. (120-67 since 1997, 64.2%), Play Under - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (BOSTON) - in the league championship series. (92-38 since 1997, 70.8%) and Play Under - Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, in October games. (70-36 since 1997, 66%).
Play on: Under
HONDO BACK IN BLACK
October 16, 2007 -- Hondo, who doubled his pleasure with the Jaguars and Rockies Sunday, turned in a repeat performance last night as he hit with the Giants and Rockies (in the NLCS) to bounce back into the black.
Tonight, with 25 wietechas in the account, Mr. Aitch will float 10 units in the direction of Wakefield, that knucklehead.
Mighty Quinn
Mighty Q likes the R Sox Pk /
Brandon Lang
5 DIME
Boston Red Sox - Specify Pitchers - Wakefield vs Byrd
BOSTON
First of all, I don't think Wakefield nor Byrd will be factoring in the decision tonight.
I think, just like game two, offense will be front and center and when the smoke clears, the Red Sox will have the better of Byrd and the Indians bullpen.
I am fully aware of Byrd going 3-0 his last 4 versus the Red Sox but only one of those starts was this year and that was all the way back in May.
You look at his last 3 starts and 2 of them were terrible.
10 earned runs in 10 innings against the Mariners and the A's.
Yes, I am aware of the fact he did beat the Yankees in his only playoff start but that won't be the situation here.
He has an ERA over 5 at home this year and in a must win situation tonight, the Red Sox will handle Byrd.
As for Wakefield, he has allowed just 5 earned his last 13 innings versus the Indians and did win his last start of the year.
5 DIME
Boston Red Sox - Specify Pitchers - Wakefield vs Byrd
BOSTON
First of all, I don't think Wakefield nor Byrd will be factoring in the decision tonight.
I think, just like game two, offense will be front and center and when the smoke clears, the Red Sox will have the better of Byrd and the Indians bullpen.
I am fully aware of Byrd going 3-0 his last 4 versus the Red Sox but only one of those starts was this year and that was all the way back in May.
You look at his last 3 starts and 2 of them were terrible.
10 earned runs in 10 innings against the Mariners and the A's.
Yes, I am aware of the fact he did beat the Yankees in his only playoff start but that won't be the situation here.
He has an ERA over 5 at home this year and in a must win situation tonight, the Red Sox will handle Byrd.
As for Wakefield, he has allowed just 5 earned his last 13 innings versus the Indians and did win his last start of the year.
Jimmy The Moose comp
Game: Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings
Oct 16 2007 10:35PM
Prediction: Minnesota Wild
Reason: Minnesota is off to a perfect 5-0 start to the season. The Wild are averaging 2.2 Goals per game while allowing 0.80 GPG. In their last 26 games played after 1-days rest they are 19-7. The Kings are 1-5 on the year. LA has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. In their last 8 games vs. Northwest opponents the Kings are 2-6. In their last 52 games played after 1-days rest the Kings are 17-35. The Kings have lost the last 4 meetings with Minnesota. Play on the Wild
Ross Benjamin comp
Minnesota @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM ET 10/16/2007
Play On: Minnesota –160
Any away favorite playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, is off 1 day of rest, and is playing their 3rd straight game on the road is 9-1-1 SU since the 1997-1998 season. Play on the Minnesota Wild
Tom Freese Blue Line Club
Calgary at Colorado (9:05pm)
Colorado thrives when they are well rested as they are 26-6 with 2 days rest. The Avalanche are 6-1 at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of over .600 and they are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. the Flames. Calgary is 1-12 away after a game 7 or more goals were scored. The Flames are just 16-37 their last 53 road games.
Play On COLORADO
Game: Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings
Oct 16 2007 10:35PM
Prediction: Minnesota Wild
Reason: Minnesota is off to a perfect 5-0 start to the season. The Wild are averaging 2.2 Goals per game while allowing 0.80 GPG. In their last 26 games played after 1-days rest they are 19-7. The Kings are 1-5 on the year. LA has lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. In their last 8 games vs. Northwest opponents the Kings are 2-6. In their last 52 games played after 1-days rest the Kings are 17-35. The Kings have lost the last 4 meetings with Minnesota. Play on the Wild
Ross Benjamin comp
Minnesota @ Los Angeles 10:35 PM ET 10/16/2007
Play On: Minnesota –160
Any away favorite playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, is off 1 day of rest, and is playing their 3rd straight game on the road is 9-1-1 SU since the 1997-1998 season. Play on the Minnesota Wild
Tom Freese Blue Line Club
Calgary at Colorado (9:05pm)
Colorado thrives when they are well rested as they are 26-6 with 2 days rest. The Avalanche are 6-1 at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of over .600 and they are 6-2 their last 8 home games vs. the Flames. Calgary is 1-12 away after a game 7 or more goals were scored. The Flames are just 16-37 their last 53 road games.
Play On COLORADO
Rocketman Sports
Play On: 2* Colorado -140
Calgary is 32-59 last 3 years on the road. Colorado is 26-6 last 3 years when playing with 2 days rest. Calgary is 2-3 overall while Colorado is 3-2 overall this season. Colorado is a perfect 3-0 at home outscoring opponents 15-6 in those 3 games. Actually, Colorado has scored 15 of their 16 goals this year at home. Colorado is 6-2 SU and ATS at home against Calgary last 3 seasons. We'll play Colorado for 2 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Play On: 2* Colorado -140
Calgary is 32-59 last 3 years on the road. Colorado is 26-6 last 3 years when playing with 2 days rest. Calgary is 2-3 overall while Colorado is 3-2 overall this season. Colorado is a perfect 3-0 at home outscoring opponents 15-6 in those 3 games. Actually, Colorado has scored 15 of their 16 goals this year at home. Colorado is 6-2 SU and ATS at home against Calgary last 3 seasons. We'll play Colorado for 2 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Drew Gordon goes 0-2 on yesterday with Atlanta and Boston. I guess there can only be one Great One! Speaking of the Great One, Chris Jordan has only lost 22,445 units for his clients this year.
Drew Gordon's Tuesday Pick
300,000♦ Indians
Indians- I've been critical of the Indians in the past, but with an impressive win yesterday, its clear the momentum has shifted in this series. All of a sudden, the Indians weaknesses, like their bullpen, have become strengths, not allowing a run over their last 7 1/3 innings! Guys, this Indians team is pulling it together at precisely the right time, and the way they're playing at Jacobs, Boston is in big trouble tonight.
Speaking of Jacobs, not only are the Indians 55-29 there this season, but more importantly they're 3-0 there this postseason! Its not only the fact the Indians play much better at home, but also, the Red Sox offense isn't nearly as potent on the road (a.k.a. a less hitter friendly park), batting just .262 away on the year!
A lot has been made of the Red Sox offense this season, but you've watched the last two games, and you know that if Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell don't contribute, runs are hard to come by for this Boston club. Indians are milking this strategy for everything its worth, at times pitching around the big 2 in this lineup and frustrating them in the process.
This is the mission for veteran pitcher Paul Byrd, who's experience and numbers suggest a solid effort tonight. Not only is he 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA in 7 career starts against the Red Sox, including his May 30th win at Fenway (allowing 1 earned over 6 innings). But he's also been rock-solid in the LCS, going 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two games against the surging White Sox in 2005! Note, he was the only Angels pitcher to beat the White Sox in that series.
Finally, we all know starting knuckler Tim Wakefield is crapshoot. Yes, his LCS numbers are impressive, going 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 4 career starts. However, if you saw him pitch in September, you understand my point, as he went 1-2 with an ugly 8.76 ERA in 5 starts! Look for the Indians surging offense to make Wakefield pay early and often in this one. End result: Another solid home win for the Tribe!
Take the Indians behind Byrd over the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS.
Drew Gordon's Tuesday Pick
300,000♦ Indians
Indians- I've been critical of the Indians in the past, but with an impressive win yesterday, its clear the momentum has shifted in this series. All of a sudden, the Indians weaknesses, like their bullpen, have become strengths, not allowing a run over their last 7 1/3 innings! Guys, this Indians team is pulling it together at precisely the right time, and the way they're playing at Jacobs, Boston is in big trouble tonight.
Speaking of Jacobs, not only are the Indians 55-29 there this season, but more importantly they're 3-0 there this postseason! Its not only the fact the Indians play much better at home, but also, the Red Sox offense isn't nearly as potent on the road (a.k.a. a less hitter friendly park), batting just .262 away on the year!
A lot has been made of the Red Sox offense this season, but you've watched the last two games, and you know that if Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell don't contribute, runs are hard to come by for this Boston club. Indians are milking this strategy for everything its worth, at times pitching around the big 2 in this lineup and frustrating them in the process.
This is the mission for veteran pitcher Paul Byrd, who's experience and numbers suggest a solid effort tonight. Not only is he 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA in 7 career starts against the Red Sox, including his May 30th win at Fenway (allowing 1 earned over 6 innings). But he's also been rock-solid in the LCS, going 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two games against the surging White Sox in 2005! Note, he was the only Angels pitcher to beat the White Sox in that series.
Finally, we all know starting knuckler Tim Wakefield is crapshoot. Yes, his LCS numbers are impressive, going 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in 4 career starts. However, if you saw him pitch in September, you understand my point, as he went 1-2 with an ugly 8.76 ERA in 5 starts! Look for the Indians surging offense to make Wakefield pay early and often in this one. End result: Another solid home win for the Tribe!
Take the Indians behind Byrd over the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS.
Maybe some Newsletters can help entertain you guys.
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 KANSAS CITY over *Oakland
Late Score Forecast:
KANSAS CITY 24 - *Oakland 13
(Sunday, October 21)
It has taken K.C. a little while to get things rolling following RB Larry
Johnson's holdout for most of training camp, QB Damon Huard's lingering calf
injury at the start of the season, and DE Jared Allen's initial two-game NFL
suspension. But those factors are now all in the past, as the Chiefs have
won three of their last four games (including a road victory at S.D.) to
become major players in the AFC West. Oakland, banged up in the DL, could
not cope with LaDainian Tomlinson on some basic plays last week, and figures
to have continuing problems with Larry Johnson (112 YR week ago). Also,
physical rookie WR Dwayne Bowe (28 recs.; 3 TDC) is complementing TE Tony
Gonzales (38 & 3). DE Allen has six sacks in just four games, joining DE
Tamba Hali & LB Derrick Johnson in providing high-quality pass-rush pressure.
10 *INDIANA over Penn State
Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 24 - Penn State 21
You don't have to be as smart as Kelvin Sampson (...?) to figure out Penn
State's performance pattern. Simply, Nittany Lions have dropped off
alarmingly away from Happy Valley lately (1-6 SU and vs. line as visitor
since last season), and this trip to Bloomington will be just as difficult as
other recent road adventures. Doubt erratic PSU QB Morelli (just 1 TDP & 3
picks in two road starts TY) can put Indiana in the sort of hole Michigan
State did week ago, when Hoosiers were forced into catch-up mode early.
Meanwhile, IU's playmaking soph QB Lewis (16 TDP) has sufficient "quicks" to
diffuse Joe Paterno's aggressive defensive tactics, while smaller Nittany
Lion DBs no doubt having nightmares about prospects of dealing with IU's
rangy 6-7 wideout Hardy (almost 20 yards per catch and 9 TDs!).
10 *MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSISSIPPI 24 - Arkansas 19
Recuperative powers of each will be tested after respective bitter losses
week ago. But SEC sources keeping closer tabs on Arkansas situation that many
believe could begin to deteriorate rapidly with negative rumors of HC Nutt's
future beginning to dominate Razorback Nation. And we're not sure a
turnaround is imminent, especially with playmaking WR Monk still sidelined,
robbing QB Dick (who's completing SEC-low 51%) of the field-stretching
element Hog "O" could use to properly complement RBs McFadden (slowed by sore
ribs) and Felix Jones. Combative "rivalry dog" Ole Miss has covered last five
chances as SEC dog at noisy Vaught-Hemingway. Prefer Rebel balance with sr.
QB Adams (12 TDP) and fleet group of wideouts that provide dangerous aerial
diversion for chop-busting RB Green-Ellis.
11 *MISSOURI over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast
*MISSOURI 45 - Texas Tech 30
Missouri HC Gary Pinkel has raised expectations and excitement in Columbia,
and the team has responded by notching an 8-1-1 spread mark last 10 at home.
Tigers went to Oklahoma last week without services of top RB Tony Temple
(career 5.3 ypc), who stayed home with an ankle sprain. Temple should be
back to full speed for this weekend after being upgraded to probable on
Monday. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel threw for 361 yds. against an Oklahoma
defense that's much stronger than the Texas Tech group, which yielded 49
points in its only tough road game at Oklahoma State. With Temple back in
the Tiger game plan, the Red Raiders will be kept off balance throughout the
contest. Missouri has faced a much more difficult slate of games than Tech,
and Red Raiders just 8-14 vs. the number away from home since 2004.
10 AUBURN over *Lsu
Late Score Forecast:
AUBURN 17 - *Lsu 16
Long-time SEC scouts say oddsmakers not giving 5-2 Auburn (early 10-pt. dog)
enough respect in this critical SEC West showdown, considering talented, deep
Tigers getting healthier with recent return of LB Blackmon & C Bosley (DE
Groves expected back this week). And with LSU's QB Flynn hampered some by a
nagging high ankle sprain & inconsistent WR corps (4 drops vs. Kentucky), the
offense won't find any groove vs. fast & fierce Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 3.2
ypc) that's already faced 3 highly-mobile QBs (USF's Grothe, Florida's Tebow
& Vandy's Nickson). Meanwhile, Auburn's battle-tested, accurate QB Cox (58%)
will use some play-action, with physical RBs Tate & Lester having success vs.
LSU front 7 less than dominating past two weeks. And keep in mind confident
Auburn has won 13 of its last 14 on SEC road, and is 8-1 SU last 9 vs. Top
Ten foes!
TOTALS: OVER (46.5) in Minnesota-Dallas game-Vikes rugged vs. the run, but
showed again last week they are still vulnerable to the pass; young Minny
backfield unlikely to go two straight games without a turnover...UNDER (34.5)
in the Baltimore-Buffalo game-It seems as if the Baltimore offense is geared
to score FGs; Bills' offense has only two TDs in the last two games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): WEST VIRGINIA (-23) VS. Mississippi
State-Rested Mounties torched MSU "D" for 314 yards & 5 TDs on the ground in
'06 meeting & WV 5-0 TY laying double-digits...TEXAS A&M (+2) at Nebraska-A&M
4-1 vs. number last 5 on Big XII road & Callahan's Huskers failed to cover
last 6 games...STANFORD (+10) at Arizona-Cardinal HC Jim Harbaugh has team
headed in right direction. Arizona just 2-6 last 8 as chalk...PURDUE (-7)
over Iowa-Purdue should bounce back at home coming off losses to Ohio St. &
Michigan. Hawkeyes have injury & suspension issues and are just 5-11 vs.
number last 16 away from home...BUFFALO (+3) vs. Baltimore-Bill QB Trent
Edwards has completed 70% of his passes in relief of J.P. Losman, who might
return, and NFL home dogs are 63-45 the last 1+ seasons.
