ive been critical of this team at times this year. ive avoided them in the postseason up to this point. but im backing them tonight.
cleveland (+115) over boston
primary reasons for the play:
* it took the books weeks to catch up to the fact that the rockies were playing outstanding baseball. and the same has been true throughout the postseason with cleveland. this is now the 9th time in 9 playoff games that the indians have been an underdog. boston commands a considerable amount of respect, and thats understandable, but sabathia at home shouldnt be anything worse than (-110).
* game four was a huge game for cleveland because it allowed them to face beckett with the pressure on BOSTON, not on cleveland. i have no doubts that beckett will pitch a solid game. but the red sox are not a confident baseball team right now and thats evident in their approach at the plate. if the series were 2-2, facing beckett would be much tougher. but at 3-1, the pressure is on boston. beckett will likely do his part. but will the boston hitters be able to hit around sabathia twice in the span of a week? its doubtful. sabathia has been outstanding at home this year against elite pitchers (dominant when opposing beckett in the regular season, also notched multiple wins vs. santana)
* cleveland seems energized by this crowd. ive been very impressed with the wire to wire energy in the park this postseason. jacobs field was a fairly 'blah' place during the regular season but it seems like all the local doubters (the "it'll never be like 1995 and 1997 again" people) have gotten behind this team and have turned out to again make this a very difficult park to play.
* finally, boston wont have pedro martinez available to come out of the bullpen and rip the indians hearts out in jacobs field. that was one of the guttiest, most impressive efforts ive seen in the last decade in baseball. that boston/cleveland game was just nuts. a truly indelible memory, and im sure it is even more so for boston fans.
i have a shitload of respect for josh beckett. my opinion of him is well known on the forum. nothing will come easily for the indians tonight. but i just dont think boston is in the frame of mind to jump out and seize control of the game. its conceivable that this game gets turned over to the bullpens in a tie game. and then im carrying a (+) money ticket with a hot team and a hot bullpen.
cleveland (+115) over boston
primary reasons for the play:
* it took the books weeks to catch up to the fact that the rockies were playing outstanding baseball. and the same has been true throughout the postseason with cleveland. this is now the 9th time in 9 playoff games that the indians have been an underdog. boston commands a considerable amount of respect, and thats understandable, but sabathia at home shouldnt be anything worse than (-110).
* game four was a huge game for cleveland because it allowed them to face beckett with the pressure on BOSTON, not on cleveland. i have no doubts that beckett will pitch a solid game. but the red sox are not a confident baseball team right now and thats evident in their approach at the plate. if the series were 2-2, facing beckett would be much tougher. but at 3-1, the pressure is on boston. beckett will likely do his part. but will the boston hitters be able to hit around sabathia twice in the span of a week? its doubtful. sabathia has been outstanding at home this year against elite pitchers (dominant when opposing beckett in the regular season, also notched multiple wins vs. santana)
* cleveland seems energized by this crowd. ive been very impressed with the wire to wire energy in the park this postseason. jacobs field was a fairly 'blah' place during the regular season but it seems like all the local doubters (the "it'll never be like 1995 and 1997 again" people) have gotten behind this team and have turned out to again make this a very difficult park to play.
* finally, boston wont have pedro martinez available to come out of the bullpen and rip the indians hearts out in jacobs field. that was one of the guttiest, most impressive efforts ive seen in the last decade in baseball. that boston/cleveland game was just nuts. a truly indelible memory, and im sure it is even more so for boston fans.
i have a shitload of respect for josh beckett. my opinion of him is well known on the forum. nothing will come easily for the indians tonight. but i just dont think boston is in the frame of mind to jump out and seize control of the game. its conceivable that this game gets turned over to the bullpens in a tie game. and then im carrying a (+) money ticket with a hot team and a hot bullpen.
