Need advice on a CLE/BOS par hegde - PLEASE

WillWalk · Oct 18, 2007

I haven’t asked for advice on this sight for years and t but I’ve got a play I could use some help on.
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I have a 4 team par 300 to win 2000 and all but one piece has come in – that is BOS to win the ALCS. Would have been nice to see them run away with it but they didn’t and here I am trying to work the best hedge. I don’t mind opinions on sides being a little part of the equation (CLE in gm 5, BOS in gm 7, etc) but mostly I’m looking for the best math to evenly taken advantage now that the 2000 ain’t gonna happen without a risk I rather not make. Considering the initial 300, isn’t it about 650 a game on CLE ML?
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Any thoughts are welcome and the know-it-all, high-rolling young guns can heave all the “hedging is for pussys” they want – it’s all part of the fun.

scott366870 · Oct 18, 2007

sorry buddy ur screwed! Take the little hit and keep on pluggin! sorry to be the bearer of bad news!:sad3:

bigdummy315 · Oct 18, 2007

Personally, I would put $300 on Cleveland tonight at slight plus money to wipe out the original bet. Then if Boston does win tonight you can decide what to do Saturday. I believe if the Sox win tonight then they are in good shape to win both in Boston. Cleveland wants to win here and does not want to travel to Boston.

djmatt · Oct 18, 2007

I wouldn't put the 300 on Cleveland..

I'd take 150 on cleveland.. and wait for the game.. if bosox take the game here you're only out the straight 150... and still riding you're parlay.. i agree they do need to be in boston to accomplish any serious beating.. but they can scrape by and take this one here.. they only had one real terrible inning last game.. they make up for it

just don't take another parlay here.. maybe an if bet with cleveland for 150.. and a series bet with your fav to win the world series.. i see cleveland taking it all.. rockies hot streak runs cold after 8 days, plus the youth factor..

WillWalk · Oct 18, 2007

Thanks guys, you're probably right, I'm screwed but it seems like the par should be leverage. I've tried to run it thru but it's exsausting. I think it's something like this:

-> Standing par bet: 300 to win 2000 on BOS for series.

-> Tonights GM 5: bet CLE ML 300
CLE wins = 300 - 300 (loss on standing par) break even - DONE
BOS wins = -300 (par bet now 300 to win 1700) bet continues

-> GM 6: bet CLE ML 600
CLE wins = 600 - 600 (standing par + GM 5 loss) break even - DONE
BOS wins = - 900 (par bet now 300 to win 1100) bet continues

-> GM 7: bet CLE ML 900
CLE wins = 900 - 900 (standing par + GM 5, 6 loss) break even
BOS wins = 300 to win 1100 - 900 win 200

but like I said, I'm not sure at all, fun to try thought. I feel like I'm missing something glaring... f - it, go Sox.