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Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11 KANSAS CITY over *Oakland
Late Score Forecast:
KANSAS CITY 24 - *Oakland 13
(Sunday, October 21)
It has taken K.C. a little while to get things rolling following RB Larry
Johnson's holdout for most of training camp, QB Damon Huard's lingering calf
injury at the start of the season, and DE Jared Allen's initial two-game NFL
suspension. But those factors are now all in the past, as the Chiefs have
won three of their last four games (including a road victory at S.D.) to
become major players in the AFC West. Oakland, banged up in the DL, could
not cope with LaDainian Tomlinson on some basic plays last week, and figures
to have continuing problems with Larry Johnson (112 YR week ago). Also,
physical rookie WR Dwayne Bowe (28 recs.; 3 TDC) is complementing TE Tony
Gonzales (38 & 3). DE Allen has six sacks in just four games, joining DE
Tamba Hali & LB Derrick Johnson in providing high-quality pass-rush pressure.
10 *INDIANA over Penn State
Late Score Forecast:
*INDIANA 24 - Penn State 21
You don't have to be as smart as Kelvin Sampson (...?) to figure out Penn
State's performance pattern. Simply, Nittany Lions have dropped off
alarmingly away from Happy Valley lately (1-6 SU and vs. line as visitor
since last season), and this trip to Bloomington will be just as difficult as
other recent road adventures. Doubt erratic PSU QB Morelli (just 1 TDP & 3
picks in two road starts TY) can put Indiana in the sort of hole Michigan
State did week ago, when Hoosiers were forced into catch-up mode early.
Meanwhile, IU's playmaking soph QB Lewis (16 TDP) has sufficient "quicks" to
diffuse Joe Paterno's aggressive defensive tactics, while smaller Nittany
Lion DBs no doubt having nightmares about prospects of dealing with IU's
rangy 6-7 wideout Hardy (almost 20 yards per catch and 9 TDs!).
10 *MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSISSIPPI 24 - Arkansas 19
Recuperative powers of each will be tested after respective bitter losses
week ago. But SEC sources keeping closer tabs on Arkansas situation that many
believe could begin to deteriorate rapidly with negative rumors of HC Nutt's
future beginning to dominate Razorback Nation. And we're not sure a
turnaround is imminent, especially with playmaking WR Monk still sidelined,
robbing QB Dick (who's completing SEC-low 51%) of the field-stretching
element Hog "O" could use to properly complement RBs McFadden (slowed by sore
ribs) and Felix Jones. Combative "rivalry dog" Ole Miss has covered last five
chances as SEC dog at noisy Vaught-Hemingway. Prefer Rebel balance with sr.
QB Adams (12 TDP) and fleet group of wideouts that provide dangerous aerial
diversion for chop-busting RB Green-Ellis.
11 *MISSOURI over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast
*MISSOURI 45 - Texas Tech 30
Missouri HC Gary Pinkel has raised expectations and excitement in Columbia,
and the team has responded by notching an 8-1-1 spread mark last 10 at home.
Tigers went to Oklahoma last week without services of top RB Tony Temple
(career 5.3 ypc), who stayed home with an ankle sprain. Temple should be
back to full speed for this weekend after being upgraded to probable on
Monday. Mizzou QB Chase Daniel threw for 361 yds. against an Oklahoma
defense that's much stronger than the Texas Tech group, which yielded 49
points in its only tough road game at Oklahoma State. With Temple back in
the Tiger game plan, the Red Raiders will be kept off balance throughout the
contest. Missouri has faced a much more difficult slate of games than Tech,
and Red Raiders just 8-14 vs. the number away from home since 2004.
10 AUBURN over *Lsu
Late Score Forecast:
AUBURN 17 - *Lsu 16
Long-time SEC scouts say oddsmakers not giving 5-2 Auburn (early 10-pt. dog)
enough respect in this critical SEC West showdown, considering talented, deep
Tigers getting healthier with recent return of LB Blackmon & C Bosley (DE
Groves expected back this week). And with LSU's QB Flynn hampered some by a
nagging high ankle sprain & inconsistent WR corps (4 drops vs. Kentucky), the
offense won't find any groove vs. fast & fierce Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 3.2
ypc) that's already faced 3 highly-mobile QBs (USF's Grothe, Florida's Tebow
& Vandy's Nickson). Meanwhile, Auburn's battle-tested, accurate QB Cox (58%)
will use some play-action, with physical RBs Tate & Lester having success vs.
LSU front 7 less than dominating past two weeks. And keep in mind confident
Auburn has won 13 of its last 14 on SEC road, and is 8-1 SU last 9 vs. Top
Ten foes!
TOTALS: OVER (46.5) in Minnesota-Dallas game-Vikes rugged vs. the run, but
showed again last week they are still vulnerable to the pass; young Minny
backfield unlikely to go two straight games without a turnover...UNDER (34.5)
in the Baltimore-Buffalo game-It seems as if the Baltimore offense is geared
to score FGs; Bills' offense has only two TDs in the last two games.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): WEST VIRGINIA (-23) VS. Mississippi
State-Rested Mounties torched MSU "D" for 314 yards & 5 TDs on the ground in
'06 meeting & WV 5-0 TY laying double-digits...TEXAS A&M (+2) at Nebraska-A&M
4-1 vs. number last 5 on Big XII road & Callahan's Huskers failed to cover
last 6 games...STANFORD (+10) at Arizona-Cardinal HC Jim Harbaugh has team
headed in right direction. Arizona just 2-6 last 8 as chalk...PURDUE (-7)
over Iowa-Purdue should bounce back at home coming off losses to Ohio St. &
Michigan. Hawkeyes have injury & suspension issues and are just 5-11 vs.
number last 16 away from home...BUFFALO (+3) vs. Baltimore-Bill QB Trent
Edwards has completed 70% of his passes in relief of J.P. Losman, who might
return, and NFL home dogs are 63-45 the last 1+ seasons.
<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21
WASHINGTON 17 - Arizona 10--Both teams beat up (check status of Arizona QB Kurt Warner, left elbow; Washington LT Samuels, leg; RT Wade, groin; and C Rabach, groin). Arizona (down to newly-signed Tim Rattay 3 ints. last week) hardly needed another QB injury, and Redskins were already missing two OL starters. Perhaps siding with Washington and its top-ranked defense (through Week Five) and the "under" might offer some benefit.
(05-Washington -3' 17-13...SR: Washington 71-44-2)
NEW ORLEANS 21 - Atlanta 20--One victory, spurred by a terrible punt snap by opponent Seattle, does not prove that the Saints are back on their playoff track of LY. They still have plenty of flaws, as do the Falcons. But Atlanta's new OL combo now has a game under its belt, and Falcs have continued to play hard for Bobby Petrino despite all their adversity TY. Atlanta gives its NFC South rival a game of it.
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR: Atlanta 44-32)
BUFFALO 16 - Baltimore 13--Neither of these teams harkens memories of Don Coryell's old San Diego Chargers. And at this stage, perhaps Kyle Boller (started last week vs. Rams) a better alternative than banged-up Steve McNair at QB for Baltimore. But we'd rather not lay points on road with Ravens, as low-octane "O" continues to stall in red zone (PK Stover 18 FGs already!), and banged-up OL started three rookie subs last week. Meanwhile, J.P. Losman (knee) might be available for Buffalo, although Dick Jauron might opt for poised Stanford rookie QB Edwards, who has produced home-dog covers his first two starts.
(06-BAL. 19-Buf. 7...Ba.18-10 Ba.30/111 Bu.14/39 Ba.22/36/1/216 Bu.20/35/2/214 Ba.0 Bu.1)
(06-BALTIMORE -9' 19-7...SR: Baltimore 2-1)
DALLAS 24 - Minnesota 20--Everyone knew Adrian Peterson was good, but last week's 224 YR and 3 TD jaunts on just 20 carries at Chicago were a revelation. This is even a bigger game for the Texas native (from Palestine, TX). And let's not forget the Vikes are 1-0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, with their biggest loss by just 3 points. Tarvaris Jackson (no ints. in Chicago) playing more carefully, while Tony Romo has tossed nine interceptions.
(2007 Preseason: Minnesota -2' beat Dallas 23-14 at Minnesota)
(04-MINNESOTA -6 35-17...SR: Dallas 13-12)
OVER THE TOTAL New England 42 - MIAMI 20--Little seems to bother the pointspread-perfect, leadership-rich Patriots and their 38 ppg offense, with Tom Brady now up to 21 TDP and Randy Moss with 8 TDC. Worse yet for 0-6 Miami, slick former Dolphin WR/KR Wes Welker (38 recs.) & RB Sammy Morris (check status) return to face their old team, which can't stop the run and can barely slow down good passers. What veteran N.E. misses speed-wise on defense, it makes up for in intelligence (Junior Seau 3 ints.). Miami QB Cleo Lemon had two TDP & two TDR last week in Cleveland, but also two interceptions. High-octane Pats "over" 10 of last 12 games.
(06-N. ENG. 20-Miami 10...M.19-17 N.34/79 M.21/62 M.26/41/2/221 N.16/29/0/134 N.1 M.1)
(06-MIAMI 21-N. Eng. 0...M.19-12 M.31/131 N.25/123 M.18/30/0/184 N.14/28/0/66 M.0 N.2)
(06-NEW ENGLAND -9' 20-10, MIAMI +3' 21-0...SR: Miami 48-35)
NY GIANTS 23 - San Francisco 10--Whether it's sore-kneed Alex Smith or 35-year-old Trent Dilfer at QB, it's hard to envision S.F. shaking out of its offensive doldrums (less than 200 yds. of offense 4 of 5 games TY) vs. hard-charging N.Y. front seven. Giants tied for first with 17 sacks through Week Five, and rookie CB Aaron Ross adding valuable coverage ability. With foes focused on him, 49er RB Gore averaging a frustrating 61 ypg & 3.6 ypc. Eli 7-1 SU and vs. spread last 8 in October (prior to Atlanta game). Niners "under" 10 of last 14.
(05-NY Giants -10' 24-6...SR: San Francisco 17-15)
DETROIT 23 - Tampa Bay 17--Lions among the leaders in passing, but they pay for it in their Martz-designed offense, with 32 sacks allowed, 8 ints., and low-ranking ground game. Still, their firepower vs. injury-depleted T.B. offense should give them an edge on their quick turf at home. First meeting of former Bucs' DL coach Rod Marinelli vs. former boss Jon Gruden and longtime friend, def. coord. Monte Kiffin. T.B. ground game hurting (30 YR last week).
(05-TAMPA BAY -6' 17-13...SR: Detroit 26-25)
Tennessee 20 - HOUSTON 16--Dynamics of this contest could change if Vince Young (quad injury) can't make post for Tennessee, and Kerry Collins (relieved Vince last week at T.B) gets start. And if it's Collins, we probably don't have to worry about Titans prevailing in same fashion they did in last visit to Houston (V.Y.'s madcap 39-yard OT TD scramble in his "homecoming" last December). But Tennessee more likely to win games with defense (only 14 ppg) this season, and Texan QB Schaub desperate to get injured WRs A. Johnson & rookie J. Jones back in lineup to enliven host's wheezing attack.
(06-TENN. 28-Hou. 22...H.26-10 H.26/148 T.27/111 H.33/46/2/279 T.7/15/0/86 T.0 H.3)
(06-Tenn. 26-HOU. 20 (OT)...T.22-15 T.33/218 H.30/107 T.19/29/1/200 H.17/23/0/133 T.1 H.0)
(06-TENNESSEE -3 28-22, Tennessee +1 26-20 (OT)...SR: Tennessee 8-2)
Kansas City 20 - OAKLAND 16--Damon Huard's shoulder injury early last week turned out to be pretty much a mirage, as he enjoyed a 25 of 35, 2-TDP game vs. in Chiefs' 27-20 win vs. Cincy. More importantly, Larry Johnson (119 YR) got back on track in the contest, and the defense collected four sacks and two interceptions. When Oakland can't get its ground attack rolling, the Raider aerial game comes under heavy pressure (Daunte Culpepper 2 ints., 6 sacks last week).
(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)
(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)
(06-KANSAS CITY -9 17-13, Kansas City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 51-43-2)
CINCINNATI 27 - NY Jets 13--Bengals (LBs Ahmad Brooks & Rashad Jeanty out again with injuries last week) can't seem to get healthy on defense. Too bad Jets (29th in total defense prior to last week) can't seem to stop decent offenses when they are healthy. And N.Y. certainly can't match Cincy's firepower, especially since Jets rarely get to opposing passers (only 6 sacks, 4 ints. TY). Would like Bengals even more if RB Rudi Johnson (check status) able to rejoin WRs C.J. & T.J. on offense.
(04-NY JETS -5 31-24...SR: NY Jets 13-6)
Chicago 27 - PHILADELPHIA 20--Yes, Chicago's 2007 defense is not as dominating as LY's Super Bowl team. But whether Andy Reid's low-risk "O" (Philly 16 points or fewer in 4 of first 5) has the weaponry to capitalize, as did the Vikes with rookie RB Adrian Peterson last week, remains to be seen. A big positive for the Bears is their now more-potent offense, with Brian Griese (381 YP & 3 TDP last week vs. Vikes) making better decisions than Rex Grossman and able to better exploit speed WRs Berrian & Hester. "Totals" alert--Chicago "over" last 4 (and 16 of last 22).
(04-Philadelphia -9 19-9...SR: Chicago 25-10-1)
SEATTLE 26 - St. Louis 10--Mike Holmgren was so angry with his offense's 21-0 loss in Pittsburgh that he pulled QB Hasselbeck late in the game, and for a while it looked as if he would spontaneously erupt during last Sunday night's 28-17 home loss vs. winless New Orleans. So, with their minds properly focused, and the Rams playing without their starting LT, LG, QB, RB, one WR and one S, last week in Baltimore, the Seahawks figure to take no prisoners if given an opening. Ram sub QB Gus Frerotte had 5 ints., 1 fumble, and 4 sacks last week. (Check status of Marc Bulger.)
