If you took your AVERAGE sportsfan and had him bet ATS do you think he could hit 50%?

Iceman · Oct 23, 2007

Now I know that 50% dont me anything but it is my whole point so that is what I meant, 50%.

Had this discussion with a guy the other day. He looks at the % of people who bet on a side and says that if a game is highly bet (like 70% on 1 side) than it loses over 55% of the time. I find this a little hard to believe.

Does anyone have this info?

If so it would be a great fade.

I do somewhat agree with him and think the sides that are bet the most win less than 50%, not enough to fade but they fall a little below 50%.

This is why I disagree with people that say that anybody can hit 50%. The lines are shaded just enough to make the AVERAGE fan (keyword here, not the average RX'er who is way smarter than the average fan) hit 48-49% or so. This is why you see the writers in alot of the papers across the U.S hitting a little under 50% ATS.

shdw01 · Oct 23, 2007

If you are right, then knowing the ppl who set lines can be infinitely profitable!

I don't think some could hit 50% flipping a coin.

TheWolf · Oct 23, 2007

THis is actually funny to me. My buddy, a non bettor (and engineer & valedictorian of his HS class I may add), accepted my challenge over the course of a football season a few years ago. After he told me picking winners ATS would be easy!!! I only bet him $50 that he couldnt hit 60% by years end making 6 picks a weekend on either pro or college. He laughed at me saying it would be a breeze. He finished somewhere in the mid-low 40's. Easy money!!!

WVU · Oct 23, 2007

It is all a bell curve Iceman. You have an equal distribution on both sides of the mean which is 50%. So yes it would be very possible for the average sportsfan to hit 50%

Iceman · Oct 23, 2007

WVU said:
It is all a bell curve Iceman. You have an equal distribution on both sides of the mean which is 50%. So yes it would be very possible for the average sportsfan to hit 50%

I am saying if you took 10,000 plays from 100 average fans over 1 year against 1 -110 shop. I would be willing to bet it would be a tad under 50%, not much but around 49% would be my guess.

trytrytry · Oct 23, 2007

higher chance of being 50% than 49% due to the bell curve...its an even distribution. the 70% thing is an urban myth but people like to use it as a sign they are sharp...

MIKEY.1TIME · Oct 23, 2007

IF the lines were setup to make the game even, then 50%would be correct, because you could ultimately flip a coin, and in the long run, you would have to hit 50%. since the average public bettor lives for the favorite and the over, the lines are tainted to offset that, therefore, IF the linesmakers can make the game even with their spread they favor the dogs and unders which means on a coin flip, you would not hit 50%.

bigplay · Oct 23, 2007

About 25 years ago a friend of mine was always telling me he would have bet the Padres (or whoever won a game) yesterday if only I had asked him.

So I gave him the paper every morning and said pick me a winner, I'll make your play of the day everyday for a month. Naturally he got his ass kicked and was apologizing everyday for his bad picks (baseball favs.)

Everything went fine for 3 weeks until my book came in to pay me and the friend figured out I was fading him.

He still brings this up to this day and says it is the reason he never got into gambling.

winbet · Oct 23, 2007

Given enough time ALL would hit 50% ATS, its the Vig that kills them. The same can be said for Bookmakers, they are only kidding themselves they hit over 50%, its all in the Vig. The minute I go over 55% in any category I drop my liabilities accordingly, likewise the opposite way. :drink:

WVU · Oct 23, 2007

Iceman said:
I am saying if you took 10,000 plays from 100 average fans over 1 year against 1 -110 shop. I would be willing to bet it would be a tad under 50%, not much but around 49% would be my guess.

so basically you are saying the public plays would hit less than 50% over 10,000 plays while 10,000 random picks would hit 50%?

I think they both would be closer to 50% than you think.

Doug · Oct 23, 2007

Your "average" guy would parlay ( 2 teamers) and hit exactly 25%.

It would not matter if he parlayed dog&under or fav&over, or the other two ways !

Points don't matter. :missingte:think2::nohead:

Haven't you learned that already from Realcapper.

Iceman · Oct 23, 2007

WVU said:
so basically you are saying the public plays would hit less than 50% over 10,000 plays while 10,000 random picks would hit 50%?

I think they both would be closer to 50% than you think.[/quote

I think it would be real close to 50%. I never said that it wouldnt. I am just saying that your average fan base would hit UNDER 50% for 10,000 plays against -110 lines, a little less than a group of non sports fans who would hit 50%

I am saying 50% to maybe 49% which is only 1% but it would be 100 less winners over 10,000 plays.

bellyputter · Oct 23, 2007

Iceman, I have many friends that pick right around 50% for the year, and they lose between $5,000 and 15,000 a year. Do the math.

Iceman · Oct 23, 2007

bellyputter said:
Iceman, I have many friends that pick right around 50% for the year, and they lose between $5,000 and 15,000 a year. Do the math.

I know what you are saying and I 100% agree with it. I completley understand the math and the whole juice thing.

My thinking is that the average sportsfan is just a tad under 50%. Alot of times you will read where most will say that anyone can hit 50% ATS (which is 100% true) but I am saying that after 10,000 plays it will be under 50% not over.

I have a buddy who is in a work contest with 30 co-workers and they pick all the NFL and 3 college games ATS the spread each week. I will give you their records later in the year combined and I am willing to bet that it will be under 50% (not by much) instead of over 50%.

ASUSundevil · Oct 24, 2007

bellyputter said:
Iceman, I have many friends that pick right around 50% for the year, and they lose between $5,000 and 15,000 a year. Do the math.

Exactly! Around 50% means that you lose in the long run. Those Vegas casinos continue to expand thanks to the 50% bettors. Needless to say they especially love the real losers - 30%-40% guys. They can add a new wing to their hotels with those kind of gamblers.

Doug · Oct 24, 2007

What's the point, anyway ?

It's a mod creating a thread !

What does it matter if its 49.5 , or 50.5 ?

MrJ · Oct 24, 2007

I'm with Ice. Your average bettor does not bet randomly, and not all lines are created equal. A sports book is leaving money on the table by not taking advantage of bettors and their tendencies.

The same can be said for Bookmakers, they are only kidding themselves they hit over 50%

You're saying that those who set the market and are more informed than 99%+ of the entire market are just happy to set a fair line and take -110? We're talking about businesses looking to maximise profits.

If you took your AVERAGE sportsfan and had him bet ATS do you think he could hit 50%?

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