in football, if you are taking the dog with the line of 2.5

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

wouldn't you always bet the moneyline? wouldn't you always take the +120 or +125 rather than the +2.5 -110? what does the +2.5 get you?

this seems like a no-brainer to me.

lifexpired · Oct 16, 2007

agree with you if you are talking exclusively NFL/NCAA, though the +2' is more valuable in CFL with the differing dynamics

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

thanks eric

D2bets · Oct 16, 2007

blue edwards said:
wouldn't you always bet the moneyline? wouldn't you always take the +120 or +125 rather than the +2.5 -110? what does the +2.5 get you?

this seems like a no-brainer to me.

6.926% difference between -110 and +120. I think if you look at the numbers, in most cases it is not going to land on the fave by 1 or 2 more often than that. Might be a different conclusion if you can get reduced juice maybe -102 on that +2.5.

Brooklynbomber · Oct 16, 2007

was just thinking about this myself. agreed.

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

D2bets said:
6.926% difference between -110 and +120. I think if you look at the numbers, in most cases it is not going to land on the fave by 1 or 2 more often than that. Might be a different conclusion if you can get reduced juice maybe -102 on that +2.5.

who needs a calculator or statistics book with this guy around... :103631605

cnote · Oct 16, 2007

in football ML is the way to play this. in hoops I would still be in the ML although some would prefer the pts

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

c note said:
in football ML is the way to play this. in hoops I would still be in the ML although some would prefer the pts

hoops is completely different. i always take the points in hoops. 2.5 points is big in hoops...means almost nothing in foots.

t3a · Oct 16, 2007

It protects you in college in case they go 3 OTs and the favorite scores first and converts to go up 8 and then your dog scores but misses the conversion.

How about the TCU-Stanford game last week, TCU took a safety up by 4 with less than 10 seconds to play.
Although that line wasnt 2.5. So there.

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

t3a said:
It protects you in college in case they go 3 OTs and the favorite scores first and converts to go up 8 and then your dog scores but misses the conversion.

How about the TCU-Stanford game last week, TCU took a safety up by 4 with less than 10 seconds to play.
Although that line wasnt 2.5. So there.

i said almost nothing. of course one can point to examples where it comes into play. the question is, is it worth 30-35 cents?

i think not.

prodigy · Oct 16, 2007

blue:

you are on the right path. if you also apply the same rule to basketball games, you will save yourself a TON of juice as well as bring back (+105) (+110) and (+125) more than enough time to withstand the one or two times in a season when a 2 point underdog loses SU, but somehow manages to cover the number. you have a big advantage on the books because you are basically taking juice-Bonus Bets with the chance of a small positive return in games that are basically pick 'em. over the course of the season, you will be very happy with the results. this type of approach has been a staple of my capping for years.

TTinCO · Oct 16, 2007

blue edwards said:
i said almost nothing. of course one can point to examples where it comes into play. the question is, is it worth 30-35 cents?

i think not.

I agree. Granted, you may get burned every once in a while, but not 30-35 cents worth.

(CFL exclude)

lifexpired · Oct 16, 2007

blue edwards said:
hoops is completely different. i always take the points in hoops. 2.5 points is big in hoops...means almost nothing in foots.

2' is much more valuable in college hoops IMHO, key #s for nba are 6 to 8, in college, the key #s are 2-4

(some include 5 and 9 for nba and widen range for hoops, but the above is the general gist)

TheWolf · Oct 16, 2007

Why not just by the 1/2 point to get the +3?

blueedwards · Oct 16, 2007

The Wolf said:
Why not just by the 1/2 point to get the +3?

stop talking crazy.

TheWolf · Oct 16, 2007

blue edwards said:
stop talking crazy.

Seriously,why not? This has worked for me a great deal. Buying on or off key numbers. I know its extra juice Blue, but I only do it on key numbers. I kept track ofthis last year and the +/- ratewas real similar over the course of the season.

raiders72 · Oct 17, 2007

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

HinesWard86 · Oct 17, 2007

In football, I totally agree Blue.

However, any time I think of this convo in basketball I remember that UConn-Duke semifinal game a few years back where Duhon hit that three to have Duke cover a short spread. Didn't Vegas claim to win like $100 million or something ridiculous just off that game alone?

quantumleap · Oct 17, 2007

The Wolf said:
Seriously,why not? This has worked for me a great deal. Buying on or off key numbers. I know its extra juice Blue, but I only do it on key numbers. I kept track ofthis last year and the +/- ratewas real similar over the course of the season.

The books aren't going to throw money away by allowing people to buy points to the bettor's advantage. They will insure that the price you pay from +2.5 to +3 will not win in the long run.

Addict101 · Oct 17, 2007

For football, if I'm thinking about a dog +3 i'll just take the moneyline. Fuck pushes.

in football, if you are taking the dog with the line of 2.5

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