(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)
(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)
(06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-8)
*Pittsburgh 27 - DENVER 17--Payback time for Steelers, who played Santa Claus last Nov. 5 vs. Denver, giving away the ball six times, helping Jake Plummer burn them with three TDP. Banged-up Ben Roethlisberger passed for 433 yds., but 3 ints., in the contest, which saw WR Javon Walker pick up 72 of the Broncos' 115 rush yards on one well-timed reverse. But Walker (knee; check status) has missed the last two games, and Rod Smith (PUP list) has missed them all. Broncos are last vs. the run and just 1-11 last 12 vs. spread at home! TV--NBC
(06-Denver 31-PITT 20...P.27-13 D.23/115 P.19/96 P.38/54/3/403 D.16/27/0/221 D.0 P.3)
(06-Denver +3 31-20...SR: Denver 15-9-1)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 22
*JACKSONVILLE 24 - Indianapolis 17--Jags have played the Colts about as well as anyone in recent years, going 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 in series, and hammering Indy for an amazing 375 YR in LY's meeting in Jacksonville. Choice by HC Del Rio of QB Garrard has been a wise one, as he's avoided any ints. through the first six games and has scrambled for some key first downs. Indy only 1-6 last 7 as a road favorite, and Colts figure to be at an added disadvantage if key players such as RB Addai, WR M. Harrison, and S Bob Sanders not back from their injuries. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-INDY 21-Jack. 14...J.20-14 J.40/191 I.20/63 I.14/31/0/209 J.16/28/2/106 I.0 J.0)
(06-JACK. 44-Indy 17...23-23 J.42/375 I.20/34 I.25/50/1/305 J.8/14/1/72 J.0 I.0)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -6' 21-14, JACKSONVILLE +1 44-17...SR: Indianapolis 9-3)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Indianapolis and Jacksonville on Monday Night
Indianapolis is 6-6 straight-up and 3-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
12-4 straight-up and 10-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Jacksonville is 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 84, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 117, Lost 115, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 32
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 117, Tied 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2006 Reg. Seas.: Jacksonville +1 beat Indianapolis 44-17 at Jacksonville
2006 Reg. Seas.: Indianapolis -6½ beat Jacksonville 21-14 at Indianapolis
NFL KEY RELEASES
CHICAGO by 7 over Philadelphia
JACKSONVILLE by 7 over Indianapolis
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the New England-Miami game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 9 2 3-3 3-2-1 3-3 21-23 2-1 18-20 1-1 25-26
Atlanta 10 2 1-4 3-2 2-3 14-20 1-1 23-22 2-1 8-19
Baltimore 5 2 4-2 1-5 2-2 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-3 14-20
Buffalo 10 3 1-4 3-2 2-3 13-24 3-0 18-18 0-2 5-32
Carolina 7 2 4-2 4-2 2-4 21-18 0-2 14-27 4-0 24-14
Chicago- 8 2 2-4 1-5 4-2 20-25 0-3 20-26 1-2 19-24
Cincinnati 7 3 1-4 2-3 3-2 25-31 1-1 20-27 1-2 29-34
Cleveland 9 3 3-3 4-2 5-0 28-31 3-1 32-31 1-1 21-30
Dallas 1 3 5-1 4-2 5-1 34-24 2-1 36-30 2-1 32-18
Denver 8 1 2-3 0-5 4-1 15-27 0-3 13-28 0-2 18-26
Detroit 11 4 3-2 2-2-1 3-2 23-31 1-0 29-22 1-2 20-37
Green Bay 6 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15
Houston 10 2 3-3 3-3 4-2 22-23 2-1 22-17 1-2 22-28
Indianapolis -2 4 5-0 3-2 3-2 33-18 3-0 37-15 0-2 26-22
Jacksonville 4 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 20-12 1-2 20-12 2-0 20-11
Kansas City 10 4 3-3 3-2-1 2-4 15-17 1-1 16-16 2-1 14-19
Miami 11 2 0-6 1-3-2 4-2 21-30 0-2 19-36 1-1 23-28
Minnesota+ 9 2 2-3 2-1-2 2-3 20-18 1-1 20-13 1-0 20-21
New England+ -6 5 6-0 6-0 5-1 38-15 3-0 37-13 3-0 40-18
New Orleans+ 6 2 1-4 1-4 2-2 16-27 0-2 14-24 1-2 17-30
NY Giants 6 3 3-2 3-2 3-1 25-25 2-1 21-21 1-1 30-31
NY Jets 11 1 1-5 1-4-1 3-2 18-26 0-2 18-27 1-2 17-24
Oakland 11 3 2-3 2-3 4-1 23-26 0-2 24-30 2-1 23-23
Philadelphia 5 3 2-3 2-3 1-4 20-16 1-1 34-21 1-2 11-14
Pittsburgh 3 4 4-1 4-1 2-3 26-9 3-0 28-6 1-1 24-14
St. Louis 15 3 0-6 1-5 1-5 12-27 1-2 20-26 0-3 4-27
San Diego 4 3 3-3 3-3 4-2 23-20 2-1 19-16 1-2 26-24
San Francisco 11 3 2-3 2-2-1 1-4 13-20 1-1 10-16 1-1 17-27
Seattle 8 3 3-3 2-4 2-4 17-17 1-2 20-18 1-2 14-16
Tampa Bay 7 3 4-2 3-2-1 2-4 18-15 2-0 23-9 1-2 13-20
Tennessee 5 2 3-2 3-1-1 0-4 19-14 1-1 20-18 2-0 18-12
Washington 8 3 3-2 2-1-2 0-4 20-14 1-1 22-13 1-0 17-15
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18
*South Florida 27 - RUTGERS 20--Speedy, sure-tackling South Florida stop unit hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than a year. The last? Rutgers' star RB Rice during narrow win at Tampa in Sept. 2006. With pro-caliber sr. CBs Jenkins & T. Williams locking down on Knights' blossoming soph WR Britt (23 catches for 581 yards last 5 games), swarming Bull front 7 & star soph DE Selvie (20½ tackles for loss in first 6 games!) will make Rice earn every inch TY. Stubborn host will die hard, but QB Grothe's versatility gets profitable USF (covered 11 of last 14) over the top. TV--ESPN
(06-Rutgers 24-S. FLA. 22...19-19 R.45/226 S.25/92 S.17/26/2/255 R.11/20/1/100 R.0 S.1)
(06-Rutgers -3' 24-22 05-South Florida +2' 45-31...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Utah 24 - TCU 22--It took a few weeks, but gears are finally meshing for Utah attack that posted another 500+ yards last week vs. S. Diego St. and has uncovered the necessary infantry diversion (RB Mack 426 YR last 3) to properly complement hot QB B. Johnson. Meanwhile, TCU's "D" bearing little resemblance to recent shut 'em down Fort Worth stop units, and still not sure if and when star Frog DE Blake will reappear.
(06-UTAH 20-Tcu 7...14-14 U.36/131 T.31/81 T.15/29/0/229 U.19/32/1/223 U.0 T.3)
(06-UTAH -2 20-7 05-TCU +3' 23-20 (OT)...SR: Utah 3-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 19
*Northwestern 42 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 38--EMU showed a little spunk rallying from 28-0 deficit to contest Ohio U. last week, and "back door" might be open for Eagle QB Schmitt (20 of 28 passing, 210 YP & 4 TDP vs. Bobcats; check status). Respect Northwestern attack, as QB Bacher has thrown for 990 yards & 9 TDs with no ints. the last two weeks, but the Wildcats have yielded 89 points in those games. (at Detroit, MI)
(06-NWSTRN. 14-E. Mich. 6...N.15-5 N.44/156 E.28/87 N.16/26/1/110 E.9/25/2/47 N.1 E.0)
(06-NORTHWESTERN -17' 14-6...SR: Northwestern 1-0)
*CONNECTICUT 27 - Louisville 26--Last week's win at rival Cincinnati a major boost for Louisville's sagging confidence. UConn well coached & fundamentally sound. Still, Cards' star sr. QB Brohm has 23 TDP, only 4 ints., and a very bright NFL future, while Husky counterpart Lorenzen, a juco transfer, adjusting to major college action. But L'ville defense still problematic. TV--ESPN
(06-LVL. 48-Conn. 17...L.28-8 L.44/221 C.31/147 L.21/29/1/349 C.7/19/1/89 L.2 C.1)
(06-LOUISVILLE -28' 48-17 05-Louisville -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-0)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20
SYRACUSE 28 - Buffalo 27--Beleaguered Syracuse HC G. Robinson & his awful Orange about as popular as foot fungus in upstate New York these days. Improving Buffalo has some good young playmakers on offense. Host has more experience on defense and a lot of desperation. Step down in class enables 'Cuse to eke out SU win.
(05-SYRACUSE -24 31-0 04-Syracuse -15 37-17...SR: EVEN 3-3-1)
Miami-Ohio 21 - TEMPLE 19--Temple enjoying life in the MAC, as the Owls are on a 2-game winning streak for the first time since 2002. QB DiMichele's three 4th-Q TD passes to rally Temple vs. Akron a sign Al Golden's team headed in right direction. Miami-O. off emotional home victory against Bowling Green (honored the late Terry Hoeppner and Ben Roethlisberger), and despite success, RedHawk attack missing some key cogs due to injuries. (05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 1-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 48 - Mississippi State 17--Now that rested 5-1 WV back in national title picture, prefer to lay the lumber vs. MSU squad that allowed 314 YR vs. Mounties spread attack in LY's 42-14 home loss. Bulldogs true frosh QB Carroll will be forced into many 3rd-and-long passing situations, since State's bread-and-butter ground game won't get untracked again vs. WV's toughening run defense (just 2.8 ypc, only 56 YR LY!). Croom's tiring squad (8th straight without a bye) wears down vs. explosive Mounties, who've won their two games in Morgantown TY by combined 110-31 margin.
(06-W. Va. 42-MISS. ST. 14...M.25-20 W.44/314 M.37/56 M.17/35/2/250 W.6/10/0/92 W.0 M.0)
(06-West Virginia -21 42-14...SR: West Virginia 1-0)
Penn State 22 - INDIANA 20--Prefer to count on "regression to the mean" after disparate results for these two last week. Can't see laying a premium number with Nittany Lion side that still gets uneven performances from QB Morelli and has suspended its top RB (Austin Scott). Penn State just 2-7 vs. number last 9 away from home, and Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis' speed will keep Nittany Lion defense off balance.
(04-Penn State -3' 22-18...SR: Penn State 10-0)
CLEMSON 38 - Central Michigan 26--This has been good pointspread role for rested Clemson, as Tigers' speed at skill positions usually too much for this level of foe. And vulnerable CMU defense will definitely have its hands full. Still, Chips' confident soph QB LeFevour, who's passed for 611 yards & 7 TDs and run for 246 yards & another 5 scores in just last 2 games, has enough weapons to avoid blowout. (FIRST MEETING)
WISCONSIN 38 - Northern Illinois 10--Wisconsin's embarrassing performance at Penn State should ensure a focused effort this week against injury-depleted NIU that owns just 1 win this season. Badger star RB Hill, who's been slowed by a groin injury, will get relief from backup Lance Smith (7.9 ypc, only available for home games). Banged-up Huskie defensive front yielding 4.6 ypc. (DNP...SR: Wisconsin 9-1)
Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI 23--Since disappointing Arkansas (0-3 in SEC!) still seriously misses the services of star WR Monk (embattled HC Nutt said it himself on national TV following bitter loss vs. Auburn), will "take" with hard-trying, offensively-balanced Ole Miss squad that's 5-0 as a home dog since '06. Hogs ace RB McFadden (season-low 43 YR vs. Auburn) has been bothered by sore ribs. And must give QB edge to Rebel triggerman S. Adams (58%, 12 TDs) over inconsistent Arkansas counterpart Dick (SEC-low 51%). Hiccupping Hogs 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9.
(06-ARK. 38-Miss. 3...A.15-14 A.37/141 M.31/102 A.14/18/0/205 M.13/36/0/143 A.0 M.0)
(06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17 04-ARK. -9' 35-3...SR: Arkansas 29-23-1)
SOUTH CAROLINA 38 - Vanderbilt 16--USC's demanding HC Spurrier (he called his offense "putrid") will be cracking the whip after nearly blowing 21-3 halftime lead in 21-15 victory vs. N. Carolina. So expect focused 'Cocks to eventually pull away from Vandy squad lacking offensive punch (11th in SEC in scoring & total off.). Commodores' new 2-QB system not the answer vs. Carolina's confusing zone & blitz packages. Spurrier 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in SEC.
(06-S. Car. 31-VANDY 13...S.18-16 S.39/194 V.36/133 S.11/18/1/133 V.11/25/2/120 S.3 V.1)
(06-Usc -3' 31-13 05-USC -7' 35-28 04-Usc -3' 31-6...SR: South Carolina 14-2)
NAVY 33 - Wake Forest 32--This season's gridiron version of the long ago Bobby Fischer-Boris Spassky chess showdown? Whatever, we at least know Lou Holtz will be paying close attention in the ESPN studio to two of his favorite teams and coaches (Navy's Paul Johnson and Wake's Jim Grobe). Although Mid "D" appears most vulnerable unit on field, Navy option humming with QB "Kaipo" at tiller, and Deacs not as menacing when favored (5-22-2 last 29 as chalk!). (DNP...SR: Wake Forest 5-2)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Army 10--Hard-trying Army didn't get embarrassed in earlier trips to ACC reps Wake & Boston College. No real motivation for Tech (just 5-10 last 15 as DD favorite) to pile points on Knights, and good chance for Jackets to rest some of their nicked-up starters. (DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 2-1)
AIR FORCE 24 - Wyoming 20--MWC sources continuing to sing praises of AFA and new HC Calhoun, as resourceful Falcs shut down their more aggressive shotgun package in favor of successful interpretation of old option during last week's inclement weather at Fort Collins. But QB Carney capable of going up top if necessary, and d.c. DeRuyter's well-disguised blitzes could fluster hot-and-cold Wyo QB Sween (only 7 TDP vs. 9 picks).
(06-A. Force 31-WYO. 24...A.24-14 A.70/327 W.21/77 W.13/21/0/169 A.3/7/0/40 A.1 W.2)
(06-Afa P 31-24 05-Wyo. +2' 29-28 04-WYO. -2' 43-26...SR: Air Force 23-20-2)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Ball State 31--Recent play of WMU QB Hiller (830 YP, 7 TDP, just 1 int. last 3 games) points to Broncos winning a shootout in this one. WMU RB Bonds (330 YR last 3) helping to balance attack, and Ball State had trouble with Western Kentucky last week (allowed 411 total yards to Hilltoppers & only led 14-12 at the half).
(06-W. Mich. 41-BALL ST. 27...B.23-20 W.38/166 B.29/9 B.28/38/3/360 W.20/24/0/291 W.2 B.0)
(06-Wmu -3 41-27 05-Bsu +11' 60-57 (OT) 04-BSU +3' 41-14...SR: Western Michigan 19-14)
Kansas 27 - COLORADO 26--It's still a bit unclear what to make of Kansas, with its five blowout home wins over weak opposition, and its one narrow road victory (30-24 at K-State), in which KU trailed in the 4th Q. It is clear that young CU is improved TY, with 5-8 sr. dynamo Hugh Charles having strung together four straight 100-yd. rushing games, the defense usually holding its own (ask Oklahoma), and QB Hawkins (despite 12 ints.) enlivening the offense.
(06-KANSAS 20-Colo. 15...C.19-14 C.43/172 K.33/161 K.18/29/3/180 C.10/27/2/144 K.1 C.0)
(06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLO. -15' 44-13 04-Colo. +2' 30-21...SR: Colorado 41-22-3)
Memphis 36 - RICE 31--Not much to recommend in battle between these C-USA bottom-feeders. Memphis 2-14 SU vs. Bowl Subdivision foes last 1+ seasons. But Rice deeply depressed after giving up 21 unanswered 4th-Q points & 748 total yards in last week's come-from-ahead loss to rival Houston. (FIRST MEETING)
Tulane 23 - SMU 21--Green Wave in transition (especially on offense), but also showing some spunk under new HC Toledo. Dallas scouts tell us SMU will probably be adjusting to their own new mentor next season, as Mustangs' 1-5 start finds HC Bennett back under heavy fire after promising 2006 campaign. Tulane RB Forte has 787 YR last 4.
(06-Smu 33-TULANE 28...S.24-22 S.38/98 T.21/M33 T.30/50/0/398 S.23/40/1/261 S.0 T.1)
(06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 10-5)
Nevada 27 - UTAH STATE 24--WAC sources have alerted us to fundamental changes in Logan that have made still-winless USU at least a bit more competitive vs. line (covered last 2, and 3 of last 5). New o.c. Dickey (ex-North Texas HC) hellbent on establishing run, which has effectively slowed pace of games and kept still-vulnerable Utag "D" off field. Chris Ault's Nevada Pistol still adjusting to new triggerman Kaepernick (making just 2nd start).
(06-NEV. 42-Utah St. 0...N.21-13 N.44/202 U.38/125 N.12/20/0/140 U.9/21/3/82 N.2 U.0)
(06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 13-4)
Tennessee 27 - ALABAMA 23--Resurgent UT (3 straight wins & covers) very much alive in SEC East. Vols now-punishing ground attack (401 YR last two games) will allow refined, well-protected sr. QB Ainge (67%, 21 TDs, just 3 ints., sacked only twice) to work play-action vs. depth-shy Bama defense vulnerable at CB spot opposite Castille (Bama has allowed SEC-high 12 TDP). Vols possess hotter kicking game with RS frosh PK Lincoln (12 of 13 FGs) & P Colquitt (43 yd. avg.). TV--CBS
(06-TENN. 16-Ala. 13...T.17-11 T.21/57 A.30/53 T.28/46/3/302 A.13/29/0/158 T.0 A.0)
(06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3 04-TENN. -7 17-13...SR: Alabama 44-38-7)
Texas A&M 30 - NEBRASKA 24--With both teams coming off humiliating losses, will side with the more stable situation. NU's defense (104th in the nation) failing to stop just about everyone, which is bad news vs. the run-oriented spread-option offense of Aggies, ably led by mistake-minimizing QB Stephen McGee (only 6 ints. last 1+Ys). Husker offense failing frequently vs. quality foes, and discouraged defense being accused of not going all out.
(06-Neb. 28-TEX. A&M 27...N.19-13 T.27/155 N.38/123 T.19/32/0/288 N.21/36/1/267 N.0 T.0)
(06-Nebraska -1 28-27...SR: Nebraska 10-2)
Oklahoma 48 - IOWA STATE 13--With ISU's "small-play" offense fighting to gain just a few first downs (much less touchdowns) and haunted by giveaways (19), Cyclone defense reaping the whirlwind (56-3 loss vs. Texas last week). To make matters worse, OU has more offensive talent and depth than UT and is back in national title hunt in a big way.
(06-OKLA. 34-Iowa St. 9...O.17-12 O.34/185 I.29/89 O.16/27/0/195 I.14/25/2/149 O.0 I.0)
(06-OKLAHOMA -19 34-9...SR: Oklahoma 66-5-2)
MISSOURI 42 - Texas Tech 31--With Mizzou (8-1-1 vs. number last 10 as host) now selling out in Columbia and QB Chase Daniel expert at keeping the chains moving with his scrambles and darts to dual TEs Coffman & Rucker (78 combined receptions), will side with Tigers in this shootout. TT QB Harrell (74%, 31 TDs) & WR sensation Crabtree (78 recs., 17 TDs) will do their damage. But Red Raider offense loses a bit of its edge away from home.
(06-Mo. 38-TEX. TECH 21...T.29-18 M.40/133 T.16/78 T.44/61/2/378 M.15/22/1/173 M.0 T.3)
(06-Missouri +5 38-21...SR: Missouri 4-2)
California 29 - UCLA 20--Difficult call without knowing status of both QB situations. But with Ben Olson out, UCLA's problems more acute if Patrick Cowan (knee) can't make post, as Bruin "O" better off snapping directly to RBs Bell or Markey than entrusting walk-on Bethel-Thompson with the controls. Cal at least in better shape if QB Longshore (ankle) sidelined, as backup Riley moved Bears smartly before last-second brain cramp vs. Oregon State last week.
(06-CAL. 38-Ucla 24...C.24-23 U.34/187 C.34/167 U.22/40/2/329 C.20/24/0/266 C.1 U.0)
(06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40 04-CAL. -16 45-28...SR: UCLA 48-28-1)
Southern Cal 26 - NOTRE DAME 13--No surprise if Charlie Weis pulls out every trick in the book (get ready for the green jerseys) as ND tries to break humbling 5-game losing streak vs. its hated old rival. But doubt current Irish QBs Clausen or Sharpley about to "wake up the echoes" this week. Still, after life-and-death struggles vs. Pac-10's bottom tier, and injury list growing exponentially (QB Booty could miss another start), not too comfy laying points with underachieving SC bunch that's just 2-10 last 12 as DD chalk. TV--NBC
(06-S. CAL 44-N. Dame 24...S.21-18 S.32/139 N.31/130 N.22/45/0/274 S.17/28/2/265 S.0 N.1)
(06-USC -8' 44-24 05-Usc -12 34-31 04-USC -23' 41-10...SR: Notre Dame 42-31-5)
FLORIDA STATE 16 - Miami-Florida 14--Remember when this blood feud had major national championship implications nearly every season? That luster might be gone, but bitter feelings and lots of speed on both defenses remain. Decision will likely hinge on which team gets a couple plays (or at least fewer mistakes) from its struggling QBs. Superior WRs tilt odds slightly in favor of host Florida State. But both teams struggling to score points. REG. TV--ABC
(06-Fla. St. 13-MIAMI 10...F.9-8 M.26/2 F.25/1 F.16/32/1/175 M.18/27/1/132 F.0 M.0)
(06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7 04-MIAMI -2 16-10 (OT)...SR: Florida St. 27-24)
Oregon 30 - WASHINGTON 24--Pointspread growing after last week's disparate efforts. And though playmaking RS frosh QB Locker giving U-Dub hope for the future, deficiencies in Husky passing game and defense becoming harder for Ty Willingham to camouflage as season progresses. But with Oregon down a few key playmakers (WR Colvin & RB J. Johnson out), Ducks might be hard-pressed to extend margin vs. old northwest rival.
(06-ORE. 34-Wash. 14...O.31-10 O.54/316 W.21/13 O.18/30/2/138 W.15/34/1/125 O.1 W.0)
(06-ORE. -14' 34-14 05-ORE. -16' 45-21 04-ORE. -20 31-6...SR: Washington 58-36-4)
OHIO STATE 40 - Michigan State 12--Michigan State attack has been impressive, as Spartans have averaged 42 ppg in 3 Big Ten games. However, Ohio State is the cream of the crop in the conference, and Buckeyes own the top-rated defense in the nation. OSU QB Boeckman 67% last 4 games & Buckeyes have handled Michigan St., covering last 4 in series. LSU's upset loss will serve to focus newly named No. 1 Ohio State. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Ohio St. 38-MICH. ST. 7...O.20-13 O.44/182 M.30/63 O.16/24/0/239 M.19/30/1/135 O.1 M.0)
(06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24 04-Osu -1 32-19...SR: Ohio State 25-12)
MARYLAND 23 - Virginia 13--Lightly-regarded Virginia has quietly won 6 straight, as Cavs' veteran defense hasn't allowed more than 3 TDs in any game this season. However, Maryland on recent uptick of its own. And rested Terps have found solid game manager in soph QB Turner to go with productive sr. RB duo of Lattimore & Ball. Poor-traveling UVa (just 9-23 vs. spread last 32 as visitor) lacks quality WRs.
(06-Mary. 28-VA. 26...V.19-17 V.35/181 M.34/174 V.13/21/1/243 M.17/28/1/171 M.0 V.1)
(06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33 04-VA. -14 16-0...SR: Maryland 41-28-2)
Bowling Green 27 - KENT STATE 24--Bowling Green HC Gregg Brandon called his team's loss to Miami-O. one of the most embarrassing games he's ever coached. Expect Falcons to come out with a much better effort this week, with Brandon working his OL into a frenzy after that group yielded 6 sacks against Miami. BG pass attack rebounds behind QB Sheehan & WRs Partridge & Barnes.
(06-Kent St. 38-B. GRN. 3...B.17-16 K.38/216 B.45/157 K.14/22/0/141 B.15/31/3/125 K.0 B.3)
(06-Kent St. +7 38-3 05-B. Green -11 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 52-16-6)
UCF 40 - Tulsa 33--Bullet-riddled UCF happy to be back at new Bright House home digs after being strafed for 116 points (!) in losses at E. Carolina & S. Florida. Smart Tulsa sr. QB P. Smith (369 ypg passing) will do damage. But, after being stuffed by stingy South Florida defense, Knights' jr. RB K. Smith (172 ypg rushing prior to last week) gets back on track vs. much more malleable Golden Hurricane (permitting 44 ppg in last 5).
(05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: Tulsa 1-0)
EAST CAROLINA 30 - North Carolina State 21--Pirates (134 points in last 3 games!) showing considerable offensive clout. Banged-up ECU defense not getting many stops, however. Sloppy State (just 5 takeaways vs. 22 giveaways!) has had extra week to try to clean up its act. But Pirates always give extra effort vs. the men from Raleigh.
(06-E. Car. 21-NCSU 16...E.20-13 E.38/124 N.29/107 E.14/29/0/220 N.17/28/1/186 E.0 N.0)
(06-Ecu +3 21-16 04-Ncs -21' 52-14...SR: North Carolina State 14-10)
ARIZONA 26 - Stanford 24--Arizona's bipolar performance pattern makes Cats a particularly difficult read, but recent history indicates Mike Stoops' bunch not to be trusted as chalk (just 2-6 in role since '04). Meanwhile, poised soph QB Pritchard has proven a defibrillator of sorts for Jim Harbaugh's version of West Coast "O," and playmaking Stanford wideouts Bradford, Moore, & Sherman can make UA "D" pay for its gambling tactics.
(06-Ariz. 20-STAN. 7...A.16-4 A.51/220 S.19/M6 A.10/13/1/74 S.8/13/0/58 A.0 S.1)
(06-Ariz. -3' 20-7 05-Stan. +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-9)
San Jose State 26 - FRESNO STATE 27--Late collapse vs. potent Hawaii notwithstanding, October version of San Jose a lot better than September edition, as shrewd HC Tomey has patiently mixed and matched personnel to compensate for early spate of injuries. And thanks to its own enhanced infantry presence, Fresno getting back in groove as well. But with Spartan QB Tafralis (300+ YP last 4) firing away, SJS extremely live dog.
(06-SJSU 24-Fres. St. 14...F.23-17 S.36/187 F.36/154 S.15/27/1/216 F.21/37/4/215 S.1 F.0)
(06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7 04-Fsu -26 62-28...SR: Fresno State 35-33-3)
*Houston 34 - UAB 27--Birmingham scouts impressed by moxie rebuilding Blazers (4 straight covers) are displaying under new HC Callaway. Houston should eventually ride its well-balanced offense (748 yards last week!) to victory, but hard-fighting host won't make it easy. (04-UAB -9' 20-7...SR: UAB 4-1)
*Florida 34 - KENTUCKY 23--Kudos to HC Brooks & his undaunted UK squad for upsetting No. 1 ranked LSU. But would still rather lay price with refreshed, defensively-superior Florida squad that hasn't lost in series since 1986. With reliable WR Caldwell back in lineup, Gators versatile, bullish soph QB Tebow (500 YR, 66%, SEC-leading 326 ypg total offense) will do plenty of business vs. somewhat undersized, yielding Cat defense (last in SEC in rush "D"; 26 ppg, 44% on 3rd down) that must perform at max intensity for 3rd straight week. Crafty UF mentor Meyer has never dropped 3 straight.
(06-FLA. 26-Ky. 7...F.24-17 F.38/235 K.22/39 F.16/28/1/279 K.26/38/0/210 F.1 K.0)
(06-FLA. -26' 26-7 05-Fla. -23 49-28 04-FLA. -18' 20-3...SR: Florida 40-17)
*Boise State 31 - LOUISIANA TECH 17--La Tech sure not scoring many style points these days, and HC Dooley resorting to desperate measures (more-mobile QB Mosley got start last week vs. NMS before former starter Champion bailed him out in relief) to kick-start "O." So, outscoring potent Boise probably out of question. Yet Broncos rarely take their "blue carpet" KO power on road, and improved Bulldog "D" can keep hosts from humiliation.
(06-BOISE ST. 55-La. Tech 14...B.24-20 B.42/265 L.35/141 B.15/23/0/224 L.17/35/1/163 B.3 L.1)
(06-BSU -35' 55-14 05-Bsu -6' 30-13 04-BSU -24' 55-14...SR: Boise St. 5-4)
*PURDUE 27 - Iowa 16--Iowa reached back for superior home effort against youthful Illinois, but facing veteran Purdue QB Curtis Painter and mature Boiler spread attack on road will be a tougher challenge for the Hawkeyes. Iowa offense missing too many pieces due to injury & suspension to expect much scoring, and Boilermaker "D" stepping way down in class after facing potent Michigan & Ohio State in last two games.
(06-IOWA 47-Purdue 17...I.25-24 I.40/286 P.36/202 P.23/48/3/254 I.17/23/0/253 I.3 P.0)
(06-IOWA -11 47-17 05-Iowa +4' 34-17 04-IOWA P 23-21...SR: Purdue 44-32-4)
*Ohio 30 - TOLEDO 26--Ohio HC Solich got his team back on track last week as both star RB Kalvin McRae (170 YR) and QB Brad Bower (232 YP, 3 TD passes) turned in their finest performances of the season in 48-point output vs. EMU. The Bobcat OL looked much more efficient, allowing only 1 sack and opening holes for McRae. Injured Toledo "D" continues to implode (34 points vs. Liberty, 43 at Buffalo; 43 ppg TY).
(05-Toledo -10' 30-21 04-TOLEDO -13' 31-13...SR: Toledo 29-19-1)
*Texas 52 - BAYLOR 16--Last week's 56-3 UT outpouring at Iowa State a bad omen for Baylor, which has lost last four at Waco to Longhorns by a combined 229-10 count! With new talent on Texas "D" showing signs of jelling behind DTs Okam & Lokey, it's hard to see unbalanced Bear offense (111th rushing) offering relief for beleaguered defense.
(06-TEXAS 63-Bay. 31...T.22-17 T.37/162 B.11/27 B.26/48/1/320 T.21/32/1/275 T.0 B.4)
(06-TEXAS -27 63-31 05-Texas -29 62-0 04-TEXAS -38 44-14...SR: Texas 70-22-4)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 31 - Kansas State 22--Credit K-State's Ron Prince for developing fine STs (11 TDs in L1+Ys) and a resourceful offense (e.g., TDs on reverses, RB passes). But he admits the Wildcat defense is neither especially big, nor fast, nor deep. So the versatile OSU offense--benefiting from the change to QB Zac Robinson five games ago--should capture the day. RB Savage (212 YR at Nebraska) & 6-4 WR Bowman (44 recs.) could dominate.
(06-KSU 31-Osu 27...O.19-14 O.41/193 K.36/180 K.10/15/0/177 O.14/22/1/138 K.0 O.0)
(06-KANSAS STATE +2' 31-27...SR: Oklahoma State 33-22)
*Cincinnati 37 - PITTSBURGH 19--Bearcats' bubble finally burst last week in home loss to Louisville. But count on energetic HC Kelly to get Cincy quickly back in win column. His sr. QB Mauk has substantial experience & mobility edges over Pitt's touted but still-learning true frosh counterpart Bostick. And the attacking Bearcat defense makes a lot more plays than passive Panther stop unit (just 2 takeaways last 4 games).
(06-Pitt 33-CINCY 15...C.16-13 P.35/90 C.30/35 P.11/21/0/267 C.25/40/2/221 P.3 C.1)
(06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 6-0)
*ILLINOIS 34 - Michigan 27--Will jump back on Illinois bandwagon now that Illini return home to Champaign-Urbana, where they've already handled Penn State & Wisconsin in '07. Key Michigan offensive cog RB Hart (and his backup) might not be 100% due to ankle injuries suffered vs. Purdue, and Wolverine offensive outburst shouldn't mask fact that Michigan lacks a top-25 defense. In speedy Juice Williams & Eddie McGee, Illini has type of escapability at QB that gives Wolverine "D" problems. (04-Mic. -18' 30-19...SR: Mic. 65-21-2)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 28 - Idaho 23--Recommend treading lightly, as both starting QBs banged-up (see Special Ticker). But would give nod to more competitive Idaho squad that boasts the premier rusher in elusive 5-8 RS frosh D. Jackson (786 YR, 5.6 ypc). Note, Vandals have covered 5 straight in series, while Aggies have defeated an FBS squad by more than a TD just once since Nov. '04.
(06-IDAHO 28-Nmsu 20...I.23-15 I.42/151 N.17/31 N.25/41/2/342 I.19/27/1/298 I.0 N.0)
(06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-3)
*LSU 20 - Auburn 16--Sure, revenge-minded LSU in doubly-angry mood after dropping from coveted but hard-to-maintain No. 1 spot. But still suggest "taking" with coming Auburn (4 straight wins & covers), which has thrived in this role (see Looking For An Angle). Without a fully healthy WR Doucet, doubt somewhat-hampered LSU QB Flynn (high ankle sprain) makes many big plays vs. fast, deep Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 279 ypg). LSU's loaded "D" eager to atone for Kentucky performance, but Auburn's tough, savvy field general Cox & steady RBs Tate & Lester maintain enough ball control for another low-scoring series defensive struggle.
(06-AUBURN 7-Lsu 3...L.16-13 A.38/72 L.23/42 L.20/37/0/269 A.11/20/1/110 A.0 L.0)
(06-AUBURN -3' 7-3 05-LSU -6 20-17 (OT) 04-AUBURN -1' 10-9...SR: LSU 21-19-1)
*New Mexico 33 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17--Although you don't hear Stan Verrett or Scott Van Pelt talking much about New Mexico on ESPN SportsCenter, Lobos' growing prowess no secret in MWC. And Rocky Long's unorthodox 3-3-5 defense has created all sorts of problems for bumbling SDSU in recent years (UNM 6 straight series wins and covers). Poor-tackling Aztec "D" still springing leaks fore (5.0 ypc) and aft (304 ypg thru air!).
(06-N. MEX. 41-Sdsu 14...S.25-14 N.32/214 S.34/104 S.27/49/3/327 N.9/20/0/87 N.0 S.1)
(06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24 04-UNM -5 19-9...SR: San Diego State 20-13)
*UNLV 23 - Colorado St. 16--Pick the spot where snakebit CSU breaks debilitating 13-game losing streak? Not yet, as physical UNLV front seven usually tough vs. the run. However, will note that Rams last win coincidentally was vs. Rebs more than a year ago (October 7, 2006)!
(06-Colo. St. 28-UNLV 7...C.23-14 C.43/130 U.22/52 C.23/28/0/257 U.19/38/1/198 C.1 U.0)
(06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27 04-CSU -6' 45-10...SR: Colorado State 10-4-1)
ADDED GAMES
TROY 47 - North Texas 22--Doubt UNT catches the same breaks (a pair of tipped interceptions for scores, and a 99-yard "bumper pool" TD pass from QB Vizza to WR Fitzgerald) it did to score three 1st-H TDs vs. ULM week ago. QB Haugabook & potent Troy spread ready to torch 118th-ranked Mean Green "D" that's been lit up by every capable "O" it has faced.
(06-TROY 14-N. Texas 6...N.12-11 T.39/142 N.35/83 N.11/25/0/147 T.13/22/1/101 T.1 N.0)
(06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 3-1)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 32 - Arkansas State 19--With MTSU's dynamic true frosh QB Dasher (410 total yards last week at Memphis!) making all of Santa's reindeer proud, no reason hot Blue Raiders (covered last 3) can't continue curious series dominance over ASU. MTSU has won and covered last 4 meetings, the last 3 by 28 or more! ASU DL doesn't penetrate well (115th in sacks; 118th in tackles for loss), and Indian "D" will have problems containing Dasher.
(06-Mtsu 38-ASU 10...A.20-15 M.37/211 A.45/162 A.14/35/1/146 M.11/14/0/134 M.0 A.0)
(06-Mts -4 38-10 05-MTS -5 45-7 04-MTS -6' 45-17...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 7-1)
*Florida Atlantic 23 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 20--Disturbed by ULL's serious 2nd-H meltdown in 52-21 pummeling at Arkansas State. But don't mind taking extra value with Cajuns, who should get effective option attack (5.7 ypc) going vs. permissive Florida Atlantic front 7 (4.6 ypc). Owls RS soph QB R. Smith (12 TDP, 3 ints.) is on the beam, but Lafayette (11th in rushing in nation) will minimize his chances.
(06-La.-Laf. 6-FLA. ATL. 0...L.11-10 L.37/144 F.26/87 F.18/34/2/150 L.11/21/1/84 L.1 F.2)
(06-Ull -8' 6-0 05-Fau +5' 28-10...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*LA.-MONROE 30 - Florida Intl. 10--Following bizarre 31-21 upset loss vs. North Texas (Mean Green intercepted 2 tipped passes for TDs & had 99-yd. TD pass before H!), expect UL Monroe to bounce back vs. depressed FIU squad riding 18-game losing streak. Warhawks steady RB Dawson (had 100+ YR in 10 straight until last week) regains mojo in friendly Malone Stadium.
(06-La.-Mon. 35-FL.. INTL. 0...L.16-9 L.47/162 F.21/10 F.19/36/1/200 L.15/18/0/184 L.2 F.2)
(06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29 04-Ulm -7' 43-34...SR: La.-Monroe 2-1)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21
*Southern Miss 28 - MARSHALL 27--Young, rebuilding Marshall defense getting shoved around on regular basis. But even if USM star soph RB Fletcher runs wild, Eagles won't easily distance themselves from Herd squad desperate to notch its first win. Home-field edge in Huntington still meaningful, and sr. QB Morris (1405 YP, 11 TDP, only 2 ints. last 5 games) has enough receivers to go down firing. TV--ESPN
(06-S. MISS 42-Mar. 7...S.23-12 S.44/226 M.31/150 S.14/19/0/135 M.7/14/2/129 S.0 M.2)
(06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 2-0)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OHIO STATE by 28 over Michigan State
SAN JOSE STATE Plus over Fresno State
ILLINOIS by 7 over Michigan
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 13 over Arkansas State
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21
WASHINGTON 17 - Arizona 10--Both teams beat up (check status of Arizona QB Kurt Warner, left elbow; Washington LT Samuels, leg; RT Wade, groin; and C Rabach, groin). Arizona (down to newly-signed Tim Rattay 3 ints. last week) hardly needed another QB injury, and Redskins were already missing two OL starters. Perhaps siding with Washington and its top-ranked defense (through Week Five) and the "under" might offer some benefit.
(05-Washington -3' 17-13...SR: Washington 71-44-2)
NEW ORLEANS 21 - Atlanta 20--One victory, spurred by a terrible punt snap by opponent Seattle, does not prove that the Saints are back on their playoff track of LY. They still have plenty of flaws, as do the Falcons. But Atlanta's new OL combo now has a game under its belt, and Falcs have continued to play hard for Bobby Petrino despite all their adversity TY. Atlanta gives its NFC South rival a game of it.
(06-N. ORL. 23-Atl. 3...N.19-10 N.34/146 A.23/117 N.20/28/0/180 A.12/31/0/112 N.0 A.0)
(06-N. Orl. 31-ATL. 13...A.21-20 A.45/281 N.25/95 N.21/30/0/332 A.9/24/0/52 N.0 A.0)
(06-NEW ORLEANS +3' 23-3, New Orleans +3 31-13...SR: Atlanta 44-32)
BUFFALO 16 - Baltimore 13--Neither of these teams harkens memories of Don Coryell's old San Diego Chargers. And at this stage, perhaps Kyle Boller (started last week vs. Rams) a better alternative than banged-up Steve McNair at QB for Baltimore. But we'd rather not lay points on road with Ravens, as low-octane "O" continues to stall in red zone (PK Stover 18 FGs already!), and banged-up OL started three rookie subs last week. Meanwhile, J.P. Losman (knee) might be available for Buffalo, although Dick Jauron might opt for poised Stanford rookie QB Edwards, who has produced home-dog covers his first two starts.
(06-BAL. 19-Buf. 7...Ba.18-10 Ba.30/111 Bu.14/39 Ba.22/36/1/216 Bu.20/35/2/214 Ba.0 Bu.1)
(06-BALTIMORE -9' 19-7...SR: Baltimore 2-1)
DALLAS 24 - Minnesota 20--Everyone knew Adrian Peterson was good, but last week's 224 YR and 3 TD jaunts on just 20 carries at Chicago were a revelation. This is even a bigger game for the Texas native (from Palestine, TX). And let's not forget the Vikes are 1-0-2 vs. the spread on the road TY, with their biggest loss by just 3 points. Tarvaris Jackson (no ints. in Chicago) playing more carefully, while Tony Romo has tossed nine interceptions.
(2007 Preseason: Minnesota -2' beat Dallas 23-14 at Minnesota)
(04-MINNESOTA -6 35-17...SR: Dallas 13-12)
OVER THE TOTAL New England 42 - MIAMI 20--Little seems to bother the pointspread-perfect, leadership-rich Patriots and their 38 ppg offense, with Tom Brady now up to 21 TDP and Randy Moss with 8 TDC. Worse yet for 0-6 Miami, slick former Dolphin WR/KR Wes Welker (38 recs.) & RB Sammy Morris (check status) return to face their old team, which can't stop the run and can barely slow down good passers. What veteran N.E. misses speed-wise on defense, it makes up for in intelligence (Junior Seau 3 ints.). Miami QB Cleo Lemon had two TDP & two TDR last week in Cleveland, but also two interceptions. High-octane Pats "over" 10 of last 12 games.
(06-N. ENG. 20-Miami 10...M.19-17 N.34/79 M.21/62 M.26/41/2/221 N.16/29/0/134 N.1 M.1)
(06-MIAMI 21-N. Eng. 0...M.19-12 M.31/131 N.25/123 M.18/30/0/184 N.14/28/0/66 M.0 N.2)
(06-NEW ENGLAND -9' 20-10, MIAMI +3' 21-0...SR: Miami 48-35)
NY GIANTS 23 - San Francisco 10--Whether it's sore-kneed Alex Smith or 35-year-old Trent Dilfer at QB, it's hard to envision S.F. shaking out of its offensive doldrums (less than 200 yds. of offense 4 of 5 games TY) vs. hard-charging N.Y. front seven. Giants tied for first with 17 sacks through Week Five, and rookie CB Aaron Ross adding valuable coverage ability. With foes focused on him, 49er RB Gore averaging a frustrating 61 ypg & 3.6 ypc. Eli 7-1 SU and vs. spread last 8 in October (prior to Atlanta game). Niners "under" 10 of last 14.
(05-NY Giants -10' 24-6...SR: San Francisco 17-15)
DETROIT 23 - Tampa Bay 17--Lions among the leaders in passing, but they pay for it in their Martz-designed offense, with 32 sacks allowed, 8 ints., and low-ranking ground game. Still, their firepower vs. injury-depleted T.B. offense should give them an edge on their quick turf at home. First meeting of former Bucs' DL coach Rod Marinelli vs. former boss Jon Gruden and longtime friend, def. coord. Monte Kiffin. T.B. ground game hurting (30 YR last week).
(05-TAMPA BAY -6' 17-13...SR: Detroit 26-25)
Tennessee 20 - HOUSTON 16--Dynamics of this contest could change if Vince Young (quad injury) can't make post for Tennessee, and Kerry Collins (relieved Vince last week at T.B) gets start. And if it's Collins, we probably don't have to worry about Titans prevailing in same fashion they did in last visit to Houston (V.Y.'s madcap 39-yard OT TD scramble in his "homecoming" last December). But Tennessee more likely to win games with defense (only 14 ppg) this season, and Texan QB Schaub desperate to get injured WRs A. Johnson & rookie J. Jones back in lineup to enliven host's wheezing attack.
(06-TENN. 28-Hou. 22...H.26-10 H.26/148 T.27/111 H.33/46/2/279 T.7/15/0/86 T.0 H.3)
(06-Tenn. 26-HOU. 20 (OT)...T.22-15 T.33/218 H.30/107 T.19/29/1/200 H.17/23/0/133 T.1 H.0)
(06-TENNESSEE -3 28-22, Tennessee +1 26-20 (OT)...SR: Tennessee 8-2)
Kansas City 20 - OAKLAND 16--Damon Huard's shoulder injury early last week turned out to be pretty much a mirage, as he enjoyed a 25 of 35, 2-TDP game vs. in Chiefs' 27-20 win vs. Cincy. More importantly, Larry Johnson (119 YR) got back on track in the contest, and the defense collected four sacks and two interceptions. When Oakland can't get its ground attack rolling, the Raider aerial game comes under heavy pressure (Daunte Culpepper 2 ints., 6 sacks last week).
(06-K. CITY 17-Oak. 13...K.21-18 K.37/200 O.34/133 O.15/25/1/193 K.9/16/0/92 K.0 O.0)
(06-K. City 20-OAK. 9...K.19-18 K.38/150 O.24/112 O.27/37/2/195 K.12/24/1/142 K.0 O.3)
(06-KANSAS CITY -9 17-13, Kansas City -7 20-9...SR: Kansas City 51-43-2)
CINCINNATI 27 - NY Jets 13--Bengals (LBs Ahmad Brooks & Rashad Jeanty out again with injuries last week) can't seem to get healthy on defense. Too bad Jets (29th in total defense prior to last week) can't seem to stop decent offenses when they are healthy. And N.Y. certainly can't match Cincy's firepower, especially since Jets rarely get to opposing passers (only 6 sacks, 4 ints. TY). Would like Bengals even more if RB Rudi Johnson (check status) able to rejoin WRs C.J. & T.J. on offense.
(04-NY JETS -5 31-24...SR: NY Jets 13-6)
Chicago 27 - PHILADELPHIA 20--Yes, Chicago's 2007 defense is not as dominating as LY's Super Bowl team. But whether Andy Reid's low-risk "O" (Philly 16 points or fewer in 4 of first 5) has the weaponry to capitalize, as did the Vikes with rookie RB Adrian Peterson last week, remains to be seen. A big positive for the Bears is their now more-potent offense, with Brian Griese (381 YP & 3 TDP last week vs. Vikes) making better decisions than Rex Grossman and able to better exploit speed WRs Berrian & Hester. "Totals" alert--Chicago "over" last 4 (and 16 of last 22).
(04-Philadelphia -9 19-9...SR: Chicago 25-10-1)
SEATTLE 26 - St. Louis 10--Mike Holmgren was so angry with his offense's 21-0 loss in Pittsburgh that he pulled QB Hasselbeck late in the game, and for a while it looked as if he would spontaneously erupt during last Sunday night's 28-17 home loss vs. winless New Orleans. So, with their minds properly focused, and the Rams playing without their starting LT, LG, QB, RB, one WR and one S, last week in Baltimore, the Seahawks figure to take no prisoners if given an opening. Ram sub QB Gus Frerotte had 5 ints., 1 fumble, and 4 sacks last week. (Check status of Marc Bulger.)
(06-Sea. 30-ST. LOU. 28...St.21-20 Se.28/125 St.22/59 St.26/39/1/309 Se.19/34/0/239 Se.1 St.1)
(06-SEA. 24-St. Lou. 22...Se.19-18 Se.26/160 St.20/108 St.26/40/1/191 Se.15/23/0/123 Se.2 St.0)
(06-Seattle -3 30-28, SEATTLE -3' 24-22...SR: St. Louis 10-8)
*Pittsburgh 27 - DENVER 17--Payback time for Steelers, who played Santa Claus last Nov. 5 vs. Denver, giving away the ball six times, helping Jake Plummer burn them with three TDP. Banged-up Ben Roethlisberger passed for 433 yds., but 3 ints., in the contest, which saw WR Javon Walker pick up 72 of the Broncos' 115 rush yards on one well-timed reverse. But Walker (knee; check status) has missed the last two games, and Rod Smith (PUP list) has missed them all. Broncos are last vs. the run and just 1-11 last 12 vs. spread at home! TV--NBC
(06-Denver 31-PITT 20...P.27-13 D.23/115 P.19/96 P.38/54/3/403 D.16/27/0/221 D.0 P.3)
(06-Denver +3 31-20...SR: Denver 15-9-1)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 22
*JACKSONVILLE 24 - Indianapolis 17--Jags have played the Colts about as well as anyone in recent years, going 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 in series, and hammering Indy for an amazing 375 YR in LY's meeting in Jacksonville. Choice by HC Del Rio of QB Garrard has been a wise one, as he's avoided any ints. through the first six games and has scrambled for some key first downs. Indy only 1-6 last 7 as a road favorite, and Colts figure to be at an added disadvantage if key players such as RB Addai, WR M. Harrison, and S Bob Sanders not back from their injuries. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-INDY 21-Jack. 14...J.20-14 J.40/191 I.20/63 I.14/31/0/209 J.16/28/2/106 I.0 J.0)
(06-JACK. 44-Indy 17...23-23 J.42/375 I.20/34 I.25/50/1/305 J.8/14/1/72 J.0 I.0)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -6' 21-14, JACKSONVILLE +1 44-17...SR: Indianapolis 9-3)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Indianapolis and Jacksonville on Monday Night
Indianapolis is 6-6 straight-up and 3-9 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
12-4 straight-up and 10-6 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Jacksonville is 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 84, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 117, Lost 115, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 32
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 117, Tied 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2006 Reg. Seas.: Jacksonville +1 beat Indianapolis 44-17 at Jacksonville
2006 Reg. Seas.: Indianapolis -6½ beat Jacksonville 21-14 at Indianapolis
NFL KEY RELEASES
CHICAGO by 7 over Philadelphia
JACKSONVILLE by 7 over Indianapolis
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the New England-Miami game
NFL RATINGS & POINTSPREAD RECORDS
All teams measured from the TOP RATING of zero. HFV - Home Field Value. Deduct allotted points for HFV from rating of Home Team. R - Current Power Rating. SUR - Straight-Up Won-Loss Record. PSR - Won-Loss Record vs. Pointspread. O/U-Total Over-under record (number of games that went over-number of games that went under). PF & PA - Average Points Scored For and Against. Results at Home listed under Home. Results on Road listed under Away. Teams with a bold + or - have had their ratings moved 2 points or more for the better (+) or worse (-) since last week.
TOTAL HOME AWAY
TEAM R HFV SUR PSR O/U PF-PA PSR PF-PA PSR PF-PA
Arizona 9 2 3-3 3-2-1 3-3 21-23 2-1 18-20 1-1 25-26
Atlanta 10 2 1-4 3-2 2-3 14-20 1-1 23-22 2-1 8-19
Baltimore 5 2 4-2 1-5 2-2 18-17 1-2 23-13 0-3 14-20
Buffalo 10 3 1-4 3-2 2-3 13-24 3-0 18-18 0-2 5-32
Carolina 7 2 4-2 4-2 2-4 21-18 0-2 14-27 4-0 24-14
Chicago- 8 2 2-4 1-5 4-2 20-25 0-3 20-26 1-2 19-24
Cincinnati 7 3 1-4 2-3 3-2 25-31 1-1 20-27 1-2 29-34
Cleveland 9 3 3-3 4-2 5-0 28-31 3-1 32-31 1-1 21-30
Dallas 1 3 5-1 4-2 5-1 34-24 2-1 36-30 2-1 32-18
Denver 8 1 2-3 0-5 4-1 15-27 0-3 13-28 0-2 18-26
Detroit 11 4 3-2 2-2-1 3-2 23-31 1-0 29-22 1-2 20-37
Green Bay 6 3 5-1 4-1-1 4-2 24-18 2-1 21-20 2-0 29-15
Houston 10 2 3-3 3-3 4-2 22-23 2-1 22-17 1-2 22-28
Indianapolis -2 4 5-0 3-2 3-2 33-18 3-0 37-15 0-2 26-22
Jacksonville 4 3 4-1 3-2 2-3 20-12 1-2 20-12 2-0 20-11
Kansas City 10 4 3-3 3-2-1 2-4 15-17 1-1 16-16 2-1 14-19
Miami 11 2 0-6 1-3-2 4-2 21-30 0-2 19-36 1-1 23-28
Minnesota+ 9 2 2-3 2-1-2 2-3 20-18 1-1 20-13 1-0 20-21
New England+ -6 5 6-0 6-0 5-1 38-15 3-0 37-13 3-0 40-18
New Orleans+ 6 2 1-4 1-4 2-2 16-27 0-2 14-24 1-2 17-30
NY Giants 6 3 3-2 3-2 3-1 25-25 2-1 21-21 1-1 30-31
NY Jets 11 1 1-5 1-4-1 3-2 18-26 0-2 18-27 1-2 17-24
Oakland 11 3 2-3 2-3 4-1 23-26 0-2 24-30 2-1 23-23
Philadelphia 5 3 2-3 2-3 1-4 20-16 1-1 34-21 1-2 11-14
Pittsburgh 3 4 4-1 4-1 2-3 26-9 3-0 28-6 1-1 24-14
St. Louis 15 3 0-6 1-5 1-5 12-27 1-2 20-26 0-3 4-27
San Diego 4 3 3-3 3-3 4-2 23-20 2-1 19-16 1-2 26-24
San Francisco 11 3 2-3 2-2-1 1-4 13-20 1-1 10-16 1-1 17-27
Seattle 8 3 3-3 2-4 2-4 17-17 1-2 20-18 1-2 14-16
Tampa Bay 7 3 4-2 3-2-1 2-4 18-15 2-0 23-9 1-2 13-20
Tennessee 5 2 3-2 3-1-1 0-4 19-14 1-1 20-18 2-0 18-12
Washington 8 3 3-2 2-1-2 0-4 20-14 1-1 22-13 1-0 17-15
College Analysis
KEY TO FOOTBALL ANALYSES
Home team in CAPS. *—indicates night game. Statistics after game writeups are listed in the following order: Score of game, first downs, rushing attempts/rushing yards, passes completed/passes attempted/passes intercepted/passing yards, and fumbles lost. In each statistical category the leader is listed first. Scores and pointspreads (in parentheses) are results of most recent meetings in series. P—Pick Game. SR—Series Record (official league games only), with team leading in series, number of games won, lost and tied. NL—No Line. OPR—Average Opponents’ Power Rating (at the time they met) of all TGS-rated teams played. TGS Key Releases are underlined and denoted with a star ().
Some frequently-appearing abbreviations. HC—Head Coach (also, college Homecoming Game, when listed in score line). “O”—Offense. “D”—Defense. DDs—Double Digits. OL—Offensive Line or Lineman. DL—Defensive Line or Lineman. KR-Kick Returner. o.c.—Offensive Coordinator. d.c.—Defensive Coordinator. YR—Yards Rushing. YP—Yards Passing. recs.—Receptions. ints.—Interceptions. STs—Special Teams. ypg—Yards per Game. ppg—Points per Game. ypc—Yards per Carry (or Catch, for receivers). LY—Last Year. TY—This Year. Y—Year or Years. TDP—Touchdown Passes. FA—Free Agent. SU—Straight Up. Games are listed in the Don Best rotation used in the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
All score predictions are made with Las Vegas pointspreads and over-under lines in mind. Please note: All selections indicating a preference for the underdog do not necessarily forecast the underdog as the straight-up winner of the game. A predicted victory by the favorite of less than the pointspread on the game indicates the underdog is the preferred side in the game.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 18
*South Florida 27 - RUTGERS 20--Speedy, sure-tackling South Florida stop unit hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than a year. The last? Rutgers' star RB Rice during narrow win at Tampa in Sept. 2006. With pro-caliber sr. CBs Jenkins & T. Williams locking down on Knights' blossoming soph WR Britt (23 catches for 581 yards last 5 games), swarming Bull front 7 & star soph DE Selvie (20½ tackles for loss in first 6 games!) will make Rice earn every inch TY. Stubborn host will die hard, but QB Grothe's versatility gets profitable USF (covered 11 of last 14) over the top. TV--ESPN
(06-Rutgers 24-S. FLA. 22...19-19 R.45/226 S.25/92 S.17/26/2/255 R.11/20/1/100 R.0 S.1)
(06-Rutgers -3' 24-22 05-South Florida +2' 45-31...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*Utah 24 - TCU 22--It took a few weeks, but gears are finally meshing for Utah attack that posted another 500+ yards last week vs. S. Diego St. and has uncovered the necessary infantry diversion (RB Mack 426 YR last 3) to properly complement hot QB B. Johnson. Meanwhile, TCU's "D" bearing little resemblance to recent shut 'em down Fort Worth stop units, and still not sure if and when star Frog DE Blake will reappear.
(06-UTAH 20-Tcu 7...14-14 U.36/131 T.31/81 T.15/29/0/229 U.19/32/1/223 U.0 T.3)
(06-UTAH -2 20-7 05-TCU +3' 23-20 (OT)...SR: Utah 3-1)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 19
*Northwestern 42 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 38--EMU showed a little spunk rallying from 28-0 deficit to contest Ohio U. last week, and "back door" might be open for Eagle QB Schmitt (20 of 28 passing, 210 YP & 4 TDP vs. Bobcats; check status). Respect Northwestern attack, as QB Bacher has thrown for 990 yards & 9 TDs with no ints. the last two weeks, but the Wildcats have yielded 89 points in those games. (at Detroit, MI)
(06-NWSTRN. 14-E. Mich. 6...N.15-5 N.44/156 E.28/87 N.16/26/1/110 E.9/25/2/47 N.1 E.0)
(06-NORTHWESTERN -17' 14-6...SR: Northwestern 1-0)
*CONNECTICUT 27 - Louisville 26--Last week's win at rival Cincinnati a major boost for Louisville's sagging confidence. UConn well coached & fundamentally sound. Still, Cards' star sr. QB Brohm has 23 TDP, only 4 ints., and a very bright NFL future, while Husky counterpart Lorenzen, a juco transfer, adjusting to major college action. But L'ville defense still problematic. TV--ESPN
(06-LVL. 48-Conn. 17...L.28-8 L.44/221 C.31/147 L.21/29/1/349 C.7/19/1/89 L.2 C.1)
(06-LOUISVILLE -28' 48-17 05-Louisville -15 30-20...SR: Louisville 3-0)
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20
SYRACUSE 28 - Buffalo 27--Beleaguered Syracuse HC G. Robinson & his awful Orange about as popular as foot fungus in upstate New York these days. Improving Buffalo has some good young playmakers on offense. Host has more experience on defense and a lot of desperation. Step down in class enables 'Cuse to eke out SU win.
(05-SYRACUSE -24 31-0 04-Syracuse -15 37-17...SR: EVEN 3-3-1)
Miami-Ohio 21 - TEMPLE 19--Temple enjoying life in the MAC, as the Owls are on a 2-game winning streak for the first time since 2002. QB DiMichele's three 4th-Q TD passes to rally Temple vs. Akron a sign Al Golden's team headed in right direction. Miami-O. off emotional home victory against Bowling Green (honored the late Terry Hoeppner and Ben Roethlisberger), and despite success, RedHawk attack missing some key cogs due to injuries. (05-Miami-Ohio -21 41-14...SR: Miami-Ohio 1-0)
WEST VIRGINIA 48 - Mississippi State 17--Now that rested 5-1 WV back in national title picture, prefer to lay the lumber vs. MSU squad that allowed 314 YR vs. Mounties spread attack in LY's 42-14 home loss. Bulldogs true frosh QB Carroll will be forced into many 3rd-and-long passing situations, since State's bread-and-butter ground game won't get untracked again vs. WV's toughening run defense (just 2.8 ypc, only 56 YR LY!). Croom's tiring squad (8th straight without a bye) wears down vs. explosive Mounties, who've won their two games in Morgantown TY by combined 110-31 margin.
(06-W. Va. 42-MISS. ST. 14...M.25-20 W.44/314 M.37/56 M.17/35/2/250 W.6/10/0/92 W.0 M.0)
(06-West Virginia -21 42-14...SR: West Virginia 1-0)
Penn State 22 - INDIANA 20--Prefer to count on "regression to the mean" after disparate results for these two last week. Can't see laying a premium number with Nittany Lion side that still gets uneven performances from QB Morelli and has suspended its top RB (Austin Scott). Penn State just 2-7 vs. number last 9 away from home, and Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis' speed will keep Nittany Lion defense off balance.
(04-Penn State -3' 22-18...SR: Penn State 10-0)
CLEMSON 38 - Central Michigan 26--This has been good pointspread role for rested Clemson, as Tigers' speed at skill positions usually too much for this level of foe. And vulnerable CMU defense will definitely have its hands full. Still, Chips' confident soph QB LeFevour, who's passed for 611 yards & 7 TDs and run for 246 yards & another 5 scores in just last 2 games, has enough weapons to avoid blowout. (FIRST MEETING)
WISCONSIN 38 - Northern Illinois 10--Wisconsin's embarrassing performance at Penn State should ensure a focused effort this week against injury-depleted NIU that owns just 1 win this season. Badger star RB Hill, who's been slowed by a groin injury, will get relief from backup Lance Smith (7.9 ypc, only available for home games). Banged-up Huskie defensive front yielding 4.6 ypc. (DNP...SR: Wisconsin 9-1)
Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI 23--Since disappointing Arkansas (0-3 in SEC!) still seriously misses the services of star WR Monk (embattled HC Nutt said it himself on national TV following bitter loss vs. Auburn), will "take" with hard-trying, offensively-balanced Ole Miss squad that's 5-0 as a home dog since '06. Hogs ace RB McFadden (season-low 43 YR vs. Auburn) has been bothered by sore ribs. And must give QB edge to Rebel triggerman S. Adams (58%, 12 TDs) over inconsistent Arkansas counterpart Dick (SEC-low 51%). Hiccupping Hogs 1-7-1 vs. spread last 9.
(06-ARK. 38-Miss. 3...A.15-14 A.37/141 M.31/102 A.14/18/0/205 M.13/36/0/143 A.0 M.0)
(06-ARK. -20' 38-3 05-Ark. +1 28-17 04-ARK. -9' 35-3...SR: Arkansas 29-23-1)
SOUTH CAROLINA 38 - Vanderbilt 16--USC's demanding HC Spurrier (he called his offense "putrid") will be cracking the whip after nearly blowing 21-3 halftime lead in 21-15 victory vs. N. Carolina. So expect focused 'Cocks to eventually pull away from Vandy squad lacking offensive punch (11th in SEC in scoring & total off.). Commodores' new 2-QB system not the answer vs. Carolina's confusing zone & blitz packages. Spurrier 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in SEC.
(06-S. Car. 31-VANDY 13...S.18-16 S.39/194 V.36/133 S.11/18/1/133 V.11/25/2/120 S.3 V.1)
(06-Usc -3' 31-13 05-USC -7' 35-28 04-Usc -3' 31-6...SR: South Carolina 14-2)
NAVY 33 - Wake Forest 32--This season's gridiron version of the long ago Bobby Fischer-Boris Spassky chess showdown? Whatever, we at least know Lou Holtz will be paying close attention in the ESPN studio to two of his favorite teams and coaches (Navy's Paul Johnson and Wake's Jim Grobe). Although Mid "D" appears most vulnerable unit on field, Navy option humming with QB "Kaipo" at tiller, and Deacs not as menacing when favored (5-22-2 last 29 as chalk!). (DNP...SR: Wake Forest 5-2)
GEORGIA TECH 30 - Army 10--Hard-trying Army didn't get embarrassed in earlier trips to ACC reps Wake & Boston College. No real motivation for Tech (just 5-10 last 15 as DD favorite) to pile points on Knights, and good chance for Jackets to rest some of their nicked-up starters. (DNP...SR: Georgia Tech 2-1)
AIR FORCE 24 - Wyoming 20--MWC sources continuing to sing praises of AFA and new HC Calhoun, as resourceful Falcs shut down their more aggressive shotgun package in favor of successful interpretation of old option during last week's inclement weather at Fort Collins. But QB Carney capable of going up top if necessary, and d.c. DeRuyter's well-disguised blitzes could fluster hot-and-cold Wyo QB Sween (only 7 TDP vs. 9 picks).
(06-A. Force 31-WYO. 24...A.24-14 A.70/327 W.21/77 W.13/21/0/169 A.3/7/0/40 A.1 W.2)
(06-Afa P 31-24 05-Wyo. +2' 29-28 04-WYO. -2' 43-26...SR: Air Force 23-20-2)
WESTERN MICHIGAN 34 - Ball State 31--Recent play of WMU QB Hiller (830 YP, 7 TDP, just 1 int. last 3 games) points to Broncos winning a shootout in this one. WMU RB Bonds (330 YR last 3) helping to balance attack, and Ball State had trouble with Western Kentucky last week (allowed 411 total yards to Hilltoppers & only led 14-12 at the half).
(06-W. Mich. 41-BALL ST. 27...B.23-20 W.38/166 B.29/9 B.28/38/3/360 W.20/24/0/291 W.2 B.0)
(06-Wmu -3 41-27 05-Bsu +11' 60-57 (OT) 04-BSU +3' 41-14...SR: Western Michigan 19-14)
Kansas 27 - COLORADO 26--It's still a bit unclear what to make of Kansas, with its five blowout home wins over weak opposition, and its one narrow road victory (30-24 at K-State), in which KU trailed in the 4th Q. It is clear that young CU is improved TY, with 5-8 sr. dynamo Hugh Charles having strung together four straight 100-yd. rushing games, the defense usually holding its own (ask Oklahoma), and QB Hawkins (despite 12 ints.) enlivening the offense.
(06-KANSAS 20-Colo. 15...C.19-14 C.43/172 K.33/161 K.18/29/3/180 C.10/27/2/144 K.1 C.0)
(06-KANSAS -2 20-15 05-COLO. -15' 44-13 04-Colo. +2' 30-21...SR: Colorado 41-22-3)
Memphis 36 - RICE 31--Not much to recommend in battle between these C-USA bottom-feeders. Memphis 2-14 SU vs. Bowl Subdivision foes last 1+ seasons. But Rice deeply depressed after giving up 21 unanswered 4th-Q points & 748 total yards in last week's come-from-ahead loss to rival Houston. (FIRST MEETING)
Tulane 23 - SMU 21--Green Wave in transition (especially on offense), but also showing some spunk under new HC Toledo. Dallas scouts tell us SMU will probably be adjusting to their own new mentor next season, as Mustangs' 1-5 start finds HC Bennett back under heavy fire after promising 2006 campaign. Tulane RB Forte has 787 YR last 4.
(06-Smu 33-TULANE 28...S.24-22 S.38/98 T.21/M33 T.30/50/0/398 S.23/40/1/261 S.0 T.1)
(06-Smu -3 33-28 05-Tulane -3' 31-10...SR: Tulane 10-5)
Nevada 27 - UTAH STATE 24--WAC sources have alerted us to fundamental changes in Logan that have made still-winless USU at least a bit more competitive vs. line (covered last 2, and 3 of last 5). New o.c. Dickey (ex-North Texas HC) hellbent on establishing run, which has effectively slowed pace of games and kept still-vulnerable Utag "D" off field. Chris Ault's Nevada Pistol still adjusting to new triggerman Kaepernick (making just 2nd start).
(06-NEV. 42-Utah St. 0...N.21-13 N.44/202 U.38/125 N.12/20/0/140 U.9/21/3/82 N.2 U.0)
(06-NEVADA -29 42-0 05-Nevada -9' 30-24...SR: Nevada 13-4)
Tennessee 27 - ALABAMA 23--Resurgent UT (3 straight wins & covers) very much alive in SEC East. Vols now-punishing ground attack (401 YR last two games) will allow refined, well-protected sr. QB Ainge (67%, 21 TDs, just 3 ints., sacked only twice) to work play-action vs. depth-shy Bama defense vulnerable at CB spot opposite Castille (Bama has allowed SEC-high 12 TDP). Vols possess hotter kicking game with RS frosh PK Lincoln (12 of 13 FGs) & P Colquitt (43 yd. avg.). TV--CBS
(06-TENN. 16-Ala. 13...T.17-11 T.21/57 A.30/53 T.28/46/3/302 A.13/29/0/158 T.0 A.0)
(06-TENN. -11 16-13 05-ALA. -3' 6-3 04-TENN. -7 17-13...SR: Alabama 44-38-7)
Texas A&M 30 - NEBRASKA 24--With both teams coming off humiliating losses, will side with the more stable situation. NU's defense (104th in the nation) failing to stop just about everyone, which is bad news vs. the run-oriented spread-option offense of Aggies, ably led by mistake-minimizing QB Stephen McGee (only 6 ints. last 1+Ys). Husker offense failing frequently vs. quality foes, and discouraged defense being accused of not going all out.
(06-Neb. 28-TEX. A&M 27...N.19-13 T.27/155 N.38/123 T.19/32/0/288 N.21/36/1/267 N.0 T.0)
(06-Nebraska -1 28-27...SR: Nebraska 10-2)
Oklahoma 48 - IOWA STATE 13--With ISU's "small-play" offense fighting to gain just a few first downs (much less touchdowns) and haunted by giveaways (19), Cyclone defense reaping the whirlwind (56-3 loss vs. Texas last week). To make matters worse, OU has more offensive talent and depth than UT and is back in national title hunt in a big way.
(06-OKLA. 34-Iowa St. 9...O.17-12 O.34/185 I.29/89 O.16/27/0/195 I.14/25/2/149 O.0 I.0)
(06-OKLAHOMA -19 34-9...SR: Oklahoma 66-5-2)
MISSOURI 42 - Texas Tech 31--With Mizzou (8-1-1 vs. number last 10 as host) now selling out in Columbia and QB Chase Daniel expert at keeping the chains moving with his scrambles and darts to dual TEs Coffman & Rucker (78 combined receptions), will side with Tigers in this shootout. TT QB Harrell (74%, 31 TDs) & WR sensation Crabtree (78 recs., 17 TDs) will do their damage. But Red Raider offense loses a bit of its edge away from home.
(06-Mo. 38-TEX. TECH 21...T.29-18 M.40/133 T.16/78 T.44/61/2/378 M.15/22/1/173 M.0 T.3)
(06-Missouri +5 38-21...SR: Missouri 4-2)
California 29 - UCLA 20--Difficult call without knowing status of both QB situations. But with Ben Olson out, UCLA's problems more acute if Patrick Cowan (knee) can't make post, as Bruin "O" better off snapping directly to RBs Bell or Markey than entrusting walk-on Bethel-Thompson with the controls. Cal at least in better shape if QB Longshore (ankle) sidelined, as backup Riley moved Bears smartly before last-second brain cramp vs. Oregon State last week.
(06-CAL. 38-Ucla 24...C.24-23 U.34/187 C.34/167 U.22/40/2/329 C.20/24/0/266 C.1 U.0)
(06-CAL. -17' 38-24 05-UCLA -1 47-40 04-CAL. -16 45-28...SR: UCLA 48-28-1)
Southern Cal 26 - NOTRE DAME 13--No surprise if Charlie Weis pulls out every trick in the book (get ready for the green jerseys) as ND tries to break humbling 5-game losing streak vs. its hated old rival. But doubt current Irish QBs Clausen or Sharpley about to "wake up the echoes" this week. Still, after life-and-death struggles vs. Pac-10's bottom tier, and injury list growing exponentially (QB Booty could miss another start), not too comfy laying points with underachieving SC bunch that's just 2-10 last 12 as DD chalk. TV--NBC
(06-S. CAL 44-N. Dame 24...S.21-18 S.32/139 N.31/130 N.22/45/0/274 S.17/28/2/265 S.0 N.1)
(06-USC -8' 44-24 05-Usc -12 34-31 04-USC -23' 41-10...SR: Notre Dame 42-31-5)
FLORIDA STATE 16 - Miami-Florida 14--Remember when this blood feud had major national championship implications nearly every season? That luster might be gone, but bitter feelings and lots of speed on both defenses remain. Decision will likely hinge on which team gets a couple plays (or at least fewer mistakes) from its struggling QBs. Superior WRs tilt odds slightly in favor of host Florida State. But both teams struggling to score points. REG. TV--ABC
(06-Fla. St. 13-MIAMI 10...F.9-8 M.26/2 F.25/1 F.16/32/1/175 M.18/27/1/132 F.0 M.0)
(06-Fsu +3' 13-10 05-FSU +3 10-7 04-MIAMI -2 16-10 (OT)...SR: Florida St. 27-24)
Oregon 30 - WASHINGTON 24--Pointspread growing after last week's disparate efforts. And though playmaking RS frosh QB Locker giving U-Dub hope for the future, deficiencies in Husky passing game and defense becoming harder for Ty Willingham to camouflage as season progresses. But with Oregon down a few key playmakers (WR Colvin & RB J. Johnson out), Ducks might be hard-pressed to extend margin vs. old northwest rival.
(06-ORE. 34-Wash. 14...O.31-10 O.54/316 W.21/13 O.18/30/2/138 W.15/34/1/125 O.1 W.0)
(06-ORE. -14' 34-14 05-ORE. -16' 45-21 04-ORE. -20 31-6...SR: Washington 58-36-4)
OHIO STATE 40 - Michigan State 12--Michigan State attack has been impressive, as Spartans have averaged 42 ppg in 3 Big Ten games. However, Ohio State is the cream of the crop in the conference, and Buckeyes own the top-rated defense in the nation. OSU QB Boeckman 67% last 4 games & Buckeyes have handled Michigan St., covering last 4 in series. LSU's upset loss will serve to focus newly named No. 1 Ohio State. REGIONAL TV--ABC
(06-Ohio St. 38-MICH. ST. 7...O.20-13 O.44/182 M.30/63 O.16/24/0/239 M.19/30/1/135 O.1 M.0)
(06-Osu -14 38-7 05-OSU -6' 35-24 04-Osu -1 32-19...SR: Ohio State 25-12)
MARYLAND 23 - Virginia 13--Lightly-regarded Virginia has quietly won 6 straight, as Cavs' veteran defense hasn't allowed more than 3 TDs in any game this season. However, Maryland on recent uptick of its own. And rested Terps have found solid game manager in soph QB Turner to go with productive sr. RB duo of Lattimore & Ball. Poor-traveling UVa (just 9-23 vs. spread last 32 as visitor) lacks quality WRs.
(06-Mary. 28-VA. 26...V.19-17 V.35/181 M.34/174 V.13/21/1/243 M.17/28/1/171 M.0 V.1)
(06-Mary. -3' 28-26 05-MARY. +3' 45-33 04-VA. -14 16-0...SR: Maryland 41-28-2)
Bowling Green 27 - KENT STATE 24--Bowling Green HC Gregg Brandon called his team's loss to Miami-O. one of the most embarrassing games he's ever coached. Expect Falcons to come out with a much better effort this week, with Brandon working his OL into a frenzy after that group yielded 6 sacks against Miami. BG pass attack rebounds behind QB Sheehan & WRs Partridge & Barnes.
(06-Kent St. 38-B. GRN. 3...B.17-16 K.38/216 B.45/157 K.14/22/0/141 B.15/31/3/125 K.0 B.3)
(06-Kent St. +7 38-3 05-B. Green -11 24-14...SR: Bowling Green 52-16-6)
UCF 40 - Tulsa 33--Bullet-riddled UCF happy to be back at new Bright House home digs after being strafed for 116 points (!) in losses at E. Carolina & S. Florida. Smart Tulsa sr. QB P. Smith (369 ypg passing) will do damage. But, after being stuffed by stingy South Florida defense, Knights' jr. RB K. Smith (172 ypg rushing prior to last week) gets back on track vs. much more malleable Golden Hurricane (permitting 44 ppg in last 5).
(05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: Tulsa 1-0)
EAST CAROLINA 30 - North Carolina State 21--Pirates (134 points in last 3 games!) showing considerable offensive clout. Banged-up ECU defense not getting many stops, however. Sloppy State (just 5 takeaways vs. 22 giveaways!) has had extra week to try to clean up its act. But Pirates always give extra effort vs. the men from Raleigh.
(06-E. Car. 21-NCSU 16...E.20-13 E.38/124 N.29/107 E.14/29/0/220 N.17/28/1/186 E.0 N.0)
(06-Ecu +3 21-16 04-Ncs -21' 52-14...SR: North Carolina State 14-10)
ARIZONA 26 - Stanford 24--Arizona's bipolar performance pattern makes Cats a particularly difficult read, but recent history indicates Mike Stoops' bunch not to be trusted as chalk (just 2-6 in role since '04). Meanwhile, poised soph QB Pritchard has proven a defibrillator of sorts for Jim Harbaugh's version of West Coast "O," and playmaking Stanford wideouts Bradford, Moore, & Sherman can make UA "D" pay for its gambling tactics.
(06-Ariz. 20-STAN. 7...A.16-4 A.51/220 S.19/M6 A.10/13/1/74 S.8/13/0/58 A.0 S.1)
(06-Ariz. -3' 20-7 05-Stan. +4' 20-16...SR: Arizona 13-9)
San Jose State 26 - FRESNO STATE 27--Late collapse vs. potent Hawaii notwithstanding, October version of San Jose a lot better than September edition, as shrewd HC Tomey has patiently mixed and matched personnel to compensate for early spate of injuries. And thanks to its own enhanced infantry presence, Fresno getting back in groove as well. But with Spartan QB Tafralis (300+ YP last 4) firing away, SJS extremely live dog.
(06-SJSU 24-Fres. St. 14...F.23-17 S.36/187 F.36/154 S.15/27/1/216 F.21/37/4/215 S.1 F.0)
(06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7 04-Fsu -26 62-28...SR: Fresno State 35-33-3)
*Houston 34 - UAB 27--Birmingham scouts impressed by moxie rebuilding Blazers (4 straight covers) are displaying under new HC Callaway. Houston should eventually ride its well-balanced offense (748 yards last week!) to victory, but hard-fighting host won't make it easy. (04-UAB -9' 20-7...SR: UAB 4-1)
*Florida 34 - KENTUCKY 23--Kudos to HC Brooks & his undaunted UK squad for upsetting No. 1 ranked LSU. But would still rather lay price with refreshed, defensively-superior Florida squad that hasn't lost in series since 1986. With reliable WR Caldwell back in lineup, Gators versatile, bullish soph QB Tebow (500 YR, 66%, SEC-leading 326 ypg total offense) will do plenty of business vs. somewhat undersized, yielding Cat defense (last in SEC in rush "D"; 26 ppg, 44% on 3rd down) that must perform at max intensity for 3rd straight week. Crafty UF mentor Meyer has never dropped 3 straight.
(06-FLA. 26-Ky. 7...F.24-17 F.38/235 K.22/39 F.16/28/1/279 K.26/38/0/210 F.1 K.0)
(06-FLA. -26' 26-7 05-Fla. -23 49-28 04-FLA. -18' 20-3...SR: Florida 40-17)
*Boise State 31 - LOUISIANA TECH 17--La Tech sure not scoring many style points these days, and HC Dooley resorting to desperate measures (more-mobile QB Mosley got start last week vs. NMS before former starter Champion bailed him out in relief) to kick-start "O." So, outscoring potent Boise probably out of question. Yet Broncos rarely take their "blue carpet" KO power on road, and improved Bulldog "D" can keep hosts from humiliation.
(06-BOISE ST. 55-La. Tech 14...B.24-20 B.42/265 L.35/141 B.15/23/0/224 L.17/35/1/163 B.3 L.1)
(06-BSU -35' 55-14 05-Bsu -6' 30-13 04-BSU -24' 55-14...SR: Boise St. 5-4)
*PURDUE 27 - Iowa 16--Iowa reached back for superior home effort against youthful Illinois, but facing veteran Purdue QB Curtis Painter and mature Boiler spread attack on road will be a tougher challenge for the Hawkeyes. Iowa offense missing too many pieces due to injury & suspension to expect much scoring, and Boilermaker "D" stepping way down in class after facing potent Michigan & Ohio State in last two games.
(06-IOWA 47-Purdue 17...I.25-24 I.40/286 P.36/202 P.23/48/3/254 I.17/23/0/253 I.3 P.0)
(06-IOWA -11 47-17 05-Iowa +4' 34-17 04-IOWA P 23-21...SR: Purdue 44-32-4)
*Ohio 30 - TOLEDO 26--Ohio HC Solich got his team back on track last week as both star RB Kalvin McRae (170 YR) and QB Brad Bower (232 YP, 3 TD passes) turned in their finest performances of the season in 48-point output vs. EMU. The Bobcat OL looked much more efficient, allowing only 1 sack and opening holes for McRae. Injured Toledo "D" continues to implode (34 points vs. Liberty, 43 at Buffalo; 43 ppg TY).
(05-Toledo -10' 30-21 04-TOLEDO -13' 31-13...SR: Toledo 29-19-1)
*Texas 52 - BAYLOR 16--Last week's 56-3 UT outpouring at Iowa State a bad omen for Baylor, which has lost last four at Waco to Longhorns by a combined 229-10 count! With new talent on Texas "D" showing signs of jelling behind DTs Okam & Lokey, it's hard to see unbalanced Bear offense (111th rushing) offering relief for beleaguered defense.
(06-TEXAS 63-Bay. 31...T.22-17 T.37/162 B.11/27 B.26/48/1/320 T.21/32/1/275 T.0 B.4)
(06-TEXAS -27 63-31 05-Texas -29 62-0 04-TEXAS -38 44-14...SR: Texas 70-22-4)
*OKLAHOMA STATE 31 - Kansas State 22--Credit K-State's Ron Prince for developing fine STs (11 TDs in L1+Ys) and a resourceful offense (e.g., TDs on reverses, RB passes). But he admits the Wildcat defense is neither especially big, nor fast, nor deep. So the versatile OSU offense--benefiting from the change to QB Zac Robinson five games ago--should capture the day. RB Savage (212 YR at Nebraska) & 6-4 WR Bowman (44 recs.) could dominate.
(06-KSU 31-Osu 27...O.19-14 O.41/193 K.36/180 K.10/15/0/177 O.14/22/1/138 K.0 O.0)
(06-KANSAS STATE +2' 31-27...SR: Oklahoma State 33-22)
*Cincinnati 37 - PITTSBURGH 19--Bearcats' bubble finally burst last week in home loss to Louisville. But count on energetic HC Kelly to get Cincy quickly back in win column. His sr. QB Mauk has substantial experience & mobility edges over Pitt's touted but still-learning true frosh counterpart Bostick. And the attacking Bearcat defense makes a lot more plays than passive Panther stop unit (just 2 takeaways last 4 games).
(06-Pitt 33-CINCY 15...C.16-13 P.35/90 C.30/35 P.11/21/0/267 C.25/40/2/221 P.3 C.1)
(06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 6-0)
*ILLINOIS 34 - Michigan 27--Will jump back on Illinois bandwagon now that Illini return home to Champaign-Urbana, where they've already handled Penn State & Wisconsin in '07. Key Michigan offensive cog RB Hart (and his backup) might not be 100% due to ankle injuries suffered vs. Purdue, and Wolverine offensive outburst shouldn't mask fact that Michigan lacks a top-25 defense. In speedy Juice Williams & Eddie McGee, Illini has type of escapability at QB that gives Wolverine "D" problems. (04-Mic. -18' 30-19...SR: Mic. 65-21-2)
*NEW MEXICO STATE 28 - Idaho 23--Recommend treading lightly, as both starting QBs banged-up (see Special Ticker). But would give nod to more competitive Idaho squad that boasts the premier rusher in elusive 5-8 RS frosh D. Jackson (786 YR, 5.6 ypc). Note, Vandals have covered 5 straight in series, while Aggies have defeated an FBS squad by more than a TD just once since Nov. '04.
(06-IDAHO 28-Nmsu 20...I.23-15 I.42/151 N.17/31 N.25/41/2/342 I.19/27/1/298 I.0 N.0)
(06-IDAHO -1 28-20 05-Idaho +5' 38-37 (OT)...SR: Idaho 10-3)
*LSU 20 - Auburn 16--Sure, revenge-minded LSU in doubly-angry mood after dropping from coveted but hard-to-maintain No. 1 spot. But still suggest "taking" with coming Auburn (4 straight wins & covers), which has thrived in this role (see Looking For An Angle). Without a fully healthy WR Doucet, doubt somewhat-hampered LSU QB Flynn (high ankle sprain) makes many big plays vs. fast, deep Auburn stop unit (16 ppg, 279 ypg). LSU's loaded "D" eager to atone for Kentucky performance, but Auburn's tough, savvy field general Cox & steady RBs Tate & Lester maintain enough ball control for another low-scoring series defensive struggle.
(06-AUBURN 7-Lsu 3...L.16-13 A.38/72 L.23/42 L.20/37/0/269 A.11/20/1/110 A.0 L.0)
(06-AUBURN -3' 7-3 05-LSU -6 20-17 (OT) 04-AUBURN -1' 10-9...SR: LSU 21-19-1)
*New Mexico 33 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17--Although you don't hear Stan Verrett or Scott Van Pelt talking much about New Mexico on ESPN SportsCenter, Lobos' growing prowess no secret in MWC. And Rocky Long's unorthodox 3-3-5 defense has created all sorts of problems for bumbling SDSU in recent years (UNM 6 straight series wins and covers). Poor-tackling Aztec "D" still springing leaks fore (5.0 ypc) and aft (304 ypg thru air!).
(06-N. MEX. 41-Sdsu 14...S.25-14 N.32/214 S.34/104 S.27/49/3/327 N.9/20/0/87 N.0 S.1)
(06-UNM -10' 41-14 05-Unm +3 47-24 04-UNM -5 19-9...SR: San Diego State 20-13)
*UNLV 23 - Colorado St. 16--Pick the spot where snakebit CSU breaks debilitating 13-game losing streak? Not yet, as physical UNLV front seven usually tough vs. the run. However, will note that Rams last win coincidentally was vs. Rebs more than a year ago (October 7, 2006)!
(06-Colo. St. 28-UNLV 7...C.23-14 C.43/130 U.22/52 C.23/28/0/257 U.19/38/1/198 C.1 U.0)
(06-CSU -17 28-7 05-Csu -15 31-27 04-CSU -6' 45-10...SR: Colorado State 10-4-1)
ADDED GAMES
TROY 47 - North Texas 22--Doubt UNT catches the same breaks (a pair of tipped interceptions for scores, and a 99-yard "bumper pool" TD pass from QB Vizza to WR Fitzgerald) it did to score three 1st-H TDs vs. ULM week ago. QB Haugabook & potent Troy spread ready to torch 118th-ranked Mean Green "D" that's been lit up by every capable "O" it has faced.
(06-TROY 14-N. Texas 6...N.12-11 T.39/142 N.35/83 N.11/25/0/147 T.13/22/1/101 T.1 N.0)
(06-TROY -10' 14-6 05-Troy +2 13-10...SR: Troy 3-1)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 32 - Arkansas State 19--With MTSU's dynamic true frosh QB Dasher (410 total yards last week at Memphis!) making all of Santa's reindeer proud, no reason hot Blue Raiders (covered last 3) can't continue curious series dominance over ASU. MTSU has won and covered last 4 meetings, the last 3 by 28 or more! ASU DL doesn't penetrate well (115th in sacks; 118th in tackles for loss), and Indian "D" will have problems containing Dasher.
(06-Mtsu 38-ASU 10...A.20-15 M.37/211 A.45/162 A.14/35/1/146 M.11/14/0/134 M.0 A.0)
(06-Mts -4 38-10 05-MTS -5 45-7 04-MTS -6' 45-17...SR: Middle Tenn. St. 7-1)
*Florida Atlantic 23 - LA.-LAFAYETTE 20--Disturbed by ULL's serious 2nd-H meltdown in 52-21 pummeling at Arkansas State. But don't mind taking extra value with Cajuns, who should get effective option attack (5.7 ypc) going vs. permissive Florida Atlantic front 7 (4.6 ypc). Owls RS soph QB R. Smith (12 TDP, 3 ints.) is on the beam, but Lafayette (11th in rushing in nation) will minimize his chances.
(06-La.-Laf. 6-FLA. ATL. 0...L.11-10 L.37/144 F.26/87 F.18/34/2/150 L.11/21/1/84 L.1 F.2)
(06-Ull -8' 6-0 05-Fau +5' 28-10...SR: EVEN 1-1)
*LA.-MONROE 30 - Florida Intl. 10--Following bizarre 31-21 upset loss vs. North Texas (Mean Green intercepted 2 tipped passes for TDs & had 99-yd. TD pass before H!), expect UL Monroe to bounce back vs. depressed FIU squad riding 18-game losing streak. Warhawks steady RB Dawson (had 100+ YR in 10 straight until last week) regains mojo in friendly Malone Stadium.
(06-La.-Mon. 35-FL.. INTL. 0...L.16-9 L.47/162 F.21/10 F.19/36/1/200 L.15/18/0/184 L.2 F.2)
(06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29 04-Ulm -7' 43-34...SR: La.-Monroe 2-1)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 21
*Southern Miss 28 - MARSHALL 27--Young, rebuilding Marshall defense getting shoved around on regular basis. But even if USM star soph RB Fletcher runs wild, Eagles won't easily distance themselves from Herd squad desperate to notch its first win. Home-field edge in Huntington still meaningful, and sr. QB Morris (1405 YP, 11 TDP, only 2 ints. last 5 games) has enough receivers to go down firing. TV--ESPN
(06-S. MISS 42-Mar. 7...S.23-12 S.44/226 M.31/150 S.14/19/0/135 M.7/14/2/129 S.0 M.2)
(06-USM -7 42-7 05-Usm -7 27-24 (OT)...SR: Southern Miss 2-0)
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OHIO STATE by 28 over Michigan State
SAN JOSE STATE Plus over Fresno State
ILLINOIS by 7 over Michigan
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE by 13 over Arkansas State
Pointwise
Top 3 College Plays Last 5 Weeks 11-4
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas State RATING: 1 37-20
TEXAS over Baylor RATING: 1 53-13
AUBURN over Lsu RATING: 2 20-23
EAST CAROLINA over No Caro State RATING: 3 37-17
OKLAHOMA over Iowa State RATING: 4 48-10
NEW MEXICO over San Diego State RATING: 4 34-13
HOUSTON over Uab RATING: 5 41-17
TENNESSEE over Alabama RATING: 5 24-19
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 2 38-13
ATLANTA over New Orleans RATING: 3 18-19
DENVER over Pittsburgh RATING: 4 22-20
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis RATING: 4 26-23
BUFFALO over Baltimore RATING: 5 17-16
Top 3 College Plays Last 5 Weeks 11-4
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas State RATING: 1 37-20
TEXAS over Baylor RATING: 1 53-13
AUBURN over Lsu RATING: 2 20-23
EAST CAROLINA over No Caro State RATING: 3 37-17
OKLAHOMA over Iowa State RATING: 4 48-10
NEW MEXICO over San Diego State RATING: 4 34-13
HOUSTON over Uab RATING: 5 41-17
TENNESSEE over Alabama RATING: 5 24-19
NFL KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND over Miami RATING: 2 38-13
ATLANTA over New Orleans RATING: 3 18-19
DENVER over Pittsburgh RATING: 4 22-20
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis RATING: 4 26-23
BUFFALO over Baltimore RATING: 5 17-16
LMAO - There is Chris, Chad, and Drew Jordan - dragging MJ'S name thru the mud
Chris Jordan
ALCS Winner
100♦ RED SOX (LIST Wakefield)
If there were ever a time for the best team in Major League Baseball to nab a must-win game – tonight is the night. And we count on Tim Wakefield to lead us to the promise land, as he makes his 2007 postseason debut for the Red Sox.
The 41-year-old Wakefield is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career-League Championship Series starts. His experience, and ability to miss in those knucklers, will keep the Tribe off-balance long enough for Manny, Youk, Papi and the rest of this lineup to have their way with Paul Byrd.
Chris Jordan
ALCS Winner
100♦ RED SOX (LIST Wakefield)
If there were ever a time for the best team in Major League Baseball to nab a must-win game – tonight is the night. And we count on Tim Wakefield to lead us to the promise land, as he makes his 2007 postseason debut for the Red Sox.
The 41-year-old Wakefield is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career-League Championship Series starts. His experience, and ability to miss in those knucklers, will keep the Tribe off-balance long enough for Manny, Youk, Papi and the rest of this lineup to have their way with Paul Byrd.
BettingResource
Oct 16: NHL: Atlanta - Philadelphia
Pick: Ot included: Atlanta win Odd: 2.62
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 16: NHL: Minnesota - Los Angeles
Pick: Ot included: Los Angeles win Odd: 2.35
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 16: NHL: Colorado - Calgary
Pick: Ot included: Over 5.5 Odd: 1.87
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 16: NHL: Atlanta - Philadelphia
Pick: Ot included: Atlanta win Odd: 2.62
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 16: NHL: Minnesota - Los Angeles
Pick: Ot included: Los Angeles win Odd: 2.35
Risk: 7 units Return:
Oct 16: NHL: Colorado - Calgary
Pick: Ot included: Over 5.5 Odd: 1.87
Risk: 7 units Return:
Wunderdog Comp
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota -155
The Kings have lost five straight while the Wild are undefeated at 5-0. Minnesota has given up a total of 4 goals so far while LA has allowed 27! Minnesota swept the Kings 4-0 last season and no reason to expect that LA can somehow pull this one out. Losing home teams coming off two straight home losses by 2+ goals are just 11-28 over the past five seasons in the NHL. The Kings are 4-19 at home vs. winning teams now dating back to last season including 3-14 when in the +100 to +150 range. Against teams that are excellent against the power play (allowing under 15% PP conversion), the Kings are 1-14 at home.
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota -155
The Kings have lost five straight while the Wild are undefeated at 5-0. Minnesota has given up a total of 4 goals so far while LA has allowed 27! Minnesota swept the Kings 4-0 last season and no reason to expect that LA can somehow pull this one out. Losing home teams coming off two straight home losses by 2+ goals are just 11-28 over the past five seasons in the NHL. The Kings are 4-19 at home vs. winning teams now dating back to last season including 3-14 when in the +100 to +150 range. Against teams that are excellent against the power play (allowing under 15% PP conversion), the Kings are 1-14 at home.
